The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  2. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Smokie likes this.
  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    WOW.....a real boom for GOLD. it was not long ago that it was big news that it was going to hit $4000 and oz. Now it has just BLOWN PAST that level and is at.....$4275. Want to look for a REAL bubble.....no it is NOT AI....it is gold and silver. Silver is over $52 per oz.

    The only thing I an hearing....is that anyone I know that might own a bit of gold is.....NOT....going to buy at these levels.

    If you happen to have a little hoard of gold or silver.....the gains are great. BUT....as great as it is to make money....on paper....these prices are INSANE.
     
  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    As to something that everyone seems to be ignoring right now....the Ten year Treasury is at.....4.042%.

    Funny how the media LOVES to talk about the Ten Year when it is higher but mostly IGNORES it when it is dropping toward the 3% range. It is likely that the Ten Year will fall below 4% with the next FED cut....at least in my view.
     
  5. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    This is mostly my view on the constant.....AI BUBBLE....push in the media lately.

    We are at the start of one of the most massive and important economic and technical revolutions in human history. Like every event it will not simply be a straight move up....it will come in spurts and it will have a few dips along the way. BUT...the basic direction is set in stone......UP.

    We have a long way to go with the AI revolution. I compare it to the computer revolution of the 1990's......and the growth of MSFT. Back than the GLORY years for MSFT lasted for about TEN YEARS....from about 1990 to about 2000.

    I see the current AI revolution the same way....stocks like NVIDIA will boom for about TEN to FIFTEEN YEARS. AND....we are about 4-5 years in right now. So in my view we have about 8-10 years to go for the initial BOOM.

    After that the greatest companies.....that have positioned themselves for longer term success will continue to dominate for the next 20 to 30 years......as long as they continue to have.....GREAT VISIONARY MANAGEMENT. Management will be the key. Just like we saw with MSFT.

    I also see the long term future.....as following the past.

    The HUGE AI facilities full of millions of chips......will be like the computers of the ancient past. In the future a simple single rack of 50 chips will be equal in power and capacity to an entire massive AI data center. Same as a basic scientific calculator today....versus.....the HUGE computers of the past. Or....like the computing power in a simple modern cell phone versus the computers of year 2000.

    At some point in the somewhat distant future.....if we have not destroyed the human race with AI.....we will be saying..."can you believe it....my little brain implant has the power of an entire old 2025 AI data center".
     
  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    As to the above.....I DO put the survival of the human race at about....50/50. I have very significant doubt about the era of AI and the machines....in terms of the survival of the human race.

    BUT....that is way beyond my life span. So.....WHAT ME WORRY.
     
  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    A nice day so far for me with my eight stocks. Five green and three red. The red today......AAPL, HD, and COST.
     
  9. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    Yes, it is certainly a talking point for many of them now. Funny how quickly they can begin to change their tune about things. I guess there are two camps: those that believe it is and those that believe it isn't.

    I don't really have too much opinion to offer, at least from my own investments. The broad index gives me a decent amount of exposure to it already. If the run continues, I'll have some modest gains as a result. If it tanks, I'll also get a good taste of that also. That's enough for me at this stage of the game for me.

    It is an interesting time for sure with this type of technology. I have seen/read some crazy predictions on both sides of it. I figure we will end up somewhere between "What the hell were we thinking?" and "Can you believe this?" :).
     
  10. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    Isn't it? I think I have seen and read more about gold on TV and in the media than I ever have. I think some of it has to do with geopolitical risks and other turbulent noise, but I can honestly say I don't follow much of what happens with it.

    Along with the above, I have also noticed a big push with leveraged ETF's. I can't remember the percentage those have increased over the past few months, but it was quite high.

    Of course, that is one symptom of a bull market....nothing can lose and everybody ignores risk. Happens in everyone of them that I can remember in some way or another. There is always the other side of the Eiffel Tower.

    No, I am not saying to be a fearful investor. Just know yourself. Emotions are present in both types of markets (bull/bear). Don't let it get you out of character of how you manage your plan in either environment.
     
  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    YOU....knew it would happen.....the general markets have now turned RED for the day.

    Most sites that I watch.....have nothing about this drop that started about an hour ago. I am guessing that is is due to this:

    China accuses U.S. of deliberately causing panic over rare earth controls, says it is open to talks

    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/16/china-trump-xi-rare-earth-tariff-trade-war.html

    BUT....this is simply OLD NEWS and there is a bit of positivity here with the....."open to talks"...comment. The markets need to move on from all the DIRE FEAR and PANIC that we are seeing lately in response to geo-political events and politics.

    SIMPLY really DUMD stuff in the markets lately....but....no doubt here to stay since this short term impact on the markets by news items and other CRAP is escalating and NOT going to go away.

    The DANGER.......when the short term impact of this INSANITY continues for so long as to impact the long term.
     
  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I cant read this pay-wall article....BUT...is certainly is the little RETAIL INVESTORS that are saving the markets bacon.

    The professionals....forget about it.....they simply run around every day in panic with their hair on fire....shouting fire in the crowded theater that is the modern markets.

    Retail traders’ incredible support of the stock market continues with biggest options volume day ever

    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/16/ret...ues-with-biggest-options-volume-day-ever.html

    BOTTOM LINE.....there simply are NO professionals.
     

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