The Long Term Investor

Ask the......Modern Monetary Theorists......the government....the FED.....and ALL the Keynesian Economists. I am sure they have the answer somewhere....probably locked up in some big bank vault to keep it safe.

 

You may have the answer there....Rustic1.....bring back the gold standard.

 

WELL.....here we are with a market that just wants to go down...so it is. The....CRYBABY....WHINING....SELF-ABSORBED....modern market. I guess that is to be expected in the world today. There are a couple of EXCUSES....here is one.....but this "stuff" is just.....excuses.

Jobless claims: Another 861,000 Americans filed new unemployment claims

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/week...ended-february-13-labor-market-190229296.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Weekly unemployment claims unexpectedly surged last week, rising above 800,000 as the labor market recovery stalled.

The Department of Labor released its weekly report on new jobless claims Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here were the main metrics from the report, compared to consensus data compiled by Bloomberg:

• Initial jobless claims, week ended February 13: 861,000 vs. 773,000 expected and an upwardly revised 848,000 during prior week
  
• Continuing claims, week ended February 6: 4.494 million vs. 4.425 million expected and an upwardly revised 4.558 million during prior week
  

At 861,000, new jobless claims posted a surprise back-to-back weekly increase to reach the highest level in one month. The prior week's new claims were also upwardly revised to 848,000, from the 793,000 reported previously.

The four week moving average for new claims ticked down slightly by 3,500 to 833,250, as claims steadied at an elevated level after a December and January surge. And new weekly claims remain multiples above their levels from before the pandemic, when claims were coming in at an average of just over 200,000 per week.

On a state-by-state basis, some populous states again reported large increases in new claims for the week ended February 13, contributing heavily to the overall rise. Illinois saw more than 33,000 new claims filed last week, on an unadjusted basis, while California estimated that 20,600 claims were filed. Others, however, saw notable decreases, including Texas with a drop of 12,400 unadjusted new claims, and Georgia with a drop of nearly 6,000.

The jump in overall new claims diverged considerably from consensus estimates, which had forecast back-to-back weeks of initial claims below 800,000. Falling COVID-19 case counts along with additional government stimulus have helped buoy consumer spending and were expected to catalyze faster improvements in the labor market. On Wednesday, new data showed that retail sales rose at the fastest pace in seven months in January, aided by additional unemployment benefits and direct checks to consumers. The increase in consumption and in hiring is expected to pick up as increasing vaccinations allow a greater number of businesses and services to resume.

"An improved near-term outlook for the pandemic, with new cases and hospitalizations both slowing, should be positive for leisure and hospitality," Nomura Chief Economist Lewis Alexander wrote in a recent note. "However, downside risks persist."

The March cliff for federal unemployment benefits remains one such concern, with the federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation programs both scheduled to lapse in less than a month. More than 11.7 million Americans were claimants on either of these programs as of late January, comprising the majority of the 18.3 million Americans claiming benefits across all programs, Thursday's report showed. However, Democratic lawmakers have been pushing to pass another robust virus relief package before mid-March to avoid the expiration of benefits."

MY COMMENT

LEST SEE.....where to begin. FIRST....the always hapless economists....WRONG as usual. Too easy of a target so I will not beat up on them.

Is it REALLY a.....surprise....that states like Texas and Georgia are the bright spots and states like Illinois......suck? NO.....either open the economy or pay the price. Either be a business friendly state....or pay the price.

I love the opening line....that unemployment claims......"UNEXPECTEDLY".....surged. WELL....pretty much what I expected.....and what I expect going forward for the next four years. We have seen this picture in the past and it is NOT a mystery.

Without getting into politics......policies that are negative toward business, do NOTHING to help small business, jawboning policies that will hurt and hinder business....is not productive to jobs. The policies, taxes, regulations, and entire focus of the next four years is NOT going to be conducive to employment. I could say....you get what you vote for....but I will not. It is hard to discuss employment.....without.....getting into government and political policy and how it impacts the economy and....especially.....jobs. BUT...I do NOT want to open that NASTY door on this thread. SO.....I will remain MUTE.

It has been a year since we decided to close down the entire economy for.....two weeks.....to flatten the curve. It is TIME for EVERY state to reopen....especially small business.

 

HERE is the second hammer on the markets today. Walmart.

Walmart shares fall on earnings miss, retailer sees sales growth slowing in coming year

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/18/walmart-wmt-earnings-q4-2021.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Key Points

• Walmart’s fourth-quarter earnings missed Wall Street’s expectations as it tries to turn pandemic gains into sustained momentum and higher profitability.
• The big-box retailer’s e-commerce sales in the U.S. grew by 69% and its same-store sales in the U.S. grew by 8.6%.
• Walmart CEO Doug McMillon said it will boost the wage of U.S. workers, raising the average for hourly employees to above $15 per hour.

Walmart on Thursday reported fourth-quarter earnings that fell short of Wall Street’s expectations as the retailer aims to turn the strength of its e-commerce business during the pandemic into lasting momentum and higher profits by boosting investment.

Shares were down about 6% in premarket trading, as investors reacted to the retailer’s warning that it expects sales to moderate this year. It said earnings per share will decline slightly, but will range flat to higher after excluding divestitures.

The big-box retailer has benefited from pandemic trends, as Americans buy more groceries, cleaning products and other essentials. It also got a boost in the fiscal fourth quarter as many customers spent their stimulus checks. But the pandemic has also increased its costs — in the fourth quarter alone Covid-related expenses tallied $1.1 billion.

Part of Walmart’s recent strength has come from investments it made long before the health crisis to boost its online business so it could provide services like curbside pickup and speedy delivery.

Walmart CEO Doug McMillon said at a virtual investor conference Thursday that it is retooling its business to better serve customers, tap new revenue streams and create a diverse ecosystem of services, from delivering groceries to people’s fridges to offering annual health checkups and new kinds of financial services. It’s also bulking up its advertising business.

“Think of it as a flywheel that’s spinning, powered by a mutually reinforcing set of assets,” he said, in explaining how each of the businesses will support each other.

He said it will step up investments to adjust to the significant ways the pandemic has transformed the retail business. For example, he said Walmart will spend on automation to speed up the number of curbside pickup orders it can fill.



All told, Walmart is targeting about $14 billion in capital expenditures this fiscal year, up from a rate of $10 billion to $11 billion, as it invests in supply chain, automation and improvements to the customer experience, the company’s CFO Brett Biggs said.

McMillon described Walmart+, its subscription service, as “an important piece of our strategy.” He said the membership program, which launched in the fall, will drive repeat purchases by customers and give the company valuable data it could use to tailor their experience and grow its ads business. The service costs $98 a year or $12.95 a month.

He said it will also boost the wages of U.S. workers, raising the average for hourly employees to above $15 per hour.

“This is a time to be even more aggressive because of the opportunity we see in front of us,” he said in a news release. “The strategy, team and capabilities are in place. We have momentum with customers, and our financial position is strong.”

Stimulus boosted sales
In the latest quarter, Walmart’s e-commerce sales in the U.S. grew by 69% — a large number, but the slowest growth rate since the start of the global health crisis. Same-store sales in the U.S. grew by 8.6%, higher than the 5.8% increase expected by a StreetAccount survey. Its membership subsidiary Sam’s Club also reported low single-digit same-store sales growth, excluding fuel and tobacco.

For the three months ended Jan. 31, Walmart posted a loss of $2.09 billion, or 74 cents per share, compared with earnings of $4.14 billion, or $1.45 share, a year earlier.The company said a loss on its U.K. and Japanese operations reduced earnings by $2.66 per share, which was partially offset by a gain of 49 cents per share on equity investments.

Excluding these and other items, Walmart earned $1.39 per share, missing analyst estimates.

Total revenue grew by 7.3% to $152.1 billionfrom $141.67 billion a year earlier, toppingWall Street’s expectations of $148.30 billion.

Sam’s Club reported same-store sales grew by 8.5% excluding fuel and tobacco, while its e-commerce sales jumped by 42%.

Biggs told CNBC the company could get another boost if the government approves a new round of stimulus payments.

“When money hits we see spending pick up pretty quickly and I would anticipate if we get another round of stimulus, which is obviously being debated, that we would see something similar,” he said.

E-commerce sales growth ebbs
The decelerating pace of e-commerce growth rate points to some challenges it will face as tailwinds from the global health crisis trends fade. More Americans are getting Covid vaccines and can spend their budget in other ways, such as going out to dinner or filling up the gas tank on a commute back to the office.



Walmart is also under pressure to turn thriving parts of its business into money-makers. Online services that have gained popularity, such as curbside pickup, require additional labor as employees pick and pack orders. That translates to higher labor costs that Walmart has not been passing on to its customers, even as more take advantage of the convenience of shopping online.

Walmart’s e-commerce business has had dramatic gains, but it has not yet turned a profit. However, Biggs said its e-commerce margins continue to improve.

Walmart is raising its dividend by a penny to 55 cents per share and approved a $20 billion stock buyback program.

MY COMMENT

The last....first....how obscene that they raise the dividend a penny....but...plan to do stock buybacks of $20 billion. This stock buyback "stuff" is a total "joke". What a waste of money.

Other than that....very negative earnings.......and.....much corporate happy talk by management. Just loads of...blah, blah, blah.....and....excuses. Just a really poor showing in general.

So glad that I do not own this company......and....if I did.....this earnings report would give me real doubt about where they are headed over the next few years.

This stock is going to be a real drag on the markets today.

 

LETS.....HOPE....that the AI programs and other program trading platforms....see this as an opportunity and swoop in and do some buying today. That might give us.....some...hope for moderation of the losses later in the day.

 

I post this story because it is very interesting. I WILL NOT ever own FB.....I just have never been comfortable with the company as a business. If I was a shareholder this sort of business move would give me pause. Picking a fight with a.....good size economy.....and a country.....is NOT a good business move.

Facebook 'unfriends' Australia: global uproar as news pages go dark

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...al-uproar-as-news-pages-go-dark-idUSKBN2AI02A

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"SYDNEY (Reuters) - Facebook faced a worldwide backlash from publishers and politicians on Thursday after blocking news feeds in Australia in a surprise escalation of a dispute with the government over a law to require it to share revenue from news.

Facebook wiped out pages from Australian state governments and charities as well as from domestic and international news organisations, three days before the launch of a nationwide COVID-19 vaccination programme.

Though the measure was limited to Australia, denunciations came from far afield, with politicians elsewhere describing it as an attempt to put pressure on governments that are considering similar measures around the world.

“Facebook’s actions to unfriend Australia today, cutting off essential information services on health and emergency services, were as arrogant as they were disappointing,” Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison wrote on his own Facebook page.

“These actions will only confirm the concerns that an increasing number of countries are expressing about the behaviour of Big Tech companies who think they are bigger than governments and that the rules should not apply to them.”

The dispute centres on a planned Australian law that would require Facebook and Alphabet Inc’s Google to reach commercial deals to pay news outlets whose links drive traffic to their platforms, or agree a price through arbitration.

Facebook said it had blocked a wide swathe of pages because the draft law did not clearly define news content. It said its commitment to combat misinformation had not changed, and it would restore pages that were taken down by mistake.

“The actions we’re taking are focused on restricting publishers and people in Australia from sharing or viewing Australian and international news content,” a company spokesman said. “As the law does not provide clear guidance on the definition of news content, we have taken a broad definition in order to respect the law as drafted.”

The head of the British parliamentary committee overseeing the media industry, Julian Knight, was among politicians abroad who thought the message was aimed far beyond Australia.

“This action - this bully boy action - that they’ve undertaken in Australia will I think ignite a desire to go further amongst legislators around the world,” Knight told Reuters.

“I think they’re almost using Australia as a test of strength for global democracies as to whether or not they wish to impose restrictions on the way in which they do business,” he said. “So, we’re all behind Australia in my view.”

News publishers saw Facebook’s tactics as evidence that the company, which also owns Instagram and WhatsApp, cannot be trusted as the gatekeeper for their industry.

Henry Faure Walker, chairman of Britain’s News Media Association industry group, said banning news during a global pandemic was “a classic example of a monopoly power being the schoolyard bully, trying to protect its dominant position with scant regard for the citizens and customers it supposedly serves.”

The head of Germany’s BDZV news publishers’ association, Dietmar Wolff, said: “It is high time that governments all over the world limit the market power of the gatekeeper platforms.”

Facebook shares traded down 1.5% on Thursday.

MY COMMENT

If I was a shareholder I would NOT be pleased at all. This is really....FOOLISH...for a business. HOPEFULLY.....they will come to their senses and not let things get further out of hand. it is a LOSING game for a private business to get into a big fight with the.......14th largest.......economy in the world. What in the world is their company management thinking?

If they are not careful they are going to set in motion a HUGE push to take down ALL of the big tech companies as dangerous and out of control monopolies. As a shareholder of some of the others......this is NOT a good thing. I HATE the idea of companies that I own......being impacted......by this insane business move against an entire country and government.

This reminds me of the old saying:

"Never argue with a man who buys ink by the barrel."

BUT.....in this case.....never get into a fight with those that have the power and ability to legislate and regulate you out of existence. From a business standpoint....this is really foolish....to throw down the gauntlet....to an ENTIRE country.

THIS....is a level of corporate arrogance that is off the charts.

I am curious what the views are of any FB shareholders on here.