I am looking good right now with a nice gain. BUT....there is an hour to go and we have to avoid the late day.....FADE.
Now basically a....penny stock. The consumer has spoken. I cant believe these products along with all the oat milk, almond milk, and all the other FAKE milks. On one hand their target and most reliable consumers constantly rail against...."processed foods". And.....at the same time..... they are among the best customers for these products......the MOST OVER-PROCESSED, FAKE,...... so called "food" items...... in the grocery store. Full of chemicals, added minerals and vitamins, and additives to try to make something that is NOT meat or milk.......into something that will appeal to the....."natural food" and "organic food"....people. To me....an example of a crazy contradiction.....these products are about as far as you can get from...."natural" or "organic".....totally processed. I dont care what anyone wants to eat.....it is a free country. Just dont push your needs and wants on me. Beyond Meat stock sinks to all-time low after it launches convertible debt exchange offer https://finance.yahoo.com/news/beyond-meat-stock-sinks-time-181126546.html I have never owned this stock....but if I did......I would have sold way before now. If I had any now.....I would sell NOW before it goes under...it is not looking good for this company.
If there was ever a reason for a government shut-down....this is it. It would be worth it to get away from all the distorted and screwed up data from the BLS. Labor Dept. won’t release Friday’s key jobs report, other data if government shuts down https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/29/bls...ys-key-jobs-report-in-case-of-a-shutdown.html "Key Points The Labor Department is preparing for what would amount to a news and data blackout should the U.S. government suspend operations. The department has several key reports upcoming that will provide important clues about the direction of the economy and inform Fed policymakers ahead of their next meeting in October." KIND OF....like if the FED went on an extended black-out with no meetings and absolutely no media talking....would anyone really care?
Can you believe it....after being in the red all day....COST...decided to join the green at the end of the day. Five stocks UP and three DOWN today for me. A good strong medium gain for me....borderline big...but not quite. PUS....a nice beat on the SP500 today by....0.63%. The SP500 is up by 13.51% YTD. EPIC....way above the annual norm for having three months left in the year. We are on track....with a little luck to hit........15% to 18%....on the SP500 for 2025. AMAZING considering that the SP500 has done the following lately: 2019.....+31.44% 2020.....+18.39% 2021.....+28.99% 2022.....(-18.11%) 2023.....+24.43% 2024.....+24.01% My magic number for long term is....SEVEN YEARS. If we can continue like this on the SP500 for 2025....it will be a significant BEAT of the historic average return for the SP500. Depending on how we close out 2025....we could be looking at a seven year time span of the SP500 averaging.....+18% or higher.
One day left in the dreaded month of....September. YEP....the worst month for stocks. As of the close today: "The S&P 500 has increased 3% this month, while the Dow has risen 1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq has been the outperformer with a 5% rally." https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/28/stock-market-today-live-updates.html So much for market superstition.
There was mention of this stock the other day a few posts back....here you go. CoreWeave Inks $14 Billion Meta Deal, Highlighting AI Demand https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coreweave-inks-14-billion-meta-123439081.html "CoreWeave Inc. has signed a deal to supply Meta Platforms Inc. with as much as $14.2 billion worth of computing power, underscoring the massive costs of developing and running advanced AI models." ........."CoreWeave will provide the social media giant access to Nvidia Corp.’s latest GB300 systems, he said. Meta didn’t provide comment." MY COMMENT I dont own or care about CoreWeave...but....I do like this news for my NVDA.
I HATE.....the "loaded" word....."careens".... in this headline. Just media BS. I have lived through many, many, many of these little shut-downs. the impact is NOTHING. It is all a big bunch of hot air....being spouted by the media and politicians.....two groups that investors should IGNORE. I heard someone earlier asking....."what is this going to do to the economy". My answer.....NOTHING. The government is not critical to the economy. In fact the economy is probably better off with government shut down. Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq slip as US careens toward first government shutdown in 7 years https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live...government-shutdown-in-7-years-133206143.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "US stocks faltered on Tuesday as investors weighed the likely fallout of President Trump's latest tariff blitz and the US government careened toward its first shutdown in seven years. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) and the S&P 500 (^GSPC) both dropped roughly 0.1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) also slipped about 0.1%, coming off modest closing gains on Wall Street. Trump sent out a fresh flurry of tariffs on lumber, timber, and certain types of furniture late Monday, hot on the heels of a threat of levies on foreign-made movies and last week's plan to put 100% duties on branded drugs. Concerns are growing about the impact on the global economy from Trump's ever-expanding trade offensive, after new data showed China and Japan's factories are still caught in a slump. Meanwhile, markets are bracing for a government shutdown after Trump and Republicans met with Democrats in the Oval Office on Monday but failed to strike a deal to avert a halt to funding. "I think we're headed to a shutdown," Vice President JD Vance said after the meeting. Lawmakers have until 12:01 a.m. ET Wednesday to reach a last-gasp agreement or see the first stoppage since 2019. Odds of a shutdown are near 85%, according to Polymarket. For Wall Street, the concern is that the government's economic data releases will halt during a stoppage. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will "completely cease operations" if it happens, the Department of Labor said, likely delaying the release of Friday's nonfarm payrolls report among other top-tier data. That September jobs report is pivotal to the Federal Reserve's policy thinking, with the health of the labor market in high focus after mixed economic readings and apparent division at the Fed shook faith in two more rate cuts this year. A JOLTS update on September job openings due Tuesday will be closely watched, as it could be the last labor market insight from BLS for some time. Data on consumer confidence is also on the docket."" MY COMMENT WOW....we might not get the BLS data......who cares. It is useless anyway. The traders.....will not have this to short term trade off of.....poor babies. Somehow the world will simply go on as usual.....with the shutdown. In fact most people will not notice a thing.
More good news for NVDA. Citigroup forecasts Big Tech's AI spending to cross $2.8 trillion by 2029 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/citigroup-forecasts-big-techs-ai-111915251.html
It is a mixed market today. I see a few articles about the shut-down....but not as many as expected. Basically a NON-EVENT. Just another example of political performance art.....that we have to wait through and move on from.
As to the above....I have a gain right now on the backs of three stocks.....PLTR, NVDA, and AAPL. I will take it and hope that it builds from here. That is my investment strategy today......."HOPE". Not the best strategy but short term that is it.
I think this story is FUNNY. Not because of the crime or because of any impact on victims....outside banking and the so called "professionals". Here we have one of those....business and investing "professionals".....JPMorgan Chase.....getting screwed.....or I should say screwing itself. Why? "JPMorgan, eager to edge out rivals bidding for the startup, failed to confirm that Frank actually had millions of customers before shelling out $175 million for the company." Seems like a pretty basic screw up for a company that is "SUPPOSEDLY" a top banking and investing professional. It always amazes me to see how much of an EMPTY SUIT....these big companies can be. Startup founder Charlie Javice sentenced to 7 years in prison for defrauding JPMorgan Chase https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/29/jpmorgan-chase-frank-charlie-javice-sentencing.html OF course.....this criminal...is full of remorse and crying for mercy. BUT not too long ago....here is her real character: "The week before selling her company to JPMorgan, Javice directed an employee to fabricate millions of users. When the employee declined, Javice reassured him, according to testimony given earlier this year." This is why I am not a big buyer of new companies....I prefer the more proven big cap growth companies.
HERE is the JOLTS data. MORE support for rate cuts going forward. Consumer confidence is lower than expected as Wall Street braces for shutdown data blackout https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/30/con...street-braces-for-shutdown-data-blackout.html "Key Points The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index registered a 94.2 reading, off 3.6 points from the August reading and below the Dow Jones estimate for 96.0. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said job openings totaled 7.23 million, up 19,000 from July though down 422,000 from a year ago." Basically ignore the headline and the consumer.....BS. The real component of this data is the jobs data which shows more slowing in the labor markets. A good thing for those of us that want to see more rate cuts. "The bureau’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover report, which Federal Reserve officials watch closely to gauge labor market slack, showed a slower pace in both hiring and total separations. Quits fell by 75,000 for a category looked at as a gauge of worker confidence for finding new jobs after leaving their present one."
That is about all that I see going on so far today. I am off to take one of my cars in for a change out of the brake fluid. A perfect day to do nothing and wait for the markets to do what they want to do. We are STILL sitting right on the cusp of a market move UP. But we are lingering right now.
just got back from taking the car and going to lunch. AND...I find a nice gain in my account..compliments of....MSFT, COST, PLTR, and NVDA. I just have to hang onto this money for a couple more hours.
MORE on the JOLTS data. Looks good to me as an investor. Frozen job market shows little sign of thawing Job openings were roughly unchanged in August, while the hiring and quit rates declined. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/frozen-job-market-shows-little-sign-of-thawing-145529105.html
Here is another release from last week. AGAIN....looking very good. U.S. GDP expanded at a strong 3.8% pace in second-quarter revision https://www.cbsnews.com/news/gdp-q2-second-quarter-revision-3-8-percent-growth/ (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The U.S. economy grew at a strong 3.8% annualized pace in the second quarter, the government reported Thursday in its final revision of gross domestic product data for April through June. U.S. GDP — the nation's output of goods and services — rebounded in the spring from a 0.6% first-quarter drop caused by fallout from President Donald Trump's trade wars, the Commerce Department said. The department had previously estimated second-quarter growth at 3.3%, and forecasters had expected a repeat of that figure. Consumer spending buoyed the economy in the second quarter, rising at a 2.5% pace, up from 0.6% in the first quarter and well above the 1.6% the government previously estimated. The data provides evidence that Americans continued to open their wallets despite broader economic headwinds such as tariffs and a slowing job market, economists notThiagamoorthsenior economist at BMO, said in a Thursday report. "Today's run of data suggest that the economy — which strongly rebounded after the pandemic recession — continues to hold up well, even as we anticipate some slowdown ahead." Spending on services advanced at a 2.6% annual pace, more than double the government's previous estimate of 1.2%. The stronger-than-expected GDP data provides evidence that the economy remains on a solid footing, which may dampen the Federal Reserve's enthusiasm for additional rate cuts in 2025 and early 2026, economists noted. The central bank last week issued its first rate cut of 2025 when it reduced its benchmark rate by one-quarter point, with the Fed penciling in two additional cuts in 2025. When announcing the rate cut last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell pointed to a weakening labor market as prompting the move. Because rate reductions make it cheaper for businesses to borrow and expand, they can help bolster hiring and support the labor market. "The Fed's September dot plot indicated that additional rate cuts are likely at their next two decisions in late October and December, but the case for back-to-back cuts is no slam dunk" after today's GDP data, said Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank, in a Thursday email. Fed officials will be watching even more closely than unusual when their favorite inflation gauge — the Commerce Department's personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index — comes out Friday. Rebound from first quarter The first-quarter GDP drop, the first retreat of the U.S. economy in three years, was mainly caused by a surge in imports — which are subtracted from GDP — as businesses hurried to bring in foreign goods before Trump could impose sweeping taxes on them. That trend reversed as expected in the second quarter: Imports fell at a 29.3% pace, boosting April-June growth by more than 5 percentage points. A category within the GDP data that measures the economy's underlying strength came in stronger than previously reported as well, growing 2.9% from April-June, up from 1.9% in the first quarter and in the government's previous estimate. This category includes consumer spending and private investment, but excludes volatile items like exports, inventories and government spending. But private investment fell, including a 5.1% drop in residential investment. Declining business inventories took more than 3.4 percentage points off second-quarter growth. Spending and investment by the federal government fell at a 5.3% annual pace on top of a 5.6% drop in the first quarter. Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Santander, noted that GDP growth averaged 1.6% in the first half of 2025 and consumer spending 1.5% — "not great but much better than initially thought.'' Since returning to the White House, Mr. Trump has added double-digit taxes — tariffs — on imports from almost every country and targeted specific products for tariffs, including steel, aluminum and autos. The president sees tariffs as a way to protect American industry, lure factories back to the U.S. and to help pay for the tax cuts he signed into law July 4. Thursday's GDP report was the Commerce Department's third and final look at second-quarter economic growth. It will release its initial estimate of July-September growth on Oct. 30. Forecasters surveyed by the data firm FactSet currently expect GDP growth to slow to an annual pace of just 1.5% in the third quarter." MY COMMENT I would be EXTREMELY surprised to see third quarter GDP at the 1.5% expectation above. i believe it will be SIGNIFICANTLY higher....just based on my day to day activities out there among real people in the real economy. LOL.....the poor "experts".....never right no matter how much computing power and AI power they have at their finger-tips. It seems to me like their problem is a little too much....wishful-thinking.
An ALL RED market today for the big averages. I am not going to look at my account again till the close....but if I can hold on I will end with a very nice strong medium gain today. When I looked earlier my portfolio was at a new intra-day.....ALL TIME HIGH.
AMAZING....what this company is doing.....YET....at the same time the share price continues to sit right around their all time high. The MOST DISRESPECTED stock in the world. AND....at this point probably the greatest runway stretching out ahead of the stock over the next 1-3 years....in history. Nvidia’s market cap tops $4.5 trillion after string of AI infrastructure deals https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/30/nvi...int5-trillion-on-ai-infrastructure-deals.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what i consider important content) "Key Points Nvidia shares climbed almost 3% to a record on Tuesday, making the chipmaker the first company to hit a $4.5 trillion market cap. Nvidia’s gains come during a busy week of deal-making for the company, including a planned investment in OpenAI of up to $100 billion. Nvidia shares reached a fresh record on Tuesday, climbing almost 3% and lifting the chipmaker’s market cap past $4.5 trillion. The stock is now up about 39% for the year, and continues to attract investors as Nvidia steps up its pace of deal-making, cementing its position at the center of the artificial intelligence boom. OpenAI said last week that Nvidia would take an equity stake worth up to $100 billion in the AI startup, and would build hundreds of billions of dollars worth of data centers filled with Nvidia graphics processing units. OpenAI then announced five massive new data centers with Oracle that are expected to be filled with hundreds of thousands of GPUs. The whole “Stargate” project will cost $500 billion, the companies said. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says Nvidia’s products comprise about 70% of the spending on a new AI data center. Analysts at Citi on Tuesday raised their price target on Nvidia from $200 to $210, citing an increased forecast for AI infrastructure spending after the OpenAI announcements. “We believe OpenAI came to Nvidia asking for help as Nvidia has a very compelling product, and as the number of users and compute being consumed per user basis is growing,” Citi analyst Atif Malik wrote in the note. OpenAI is far from alone, as Meta, Google and others are also dramatically ramping up their infrastructure spending. CoreWeave, a cloud provider that includes Nvidia as a large shareholder, said Tuesday it had reached a deal to supply Meta with $14.2 billion in AI infrastructure services. Nvidia’s stock is outperforming all of its megacap peers so far this year except for chipmaker Broadcom, which is up about 40%, similarly boosted by OpenAI." MY COMMENT This stock should by all accounts....be much higher than it is. What this company is doing is HISTORIC in terms of stock market and earnings history. I heard a guest on a business show the other day saying that the stock is an.......obvious buy....even for new investors that dont own it. I have to agree. There is MASSIVE room to run in this stock. BUT.....it does take BELIEF in what the company is doing and the economy over the next 1-3 years. AND....as to the above...I am NOT RECOMMENDING that anyone buy this stock. I DONT MAKE STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS IN HERE. Do your own research in light of your personal investing plan and risk tolerance.
WELL.....looks like the SP500 just turned GREEN. Will wonders ever cease. Someone decided to buy something today....in spite of the scary government shut-down. As for me I continue to RIDE THE WAVE. It is a massive wave right now......and they are lined up behind me for as far as I can see. It will be a WILD RIDE.....but I am up for it. It is not like I have a choice....since I continue to be fully invested for the long term as usual. AND......this thread documents the above....for the PAST SEVEN YEARS. My seven year anniversary on here will be in a few days on....October 2. I am too lazy to do it....but I would be interested to see my record of your end gain or loss for all of those years. I am sure it would show the....POWER OF LONG TERM INVESTING.
NO CHANGES........AS USUAL: SO....here is my current portfolio of....NINE....stocks. The UPDATED Portfolio Model.......NOT as investment advice.....just as a disclosure of my personal BIAS and my thinking on how to structure a long term portfolio. "I am once again posting my PORTFOLIO MODEL. My initial criteria to start the process to consider a business are.......BIG CAP, AMERICAN, DIVIDEND PAYING, GREAT MANAGEMENT, ICONIC PRODUCT, WORLD WIDE LEADER IN THEIR FIELD, LONG TERM HORIZON, etc, etc, etc. PORTFOLIO MODEL "Here is my "PORTFOLIO MODEL" for all accounts managed which is the basis for MUCH of my discussion in this thread. I am re-posting this since I often talk in this thread about my portfolio model. My custom in the past on this sort of thread was to re-post my portfolio model every once in a while since I will tend to talk about it once in a while. I "manage" six portfolios for various family including a trust. ALL are set up in this fashion. If I was starting this portfolio today, lets say with $200,000. I would put half the money into the stock side of the portfolio, with an equal amount going into each stock. The other half of the money would go into the fund side of the portfolio, with an equal amount going into each fund. As is my long time custom, I would than let the portfolio run as it wished with NO re-balancing, in other words, I would let the winners run. Over the LONG TERM of investing in this style (at least in my actual portfolios), the stock side seems to reach and settle in at about 70% of the total portfolio and the fund side at about 30% of the total portfolio over time. That is a GOOD THING since it tells me that my stock picks are generally beating the funds over the longer term. AND....since the funds in the account generally meet or beat the SP500, that is a VERY good thing. As mentioned in a post in this thread, I include the funds in the portfolio as a counter-balance to my investing BIAS and stock picking BIAS and to add a top active management fund that often beats the SP500 (Fidelity Contra Fund) and a SP500 Index Fund to get broad exposure to the best 500 companies in AMERICAN business and economy. The funds also give me broad diversification as a counter-balance to my very concentrated 9 stock portfolio.At the same time the funds double and triple up on my individual stock holdings............that I consider the BEST individual businesses in the WORLD. STOCKS: Alphabet Inc Amazon Apple Costco Home Depot Microsoft Nvidia Palantir MUTUAL FUNDS: SP500 Index Fund Fidelity Contra Fund CAUTION: This is a moderate aggressive to aggressive portfolio on the stock side with the small concentration of stocks and the mix of stocks that I hold and with the concentration of big name tech stocks. Especially for my age group. (74). So for anyone considering this sort of portfolio, be careful and consider your risk tolerance and where you are in your life and financial needs. I am able to do this sort of portfolio since my stock market account is NOT needed for my retirement income AND I have a fairly HIGH RISK TOLERANCE. In addition I am a fully invested, all the time, LONG TERM investor. (LONG TERM meaning many years, 5, 10, 20, years or more)" MY COMMENT This portfolio is HIGHLY CONCENTRATED on the big cap side of things. OBVIOUSLY between the funds and my nine stock holdings there is MUCH doubling and tripling up on the stocks. THAT is INTENTIONAL. I strongly subscribe to the view of Buffett and some others that TOO MUCH diversification kills returns. I do NOT believe in the current diversification FAD that most people seem to now follow.......or think they are following. I DO NOT do bonds and think the current level of bonds held by younger investors.....those under age 50.....is extremely foolish.I DO NOT do market timing or Technical Analysis."
