The Long Term Investor

YES......especially the......."PIZZA Size And Value Comparison Calculator".

 

That is probably a very good idea DAX. Mortgage rates as you know are at historic lows.

If it was me.......and I am probably different than many on this issue......I would buy as much house as I could afford and would finance as much as possible for 30 years. I would put as little down as I could get away with. BUT....we always have STRETCHED with buying houses in our lives.

I would want to lock in these very low rates......and....by buying as much house as possible hope to be in a house that I could live in for a long time. My ONLY consideration would be....to ABSOLUTELY make sure.....that I could afford the payment under ANY circumstances.

You are a pretty savvy guy....so regarding how much you could afford to pay......take into account your income now and anticipated future income growth......and be BRUTALLY REALISTIC about what you can afford. Keep in mind that you are going to have extra expenses for Homeowners Insurance, and various repairs and upkeep over the year. Your house payment will also include property taxes in addition to principle and interest.

Many states have first time homeowner programs of various types......check out if your state has any programs for first time buyers.

What are you seeing with home prices and the housing market in your area? Where I am it is CRAZY.....house prices are skyrocketing. Many younger buyers have been priced out of the market.

 

Seems like a little day with no real energy today.....so far. The markets are taking a day off from the FRANTIC drama and action......up and down....of the past 3-4 weeks. I dont see much in the articles I am seeing today......they are just as BLAH as the markets. Probably a good thing.....in a normal market there will be many days that things just sort of linger and back-fill. I see this little article as relevant to the day today.

S&P 500 subdued as focus turns to Fed

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/futures-buoyed-optimism-over-u-113306278.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"(Reuters) - The S&P 500 paused on Monday below an all-time high as investors awaited cues from the Federal Reserve's meeting this week amid caution over rising borrowing costs spurred by massive fiscal stimulus.

Delta Air Lines, Southwest Airlines and JetBlue Airways said leisure bookings are rising and offered some of the first concrete signs that the worst may be over for the airline industry.

The S&P 1500 airlines index jumped about 3.8% to a one-year high, while planemaker Boeing Co added about 2%.

Other travel-related stocks including Carnival Corp, Wynn Resorts and MGM Resorts gained between 3% and 5%.

Wall Street's main indexes on Friday logged their best week in six as approval of a $1.9 trillion relief package and mass vaccinations fueled demand for economy-linked stocks such as banks, energy, materials at the cost of high-growth tech names.

The major U.S. stock indexes were roiled in recent weeks as a spike in longer-dated U.S. bond yields due to fears of an increase in inflation and, in response, a tapering of the Fed's easy monetary policy worried investors.

"The U.S. economy looks in a better shape than most other developed economies," said Hussein Sayed, chief market strategist at FXTM.

"Despite the rosier economic outlook, this week's Fed meeting is expected to be absent of major policy changes."

At the end of Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, policymakers are expected to forecast that the U.S. economy will grow in 2021 at the fastest rate in decades while reiterating their dovish stance for the foreseeable future.

The yields on benchmark 10-year Treasuries hovered near their 13-month high at 1.61%, slightly lower than its peak of 1.64% hit on Friday.

At 9:47 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 87.51 points, or 0.27%, to 32,866.15, the S&P 500 gained 0.29 points, or 0.01%, to 3,943.63 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 6.81 points, or 0.05%, to 13,313.11.

Five of the major S&P sectors were lower, with financials and energy leading losses.

Tesla Inc added "Technoking of Tesla" to billionaire Chief Executive Elon Musk's list of official titles in a formal regulatory filing that also named finance chief Zachary Kirkhorn "Master of Coin". Tesla's shares were nearly flat.

Eli Lilly and Co shares slumped about 8.5% after "mixed" results from the drugmaker's mid-stage trial testing its experimental drug to treat Alzheimer's cast a doubt on the chances for the drug's accelerated approval, according to analysts.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.2-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and a 1-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq.

The S&P 500 posted 59 new 52-week highs and no new low, while the Nasdaq recorded 239 new highs and six new lows."

MY COMMENT

DULL market continues at this moment. Just no real direction apparent today....yet.

 

HERE is the good news. Although......it is coming from YELLEN. Not exactly the most DYNAMIC and sucessful FED chair when she was in charge. BUT......still some indication of the thinking of the current government.....assuming.....she is actually in the loop.

Yellen projects full employment in 2022, interest rates to remain low
Yellen believes the Fed has learned lessons from high inflation during the 1970s

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/yellen-full-employment-2022-interest-rates-to-remain-low

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen believes that 2022 will see a return to full employment, crediting the recently passed COVID-19 relief bill as a major step down the path toward recovery.

President Biden signed the $1.9 trillion bill last week, putting into motion a number of extensions to existing programs as well as a fresh round of stimulus checks.

Despite concerns about the ballooning $28 trillion national debt, Yellen praised the massive bill, saying it will provide relief to people who need it, particularly the unemployed. The national unemployment rate hit 6.2%, or roughly 10 million unemployed Americans, but Yellen believes the bill will help return the rate to pre-pandemic levels.

“I’m hopeful that if we beat the pandemic, we can have the economy back near full employment next year, and I think this is the package we need to do that,” Yellen told “This Week” host George Stephanopoulos.

“The most significant risk we face is a work force that’s scarred by a long period of unemployment,” Yellen added.

A rapid rise in employment may have a knock-on effect of creating rampant inflation. Yellen downplayed those concerns, though, calling it a “small risk” that is manageable.

"Prices fell a lot last spring when the pandemic surged. I expect some of those prices to move up again as the economy recovers in spring and summer," Yellen explained. "That's a temporary movement in prices."

Yellen cited the 1970s as an important lesson, when interest rates hit nearly 20% due to government policies. The Federal Reserve has “learned” to manage expectations, and Yellen believes that the government has the tools to handle rising inflation – should it occur.

Further, the world’s trends appear to be in support of low interest rates: Yellen pointed to lower interest rates in years prior to the pandemic – trends she believes will continue even after the country recovers.

“It reflects structural trends that are not going to disappear soon,” Yellen added. “When I think about debt, I think about it mainly in terms of interest payments that the government needs to make on that debt.”

The size of interest payments, relative to the economy, have remained small. The process will be a long one, though, and Yellen urged patience as the economy starts to heal over the next few years."

MY COMMENT

Sounds good to me. Although.....Yellen did not seem to be able to do anything AT ALL about the stagnant employment during her first two years as FED chair. I ALSO....have doubts that she is really in the loop in the current government. I see her as sort of a celebrity name that will simply be a place holder as Treasury Secretary....no real power or influence.....just another tired....old....Washington insider with no real record of any particular success.

What will really count going forward....ESPECIALLY...in 2022 will be the SURE TAX INCREASES that are coming. They will be passed as part of a MASSIVE reconciliation bill. Obviously the corporate income tax is going up to somewhere between 28% and 32%.......and....personal rates WILL also rise. There will ALSO be many more types of tax increases in the COMING TAX BILL....to fund the green new deal, infrastructure, etc, etc. This tax policy will HIT just as the economy is heading to full recovery from the pandemic. It will actually help.......by being a DRAG on business and the economy. So I dont see any out of control economy. It will NOT help with the employment situation. We WILL see more on the COMING tax increases over the next 2-8 months. The impact on BUSINESS and INVESTORS will be become clear as time goes by.

 

STILL....a DULL BORING market so far today. Probably a deserved pause for investors. LONG TERM.....just another single day that will have no particular relevance.

 

I have NO COMMENT on the politics of the article below.......for or against. BUT this is a relevant topic for investors in AMERICAN BUSINESS.....stock investors.

Biden Eyes First Major Tax Hike Since 1993 in Next Economic Plan

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...jor-tax-hike-since-1993-in-next-economic-plan

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"President Joe Biden is planning the first major federal tax hike since 1993 to help pay for the long-term economic program designed as a follow-up to his pandemic-relief bill, according to people familiar with the matter.

Unlike the $1.9 trillion Covid-19 stimulus act, the next initiative, which is expected to be even bigger, won’t rely just on government debt as a funding source. While it’s been increasingly clear that tax hikes will be a component -- Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has said at least part of the next bill will have to be paid for, and pointed to higher rates -- key advisers are now making preparations for a package of measures that could include an increase in both the corporate tax rate and the individual rate for high earners.

With each tax break and credit having its own lobbying constituency to back it, tinkering with rates is fraught with political risk. That helps explain why the tax hikes in Bill Clinton’s signature 1993 overhaul stand out from the modest modifications done since.

For the Biden administration, the planned changes are an opportunity not just to fund key initiatives like infrastructure, climate and expanded help for poorer Americans, but also to address what Democrats argue are inequities in the tax system itself. The plan will test both Biden’s capacity to woo Republicans and Democrats’ ability to remain unified.


“His whole outlook has always been that Americans believe tax policy needs to be fair, and he has viewed all of his policy options through that lens,” said Sarah Bianchi, head of U.S. public policy at Evercore ISI and a former economic aide to Biden. “That is why the focus is on addressing the unequal treatment between work and wealth.”

While the White House has rejected an outright wealth tax, as proposed by progressive Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren, the administration’s current thinking does target the wealthy.

The White House is expected to propose a suite of tax increases, mostly mirroring Biden’s 2020 campaign proposals, according to four people familiar with the discussions.

The tax hikes included in any broader infrastructure and jobs package are likely to include repealing portions of President Donald Trump’s 2017 tax law that benefit corporations and wealthy individuals, as well as making other changes to make the tax code more progressive, said the people familiar with the plan.

The following are among proposals currently planned or under consideration, according to the people, who asked not to be named as the discussions are private:

• Raising the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21%
• Paring back tax preferences for so-called pass-through businesses, such as limited-liability companies or partnerships
• Raising the income tax rate on individuals earning more than $400,000
• Expanding the estate tax’s reach
• A higher capital-gains tax rate for individuals earning at least $1 million annually. (Biden on the campaign trail proposed applying income-tax rates, which would be higher)

An independent analysis of the Biden campaign tax plan done by the Tax Policy Center estimated it would raise $2.1 trillion over a decade, though the administration’s plan is likely to be smaller. Bianchi earlier this month wrote that congressional Democrats might agree to $500 billion.

The overall program has yet to be unveiled, with analysts penciling in $2 trillion to $4 trillion. No date has yet been set for an announcement, though the White House said the plan would follow the signing of the Covid-19 relief bill.

An outstanding question for Democrats is which parts of the package need to be funded, amid debate over whether infrastructure ultimately pays for itself -- especially given current borrowing costs, which remain historically low. Efforts to make the expanded child tax credit in the pandemic-aid bill permanent -- something with a price tag estimated at more than $1 trillion over a decade -- could be harder to sell if pitched as entirely debt-financed.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say...

“The next major legislative initiative, infrastructure investment, could provide the sort of durable economic gains that not only support higher pay, but promote diffusion of those gains across demographic lines and political persuasions.”

--Andrew Husby and Eliza Winger, U.S. economists

Democrats would need at least 10 Republicans to back the bill to move it under regular Senate rules. But GOP members are signaling they are prepared to fight.

“We’ll have a big robust discussion about the appropriateness of a big tax increase,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said last month, predicting Democrats would pursue a reconciliation bill that forgoes the GOP and would aim for a corporate tax even higher than 28%.

Kevin Brady, the top Republican on the House Ways & Means Committee, said, “There seems to a be a real drive to tax investment of capital gains at marginal income rates,” and called that a “terrible economic mistake.”

While about 18% of the George W. Bush administration’s tax cuts were allowed to expire in a 2013 deal, and other legislation has seen some increases in levies, 1993 marks the last comprehensive set of increases, experts say. That bill passed on a two-vote margin in the House and required the vice president to break a tie in the Senate.

“I don’t think it is an understatement to say the current partisan environment is more severe than 1993” said Ken Kies, managing director of the Federal Policy Group, a former chief of staff of the congressional Joint Committee on Taxation. “So you can draw your own conclusions” about prospects for a deal this year, he said.

Still, there could be some tax initiatives Republicans could get behind. One is a shift from a gasoline tax to a vehicle-miles-traveled fee to help fund highway projects.

Another is more money for Internal Revenue Service enforcement -- a way to boost revenue without raising rates. Estimates have found that for every additional $1 spent on IRS audits, the agency brings in an additional $3 to $5.

Democrats are also looking to revise tax laws that they say don’t do enough to stop U.S. companies from shifting jobs and profits offshore as another way to raise revenue, one aide said. Republicans could potentially support incentives, though it’s unclear whether they’d back penalties.

White House officials including deputy director of the National Economic Council, David Kamin -- who wrote a 2019 paper on “Taxing the Rich” -- are in the process of fleshing out the Biden tax plans."

MY COMMENT

SIMPLY....the rise in corporate income rates with hurt ALL business especially smaller business. This change if it happens will HURT employment.....but....it will help to SQUASH any overheating of the economy.

The greatest jobs killer and impact on investors and business will be any change in the Capital Gains tax rates. Raising the capital gains tax will DECREASE the willingness of investors.....especially the high end investors.....to put money at risk.

Of course......as usual....the increases WILL be passed on to consumers and everyone in the economy in the form of higher prices. It will be "interesting" to see the actual bill take shape.

 

The DOW is NOW trying to establish some market direction......DOWN. LOL.

I just looked at my account today. Seven holdings UP at the moment........and....green so far. A nice mix of Up stocks that represent the tech side of the market and the non-tech side of the market. HD, NKE, PG, AAPL, NVDA, SNOW and TSLA are ALL green........at the moment.