The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    For a 27 year old......even for any age.....there is little I can add to what you are already doing Dax. I think you have it ALL together in your budget. Avoiding DEBT is smart as is paying cash for your car. Buying a house is a GREAT GOAL for the near future.......especially with the very low interest rates we have now. You are.....WAY AHEAD.....of most people your age with your investing and savings.

    ONE word......keep in mind that as kids get older and life goes along....there will be times when it might be hard to keep up the savings and investing. That is OK.....the main thing is to NOT GIVE UP.......and........to have GOALS for your life and your family.

    If you have family or friends or others that might be interested in this site......please.....recommend it to them. The more people we have on here the better for us all.
     
  2. Dax Martinez

    Dax Martinez Member

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    Today I ended with a /\ 0.45% on my investment.

    what do you mean when you say beating SPY?
     
  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I LIKE this little article about one of my holdings.....and......the soon to be unveiled earnings:

    Get ready for Apple’s first $100 billion quarter in history

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/g...-quarter-in-history-11611347355?siteid=yhoof2

    "Even a pandemic can’t stop Apple Inc. from hitting new records.

    The smartphone giant is expected to post its first-ever quarter with more than $100 billion in revenue Wednesday, driven by a strong early performance for its new iPhone 12 line as well as continued demand for Macs and iPads for remote work and school needs.

    Apple’s AAPL, +1.61% fiscal first-quarter results will be the first to include sales from the iPhone 12 family of devices, which began to roll out in October. Though Apple faced supply constraints on some models, the debut of Apple’s first 5G-enabled phones has arguably been the company’s most successful product launch in five years, in the view of Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty.

    Customers seem to be increasingly opting for higher-priced iPhone models and more expensive storage configurations, which would boost the average selling price of devices and help the company’s profit margin. Apple no longer provides unit-sales metrics that shed light on its average selling prices, but the company usually offers some qualitative comments about which devices are performing best.

    Apple has also seen strong sales of Macs and iPads amid the pandemic, with more people working and studying from home, and that momentum is expected to have continued into the fiscal first quarter. The company launched new iPads late last year as well as its first computers to feature the company’s own custom chip.

    Analysts expect record performance for the company’s services category as well, though one area may not hold up as well. Apple has done a good job of transitioning sales to its online store given the COVID-19 crisis, but it’s “overly reliant on in-store customer purchases” to drive sales of its AppleCare insurance product, Huberty wrote.

    What to expect
    Earnings:
    Analysts tracked by FactSet expect that Apple earned $1.41 a share in the December quarter, up from $1.25 a year earlier. On Estimize, which crowdsources estimates from hedge funds, academics and others, the average projection calls for $1.45 a share.

    Revenue: The FactSet consensus models a record $102.54 billion in revenue for Apple’s fiscal first quarter, up from $91.82 billion a year prior. The Estimize consensus is for $103.76 billion.

    Analysts tracked by FactSet model $59.58 billion in iPhone revenue for Apple, up from $55.96 billion a year earlier. Apple declined to give formal guidance for the quarter on the last earnings call, but Chief Financial Officer Luca Maestri said at the time to expect growth in iPhone revenue even though devices would begin shipping later in the quarter than they did a year prior.

    The FactSet consensus calls for $7.38 billion in Pad revenue, up from $5.98 billion; $8.63 billion in Mac revenue, up from $7.16 billion; $15.17 billion in services revenue, up from $12.72 billion; and $11.49 billion in revenue for the wearables, home, and accessories category, up from $10.01 billion.

    Stock movement: Apple shares have gained following three of the past five earnings reports, and the shares are up 72% over the past year as the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.57%, which counts Apple as a component, has gained 7%.

    Of the 41 analysts tracked by FactSet who cover Apple’s stock, 28 have buy ratings, 10 have hold ratings and three have sell ratings, with an average price target of $132.71.

    What else to watch for
    Apple has declined to give a quantitative financial forecast in each of its last three earnings reports because of uncertainty related to the COVID-19 pandemic, and the trend will likely continue this quarter.


    “Given lingering uncertainty, we expect Apple is more likely to provide ‘guidelines’ rather than ‘guidance’ for Q2,” Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi wrote in a note to clients. In addition to the many unknowns around the pandemic, Apple’s late launch timing of the latest batch of iPhones means that the March quarter could be stronger than usual, since there were fewer iPhone 12 “selling days” leading up to it.

    Sacconaghi will also be watching for commentary on Apple’s ongoing dispute with app developers led by Epic Games, which sued Apple and claimed that the company’s App Store rules around in-app purchases are monopolistic. Apple lowered commission rates for smaller developers that make up the bulk of those on the App Store, even as these developers don’t contribute too much to Apple’s overall revenue from the platform.

    More on Apple and Epic: ‘Fortnite’ dispute might open floodgates to serious scrutiny of Apple

    “We believe that Apple’s decision to lower commissions was politically astute, allowing the company to portray itself as a promoter of small business, while also superficially addressing the complaint that its high app store fees are stifling competition and innovation,” wrote Sacconaghi, who has a market perform rating and $120 price target on the stock. “It remains to be seen if Apple will provide further commentary on this issue; that said, we continue to believe that the legal risk to App Store revenue is low.”

    Morgan Stanley’s Huberty is interested in the company’s China momentum. She suspects that the company is benefiting from weakness at Huawei, citing data that suggest customers are switching from Huawei to Apple devices at the highest rate in 15 months. She has an overweight rating and $152 price target on the stock.

    Goldman Sachs analyst Rod Hall echoed the point about Huawei’s challenges, though he’s concerned “that Apple has already begun cutting iPhone orders” and that build orders for the first half of 2021 suggest a move toward models with lower average selling prices.

    “These changes are consistent, in our opinion, with a normal iPhone redesign cycle but are not consistent with a supercycle,” he wrote. “As a result we continue to expect iPhone replacement rates to resume their ongoing decline in 2021.” Hall has a sell rating and $85 target price on Apple shares.

    Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Co. analyst Brian White highlights several new products and services that Apple could shed light on during the quarterly call. During the December quarter, the company began selling its AirPods Max over-the-ear headphones and rolled out both a subscription fitness offering and a way to bundle service together for a discount.

    In our view, Apple’s portfolio was positioned better-than-ever heading into the recent holiday season, while product and service updates position Planet Apple well in 2021,” he wrote. White has a buy rating and $144 price target on Apple shares.

    MY COMMENT

    LETS hope that the excitement reflected above is representative of the REAL numbers next Wednesday. The next week on February 4 AMAZON will report. I am really looking forward to both of these. Others that I am looking forward to are.......Microsoft on January 16, TESLA on January 27, GOOGLE on February 2, and NVIDIA on February 11. These....plus many more over the coming weeks....should set the stage for......WHATEVER....stocks are going to do over the near term.

    I TOTALLY expect that we are in for a.....VERY GOOD.........earnings season over the next weeks. The past two or three quarters EXCEEDED expected results........many people thought the virus would cause much WORSE earnings in the second and third quarters.

    Lets hope.......and I expect.....that the POWER and STRENGTH of the markets and.....especially.....the DOMINANT, ICONIC, BIG CAP, GROWTH STOCK LEADERS.....will be on full display by the time forth quarter earnings are done.
     
    #3103 WXYZ, Jan 22, 2021
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2021
  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Dax......I mean that....today....my account had a return that was better than the return of the SP500 today. For example.....lets say on a particular day.....the SP500 had a gain of .20% and on the same day my account had a gain of .40%. I would say I beat the SP500 by .20%. Or.....on a particular day the SP500 had a loss of .25% and my account only had a loss of .05%.....I would say I beat the SP500 by .20%. Some days I beat the SP500 some days I dont.

    This is just a little game I play with myself.......as a long term investor...beating the SP500 on a single day does not really mean anything. This ties in with my two investing goals:

    1. Average a total return of 10% or better per year over the long term. (This is my primary investing goal)
    2. Try to beat the SP500 each year.

    I am way ahead on goal number 1 over the past decades since I have a long term total return between 14% and 15%. Goal number 2 is a more difficult goal.....since even professional investors....CAN NOT consistently beat the total return of the SP500.
     
    #3104 WXYZ, Jan 22, 2021
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2021
  5. Trahn Thompson

    Trahn Thompson Active Member

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    W, looks like AAPL will hit that super cycle. I'm also looking forward to earnings from Apple, Amazon and Microsoft. They are key holdings for me. The four stocks I consider the cornerstones of my portfolio Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and Tesla. Happy Investing!
     
  6. Trahn Thompson

    Trahn Thompson Active Member

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    That's a good run W if it isn't broke don't fix it! What have been your cornerstone stocks over that run? Happy Investing!
     
  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Well......Trahn......that run goes back over three decades......so.....there have been many cornerstones over that time. Stocks like......Microsoft, Amgen, Costco, Nike, Starbucks, Lowe's, Home Depot, IBM, GE, Coke, Phillip Morris, Amazon, Google, Tesla, Pepsi, Apple, Cisco........and......probably many more that I am not thinking of right now. I have owned a lot of stocks over that time......many for many years. EVENTUALLY....the ones that I no longer own........matured or got to the point where management changed.........or for some other reason they were not producing as I wanted so I sold them.

    The main thing that I have ALWAYS done is try to invest in.........BIG CAP, MARKET LEADING, GROWTH, DIVIDEND PAYING, AMERICAN, ICONIC PRODUCT, WORLD WIDE DOMINANCE.....type of companies. Most of the stocks above....I held them through the GLORY DAYS of the company......and.....was fortunate to sell them at the right time.

    I also held some really good mutual funds over the same time.......Fidelity Contra fund, Magellan, Dodge & Cox Stock fund, Dodge & Cox International fund, and some others that I am not remembering. Magellan and Fidelity Contra Fund were my greatest mutual funds. I held Magellan through......ALL....... the Peter Lynch years. I have held Contra Fund through their GLORY YEARS with their current management.....and STILL hold it today.

    I TOTALLY agree with.....if it aint broke dont fix it. I have invested in the same fashion for my entire investing life. Through every investing fad of the past 45 years. I just do my NORMAL thing and ignore everything else. I have been posting the SAME INVESTING style on various boards for 25 years now. Before that.....there were NO internet investing boards. One guy was gone from one of the boards for about 10 years and came back and said......." I cant believe that after all this time you are still doing and saying the same thing".

    Either I have a very SIMPLE MIND.....or......GREAT FOCUS.....or both.......I dont know. Even with my long term strategy.....I try to be an OPPORTUNISTIC investor. I have NEVER been a trader....other than the brief time that I have mentioned previously when I did some momentum trading during the day trading era of the 1990's. BUT.....I STILL had my long term account at that time and did not use those funds for trading......I did the trading on margin so I did not use my own money......just the leverage of my account.

    I STILL try to be OPPORTUNISTIC.....if I see something that I like. For example my purchase of TESLA in June and July......or.......the trade I did on the APPLE split that is part of this thread.

    I will PROBABLY......do an OPPORTUNISTIC.....margin/momentum.... trade on the Robinhood IPO....which should happen this year....perhaps during the first quarter. BUT....I have not decided yet. If I do it I will buy somewhere around 200 shares.....depending on price..... on the first day of the IPO. I would like to raise some.......ART CASH.

    To me.....the MOST important thing investing is......ALWAYS reinvest ALL dividends and capital gains.......and......ALWAYS let winners run.
     
    #3107 WXYZ, Jan 22, 2021
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2021
    zukodany and TomB16 like this.
  8. BigPear

    BigPear Member

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    Longer-term investors survive longer.
     
    TomB16 likes this.
  9. Syynik

    Syynik Well-Known Member

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    Welcome, Dax, and congrats on your new license and job. I like your choices, and as a fellow *sorta!* trucker, I've learned to watch what I'm carrying. If you start to see a large amount of a product, PAY ATTENTION.

    I bought Stitch Fix because I was seeing a lot of those, I recently bought Chewy because I've got half a dozen of those boxes daily. I should have paid attention 2 years ago when I first noticed, but this is a learning process.
     
    TomB16 likes this.
  10. Dax Martinez

    Dax Martinez Member

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    Thank you for welcoming me @Syynik !

    And that is a smart thing to do, I have thought about it before too. I see chewy boxes all the time! Even before, when I use to work for fedex delivering packages, I use to deliver those boxes everyday! Thank you for that tip, will deff keep that in mind and my eyes open.

    Have you guys heard of Beyond Meat before? is a plant based burger. In my opinion I feel like I’m the near future people are going to start becoming aware of what they eat. And the vegan industry is growing. What are your guys opinion?

    Also the cannabis industry, does it look promising?
     
  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    AS USUAL

    I am once again posting my PORTFOLIO MODEL. My initial criteria to start the process to consider a business are.......BIG CAP, AMERICAN, DIVIDEND PAYING, GREAT MANAGEMENT, ICONIC PRODUCT, WORLD WIDE LEADER IN THEIR FIELD, LONG TERM HORIZON, etc, etc, etc.

    PORTFOLIO MODEL

    "Here is my "PORTFOLIO MODEL" for all accounts managed which is the basis for MUCH of my discussion in this thread. I am re-posting this since I often talk in this thread about my portfolio model. My custom in the past on this sort of thread was to re-post my portfolio model every once in a while since I will tend to talk about it once in a while. I "manage" six portfolios for various family including a trust. ALL are set up in this fashion. If I was starting this portfolio today, lets say with $200,000. I would put half the money into the stock side of the portfolio, with an equal amount going into each stock. The other half of the money would go into the fund side of the portfolio, with an equal amount going into each fund. As is my long time custom, I would than let the portfolio run as it wished with NO re-balancing, in other words, I would let the winners run. Over the LONG TERM of investing in this style (at least in my actual portfolios), the stock side seems to reach and settle in at about 55% of the total portfolio and the fund side at about 45% of the total portfolio over time. That is a GOOD THING since it tells me that my stock picks are generally beating the funds over the longer term. AND....since the funds in the account generally meet or beat the SP500, that is a VERY good thing.

    As mentioned in a post in this thread, I include the funds in the portfolio as a counter-balance to my investing BIAS and stock picking BIAS and to add a top active management fund that often beats the SP500 (Fidelity Contra Fund) and a SP500 Index Fund to get broad exposure to the best 500 companies in AMERICAN business and economy. The funds also give me broad diversification as a counter-balance to my very concentrated 12 stock portfolio. At the same time the funds double and triple up on my individual stock holdings............that I consider the BEST individual businesses in the WORLD.

    STOCKS:

    Alphabet Inc
    Amazon
    Apple
    Costco
    Home Depot
    Honeywell
    Nike
    Microsoft
    Proctor & Gamble
    Tesla
    Nvidia
    Snow (100 shares, a rare, long term, speculative holding)

    MUTUAL FUNDS:

    SP500 Index Fund
    Fidelity Contra Fund

    CAUTION: This is a moderate aggressive to aggressive portfolio on the stock side with the small concentration of stocks and the mix of stocks that I hold and with the concentration of big name tech stocks. Especially for my age group. (71). So for anyone considering this sort of portfolio, be careful and consider your risk tolerance and where you are in your life and financial needs. I am able to do this sort of portfolio since my stock market account is NOT needed for my retirement income AND I have a fairly HIGH RISK TOLERANCE. In addition I am a fully invested, all the time, LONG TERM investor. (LONG TERM meaning many years, 5, 10, 20, years or more)"

    MY COMMENT

    This portfolio is HIGHLY CONCENTRATED on the big cap side of things. OBVIOUSLY between the funds and my twelve stock holdings there is MUCH doubling and tripling up on the stocks. THAT is INTENTIONAL. I strongly subscribe to the view of Buffett and some others that TOO MUCH diversification kills returns. I do NOT believe in the current diversification FAD that most people seem to now follow.......or think they are following. I DO NOT do bonds and think the current level of bonds held by younger investors.....those under age 50.....is extremely foolish.I DO NOT do market timing or Technical Analysis.
     
    #3111 WXYZ, Jan 23, 2021
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2021
  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    HERE.....is the news of the week.......next week. Three of the GIANTS.....will report earnings.....MICROSOFT, APPLE,and TESLA:

    Apple, Tesla, Microsoft Lead Earnings Rush; Fed Meeting Due: Investing Action Plan

    https://www.investors.com/research/...-microsoft-tesla-report-earnings-fed-meeting/

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    Here's your weekly Investing Action Plan: what you need to know as an investor for the coming week. Top tech stocks will headline the next round of earnings with Apple (AAPL), Facebook (FB), Microsoft (MSFT) and Tesla (TSLA) due to report. Aerospace and defense giants are also on tap as well as oil majors and payment leaders. The Federal Reserve also holds its first policy meeting since Democrats took over the White House and full control of Congress, putting more stimulus in play.

    Stocks To Watch
    Dow (DOW) is just below a 58.28 buy point after breaking out earlier this month, while 61.31 could be an alternate entry. Caterpillar (CAT) is buyable after its bounce off the 10-week line. Celanese (CE) is below a 138.41 buy point, though 140.19 could be an alternate entry. Eastman Chemical (EMN) is just above a 104.93 buy point, but 110.37 is an alternate entry. Nutrien (NTR) is still above a 50.91 buy point. Dow, Caterpillar and Eastman also report earnings next week.

    Fed Meeting
    The central bank releases its policy statement at 2 p.m. on Wednesday, followed by a news conference with Chairman Jerome Powell. With vaccination efforts now picking up steam and potentially massive additional fiscal stimulus in the pipeline, the conversation on Wall Street has turned to when the Fed will begin reversing its monetary accommodation. But don't expect an inkling of a timetable. Loose words could lead the market to tighten ahead of schedule, pushing up long-term Treasury yields. The Fed has every reason to keep its foot on the gas for now. The job market is stuck, and while even more stimulus will be coming, it's not clear how much of President Biden's $1.9 trillion request will pass. Nor has Biden yet to detail step two of his economic plan, including infrastructure and an expansion of health insurance subsidies.

    Apple To Report Holiday-Quarter Results
    The consumer electronics giant reports late Wednesday, and Wall Street expects fiscal Q1 EPS to rise 12% to $1.40 on sales of $102.76 billion, also up 12%. Analysts say Apple saw strong sales over the holiday period for its iPhone 12 handsets as well as its refreshed Mac computers, iPad tablets and wearables. Apple has not given guidance since the Covid-19 pandemic took hold in early 2020. But for the current quarter, analysts are modeling EPS of 90 cents, up 41%, on sales of $73.9 billion, up 27%.

    Microsoft Expected To Post More Gains
    The software leader is due to post December-quarter results late Tuesday. Analysts expect EPS to climb 9% to $1.64 on sales of $40.18 billion, also up 9%. Microsoft has gotten a lift from the work-from-home and distance-learning trends spurred by the Covid-19 pandemic. The company's cloud computing businesses remain its key growth driver, especially Azure infrastructure services and Office 365 productivity software.

    Tesla Earnings To More Than Double
    The EV maker will report late Wednesday after a banner year, as it delivered nearly 500,000 vehicles worldwide and was added to the S&P 500. Analysts see Q4 EPS of 85 cents a share, more than double the year-ago period, on sales of $10 billion, a 35% jump. Deliveries surged 61% in Q4 to 180,570, led by a 74.7% pop from the Model 3. The earnings report comes as Tesla embarks on a pivotal year that will see new factories, models and competitors.

    Regulation Threat Hangs Over Facebook
    The social networking leader reports after the close Wednesday, and the consensus looks or EPS of $3.15, up 23%, on revenue of $26.3 billion, up 25%. Facebook could benefit from an acceleration in ad spending and new initiatives in e-commerce and payments. This includes increased monetization of Instagram, WhatsApp and Messenger. But its battles with antitrust investigators remain, while Congress has signaled plans to toughen regulation of social media after the flood of election-season and coronavirus misinformation.

    More Chipmakers On Deck
    Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Texas Instruments (TXN) are scheduled to release their results late Tuesday. Analysts see AMD's EPS up 47% to 47 cents on sales of $3.02 billion, up 42%. TI's EPS is seen up 20% at $1.34 on sales of $3.6 billion, up 7%. Other semiconductor industry players reporting quarterly results in the week ahead include chipmakers Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) and STMicroelectronics (STM) as well as chip-gear firms Lam Research (LRCX) and Teradyne (TER).

    Payment Leaders To See Profits Drop
    American Express (AXP) reports before the market opens on Tuesday. Analysts expect EPS to drop 38% to $1.26 as sales fall 17% to $9.4 billion. Mastercard (MA) reports early Thursday and is expected to post EPS of $1.53, down 22%, on revenue of $4.02 billion, down 9%. Visa's (V) fiscal Q1 earnings come out late Thursday, and analysts see a 13% decrease in EPS to $1.27 as sales fall 9% to $5.52 billion.

    Top Restaurant Chains To Report
    Coffee king Starbucks (SBUX) reports fiscal Q1 results late Tuesday, and Wall Street expects EPS to drop 31% to 55 cents on revenue of $6.88 billion, down 3%. McDonald's (MCD) reports early Thursday and is expected to earn $1.76 per share, an 11% drop, as revenue slips 0.5% to $5.32 billion. The results come as both chains try to sustain a rebound amid restaurant restrictions and digital orders due to the coronavirus pandemic.

    Boeing, Defense Contractors Due
    Lockheed Martin (LMT) will report before the market opens Tuesday. Analysts see the F-35 producer's EPS climbing 20.6% to $6.38 as revenue rises 7% to $15.88 billion. Boeing (BA) will report early Wednesday. Wall Street is expecting per-share losses to narrow to $1.60 from a $2.33 in the year-ago quarter, while revenue falls 4.8% to $15.25 billion. General Dynamics (GD) will also report early Wednesday. Northrop Grumman (NOC) will announce results early Thursday.

    Aviation Slump To Hit GE, Raytheon Further
    General Electric (GE) reports early Tuesday, and EPS is expected to dive 62% to 8 cents with revenue down 19% to $21.27 billion. Raytheon Technologies (RTX) also reports early Tuesday, and EPS is seen sinking 62% to 73 cents as revenue drops 17% to $16.3 billion. Investors may focus on GE's renewable energy business, which is expected to benefit from the Biden administration's climate agenda. Like GE, Raytheon has been hurt by the collapse in global air travel and Boeing's woes. The industrial giants are aggressively cutting costs to mitigate pandemic impact.

    More Airline Earnings On The Way
    American Airlines (AAL) and Southwest (LUV) report early Thursday. Wall Street expects American to lose $3.89 per share vs. year-ago EPS of $1.15, as revenue tumbles 66% to $3.88 billion. Analysts expect Southwest to lose $1.66 per share, swinging from EPS of 98 cents a year earlier, with revenue falling 63% to $2.14 billion. Earlier this month, United Airlines (UAL) missed Q4 forecasts and Delta Air Lines (DAL) had mixed results.

    Big Oil Eyes Price Recovery
    Chevron (CVX) will report early Friday. Analysts see EPS tumbling 93% to 10 cents with revenue down 24% to $27.6 billion. The oil major will close the books on a bizarre year that saw extreme volatility in crude prices followed by months of stagnation. Oil has been rebounding since late 2020 and so far this year, though delays in vaccine deployment could weigh on demand and prices. Exxon Mobil (XOM) reports Feb. 2.

    Other Earnings
    Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) reports early Tuesday and analysts expect the Dow Jones medical company's EPS to slip 3% to $1.83 while revenue climbs 5% to $21.69 billion.

    Atlassian (TEAM) reports fiscal Q2 earnings late Thursday. Analysts estimate the collaboration software maker will report EPS of 32 cents, down 14%, with revenue rising 15% to $471.7 million.

    MY COMMENT

    REPORTING next week will be the GUTS of the SP500 and the general markets.

    Just look at those names......MICROSOFT, TESLA, APPLE, FACEBOOK, AMD, AMERICAN EXPRESS, McDONALDS, STARBUCKS, JOHNSON & JOHNSON, MASTERCARD, GE, BOEING, LOCKHEED, CHEVRON, EXXON, DELTA, AMERICAN AIRLINES, SOUTHWEST AIRLINES, GENERAL DYNAMICS, NORTHROP, etc, etc.

    ONE of the most critical weeks that we will see with earnings. These are.....obviously....GIANT companies that are held by.....probably....the vast majority of investors....either as individual stocks or in Indexes. A HUGE part of the American economy. The impact will be felt in ALL the averages and Indexes.

    UP to this point.....the second and third quarters of 2020....we have been reporting earnings into the TEETH of the virus. These earnings are the.....beginning........of the transition between the virus impacted earnings and the post-virus time period. From this point on.......the first quarter and on into 2021....we will be dealing with business in the post-virus time span.

    This post-virus world will ESCALATE......and....become the norm......... as the year goes on and the vaccine becomes more and more mainstream. As the economy opens back up and.....hopefully....picks up steam.....we will FINALLY see what the REAL impact of shutting down the economy is on AMERICAN wages, jobs, business, the small business base, interest rates, inflation/deflation, etc, etc.

    It should be an exciting week for investors.......even if the........anticipated.....good earnings dont translate into immediate stock gains. We know from the past few years that the markets......usually.....have been punishing great earnings for a few days after the release. Personally....I dont care what happens in the few days after an earnings release.....I care about what happens over the weeks and months. Good earnings and great earnings will be....money in the bank.....for longer term investors.....and THAT IS WHAT COUNTS.
     
    #3112 WXYZ, Jan 23, 2021
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2021
  13. Trahn Thompson

    Trahn Thompson Active Member

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    ALL NEW INVESTORS..Pay attention to this quote from a very seasoned investor. Just about summed it all up in one simple statement. Happy Investing!
     
  14. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    HERE.....below......are some little.....info blurbs....that I have run into today while randomly cruising around some stock and investing sites. These are each......single...... RANDOM observations, not necessarily interrelated:

    * Next week’s crop of fourth-quarter results - about a quarter of the S&P 500.

    * Concerns over investor crowding? The biggest five technology-related companies account for about 22% of the weight of the S&P 500.

    * Of 66 SP500 companies that have reported earnings.......so far....... 87.9% have beaten Wall Street estimates, well above the long-term average of 65%.

    * Earnings are expected to rise 23.7% this year after falling 14.1% in 2020.

    * Demand for Apple’s iPhone 12 will be a key issue when the company reports on Wednesday...........analysts on average expect the company to report a 13% rise in quarterly earnings.

    * Microsoft is expected to post an 8.7% rise in earnings.

    * Facebook is estimated to report a 25% rise in earnings.

    * The S&P 500 has risen to........earning season...... records so far in the reports to date.

    In my opinion the 87.9% BEAT results......so far.....for earnings compared to the long term average of 65% BEATS is......LIKELY......to continue as we get further into forth quarter results.
     
  15. Dax Martinez

    Dax Martinez Member

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    So in other words investing in Apple, Microsoft and SPY is a good idea?
     
  16. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    WELL.....DAX

    I dont give specific investment advice or recommendations on here since it is after all........the internet.......and there is no way to know much about anyone, their risk tolerance, financial situation, background, investing experience, etc, etc. It is important for anyone on this site or any other investing site to realize that MOST PEOPLE on here are NOT intending to give investing advice when they talk about a company.

    What I will say is.....I do post my ACTUAL portfolio (see above) and I do own Apple, Microsoft, and a SP500 Index Fund. I would not own them if I did not think they were great investments long term.....for me. Of the stocks that I own.....I consider AMAZON the greatest of the bunch.....a once in a lifetime company. It has grown to be the largest holding in ALL the portfolios that I manage.

    DISCLOSURE.....just because I talk or post about some company or stock on here DOES NOT mean that I would own it. For example FACEBOOK above......I am NOT a fan of Facebook and do not see myself ever owning the stock. It is important for EACH PERSON to invest according to their NEEDS and LIKES and what is right for them......investing is a very personal thing.

    The BOTTOM LINE....be careful about following ANY investing advice or recommendations you see on the internet. It is great to get ideas.....BUT....be sure to do your own research before you buy anything.
     
    #3116 WXYZ, Jan 23, 2021
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2021
    TomB16 likes this.
  17. Dax Martinez

    Dax Martinez Member

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    Great advice! Thank you W!

    I agree with you on Facebook stock. I feel like soon enough something newer is going to come that will take over Facebook and Instagram.

    Amazon is a great stock to have! I’ve worked for Amazon before, delivering packages, and I can say regardless that they are so new to the game they have a good system. The rabbit (which is the device they use to go to your stops and scan packages) is way better than FedEx and UPS and easy to use! They also have this thing called “mentor” that they use to track your driving. You need above 800 score to get a bonus. If you use your phone while driving they take off points, also for speeding, hard acceleration, breaking and cornering.
    I also heard rumors that Amazon might be heading toward using electric vans for delivery.
    Overall Amazon has been doing great and they are still new to the delivery game.

    Also before I left the company they had this new thing where people installed this device to their garage door that will automatically open once the driver is at the house and scan the package with the rabbit and hit “open garage” once the package is in you hit “close garage”
    I think that’s a good new feature and I saw more and more people doing it
     
  18. IsuCyclones

    IsuCyclones New Member

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    Just catching up on the forum this afternoon since I’ve had an extremely busy week. Lots of great and informational posts by WXYZ and everyone over the last few days. I decided to add a little more to my AAPL holding this week since I expect they will have great earnings and the trend will continue. I’ll be keeping an eye out for any buying opportunities as I personally feel much more comfortable buying AAPL right now than most other stocks. Just my own personal opinion.

    I need to brag about my week a little bit....my portfolios hit all time highs, my business won a bid on a $3.3mil infrastructure project, beating the 2nd bidder by 11k, and my 11yo son’s basketball team won in overtime by hitting a buzzer beater. It was a great week of personal and professional highs. Even during troubling times, we have to focus on the the small things in life that provide you happiness. I wish all the best to everyone.
     
  19. Dax Martinez

    Dax Martinez Member

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    Awesome! So happy to see others wining!
    Winning that 3.3m bid is a big deal!
    And you must feel like a proud dad after your son’s game!

    I can’t wait to start a family of my own. Right now I’m solo dolo, can be lonely but I learned to love my own company.
     
    IsuCyclones likes this.
  20. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    New high.....check.......wining a big business contract....check.......buzzer beater.....check. YES....that is a pretty nice week.......especially being able to be at, and be part of, your sons basketball game. Of the three that is the most important. Another 10-12 years.....ISU.....and your son will be grown up and joining the family business.......enjoy it while you can......those childhood years go by really fast.
     
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