I am not going to spend any real time discussing the corrupt and totally inaccurate economic data that our government puts out. It is ridiculous that in the modern era of computing power and AI....we can not seem to EVER put out accurate data. BUT.....do i really care? NOPE. I dont rely on or use any of this "stuff" as investing indicators or drivers. The last thing I care about as an investor is a lot of BS data put out by a bunch of incompetent......(is there any other kind).....economists. Another US Jobs Markdown Sets Stage for Fed Cut, BLS Criticism https://finance.yahoo.com/news/another-us-jobs-markdown-sets-100000691.html "US job growth in the year through March was probably far less robust than government figures currently show, underscoring a labor market that shifted into a lower gear well before the hiring slowdown this summer. Economists at Wells Fargo & Co., Comerica Bank and Pantheon Macroeconomics expect the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ preliminary benchmark revision on Tuesday to show the March payrolls count was almost 800,000 less than currently estimated — or about 67,000 a month on average."......
As to the....mixed....markets today and this week. It is a big NOTHING week. YES....we will get PPI and CPI data. For me this is simply irrelevant since the FED inflation target is just as corrupt as the economic data. It is a meaningless and made up number. As usual....the only thing I care about short term and long term is the fundamental results of the stocks that I own. S&P 500, Nasdaq rise as Wall Street looks ahead to inflation reality check https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live...ead-to-inflation-reality-check-000205147.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "US stocks edged mostly higher on Monday as investors set their sights on inflation data later this week to provide a reality check on the chances of a jumbo interest-rate cut in September. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) moved up nearly 0.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) traded roughly 0.5% higher. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell 0.1%. The moves come after stocks finished last week on a down note. Wall Street is already looking ahead to key inflation reports later this week: the producer price index (PPI) on Wednesday and the consumer price index (CPI) on Thursday. Together, the data will offer fresh insight into the strength of the economy after last week's weak August jobs print and other soft labor market data, as questions about recession start to emerge. The reports will test markets' total conviction that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates at its meeting next week. The debate now centers on how deep policymakers will cut, amid rising expectations for a bumper "catch-up" move of 50 basis points, rather than 25 basis points. Otherwise, this week's economic calendar is light, though the Bureau of Labor Statistics revision to earlier months' jobs data on Tuesday will likely be more closely watched than usual. In the meantime, political drama is grabbing attention in the run-up to the first full trading week in what is historically the slowest month of the year. In Europe, France's government is on the brink of collapse with its prime minister, Francois Bayrou, expected to lose a parliamentary vote of confidence later in the day. Japan has already lost its prime minister after Shigeru Ishiba resigned on Sunday. The moves pushed two key economies into higher uncertainty as President Trump's tariffs shake up the global trade environment. Read more: The latest on Trump's tariffs Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US would be forced to give rebates if the Supreme Court fails to uphold many of those tariffs. An appeals court found most of them to be illegal and the president had overstepped his authority. With earnings season all but over, the week ahead brings few reports, with Oracle (ORCL), Adobe (ADBE), and Kroger (KR) being the highlights." MY COMMENT Add to the above the soon to happen....in my view.....collapse of the government in the UK with elections to happen sooner than expected and a high probability of a new party taking over with a new prime Minister. Interesting stuff....but not particularly relevant to investors in the USA.
I am hoping that my $10,000 dividend from a family corporation will arrive this week. It was mailed last week. If I can get that money to clear the bank in time I will put it to work in the markets this week. It will become long term money....in my usual stocks and funds. As such....I will simply invest it all at once as soon as it is available. This is the proven probability....versus....waiting for some magic entry point or dollar cost averaging in.
I dont own TSLA...but I am sure many on here do. I dont see much hope for the EV market over the next few years. Consumers are just not interested and once the big government REBATE/CREDIT goes away demand will simply plummet. I have ZERO interest in any auto company.....anyway. However....longer term....TSLA with their robotics and other products is set up nicely to THRIVE. BUT....I am not willing tot own the stock now based on some....HOPE.....for the future years down the road. Tesla market share in U.S. drops to lowest since 2017 as competition heats up https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/08/tesla-market-share-in-us-drops-to-lowest-since-2017.html
A nice BORING market for the rest of this month....regardless of whether it is up or down. There will be little to nothing going on short term. Yes.....the FED is likely to make a cut. Yes.....stocks will muddle along with the usual short term media drama creation. Parents will be focused on the school year and kids activities and soon Halloween.. Football will be heating up. We will soon be at the start of the slow slog to year end. We have about 3.5 months to go. The big averages are looking about.....average....in terms of where they might end up at year end. In line with their long term averages. My.....HOPE....not much of an investment strategy, "hope"........is to end the year somewhere between about +17% and +25%. I would consider that an EPIC year. BUT.....there is still plenty of time for a correction to swoop in and take out returns. There is NOTHING for me to do other than simply sit out the rest of the year....since I dont do much anyway. It is all about being invested in the greatest companies in the world and letting time do its thing. About the only thing I see of any interest between now and the end of the year is EARNINGS.....which will start to ramp up about MID OCTOBER and on into November. personally I am looking for ANOTHER GREAT earnings event to close out the year. AND....I continue to say.....investors are all set up with a GOLDEN opportunity to end the year with a nice BOOM.....if they can stand to just sit and do....NOTHING.
As to the markets......they are now green across all the big averages. GOLD is up nicely as is SILVER. Bitcoin is up. In spite of the recent big cap weakness...stocks in general and markets are just below all time highs. AND.....what I see as the BIG ONE today....which is not being discussed.....the TEN YEAR YIELD is at....4.065%.....way down compared to where it has been for most of the year to date. The BORING life of a long term investor. AND....I continue to be fully invested for the long term as usual.
I am having a nice day so far.....with a big gain. My red stocks continue to be.....COST, HD, and AAPL. I have a busy week ahead of me.....six month dental appointment....annual Dermatology appointment.....the studio on Wednesday starting in the late afternoon and into the evening.....and a BIG art event on Friday. It is a good thing that I dont really have to do anything....or even think about..... my investment account
I have now lost a bit of my prior gain today....but still good if I can avoid the last hour FADE. My red stocks have now evolved to....AAPL and GOOGL.
AND......YEA. My dividend check for $10,000 has arrived. I am off to the bank to get it deposited today....so I can get it to clear ASAP and get it into the markets. I am sure we will see the markets BOOM over the next 5 or so days.....so I will be buying in with this money at a market top. Of course I dont care.....over the long term..... I will be better off to get this money working in my account ASAP.....with NO market timing.
Ok....back from the bank. I see that the markets faded a bit into the close.....I still ended with a nice large.....medium...gain for the day. I also beat the SP500 by 0.45% today. So....my account is higher than the open....always a good day when that happens. At the close I ended with two red stocks....AAPL and GOOGL.
A little.....cheer-leading.....for NVDA. Nvidia: Time To Double Down https://seekingalpha.com/article/48..._en&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Summary Nvidia Corporation's Q2 performance exceeded expectations, driven by surging global demand for AI accelerators, despite ongoing China-related challenges. The AI infrastructure boom continues, with hyperscalers ramping up spending, positioning Nvidia as a primary beneficiary due to its dominant GPU market share. While loss of the Chinese market limits some upside, Nvidia's growth trajectory remains strong, supported by robust demand and new product cycles. My DCF model shows Nvidia is undervalued even with reduced China sales, making NVDA stock an attractive long-term investment with double-digit growth potential. While Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) still hasn’t resumed its operations in China, it nevertheless was able to show a great performance in Q2 and has plenty of growth opportunities to continue to exceed expectations and create additional shareholder value in the years to come. At the same time, as the demand for AI accelerators continues to rise, Nvidia should also be able to mitigate most of the China-related risks, which could prompt its shares to appreciate to new highs in the foreseeable future. The AI Party Is Not Over Yet While Nvidia’s stock is down ~7% since I last covered the company a couple of weeks before the Q2 earnings report was released, I remain bullish about its future. This is because the latest results indicated that despite the China-related issues that Nvidia currently faces, the company still has numerous opportunities to continue to grow its business at a double-digit rate for years to come. In Q2, Nvidia’s revenues already increased by an impressive 55.6% Y/Y to $46.74 billion and were above the expectations by $610 million. Considering that the demand for Nvidia’s flagship AI accelerators from the Blackwell series significantly outstrips supply and the revenues that the Blackwell platform generated in Q2 increased by 17% Q/Q, it’s likely that the company will continue to show an exceptional performance in the following quarters. More importantly, despite all the talk about the AI bubble, there are no signs that the major hyperscalers are going to decrease their capital expenditures anytime soon. The major tech businesses have already spent $155 billion on expanding their AI capabilities in 2025, and their spending this year is forecasted to reach more than $400 billion. At the same time, Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang noted in the recent earnings call that the AI infrastructure spend could reach $3 trillion to $4 trillion by the end of the current decade. If that turns out to be the case, then that’s great news for Nvidia. After all, the company already controls 92% of the GPU data center market, while Jensen Huang, in the same call, said that out of around $50 billion to $60 billion that’s spent on building a gigawatt AI factory, about $35 billion is spent on Nvidia’s products. This shows that Nvidia is one of the biggest beneficiaries of the ongoing AI revolution, and that’s unlikely to change anytime soon. That’s why it’s also not a surprise that the company’s outlook for the following quarter was also above the consensus, given the impressive ongoing demand for its chips. In Q3, Nvidia expects to generate $54 billion in revenues, which is above the previous estimates of around $52.76 billion. Considering this, it’s safe to say that the AI party is not over yet, and Nvidia still has plenty of opportunities to expand its business in the years to come. The Loss of China Limits The Overall Upside My latest article on Nvidia from last month mostly focused on the opportunities that the Chinese market offered to the company. Unfortunately, at this point, it has become obvious that it’s going to be much harder for Nvidia to reenter the Chinese market and recoup the $15 billion in lost sales there. While Nvidia was able to recently receive the first American licenses to export its H20 chips, which were made specifically for China, the Chinese regulators ordered the halt of imports of those chips into the country on security concerns. Shortly after, Nvidia itself halted its work on H20 chips, and it’s unknown what’s going to happen next at this point. There are already reports that the demand for Nvidia’s chips in China remains significant despite the regulatory ruling that stopped direct imports of H20 chips into the country. However, if Beijing continues to bet on the development of the domestic AI chipmakers and doesn’t change its stance regarding the imports of Nvidia’s chips, then that demand is not going to materialize into sales anytime soon. Considering that Jensen Huang, in the latest earnings call, named China as a $50 billion opportunity, Nvidia’s lack of presence there is certainly going to limit the company’s overall upside. Nvidia’s Stock Remains An Attractive Investment One thing that’s important to remember is that Nvidia was able to grow aggressively in recent quarters even without generating sales in China. Therefore, while the loss of the Chinese market will certainly limit the overall upside, Nvidia nevertheless has plenty of opportunities to continue to grow at an aggressive double-digit rate and create additional shareholder value along the way. While before the release of the latest earnings report, I assumed that Nvidia’s revenue in the current fiscal year would be around $215 billion, in part thanks to the rise of sales in China, it’s obvious at this point that that’s not going to happen. The latest consensus is that the revenues in FY26 will be only around $206 billion. In my updated discounted cash flow model below, I assume ~$208 billion in revenues in FY26. This is because there’s a potential that even without China, Nvidia will be able to exceed expectations in Q3 and Q4. This, in turn, would prompt the street to revise its own estimates as it had in the past following the previous successful earnings report. In all the other years, the revenue growth rate is mostly unchanged since Nvidia will still have plenty of opportunities to scale its business even without access to the Chinese market. In the updated model, I also assume a slightly higher EBIT margin in the future in comparison to the previous years. This is because the AI accelerators from the upcoming Rubin series are expected to enter volume production next year and could help Nvidia improve its performance even more in the not-so-distant future. The assumed tax rate in the model stands at 16.5%, which is similar to Nvidia’s latest outlook. The assumptions for the remaining metrics mostly remained the same as before and are not that far away from the company’s historical performance. Nvidia's DCF Model (Historical Data: Seeking Alpha, Assumptions: Author) This model shows that Nvidia’s fair value is $190.43 per share, which is below the previous estimates of $195.54 per share from the previous model. This is because the assumed revenue growth rate for the current fiscal year has decreased mostly due to Nvidia’s inability to penetrate the Chinese market for now. However, even under the revised assumptions, Nvidia remains undervalued and is a great investment in my opinion. Nvidia's DCF Model (Historical Data: Seeking Alpha, Assumptions: Author) The Bottom Line While the China-related issues have affected the latest outlook and disappointed some shareholders, Nvidia remains a solid long-term investment thanks to its dominant position in the ever-expanding AI accelerator market. Thanks to the rising demand for advanced chips across the globe, the company should be able to mitigate some of the China-related risks and continue to grow at a double-digit rate for years to come. Add to this the fact that Nvidia is also undervalued and offers a decent upside at the current price, and it makes sense to remain optimistic about its future." MY COMMENT SCREW CHINA. If they dont want the NVDA products...that is their problem. I really doubt that they will refuse these products for long. Sooner or later the dam will break.....or.....the Chinese will simply end up buying more advanced NVDA products illegally. One way or another NVDA will get their business and their money. As to China.....I am seeing more and more evidence that their economy is in real trouble......."BIG TROUBLE IN LITTLE CHINA".....as classic movie fans might say. They seem to be caught up in a big time DEFLATIONARY SPIRAL. Time will tell if it is a.....death spiral....that will last for decades.....just like we saw with Japan. They are a CLASSIC example of the total failure of government control of the economy and business.......and....trying to "central plan" the economy.
I dont really agree with this DOUR view...I think the economy is stronger at the local level than the Wall Street ELITES know and think. BUT......are you paying attention.....FED? You got us into this mess with your little political hissy-fit....refusing to consider a rate cut and abandoning your data dependent stance. NOW.....STFU....and give us 2-3 rate cuts. Goldman Sachs chief economist: US economy is in 'stall speed' https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold...NjkhKeeD921JNsfT7Iwaj_I5aN1VhcSltGk41SkL6KN6I
AND....by the way....the NASDAQ closed at an all time....RECORD HIGH....today. AND....with many of the big cap tech stocks off their highs....there is a HUGE runway stretching out ahead of us for the rest of the year. I will be.....RIDING THE WAVE.
