The Long Term Investor

SORRY....I am not going to argue politics......or the politics of sources of material. I PULL material from many sources......the majority on Democrat leaning sites.....because of this sort of argument. AND....what I post is simply in support of....... MY opinion.

Lets just wait and see who ends upholding the bag when the dust settles....I think I already know....but lets wait and see.

IN fact.....here is the last word that I intend to post on this REDDIT....tempest in a teapot. YES.....it is a meaningless tempest......BECAUSE......nothing will happen to restrict or impact the ELITES in the slightest.

I LOVE the comments below from the ROBINHOOD CEO.....ABSOLUTELY ORWELLIAN:

Robinhood's Tenev: 'We stand with the people making their voices heard' amid GameStop saga

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/robi...ople-making-their-voices-heard-185854728.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev defended the stock trading platform’s actions, telling Yahoo Finance in an interview that he fully supported the class of individual investors behind a week of chaotic market activity.

Amid searing criticism from retail investors, and facing a class action lawsuit and lawmaker scrutiny for its decision to restrict trading in a clutch of highly coveted stocks, the CEO insisted that he was “proud” of Robinhood’s actions during the crisis during a trading week riven by volatility.

“What we’re seeing is really a new era of market dynamics, it started last year with pandemic and its accelerated through the first month of 2021,” Tenev said in an interview, adding that the involvement of smaller investors was part of a “positive transformation” in trading.

Tenev reiterated remarks he made earlier this week, in which he defended retail stock buyers that “have felt like they’ve been talked down to. Lots of them felt like they haven’t been taken seriously,” he said.

“Stepping back, we view that increased access that has enabled everyday investors to access the market as a very positive transformation,” Tenev said on Friday.

“We stand with the people who are making their voices heard through the markets, and showing the world that investing is for everyone, not just for the wealthy and not just the institutions,” he added.

Still, the CEO has come in for sharp criticism from the very same cohort of investors whose interests he purported to back, amid an outcry among retail traders who feel Robinhood betrayed them by blocking trading in key stocks that have unleashed a massive short squeeze.

On Thursday, Robinhood shut down buying of AMC (AMC), BlackBerry (BB), Bed Bath and Beyond (BBBY), Express (EXPR), Koss (KOSS), Naked Brand Corp (NAKD) and Nokia (NOK), allowing users to only liquidate or close positions.

It relaxed some of those restrictions on Friday, which sent their prices on a tear. Yet in the midst of the market frenzy, Robinhood also restricted trading in certain cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile, other retail trading platforms, most notably Charles Schwab (SCHW), did not halt trading amid the short squeeze, raising pointed questions about why Robinhood felt compelled to undercut its core clients.

The chaos of this week’s trading has been largely described as an uprising of small investors against more sophisticated hedge funds — which were clearly caught flatfooted in their bearish bets against brick-and-mortar companies, and have been forced to liquidate them.

Meanwhile, the crisis forced Robinhood to raise more than $1 billion in a bid to meet the spike in cash demands stemming from skyrocketing trading volume. Tenev insisted that the trading app’s actions were appropriate, and described himself as confident in the platform’s ability to navigate volatile markets in the future.

“We’re very confident about our future, that’s really born from people taking control of their financial futures,” he said in response to a question. “That’s something to celebrate, and we see that continuing.”

MY COMMENT

THIS guy is.......absolutely ......either:

* Out of touch with reality.
* A moron.
* Supremely confident in the STUPIDITY of his customers.
* Supremely confident in the power of those that back him and his company.

TAKE your pick.......or......pick ALL the above. I guess we will see which of the above is true.....if.....this....."we are the people"........FEELINGS based baloney.......works. I will be interested to see where they raised the $1BILLION and what trading partners and market makers MANDATED it.

AT this point any further comment....for me....is just a waste of time and typing. ANY that wish to continue the discussion on here.....PLEASE.....FEEL FREE TO DO SO....whether you agree with me or not. SOME forums......this thread.....STILL allow free discussion.

 

WELL.....I was going to post something....anything....about ACTUAL investing....but......EVERY site and source that I scan daily has....NOTHING. It is ALL total soap opera.

So....I may as well go pay some bills.....I will check back tonight.

 

WELCOME Andrew Reichi. Feel free to post any time. this thread is a diverse community of investors.....long term...short term....traders.....anyone that wishes to post.

Carnival is certainly in a world of hurt. We were signed up to do a cruise on RC in May.....we canceled in December. They have now canceled ALL cruises through April 2021. I....suspect....that ALL the cruise lines will be cancelling cruises well beyond the end of April.

Carnival has been as low as $10.60 in Sept 2020 before this virus mess. Also in August of 2020. They.....certainly...... may have some continued down movement in their stock price ahead of them.

 

YES......this is not REDDIT.....it is not like thousands of people are going to run out and buy your stock. Give us a few hints so we can take a guess.

 

OK.....guys. I got a private message from a young person about investing. I am going to post their message here for anyone that wants to reply and give them some ideas. I am going to NOT put up their screen name to preserve their privacy. I will also post what I told them in reply.

MESSAGE:

Hi, I’m 18 and i’m really interested in learning all about the stock market. I thought to message you personally to get help on getting started with the stock market. Currently i’ve invested $200+ on trading 212 with majority in Tesla but i seem to not be making any profit at all. I’m literally losing money i don’t know who to contact for help. I’ve been trying to find stockbrokers who could help me but i haven’t gotten any luck so far. if you could help that would be great.

MY REPLY:

Well XXXXXXXXX.......you are starting at a very young age.....so you have a HUGE advantage.....you have time. ALL investing is a function of time and rate of return.

Look up the rule of 72's. It says that if you take the number 72 and you divide it by a rate of return......what you get is the number of years it will take to double your money at that rate of return. For example......if you had a lump sum invested at a rate of return of 8%......72 divided by 8 is 9......you would double your money in 9 years. So lets say you had your $200......and you could get a rate of return of 10%........72 divided by 10 is 7.2.......you would double your money in 7.2 years from $200 to $400.

This is why it is HUGE for you to be starting to invest at age 18.....this means that you have an extra 8-12 years head start......by investing at such a young age you can get in one or two EXTRA doubles of your money in a lifetime.

So......what I would do.......if I was you......as an investment......with limited funds to invest.....I would put ALL my money into a NASDAQ100 Index fund or ETF. Like the ETF called QQQ. That is what "I" would do. But I am not you...you have to do what is right for you.

So again "if I was you".....I would hang onto my bit of Tesla.....and any future money I would put into a NASDAQ 100 Index fund or ETF. You can not expect to buy a share of a stock like Tesla and immediately make money. You might have to hold it for many years. Same with the NASDAQ 100....it has good potential to average 10-15% per year over the long term. So if someone puts their money into this type of fund......they would be able to double their money in 5-7 years. This is what real investing is all about....not speculating or gambling....but....putting your money in a smart long term investment and allowing time and a good rate of return to do the rest.

Starting at your young age........if you do this over an entire lifetime........you will build up a fortune. I suggest that you read my Long Term Investor thread and feel free to post in the thread any time with questions. People there will be happy to help you.

I used the NASDAQ100 as a potential investment...."if I was you"....since it is an INDEX that holds ALL the hot big tech stocks including Tesla and many other names you will recognize. Google......QQQ....and read up about the NASDAQ100. When you buy this fund you are buying a little bit of 100 different stocks in every share.

I am going to put your question up on the LONG TERM INVESTOR thread and ask people to post and tips or suggestions they have for you. I WILL NOT put your name.....XXXXXXXXX....up there to preserve your privacy.

Congratulations to you.....you are way ahead of most people your age to be thinking about investing and your future.....AMAZING.

MY COMMENT

So this is what I told them. I used the NASDAQ100 since they are younger and the SP500 might be too STAID for a young person that wants to see immediate results. If anyone has suggestions for....XXXXXXXXX.....feel free.

 

I found it very difficult to answer the question above....it is so broad and so specific at the same time. Any other approach is welcome.....or....ideas are very welcome.

 

I just sent an additional message to the young investor....XXXXX...and added the following to what I told them....they replied and asked about Youtube:

"I dont use any Youtube videos on investing since I have been doing it for 45+ years.

BUT....there are many good videos on youtube. Look for anything under the name "Peter Lynch" also look for anything under the name "Warren Buffett" also under the name "Jack Bogle"

So search on Youtube the following

"Investing peter Lynch"

"Investing Jack Bogle"

"Investing Warren Buffett"

Do this and watch everything you can find by these men and....you will learn at the feet of the masters.

Let me know what you think after you watch some of them....good luck XXXXXXXXX."

 

To me this is where it is at......when it comes to posting on a board like this. If there is a....chance.....to help a young person get off to good start in life and managing their money that is.....GOLDEN. I will never know them and they will never know me....but I will take this.....potential (anonymous) legacy......any time I get a shot at it.

 

OBVIOUSLY....we were having a pretty good month until this little black hummingbird tore into the very short term markets. MOST of the current situation is SIMPLY media........obsession......with a story that the public is clicking on like crazy. SO.....with this little January MINI-CORRECTION.....what does this mean for the rest of the year?

Opinion: What January’s market decline means for stock returns in 2021

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/w...-in-2021-11611960535?reflink=mw_share_twitter

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Move over, January: at least two other months have greater predictive power of stock-market returns than you do.

January has a reputation as being able to forecast the U.S. market’s direction over the ensuing 11 months of a year. This alleged ability is known as the “January Predictor” and “January Barometer.”

You’ll be seeing lots of references to this indicator in coming days, now that January is officially in the record books as a “down” month — with the S&P 500 SPX, -1.93% slipping 1.1%. I have written before that the January Predictor rests on a shaky statistical foundation. Financial headlines will nevertheless trumpet the allegedly negative implications of January’s decline for the remainder of 2021.

So let me point out a few other ways in which the Predictor is not worth following.

What’s so special about January?

A good place to start is to recall that January 2020 was also a down month (declining 0.2%) and yet the subsequent 11 months produced a well-above-average gain of 18.4% (assuming dividends were reinvested).

That’s just one data point. Another clue that there’s nothing particularly special about January is that other months have even greater predictive “powers” when forecasting the stock market’s direction over the subsequent 11 months. Since the S&P 500’s creation in 1954, in fact, June has the strongest forecasting ability, followed by February. January is in third place.

Why, then, don’t you read about a June Predictor, or a February Barometer? My hunch is that adherents are less motivated by statistical rigor than by stories and narratives that capture their attention. From a behavioral point of view, the calendar year is a more natural period on which to focus than the February-to-February or June-to-June periods. But psychological significance is different than statistical significance.

The importance of real-time tests

There’s another tell-tale sign that the January Indicator isn’t all that it is cracked up to be: It doesn’t pass real-time tests.

By this I mean tests conducted after it was initially “discovered.” If the January Predictor had been able pass these tests, we would have much greater confidence that it isn’t merely the result of a data-mining exercise in which the historical data are tortured long enough to make a pattern emerge.

But it wasn’t able to. As far as I can tell, the real-time test of the January Predictor begins in 1973. That’s the earliest mention of it on Wall Street, according to an academic study on the subject. Unfortunately, its record since is far less impressive. Since 1973, in fact, not only is it not significant at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use when determining if a pattern is genuine, it is not significant at even the 85% level.

We shouldn’t be surprised; actually, the January Predictor is in good company. Consider a study that appeared last May in the Review of Financial Studies. It examined 452 supposed statistical patterns (or “anomalies”) that prior academic research had found to exist. The authors of this recent study were unable to replicate these results in 82% of the cases. The remaining 18% turned out to be much weaker than originally reported.

No correlation between the magnitude of January’s rise and return over next 11 months

Yet another clue that the January Predictor rests on a shaky statistical foundation is that there is no correlation between the strength of the market in January and its gain over the subsequent 11 months. If there were such a correlation, we might be able to concoct a plausible narrative about investor confidence at the beginning of the year carrying over for the rest of the year.

But there is no such correlation. Because of that absence, to believe in the efficacy of the January Predictor you’d have to believe that a S&P 500 gain of just 0.01 carries just as much predictive power as a gain of 13.2%. That strains credulity.

By the way, I chose this 13.2% in my illustration because it is the biggest January gain for the S&P 500 since its creation in the mid-1950s. That came in 1987. From Jan. 31 of that year through the end of 1987, the S&P 500 lost 9.9%.

To profit from a statistical pattern, you must follow it religiously for years

Finally, even if the January Predictor rested on a solid statistical foundation, you would need to act on it for many years in a row in order to rationally go about trying to profit from it. A good rule of thumb in statistics is that you need a sample of at least 30 before patterns become meaningful. In the case of the January Predictor, this means you would need to follow it for three decades. Furthermore, during those 30 years you would undertake no other transactions except shifting into a 100% equity allocation every Jan. 31 in which the stock market rises in January, and into a 0% allocation if the market in January is down.

Absent that patience and discipline, you are doing little to improve your odds above that of a coin flip."

MY COMMENT

Like MANY....if not most.....market predictors.......this STUFF is simply SUPERSTITION. I dont believe there is even the slightest truth to this type of.....feeling based......stuff. BUT.....even if there was......why in the world would it apply this year....when a very good January was knocked off course by a little 2-4 week.......minor.....but a GREAT media story....event.

We will do just fine over the rest of the year......regardless of January....regardless of whether the groundhog sees it shadow....regardless of whether you walk under a ladder or see a black cat. As usual......it will be the long term investors that invest based on......fundamental.....specific business.....that will do JUST FINE.

IGNORE all the noise....ignore all the media and others dangling some shiny object in front of everyone.....for their own profit. JUST plug away with your investing as you have always done and it will.....all be good.