The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    As a NIKE shareholder.....this is an interesting little article on the new marketing and retail plan the company is now using.

    Nikes are getting harder to find at stores. Here's why

    https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/22/business/nike-independent-shoe-stores/index.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Struggling to find Nike sneakers at your neighborhood shoe store? That's by design.

    Nike wants customers to buy more of its shoes, clothing and gear at Nike stores and on Nike.com and its apps, as well as at a more limited group of retailers like Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) and Foot Locker (FL). So the company in recent years has slashed the number of traditional retailers it sells its goods to while shifting to grow directly through its own channels, especially online. That has affected big and small retailers. In addition to pulling out of some independently owned stores, Nike (NKE) also ended a partnership selling on Amazon (AMZN) in 2019. Nike has not disclosed which retailers specifically it has cut ties with.

    The company's move away from a primarily wholesale distribution model is a departure from the early decades of Nike. Small, independent sneaker retailers were key to growing Nike's popularity in the company's early days, when people found out about upcoming shoe releases from visiting the local shop.But Nike has said it can make more than double the profit selling goods through its own website and physical stores than it can through wholesale partners.

    Nike gets to control the shopper experience more tightly and the prices at which products are sold when it goes directly to consumers. That's a big deal for Nike, a premium brand that wants to ensure merchandise is showcased to customers in enticing ways and prevent products from being discounted too heavily.

    Nike is eliminating what it calls "undifferentiated" retail partners — stores that are "plopping Nike stuff on their shelf or website and hoping somebody finds it," said Sam Poser, an analyst at Williams Trading who covers the company. Nike is "saying to the retailers that unless you do things that enhance the brand, we're not going to sell to you."

    In September, Ed Shaen, the owner of Sneakin' In, an athletic shoe store in Bellmawr, New Jersey, got a letter in the mail from Nike saying that his account would be closed after 37 years.

    "I have the letter hanging on the wall. Right next to the trophy [Nike] gave me for being a great dealer" in 1992, he said.
    Shaen said Nike makes up more than half of his sales. The end of the Nike partnership, coupled with the crippling impact of the pandemic, will likely lead him to close the store by the end of the year, he said.

    "My loyalty to Nike didn't mean anything," Shaen said. "It's all about direct-to-consumer now."

    Sandra Carreon-John, a spokesperson for Nike, did not comment directly on Shaen's account, but said in an email that the company "continually evaluates the marketplace to understand how we best serve consumers, making adjustments to our sales channels as needed to create a consistent, connected and modern shopping experience."

    'We took a chance on them'

    Nike CFO Matthew Friend said in December that Nike has "reduced the number of undifferentiated accounts in North America by roughly 30%" since it first announced the strategy in 2017, when Nike said it would focus its resources, marketing and top products on just 40 select retail partners.

    "You'll see even more movement from undifferentiated retail into a smaller number of partners and our own stores" that offer customers a "premium experience," CEO John Donahue told analysts Thursday. Such experiences include building out a specific Nike-branded section of a store, or having Nike-dedicated employees specially trained to help consumers understand the benefits of a running shoe, for example — efforts that improve the customer experience but are often cost prohibitive for small, independent sneaker stores.

    Rivals Under Armour and Adidas are following Nike's lead and also pulling back on the number of retail partners they rely on as they build up direct-to-consumer sales.

    "We're exiting thousands of non-strategic wholesale accounts, particularly in the US, to win with the winners," Adidas (ADDDF) CEO Kasper Rorsted said in November.

    Under Armour (UA)CFO David Bergman said last month that the company "will begin to exit certain undifferentiated wholesale distribution, primarily in North America, starting in the back half of 2021." The plan calls for Under Armour to pull out of 2,000 to 3,000 outside retailers' stores.

    Losing Nike or other popular athletic brands can bea blow to shoe stores and clothing retailers. Nike is a top draw for customers and, without the brand, stores can struggle to compete. Nike also owns the Jordan brand and Converse.

    L&L Shoes in Palestine, Texas, sold Nike for decades and the brand made up around 70% of the store's sport shoe sales.
    But in 2019, Nike "sent us a letter in the mail that we no longer fit their distribution goals," said owner Marty Nash. "We haven't been able to get Nikes ever since."

    "It hurt some cause there are a lot of people who are dedicated to that brand," he said. "I thought it was pretty dirty because we were buying them out of the back of a car" in the 1970s from Nike salesmen trying to get independent stores to buy sneakers.
    Carreon-John, the Nike spokesperson, did not comment directly on Nash's account.

    Nash feels that he helped Nike reach consumers when it was still an emerging brand and the company has given up on small stores like his.

    "We took a chance on them.""

    MY COMMENT

    YES....it is ALL about the bottom line, productivity and profits. Loyalty does NOT count for anything in the modern corporate business. So be it......great for the shareholders.

    WATCH OUT......employees.....if a company is treating long time retailers like this you can bet that there is ABSOLUTELY NO corporate loyalty to ANY employee. YOU are a commodity. BUT....again......great for shareholders. Welcome to the begining of the future.

    This stuff is why there is and.....will be.........NO loyalty to any employer by a worker. We are already WELL down this road. It will ALL be.......what can you do for me. It works both ways. A battle that the employees are SURE to lose long term.

    EVERY investor, every employee, every person....should be driven by the need to protect and provide for their OWN FAMILY. That is MANDATORY going forward. You.....MUST......invest and have total focus on your own future.........no one else....government, the company you work for, the system,.........cares in the slightest to protect or watch out for you.

    Negativity.....no.....just reality. It is the era for EVERYONE to watch out for themselves.
     
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  2. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    A very nice start to the week. I guess Spring is really here. A SOLIDLY GREEN day for me. AND....a nice beat of the SP500 by .70%.

    A GREAT start to the new week. I dont know why.....but my FEEL for the markets is telling me that this week.....at least today.....feels a little different than the past 3-4 weeks. The media is not as negative and there is not near as much coverage of rates and inflation. A little bit more of a positive attitude. I guess it is the beginning of Spring....which started over the past weekend. I noticed that restaurants on Sunday here in my area.....were PACKED. We went to three different places before we found one with a wait less than an hour Sunday afternoon.

    EVEN the DOW managed to close nicely positive for the day.
     
  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    YES.....investors.....RELAX. It is all good.....especially if you are long term.......what else is new?

    Investors are getting worried about a stock market bubble, but Goldman says relax

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inve...-bubble-but-goldman-says-relax-171121191.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)
    Investors may be growing anxious about the stock market potentially being in a bubble as its climb to new heights continues relatively unabated. But Goldman Sachs offered up a comforting take to these worrywarts on Monday.

    "While there are pockets of excessive valuations in equities, and parts of the market are justifiably de-rating as interest rates adjust, in our assessment only a few of these common characteristics are currently present or being partially met," opines Goldman's chief global equity strategist. And head of macro research in Europe Peter Oppenheimer wrote in a research note, "Importantly, the absence of significant leverage (outside of the government sector) and the early stage of the cycle suggest that the risks of an imminent bubble with systemic risks to the financial system and economies is relatively low."

    Oppenheimer's conclusion reflects several factors.

    [​IMG]
    Investor go bubble hunting.
    First, historically low interest rates have made stocks more attractive relative to other points in the past. Second, the biggest companies in the market (see FAANG stocks, aka Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google) deserve their valuations as they produce strong cash flows due to dominate market positions. Then, Oppenheimer's research finds there isn't widespread excess ownership of risk assets and equities despite the run-up in markets off the 2020 COVID-19 lows.

    And last but not least, the country's largest banks generally have pristine balance sheets absent the excessive risks taken in prior bubble periods (see 2008 pre-Great Recession and late 1990s pre-internet bubble).

    "There are certainly many companies that have seen very rapid price increases in the recent past but these are generally small companies that represent a relatively narrow part of the market," Oppenheimer explained.

    One can't blame bubble hunters coming back out of hibernation.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up nearly 7% year-to-date, bringing its one year gain to 94%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are each up 4% this year — both indices have risen 70% in one year's time.

    Goldman's assurances on there not being a bubble comes as volatility has crept back into the market in recent weeks amid concerns about rising inflation as the U.S. economy kicks into gear as people get vaccinated. That has likely spurred concerns among investors of a short-term market top that is ripe to be unwound.

    Of note, Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid found Google searches for inflation are now at their highest levels since late 2010.

    "There is little doubt that concerns and interest around inflation are growing exponentially," Reid said.

    "The doves might point out that we saw similar spikes in 2008 and 2010/11 that didn’t ever translate into much actual inflation," explained Reid. The hawks would point out that one of the major differences between the post-GFC and post-COVID policy is the scale of the extraordinary fiscal response."

    MY COMMENT

    Pretty much mirrors what has been said in this thread for the past 6-9 months. As usual....the environment for business and investors over the next 4-24 months is.......as good as it gets. For long term investors........with rationality and reason.......even better. A definite POTENTIAL for historic gains and a historic rally.......on top of.....the past 12 years of historic BULL MARKET.
     
  4. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    i would walk barefooted over hot coals before i ever put a pair of nikes on my feet.
     
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  5. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I am a shareholder.......yet.....I have never owned a pair of Nike shoes. I have also....as far as I can remember.....never....owned a piece of Nike clothing. I buy my cloths at Walmart....LOL......I am serious. My shoes I buy on Amazon.

    Now my kids......that is a different story......bought a lot of Nike shoes for them.......of course....that is why I shop at Walmart for myself. I love the vintage....1990's Abercrombie flannel shirts for winter wear.....great quaity. I buy them on eBay for $5 to $15. Back in the 1990's they were $35 to $50 new.
     
    #4605 WXYZ, Mar 22, 2021
    Last edited: Mar 22, 2021
    Dax Martinez and oldmanram like this.
  6. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    My wife and I just got us a pair of Swiss “ON” shoes for our pickleball plays. They sooo rock!
     
  7. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    c'mon, you go to art galleries with paintings worth millions wearing off the rack clothes from walmart? my image of you was all wrong.
     
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  8. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    Emmet I’m changing my W design now, we were supposed to go public with his NFT figure but now after hearing this I don’t know if it will sell too well
     
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  9. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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  10. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    here is MY first post here... shall I auction it???
     
  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    You should definately auction that first post Zukodany. What are you asking?

    Emmett.....this is Texas.....dress for men is extremely casual....usually jeans and short sleeve shirt. I can go to a high end art event and at least half the men will be in jeans. If it is really fancy....I might wear BLACK jeans. It is the guy that is wearing an expensive suit that sticks out as abnormal.

    With men you might see some expensive accessories.....an expensive belt with a dressy sterling silver Bohlin buckle or an expensive watch or a nice ring.....but that is about it. Now....women....that can be a different story. For women it is still very casual...but....you know how that is. I do wear Dockers shoes....but from Amazon.

    I dont drive an expensive car either. With the number of miles I drive a car is just a commodity. I look for mid size SUV's that can carry equipment in the $28,000 to $35,000 range.....dependable and cheap to repair......that will hopefully get a minimum of 200,000 miles before they die.
     
    #4611 WXYZ, Mar 22, 2021
    Last edited: Mar 22, 2021
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  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    You should be able to auction the NFT of that first post here....Zukodany.

    https://www.auctionity.com/

    The #1 blockchain auction house
    for NFT, cryptocollectibles & ERC 721
     
  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    REMEMBER tomorrow......GameStop earnings come out after the close. From what I am seeing it might be their best earnings report in the past two years.

    PLEASE......I am NOT recommending this stock in the slightest.
     
  14. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    I like it
    Under “how it works” they should write- we bid on select listing and pump up the prices so all the idiots that acquired non existent currency can buy hyper inflated non existent items and add it to their Uber inflated non existent cloud

    fits perfectly into the “make believe” world that we live in
     
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  15. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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  16. mizugori

    mizugori New Member

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    Well I'm glad i picked up some Nike shares today! (I grabbed some Honeywell and HD also.)

    The whole GameStop thing is the perfect example of what confuses me about the stock market nowadays. GameStop is literally the next Blockbuster... their business is dead, in person sales of video games are fading out... why travel to a store that might not even have what you want when you can download it online? Besides, physical media degrades, takes up space, it is susceptible to damage, loss, etc...

    And why does a business need to operate and staff a ton of expensive retail locations, when you can just sell the games (either physical copies or downloads) online?

    Their biggest money maker has long been used game sales... yeah that's on its way out too, because again, why bother to buy video games in person anymore? Logically, as people buy less games in physical media, the available supply of used games will decrease. And people are fed up with the massive margin between what they will pay you for a used game vs what they will sell that used game for a few minutes later.

    From my perspective they have no sound business plan to escape this. It's a bunch of BS. They are going the way of the dodo bird, it's just a question of when.

    But... some idiots on Reddit get the idea to buy it to squeeze out short positions and... boom it's up hundreds of dollars a share.

    It scares me how much trading is becoming about social media rumors and innuendo rather than is this company a good value for this price, are they likely to make more money in the future, etc.

    I have a number of friends and coworkers that talk (brag) about 'trading' all the time. Yeah 100% of them are claiming to be day trading constantly and succeeding - I'm not buying it.
     
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  17. gtrudeau88

    gtrudeau88 Well-Known Member

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    Had a small 0.24% increase today in my stock account which puts me back to 6.7% ytd. IRA did better jumping .61% leaving it -.01% ytd.

    Encouraging to see increases in NVAX and KLIC. NVAX has gone up quite a bit from the lows 2 weeks ago and I've almost broken even on it. KLIC gained 1.6% today. GTN, KMI, and TRTN were down and kept me from doing real well today.
     
    #4617 gtrudeau88, Mar 22, 2021
    Last edited: Mar 23, 2021
  18. oldmanram

    oldmanram Well-Known Member

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    My wife bought me a pair of the ORIGINAL NIKE AIR MAX's , circa 1987, I think those are the last Nike's I've owned.

    Of course we buy our KIDS the best , that's why some of us shop for ourselves at Walmart, Target and Costco. In fact right now I am wearing a pair of Dan Posts I picked up St. Vinnies. LOL. When I found out we had a third child on the way, (all girls) MY wardrobe budget went to ZERO !! I USED to shop at some nice places (before children), Then the reality of :
    Saving for college (X three)
    Saving for retirement
    Saving for investments
    Saving for a new "USED" car for the wife
    Saving for a trip/trips to Disneyland
    All that comes along and the idea of new pair of boots goes out the window

    Also I second the casual , if I'm going to see a banker or broker I might put on dockers and nice shirt , but no more suits. Ow and a shine on my boots .
    And , for a vehicle I have a 2003 Dodge RAM 3500 Cummins Diesel, has 220,000 miles and is just broke in, should go 400,000 miles plus it gets 20 MPG.

    Did OK today , backslid in the afternoon , was up .90% noonish , settled at for UP .63%
    YTD UP 9.44%
    But the wife beat me again UP 1.07% today
     
    #4618 oldmanram, Mar 23, 2021
    Last edited: Mar 23, 2021
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  19. oldmanram

    oldmanram Well-Known Member

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    It's all about the bottom line , here's one for ya
    Yesterday my phone says I'm out of data , I can't text, Email is all screwed up, getting bad notices etc. go to Tmobile store (Ballard , hi volume store) , they can't figure it out , they say my phone is bad, I said it works fine the software is screwing up, they say well if you have insurance we can put in a claim for a new phone. I have an old Samsung S7, So I left, of course they will sell me a new $999 phone. I had an hour and a half drive to where I live, rural area , on the way I call my wife , she says her phone is doing the same thing !! OW crap did we get a VIRUS ?? I puiled into the little local Tmobile store, I walk in and 5 people are in line , while the techs are bashing away at the keyboards of there phones, I said "they did an update didn't they" everybody looks over and says YES ! Google updated a software and it screwed with all Samsung S7's , I wonder how many phones Tmobile sold across the country before before someone figured it out ?
    That's my rant for the day
    Markets Down guess I'll just go to work
     
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  20. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    NICE open so far today....at least in my account. I am sure today....so far....is one of those days that is going to be very specific to each person's account holdings. ALSO....I dont have a lot of confidence in the open today.....what will count is the close.

    I see that Powell and Yellen are going to be talking AGAIN today........in testimony to Congress. GIVE US A BREAK......just shut up. This CONSTANT talking, speeches, testimony is just insanity. How I long for the old days when the FED and the FED chair rarely spoke about anything.

    Here is what is going on:

    Stocks Slip Ahead of Powell’s Testimony
    S&P 500, Dow open lower and bond yields ease for third consecutive day

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stock-markets-dow-update-03-23-2021-11616489034

    (Bold is my opinion OR what I consider important content) (to see any more than below you have to be a subscriber)

    "U.S. stocks edged lower Tuesday ahead of testimony by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who plans to say that the U.S. economy’s recovery remains far from complete.

    The S&P 500 ticked down 0.2%, a modest pullback for the broad market index after the opening bell. The Nasdaq Composite Index was 0.2% lower, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down 0.3%, or 98 points.

    Mr. Powell plans to reiterate in a hearing before Congress that the central bank will continue providing support to the economy through loose monetary policy. He and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will begin two days of testimony at 12 p.m. ET. But optimism about the speed of the recovery and the possibility of rising inflation have left investors skeptical about the Fed’s plans for interest rates and bond purchases.

    Investors are also reassessing their expectations for a fast and widespread global recovery, which had led to rising bets earlier this year that companies sensitive to an economic recovery would benefit. Rising Covid-19 cases in Europe and recent extensions to lockdowns in Germany, France and Italy are also weighing on sentiment."

    MY COMMENT

    I know these people.....Powell and Yellen....are political animals.....but come on investors.....how many times do they need to REPEAT what they are going to do. This "stuff" with investors......."are skeptical".......is just plain dumb.

    YES.......the media, and modern incompetence, and politics is making people CRAZY. This "stuff" is EXACTLY why the ONLY way to invest.......and....maintain your sanity is to be a long term investor. The short term stuff....the incessant speculation and drama......will make you a BAD investor. It will cause you to doubt yourself. It will cause you to doubt your plan. It will cause you to doubt your holdings. It will cause you to market time and try to anticipate....what can NOT be anticipated. There is NO reason to any of it. It is TOTAL herd behavior by the media LEMMINGS. BEWARE.
     

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