People are reassured by doing what everyone else is doing. It's unfortunate this is the wrong instinct with investing. Wealth redistribution can't make everyone rich. One of the things I like about investing is how well a contrary thinker, like myself, can do. Even when some of my ideas prove wrong, my overall gain is solid. My parents would have never dreamed I might succeed at something, one day.
The best first......the BIG gin today....so far. Dow surges 1,300 points as U.S.-Iran ceasefire sends oil tumbling https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/07/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
A good indicator for the medium term future. Corporate insiders’ stock-market moves don’t match the headlines. Here’s what they’re seeing. A key indicator shows officers and directors are actually increasing their stakes — betting that the recent selloff is temporary https://www.marketwatch.com/story/c...s-heres-what-theyre-seeing-cf33fefc?st=kcwpLq
The old view that I used to hear all the time. Buy and hold investors are IDIOTS. Buy-and-Hold "Great Companies": The Most Overrated Notion In Investing https://www.realclearmarkets.com/ar...st_overrated_notion_in_investing_1174925.html
I like this little article. Memories of good investments… https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/memories-of-good-investments ....."This propensity to sell stocks faster after both extremely positive and extremely negative returns for investors with a worse past performance is exactly what Julia Brettschneider and her colleagues find among US retail investors."...... ......"Of course, one of the golden rules for successful long-term investors is to let the winners run. Too often, investors sell winners to lock in past returns, but let losing stocks run in the vain hope to recover these losses, which is known as the disposition effect in behavioural finance."..... Bottom line.....beware the HUMAN BRAIN.
Some philosophical items for thought and consideration today. The Upper Middle Class Trap https://ofdollarsanddata.com/the-upper-middle-class-trap/ AND The death of sincerity https://dariusforoux.com/the-death-of-sincerity/
BUMMER.....it is called....BUSINESS. AI’s next bottleneck: Why even the best chips made in the U.S. take a round trip to Taiwan https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/08/tsmc-nvidia-advanced-packaging-intel.html I cant think of a better...more dominant....company that deserves to "HOG" all the resources. Here is the headline that made me click on this article: "Nvidia is hogging a key part of AI chipmaking, and the U.S. buildout can’t keep up"
Ok...it is obvious where ALL the focus is today....so not much more for me to say...just re-read my first post of the day. It is all about IRAN. The only issue today is....will the BIG gains hold till the close.
As to his post above.....TomB16......one of the founders of this thread and a great investor and businessman. He was one of the very few LONG TERM INVESTORS on this board back when most of the content on this site was short term and trading oriented. A perfect example that ALL investing is personal and there is no single path to success. He is a very successful independent thinker.
A good close for me after a simple NEWS driven market day. I had a nice big gain today....but not as big as the SP500. I lost out in my stocks to the SP500 today by....0.89%. The gain today pushed my total LOSS for the year in my entire account to....(-3.31%). YES....you have to be in the market to get the big EXPLOSIVE gains that make all the difference over the long term.
The close today. Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq surge, oil plunges after US-Iran ceasefire sparks relief rally https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live...-ceasefire-sparks-relief-rally-200305068.html
YET another big positive story for AI, tech, and chip companies. But will it matter tomorrow? I doubt it in broad terms with the big news item being IRAN. Applied Digital beats quarterly revenue estimates on surging AI infrastructure demand https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/s...igital-beats-quarterly-revenue-200833188.html
Our little neighborhood of about 4200 homes is getting to be like this.....although you can still find a house here for about 600,000. The U.S. housing markets where million-dollar listings are standard https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/08/us-housing-markets-million-dollar-listing.html Our highest price right now is......GASP.....$20MILLION. We currently have 53 homes out of 4200 actively for sale. THIRTY THREE are $1MILLION or above. TWENTY are below. The lowest priced home here is....$650,000. We are amung the top income neighborhoods in the Austin area....and people come here for the OUTSTANDING schools. For those that can not afford to buy here but want the schools...there are a good number of 3-4 bedroom apartment complexes that are reasonably priced considering........even a few lower income complexes.
Beware free advice. In 2015, Goldman Sachs was publicly indicating they were seeing soft market indicators and a potential pull back while telling their large customers the market is strong and running their own portfolio under strong market conditions, also. IMO, it's been proven beyond a doubt, the best strategy is to get into the market and remain in the market with zero regard for timing or market conditions. Regarding my short term musings. The S&P 500 has gone up year on year for 72.5% of years since 1957 (when the index changed to look similar to current). With the current economic feud between China/Russia and the US and the possibility of war turning the feud into a chasm, plus AI market involvement, I believe the odds of the S&P going up are reduced. I'm not predicting a crash and I'm not predicting what will happen next year. What I'm indicating is the odds of annual gains seem lower than previous years; likely still above 50% chance of annual gain. The reason I consider this profound is because I'm retired. My ability to weather a crash or pull back is still there but it's not as high as it used to be. This changes the value proposition of following an S&P index profoundly, for my specific situation. If I was a younger man, I would ignore all advice/indicators/news and invest for the long term with my eyes and ears closed. As for my previous comments on hitting two long term bond issues with mid 5% return, I hit those hard but I also hold money markets that pay in the 3% range. Again, I'm retired so my strategies skew strongly conservative. My portfolio is doing well but I don't want to pretend everything I touch turns to gold; It doesn't.
ABOVE....is a good example of how you have to think and act in retirement or near retirement. I see many investors that are near or in retirement taking SIGNIFICANT RISK. After a lifetime of investing and being in the markets it is very difficult for many people to pull back and set up your finances for potentially decades of withdrawing and spending their money. I consider retirement planing and managing your money MUCH more difficult that pre-retirement investing. Number one...there is much less margin for error....your time span is limited. Number two....you MUST reduce your risk tolerance....a difficult thing for many people. It is very easy to under-appreciate how quickly your money can disappear in retirement with significant annual withdrawals and a few years of big drops in the markets.
I strongly believe in what this little article presents. I have seen this at work in my own family for....FIVE...generations now. So far in our family we have continued to maintain focus on work ethic, education of the new generation, and financial support of the new generation. Family Wealth Surprising findings on inheritance and intergenerational social mobility https://mailchi.mp/verdadcap/family-wealth?e=513c9c4eac “Shirtsleeves to shirtsleeves in three generations” is the folk wisdom about inherited wealth." AND "Both studies suggest that the human capital you pass on to future generations is as valuable as the financial capital you leave them. Education, connections by marriage and kinship, skills in wealth acquisition: the wealthy families that persist across generations seem able to pass these abilities and values on to future generations to a much greater extent than they are able to pass on the wealth itself. The deeper implication is that the balance sheet is not the locus of a family’s fortune. Assets will fragment, dilute, and disappear, as they always have. What compounds is the intellectual and moral capital embedded in each generation. Judgment, discipline, curiosity, and ambition: these are the true endowments. Families that endure understand, whether explicitly or not, that where their treasure is laid up is not in accounts or trusts, but in the character and capability of their children and grandchildren and great-grandchildren." MY COMMENT As a parent.....IGNORE the above at your risk. This is CRITICAL to establish a multi-generational history of success in your family. The above is your primary job as a parent or grandparent. It is a hands-on job.
Somewhat related to the above. The Upper Middle Class Trap https://ofdollarsanddata.com/the-upper-middle-class-trap/ "Right now, the upper middle class is in fierce competition for a marginal improvement in lifestyle. They’re working more and relaxing less to purchase products and services with clearly declining quality. It’s a financial arms race that doesn’t make any sense."
I am sitting and wasting time as all the big averages are medium level RED. Here is the markets today....so far. Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq pause rally after Iran says ceasefire has been broken https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live...says-ceasefire-has-been-broken-225323726.html
Here is part of the market story today. Do I care....NOPE. The FED inflation target does NOT reflect economic reality....it is made up BALONEY. Everyone knows this...but...at the same time the media, the business reporters, the FED, economists,.....just about everyone....ignores the facts and PRETENDS that a 2% inflation target is RATIONAL and historically "normal". Inflation held sticky at 3% as U.S. headed into war with Iran, key Fed gauge shows https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/09/cor...february-as-expected-key-fed-gauge-shows.html My view based on historic data......a 3% inflation level is actually the PERFECT SWEET SPOT in a booming and growing economy.
I am NOT a.......TECHNICAL....based investor. I am a FUNDAMENTAL based investor. There is a HUGE difference. for those that are TECHNICAL based investors.....here you go. Nvidia Shares Near Level Where Technical Traders See a Breakout https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-shares-near-level-where-103637884.html
