The Long Term Investor

This investment is an interesting event. On the surface it looks like a PLUS for NVDA.....but here is some analysis of all the unknowns.

More questions than answers in Nvidia's $100 billion OpenAI deal

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysis-more-questions-answers-nvidias-100531932.html

 

YEAH RIGHT......what MORON is going to trust China to hold their gold reserves?

Gold Hits Fresh Record as Traders Weigh China Reserves, Fed Cuts

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-reaches-fresh-record-rate-235705197.html

"Gold climbed to a fresh record, with traders weighing China’s plan to become a custodian of foreign sovereign gold reserves in a bid to strengthen its standing in the global bullion market."

 

I got an early start on some posting today since I have to leave about 10:00 to head out to a noon board meeting. I am one of the board of directors for a state-wide art organization. My second board position. My other board position is as a board member for the family oil and gas......mineral rights corporation.

As to the family corp....right now we are in the middle of a voting process to decide whether or not to liquidate all corporate assets and dissolve the corporation. We have a special meeting on this issue set for the first week of October and are in the process of taking shareholder votes by proxy on this issue right now.

The current vote count.....255 votes YES......ZERO votes NO. There are still 45 votes outstanding...we expect most....if not all.....of them will come in as YES votes. A successful vote only requires a majority which would be 151 YES votes. There are 300 shares total and each shareholders get one vote per share.

When the corporation was set up by my mom and her four siblings in the early 1960's.....each sibling got 60 shares. My sister and I own our families 60 shares now.....20% of the company.

 

I see MUCH content of this deal today. Here is more on how it happened and where it is headed. A very fluid situation....in terms of the details.....that are available to investors and the public.

Altman, Huang and the last-minute negotiations that sealed the $100 billion OpenAI-Nvidia deal

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/23/alt...at-sealed-100-billion-openai-nvidia-deal.html

 

I dont normally post stuff about or from Cramer....but when it comes to long term investing versus trading....here you go.

As Apple and Nvidia soar, Jim Cramer makes the case for owning individual stocks

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/22/as-...jim-cramer-says-to-own-individual-stocks.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Key Points

• CNBC’s Jim Cramer opined on two of his favorite long-term holdings, Apple and Nvidia.
• He suggested their continued success shows that it’s worthwhile to stick with good-quality stocks.
• “As Nvidia and Apple proved once again today, individual stocks are where the biggest money is,” he said.

CNBC’s Jim Cramer opined on two of his favorite long-term holdings — Apple
and Nvidia— and suggested their continued success shows that it’s worthwhile to stick with good-quality growth stocks instead of trading in and out of them.

“As Nvidia and Apple proved once again today, individual stocks are where the biggest money is,” he said. “Provided you’ve got the fortitude to stick around and you aren’t addicted to buying high and selling low – the ultimate result of endless trading.”

The indexes ripped higher on Monday to close at record highs, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbing 0.14%, the S&P 500 gaining 0.44% and the Nasdaq Composite adding 0.70%. Nvidia led stocks higher after the semiconductor giant revealed it would invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI as part of the data center buildout. Investors celebrated the commitment as a good sign about the future of artificial intelligence. Apple stock also saw gains on Monday after the launch of the newest line of iPhones, and analysts indicated that demand is strong.

Nvidia hit a new 52-week high to finish up 3.93%, while Apple closed up 4.31%.

Cramer suggested some investors had been feeling pessimistic about Apple, worried about the originality of the iPhone 17, how tariffs might impact sales, demand for products in China, as well as the company’s AI strategy. Cramer said it seems each of these fears “is proving to be untrue” so far, sharing his long-held belief in the uniqueness of the company and its technology. Cramer also referenced Monday comments from outgoing T-Mobile

CEO Mike Sievert, who said his company’s iPhone sales are at “all-time record highs.”

Nvidia, too, had been surrounded with negative sentiments, Cramer continued, especially about its business in China as tensions between the country and the U.S. intensify. He highlighted Nvidia’s huge deal with OpenAI, saying he thinks the investment will pay off for the company.

“It’s incredibly difficult to make money in any market if all you’re going to do is trade,” Cramer said.

Nvidia declined to comment. Apple did not immediately respond to request for comment."

MY COMMENT

The age old question.....I can see Clint Eastwood asking......."are you an investor or a trader".

 

NOW.....we wait for the reality of the open.....and endure the rest of the day.

 

BIG WOW.....sliver up to $44.37. Gold is at a new high of $3818.

I love to see my hoard of shiny metal going up in value. But the reality is....it just sits there in a big safe.....off site.....and is still just lumps of metal. My hoard is at about $110,000 right now....an all time high.

 

How I wish the FED and POWELL would just STFU....and go away. Powell literally tanked the markets today. The SP500 and Dow hit intra-day highs and were green till he started to open his big mouth.

As for me....a big loss today....about the same as my gain yesterday. One step forward.....one step back. I also got beat by the SP500 today by 0.90%.

 

As to the above...here you go.

Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq slide after Powell flags Fed's challenge, 'highly valued' stocks

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live...challenge-highly-valued-stocks-174834474.html

 

As to my one green stock today...apparently this is why:

Boeing's defense and space unit partners with Palantir for AI adoption

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/boeings-defense-space-unit-partners-201334109.html

"Boeing has partnered with Palantir Technologies to use the software firm's AI solutions platform across the planemaker's defense and space unit, the companies said on Tuesday.

The tie-up will help Boeing standardize data analytics across its production lines. Boeing has also tapped Palantir to supply AI tools for several classified projects aimed at supporting sensitive military missions.".......

 

I am too lazy to post and bold this little article. It seems that most of the financial media is IGNORING it anyway. it does not fit in with all the fear-mongering over the Powell talk today...so out it goes....you dont need to hear about this.

Business growth slows in September, but selling price inflation also cools

https://www.spglobal.com/marketinte...selling-price-inflation-also-cools-Sep25.html

 

Yes Road....I have seen the circular articles on NVDA. I DONT BUY IT.

First.....they are getting $100BILLION worth of shares in OpenAI. A stake that will grow massively and be worth a fortune if there is ever an IPO. So right away....they got value for their money.

Second....NVDA will benefit since OpenAI will use that money to buy NVDA chips.....presumably at a price that will generate a....PROFIT....for NVDA. Creating a massively profitable deal for NVDA.

Third....they are locking in one of the largest chip customers in the world....to their business.

I would call that a....win, win, win, win.

 

A nice little article.

Even the very rich should invest in broad-market index funds — here’s why
What we can learn from the Forbes list of the 400 richest Americans


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/e...rket-index-funds-heres-why-38afd5b4?st=2mC2GB

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"There’s no doubt that the 400 richest Americans are coming off a very good 12 months — but over the last decade, they would have done even better had they invested in a broad-market index fund.

This provides a powerful investment lesson to the rest of us. Contrary to the belief that the ultrawealthy have some unique investment skills that enable them to regularly beat the stock market, even they, on average, don’t beat the stock market.

These are just some of the implications of the newly released 2025 edition of the Forbes 400 list. The combined wealth of the 400 richest Americans rose $1.2 billion over the 12 months through early September — a gain of approximately 22%, the list said. That’s better than the comparable 16% return of the S&P 500
on a total-return basis. Nevertheless, over the last nine years, the combined wealth of these richest Americans has cumulatively appreciated at a rate that is approximately 1.5 annualized percentage points lower than the S&P 500 . (See accompanying chart.)


Furthermore, if anything, these calculations overstate the performance of these ultrawealthy Americans. That’s because the reported returns suffer from survivorship bias: Since each column in the chart plots the trailing 12-month return of that year’s list of richest Americans, it doesn’t reflect the returns of those on the prior year’s list who dropped off because of relatively poor performance.

It’s important to point out the below-market performance of the richest Americans not to criticize their investment abilities, but to make a broader point about producing great wealth. A great disservice has been done to recent generations in leading them to believe that the stock market is the engine for creating that level of uberwealth. It isn’t. With only a few very rare exceptions, members of the Forbes 400 list made their fortunes elsewhere, and then turned to the stock market to help maintain their fortunes’ inflation-adjusted value into the future.

We know that because Forbes grades members of the 400 list according to the sources of their fortunes, finding over the years that around 2 out of 3 of them fall into the “self-made” category.

Another way of making this point is to calculate what would be needed to make it onto the Forbes 400 list through the stock market alone. The minimum necessary to make this year’s list is $3.8 billion. Imagine a hypothetical 25-year-old putting a lump sum into the stock market, who for the subsequent 40 years is able to match the U.S. equity market’s 7.1% annualized total return since 1793 (according to Edward McQuarrie, an emeritus professor at Santa Clara University). Given these assumptions, this hypothetical investor would need to invest at age 25 a lump sum of $244 million to qualify for the Forbes 400 list when he is 65, 40 years hence.

In other words, to have any realistic chance of making it onto the Forbes 400 list through putting a lump sum in the stock market, a person must already have a fortune to begin with. And though there are cases of that happening, it’s becoming increasingly rare, according to research from Steve Kaplan of the University of Chicago and Joshua Rauh of Stanford University. In a study entitled “Family, Education, and Sources of Wealth Among the Richest Americans,” the professors found that most billionaires are not heirs. Specifically, they found that the percentage of people on the Forbes 400 list coming from rich families has been cut in half since the early 1980s.

The bottom line? To create great wealth, go out and invent a product or create a service that the world needs. Once you do that, the stock market will be there for you to invest the great fortune you have amassed."

MY COMMENT

with what I have seen in my lifetime....I agree.

 

Thanks.....BigBear.

Please be sure to get Gil to address the issue of new people not being able to join the site. We need to be able to...GROW......to have a healthy site.

 

a DULL and flat day for me so far......four stocks up and four down last I looked.

This is good to see:

US new home sales surge in August

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-home-sales-surge-august-141358216.html

 

The early market today.

Nasdaq, Dow, S&P 500 rise as Alibaba spreads AI cheer

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live...se-as-alibaba-spreads-ai-cheer-230354917.html


(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"US stocks rose on Wednesday, eyeing a return to their record-setting run as Alibaba's (BABA) spending plans lifted hopes for a continuation of the AI-fueled tech rally.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) moved up nearly 0.3%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) nudged around 0.2% higher

Tech stocks are shaping up for a slight comeback, after the major gauges snapped a win streak on Tuesday amid losses for "Magnificent Seven" megacaps.

Alibaba stock jumped over 8% in early trading as investors welcomed the Chinese tech giant's pledge to hike its AI spending beyond its original $50 billion target. The boost is needed for Alibaba to keep pace as global investment in AI surges to $4 trillion, its CEO said. At the same time, Micron's stronger-than-expected quarterly earnings delivered another positive signal for the AI trade, though shares in the memory chipmaker — which supplies semiconductors for Nvidia's (NVDA) AI systems — fell Wednesday.

Debate over the prospects for US interest-rate cuts — the big focus for markets right now — appeared to keep a lid on gains. Comments from Federal Reserve officials this week have hinted at growing disagreement on what the path of policy should be, given the cracks showing in the labor market.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated in a speech on Tuesday that the central bank would proceed cautiously on further rate cuts, even as he left the door open to more easing. He also described stocks as "fairly highly valued."

Wall Street is now counting down to the release of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, on Friday. Markets are watching for reassurance that inflation isn't posing a threat to high expectations for two more rate cuts this year.

Before that, updates on weekly mortgage applications and August home sales on Wednesday will provide a window into the housing market and the US economy more broadly."

MY COMMENT

For me PERSONALLY.....Alibaba is something I would NEVER buy. A company controlled by the worlds most brutal communist dictatorship. Of course under Chinese law it is illegal for me to own REAL shares in the company.

 

A strong indication of what is to come.....for better or worse.

AI can now pass the hardest level of the CFA exam in a matter of minutes

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/24/ai-cfa-exam-pass-minutes-study.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Key Points

• Several artificial intelligence models are now advanced enough to pass the three-part chartered financial analyst exam, even the most difficult Level III test.
• Previous research, particularly from two years ago, had found AI could clear Levels I and II of the exam, but it struggled with Level III, due to the essay questions.
• The new study was developed by researchers from New York University Stern School of Business and GoodFin, an AI-powered wealth-management platform.

For humans to pass the prestigious, three-part chartered financial analyst exam, it typically takes around 1,000 hours of studying over the course of several years. New research found that the technology underpinning a slew of artificial intelligence models is now advanced enough to pass even the most difficult – Level III – mock exams in a matter of minutes.

The new study – developed by researchers from New York University Stern School of Business and GoodFin, an AI-powered wealth-management platform – evaluated 23 large language models on their ability to answer multiple choice and essay questions on mock CFA Level III exams. They found frontier reasoning models, including o4-mini, Gemini 2.5 Pro, and Claude Opus, were able to use “chain-of-thought prompting” to successfully pass.

Previous research, particularly from two years ago, had found AI could clear Levels I and II of the exam, but it struggled with Level III, due to the essay questions. However, the technology has evolved so rapidly that the researchers wanted to know whether the models could handle, “specialized, high-stakes analytical reasoning required for professional financial decision-making.” The third CFA exam is primarily focused on portfolio management and wealth planning.

“I think there’s absolutely a future where this technology transforms the industry,” said Anna Joo Fee, founder and CEO of GoodFin, which contributed to – but did not pay for – the research.

Still, Fee said she does not think the AI will ultimately replace the CFA.

“There are things like context and intent that are hard for the machine to assess right now,” Fee said. “That’s where a human shines, in understanding your body language and cues.”"

MY COMMENT

We are facing a very opaque future.....us little humans.