The Long Term Investor

That is a pretty good rant....oldmanram. LOL. EVERYTHING in modern society is a conspiracy to drive everyone CRAZY.

 

AND....if the above is not enough.....here is another MORON from the FED that can NOT keep their mouth shut.

Fed’s Kaplan Estimates First U.S. Rate Increase Will Be in 2022

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-kaplan-estimates-first-u-130705108.html

MY COMMENT

Not going to even post the article. It is NOTHING more than his opinion and position with the FED. He is the Dallas Federal Reserve president. He is OBVIOUSLY out there pushing his view and trying to line up support for his opinion. Of course....this MORON.....is not even a voter on this years FED Open Market Committee......he gets to vote in 2023.

SHUT UP....AND SIT DOWN........GO AWAY.

 

OH WELL......as long as I am on this.....left turn into insanity....here is more on this topic.

Stock market news live updates: Stocks mixed after as traders await Powell, Yellen testimony

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-march-23-2021-221637975.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Stocks traded mixed Tuesday, shaking off some earlier declines after rising COVID-19 cases abroad prompted an extended lockdown in Europe's largest economy. Investors looked ahead to commentary from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.

The Dow, S&P 500 traded slightly higher, while the Nasdaq dipped. Treasury yields pulled back further, and the yield on the benchmark 10-year note hovered around 1.64%.

A still-dire COVID-19 situation prompted Germany to announce a one-month extension to its stringent lockdown measures early Tuesday, calling into question the pace of the global recovery from the pandemic. Meanwhile, shares of AstraZeneca (AZN.L) declined after the U.S. Data and Safety Monitoring Board said the drugmaker may have used outdated information and provided an "incomplete" assessment of the efficacy of its COVID-19 vaccine earlier this week. Though the inoculation has not been approved in the U.S., it has been administered to about 5 million Europeans so far.

Traders later Tuesday morning will be closely eyeing remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen before the U.S. House Financial Services Committee, in the duo's latest public appraisal of the role fiscal and monetary policy have played in the economic recovery coming out of the COVID-19 pandemic.

According to prepared remarks, Powell is set to reiterate that the "recovery is far from complete," thereby bolstering the case for a staunchly accommodative policy stance from the Fed, while also acknowledging that the recovery to this point has "progressed more quickly than generally expected" in the U.S. Yellen is set to make similar points, suggesting that "we should be clear-eyed about the hole we're digging out of," as the economy remains about 10 million jobs short of its pre-pandemic levels.

Powell's latest remarks will add to a constellation of data coming out of the Fed as of late, with the central bank's latest monetary policy decision having come out less than a week ago. While the Fed has remained resolute in its messaging that it is too early to even begin considering slowing their asset purchase program or raising interest rates, markets have suggested they need more convincing. Treasury yields climbed by about 60 basis points over the past two months in anticipation of both a strong economic recovery and of inflation, which some believe might come in faster and prove more sustained than expected and force a near-term Fed move.

"I think what the overall market is missing is that there’s a big difference between a temporary price increase and a sustained process of inflation. So what investors are reacting to now, is some statements by the Federal Reserve that they are prepared to run the economy a little bit hot for a period of time as a way of jumpstarting the economy back from all the scarring that we’ve had as a result of COVID," Cheryl Smith, Trillium Asset Management portfolio manager, told Yahoo Finance.

"And because the market – the bond market in particular – is still very sensitized to inflation 30 years after we last had substantial inflation, they are looking for every single possible place that they can find a price going up, and looking at it and jumping up and down and saying, 'Wow, there’s inflation, it’s going to happen,'" she added. "We’ve been looking for it for 14 years, it hasn’t shown up. I really think the bond market is entirely too freaked out about this and really wants the Fed to go back to the old policy, that at any moment that you saw the slightest hint of inflation, to just shut down the labor market. And that’s really the wrong policy for now."

—

10:25 a.m. ET: New home sales plunge by the most since 2013 in February amid harsh weather
New home sales slumped by the most in 8 years in February as harsh winter weather blanketed much of the country last month, crimping home-buying.

Sales of new home declined by 18.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 775,000 in February, according to the Commerce Department. this followed a downwardly revised rise of 3.2% during the prior month. Consensus economists were looking for new home sales to fall by just 5.7%, according to Bloomberg data.

—

9:48 a.m. ET: Stocks have seen their best 12 months since 1936
Tuesday marks the one-year anniversary of the pandemic-era low on March 23, 2020, when the S&P 500 sank to 2,237.4 as uncertainty around the COVID-19 crisis hit fever pitch.

In the year since, the S&P 500 has rallied 76%, marking its best one-year gain in 85 years. Unprecedented levels of monetary and fiscal stimulus helped support the rebound off last year's nadir in the markets.

"The S&P 500 has now seen its largest 12-month gain since 1936, exceeding that seen in 2010 after the GFC [global Financial Crisis]," Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid wrote in a note. "The turnaround started 2 days after the Fed’s momentous March 22, 2020 meeting where amongst other things they offered to buy corporate bonds for the first time in their history."

MY COMMENT

HERE is what REALLY counts in this little article....the admission that the FED and others have been chasing the inflation BOGEYMAN for the past 30 years.....actually the past 35 years. They are chasing the GHOST of the Stagflation of the late 1970's and early 1980's.

"And because the market – the bond market in particular – is still very sensitized to inflation 30 years after we last had substantial inflation, they are looking for every single possible place that they can find a price going up, and looking at it and jumping up and down and saying, 'Wow, there’s inflation, it’s going to happen,'" she added. "We’ve been looking for it for 14 years, it hasn’t shown up. I really think the bond market is entirely too freaked out about this and really wants the Fed to go back to the old policy, that at any moment that you saw the slightest hint of inflation, to just shut down the labor market. And that’s really the wrong policy for now."

The markets....needing more confirmation and hand holding from the FED is just plain DUMB. They just spoke last Wednesday....and here we are four working days later wanting to hear them REPEAT the same thing over again for the 500th time in the last six months.

BUT.......NEWS FLASH......we have a NEW story line being FEAR MONGERED for all of us to worry about.......the reopening of the EU and Europe.....might be delayed. Another big JOKE on investors.

HERE is a PHOTO of the typical MODERN investor:

 

Actually I should ADOPT that picture of....THE SCREAM....as the AVATAR for the "mythical" long term investor in today's society.

 

This is a REALLY nice little article. Pretty well sums up EVERYTHING as well as LONG TERM INVESTING as a strategy for investors.

As Long-Term Interest Rates Rise, Here's What Investors Should Be Thinking About

https://seekingalpha.com/article/44...heres-what-investors-should-be-thinking-about

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Summary

• After years of artificially low interest rates and inflation, it's understandable that some investors are disoriented by the current headlines-and worried about what to do next.
• Before this year, inflation and rising rates were a distant memory for many investors, if not entirely unfamiliar.
• As the economy, markets, and individual companies move from 2020's economic shutdown through the re-opening phase, volatility and rotation are par for the course."

John P. Calamos, Sr., Founder, Chairman and Global Chief Investment Officer

"After years of artificially low interest rates and inflation, it's understandable that some investors are disoriented by the current headlines-and worried about what to do next. Long-term yields have moved up very quickly from 0.93% on December 31, 2020, to close at 1.71% on March 18, 2021. Market volatility and a leadership rotation-from growth stocks to cyclical and value names-have added to the unease many investors are feeling.

In my view, some of the turbulence we've seen has been driven by sentiment, rather than fundamentals. However, there's no doubt that as the U.S. and global economies accelerate, there will be new opportunities and new risks. Fiscal policy uncertainty, including the potential for tax increases, is likely to fuel volatility and rotation in the markets and, depending on the outcomes, the longer-term growth trajectory of the economy as a whole.

For many investors, now is a good time to review their current asset allocations. Here are some points to keep in mind:

1. What we are seeing on the inflation front is neither surprising nor out of control. The economy is re-opening, and pent-up consumer demand is being released in line with expectations. It's important to remember that inflation has been extraordinarily low for many years, and the ramp-up in inflation that has occurred is a change based off these very low levels. We're likely to see this trend continue over these next quarters. For perspective, however, inflation is still trending well below the Fed's target on its preferred measure, with January Core PCE coming in at just 1.5%. What we are seeing today is much more benign than what occurred in the 1970s or 1980s, when we had sustained periods of double-digit inflation.
   
   
2. A more normal relationship between dividend yields and Treasury yields has re-emerged. Although it hasn't necessarily been the case over recent years, investors have traditionally looked to bonds for yield and to stocks for capital appreciation. Treasury yields were kept artificially low in 2020 through the extraordinary actions that the government and Federal Reserve took in response to the pandemic. Now, however, as the chart below shows, these lines have crossed back to a more normal relationship.
   
   Figure 1. 10-year Treasury yields versus S&P 500 dividend yields
   February 2011-March 15, 2021 (%)
   
   
   Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: Bloomberg.
   
   
3. The U.S. economy is in a period of healing-not overheating. The change in 10-year yields reflects a return to growth, supported by employment gains and a resumption of consumer activity. Although rates have risen quickly, they are still relatively low if we look back over decades (Figure 2).
   
   Figure 2. 10-year Treasury yields have risen but are still low versus long-term levels
   
   
   Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
   
   While long-term rates can be influenced by many factors, we believe the Federal Reserve's stance-including its attentiveness to financial conditions overall-can help prevent an unchecked steepening of the yield curve. In his March 17 comments, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell affirmed the Fed's commitment to an accommodative approach, including its intention to hold off on short-term rate hikes until 2022 or 2023 while maintaining its bond purchases until the economy has strengthened further.
   
   
4. Asset allocations should change over time, but the principles of asset allocation don't. The evolving economic environment may mean that it's time for you to make adjustments to the mix of strategies that you hold, but you shouldn't lose sight of your risk tolerance or the long-term benefits of maintaining a well-diversified portfolio that includes a breadth of asset classes.
   
   
5. Long-term focus and risk management never go out of style. This year, we've seen the S&P 500 hit new highs. There've been headlines about astronomical, out-of-nowhere gains in a handful of stocks, and value stocks have rallied with added strength. These sorts of events cause many investors to wonder if they should go where the action is, but chasing performance is never a good long-term strategy-especially in fast-moving markets like these. You're far more likely to miss the upside and capture the downside. This is especially important given the likelihood of continued rotation and volatility in this phase of the market cycle.
   
   
6. There are always opportunities for long-term investors. I began my investing career in the difficult financial markets of the 1970s, and there are important lessons from those years that I always carry with me. My experiences helping my clients navigate staggering inflation, soaring interest rates and market volatility helped me forge the investment philosophy I rely on today. The foundation of this philosophy is the belief that there are opportunities in every environment for the long-term and risk-conscious investor.
   
   However, finding this opportunity often requires looking off the beaten path. For example, in the 1970s, stocks and bonds both faced headwinds-which made the potential of convertible securities that much more intriguing. Then, convertibles were an underfollowed hybrid asset class that offered the best of both worlds, as they have through the decades since. Today, I see bright prospects for convertible strategies-either within an enhanced fixed income allocation or as a way to achieve lower volatility equity participation. Issuance continues to be strong, as companies continue to seek access to capital in a growing economy, with lower borrowing costs than non-convertible debt.
   
   While convertible securities allow their issuers to monetize the volatility of their underlying stocks and borrow at a lower rate, there are considerable benefits to investors as well. The chart below highlights how convertible securities have historically provided a way for investors to hedge against a rising interest rate environment, including through this most recent period of rising rates.
   
   Bonds tend to lose value in an environment of rising interest rates. However, convertible returns have tended to more closely reflect equity returns than bond returns when the 10-year Treasury yield has risen more than 100 basis points. With active management, the benefits may be even more pronounced.
   
   Figure 3. Convertible securities can be a ballast against rising interest rates
   
   
   Performance data quoted represents past performance, which is no guarantee of future results. Current performance may be lower or higher than the performance quoted. Indexes are unmanaged, do not reflect fees or expenses and are not available for direct investment. Source: Morningstar. Data shown is cumulative. Rising rate environment periods from troughs to peak based on data available through February 28, 2021, the most recent month end.
   
   
7. Guard against "home country" bias. Many investors are short-changing the diversification and growth potential of their portfolios by underallocating to non-U.S. markets, including emerging markets. There are significant long-term opportunities in the emerging markets, supported by a combination of global economic recovery, a weak U.S. dollar regime, and a variety of long-term growth themes. (This was the focus of our March 10 webcast)
   
   Indeed, the term "emerging markets" has become a misnomer-these economies have truly emerged. Together, emerging markets represent more than half of the global economy, but less than 1/20th of investor asset allocations.
   
   Figure 4. Emerging market equities: Overlooked opportunity
   
   
   Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: GSAM January 2019, IMF, SIFMA Fact Book.
   
   Additionally, emerging market equities and U.S. equities have alternated leadership. As shown below, these leadership regimes have been sustained over extended periods. Although emerging markets have paused recently as investors focus more exclusively on the strength of the U.S. recovery, we expect emerging markets to benefit from many tailwinds as recovery becomes more synchronized globally. Investors who have strategic allocations to emerging markets may be better positioned in the long run.
   
   Figure 5. EM vs U.S. Leadership Cycles Over Time: Rolling 5-Year Total Return Differential
   
   
   Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: Bloomberg.
   
   
8. Capitalize on economic recovery with small-cap growth strategies. Large-cap stocks have dominated investor attention through recent years, and many investors may have overlooked the opportunities that smaller growth-oriented companies-tomorrow's leaders-offer. Small caps have tended to perform well during similar points of past economic cycles, with leadership regimes that have typically lasted years. (For more on these leadership cycles, see the post by Senior Portfolio Manager Brandon Nelson, "The Bullish Case for Small- and Mid-cap Growth Stocks."
   
   
9. It's important to maintain a balance between growth and value companies. Value stocks and cyclical names have enjoyed a nice bounce as investors have become more concerned about interest rates and the relative attractiveness of growth companies and other long-duration assets at this point of the economic cycle.
   
   
   However, growth stocks are an asset allocation cornerstone-and thinking of growth and value as an "either/or" proposition is a mistake, in my view. Rising interest rates may have made the cost of capital higher, but it's still cheap overall. Strong and innovative growth businesses can continue to deliver, benefiting from healthy balance sheets. For these sorts of companies, even incremental revenue improvements can significantly boost margins. Additionally, cyclicals may enjoy short bursts of outperformance as the economy ramps up in recovery mode, but typically these bursts don't last long. We believe companies that can deliver sustainable growth after the current re-opening trade runs its course remain compelling.
   
   
10. Rethink-but don't abandon-your fixed income allocation. While traditional fixed income investments-like long-dated Treasury bonds-are likely to face added pressure as interest rates rise, I encourage investors to remember it's a market of bonds, not a bond market. In other words, there's a great deal of variation and opportunity in the fixed income markets. A well-diversified portfolio reflects this.
    
    In this phase of the economic cycle, high yield bonds provide compelling opportunities, as default rates decline from 2020 levels and economic recovery provides a wind in the sails for select issuers. Additionally, short-term bond strategies can provide a haven from short-term volatility in the equity markets, with relatively less duration risk versus longer-term bonds and more potential upside than cash. Convertible securities and liquid alternatives (such as market neutral income) can also enhance a fixed income allocation with less duration risk. (For more on using liquid alternatives in an enhanced fixed income allocation, see "Rising Rates Don't Intimidate Fixed Income Alt CMNIX.")

Conclusion
Before this year, inflation and rising rates were a distant memory for many investors, if not entirely unfamiliar. As the economy, markets, and individual companies move from 2020's economic shutdown through the re-opening phase, volatility and rotation are par for the course. New themes and opportunities are emerging. In this environment, our teams are taking an active approach-thinking long term and capitalizing on volatility on behalf of investors.""

MY COMMENT

A very nice little article.....with.....a recommendation in favor of LONG TERM INVESTING......and good analysis of the current conditions.

 

WOW......I will definately take it.....green today...slightly. Green is green. And....beat the SP500 by .88%. Six of twelve holdings were Up today.

I got a shock when I looked at the entire group of accounts today. It showed a LOSS for the day of nearly $100,000. I could not see any of the actual accounts so I thought WTF happened to the markets today? When I could see the accounts I remembered that $98,000 in cash was taken out of one account today by a family member to use for their taxes......so that is the reason for Schwab showing that drop today. After seeing that it felt good to see the little bit of green in each account today,

 

HERE is an indicator of......something. That the pandemic is over and it is time to dry out? That people have switched to weed? That wives and girlfriends are FINALLY giving an ultimatum to the guys? Everyone went into rehab? Who knows....but it MUST mean something.

Alcohol sales fell for the first time since the pandemic began

https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/23/business/alcohol-sales-decline-coronavirus/index.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"The bender appears to be over for booming booze sales sparked by the pandemic.

For the first time in a year, since Covid-19 began spreading across the United States forcing Americans to stay home, retail alcohol sales have fallen. That's according to newly released data from Nielsen, which reported that total sales declined 1.9% for the week ending March 13.

This time a year ago, consumers stockpiled alcohol as shelter-in-place orders were implemented across several US states and bars and restaurants were closed or reduced service. As a result, retail alcohol sales shot up as much as 55% in March 2020 with spirits, wine and beer among the top sellers.

Now, that trend appears to be waning, according to Danelle Kosmal, vice president of beverage alcohol at NielsenIQ.
"We have officially surpassed one year of drastic shifts in consumer and shopper behaviors resulting from the pandemic in the United States. At this time last year, alcohol volume experienced massive shifts from the on-premise to off-premise," Kosmal said in a statement.

The decline also reflects the reopening of bars and restaurants, which contribute heavily to alcohol sales. Nielsen said Tuesday's report doesn't track that metric, which is known as on-premise sales.

Wine sales fell 8% for the week ending March 13, with spirits flat and beer sales slightly higher thanks to the continued popularity of spiked seltzers. If Nielsen excluded seltzer sales from its beer measurement, that category would have fallen more than 2% for the week. Perhaps more notably, total alcohol sales for the week would have fallen 3% if not for hard seltzers.

In recent weeks, several new seltzers have hit the market including iced tea flavors of White Claw and a higher alcohol-by-volume offering from Truly. New options from Topo Chico and Spindrift also will soon be for sale.

Despite the declines, consumers are still buying lots of booze. Nielsen said that retail sales of spirits, wine and beer arestill roughly 20% to 30% higher this month compared to March 2019. The research firm warns that those trends will "flatten" in the coming weeks as more states reopen.

MY COMMENT

NO COMMENT.....see comments above.

 

HERE is a pretty good summary of where we are now......one year down the road. Pretty amazing stuff considering all that has happened.

Bitcoin, Tesla And GameStop: Ten Numbers That Sum Up The Fastest Market Recovery Ever

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonath...m=email&utm_source=newsletter&sh=1d0aefffcdeb

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Within just five weeks last year, the longest bull market on record erased three years’ worth of stock gains, crashing more than 30% from an all-time high in February to a pandemic low on March 23, the day Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell pledged to use the central bank’s “full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time.” Exactly one year and trillions of dollars in government spending later, stocks have staged a historic rally, taking investors on a wild ride.

Some highlights: Electric carmaker Tesla is now one of the most valuable companies in the world, the cryptocurrency market has swelled to more than $1 trillion and so-called meme stocks dominate Wall Street commentary with volatile swings that force exchanges to halt trading. It’s still unclear how long the new bull market can last, but one year after one of the worst stock market crashes in history, here's a look at its monumental recovery.

S&P 500
Up 76%

The S&P 500 has skyrocketed over the past year, hitting its latest high on Wednesday and marking what LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick calls the “best start to a bull market ever.” It took just five months for the index to recover its steep Covid-induced losses, the fastest recovery ever for a correction of more than 30%. To compare, it took the S&P a staggering 20 months to recover after the index crashed by 34% in 1987. High-flying technology stocks like Amazon, Zoom and Tesla led the market to new highs last year, but this year, energy stocks have been heading up the index’s resurgence. The S&P 500 Energy Index is still about 10% off its prepandemic levels, but it’s surged 103% over the past year. Materials and financials aren’t far behind, climbing 92% and 90%, respectively.

Dow Jones Industrial Average
Up 76%
The Dow, which counts 30 market leaders in its ranks, has also soared 76% over the past year, though its pandemic low was on March 16, one week before the S&P's trough. A testament to the economy’s impending recovery, cyclical stocks–which tend to outperform during periods of growth but fall hard during recessions–have driven the index's gains. Top performer Boeing tanked more than 70% in the pandemic’s early days, but it’s rocketed 165% over the past year. Meanwhile, storied investment bank Goldman Sachs nabs the Dow’s second-biggest gain, surging 145% as analysts look toward financials to lead the market this year. Equipment maker Caterpillar, commodities giant Dow Inc. and Walt Disney round out the top five Dow stocks over the past year—all surging at least 125%.

Nasdaq
Up 95%
A new stay-at-home normal that catapulted stocks like Peloton, Zoom and Slack helped the tech-heavy Nasdaq climb to meteoric highs during the pandemic, but tech’s dominance has been threatened in recent weeks. The index is down about 5% from a high on February 12, as rising Treasury yields fuel concerns that investors may sell off high-priced tech stocks in favor of the risk-free asset class. But experts aren’t too worried yet. “It’s a buckle-your-seatbelt moment for tech stocks, but we believe this selloff has created a golden opportunity for investors to own secular tech winners for the next three to five years,” says Wedbush analyst Dan Ives.

Russell 2000
Up 126%
Massive fiscal stimulus spending, including nearly $720 billion in forgivable loans doled out to small businesses, has been a boon to the Russell 2000, a basket of small-cap stocks with market values that are typically less than $1 billion. The index has outperformed the broader market and posted its best quarter ever during the pandemic. With President Joe Biden’s lofty $1.9 trillion stimulus plan shoring up fresh funding for the economic recovery—and an even bigger $3 trillion infrastructure plan in the works, Bank of America analysts say they think small caps will continue to outperform larger companies this year.

Meme Stock Mania
GameStop: Up 5,005%

Perhaps most emblematic of the market’s bullish mania are the staggering gains in the meme stocks popularized by an army of Reddit traders in late January. Heading up gains is GameStop, the past year’s best-performing stock in the Russell 2000. The Grapevine, Texas-based video game retailer reached a meteoric high on January 27, as retail traders coordinated an effort to buy up Wall Street’s most heavily shorted companies, stirring a panic among hedge funds that exited their positions with steep losses. Short interest has plummeted since, and the rally’s taken a breather, but two months into the frenzy, GameStop’s still sporting eye-popping gains that have landed prices at more than ten times analysts’ average one-year price expectations. Meanwhile, meme stocks AMC Entertainment and BlackBerry are also holding up, climbing 300% and 200%, respectively, over the past year.

The S&P’s Biggest Gainer
ViacomCBS: Up 790%
ViacomCBS, the S&P’s best-performing stock over the past year (save for a couple new additions on Monday–Penn National Gaming and Caesars Entertainment), is another testament to the recent retail trading frenzy. The company, founded in 2019 by the merger between CBS and Viacom, has long garnered bearish calls from analysts, but with short interest that’s roughly five times greater than the S&P’s average, shares have skyrocketed in the months since Reddit traders started plowing into heavily shorted stocks. Though its Paramount+ streaming service has helped improve its outlook, one analyst last week said the stock has “run too far” and climbed too high.

The S&P’s Few Losers
Gilead Sciences: Down 10%
The past year’s raging bull market is not without its losses. The S&P’s worst-performing stock over the period belongs to California-based Gilead Sciences, which surged alongside other biotech companies in January 2020 as the pandemic took hold, but has floundered ever since. The company’s Covid-19 treatment, remdesivir, pulled roughly $3 billion in sales last year, and it was even hailed as a miracle treatment by former President Donald Trump, but like with other biotechs last year, investors lost interest. Only four S&P stocks have fallen over the past year, and three of them, including Biogen and Viatris, are biotechs.

Tesla’s New Dominance
Up 670%

Shares of electric carmaker Tesla—last year’s best-performing S&P 500 stock—are down for the year and have plunged nearly 25% from a late-January high—yet another sign the recently booming market for tech stocks could be over once post-pandemic spending drives growth into other industries. Tesla made its S&P debut in December and now carries about 1.5% of the index’s weight, but some experts are worried the stock’s increased volatility could spell trouble for the index-tracking funds that represent trillions in market value.

Bitcoin’s Resurgence
Up 730%

The price of the world’s largest cryptocurrency has skyrocketed over the past year amid booming institutional adoption and heightened inflationary concerns fueled by massive government spending to combat the pandemic. Just this month, Morgan Stanley became the first big bank to offer up bitcoin exposure to wealthy clients (though it’s limiting the funds to investors with “an aggressive risk tolerance”), and Goldman Sachs is also dabbling in the space with a cryptocurrency trading desk that opened up this month.

Oil’s Wild Ride
Up 160%
At $61.55, the price of a barrel of U.S. oil benchmark West Texas Intermediate stands at nearly three times the price of $23.36 one year ago, but the oil market’s volatile ride has been anything but a straight shot up. Prices seeped into negative territory for the first time in history last April, when pandemic lockdowns led to a glut in supply that became too expensive to maintain. Now, experts are bullish that prices can continue to bounce back as the world reopens. “We’re going to need more supply as demand comes roaring back, and add to that all the stimulus that’s been pumped out by governments, the massive growth in money supply and I think we’re headed toward a global synchronized economic recovery that’s going to be pretty strong,” NOV Inc. Chairman and CEO Clay C. Williams said in an earnings call last month of energy’s impending boom."

MY COMMENT

IN SPITE of EVERYTHING......long term investors are near all time highs. When we look back in five or ten years.......nothing that happened this PAST year will be recognizable in a long term chart of the SP500. It will simply look like another very nice UP year in the average. The POWER of long term investing to get through and to the other side of short term market conditions and DRAMA.

 

HERE are a few other news items of interest today:

Robinhood Is Said to Have Filed Confidentially for U.S. IPO

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/robinhood-said-filed-confidentially-u-200708564.html

US STOCKS-Stocks slide as stimulus, infrastructure costs spook investors

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-stocks-stocks-slide-stimulus-202234480.html

GameStop shares rise on e-commerce sales jump, new COO

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/23/gamestop-shares-rise-on-e-commerce-sales-jump-new-coo.html

MY COMMENT

The FED and YELLEN need to.......STFU. for that matter Congress needs to butt out too. They basically tanked the markets today with their.......political performance art and posturing.

The media currently has about ten.....DOOM&GLOOM......FEAR MONGERING.....balls in the air at once. Inflation, yields, the EU and Europe reopening, the FED, the deficit spending, tax increases, Bitcoin, the rotation to value, mortgage rates surging, the infrastructure bill spending, etc, etc, etc.

A pretty nice WALL OF WORRY there. This should keep stocks going up for a long time over the next 4-24 months. It should also keep the TABLOID financial media in clicks for a long time going forward. For LONG TERM INVESTORS......simply IGNORE ALL of it.

 

WELL.....we got the markets open today....that is a victory. AND....the DOW, SP500, and Russell are ALL positive. ONLY the NASDAQ seems to care about yields, etc, etc, etc. Interesting since the Big CAP and the Medium Cap and the Small Cap represented by all those various averages......DONT seem to care at all.

Just another indicator that what goes on short term is simply......IRRATIONAL.

I see from some of the articles today that year over year the markets in general are UP over 70%. GUESS things worked out pretty well for those that had the guts to be long term over the past year. I am sure.....as I have seen in EVERY skittish time period in my entire life of investing......that there are HUGE numbers of people....STILL waiting to try to figure out when to get back in. SAD.

The bull market in stocks is heading into its second year, and history suggests a 17% gain could be in store

https://markets.businessinsider.com...-market-suggests-gain-ahead-2021-3-1030233743

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)


"This week is the one-year anniversary of the end of the fastest bear market on record and the start of a new bull.

With the bull market about to enter its second year, LPL looked at historical data to gauge how stocks may trade over the next 12 months.

The second year of a bull market tends to build upon its gains, rising an average 17% following a bear market decline of more than 30%, according to LPL."
"It's been one year since the stock market found its bottom amid the fastest bear market on record, in which the S&P 500 fell more than 30% amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

One year later, the bull market in stocks is alive and well, with the S&P 500 rising as much as 75% to new record highs since the bear market low on March 23, 2020. That's the strongest start to a new bull market on record, according to data from LPL.

Now entering its second year, the bull market will likely build upon its gains and continue to move higher with some volatile swings along the way, according to a Monday note from LPL.

Since World War II, bull markets that began after a sharp bear market decline of more than 30% saw average second year gains of 17%, LPL highlighted. But a pickup in volatility is likely, with an average 10% sell-off in the second year of a bull market, according to historical data analyzed by the firm.

The bull market that began in 2009 saw a similar start to the current bull run, gaining 69% in its first year. In its second year, stocks managed to gain 16% despite suffering a brief 17% sell-off.

"Considering the current bull market reflected the best start to a bull market ever, this could open the door for an above-average pullback during year two," LPL said.

If an above-average pullback does occur during the second year of the current bull market, LPL recommends investors consider "buying the dip". The firm has high confidence in stocks due to the current pace of vaccine distribution, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and a robust economic recovery.

And as to whether a rise in interest rates will lead to a large contraction in stock valuations, "we see that as unlikely," LPL said. The firm reiterated its year-end S&P 500 price target of 4,100, representing potential upside of 5% from Friday's close.

"
"

MY COMMENT

Welcome to the OLD normal. Stocks NEVER just go straight up......and they are NEVER predictable......at least short term. My opinion.....these articles that talk about the NEW BULL MARKET that started a years ago and somewhat inaccurate since the fall a year ago was TOTALLY ARTIFICIAL.....having nothing to do with any fundamentals or business conditions. In my mind we are just in a CONTINUATION of the OLD bull market. BUT.....that is semantics....who cares.....the point is to see the gains rack up over the long term.

 

HERE is another view.....similar but more detail. AGAIN a positive reflection of the past year.....the present.....and the future.

The new S&P 500 bull market is about to enter its second year. Now what?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...to-enter-its-second-year-now-what-11616525341

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"The S&P 500 index recorded its best 12-months of performance in the history of the index’s publication on Tuesday, a gain of 74.78%, following its spectacular bear-market plunge a year ago.

While the S&P 500 SPX, +0.64% closed modestly lower Tuesday, its overall climb during the pandemic adds up to the largest 12-month gain for the index since it began being published in 1957, according to Tim Edwards, managing director of index investment strategy at S&P Global, which owns the Dow Jones Indices.

But beyond the first anniversary of the U.S. stock-market lows hit during the onset of the coronavirus pandemic last year, the S&P 500 also could be poised for second banner year of gains.

“After falling nearly 34%, it took only five months for the S&P 500 to recover its losses,” wrote Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial in a Monday note, referring to S&P 500’s plunge to a March 23, 2020 low from its prior Feb. 19, 2020 peak.

Its full recovery was marked last August with the fastest bounceback ever for the S&P 500 from a loss of more than 30%, while its gains for the year have outshone prior bouts of upheaval for financial markets.

“Things have come full circle now, as stocks have staged a furious rally, with new highs happening across the globe as the economy recovers at a record pace,” Detrick said. “To put things in perspective, the S&P 500 also lost 34% in 1987, but that recovery took 20 months to get back to new highs.”

Last year’s stock market rout began in the U.S. in February with the confluence of rising coronavirus infections and new restrictions on travel and business activities, which first pulled the S&P 500 SPX, +0.64%, Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +1.04% and Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -0.06% down 10% into correction mode, and then quickly 20% lower into bear market territory.

To help stave off a financial crisis, the Federal Reserve slashed its benchmark interest rate to a range of zero to 0.25%, a level it expects to maintain through 2023, and restarted central bank bond purchases to the tune of $120 billion monthly. It also unleashed an unprecedented slate of pandemic lending facilities, including buying corporate debt for the first time ever.

After that, it took little time for the U.S. stock market to find its footing, with the S&P 500 entering its current bull-market run on April 8, 2020, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The Dow’s recovery began earlier on March 26, while the Nasdaq Composite followed on April 14.

A bull market in an asset occurs when its value rises 20% from its most recent low, while a 20% decline occurs when an asset falls by at least 20% from its most recent peak, according to Dow Jones data.

Bear to Bull
More bullish views on the U.S. economic recovery also began to solidify last summer as progress on the development of COVID-19 vaccines started to emerge.

By July, Moderna Inc. MRNA, -0.38% was offering updates on its vaccine candidate and a month later, all three major stock indexes were hitting fresh all-time highs.

So now what? The U.S. vaccination effort has outpaced Europe, where German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Tuesday called the dominant U.K. variant of the virus a “new pandemic,” while also outlining stricter lockdown measures over the coming Easter holiday period.

But if history can be a guide for today’s market, the S&P 500 still could be poised for a second year of banner gains.

This chart shows first-year bull market gains averaged 41% for the S&P 500, following the six bear-market reversals of a magnitude of greater than 30% since World War II.


Bull markets, following more than 30% drop
LPL Research, FactSet
But the chart also shows second-year gains averaged almost 17%, while pullbacks averaged 10.2%.

Reflation phase
Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, said he expects risk assets to see more upside as the market enters a “reflation” phase of the recovery, in a note Tuesday.

The CIO also said investors should “hunt for yield,” while also bracing for high growth, rising inflation and low policy interest rates.

Yields in the investment-grade slice of the roughly $10.5 trillion U.S. corporate bond market were last spotted near 2.27%, according to the ICE BofA Corporate Index, up from a pandemic low of about 1.79% in January.

Investors have become worried about the potential for rising government bond yields to sap some of the lofty pandemic gains seen in the technology and high-growth sectors of the stock market, even though banks and financial companies could stand to benefit from the ability to charge more interest to borrowers.

Matthew Bartolini, State Street Global Advisors’ head of SPDR Americas research pointed out Tuesday that interest in value-oriented and cyclical areas of the market led $8 billion of new assets to flow into the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund XLF, +1.85% so far in 2021. The fund was up 12.5% on the year to date Tuesday, outperforming the S&P 500’s near 4.1% gain.

The 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.641% was near 1.637% Tuesday, after climbing seven weeks in a row to 1.729% Friday, close to its one-year high.

“While a pickup in volatility would be normal as this stage of a strong bull market, we think suitable investors may want to consider buying the dip,” Detrick said. “Vaccine distribution, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and a robust economic recovery all have our confidence high.”"

MY COMMENT

OK....bring it on. AS USUAL......the short term is opaque....the long term is very promising

 

I like this little BLOG article......seems right on point with the current market and the ability of investors to.....think they can....make short term market calls. YES, we ALL know on some level......whether we are willing to admit it or not.......that this is not possible. How do we know....because we can.....ALL....see and calculate our REAL total returns and compare them to the averages. Now whether or not we want to see or accept what the data tells us....that is another issue. There is always some EXCUSE or REASON for why investors continue to use and exhibit FAILING behavior.

Started From the Bottom

https://ofdollarsanddata.com/started-from-the-bottom/

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"It’s been one year since the market bottomed during the coronavirus crash on March 23, 2020. I remember that day well because it was the same day I published this blog post explaining why it can be so lucrative to buy during a crisis. Yes, publishing this on the day of the bottom was pure luck, but my bullish stance wasn’t.

Since then I have received comments from many readers about how much this post helped them when times looked the toughest. As a result, I want to revisit the prior year and some of the lessons I have learned since the bottom.

We May Never See a Better 1-Year Rally
If you had bought the S&P 500 on March 23, 2020, you would now be up by 76% (excluding dividends):


76% in a single year! Returns like that don’t come often. In fact, if you look at the distribution of 1-year returns for the Dow since 1915, you will see how much of an outlier the prior year has been:


Since 1915 there have only been two periods that had higher returns over the prior year:

• July 1933
• March 1934

Both of these periods occurred during the recovery from The Great Depression.

Therefore, without a doubt March 23, 2020 was a generational buying opportunity. In fact, it may have been a lifetime buying opportunity. If these kinds of crashes (and their subsequent recoveries) continue to be as rare as they have been throughout history, then we may not see a higher 1-year return in U.S. stocks for the rest of our lives.

It seems hard to believe, but we just lived through the stock market equivalent of Halley’s comet. However, unlike Halley’s comet, whose future path is known, we have no idea when another market rally of this magnitude will occur.

It’s Easy to Feel Like an Investment Genius Right Now
Due to the strong returns over the prior year, it’s very easy to feel like an investment genius right now. As Michael Batnick recently highlighted, regardless of size or valuation decile, anyone who bought in March 2020 is up between 60%-150% as of today. With such high returns, almost everyone can feel like they saw it coming. But, I promise you that this is mostly hindsight bias.

How do I know? Because even I called (and traded) the bottom. In addition to my bullish post on March 23, 2020, I also sold all of the bonds in my retirement accounts and rebalanced into equities/REITs on the same day. I have trade confirms to prove it too:


Should I sell a course on market timing? How about a book on predicting market sentiment? No thanks.

Why not capitalize on my tactical skills? Because I know they don’t exist. Trading the bottom was 99% luck. Anyone who says differently is lying to themselves. Because, at the time, no one knew what would come next. On March 24, 2020, the market could’ve easily continued its downward trajectory. But…it didn’t.

Looking back now it’s tempting to see yourself as an investment guru, but the real guru would recognize the difference between their abilities and a rising tide lifting all boats.

Most People Got the Recovery Wrong
If you needed more proof that most people have no idea what comes next, consider how well they predicted the recovery.

On March 20, 2020 (a few days before the bottom), I asked Twitter how long it would take for the S&P 500 to make new all-time highs. The majority voted for a recovery time of greater than two years:


As we all know now, they were wrong. Very wrong. In fact, only 11% of my Twitter audience voted for the correct answer “<1 year”. Unfortunately, I wasn’t a part of this 11%.

Despite my bullishness at the time, I thought that the recovery would take at least a year (even in the best case scenario). But I wasn’t even close. As a surprise to almost everyone, within six months of the March 23 bottom we were hitting all-time highs once again:


The quickness of the recovery popularized the talking point “the stock market is not the economy.” And since then, this idea has come to dominate the financial conversation. Unfortunately, the speedy recovery also seems to have given fuel to the “everything is in a bubble” theory as well.

Regardless of what you believe, the past twelve months have illustrated that predicting the future is always much harder than it seems.

The Triumph of the Optimists
Of all the things that I will take with me from the last year, it’s that the optimists usually win. Yes, there are many things wrong with the world, but the arc of history continues to bend toward progress and a better future for humanity. It’s easy to forget this when things look the bleakest, but it’s true.

For example, a few months before the bottom in March 2020, scientists came up with the COVID-19 vaccine in a matter of days. It took them just a few days to create a vaccine that is now being distributed around the world and saving millions of lives.

How can you be pessimistic in a world like this? How can you be bearish when we have gone through far worse and bounced back time and time again? The Oracle of Omaha said it best:


In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.

So, what’s it gonna be? Do you want to focus on the negative and run at the first sign of panic? Or do you want to focus on the long-term trend and join the optimists?


Of course, no one knows when the next bottom will come or what will cause it, but I’m willing to bet that this future bottom will be higher than the last one. Happy investing and thank you for reading!"

MY COMMENT

YES......I strongly PREFER to be a RATIONAL OPTIMIST. AND......as an added bonus.....the data and statistics for the market gains and action over many many decades supports this view. The GENERAL MARKET DIRECTION.....is always positive.......that means good things going forward for long term investors.

 

HERE....is a little article for those that might be just starting out.....in the investing and saving world. In my opinion....the FIRST STEP....is to secure your retirement and your long term future. The ROTH IRA discussed below is a key component of any retirement strategy......along with the 401K MATCH for anyone that has access to one.

From tax-free income to extra savings credit, here are 5 ways a Roth IRA could be your lucky charm

https://www.usatoday.com/story/mone...roth-ira-could-be-your-lucky-charm/115569432/

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

From tax-free income to extra savings credit, here are 5 ways a Roth IRA could be your lucky charm
Charlene Rhinehart, CPA
The Motley Fool
"If you want to crush your retirement savings and unlock incredible rewards on your journey, the Roth IRA (individual retirement account) is one of the most captivating options available. This saver's secret has built-in benefits that you can enjoy before retirement, and it can be key to living the life of your dreams during your senior years.

Most people have no idea how versatile the Roth IRA is, so here's a snapshot of all the hidden treasures you can enjoy on your financial journey.

1. Gain access to tax-free income
Unlike a traditional IRA, 401(k), and other popular retirement savings vehicles, the Roth IRA allows you to contribute money you've already paid taxes on and earn an unlimited amount of tax-free income and growth for use during retirement.

Consider this: You consistently contribute the maximum amount to your Roth IRA and invest in assets that grow your portfolio to $1 million. After you reach 59 1/2 and have met the five-year rule, you can enjoy every cent of the $1 million in your account -- no need to share your earnings with the IRS. You can also invest in dividend-paying assets and earn a recurring stream of tax-free income in your Roth IRA.

2. Withdraw contributions whenever you want
One reason many investors fall in love with the Roth IRA is that you don't have to feel like all of your money is locked up forever. If you ever needed to use funds from your Roth IRA for an emergency situation, you can take out your contributions before you reach retirement age without penalty. In other words, you can always take out what you put in without sounding the IRS alarm.

Let's say you contributed the maximum of $6,000 to your retirement account in 2019, 2020, and 2021. Your $18,000 contribution grew to $30,000 because you invested in top-performing stocks. You are eligible to withdraw the $18,000 whenever you want. It's the growth in your account -- the additional $12,000 you earned -- that would trigger taxes and penalties if you don't follow the rules.

3. Give your child a head start
As long as you have earned income for the year and your income does not exceed thresholds, you can contribute to a Roth IRA. That means that your three-year-old daughter who earns money from acting and modeling can contribute to a Roth IRA account.

Here's the catch: The contribution to a Roth IRA account can not exceed earned income if it is less than the $6,000 contribution limit. In other words, if your daughter earns $3,000 for the year, the Roth IRA contribution is limited to $3,000. By contributing to a Roth IRA account at an early age, your child can take advantage of the power of compounding and become a millionaire before retirement.

4. Enjoy a special catch-up contribution if you're 50 or older
Don't fret if you didn't get to take advantage of the Roth IRA when you were younger. The IRS provides a $1,000 IRA catch-up contribution for savers age 50 or older. Instead of the $6,000 contribution limit, older savers can contribute up to $7,000 in 2021 to supercharge their retirement portfolio.

Remember, there are no age restrictions, so a 75-year-old who has earned income can still contribute to a Roth IRA. But if a person's income is too high, they may not be eligible to make a direct contribution to a Roth IRA.

5. Earn extra credit for saving
The IRS rewards low- and moderate-income individuals who save for retirement with a Saver's Credit up to $1,000 (up to $2,000 for a married couple). Since the Saver's Credit is nonrefundable, it will only reduce your total tax bill to zero, but this is perfect if you're worried about covering your tax tab at the end of the year.

The exact amount of the credit you will receive for contributing to your Roth IRA is based on your filing status and adjusted gross income (AGI). If you qualify for the Saver's Credit, this is one situation when contributing to your Roth IRA pays off in the short run as well as long-term.

Tap into your lucky charm
Let's not forget that you can even use the Roth IRA to fund your education or purchase a home. There's a Roth IRA exception that allows you to bypass the 10% withdrawal penalty if you use the funds to pay for qualified education expenses. You're also eligible to use up to $10,000 of earnings (lifetime limit) to build, rebuild, or buy a home without worrying about penalties or taxes.

The Roth IRA comes with exclusive benefits that make saving for retirement a bit more rewarding. If you qualify, consider maxing out your account and investing in high-quality assets so you can unlock the full benefits of the Roth IRA. "

MY COMMENT

This vehicle....the ROTH IRA along with a 401K account.....is the basic guts of any retirement plan for your and your families security. Even if you can not put in the full amount.....anything put into this sort of account is BETTER than nothing. It is a RARE thing for the government to allow someone to earn a lifetime of gains.....with ZERO capital gains tax and ZERO income tax on the accumulation. This sort of account is a GATEWAY to investing for most people.

 

I looked at my accounts earlier today.....and....in spite of the NASDAQ being negative I was showing a gain of.......0.01%. So basically dead flat. I have not looked since......at the account or the averages.

SO.....I just LOOKED. So far.....nice. the DOW and SP500 are looking good and the NASDAQ has come back nicely and is BARELY negative. The markets are having a HARD TIME.....bucking all the positive news that is out there right now for the longer term.

So.....come on......lets get those averages up there today and make some money. It is SPRING......the trees are getting their leaves....the grass is greening up.......the pandemic is being beaten back.......time to shake off the winter BLAHS and move on with LIFE.