The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I agree. I invest SOLELY for making money. I NEVER allow politics, morality, or.....whatever........ to get in the way. As long as the company and business is....legal.....and....acting legally.....I ignore the rest.
     
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  2. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    Lol legally apparently is following the footsteps of morality as of late...
    After this country has been burned to the ground for 6-8 months with cheering applause from the usual suspects I wouldn’t be looking for anything legally surfacing anytime soon...
    These dangerous power plays in social media are just a signals to the masses of “who’s in control”, they have absolutely nothing to do with what is or not legal.
    dont like it? Use a different platform!
    OWWWW! There is no other platform! (Said in my best Dave Chappell impersonation voice)
    Enjoy the show everyone!
     
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  3. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    Hope everything is well with you and your family W!
    I’ve seen some horrible reports coming from your neck of the woods. Very sad.
    We are all praying for Texas
     
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  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Yeah....we are fine. We have been housebound for the most part. My sister had an outside pipe burst so her water had to be turned off....so she is at our house. I was able to drive over to her house yesterday and get her. So far we have not lost power or water. The worst is over now. The temperatures will rise greatly over the next couple of days.....but it will still be in the teens tonight.

    We still have snow on the roof and about 3-6 inches of icy/slushy/snow on the ground. It snowed for a couple of hours mid day today.....but nothing accumulated on the ground. Our neighborhood.....4200 homes....has its own water system and it is fine. ALL of Austin is under a mandatory boil water order.

    Our heat and stove and fireplace and hot water are ALL natural gas....so no problems. As I sit here I hear snow sliding off the roof every once in a while. Giant ice-cycles hanging off the roof next door......2-4 feet long.
     
    #3704 WXYZ, Feb 18, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 18, 2021
  5. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    WELL.....I looked at my accounts a minute ago.....and.....surprise.....they are green. BUCKING the averages today. I "hope" they can hang in there till the close. I would like to rack up another green day this week and a SP500 beat.

    I am.....also.....thinking that we will see even MORE strength as we head to the close over the next 45 minutes.
     
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  6. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    Ugh, a pipe burst, those could be devastating!
    We’ve had one occur 2 years ago and that was a TOTAL mess! I had to clear the whole floor out. The FDNY came over and assessed it was indeed over the freezing temperatures. The main T connecting the sprinkler head had raptured... I will never forget that night!
    Hope they can fix her house soon!
     
  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Luckily.....it is an outside faucet....so....no damage inside. She has an appointment with the plumber for March 2.

    One of my kids had a....second floor.... toilet hose burst in the middle of the night 1.5 years ago. They were asleep.....when they woke up water was all over the first floor 4-6 inches deep and pouring through all the first floor ceilings like a downpour. We got a call from them about 4AM and told them to call the Fire Dept.

    It is amazing how destructive that small depth of water can be to walls, molding, furniture, etc. Service Pro was on site within hours. It took four days to dry and dehumidify...with the bottom 2 feet of sheet-rock cut off where it could be salvaged....other areas...walls and ceilings pulled down. The cost for Service Pro for the 4 days....about $25,000.....just for drying and dehumidifying. The total cost for repair and furniture, and everything about $100,000. The contractor they had....from the Insurance company....was a nightmare. The 6 week job took them about 6 months. They ended up living at the nearby Residence Inn for that time at insurance company expense.
     
  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    WELL.....a moral victory today....I was green by .02%. But....green is green. That gave me a beat of the SP500 by .46%. I will GLADLY take it considering the day in the markets. Six positions UP....and....six positions down for the day.
     
  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    WELL....so far this week I am positive......in the green.....for two of the three market days. ALSO....have two out of three....beats....of the SP500.

    Hoping to pull off a green day tomorrow. Worst case.....the week will be over and we can move forward.

    As I see it.....the market POSITIVES...greatly outweigh....the negatives. Especially over the next 6-12 months. BUT....the markets are in a very PISSY mood lately....short term.
     
  10. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    Wow... your hose story played out EXACTLY like ours.... our insurance company sent serv-pro immediately.... and they came over with the humidity readers and assessed that the ENTIRE BUILDING needed to be cut open, just like you said - the bottom 2’, dried out and replaced, just so mold wouldn’t grow there...
    Which is exactly what we did. We figured heck we’re screwed already so may as well get this thing done RIGHT. The whole thing cost over 100k but when it was done the building looked brand new!
    Yes, the very thing that is supposed to save us- the fire sprinklers- were the ones that created such carnage.
    Now we have heating coils over the main valve pipes - JUST IN CASE
     
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  11. Bigmalx

    Bigmalx Member

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    And I think that is what makes you a special kind of person Mr. WXYZ, Thank You.
     
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  12. roadtonowhere08

    roadtonowhere08 Well-Known Member

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    I know. I'm just having fun.
     
  13. Rustic1

    Rustic1 Well-Known Member

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    Looks like Texas is getting power restored. Showing approximately 212,000 still out with the majority being ONCOR with approximately 115,000.

    Markets seem to like the overnight news and we made it to Mars.
    Screenshot_20210219-040611_YouTube.jpg
     
    #3713 Rustic1, Feb 19, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 19, 2021
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  14. gtrudeau88

    gtrudeau88 Well-Known Member

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    I'm down about 0.75% for the week, not including dividend payments that came this week.

    Hoping for a rebound today
     
    #3714 gtrudeau88, Feb 19, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 19, 2021
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  15. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    And.......here is some happy talk to.....HELP OUT..... the markets today. I DO like the general premise of this little article.

    'Fasten your seatbelts' — The case for a roaring economic recovery: Morning Brief

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fast...economic-recovery-morning-brief-110049254.htm
    Friday, February 19, 2021

    A huge economic reversal from 2009
    "The U.S. economy is in a reasonably good place right now.

    Consumer spending is robust and activity in the service and manufacturing sectors is increasing at a faster rate. The labor market stabilized in January, though as Thursday's report on initial jobless claims showed there is still considerable pressure for workers.

    And with Congress having already passed a few trillion dollars worth of fiscal stimulus and up to $1.9 trillion in additional aid making its way into the economy over the months ahead, an improving trajectory seems sustainable for the U.S. economy. But the overall arc of this economic recovery is likely to look even better when compared to the sluggish decade of growth we saw after the financial crisis.

    "We think most forecasters are not looking at the whole story for the last recovery," Ethan Harris, global economist at Bank of America Global Research, said in a note published Thursday. "In a number of ways today looks entirely different from 2009."

    For Harris, this difference comes down to four core features:

    • The stimulus [in 2009] was late, small and faded too fast. Today's stimulus has been timely, huge and very persistent.
    • In a COVID-19 world, much of the stimulus effect is deferred until the economy reopens.
    • The COVID-19 crisis should leave much smaller economic scars than the biggest banking and real estate crisis in modern history.
    • Household balance sheets were deeply damaged in the last cycle; they are in great shape (in aggregate) today.
    In the years ahead, lots will be made of the output gap — that is, the difference between present GDP growth and pre-crisis trend growth — and the speed with which this does or does not close. But Harris looks a bit more closely at the labor market. And specifically how quickly the gap between peak crisis-era unemployment might close in the wake of the pandemic-related recession.

    And the short of it is that with additional stimulus, additional consumer spending power, and a corporate sector that isn't dealing with the kinds of aftershocks we saw in the beginning of the last decade, a pre-pandemic labor market could return within a year or two.

    "Putting it all together, we look for a much faster return to full employment," Harris writes. "According to CBO estimates the economy did not reach full employment in the last cycle until 2017, 31 quarters into the recovery. This time we expect full employment by 3Q 2022 or 9 quarters into the recovery. Fasten your seatbelts."

    [​IMG]
    Bank of America expects that unemployment could be back to pre-pandemic levels within two years, a stark contrast to the nearly 8 years it took for the labor market to recover after the financial crisis. (Source: Bank of America Global Research)
    By Myles Udland, a reporter and anchor for Yahoo Finance Live. Follow him at @MylesUdland

    What to know today
    Economy

    • 9:45 a.m. ET: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, February preliminary (58.7 expected, 59.2 in January)

    • 9:45 a.m. ET: Markit US Composite PMI, February preliminary (58.7 in January)

    • 9:45 a.m. ET: Markit U.S. Services PMI, February preliminary (58.0 expected, 58.3 in January)

    • 10:00 a.m. ET: Existing home sales, January (6.6 million expected, 6.76 million in December)
    Earnings

    • 6:45 a.m. ET: Deere (DE) is expected to report adjusted earnings of $2.15 per share on revenue of $7.11 billion"
    MY COMMENT

    YES.......the general economy IS on the way to recovery. BUT....in order to insure that recovery we need to get ALL the states open for business. EVERY....indicator is very positive at the moment....EXCEPT....for employment. That is where we are going to have trouble.....for the economy....NOT for stock investors. As the article mentions it took over......31 quarters....TILL 2017....for employment to recover from the 2008/2009 DERIVATIVE DISASTER......a government caused event. The article ALSO references the decade of SLUGGISH growth following the 2008/2009 near economic collapse......again in my opinion.....a direct result of incompetent government management and policies. ACTUALLY a result of governments....age old DELUSION.... that it can actually manage the economy.

    Personally......I do not see much good on the horizan for employment.......we are NOW back in an era of the SAME government policies that were responsible for the employment DRAG that followed the 2008/2009 event for 9 years.

    I am ALSO....concerned about the continued push for more and more STIMULUS. Fine....pass the current $1.9TRILLION plan. It is anticipated and will be a final kick off for the recovery that we are ALREADY EXPERIENCING. BUT....there is NO need for additional stimulus. It is time to let PRIVATE BUSINESS....especially small business.....carry the load of ramping back up the economy. Through most of the past 50 years....I can NOT remember a single time when GOVERNMENT stimulus did anything positive for the economy. That sort of money is.....always....focused on government and NOT the actual people and businesses that need the help. It is just DEAD UNPRODUCTIVE money........it is shovel ready jobs.....that NEVER happen. The money just gets sucked off into the most unproductive part of the economy........government programs.

    Political commentary? NO.....just REALITY.....regardless of party or who is in power. THE guts of the economy is ALWAYS.....private business. Government needs to STEP BACK and let the recovery happen.....driven by the private sector....WITHOUT help or interference by the government. BUT.....in my lifetime....it is very RARE for ANY politician of ANY party to actually do this. I have ONLY seen it happen twice.......once long ago in the 1980's and once more recently. BOTH times the result was a HISTORIC ECONOMIC BOOM.

    THE GOOD NEWS.....for investors.....the economy is NOT the stock markets......and employment is NOT going to mean anything to stocks. In fact......a poor employment market WILL PROBABLY be a positive for stock investors. SO.....as a "stock investor"....do I care about employment/unemployment......NO not in the least. ALL the indicators for stocks and funds are STRONGLY positive. ALL I care about......as a stock investor...... is how the actual private businesses that I invest in will do going forward. OTHERS can obscess over the "ECONOMY".....that is not my job and therefore NOT my concern....it is also IRRELEVANT to investing success. My ONLY concern is making money for the security and future of my own FAMILY.......and....it is LIKELY that the next 24 months are going to be EXTREMELY POSITIVE investors.
     
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  16. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    SO......LET THE GOOD TIMES ROLL. Today is the first day of the next year or two. We are starting the day positive for the general averages.....and....so far....today......we seem to have ESCAPED any media DOOM&GLOOM. From here it is......ONWARD AND UPWARD.

    I noticed that Bitcoin was up to.....well over....$53,000 at the moment. Now I dont care about Bitcoin itself......BUT.....I do find it interesting in terms of one of my holdings Tesla. They made their purchase in January of 2021. In the month of January, Bitcoin traded between $29,333 and $37,020. It is possible that Tesla is looking at a MAXIMUM profit on that trade of......81% to date. Just over $1.2BILLION......AMAZING. Looks like ELON.....just might be able to build a new........ "FREE" .......$1BILLION dollar plant.

    I saw one little article that calculated:

    "Given the years of net losses from its business, it’s possible Tesla made more in profit off of its single $1.5 billion Bitcoin purchase than it did off the profits from its cars in the last decade."
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-may-already-made-more-224537165.html

    I really have no point to this post.....but....I do find this topic FASCINATING.
     
    #3716 WXYZ, Feb 19, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 19, 2021
  17. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    NO.....I am NOT pushing buying Bitcoin in the above post. The current price is off the charts....and....if the past is a window on the future of bitcoin....it will plummet back down just as quickly as it skyrocketed up to the current levels. I will continue to make my little......and getting smaller in percentage terms....$100 monthly deposit into Bitcoin in my Coinbase account.....even though it drives me crazy at these levels. At this rate it will take my about 44 years to......actually....own ONE bitcoin. BUMMER....since that is well past my life expectancy.
     
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  18. andyvds

    andyvds Active Member

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    today I started with a small position (300 shares) in Infosys. Good company that I visited in 2012.
     
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  19. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I talk about real estate markets once in a while. My home is the 4th leg of my four legged stool that is my personal finances. The four legs being:

    * Real property (my home)
    * Stocks and funds
    * Cash and cash equivalent (income annuities)
    * Art, antiques and collectables that have an actual market and market value

    Those that currently own a home in one of the MANY areas of the country that is HOT for real estate at the moment are celebrating. Those trying to buy......caught up in a fast moving FRENZIED market.....are in a panic. Those that would like to buy but are finding it impossible in their area.....are in despair. The real estate markets are.....currently.....a very emotional place to be....positive and negative. I can NOT even imagine being a first time buyer out there right now.

    HERE is a little article that has some current data:

    US existing home sales unexpectedly rise in January
    Existing home sales increased 0.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.69 million units

    https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-existing-home-sales-unexpectedly-rise-in-january

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "U.S. home sales unexpectedly rose in January despite tight inventories boosting house prices.

    The National Association of Realtors said on Friday that existing home sales increased 0.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.69 million units last month. Sales have been increasing even as contracts have been declining.

    Economists polled by Reuters had forecast sales would fall 1.5% to a rate of 6.61 million units in January.

    Home resales, which account for the bulk of U.S. home sales, surged 23.7% on a year-on-year basis.

    The housing market, the economy’s star performer during the COVID-19 recession, is being supported by historically low mortgage rates and demand for spacious accommodations for home offices and schooling, mostly in the suburbs and other lower-density areas.

    But demand has far outstripped supply, driving up home prices. About 23.2% of the labor force is working from home.

    Last month, sales fell in the Northeast and West. They, however, rose in the South and the Midwest.

    There were a record-low 1.04 million previously owned homes on the market in January, down 25.7% from one year ago. The median existing house price shot up 14.1% from a year ago to $303,900 in January.

    The inventory crunch could ease as builders step up construction, though they are facing challenges from record lumber prices as well as shortages of land and labor.

    The government reported on Thursday that permits for future home building soared in January to their highest level since May 2006.

    At January’s sales pace, it would take 1.9 months to exhaust the current inventory, down from 3.1 months a year ago. A six-to-seven-month supply is viewed as a healthy balance between supply and demand.

    MY COMMENT

    The picture from the data above......a MASSIVE sellers market in many parts of the country.

    AND......the poor economists.....WRONG AGAIN. It just continues to defy ALL statistical chance that they can be...so wrong....so often. They are the GREATEST.....contrary indicator.....in financial history.

    I wish I had an answer for any that are in the STRUGGLE to find and buy their first home.....but I dont.......other than focus and perseverance. AND....I know saying that does not help in the slightest.
     
    #3719 WXYZ, Feb 19, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 19, 2021
  20. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    HERE...is the BIG danger for those that are SPECULATING in Reddit stocks and social media day trading. This is going to become the norm:

    U.S. securities regulator suspends trading in three more 'meme stocks'

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-securities-regulator-suspends-trading-155017582.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Friday suspended trading in more securities that have seen jumps in both prices and trading volumes since late January amid social media interest.

    The SEC temporarily suspended trading of Marathon Group Corp, Affinity Beverage Group Inc, and Sylios Corp beginning on Friday and ending on March 4, the SEC said in statements published on its website.

    The suspensions are the latest effort by the SEC to address soaring retail investor interest driven by conversation on social media platforms, most notably seen in a surge and subsequent plunge in share prices of GameStop Corp. Last week, the regulator suspended trading in a defunct stock.

    Volatile trading in so-called "meme stocks," assets which draw sudden interest from retail investors amid discussion on social media platforms, has left both hedge funds and retail investors nursing steep losses in recent weeks. The market tumult has drawn the scrutiny of federal and state regulators as well as U.S. lawmakers, who on Thursday grilled executives from online broker Robinhood, market maker Citadel Securities and hedge funds.

    In each of three separate statements detailing Friday's trading suspensions, the SEC said "certain social media accounts may be engaged in a coordinated attempt to artificially influence" share prices.

    The SEC has been looking at the actions of any and all participants involved in the recent trading. Potential misconduct the SEC is probing, according to its acting chair, includes: market manipulation; whether retail brokers breached fair access rules by restricting buying; the role of hedge funds with short positions in the companies, including whether there was enough data and transparency around their bets; and whether the companies took advantage of the rally to raise funds.

    All three securities suspended on Friday saw sudden increases in their share prices and volumes in the absence of any publicly available news, the regulator said. The SEC further cautioned brokers and other dealers to make sure they have complied with investor protection rules when trading resumes."

    MY COMMENT

    BE CAREFUL out there guys. You could easily end up owning shares and options that can NOT be traded and are therefore NOT LIQUID....for some length of time. This is a MESSAGE that the SEC is NOT going to tolerate....some....of the social media driven trading....they ARE going to step in.

    In addition......trading options or stocks based on social media.....can expose you and your money to ......the potential for.......RAMPANT fraud and manipulation.
     
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