LOL.....Zukodany posted recently about the INSANE real estate market in his new area. Today I got my monthly "market report" from the realtor that we and our family use locally. I laughed when I opened it and saw that nearly EVERY category was.....ZERO. ZERO - homes on the market average list price - ZERO number of days on market - ZERO average price per sq foot for listed homes - ZERO etc, etc, etc CRAZY stuff.....nothing available and nothing for sale.....in a general area of 4200 single family homes. ACTUALLY....this is REALLY BAD for realtors trying to survive with NOTHING to sell. I suspect that many will go out of business.....during the greatest sellers market in history.
I spend a lot of time reading in this thread and appreciate both sides of the discussion. We all agree to disagree. Bash away, the people that get offended are the ones that I tend to ignore. Some people will argue with a signpost, others like me walk around to the otherside and listen. I put a lot of weight into Xs views and experience, dont always agree but enjoy the time and effort he INVESTs to better inform us.
Yes Rustic! Everyone has their take on things they can grasp or not. Agree. for the majority of my life I always thought that the stock market is considered gambling. Couldn’t change my mind about it. Guess what happened... That theory went out the window! If we’re stuck on offending each other over disagreements IN SPITE OF OUR OWN DISAGREEMENT WITH OURSELVES THROUGHOUT TIME... we have learned NOTHING. I come from an Italian family... we fight all the time. It’s a family exercise. When we were young we’d even go out and bash each other over our indeferences. But living in a big city taught me to respect everyone and never burn bridges. So unless you’re family, you’d get all the love and respect from me this valentines my man (said with total sarcasm)
My stagnant money has him lubed up with a few option plays. Gives a new meaning to all in. Grab you ankles and take it like a man.
I think I will pass......on "liking"....that last post.....if you dont mind. It was a.....handshake.....not a hug. WOW....a three day weekend with ice and snow....and the whole thread goes to hell. I blame your wife...Zukodany for starting this.
Time to move on from FANTASY......and...get back to reality. HERE is what we are expecting and anticipating next week....keeping in mind that Monday is a market holiday. Walmart earnings, retail sales, and housing data: What to know in the week ahead https://finance.yahoo.com/news/walm...what-to-know-in-the-week-ahead-165333011.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Once traders return from Monday's Presidents Day holiday, data on the strength of the U.S. consumer will be in focus, with the Commerce Department's monthly retail sales report and earnings results from retail giant Walmart (WMT) each on tap. A bevy of housing data is also due for release. Consensus economists are looking for retail sales to rise by 0.9% in January over December, according to Bloomberg-compiled data. This would mark the first increase in three months after a year-end slump, and coincide with the rollout of stimulus checks to most Americans. "The 1.2% month-over-month rebound in retail sales we expect in January is partly due to a price-related increase in gasoline sales, but we think underlying control group and food services spending also picked up for the first time since September," Michael Pearce, senior U.S. economist for Capital Economics, wrote in a note Friday. "Stimulus checks hit most Americans' bank accounts in early January, and new infection numbers fell throughout the month in most states. A rate of high-frequency indicators, including card transaction data, suggest that spending has begun to stabilize or even edge up." Recent credit card transaction data from Bank of America appeared to reflect stronger purchasing trends at the beginning of the year. "Since the beginning of the year, total card spending is running at an average 5.6% year-over-year pace, up notably from the December average of 2.5% year-over-year," Bank of America economists Michelle Meyer and Anna Zhou wrote in a note last week. "Looking at the monthly average, we find that retail sales ex-autos increased an impressive 4.6% month-over-month seasonally adjusted for January, setting up for what we expect to be a very strong Census Bureau report on February 17." December's 0.7% drop in monthly retail sales came as sales at restaurants, bars, department stores and electronic stores slid further. Even sales in the category of "non-store retailers" — which approximates e-commerce sales — fell in December, but remained higher by more than 19% over the same month last year. And while retail sales have fallen on a month-over-month basis for the past three months, they have remained higher year-over-year to exceed pre-COVID levels since the summer. Walmart earnings One retailer in particular, however, has so far seen sales consistently power higher throughout much of the pandemic. Walmart's fourth-quarter results, due for release Thursday afternoon, are likely to show another surge in sales growth and profitability, as customers especially turned to big-box retailers to consolidate shopping trips during the pandemic. Same-store sales in the U.S. are expected to grow another 6.4%, matching the growth rate from the third quarter. Investors will also be looking to see whether Walmart managed to maintain momentum in e-commerce to keep pace with competitors like Amazon (AMZN) and Target (TGT). The company grew e-commerce sales 79% in the third quarter, though this slowed from the 97% rate from the prior period. Walmart's management also offered only scant details on the rollout of Walmart+, its competitor to Amazon Prime, which launched in September. And so far the company has not officially disclosed the number of paid members to the subscription service. Plus, COVID-19 costs may have continued to cut into the company's margins: Walmart reported $600 million in incremental expenses due to the virus in the third quarter, mostly due to bonuses for employees and safety measures. Results from Walmart's fiscal fourth quarter, which spans from November through January, will also include impacts from Black Friday and the holiday shopping season, which took on a different format this year due to the pandemic. Walmart offered additional days of Black Friday deals on its website and in stores to mitigate some of the foot traffic to stores on the traditional shopping extravaganza, matching a similar strategy taken by peer retailers like Target around the holiday. Housing data The U.S. housing market has been one of the standout parts of the economy during the pandemic, with home purchases and refinances soaring against a backdrop of ultra-low interest rates. This week's housing data is expected to reflect some moderation in this sector. The Commerce Department's housing starts report on Thursday is expected to show that both new-home construction and permits for future construction retreated from a 14-year high. December's housing starts had surged 5.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.669 million, the highest level since 2006. After such a strong year-end bounce, consensus economists are looking for starts to tick down by 0.7% in January. "Sharp increases in single-family homes in the Midwest and South, which led the jump in housing starts in December, appear unsustainable and likely reverted partially in January. We expect a 3.6% decline in national single-family housing starts," Nomura economist Lewis Alexander wrote in a note. "That said, a broad-based rise in permits for new single-family homes in December suggests the slowdown in January should be temporary." Permits, which serve as a gauge of future homebuilding, are expected to drop by 2.1% after a 4.2% jump in December, which had also brought permits to the highest level since 2006. Existing home sales, due out from the National Association of Realtors on Friday, is also expected to show a drop compared to December, as winter weather compounded with mounting affordability and supply pressures pull down buyer activity. "Pending home sales, contract signings that lead existing home sales (contract closings), have remained relative weak with four consecutive monthly declines starting in September," Alexander added. "While remaining at an elevated level, supply shortages and affordability concerns amid rapid home price appreciation appear to be weighing on sales." Earnings Calendar Monday: N/A Tuesday: CVS (CVS), Advance Auto Parts (AAP), Palantir (PLTR) before market open; Avis Budget Group (CAR), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Devon Energy Corporation (DVN), American International Group (AIG) after market close Wednesday: Hilton Worldwide (HLT), Shopify (SHOP) before market open; Boston Beer Company (SAM), Twilio (TWLO), Marathon Oil (MRO), The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) after market close Thursday: Walmart (WMT), Marriott (MAR) before market open; Applied Materials (AMAT), Planet Fitness (PLNT), Dropbox (DBX), TripAdvisor (TRIP), Roku (ROKU) after market close Friday: Deere (DE) before market open Economic Calendar Monday: N/A Tuesday: Empire Manufacturing, February (6.0 expected, 3.5 in January); Total Net TIC Flows, December ($214.1 billion in November); Net Long-Term TIC Flows, December ($149.2 billion in November) Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended February 12 (-4.1% during prior week); Producer Price Index, month-over-month, January (0.2% expected, 0.1% in December); Producer Price Index excluding food and energy, month-over-month, January (0.2% expected, 0.1% in December); Producer Price Index, year-over-year, January (0.8% expected, 0.8% in November); Producer Price Index excluding food and energy, year-over-year, January (1.1% expected, 1.2% in December); Retail Sales advance, month-over-month, January (0.9% expected, -0.7% in December); Retail Sales excluding autos and gas, month-over-month, January (0.9% expected, -1.4% in December); Industrial Production month-over-month, January (0.4% expected, 1.6% in December); Capacity Utilization, January (74.9% expected, 74.5% in December); NAHB Housing Market Index, February (83 expected, 83 in January); FOMC Meeting Minutes Thursday: Housing starts, January (1.650 million expected, 1.669 million in December); Building Permits, January (1.670 million expected, 1.704 million in December); Initial jobless claims, week ended February 13 (793,000 during prior week); Continuing claims, week ended Feb. 6 (4.545 million during prior week); Import Price Index, month-over-month, January (1.0% expected, 0.9% in December); Export Price Index, month-over-month, January (1.0% expected, 1.1% in December) Friday: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, February preliminary (58.8 expected, 59.2 in January); Markit US Composite PMI, February preliminary (58.7 in January); Markit U.S. Services PMI, February preliminary (57.8 expected, 58.3 in January); Existing home sales, January (6.55 million expected, 6.76 million in December)" MY COMMENT The MAJORITY of the economic data.....will be ignored as usual. If a DOWN day happens to coincide with some important indicator....no doubt some in the media will make a connection....if they have no other excuse. We are cleaning up the tail end of earnings with Walmart and Applied Materials.....probably.....being the most important. ALL in all.....I am looking for another nice......but volatile.....normal week.
Fantastic. I am brand new to this, so getting perspective on multiple different investing styles will be amazing. Thanks!
WELCOME.....Stocksguru2000. You are welcome to post any time.....any investing or money content. There is MUCH long term investing content on here....but.....also a good group of other types of investors.....so......any content is welcome.
SO....for those that are interested in Tesla....here is some news that "might" be a positive indicator for the future: Tesla to Start Making Cars in India, Targeting Vast Market https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-start-making-cars-india-051512043.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Tesla Inc. is closing in on an agreement to make electric vehicles in India for the first time, opening up a new growth opportunity after setting up production in China. Tesla has picked Karnataka, a southern state whose capital is Bangalore, for its first plant, the state’s chief minister said over the weekend. The automaker has been negotiating with local officials for six months and is actively considering car assembly in the suburbs of Bangalore, people familiar with the matter said. Tesla didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment and did not confirm the minister’s statement. The company is conducting due diligence for office real estate in the region and plans to set up an R&D facility, said the people, asking not to be named because the matter is private. Tesla has focused on Bangalore because it’s shaping up to be a hub for electric vehicles and aerospace manufacturing talent, they said. Tesla has incorporated its Indian unit and registered offices in downtown Bangalore. Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk all but confirmed Tesla would enter India in January after months of speculation. The world’s richest man on Jan. 13 tweeted “as promised” in response to a report on a Tesla-focused blog that the automaker was in talks with several Indian states to open an office, showrooms, a research and development center -- and possibly a factory. That revelation sparked euphoria from locals, such as Nikhil Chaudhary, a 20-year-old student at the University of Delhi who helped start India’s Tesla fan club in 2019. Despite the hype, Tesla’s foray into India may well prove challenging. The country hasn’t yet rolled out the welcome mat for EVs like neighbor China, where Tesla set up its first factory outside of the U.S. and now dominates sales of premium EVs. EVs account for about 5% of China’s annual car sales, according to BloombergNEF, compared to less than 1% in India. “Considering the price of a Tesla, Elon Musk probably won’t be able to sell an EV to most of the population in emerging economies,” said Pedro Pacheco, a Munich-based senior research director at Gartner Inc. “However, looking at the size of the population and the potential for economic growth, Tesla will probably target a fast-growing group of affluent individuals that, in absolute terms, compares quite favorably to what we see in many developed countries.” Charging Spots Palo Alto, California-based Tesla may also use any Indian factory as an export base, leveraging several markets at the same time, Pacheco said. The expensive cost of a Tesla is viewed as a sticking point by other market watchers, too. Mumbai-based Basudeb Banerjee, an analyst at Ambit Capital Pvt, noted that the “size of the luxury car market in India is minuscule with brands like BMW, Mercedes, Audi and Jaguar Land Rover accounting for just 30,000 to 50,000 sales annually.” And despite India’s broader potential, charging infrastructure remains another impediment to large-scale EV adoption. According to the International Energy Agency, around 60% of the world’s public slow- and fast-charging spots are in China. As Chinese carmakers roll out competitive EV models and develop a diverse ecosystem, the country is “heading toward disrupting the current global auto industry landscape,” UBS Group AG analysts wrote in a report last month. India has been making similar moves, but not yet on the same scale. In 2015, it launched a Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Hybrid and EV (FAME) plan, with a 9 billion rupee ($123 million) commitment to subsidies that cover everything from electric tricycles to buses, according to the IEA. A second generation of the FAME program introduced in 2019 was larger, with 100 billion rupees to encourage EV purchases and build out charging infrastructure. India also cut the goods and services tax on EVs to 5% from 12%, effective August 2019, much lower than the levies of as much as 28% slapped on other motor vehicles, which have attracted criticism from companies like Toyota Motor Corp." MY COMMENT I would not hold my breath on INDIA becoming a big contributor to sales and profits for Tesla. BUT....diversifying production capability in that region......away from China.....is a very smart move. I have mixed feelings about Tesla....long term. Yes....I am a shareholder. BUT....they remain a speculative holding and there is no guarantee what their future will be......niche player....of big time operator. At the moment.....they are the ultimate in electric vehicle. But......EVERYONE will be doing an EV in the near future. How this industry shakes out is very much up in the air at this early date in the history of the EV. I like the fact that they are in a RACE against themselves to EXPAND production capability and their footprint around the world. I like the URGENCY of what they are doing. AND....there is something to be said for being the best and the first. BUT...when it comes to the AUTO industry.....I am not sure much of this will matter long term. I will....of course.....continue to hold my "profit" shares for the long term....but....at the same time I am NOT a ZEALOT.....if they do not perform on a fundamental financial level.....I will evaluate at that time and if justified I will sell. They are STILL a very young company and the future is very much up in the air.......so.....time will tell.
speaking of tesla, just read that numerous wind turbines are frozen in west texas. also, the wickedly cold weather has resulted in power outages in texas and elsewhere. how are the tesla owners going to charge their batteries? is this what global warming is supposed to look like?
NICE out today. About 6-8 inches of new snow.....perfect snow for skiing or sledding. The Temperatures are in the high teens.....with sunshine and blue sky. Our area is doing....some....rolling blackouts. We are not seeing any so far. We are keeping all lights and electric use to the minimum........just TV and computer......to help out. We dont use much anyway.....since....every light in our house is an LED....even the 40-50 ceiling cans. We are lucky that the primary source of electric power in the state is natural gas or coal fired power plants....especially.....since at least half the windmills are frozen and useless in West Texas. They represent about 20-25% of the states power. We are also lucky that in most cities and towns and suburban areas....... the primary source of heat is natural gas. Gas seems to also be the preferred energy source for stoves, dryers, and hot water in many areas of Texas.
The markets I am seeing around the world....either closed with nice gains.....or are currently open with nice gains....except for Mexico. Stock futures for the USA......are STRONGLY positive. Of course....meaningless......advance data.....but......a good OMEN. I have been waiting for the markets to have one of those.....EXPLOSIVE.....sustained RUNS. I think there is a good "chance" we are going to see one soon. Of course....being very long term.....I will take it now or I will take it later....either one is a WIN....and....inevitable. I realized earlier today that I am RARELY seeing anything AT ALL.....in the media or otherwise..... about International investing. I am NOT a fan of International and hold NO International stocks or funds and have not for a long time now. Last time I held anything International....it was the Dodge & Cox International Stock Fund and that was a long time ago. I dont see any need or reason to hold any International investments since.....ALL...my big cap, American, dominant, companies are world wide leaders in their field and with their products. I have ZERO interest in emerging or developing or third world country investments.
Going to be some nervous people that have no electricity or a way to monitor accounts the next few days. Several more states are showing outages since I posted the monitoring site. Stay warm and safe. Oil is rising and some of you might look into the oil stocks. I have noticed a couple other sectors that haven't recovered from the recent GME squeeze sell-off. Some solid companies out there that were simply victims of the time.
Last site that I posted on....I spent many many hours and many years debating with some of the posters about INFLATION. THEY.....were of the opinion that we were headed toward inflation....with some....even convinced it would be hyper-inflation. My typical reply.....YES....there is NO inflation. MY CURRENT OPINION......YES......there is NO inflation. Here is part of an article that is subscriber ONLY.....but you get the idea from this little bit......good news for investors regarding inflation and treasury yields. The FED will have NO problem holding rates low for a long time U.S. Treasury Yields Fall After Lackluster Inflation Data Data indicates investors will have to wait longer for increase in consumer prices that many have been expecting https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-treasury-yields-fall-after-lackluster-inflation-data-11612976150 "U.S. government-bond prices climbed Wednesday after soft inflation data indicated that investors will have to wait longer for the big increase in consumer prices that many have been expecting this year. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note settled at 1.133%, according to Tradeweb, down from 1.174% before the data was released and 1.156% Tuesday. Yields, which fall when bond prices rise, dropped after the Labor Department said core consumer prices, excluding the often volatile food and energy categories, remained unchanged in January compared with the previous month. Core prices were also flat in December after a downward revision to the earlier estimate. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected a 0.1% increase in core prices in January." Overall, U.S. government-bond prices climbed Wednesday after soft inflation data indicated that investors will have to wait longer for the big increase in consumer prices that many have been expecting this year. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note settled at 1.133%, according to Tradeweb, down from 1.174% before the data was released and 1.156% Tuesday. Yields, which fall when bond prices rise, dropped after the Labor Department said core consumer prices, excluding the often volatile food and energy categories, remained unchanged in January compared with the previous month. Core prices were also flat in December after a downward revision to the earlier estimate. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected a 0.1% increase in core prices in January. Overall, the data indicates that “there’s just no real significant underlying inflationary pressure,” said Thomas Simons, senior vice president and money-market economist in the fixed-income group at Jefferies LLC." MY COMMENT I LOVE it...... “there’s just no real significant underlying inflationary pressure,” NOT surprised.......I see NO indication of any sort of BAD inflation. In fact we could probably use a little MORE inflation. A certain level of inflation is a good thing and necessary for an healthy economy. Why people.....especially people that are too young to have been around and investing in the early 1980's..........seem to ALWAYS think we are on the verge of inflation or hyper-inflation....is a mystery to me. They have never experienced it in their adult life. The last and only time we have had an inflation problem in the last.......50 YEARS.....was in the early 1980's. It is SIMPLY.......the ECONOMIC BOGYMAN. In fact if you look at the data and many of the FED comments over the past......12 YEARS.....much of the concern is with DEFLATION. AND.....as usual.....the economists with their consensus.....were WRONG....as usual.
