Here is a nice article and some interesting data for the SP500. 50 Years of Stock Market Returns https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/05/50-years-of-stock-market-returns/
Some good posts and commentary this week in the thread. A nice and well-deserved post of recognition for our patriarch of the thread WXYZ. Our little gathering place is still around despite the odds stacked against it. Kind of amazing considering the limits/participation of the site itself. We sail on.
The markets have been doing fine despite all of the noise. Imagine that. A popular topic. Earnings. Well, would you look at this. • Earnings Scorecard: For Q1 2026 (with 91% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 84% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 80% of S&P 500 companies has reported a positive revenue surprise. • Earnings Growth: For Q1 2026, the blended (year-over-year) earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 27.7%. If 27.7% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the highest earnings growth rate reported by the index since Q4 2021 (32.0%). • Valuation: The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 21.4. This P/E ratio is above the 5-year average (19.9) and above the 10-year average (18.9). (FactSet) So much for the earnings/broken market theory. The markets are living off the great earnings as usual. Yes, a bit of short-term noise with some of the companies for a bit after some of the reporting, but eventually it just can't be ignored. The big firms and so on did a bit of a short-term sale hoping some folks would follow only to snap up those sold shares at a better price. And in true fashion, the little herd comes rushing back in once the coast is clear to buy at a higher price.
United States Inflation Rate 3.81% As of the end of April 2026 Some posts upthread mentioned this. Of course, a bit of market chatter about it as well the past few weeks. Seems to slowly be creeping up a bit. Also mentioned previously, this is really not surprising considering current events. Like it or not it is a fossil fuel world. When there is a pinch, confrontation, or whatever involving this we can expect to see some issues. We have experienced this a zillion times and yet some are somehow surprised by it. Shipping, trucking, delivery of goods, availability, transportation...eventually trickles down and makes its way into just about everything. Eventually all the way to the shelf. I am not big on predictions nor am I trying to make one here. I don't know where we will end up in this deal, but as long as we have it to contend with...well, it's going be hanging out in our neighborhood.
Nice little excerpt above on the "50 Years of Stock Market Returns." As they say, Time in the Market versus Timing the Market. Interesting to look back and ponder all of it. Take advantage of the "time" you have to come up with a plan and then set it in motion and adhere to it. Over a long period of time there will likely be many moments of great runs and amazing returns on your plan if treated seriously and wisely. It will not eliminate those times that will come along and test your emotions and nerves to the limit. Each event is a test of our resolve to stick to the plan and learn something about ourselves as investors. Taking those lessons, whatever they may be, and applying them to our experience and utilize them in a way that makes you better as an investor in the long-term. These experiences are available in both good times and bad. As I have said many times. We cannot control the events themselves. We can only control our reactions and decisions regarding them.
For what it's worth, I expect to own some Micron in the next 10 days (I have a long term buy order in place). The intention is a medium term hold (perhaps 5 years). Recent Micron news has been wrong. I wouldn't call it a bad interpretation. It's wrong. I suspect someone is manipulating the price but it could also be that a reporter had a cardiac event, slumped onto their keyboard, and their final grasp at life knocked the mouse causing the article to send.
this. i'm really grateful the long term group is still largely around. sure, there have been a few that we haven't seen for ages - one particular name that comes to my mind being emmett. however, we have seen a few return recently like oldmanram which has been pretty awesome to see. the group here - albeit a small-ish one now at this point is still active which is really nice. i'm still in awe though at how consistent our man W has been on here. it's not just him copying and pasting some articles that he finds - but the fact that he provides in depth commentary to all of his posts. it's really such a rare thing to find nowadays if i'm being honest. with so much AI crap being posted on the web nowadays. it's really so refreshing to have someone like W - a real human posting real time thoughts. and not just copying and pasting things. the level of dedication and time that he puts here simply never ceases to amaze me. this thread is literally the only thing that this site has left going for it anymore. don't believe me? if you just take a look at the recent posts list here over the past week for example, you will see that all but1 thread is of SPAM variety. where the post being made is copy and pasted spam material. screenshot below for proof! it is what it is unfortunately, but i'm personally so forever grateful that W is still around and keeping this thread active. this is really the sole reason i still check in here. thank you from the bottom of my heart for all you do here W for this seriously cannot be said enough times. you rock sir!
It is a joint effort...including "you" Big Bear. Smokie, RG, Lori, Tiresmoke, TomB16, Oldmanram,......and all the rest on here....that I am not thinking of right now.. We are "ALL" keeping this thread alive as our personal investing site. Thanks to everyone and us......ALL.....for doing what we are doing....mentoring and supporting each other in our investing.
i just kind of showed back-up, on the scene, I'm very grateful to all you guy's .......You are still here, Thank You for being here. I wanted to FORMALLY say "Hi" to Lori, you are inspiring !! keep it up, your doing great. And BigBear0083, "HI" WXYZ, I confirmed that I am getting the PanOptic PRO !!!! its the next generation lens for cataract surgery. The PRO costs a little more, but it's better. Besides W you can't take it with you, and you might as well get a real good lens Better vision/ reduced HALO effect, and it reduces the initial halo's quicker go's away quicker Better light transmission Better Contrastt Better Night Vision Well Thank You again AND... Have a good weekend everybody
A MILD and MIXED open for the week today. We will see NVDA earnings on Wednesday. That will be the event of the week. S&P 500 is little changed as traders eye oil prices and bond yields https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/17/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
So simple....so true.....and so difficult to execute for most people. The 4 Abilities Every Investor Needs to be Successful https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/05/the-4-abilities-every-investors-needs-to-be-successful/ To summarize. "First they must possess an interest in the process. Second, investors need more than a bit of math horsepower. Third, investors need a firm grasp of financial history. Even if investors possess all three of these abilities, it will all be for naught if they do not have a fourth one: the emotional discipline to execute their planned strategy." Good discussion on these in the article. The only one that I do not think is really necessary is....."a bit of math horsepower". In my personal investing I use NOTHING more than basic math and a basic calculator.
I tend to agree with this statement. Other than as a short term trade.....or gamble....I think most IPO situations will present a better entry point about 6-12 months down the road from tthe iniitial euphoria. ....."The funny thing about these giant IPOs is that people always treat them like once-in-a-generation opportunities when historically they’ve been some of the worst trades imaginable."..... Exit Liquidity https://trendlabs.com/exit-liquidity/
I like this little article. 'The market waits for no one' Plus a charted review of the macro crosscurrents https://www.tker.co/p/stock-market-valuations-down-prices-up ......."You could sit on the sidelines, fretting over how valuations appear unattractive. Maybe they do eventually meet your definition of a reasonable valuation. But remember: Publicly traded companies will never stop pursuing earnings growth. It’s something that’s been going on since the beginning of capitalism. (Read more about that here and here.) So, the longer you wait for that attractive valuation to come, the greater the risk that earnings are much higher and you find that attractive valuation comes with a much higher price."
Speaking of IPO's above. SpaceX reportedly issues 5-for-1 stock split as IPO timeline accelerates Elon Musk's rocket company could also price its IPO as early as June 11th, with shares trading on June 12th on the Nasdaq. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/s...it-as-ipo-timeline-accelerates-121128655.html
YES.....NVDA....their earnings have been historically DISRESPECTED over the last 4 or so quarters. No matter how good they are the MEDIA geniouses allways come up with some reason why they were not good enough. Here's how Nvidia stock has historically performed after earnings: Chart of the Day https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/s...fter-earnings-chart-of-the-day-090000420.html
AND....here we go ALREADY. The MEDIA ramping up the drama and expectations for NVDA.....and.....the excuse to TRASH great earnings once again. NO...it is NOT up to this company to support the entire stock market. All that they need to do as a business is put up great earnings....yet again....for us shareholders, the business owners. The ENTIRE focus should be on the BIG PICTURE......not....nit picking every little aspect of their earnings. YES......I live in a fantasy world.... if I expect that the last sentence above will actually happen. Why Nvidia earnings must deliver massively https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/why-nvidia-earnings-must-deliver-massively-131600201.html
WHATEVER..... 10-year Treasury yield touches highest in a year, Japan’s 30-year yield rises to a record https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/18/treasury-yields-inflation-bond-rout-oil.html Interesting...especially if you are approaching retirement and want to lock in some great SAFE income. BUT.....as an investor.....I do NOT invest based on general economic "stuff". I invest based on the fundamental specifics of the particular stocks that I own,
I have a bad "feeling"....that the magic is now gone. The entire focus will now be on "bean-counter" investing. The "ART" of investing....that was a huge factor in this company for decades is now.....the past. BUT....we will not know for sure....till, at the minimum, 1-2 years from now. Berkshire has revamped its portfolio — here’s how the new stocks are trading https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/18/berkshire-portfolio-revamp-delta-airlines-macys-unitedhealth.html
These auto companies were.....MORONS. IDIOTIC management that went all in on sucking up to politicians and making product decisions that had NO connection to reality. The executives that did this should ALL.....be FIRED. I have NO DOUBT that their market research was telling them that the EV PUSH was the height of STUPIDITY......but these GUTLESS MORONS...went ahead and gambled the company anyway. We saw this across the entire auto industry. MASS DELUSION........to satisfy one faction, of one political party......always a sure recipe for business disaster. Honda posts first-ever annual loss in nearly 70 years as electric vehicle bet backfires https://www.foxbusiness.com/retail/...early-70-years-electric-vehicle-bet-backfires
