Some of these newer investors fail to realize what yield rates do to the markets when they spike this fast. Sectors rotate and the big players shift into the ones that perform better, just how it is. Crowing about your daily gains is pointless if it turns against you, some are now deep in the red. It is always best to have cash on the side to average down if you want to hold the same companies. Hopefully none of them are in with MARGIN as that can be a double edged sword. I haven't noticed anyone talking about their daily gains lately so that explains a lot. Mr. Market loves to eat your lunch and leave you holding the bag.
He is busy having brunch with his regulator friend discussing the reddit bunch, crypto and market manipulation process. You tried EMMETT, not much you can do when the trend is heading down, unless you have cash to buy the dips or rotate into the performing sectors.
Not too bad.....Emmett. You came in at the last minute and fought a historic fight through the day to hold the losses to a MINIMUM. As to my account.....very moderate RED today. And of course.....a loss to the SP500 by .30%. The.........WAFFLE HOUSE.......market continues. It will be nice to get into the 1st quarter earnings and see if we can kick the market in the pants......one direction or the other. The coming announcement of the Infrastructure (Great Society 2.0) bill and ALL the tax increases is certainly a big drag on the markets this week. The MEDIA......yes as usual.....continues to FLOG the interest rate dead horse. Whey they think that ten year treasury yields have anything to do.....in the slightest......with big cap tech companies or growth stocks is beyond me. I dont personally.....see any connection at all.........other than amateur investors blindly following the media line.
HERE is one of the stories of the day.....real estate of course. Critics slam the Fed as home prices rise at a historic rate https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/30/federal-reserve-under-fire-as-home-prices-soar.html BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points Home prices nationally in January were up 11.2% year over year, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index. That is the largest annual gain in nearly 15 years. As of last week the Federal Reserve held $2.2 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities. “They’ve continued on autopilot. I don’t think there’s been any discussion within the Fed,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. Home price gains are accelerating at an alarming pace, fueled by Covid pandemic-related inflation, which some claim is not getting enough attention from the Federal Reserve. Home prices nationally in January rose 11.2% year over year, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index. That is the largest annual gain in nearly 15 years. As a comparison, annual price gains were 10.4% in December, 9.5% in November, 8.4% in October, 7% in September, 5.8% in August and 4.8% last July. In January 2020, the annual gain was just 3.9%, and the monthly moves were in small fractions, not whole percentage points. “In more than 30 years of S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller data, January’s year-over-year change is comfortably in the top decile. That strength is reflected across all 20 cities,” noted Craig Lazzara, managing director and global head of index investment strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “January’s price gains in every city are above that city’s median level, and rank in the top quartile of all reports in 18 cities.” The main reason home prices are now rising so quickly is that strong demand butting up against record low supply. Bidding wars for homes are now the rule, not the exception. But mortgage rates are also playing a key role, one engineered by the Federal Reserve. While rates are rising slightly now, they are still near historic lows, having set more than a dozen new lows last year. Mortgage rates loosely follow the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which has fallen dramatically during the pandemic. Mortgage rates are also influenced by the purchases and yields of agency mortgage-backed securities, or MBS. These purchases provide the mortgage market with liquidity. The Federal Reserve had been tapering its purchases of MBS in order to normalize the market after the last recession, but it turned that taper around last March with the onset of the pandemic. It now owns more than a third of the MBS market. At the start of 2019, the Fed held $1.6 trillion in agency MBS. It tapered that down to $1.37 trillion by mid-March of 2020. Then, when the economy and housing market were suddenly in Covid free fall, the central bank began buying more again. As of last week, the Fed held $2.2 trillion of agency MBS. “They’ve continued on autopilot. I don’t think there’s been any discussion within the Fed. The Fed is just afraid to change because they don’t want it to be seen as a form of taking their foot off the pedal,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. The housing market has, in turn, blasted off. The stay-at-home culture of the pandemic hit consumers literally where they live, and demand for housing has yet to ease up. Low mortgage rates only added fuel to the fire. “Again, why is the Fed still buying MBS? As home price changes are not included in either CPI or PCE, the question is when and how this filters into imputed rent, but inflation is real for those looking to buy a home,” said Boockvar. “The Fed again is responsible for pricing out first-time buyers.” A Fed spokesman declined to comment. But what if the Fed tapered its purchases again, or stopped buying MBS altogether? “Is there some sort of liquidity breakdown or crisis of confidence that sends a shockwave throughout financial markets? We’ve seen that happen before and it results in rates moving lower for organic reasons, but without the benefit of simultaneous strength in financial markets,” said Matthew Graham, chief operating officer at Mortgage News Daily. “With or without the Fed, rates were low because of the pandemic. Mortgage rates are exactly as far away from 10-year Treasury yields as they have been for the past decade (and they never broke below that historical range in the past year). Rates are rising due to light at the end of the tunnel,” Graham said. The best case for cold water on home prices, then, is simply more supply on the market and less demand. Sellers have been very slow to act this spring, but buyers are starting to pull back, some priced out of the homes they would like to purchase. “Affordability crunch resulting from strong home price growth and higher mortgage rates will discourage some potential home buyers from entering the market and take some wind out of its sails, slowing the home price growth rate by about a half by the end of 2021,” said Selma Hepp, deputy chief economist at CoreLogic. The lack of homes for sale remains the biggest concern, she added. “Potential sellers may be discouraged by their inability to find a new home and subsequently choose to not list their own home – leading to a vicious cycle of declining for-sale homes,” Hepp said. MY COMMENT At least in my area.....this hot market has been going on for a long time. At least 2 years......although now is......maximum crazy.....so far. Confirmation that any family lifetime financial plan needs to include home ownership as one of the three or four legs. A definate way to diversify against too much emphasis on stocks and funds. BEING a.......hunter gatherer investor.....I will make money or add to net worth any way the markets want to give it to me. While the stock markets have been flat for the past 6 weeks......I have been racking up BIG GAINS in net worth based on home appreciation. Since June of 2019....that appreciation has added $300,000 to my net worth......on paper.
Personally as someone focusing many years down the road I love times like this. So many buying opportunities. I really could care less if my portfolio is down 5% over the last few weeks or whatever. I just keep buying at better prices. I actually feel better when things are stagnant to slightly down as deals abound in great companies and I don't have that nagging feeling of missing out when things are going great. When you invest in great companies with great long term outlooks it's easy to risk "holding the bag" (such a poor term for real investors). I equate a lot of investing to managing a sports franchise, it's just how I'm wired. Stock price is equivalent to a players value. Never judge a baseball player by a few games or even a month or two of stats. I'll give you guys a great tip if you are in fantasy sports leagues. Try to never watch sportscenter type highlight shows. Gives you a false sense of value on a player, especially in a game based on large data sets such as baseball and it's 162 game seasons. Imagine selling Mike Trout right after his IPO (Rookie Call-up) and poor rookie season. The teams that invested in Trout or player A or whomever invested because of that players inherent skillset and projections not a stupid short term outlook based on something like an upcoming schedule of games against bad pitchers or whatever short term data set you want to use. Invest in great companies and players over the long term and it's much easier to win. Of course with all that said you need to know when to get rid of a loser, however investing in the big cap American dominant companies makes it easy, mix in a few young talented up and comers and you have the recipe for success!
For the moment the MEDIA has pulled back on the inflation fear mongering....choosing to focus on the hissy fit being thrown by bond traders determined to drive the ten year yield up to 2%. BUT.....for those that miss the old inflation talk.....here is yet ANOTHER contrary view. PIMCO warns of an 'inflation head fake' in 2021 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-warns-inflation-head-fake-150502915.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Inflation expectations have increased this year as the U.S. economy has begun to recover from the coronavirus pandemic and as investors have bet that the flood of new Treasury debt will erode the value of the dollar. The Treasury Department ramped up issuance last year to $3.6 trillion to fund the U.S. government's pandemic recovery efforts. ING expects roughly $4 trillion to be issued this year, not counting inflation spending President Joe Biden is scheduled to announce on Wednesday. But California-based Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO) argues that although inflation will rise modestly this year, challenges reaching full employment in the labor market will keep inflation in check. The market's current expectations of inflation - reflected in breakeven inflation rates and the prices of Treasury Inflation Protected Securities - therefore look overblown, and could ultimately lead to higher volatility. "It is quite likely in our forecasts that the coming near-term rise in inflation won't be sustained," wrote PIMCO's global economic advisor Joachim Fels and its chief investment officer for global fixed income, Andrew Balls. "But it also seems quite likely that financial markets will continue to remain focused on upside inflation risks in the near term and that volatility will continue to be elevated." PIMCO expects core inflation to remain below central banks' targets in all major economies this year and next. The Federal Reserve's target is 2%. The potential for this "inflation head fake," means PIMCO currently favors bets on a steepening yield curve. Even if expectations of rising inflation are misguided, those bets, along with an improving economic outlook mean that longer-dated yields are likely to rise. PIMCO now estimates that the U.S. economy will grow by more than 7% in 2021, the fastest pace since 1984, and that world GDP will rise 6%, up from their January estimate of 5%. With Fed interest-rate policy anchored near zero, a rise at the long end would steepen the curve. PIMCO sees steeper government yield curves in the United States, as well as Britain, Europe and Japan. The combination of strong growth globally and the Fed's commitment to loose monetary policy should therefore, PIMCO argues, weaken the dollar. Expectations of strong growth support the current bullish run in the equities market, and the investment manager remains overweight U.S. equities. Commodity prices, which move with inflation, may rise modestly, but those gains will be capped. " MY COMMENT YES....the old.......SELF FULFILLING PROPHESY. BUT.....the lack of wage increases and wage inflation will help to keep things down.
My take on the BIG CAP....lingering waffle.......I dont buy the inflation argument or the ten year yield argument. I have lived and invested though much worse inflation and rising yields with NO impact on growth stocks. I dont see any relationship at all to any of these fears and the BIG cap weakness and lingering range-bound market. My view.....we are simply seeing an age old........and.....traditional situation where prices and investor enthusiasm got ahead of the fundamentals. So now we are in the middle of the .....REALITY.......of these stocks lingering in a period of CONSOLIDATION......till the fundamentals catch up and the next leg up begins. As I have said before......I see this lasting till 1st quarter earnings at the earliest........3rd quarter earnings at the latest. At this point we simply need....."Fundamentals".......clarity. I have no problem letting my money sit in those types of holdings till the next move. Especially since NO ONE will be able to call the start of that next move up.....and......I want to catch EVERY drop of it when it happens. I would rather be invested than siting and earning next to NOTHING on short term money. I have ZERO interest in speculating/trading/gambling with my long term money over the short term. So.....I will continue to sit.....lingering within 3-5% of my all time portfolio high. Not a bad place to be. I will continue to reinvest any and all dividends and gain some extra shares in the process. As a 45+ year......LONG TERM INVESTOR.....this is exactly what I CHOOSE to do.
Wow! The second time Emmett sits at the helm and my portfolio is growing almost as high as Septic1 ignoring members list! At this rate W you should seriously consider a promotion... or at least create a shill account and double like his posts... And what kind of trouble did W get himself into today that he’s out the entire day!!
LOL.....I was out the entire day screwing around. My portfolio does not need me.......it just does its own thing.
I'm looking forward to the day you fellers can start crowing again with your daily gains. I took a few long positions myself, however mine were strategically placed by timing the market due to the recent spike in yields. While you are playing catch-up I'm already enjoying my gains. Being a value investor I refuse to pay retail, I can hold some cash and dive in at wholesale prices. In my World we call it swimming with the sharks, easy to do just follow the wave. NASDAQ currently has some great bargains in the wholesale section.
I believe you when you say you've had some gains although a few postings of examples would be nice to see. However I think your gains are muted somewhat by what you keep in cash. If you have $10000 in cash and you spend $5000 and gain $2500, yes that investment gained 50% which is great. However, you have really only gained 25% if you look at your portfolio as a whole. If a long termer in whatever invests the $10,000 and earns 25% he's done just as well as you have. I also have to assume you've made at least some trades that went south on you. I can't believe you've only had gains with no losses at all. If a person's goal is to gain x% and they achieve that goal, it hardly matters how they did it, long term like WXYZ or shorter term like yourself. WXYZ is achieving his goals, ZUKODANY is achieving his, and I am achieving mine. Lastly, a question for you: how many hours in a week do you trade, research for intended trading, etc? I suspect you spend more hours than I do, hours I do not have to spare in my day. I'm way too busy working, getting my gardens ready, etc.
you believe him? Why? Because he knows how to operate a phone and gets free WiFi from Wendy’s? I personally believe that he’s a 50 yo fat fkc that failed miserably in life and has daddy issues... so? Am I gonna go to a random post on the interweb and call him out on it? Of course not... But he comes to a thread called THE LONG TERM INVESTOR and constantly talks about EVERYTHING that has to do with short term trading and gambling.... I mean I know that some people have reading comprehension problems but ... come on!
And as I write this the markets are solid green!!! Shhhh I better not write about it cause we have the russkie1 patrol squad trolling this thread bitching about members profit reporting
He spends a lot of time in the forums overall and says the occasional intelligent thing (just not this one and not often). While he is mostly full of hot air he likely has had a modicum of success. I mostly ignore his content but I occasionally peek and see if he is having a rare moment of intelligence and respect.
I invest myself young friends. Point being, while some of the ones are in the red playing catch-up, Im already in the green. Some you fellers that have only been in the market a couple of years have a lot to learn. Hopefully ALL OF US can show profits, obviously some perform better than others. I'm in a few from yesterday, after waiting and watching they finally hit my target. I can now play the long game and write weekly calls "STO" for extra income. I welcome the funny insults and gifs to make my doubters feel proud. Some hind behind a keyboard and feel like rambo, I give you effort and enjoy the giggles. Knowing in the back of my mind if we were face to face you would most certainly choose your words a lot wiser. CAPITAL GAIN is the purpose, hopefully everyone can achieve that goal. Happy investing/trading my friends. Peace.
I consider this REALLY good news. We need to partner with INDIA on everything that is currently going to China. Just as big of a market for our products and a much more secure trading partner and ALLY. Exclusive: A billion for every chip-maker who 'makes in India,' sources say https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-who-makes-in-india-sources-say-idUSKBN2BN12J (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "India is offering more than $1 billion in cash to each semiconductor company that sets up manufacturing units in the country as it seeks to build on its smartphone assembly industry and strengthen its electronics supply chain, two officials said. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ‘Make in India’ drive has helped to turn India into the world’s second-biggest mobile manufacturer after China. New Delhi believes it is time for chip companies to set up in the country. “The government will give cash incentives of more than $1 billion to each company which will set up chip fabrication units,” a senior government official told Reuters, declining to be named as he was not authorised to speak with media. “We’re assuring them that the government will be a buyer and there will also be mandates in the private market (for companies to buy locally made chips).” How to disburse the cash incentives has yet to be decided and the government has asked the industry for feedback, said a second government source, who also declined to be identified. Governments across the world are subsidising the construction of semiconductor plants as chip shortages hobble the auto and electronics industries and highlight the world’s dependence on Taiwan for supplies. India also wants to establish reliable suppliers for its electronics and telecom industry to cut dependence on China following border skirmishes last year. Chips made locally will be designated as “trusted sources” and can be used in products ranging from CCTV cameras to 5G equipment, the first source said." MY COMMENT NO DOUBT.......TESLA will soon be doing manufacturing in India. This country is a SUPREME option for any company currently operating in China. Close to the China market for distribution and selling of products. Just as big of a population for companies to develop as a market. A long time ALLY against China.
AND.....as usual......the ACTUAL news that will drive the economy and by proxy business going forward over the next 4-24 months. US Companies Add Most Jobs Since September, ADP Data Show https://www.newsmax.com/finance/headline/ecotop-exe-frx-gen/2021/03/31/id/1015838/ (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "U.S. private employers in March added the most jobs in six months, signaling that a pickup in Covid-19 vaccinations and business reopenings are encouraging hiring. Company payrolls increased by 517,000 during the month and February was revised up to a 176,000 gain, according to ADP Research Institute data released Wednesday. The median projection in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for an increase of 550,000. A big pickup in hiring within leisure and hospitality businesses, along with strong gains in other industries, indicate a broader improvement in the labor market that’s been slow to bounce back from the pandemic. Small and medium-size businesses showed stronger employment growth this month than large companies. “Job growth in the service sector significantly outpaced its recent monthly average,” led by the leisure and hospitality industry, Nela Richardson, ADP’s chief economist, said in a statement. “This sector has the most opportunity to improve as the economy continues to gradually reopen and the vaccine is made more widely available.” States have been easing business restrictions -- or have lifted them altogether -- and the rate of vaccinations rose above two million per day in March, which should allow for further recovery in the coming months. President Joe Biden signed a $1.9 trillion relief bill earlier this month that includes funding for vaccines, small businesses and direct payments to households. The aid is expected to help stimulate spending and spur consumer and business confidence, which should help increase hiring. The ADP report comes ahead of Friday’s monthly jobs report, which is forecast to show a 650,000 gain in March payrolls, with some economists projecting an increase of 1 million or more. ADP data showed a 437,000 increase in services employment and an 80,000 rise at goods producers. Digging Deeper Smaller companies, with less than 50 employees, added 174,000 positions, while medium-size businesses took on 188,000 employees Leisure and hospitality industry payrolls climbed by 169,000 in March, followed by a 92,000 in trade, transportation and utilities, and an 83,000 increase at business services Among goods producers, manufacturing employment rose 49,000 and construction jobs increased 32,000 ADP’s payroll data represent firms employing nearly 26 million workers in the U.S." MY COMMENT Step by step.....we move forward from the INSANITY of the voluntary destruction of the entire private economy for the first time EVER in history. the re-opening is going to happen.....even if we have to drag a number of states along kicking and screaming. I do note in the above that......the number was ACTUALLY BELOW.....what was projected. BUT....that is the economists.....theoretical dumbo-jumbo......so who cares. It is STILL a SOLID positive number.
