Lets get the economic news out of the way right up front. PCE Index up by 2.6% over 12 months. Same as last month. In spite of the headline which focuses on "core" figure.....NOTHING has changed at all. It is RIDICULOUS how we slice and diced inflation with these "core" figures which omit food and energy. It just distorts the data and reality. I think most people did consume some food and energy last month......and the economy did include food and energy. Bottom line without all the BS distortion of the data.....we are UNCHANGED at 2.6%. Disregarding the MADE UP 2% FED target......we are probably at the lower end of historic inflation during a good economy. US reports solid July consumer spending; core inflation firmer https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-r...NjkhKeeD921JNsfT7Iwaj_I5aN1VhcSltGk41SkL6KN6I (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. consumer spending increased solidly in July while underlying inflation picked up as tariffs on imports raised prices of some goods, but that data will probably not prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates next month against the backdrop of softening labor market conditions. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity, rose 0.5% last month after an upwardly revised 0.4% gain in June, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast spending would rise 0.5% after a previously reported 0.3% advance in June. Consumption is being supported by low layoffs that are underpinning solid wage growth. But President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs on imports are raising costs for businesses, adding another layer of caution that has resulted in employers being reluctant to increase headcount. Employment gains have averaged 35,000 jobs per month over the last three months through July compared to 123,000 during the same period in 2024, the government reported this month. A survey from the Conference Board on Tuesday showed the share of consumers viewing jobs as "hard to get" jumped to a 4-1/2-year high in August. Fed Chair Jerome Powell last week signaled a possible rate cut at the U.S. central bank's September 16-17 policy meeting, in a nod to increasing labor market risks, but also added that inflation remained a threat. The Fed has kept its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range since December. High prices from import duties have been slow to feed through to inflation as businesses are still selling stocks accumulated before the tariffs kicked in. Businesses have also been absorbing some of the costs. Economists expect that situation will soon change. There was an inventory drawdown in the second quarter. Companies from retailers to motor vehicle manufacturers have warned that tariffs were raising their costs, which economists expect would eventually be passed on to consumers. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index increased 0.2% last month after an unrevised 0.3% rise in June, the BEA said. In the 12 months through July, the PCE Price Index rose 2.6%, matching the gain in June. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the PCE Price Index increased 0.3% last month, matching the rise in June. In the 12 months through July, the so-called core inflation figure advanced 2.9% after increasing 2.8% in June. The Fed tracks the PCE price measures for its 2% inflation target." MY COMMENT FIRST....there is absolutely NOTHING in this data to support the gratuitous opinion in this article that tariffs have contributed to anything at all. If anything this data.....since it is UNCHANGED.....shows the LACK of impact of tariffs. We are also seeing solid wage growth.....which can be inflationary. In reality there is NOTHING changed in this report from last month. AND.....all these numbers are exactly as expected.
I see the media fear-mongering the above like crazy today.......especially in the headlines. What a JOKE.....but this sort of "stuff" does have a short term impact on the markets.
Other than the above there is NOTHING going on today. It will simply be a market Friday before a three day weekend and the last market day of August. Some mild SNARKING about NVDA today in the media....but nothing of substance. We are in for a typical meaningless short term day.
