I started as a business owner in 1977........with partners. I opened my own business with no partners in 1983. IMAGINE.....becoming a busines owner in 1977 with those interest rates and Stagflation. Imagine opening a new business with no partners.....all your personal financial assets on the line....in 1983....still the era of Stagflation (the start of the end). I look back on it and am amazed that I had the GUTS to do it. BUT..I was confident in what I could do......the confidence of the YOUNG. I remember talking with my wife about our KEOGH retirement plan and the money that those treasuries would give us when we bought them. Using the rule of 72's.....and....our age......34-37..... and a GUARANTEED return of 11-13%....we KNEW that our retirement was set. In business........and everything else........I ALWAYS projected out.....worst case scenario and best case scenario....and....the probabilities from ALL known and projected information. It gave us a lot of comfort and the ability to be confident in business....to know that NO MATTER WHAT....our retirement was taken care of. We figured.....worst case....we could both go and work at McDonalds and STILL know that our retirement....was set. MOST people back in that time.....the 1970's and early 1980's were STILL under a pension plan with a guaranteed pension. As a small business owner with.....NO PENSION....other than my self funded KEOGH....that was really important to us.
and then , you can do all the research on a company , look at the balance sheets , past performance, industry they are in , everything looks like the stock / company is ready to go up , you finally pull the trigger , and BAM . then as you watch it slowly tumble down , you say what happened ??? Last year I bot DLR , back in July , they are in the ownership of cloud buildings , a REIT . But since July they have just gone down , could not figure it out , then I saw an article that they had "lost favor in the Hedge Fund groups" no reason why , but it's down 14% since I bot it .
YEAH....oldmanram.....I can now look back and see at least 3-5.....BIG...... turning points.....and many little ones..... where life could have gone various ways and......... just happened to turn out well. Like you....if my MSFT investment had tanked. If My business move had not gone well. If I had not gotten those treasuries when I did and sold them the way I did. AND a few other key points in life. AND.....no matter how prepared you are.....OR....HOW RIGHT....in your thinking.....there is an element of LUCK and RANDOMNESS. In a lot of ways.....I AM GLAD....that I am not young and trying to start out now. Of course....it was probably worse when I was starting out in the 1970's and early 1980's with Stagflation, the oil crises, etc, etc,.......but being YOUNG most of us just did not know how bad things really were.
BACK to investing......I have NO illusions that I am going to be in the green today at the close. I did turn green just a while ago. BUT....this is a crazy day. THANK YOU.....to the program traders, the AI programs, the HFT programs......I BELIEVE...they kicked in and are the cause of the SUDDEN market turn that we saw earlier today.
OK.....way more then enough OLD GUY war stories......for me at least....I LIKE to read OTHER people's war stories. Back to investing and current times. I like this little article and find it interesting with all the recent focus on rates. Treasury Makes History With First Two-Year Note Auction Premium https://finance.yahoo.com/news/treasury-set-history-first-two-161828282.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Long-term U.S. Treasury yields may be surging lately, but investors were served a reminder Tuesday of just how incredibly low short-end rates still are. The department’s $60 billion sale of two-year notes on Tuesday broke one of the few remaining records of the low interest-rate era when it drew a yield of 0.119%. Because Treasury notes and bonds by regulation have a minimum coupon rate of 0.125%, the yield below that level means the notes were sold at a premium above 100 cents on the dollar -- 100.011965, to be precise -- something that’s never happened before. A new-issue premium has few if any practical implications. However, it highlights what’s happening in U.S. short-term interest rates, where yields on Treasury bills have flirted with zero this month as the government removes supply even as a wall of cash looks for a home. That phenomenon, and the Federal Reserve’s pledge to keep policy ultra-loose for the foreseeable future, is widening the gulf with long-term rates. Yields on those maturities have risen to the highest in about a year on the prospect of economic recovery and faster inflation. “When the Fed’s committed to keeping rates at or near zero, twos are probably cheap at 10 basis points,” said Glen Capelo, managing director at Mischler Financial, who began trading Treasuries in 1986. “It’s a little crazy that you have to buy them at that yield, but that’s your choice.” Treasury notes and bonds are assigned coupons based on their auction yield. The convention is to affix the highest possible coupon that doesn’t result in a premium price. A two-year note drawing 0.125% to 0.249% at auction would be issued with a 0.125% coupon at a price of 100 or lower. One drawing a yield below 0.125% would be issued with a 0.125% coupon at a price above 100. Treasury note and bond auctions that previously have resulted in premium prices have included reopenings and TIPS auctions. In a reopening, more of an existing security is sold, and if the auction yield is lower than the coupon, the price will be a premium. Several TIPS new issues also have sold at premiums because they’ve drawn yields below 0.125%. For today’s traders, the highest-ever coupon rate for a Treasury security must be hard to imagine: 16.25% for the two-year sold in August 1981, according to Bloomberg data." MY COMMENT WOW........imagine a 2 year Treasury paying.......16.25%. YES....current rates are INCREDIBLY LOW.
NICELY...in the green today....unexpected. Got beat by the SP500 by 0.60%. A GOOD DAY......considering the open. A really strong RALLY from late in the morning on. We needed this one to change the markets attitude a little bit and get us out of the RUT we have been in lately. CONGRATULATIONS to the DOW.....a new all time high. I just LOVE these EXPLOSIVE days that always seem to come out of nowhere.
HERE is a good one. Perhaps a DRIVER of the markets tomorrow with a little follow through from today. Nvidia beats as revenue grows 61% from a year ag https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/24/nvidia-nvda-earnings-q4-2021.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points Nvidia will beat elevated analyst expectations for both earnings and revenue for the fourth quarter of its fiscal year, which ended in December. Sales were up 61% year-over-year. Analysts had been expecting revenue growth over 55% from last year and Nvidia beat those expectations, even Nvidia beat elevated analyst expectations for both earnings and revenue for the fourth quarter of its fiscal year, which ended in December. Nvidia stock rose under 2% in extended trading. Here’s how Nvidia did: Earnings: $3.10 per share, adjusted, vs. $2.81 per share as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv. Revenue: $5.00 billion, versus $4.82 billion as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv. Sales were up 61% year-over-year. Investors had been expecting revenue growth over 55% from last year and Nvidia beat those expectations, even during a worldwide semiconductor shortage. Nvidia also suggested that its hot streak would continue by forecasting $5.3 billion in revenue for the current quarter, ahead of investor expectations of $4.51 billion. Nvidia stock has had a lot of momentum in recent months, with the stock rising over 106% in the past year. Investors see the Santa Clara, California chipmaker as a key supplier to several new technology trends. It sells semiconductor components for gaming, artificial intelligence, data centers, and automobiles. Nvidia has two primary segments: Graphics, which is primarily its graphics cards for consumers and professionals, and Compute and Networking, which includes chips for data centers, automobiles, and robots. Both had impressive quarters, which the company attributed in part to impact from the Covid-19 pandemic. Graphics reported $3.06 billion in revenue, which was up 47% from the same period last year. Compute and networking, the data center division, was up 91% year-over-year to $1.95 billion. PC gaming has been a hot market during the pandemic, and Nvidia is perhaps best known for its graphics cards that enable high-performance gaming. It has had issues keeping its newest graphics cards in stock. Nvidia said that its gaming performance was driven by sales of its newest graphics cards. Nvidia’s automotive business did not perform well during this quarter. It was down 11% to $145 million, Nvidia said, and it ended up down 23% for the entire year. Last September, Nvidia said it planned to buy ARM from Softbank for $40 billion in a transaction with deep implications for the semiconductor industry. ARM develops low-level technology widely used across the industry to develop low-power chips for mobile devices — and it supplies technology to most of Nvidia’s competitors. Companies are already lining up to object to the deal through regulatory channels. “We are making good progress toward acquiring Arm, which will create enormous new opportunities for the entire ecosystem,” Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said in a statement." MY COMMENT The last first.....ARM....I believe that acquisition is very tentative......at best 50/50 whether it will be allowed. I hope so as a shareholder. The rest of the earnings.....spectacular. Keep up the good work.....NVIDIA. If we are LUCKY they will BEAT the earnings jinx and actually be positive tomorrow.
Great day indeed. Both accounts solidly green 1.65/0.83. And we live through another episode once again... going to be a fun year for sure
So here is a perfect example of the psychology on wall street , HOME DEPOT Glowing report yesterday (thank you WXYZ), all numbers up up up stock price down , today down , NVIDIA about the same type of glowing report(thank you WXYZ) , stock price UP UP UP , after hours UP UP UP whats the difference ? wall street thinks HD numbers are unsustainable , they THINK there is no way HD can keep up this trend , I tend to agree with them ,a little, but think about the thousands of millennial's that just learned , "Hey maybe I can change a light bulb by myself" Home Depot HAS picked up some long term customers that would have never come in the doors before , and probably will again. That and as W says it is well run company , And personally, being in Property Management , I'm in there at least once a week, sometimes 5 times a week. To the Millennial's : Sorry for the bad rap , and sarcasm
Guess again... Nvdia took a u turn and are now red in the after market.... all bcs they don’t plan on going all in on cryptocurrency. Is crypto now the new flash card?
WXYZ , Have an investment question for you , I have some 529 plans for my daughters , the investment broker they are with allows you to pick from certain funds , from conservative Tbill funds to , well I haven't researched just how speculative I can go , what they carry, that is. Let's just say that it's going to be your kids money down the line , how speculative would you go with THEIR future funds ? They are 22 20 & 17
WELL.....a couple of quick comments: As to Home Depot......I believe they have a good portion of the homeowner and amateur market locked up. What I REALLY like is the fact that they have 40-50% of the contractor/professional market now. that is a real big change. I remember years back all the contractors went to lumber yards and other suppliers. NOW home Depot is capturing that business.......to the extent of 40-50% already. I dont see that business going to Lowes. As to Bitcoin.....I was thinking earlier that ALL the various tech and other companies piling into bitcoin over the past few months and especially the past week or two is either....a big coincidence or some sort of BIG MONEY herd behavior......or it is.......intentionally being done in coordination. I actually....do not like it.....gambling with HUGE amounts of corporate money. My conspiracy theory....it is a......loosely...... coordinated move to drive up the price of Bitcoin on the part of a good number of big tech and other companies. Is it some form of pump and dump? Or what? I dont know...but it just seems odd to me that suddenly all these big companies....especially tech...are jumping into bitcoin......with HUGE amounts of shareholder/corporate money. Perhaps it is just because....it is now.....acceptable.....since a few did it and cleared the way for the rest. I dont know. As to 529 money for kids.....all I can say is what I have done: I have advised my grown kids to simply invest in the SP500 for life.....same plan as Warren Buffett for his heirs. I have a little grandchild that I will be starting a trust for when she gets to be 10 with the initial amount of $200,000.....it is not for education. The first pay out will happen when she is 35 and every 10 years after till age 75......each payout will be one third, 1/3, of the entire corpus of the trust at the 10 year milestone. This is her back up money. I expect her parents (and if we are alive the rest of us) to help pay for her education and help with a house, etc, etc, outside of this money. It is to give her a SIGNIFICANT lifetime chunk of money every ten years. It will start at age 35 because I want her to NOT depend or count on it when she is younger and hopefully she will make something of herself regardless of this money. MY plan is that the trust document WILL designate that any and all money in the trust is to be TOTALLY invested at all times in the SP500 Index......till the final payment. My advice to every family member that I handle their account is....if something happens to me....put it all in the SP500 Index......IGNORE ALL other advice.....and just let it ride.
Marion passed away in February 2020, leaving behind a formidable cache of mostly post-war American art including Clyfford Still’s PH-125 (1948, est. $25m-$35m) ---- here is the still's piece. gimme a freakin break. i took art in college and did a piece at least this good. i don't get it.
Today I managed to get a contract that left me with a 4K profit... do you guys suggest investing all that money in NASDAQ100/SP500 or buying individual stocks in the companies I love?
(WXTZ quote ) As to 529 money for kids.....all I can say is what I have done: I have advised my grown kids to simply invest in the SP500 for life.....same plan as Warren Buffett for his heirs. I have a little grandchild that I will be starting a trust for when she gets to be 10 with the initial amount of $200,000.....it is not for education. The first pay out will happen when she is 35 and every 10 years after till age 75......each payout will be one third, 1/3, of the entire corpus of the trust at the 10 year milestone. This is her back up money. I expect her parents (and if we are alive the rest of us) to help pay for her education and help with a house, etc, etc, outside of this money. It is to give her a SIGNIFICANT lifetime chunk of money every ten years. It will start at age 35 because I want her to NOT depend or count on it when she is younger and hopefully she will make something of herself regardless of this money. MY plan is that the trust document WILL designate that any and all money in the trust is to be TOTALLY invested at all times in the SP500 Index......till the final payment. My advice to every family member that I handle their account is....if something happens to me....put it all in the SP500 Index......IGNORE ALL other advice.....and just let it ride. (ME) (I'm still trying to get the quote function to work) As I was walking back to my computer to look for a response ,and I thought , I bet he says S&P500 , That's what I was thinking as well , The payouts on the trusts start earlier , age 25. I was overruled by my brother, and didn't want to fight about it . My feeling is like yours let them make it on there own first , learn about life, and money on your own first, make mistakes with small amounts of money, then when you are more mature, starting at age 35, you get the bonuses. Hopefully they have learned to handle money and life and make the most of it. His argument was that they will be in a lower tax bracket at those ages, so I relented, pick your battles I say. The trusts payout 10% every 5 years , One point I made and would not bargain on was a 20% reserve be taken off the top that is suppose to go to the education of their children. Have a good night all Come on NVIDIA , guide the market
LOL...you already know me and the SP500....oldmanram. I did not want this trust to pay earlier......so her parents would not get out of their family obligation to pay for college and help her get started as needed. I also wanted to have 25 years to compound between age 10 and the first payout at age 35. PLUS....as I said I did not want some big chunk of money handed to her at too young an age.....I figure by age 35 most people have things pretty well figured out. I figure there is a pretty good chance that initial $200,000 will grow to about $2,000,000 over 25 years. (10-11% historical gain......rule of 72's....gives me about 3.4 times that initial money will double) So if at age 35 the trust has $2,000,000 in it she wold take out about $666,000 and the remaining $1,334,000 would compound for the next ten years and grow to about $3,000,000 and she would take out $1,000,000 at age 45 and so on and so on.......IN THEORY........that is the....BIG BUT......IN THEORY.
Yeah Emmett. I am sure that auction will be in New York......lots of very BIG TIME contemporary art.....most of it is not my cup of tea........trophy art for Billionaires. As you know the collection is being estimated at $150MILLION and I would imagine will probably blow past that number. I cant believe the Andy Warhol prices.......lets see, I will take a photo of Marilyn......blow it up.....transfer it onto silk and squeeze some paint across it......and.....WHAM-O......a $15MILLION Warhol original. YOU...along with every other college art student probably did work just as good as half her collection....I dont see it....but who am I?
