The Long Term Investor

HERE is some MORE talk from Amazon insiders about the change over.....sounds good to me:

Bezos to remain committed to Amazon as he focuses on other endeavors
Former VP Colin Bryar reflects on Bezos’ tenure, previews outgoing CEO’s future

https://www.foxbusiness.com/business-leaders/amazon-vice-president-jeff-bezos-outgoing-ceos-future

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Former Amazon Vice President Colin Bryar, who also served as chief of staff to Jeff Bezos, says the company’s outgoing CEO will remain committed to Amazon and its success as he pursues other endeavors.

“He said he was going to focus on some as some of his other endeavors, the Blue Origin space, the Day One Fund and climate change initiatives,” Bryar told Stuart Varney on “Varney & Co” on Wednesday. “But he’s also still going to be involved at Amazon on new initiatives, and what we like to call ‘one-way doors,’ decisions that you make that are hard to reverse.”

“He’s still going to be involved in Amazon moving forward, just in a different role,” he added.

Bezos, who founded Amazon in 1994, announced Tuesday he will be departing as CEO and transitioning to a role as executive chairman in the company’s third fiscal quarter.

“In the Exec Chair role, I intend to focus my energies and attention on new products and early initiatives,” Bezos wrote in an email to staffers.

Bryar, who has been described as Bezos’ "shadow," worked alongside Bezos for many years, beginning in 1998 when he first arrived at the company. He reflected on his former boss’ tenure, which he says has been marked by a clear vision to build and grow a company focused on consumers.

“He told me that his goal was to build Earth’s most customer-centric company,” Bryar said of his first time meeting Bezos. “And from that day I met him, he’s really stuck to that mission and vision.”

Bryar said this dedication has been a major factor in the company’s success.

“He holds everyone, including himself, up to incredibly high standards and he won’t compromise on the customer experience … I think that’s one of the things that has made Amazon an enduring company moving forward,” Bryar said.

The former vice president believes it is invention, not wealth, that has driven Bezos as CEO and will continue to do so in his new role.

“He revels in invention and focusing on things that are going to delight the customer,” Bryar said. “That’s where I’ve seen the joy in the laugh come through with Jeff, and I expect that to continue, but just in a slightly different format moving forward.”

Andy Jassy, currently the CEO of Amazon’s highly profitable cloud computing wing, will replace Bezos as CEO. Jassy started in Amazon’s marketing department in 1997."

MY COMMENT

OK. It is a shame that the stock is NOT being rewarded today. They could have delayed this announcement till a few weeks or months down the road and......ALLOWED....the shareholders.....to get the gains that would come today from the great earnings. BUT....ok....it is what it is.

HERE is another one for any that are interested:

What You Need To Know About Andy Jassy, Amazon’s New CEO

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachel...ign=sprinklrForbesTechTwitter&sh=3a6da9001ead

 

AMEN....to the message in this little article. A good summary of where we are and the path forward:

2020’s Historic GDP Downturn—and Recovery—in Perspective
The big bounce is behind; further growth is likely, but keep expectations in check.

https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...oric-gdp-downturn-and-recovery-in-perspective

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Many headlines noted 2020’s US economic downturn was, in some ways, the worst since WWII. GDP’s upturn since, as many also note, hasn’t fully recouped the decline. Yet it has gone a long way toward doing so, with Q3’s rebound accounting for most of the recovery thus far. Thursday’s Q4 report showed it continued but slowed, which highlights two key points: One, most of the recovery seems over. Two, a look under the hood suggests more pedestrian growth likely lies ahead.

GDP staged a big recovery in 2020’s back half, but as economic activity returns to normal, growth likely slows. After Q2’s historic GDP plunge, Q3’s 33.4% annualized rebound erased much of the lockdown-driven decline. Q4 GDP followed with a 4.0% annualized gain. That slowdown was partly because of new restrictions, but also because the vast majority of the reopening rebound is behind us. With full-year numbers in, headlines focused on 2020’s -3.5% annual contraction as the deepest since 1946’s post-war demobilization. But just as noteworthy, in our view, is where Q4 finished relative to Q4 2019, GDP’s peak. It was just -2.5% below the prior high, well above the -10.1% hole at Q2’s trough. After a devastating pandemic and unprecedented economic downturn to start the year, GDP recouped a significant amount of the drop.

You can see this in consumer spending—or, formally, personal consumption expenditures (PCE). Exhibit 1 shows PCE (green line) and its two main components, services (yellow) and goods (blue). Overall, PCE is down just -2.6% from pre-pandemic highs.[ii] But this glosses over interesting detail. Spending on goods not only held up better in Q2 as everyone stockpiled beans and toilet paper, but it boomed in Q3 as shops reopened, passing its peak. However, goods consumption flat-lined in Q4. Households have already unleashed pent-up demand for things they could buy.

Exhibit 1: Lockdowns Still Weigh Heavily on Services Spending




Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, as of 1/28/2021.

Services, however, seemingly have more slack remaining. Services spending—60% of PCE—is still down -6.8% from its pre-recession peak, as many major metropolitan areas closed again in Q4.[iii] It isn’t unreasonable to expect a second reopening bounce. But it probably won’t be as big as Q3’s, considering services consumption has already bounced somewhat. (In Q2, it was down -14.9% from the peak.[iv]) A bounce might also be short-lived, as goods consumption’s jump likely was. Still, it seems reasonable to expect something of a rush in services spending when the economy reopens, alleviating pain on firms that remain somewhat hamstrung by lockdowns.

Another reason not to expect a prolonged growth surge: Businesses didn’t need to work off excesses this time around, underscoring our belief that 2020 wasn’t a traditional recession or business cycle reset. Business investment—the green line in Exhibit 2—is off just -1.3% from its high—very unusual this early in an expansion.[v] This overlooks some finer points though. While investment in equipment (yellow line) and intellectual property (maroon) are at new highs, spending on new structures (blue)—think office and commercial property development—is still hurting. Depending on how post-pandemic work and consumption patterns resume, there may be a boost here. Regardless, structures are only 15% of total business investment and likely won’t determine its overall direction.[vi] More broadly, investment’s fast recovery tells us typical late-cycle growth trends will probably resume, which generally means slower growth. But we think it also highlights the need to watch for new excesses and misallocated investment that weren’t evident in the last go ’round.

Exhibit 2: Business Investment Recovery Isn’t Uniform




Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, as of 1/28/2021.

For stocks, slower growth is fine as long as expectations aren’t outlandish. With froth starting to flow though, keeping an eye on overall sentiment—business, consumer and market—is critical for investors. Don’t let 2020’s sharp downturn and reversal fool you into thinking we are early in the business cycle or that the bull market is young.

MY COMMENT

I agree that this BULL MARKET is NOT young.....but.....with the recovery coming from the pandemic....I believe we might see another 1-2 years of good BULL MARKET. AND....it might even last longer.

As a long term investor......I dont try to anticipate or predict when or if a bull market will start or end.....regardless of the above statement. PLUS.....why do I care? I am NOT a market timer........and......the LABELS that people put on the markets are CRAZY anyway. I have made good money many times.....regardless of the negative labels that the media or others want to pin on some particular market. So......drum roll please.......

I remain fully invested for the long term as usual.

 

LOL......well the market NEVER fails to surprise and entertain. I was green today......by .01%. And....got beat by the SP500 by .09%. SO.....essentially a perfectly FLAT day. I guess it is not too bad considering 7 of 12 positions were down for the day.

 

Interesting....Zukodany....I have never looked at eBay's financials or their quarterly results. I will have to take a look now...you have me curious.

I DO....buy on eBay.....LOTS....over the years....but....I have never sold anything. In fact I bought an oil painting.....of course....on eBay about a month or so ago. By a (deceased).....LISTED Western artist that is nationally recognized. ALL the collectors I know have been EXTREMELY active this year. SO...I think your observations of eBay as a market place are....right on.

On a SIDE NOTE......in my field of Impressionistic and Western art....OFTEN.....what I see being sold on eBay is FAKE. ESPECIALLY.....the higher the price. SO....unless you know what you are doing.......look out and be careful. At times I see some pretty TRICKY descriptions like........."signed lower right, Joe Blow". It does NOT actually say it is by "Joe Blow"....just that is how it is signed. I think a lot of times the seller does not know.....and.....they think just because it has a signature...that is who painted it. SO....a mix of outright fraud and naive sellers that dont know what they are doing.

 

i agree Zukodany.

"eBay is ABSOLUTELY the official collectible open market, I’ve had big big clients from James Halperin, to Anthony scaramucci as well as countless artists and writers buying their own books from me.... never ceases to amaze me... And now, they are on steroids with their new payment system. Great company."

I have bought hundreds of times on eBay myself. It is the number one go-to place for any sort of antique or collectable.

 

DO NOT give up those clown paintings Emmett......your wife is wrong. AND....do not show her this post......EVER.

 

Right over the heads of anyone under the age of about 50-60.....TomB16.

 

Lets hope so Jwalker......but......for a good while now the markets have been totally distracted from ECONOMIC data. AND....the markets often do NOT follow the general economy....they do their own thing. In general......I agree......anything that shows recovery from the pandemic economic shut down......is a GOOD THING.

 

WELL......I have ALL my trades lined up for the account that I discussed a few posts back. $150,000 will go into the 12 individual stocks in the account today......at the open. The funds will be allocated as I discussed in a prior post above. All in all at once.....no market timing.

The individual stocks will "buy" at the open.....the Funds.......$150,000..... will buy after the close tonight at the NAV for today.

NO GUTS NO GLORY.

 

HERE is another general economic story. Personally I think this one is the more important of the two......but....this one will definately be ignored by the media and others....it is just NOT a sexy topic:

U.S. productivity posts biggest drop since 1981 in fourth quarter

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...op-since-1981-in-fourth-quarter-idUSKBN2A41VI

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. worker productivity fell at its steepest pace since 1981 in the fourth quarter, but the trend remains solid as the COVID-19 pandemic weighs heavily on the less productive industries like leisure and hospitality.

The Labor Department said on Thursday nonfarm productivity, which measures hourly output per worker, dropped at a 4.8% annualized rate last quarter. That was the deepest pace of contraction since the second quarter of 1981.

Data for the third quarter was revised higher to show productivity growing at a 5.1% pace instead of the previously reported 4.6% rate. Productivity rose 2.6% in 2020 compared to 1.7% in 2019.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast productivity declining at a 2.8% rate in the fourth quarter. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2019, productivity increased at a 2.5% rate.

The coronavirus pandemic has decimated lower-wage industries, like leisure and hospitality, which economists say tend to be less productive.

Hours worked rose at a 10.7% rate last quarter. That followed a 37.1% pace in the third quarter.

Unit labor costs - the price of labor per single unit of output - rebounded at a 6.8% rate after plunging at a 7.0% rate in the third quarter. Unit labor costs increased at a 5.2% rate from a year ago. They rose 4.3% in 2020 after gaining 1.9% in 2019.

Though labor costs have been distorted by the pandemic’s disproportionate impact on lower-wage industries, the rebound supports expectations of higher inflation this year.

Hourly compensation increased at a 1.7% rate last quarter. That followed a 2.2% pace of decline in the July-September quarter. Compensation increased at a 7.8% rate compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. It grew 7.0% in 2020 after rising 3.6% in 2019.

MY COMMENT

NOT a good thing to see some data for higher inflation and showing higher labor costs. Although......a lot of this data is......STILL DISTORTED......by the economic shut down. I STILL believe inflation is......NOT.....going to be an issue at all. We will REALLY not know.......where we are in terms of economic data.......till about a year from now. By than......we should be .......MOSTLY.......out of the pandemic shadow.

FROM a source that does not matter.....in general:

"Productivity is a crucial factor in production performance of firms and nations. Increasing national productivity can raise living standards because more real income improves people's ability to purchase goods and services, enjoy leisure, improve housing and education and contribute to social and environmental programs. Productivity growth can also help businesses to be more profitable."