EXACTLY......and no one seemed to care anyway. Friday's CPI Report Was a Lot of Noise, Not Much Signal https://www.realclearmarkets.com/ar...s_a_lot_of_noise_not_much_signal_1176139.html
When i retired....EARLY....at age 49 I knew that I had to keep at least THREE YEARS of cash money on hand for living expenses. I did not want to be subject to...market risk. I figured that three years was long enough to allow me to refill the coffers......during times when the markets were booming and hitting new tops. AND....it actually worked out. Take This Simple Step as You Approach Retirement Don’t wait until the last minute to fill your cash ‘bucket.’ https://www.morningstar.com/retirement/take-this-simple-step-runup-retirement
WELL...that did not take long. The SP500 is close to green and the NASDAQ just hit GREEN. NOW.....the real market day begins. Although the close is NOT a foregone conclusion. HERE is the open today: S&P 500 is flat as investors bet on eventual Iran resolution, Dow dragged down by Goldman https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/12/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
A nice little article for those that like to sit on lumps of shinny metal. Silver vs. gold: Which metal made investors more money in the last 50 years? https://finance.yahoo.com/personal-...ore-money-in-the-last-50-years-130000122.html ....."The answer is clear: since 1976, gold's price has skyrocketed, outperforming silver over the long term. However, silver has occasionally surged faster than gold and has performed better over the past decade.".....
I was surprised to see how good the GOLDMAN earnings were. From all the negative media I assumed they were a miss. ACTUALLY.....they were a good beat. I look at earnings and fundamentals of a company as....A WHOLE. That is why companies and businesses are usually made up of different interconnected business segments and income streams that ALL contribute to the WHOLE. UNFORTUNATELY....we are now in a time period where the WHOLE does not matter. Earnings are micro-nit-picked and every little aspect of the whole is second-guessed. If i was setting up a business.....as a former small business owner....I would INTENTIONALLY try to set up various income streams that support each other and the whole. I would avoid the business situation of being dependent on ONLY one or two income streams. Of course NOW.....with the focus on "shareholder value"...over the past 10 or so years....we have many companies that are one or two trick ponies. I consider that BAD MANAGEMENT....for many reasons and bad news for shareholders. Goldman Sachs tops estimates on record equities trading — here’s why the stock is falling https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/13/goldman-sachs-gs-earnings-1q-2026.html "Here’s what the company reported: Earnings: $17.55 per share vs. $16.49 LSEG estimate Revenue: $17.23 billion vs. $16.97 billion expected The bank said profit climbed 19% from the year-earlier quarter to $5.63 billion, or $17.55 per share. Revenue rose 14% to $17.23 billion."
To continue my THEME above.....and my theme the other day about ignoring REALITY: Goldman Sachs with a reality check on AI: Fears of disruption will hang over growth stocks for years https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold...g-over-growth-stocks-for-years-131233368.html ....."Growth stocks have been hit from all sides this year, from AI disruption fears to high AI spending to higher-for-longer interest rates amid the US conflict with Iran. The "Magnificent Seven" stocks sport valuations near fresh lows relative to the S&P 500 (^GSPC), JPMorgan strategist Mislav Matejka pointed out in a note last week. "Mag 7 relative [to S&P 500] is not acting as a safe haven," Matejka said."..... Of course this does not.............. just spring out the forehead of ZEUS......it is the MEDIA.......the insanely DUMB media....that is pushing and causing this to happen. There will ALWAYS be some negative event, story-line, part of an earnings report, social event, etc, etc, etc.....that can and will be fear-mongered.
I agree.....AI is slowly embedding itself into everything. The process is going to continue over the next 10-20 years and much of it will be unnoticeable and seamless. It will just happen. ALL the current......FEAR-MONGERING BS.....will look pretty STUPID in about 10-20 years. YES....of course there are dangers....big dangers......but that is just part of the human experience over many centuries....actually thousands of years. Time to ditch AI anxiety — experts say there’s a lot less to fear than we think Experts say learning AI skills can ease job fears and unlock new opportunities https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy...xperts-say-theres-lot-less-fear-than-we-think The real question....as we continue to move into the....SCREEN based world.....are we humans LOSING our ability to deal with uncertainty and our prior ability to deal with change and thrive long term.
A few little excerpts from a letter I receive on occasion. Fortunately for investors, S&P is keeping score. Their year-end 2025 Standard & Poor's Indices Versus Active Fund (SPIVA) Scorecard serves as the de facto scorekeeper of the active versus passive debate. For the ten years ending December 31, 2025, 86% of large-cap, 81% of mid-cap and 76% of small-cap actively managed domestic stock funds underperformed their S&P benchmark index. In addition, 90% of all active funds underperformed the S&P 1500 Total Stock Market Index over the past decade. What may be even more disheartening is that 35% (870) of the 2,456 domestic stock funds available to investors on January 1, 2016, no longer existed by year-end 2025. Benjamin Graham, the father of investment analysis, offered this illustration: “In the short run the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine.” In other words, in the near term, stock prices are driven largely by opinions, emotions, headlines, and trends. Investors are constantly “voting” with their money based on what feels exciting or scary at the moment. Over longer periods, the market becomes much more grounded in business reality. Companies are ultimately “weighed” based on their earnings, cash flows, dividends, and long-term growth. This idea is a powerful reminder of the need to focus on long-term investing and disciplined behavior. Short-term market movements can feel meaningful, but they are often driven by emotions rather than lasting value. A couple of good reminders in the above. Stay grounded.
YES....stay GROUNDED....indeed. The key as always....being as long term as possible. There is safety and less risk in.....TIME. If this becomes untrue at some point in my lifetime....I will deal with it at that point. Till than.......I AM RIDING THE WAVE.....RIDING THE WAVE. AND.....there is a small....but positive little wave that I am riding today. At this moment I have a small GAIN in my stocks for the day. I constantly WEIGH the performance of my stocks versus my SP500 Index Fund and my Fidelity Contra Fund. I dont have to do any complex calculations or keep reams of data. I simply look at where the funds and where the stocks are.....as a whole.....as a percentage of my account. I look at this.....CRUDE MEASURE..... every day when I look at how my account did that day. So I always have a pretty good handle on how it is going.....short term and long term. ALL the accounts that I manage are set up the same way.......basically starting with 50% in the SP500 and 50% in the same stocks.
To continue the above....it has been a while since I posted this: "SO....here is my current portfolio of....SEVEN....stocks and funds. The UPDATED Portfolio Model.......NOT as investment advice.....just as a disclosure of my personal BIAS and my thinking on how to structure a long term portfolio. "I am once again posting my PORTFOLIO MODEL. My initial criteria to start the process to consider a business are.......BIG CAP, AMERICAN, DIVIDEND PAYING, GREAT MANAGEMENT, ICONIC PRODUCT, WORLD WIDE LEADER IN THEIR FIELD, LONG TERM HORIZON, etc, etc, etc. PORTFOLIO MODEL "Here is my "PORTFOLIO MODEL" for all accounts managed which is the basis for MUCH of my discussion in this thread. I am re-posting this since I often talk in this thread about my portfolio model. My custom in the past on this sort of thread was to re-post my portfolio model every once in a while since I will tend to talk about it once in a while. I "manage" six portfolios for various family including a trust. ALL are set up in this fashion. If I was starting this portfolio today, lets say with $200,000. I would put half the money into the stock side of the portfolio, with an equal amount going into each stock. The other half of the money would go into the fund side of the portfolio, with an equal amount going into each fund. As is my long time custom, I would than let the portfolio run as it wished with NO re-balancing, in other words, I would let the winners run. Over the LONG TERM of investing in this style (at least in my actual portfolios), the stock side seems to reach and settle in at about 70% of the total portfolio and the fund side at about 30% of the total portfolio over time. That is a GOOD THING since it tells me that my stock picks are generally beating the funds over the longer term. AND....since the funds in the account generally meet or beat the SP500, that is a VERY good thing. As mentioned in a post in this thread, I include the funds in the portfolio as a counter-balance to my investing BIAS and stock picking BIAS and to add a top active management fund that often beats the SP500 (Fidelity Contra Fund) and a SP500 Index Fund to get broad exposure to the best 500 companies in AMERICAN business and economy. The funds also give me broad diversification as a counter-balance to my very concentrated 7 stock portfolio.At the same time the funds double and triple up on my individual stock holdings............that I consider the BEST individual businesses in the WORLD. STOCKS: Alphabet Inc Amazon Apple Costco Microsoft Nvidia Palantir MUTUAL FUNDS: SP500 Index Fund Fidelity Contra Fund CAUTION: This is a moderate aggressive to aggressive portfolio on the stock side with the small concentration of stocks and the mix of stocks that I hold and with the concentration of big name tech stocks. Especially for my age group. (75). So for anyone considering this sort of portfolio, be careful and consider your risk tolerance and where you are in your life and financial needs. I am able to do this sort of portfolio since my stock market account is NOT needed for my retirement income AND I have a fairly HIGH RISK TOLERANCE. In addition I am a fully invested, all the time, LONG TERM investor. (LONG TERM meaning many years, 5, 10, 20, years or more)" MY COMMENT This portfolio is HIGHLY CONCENTRATED on the big cap side of things. OBVIOUSLY between the funds and my nine stock holdings there is MUCH doubling and tripling up on the stocks. THAT is INTENTIONAL. I strongly subscribe to the view of Buffett and some others that TOO MUCH diversification kills returns. I do NOT believe in the current diversification FAD that most people seem to now follow.......or think they are following. I DO NOT do bonds and think the current level of bonds held by younger investors.....those under age 50.....is extremely foolish.I DO NOT do market timing or Technical Analysis."
GOOD.....we are now GREEN across the board in the big averages. There is real underlying strength in the markets and the BULL MARKET is alive and well underneath the day to day news items that are currently MILDLY impacting the markets. It would be nice to see some emphasis on EARNINGS....especially good earnings. Hope springs eternal. I am even starting to....DARE TO THINK.....that I might actually turn POSITIVE......GASP.....in my entire account some time over the next few weeks.
HERE....is a list of the occupations and requirements (very minimal) to avoid paying taxes on tips. Of course...if it is a matter of principle to you....you can always choose to give the saved money to the government. IRS publishes list of occupations that qualify for ‘no tax on tips’ provision https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/13/irs-tax-on-tips-big-beautiful-bill.html It is always AMAZING to me how many of the various BILLIONAIRES that talk about wanting to pay higher taxes......NEVER.....seem to simply donate extra money to the government. Of course this is a very different topic than regular people saving some taxes on tips.
Thank you......MR OBVIOUS. BlackRock raises view on U.S. stocks on belief that war is over, profits are up https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/13/bla...n-belief-that-war-is-over-profits-are-up.html
LOL......I just saw a headline that GOLDMAN SHARES FALL ON IMPERFECT EARNINGS. That is about where we are right now......good or even great earnings....are not good enough. They need to be....PERFECT.
Looks like a good potential day for stocks to....push higher into the close. My little wave that I was riding earlier.....is a little bit bigger now.
Good....a nice push into the close over the last 30 minutes of the markets. Even NVDA gave in over the last 25 minutes and ended in the GREEN. It was a good day for my stocks...considering. I ended with only two RED....COST and AAPL. I had a nice small.....medium gain today. But...I got beat by the SP500 by 0.36%. A good start to the week.
AND....just to JINX the rest of the week.....I am inching ever closer to YTD......0.00%. My loss was cut to (-2.12%) today.
The close today: Stocks stage a big comeback Monday with the S&P 500 wiping out Iran war losses https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/12/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
Yes, break out the market voodoo. But you brought it up. I have been on the green side for a bit, so you might as well join us. Of course this could get wiped out in this environment pretty easy. We actually have fared pretty well all things considered at this point. The market has felt much worse than it actually has been. There you have it. If that doesn’t put the hex on us….nothing will.
