The Long Term Investor

HERE is the news of the day. Totally expected.....sooner or later.....with the re-opening. But....even if expected....good news is always better than bad.

March jobs report: Payrolls rise by 916,000, unemployment rate drops to 6.0%

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/marc...pandemic-unemployment-payrolls-181729856.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"The U.S. economy brought back more jobs than expected in March, presaging even faster employment growth in the coming months as more Americans become vaccinated and jobs across industries return.

The Department of Labor released its March employment report Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here were the main metrics in the report, compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:

• Change in non-farm payrolls: +916,000 vs. +660,000 expected and a revised +468,000 in February
• Unemployment rate: 6.0% vs. 6.0% expected and 6.2% in February
• Average hourly earnings, month-over-month: -0.1% vs. +0.1% expected and a revised +0.3% in February
• Average hourly earnings, year-over-year: 4.2% vs. +4.5% expected and a revised +5.2% in February

At 916,000, payrolls last month grew by the most since August. Payrolls for both January and February were also revised higher: January's payroll change was upwardly revised to 233,000 from the 166,000 previously reported, and February's job growth totaled 468,000, up from the 379,000 previously reported.

"It wasn't just the March jobs number that impressed, as January and February saw big revisions higher as well," Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist for LPL Financial, said in an email Friday morning. "This is about as clear as it gets, the reopening is happening faster than nearly anyone expected."

Growth in service sector employment again comprised the biggest contributor to the monthly payrolls increase. Some of the most badly beaten down areas of the service economy made strides in recovering lost jobs in March, reflecting easing social distancing restrictions and increased capacity limits at bars, restaurants and other establishments. Leisure and hospitality payrolls rose by 280,000 in March after an upwardly revised gain of 384,000 in February. However, these industries remain more than 3 million payrolls short of their pre-pandemic levels, representing the hardest-hit industry category tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Still, some other areas also contributed notably to the March payroll gain. Within the private service sector, education and health services positions rose by 101,000 to nearly double their February gain, and transportation and warehousing jobs rose by almost 50,000. Retail trade jobs rose by 22,500 for a third straight monthly gain, and professional and business service jobs also posted a third consecutive monthly increase, with payrolls climbing by 66,000.

The private goods-producing sector also added back jobs on net in March after shedding payrolls in February as inclement weather impacted hiring. Construction jobs rose by 110,000 after declining by 56,000 a month earlier. The gain of 53,000 manufacturing payrolls in March nearly tripled these industries' February job gains.

And in the public sector, government jobs jumped by 136,000 in March, "reflecting the continued resumption of in-person learning and other school-related activities in many parts of the country," the BLS said in its report Friday.

Overall, the U.S. economy remained about 8.4 million jobs short of its February 2020 levels as of March.

Average hourly earnings growth unexpectedly turned negative in March over last month and decelerated over last year, partly reflecting the reentry of lower-wage services workers back into the labor force. The unemployment rate fell to a pandemic-era low of 6.0%, ticking down by 0.2 percentage points from February's levels.

That jobless rate, however, still remained well above the 50-year low of 3.5% the U.S. economy saw in February last year, underscoring the distance still left for the economy to make up. In their latest projections, members of the Federal Open Market Committee suggested the U.S. labor market would return to a 3.5% jobless rate by the end of 2023.

Heading into Friday's report, the estimates for March payroll growth spanned a wide range. Prognosticators have had to predict the extent of the rebound after February's harsh weather, and quantify the pick-up in hiring due to easing social distancing restrictions, increasing vaccinations and renewed aid from Congress's latest stimulus package.

Still, the vast majority of economists expected that rehiring accelerated last month. High frequency data including new weekly jobless claims have reflected a clear downward trend in the number of those newly unemployed. And earlier this week, ADP's March private payrolls report showed the most jobs added back since September, and the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index pointed to rising employment trends in the goods-producing sector. "

MY COMMENT

Yes....totally expected....sooner or later. AND.....wages actually.....went down. This wage DECREASE....is a big indicator of........guess what......no inflation. YES......we have no inflation (above what is desirable and normal).

This is yet another factor that should contribute to a good week for investors next week. The ONLY negative......the unemployment rate one year ago was........3.5%......now it is at 6%. My view on the odds of getting back to 3.5%.....ZERO.

AND.....someday......way over the rainbow.....the West coast and the CRAZY lock-down states on the East coast and in the Midwest......will have to re-open. At that point we will have......"some".....semblance of a normal economy.

 

HERE.....is some more indication that next week has the potential to be a good one. BUT....keep in mind that futures and data three days before an open is extremely......tentative.

Dow Jones Futures Rise On Blowout Jobs Report, Tesla Deliveries; Google, Microsoft Flash Buy Signals As Nasdaq Joins Market Rally

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/c546a634-9f37-34e1-8833-1c1a8b31178c/dow-jones-futures-rise-on.html

"Dow Jones futures rose Friday morning, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures, on a strong March jobs report and record Tesla (TSLA) deliveries for the first quarter. Friday's jobs report comes with the stock market closed for Good Friday, though Dow Jones futures and Treasury yields are active.

The stock market rally showed strong action last week, with the S&P 500 hitting a new high and the Nasdaq moving back to some key areas.

Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL) iPhone supplier Qorvo (QRVO) and Diamondback Energy (FANG) all flashed new buy points Thursday. Google stock and Microsoft reflect bullish action among tech titans. Qorvo stock is the latest chip player to blast out. Diamondback stock is one of many oil plays looking strong as crude oil prices trend higher.

Breakouts are among the many reasons to be more optimistic about the stock market rally. The S&P 500 topped 4,000 for the first time while the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 reclaimed their 50-day lines. The Nasdaq still has one last test before investors can feel that the split market is turning into a broad market rally.

Google stock and Microsoft are on IBD Leaderboard. Google and FANG stock are on SwingTrader. MSFT stock is on IBD Long-Term Leaders. Tesla stock is on the IBD 50. Google and Qorvo stock are on the IBD Big Cap 20.

Jobs Report
The Labor Department's jobs report showed a nonfarm payrolls gain of 916,000. Economists expected to see nonfarm payrolls up 625,000 for the month, revving higher as easing coronavirus restrictions and multiple stimulus packages spur a hiring boom that's expected to continue for several months.

Job gains for January and February were revised up by a combined 156,000. February's initially reported 379,000 gain was revised to 468,000.

The jobless rate fell to 6% from 6.2%, in line with estimates.

Tesla Deliveries
Tesla reported first-quarter deliveries of 184,000, a new record. Analysts expected Tesla deliveries of 168,000 in the first quarter.

Tesla produced 180,338 vehicles in Q1, all Model 3 or Model Y vehicles. Tesla deliveries were almost entirely Model 3 and Model Y vehicles, selling 2,020 Model S sedans and Model X SUVs.

Tesla Model Y sales launched in China in January. Model Y sales reportedly were strong in the U.S.

However, competition is building for the newest Tesla model. Ford (F) sold 6,614 Mach-E crossovers in the U.S. last quarter, with nearly all of that in February and March. Volkswagen (VWAGY) began selling its much-cheaper ID.4 crossover in the U.S. in late March.

The VW ID.4 also began deliveries in China late last month. The Ford Mach-E has begun China production.

The Biden infrastructure plan calls for expanded EV credits and a big expansion of charging stations. Tesla, which has hit the cap on federal tax credits, could be a big winner from that. But it could be months for such credits to be approved and go into effect.

Tesla stock jumped 7% last week to 661.75. But on Thursday, shares dipped 0.9%, sinking back below the 21-day exponential moving average.

Will blowout Tesla deliveries trigger a TSLA stock revival?

Meanwhile, Tesla's China rivals Nio (NIO) and Xpeng (XPEV) reported strong March deliveries on Thursday. Li Auto (LI) on Friday reported March deliveries of 4,900 vehicles, up 239%, with Q1 deliveries up 333% to 12,579.

Nio stock rose 1.7% on Thursday while Xpeng advanced 1.2% and Li Auto 1%, all closing near session lows.

Dow Jones Futures
Dow Jones futures popped 0.6% vs. fair value, off their initial highs S&P 500 futures climbed 0.6% and Nasdaq 100 futures 0.5%.


That suggests that the Dow and S&P 500 would open at record highs Monday, while the Nasdaq could challenge its March highs. The Nasdaq 100 would clearly move above those levels.

The 10-year Treasury yield rose modestly to 1.71% after the jobs report. Trading will likely be thin on Good Friday, so the reaction in Treasury yields may be more volatile than usual for employment figures.

Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn't necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.

Coronavirus News
Coronavirus cases worldwide reached 130.33 million. Covid-19 deaths topped 2.84 million.

Coronavirus cases in the U.S. have hit 31.24 million, with deaths above 566,000.

Stock Market Rally Last Week
The stock market rally improved significantly, with Russell 2000 and Nasdaq stepping up and the S&P 500 clearing 4,000 for the first time.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.25% in last week's stock market trading, holding near record highs. The S&P 500 index climbed 1.1% to a new high. The Nasdaq composite popped 2.6%. The Russell 2000 advanced 1.5%.

The 10-year Treasury yield hit a pandemic high of 1.77% during the week. But on Thursday the 10-year yield fell several basis points to about 1.68%, despite the ISM manufacturing index hitting a 37-year high. Rising Treasury yields have pressured the Nasdaq and growth stocks in recent weeks.

Among the best ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) rose 1.9% last week, while the Innovator IBD Breakout Opportunities ETF (BOUT) edged up 0.1%. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) rallied 3.3%, with Microsoft stock the No. 1 component. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) jumped 4.7%, with Qorvo stock and many others fueling strong gains.

SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) climbed 1.25% and Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF (PAVE) gained 1.1%. U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS) ascended 1.4%.

Reflecting more-speculative story stocks, ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) jumped 6% and ARK Genomics ETF (ARKG) 5.8%. But both pared Thursday's gains to close below their 21-day lines. Tesla stock is the top holding across ARK Invest's ETFs..

Qorvo Breaks Out
Qorvo stock rose 5.6% to 192.90 on Thursday, clearing a 185.96 handle buy point and hitting a new high. The buy zone runs to 195.15. The 5G and Apple iPhone play is one of several chip stocks to break out in recent days.

Apple stock rose 1.5% last week, finding support just above its 200-day line and reclaiming its 21-day. But it's still far below its 50-day line.

Microsoft Stock
Microsoft stock rallied 2.8% on Thursday to 242.35, rebounding bullishly from its 21-day and 10-week lines and finally closing above 240. Investors could buy MSFT stock here. The Dow Jones tech titan has a flat base with a 246.23 buy point.

Google Stock Flashes Buy Signals
Google stock rallied 3.3% to 2,129.78 on Thursday, capping a 5.2% weekly gain. The internet giant rebounded from its 10-week line and retook its 21-day line before clearing a downtrend and a three-weeks-tight entry around 2,114. Thursday also marked a record high for GOOGL stock. So there are multiple buying opportunities already.

Alphabet stock has an official flat-base buy point of 2,145.24, according to MarketSmith analysis.

Alphabet was this week's New America feature.

Diamondback Stock Rebounds Bullishly
Diamondback stock leapt 10.5% to 81.22 on Thursday, making it the day's best S&P 500 performer. The bullish bounce from the 10-week line also reclaimed the 21-day line and broke a downtrend. That offered multiple buy signals. FANG stock ended the week 12% above its 10-week line, so it's getting extended. However, with the 10-week line rising to start next week, FANG stock may look better.

FANG stock was Thursday's IBD Stock Of The Day.

Market Rally Analysis
The stock market rally had an encouraging week. The S&P 500 is at a new high, reflecting the broadening market rally. The Dow Jones is hovering at record levels. The Russell 2000 is back above its 50-day and 21-day moving averages after looking weak in the prior couple of weeks.

The Nasdaq rebounded above its 21-day on Wednesday in what was arguably a follow-through day. On Thursday, the tech-heavy index moved above its 50-day line. The final test is moving above its short-term March highs. The big-cap Nasdaq 100, with Apple, Google and Microsoft major weights, reclaimed its 50-day line and its March peak.

After a few weeks of tough trading, a number of stocks are breaking out and are holding up. The chip sector has come to the fore while tech titans such as Microsoft and Google are stepping up. Meanwhile, a number of oil names are looking strong. A few more steel names broke out last week, despite some declines Thursday. The broader housing sector, from builders to home improvement to home furnishing plays, is healthy. Travel stocks are consolidating after a healthy run-up.

One market segment remains sluggish: highly valued growth, including Tesla stock. While several rebounded for the week, most are well below their 50-day lines and usually their 21-day lines. They may need an extended period of rest, while some may not recover for years, if ever. The stock market looks forward, so don't look back to old winners. Wait for them to form bullish bases and prove themselves all over again.

Game Plan
Investors should have stepped up exposure somewhat in the past week. The major indexes are looking healthier while breakouts are working. Don't feel the need to rush in heavily. Let the market draw you in.


Have some diversity in the leading stocks that you own or watch. Focus on the very best stocks, but make sure you have names from a variety of groups. That will alert you to bullish moves in specific groups or sectors while limiting your risk of a group-specific sell-off. In others, don't buy every chip stock that's breaking out.


Always have an exit strategy. With the stock market rally at a key juncture and still prone to big swings, you have to have a plan for exiting a stock."

MY COMMENT

THE LAST.....first. The comment above about an "exit strategy"...is talking about selling an individual stock.......NOT....exiting the markets. LOTS of very good news in this little article. Some of the analysis is.......TECHNICAL.....which i do not follow or use since I consider it........UNSUPPORTED VOODOO......but if people that do use it are encouraged than......good for the markets going forward.

PLUS......in addition to all the good news piling up......we will soon be seeing the 1st quarter numbers. It will be an interesting month or two for long term investors......the potential and probabilities......are very favorable.

 

AND.....last but not least.....for Tesla stock owners......like myself.......here is the good news:

Tesla reports 180,338 vehicles produced, 184,800 delivered in first quarter of 2021

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/02/tesla-tsla-q1-2021-vehicle-production-and-delivery-numbers.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Key Points

• Tesla just reported first-quarter vehicle production and delivery numbers for 2021. In total, it delivered 184,800 vehicles and produced 180,338 cars.
• All of the electric vehicles it produced were Model 3 sedans and Model Y crossover SUVs, though it also delivered 2,020 Model S sedans and Model X SUVs.

Tesla just reported first-quarter vehicle production and delivery numbers for 2021. In total, it delivered 184,800 vehicles and produced 180,338 cars.

Analysts were expecting Tesla to deliver around 168,000 vehicles during this period, according to estimates compiled by FactSet as of April 1. Estimates ranged from 145,000 to 188,000 deliveries.

All of the electric vehicles it produced were Model 3 sedans and Model Y crossover SUVs during the quarter, and it didn’t produce any of its more expensive Model S sedans and Model X SUVs.

It delivered 2,020 Model S and Model X vehicles from inventory, however representing just 1% of its total deliveries. In a statement, Tesla wrote that with “new equipment installed and tested in Q1” the company is now “in the early stages of ramping production” for updated versions of the S and X.

Tesla’s operations during the quarter ending March 31, 2021, were impacted by a fire at its Fremont, California factory, temporary closures that CEO Elon Musk attributed to parts shortages, a broader chip shortage in the industry, port capacity issues and the ongoing pandemic.

Tesla’s latest delivery numbers represented more than a 100% increase from the same period last year when the company first began deliveries and volume production of Model Y. However, Tesla Q1 deliveries increased by just over 2% from the quarter ending 2020 when Tesla delivered 180,570 vehicles.

Deliveries are the closest approximation to sales numbers reported by Tesla.

During the company’s most recent earnings call, CFO Zachary Kirkhorn said that in 2021: “Specifically for Q1, our volumes will have the benefit of early Model Y ramp in Shanghai. However, S and X production will be low due to the transition to the newly re-architected products.”

At an annual shareholder meeting in 2020, CEO Elon Musk told shareholders he expected deliveries to hit an implied range between 477,750 and 514,500 cars for the year. Tesla hit the mid-range of that window, delivering 499,550 cars for the year, its best sales volume to date.

Musk and Kirkhorn declined to give specific guidance for 2021 deliveries during that call but said they would offer more clarity during the second quarter. Kirkhorn said on the call: “We continue to expect a long-term volume CAGR of 50%, of which we may materially exceed this in 2021.” This goal was reiterated by Tesla’s then-President of Automotive Jerome Guillen on the same call. (Guillen has moved into the role of President of Heavy Trucking since then.)

Fans and critics will both be watching to see whether new battery electric vehicles hitting the market will begin to erode Tesla’s lead in the category, or take away more from sales of internal combustion engine and hybrid vehicles. Startups and big automakers alike are introducing more EV models than ever before.

On March 29, Jeffries reduced its price target for Tesla from $775 to $700, with analyst Philippe Houchois writing in a note:

“Legacy-free 30-50% net growth and 2-digit margin potential still support high multiples but Tesla is no longer unique as an EV play with preferred access to capital. Some of the edge started to erode, but only slowly and Tesla still leads on multiple fronts, from software to design-to-manufacture, speed of execution and direct selling.”"

MY COMMENT

Should be a very good thing for Tesla stockholders. The company needed a KICK in the BUTT....lately. This should do the trick....at least for a short time. As with EVERYTHING.....right now.....the next earnings data will be a big factor in where we see the stock over the near term.

For long term investors.....that are not playing the daily GUESSING GAME with the markets.......and....gambling with their money as a result.....we are in for a very interesting spring. The markets seem to be lining up VERY NICELY from here till May........and.......with all that is going to happen over the rest of the year......we might see a barn-burner of a year. It could very well be the THIRD.....double-digit.....gain year in a row......for the SP500. Something that does not happen very often.

I CONTINUE to say.......the next 4-24 months are looking very strong for long term holders of QUALITY AMERICAN companies. Of course.....within that time span we will have the usual corrections and times that tend to drive.......unfocused...... investors crazy and out of the markets.

BY the end of 2021......many people that own a home and are REALISTIC and FOCUSED and LONG TERM stock investors......WILL.....yes I believe the probabilities are that people in general......"WILL"....see a significant increase in their NET WORTH.

A continued GENERALLY RISING market will continue.......THE DELUSION....among.......YOUNG AND INEXPERIENCED..... day-traders that they really know what they are doing. BUT....as usual....it will simply be a rising tide lifting all boats........and a....... monkey with a dart board......type of market for most of the......NEW, YOUNG, and CRAZY........ short term speculators.

I of course....EXEMPT.....the older more experienced TRADERS.......from the above comment. They at least have the benefit of experience and trading in various types of market environments.

 

Speaking of the......YOUNG, NEW, EGO-DRIVEN.......traders that are out there right now in record numbers.

The one thing that EVERY type of investor shares.....long term.....short term.....traders.....is the experience of being HUMBLED by the markets. Over time any type of investor gets a lot of that BIG EGO......BEAT OUT OF THEM...........sometimes SEVERELY...... by the markets. That is called EXPERIENCE.

That is NORMAL and just part of the process of becoming an investor.......of any type.

 

StockJock-e........our fearless Brew Master.....you are so right.

It seems like EVERYONE gets started investing during some BOOM. Whether it is the mid 1980's, or the dot com era of the 1990's, or later in the early 2000's, or after the 2008/2009 collapse. Those are the EASY TIMES......when the new investors think they are investing gods.

BUT......sooner or later a very severe correction happens or worse.....a bear market.....and many get SHAKEN OUT of the markets. SOME.....never invest again.

It takes a pretty GUTSY new investor to start investing during a NASTY BEAR MARKET....when all are panicking. I dont recall anyone I know doing this....but I am sure there are some.

It was kind of different when I started....it was the mid 1970's. The start of a nasty time in general for the markets and the economy. It was hard to feel like a god.....because.....it was the era of the old style big brokerages.....with round lot trades and commissions and having to place an order through a broker. You were looked down on as a........PEON. Small investors were.....DIRT.

I doubt that I would have started investing at a young age....if I did not have my mom as a long term investor.........role model.

 

"The only other assets that I own are real estate and collectibles- which, alongside precious metals, are the ONLY real strong assets that do NOT rely heavily on tech growth."

You are so right Zukodany with the above statement. My art and collectables and metals......do not....rely on tech. They are......."stuff". Although the internet does impact them. eBay has had a HUGE impact on the collectables and antique markets.

As to real estate.......a MUST for anyone.......in my opinion......the number one asset that is needed by EVERYONE to diversify their stock and fund holdings. AND....these days a real GENERATOR of wealth.

 

The HOUSING FRENZY has now spread all over the country.

Homes selling faster than ever even as prices rise to all-time highs
About 59% of homes that went under contract had an accepted offer within two weeks of hitting the market

https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/home-sales-record-pace-redfin

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Homes are getting snatched off the market at a record pace despite rising home prices and mortgage rates, according to a new Redfin report.

About 59% of homes that went under contract had an accepted offer within two weeks of hitting the market, an-all time high since the real estate brokerage began tracking the data in 2012.

In the week ending on March 28, 61% of homes sold in two weeks or less, according to the data. Meanwhile, just under half of all homes, about 47%, that went under contract accepted an offer within one week, an increase from 33% from a year ago.

At the same time, the report revealed that active listings fell 42% from the same period in 2020, which is an all-time low.

Still, more than 40% of homes sold above the original asking price, an all-time high, and roughly 16% higher compared to a year earlier, according to the data.

The median home-sale price was $335,613, another all-time high and an increase of about 17% compared to last year.

However, as prices are rising, so are mortgage rates. The rate for a 30-year mortgage increased to 3.18%, the highest level since June.

The uptick in prices and increase in mortgage rates coupled with the "dwindling number of homes for sale" has made it harder for some to find an affordable home, according to Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather.

However, Fairweather indicated that more affordable options may arise following President Biden's $2.3 trillion plan to fix the nation’s infrastructure.

"Looking ahead, Biden's infrastructure plan aims to incentivize zoning for multi-family homes, which could increase the supply of affordable homes and provide even more people a path to homeownership," Fairweather said.

However, "there is no guarantee the incentives would be enough for local governments to change their zoning practices," he added.

Redfin analyzed 400 U.S. metro areas during the four-week period ending March 28 for the data. However, the brokerage cautioned that the comparisons in the report "don't necessarily reflect how the housing market has changed over the past year" due to virus-related restrictions.

"Year-over-year comparisons may more reflect the fact that this time last year, stay-at-home-orders halted both home-buying and selling activity," the brokerage noted.

MY COMMENT

In many areas it it TRULY a massive sellers market. In other areas.....this housing BOOM is simply MANIA....being driven by the publicity from the BOOMING areas of the country. REGARDLESS of why or how.....we are NOW seeing a nationwide housing boom. Buyers are in full on PANIC mode. It is a feeding frenzy to try to buy a home right now.

I believe that this boom WILL continue for a long time in the select areas of the country that are DESIRABLE. As to the rest of the country.......the boom will end much sooner.

I remember a few real estate BOOMS in some of the areas where I have lived in the past. One thing that seems common to ALL the booms.........that I have lived through........is the fact that when the market COOLS......it happens very quickly. The market is booming.....and.....a week or two later it is suddenly dead. There is usually NO advance warning.

For anyone that just happens to be at the home buying time in their life right now.....I really feel sorry for them....this market is INSANE. For the PANIC BUYERS that are just jumping on the bandwagon......watch out......home prices CAN ACTUALLY go down. The market can collapse very quickly.

In my little area........of 4200 homes.....there are SEVEN homes for sale right now in ANY price range. Of those seven homes........THREE are well above $1MILLION. At least this is an improvement in inventory. I guess this is the SPRING inventory increase. We are STILL seeing homes go.....pending.......in 1-5 days of being listed.....AND.....prices are STILL escalating QUICKLY.

One of my kids sold their home.....and bought another home...... less than a year ago. They got multiple offers and sold at $50,000 over list price....and.....set a new record for their neighborhood.....at $650,000. NOW....homes in their former neighborhood......with the same square footage.....are selling for $150,000 to $200,000 over what their house sold for. THAT....is how CRAZY the market is here. BUT......the market here....one of the most desirable cities in the country with people and companies POURING into the area.....has been hot for two years.

 

As to stocks and funds. I see a DISTINCT LACK of articles or stories with a negative slant today. Simply....nothing new. Perhaps a BIG indicator that we are in for a big open on Monday.....since.....the majority of the.....short term..... economic and business news that is siting out there right now is very positive. I guess all of the media and others that generate financial reporting are tied up this weekend.

HAPPY EASTER.......fellow investors.

 

Yes.....to the above.

BUT....here at least......many sales are now....ALL CASH. AND....buyers are waiving option time periods.....waiving inspections......and....even waiving appraisals. We ARE an extreme market.....from what I read just a few days ago....the MOST crazy market in the country.

HERE.......I am seeing homes go pending....at prices ranging from $100,000 to $400,000........ABOVE......what they would have sold for LESS than a year ago. Like ALL.....MANIA situations.......when the music stops there are going to be a lot of people that dont have a chair. There are going to be some SERIOUSLY UNDERWATER.....buyers. I HOPE they are.....at least....being realistic about what payment they can afford. I dont think we are anywhere near that point yet. BUT....the prices are ESCALATING so quickly here....there has got to be limits on how many buyers are out there that can afford the current prices.

Part of the BIG problem now is the fact that people are afraid to list their home. They are afraid their home will sell quickly......and...... they will not be able to find anything to buy,........they will get stuck in a rapidly rising market......with NO HOME.......and.......will quickly be priced out of the market.

Like everything.....TIME WILL TELL.

 

HERE....is a more basic article.....a good starting point for those that are siting and thinking about starting to invest. For anyone that is just about to leave the starting gate as a new investor.........there is lots of content in this thread and in ALL the other threads on this board......... that is general in nature. You dont have to be a trader or stock picket to get started. Read everything you can find.....and.....start SLOW with a simple Index like a......SP500 Index Fund or ETF. Any of the big brokers is going to have a simple SP500 Index Fund or ETF available at very low expense.

What Pickleball Can Teach You About Investing
It’s funny, but playing the great sport of pickleball recently got me thinking about how much in common chasing a yellow whiffle ball around has with successful retirement plannin

https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/602541/what-pickleball-can-teach-you-about-investing

(BOLD is my opinion OR what i consider important content)

"If you had gym class in school, the teacher probably told you there are life lessons to be learned from playing sports. You learn how to succeed or fail with grace, the value of humility, the benefits of sharing, how to build your confidence, and so on. (Although, what getting hit in the face with a dodgeball is supposed to teach, other than pain, is hard to say.)

What about money? Does the ability of sports to impart knowledge extend to investing? In the game of pickleball, it just might.

For the uninitiated, pickleball is a paddle sport along the lines of tennis where players hit a whiffle ball back and forth over a net. It is also one of the fastest growing sports in America. The number of active pickleball players grew by more than 21% last year alone, according to the Sport and Fitness Industry Association.

A major contributor to pickleball’s participation growth is its popularity throughout retirement communities. The sport can help fulfill some of retirees’ long-term needs, such as staying healthy, social and competitive.

This past summer, with so many activities closed because of pandemic restrictions, I finally gave pickleball a try outdoors. The game is easy enough for a newbie like me to start playing quickly. Yet, as with any sport, there are various levels of skill and techniques required to master it.

But the game offered me much more than a fun experience. Coincidentally, the nuances of pickleball can double as lessons on how to reach your long-term financial goals. No, it doesn’t provide complex sabermetric data, like Moneyball, in which to create an elaborate, inimitable investment strategy. Rather, the sport of pickleball is a resource for understanding basic investment principles that can be just as valuable.

Here are six investment lessons I learned from playing pickleball:

1. Remember the whole is greater than the sum of its parts
Pickleball is a combination of three different sports: tennis, badminton and ping pong. Mixing separate sports to create one, exciting game is reminiscent of the role of diversification in your portfolio. A diversified portfolio holds a broad mix of investments across different asset classes, like stocks and bonds. Together, the characteristics of each investment determine the portfolio’s overall risk and potential for growth. Essentially, you avoid the risk of putting all your eggs in one basic.

2. Get the most bang for your buck
Enjoyment from sports shouldn’t come with a high price tag. Fortunately, pickleball is an inexpensive sport. Essentially, all you need is a paddle and a whiffle ball. Unlike golf, there are no course fees or cart charges. Similarly, investing should also be a low-cost activity. Whereas with recreation and sports, costs can diminish your enjoyment, with investing costs can diminish your returns. The more you pay, from adviser fees to trading costs, the less of your return you will keep.

3. Practice good communication
Pickleball is played with singles or doubles. Successfully playing with a partner requires teamwork, much of which is based on good communication. The same applies to finances, where your partner is most likely your spouse. It’s essential that each of you clearly understands your family’s finances, including beneficiary rights for things like pensions, Social Security and required minimum distributions. In the event one spouse passes, a succession plan should be in place and the survivor should be prepared to take over investment responsibilities.

4. Don’t wait to play
Pickleball is a relatively simple sport to play, which is why so many first-timers can pick up a paddle and just start playing. I’m not sure what took me so long to get into the game. Although not as simple, there really is no right time to start investing. Waiting for opportune market conditions before investing is a form of market timing, which can be a loser’s game for two reasons. One, it is exceedingly difficult to consistently buy the right investment at the right time over the long run. Two, staying on the sidelines can result in missing out on some of the market’s best trading days.

5. Think long term
You use your mind as much as your feet when playing pickleball. Chasing after an errant whiffle ball that takes an unexpected turn midflight or an unusual bounce is a waste of energy. Instead, it’s better to follow a game plan and ignore the occasional fluke. Likewise, the market can move wildly on any given day. Those short-term stock swings shouldn’t affect your long-term focus. Chasing returns – investing based on recent performance – usually results in wasted profits. You have a higher probability of achieving your financial goals by staying the course and focusing on what you can control, like your costs and your asset allocation.

6. Always be mindful of risk
In any sport, it’s important to be mindful of the risk of injury; especially, as you age and it becomes harder to recover. When investing, you should be just as considerate of your age and investment risk. In retirement, for example, you likely have limited income sources and a shorter investment time horizon, making it more difficult to recover from financial losses. Therefore, it can be safer to reduce the amount of higher-risk investments, such as stocks, in your portfolio to try to preserve your wealth.

MY COMMENT

Anyone...that is thinking of starting to invest. Read, read, read.....do your homework. Go slow and start small till you figure out the basics. DO NO be intimidated by all the jargon and technical talk and trading talk. People tend to over analyze investing and make it more difficult than necessary. It is NOT math.....it is NOT physics.....anyone can do it. YOU....can do it.

 

HERE....is another more BASIC article....to go along with the one a few posts above.....for those that have not started investing for their future yet....or....have been putting it off.

No money? No expertise? Ditch your excuses and start investing anyway

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/12/her...ting-no-matter-how-little-money-you-have.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"You don’t know where to start. You hardly have any money. You don’t know the financial terms.

Lots of conditions may stop non-investors from becoming investors, says Bola Sokunbi, a financial education instructor and author of Clever Girl Finance.

The intimidation people feel is real, and Sokunbi thinks it stems from a financial literacy gap. The result is thinking you don’t have enough money to start investing and believing it’s just too hard.

The danger of waiting till you have more cash, aside from the opportunity cost of missing out on time in the market, is that you may never actually get around to it, Sokunbi says.

Time ticks on “and people find other ways to spend their money,” Sokunbi said.

First, adjust your mindset. “Investing doesn’t have to be complicated, and you don’t need to be Warren Buffett,” Sokunbi said. “You don’t have to have a financial degree.”

What you do need is a little education to get a sense of how investing works. “Don’t feel intimidated,” Sokunbi said. “Instead, pick up a financial investing 101 book, or Google ‘investing 101.’ This will give you a sense of confidence.”

Learn the core principles, Sokunbi says: what’s a stock, what’s a bond and how fees play a part in your returns. Figure out how much risk you can tolerate, so you’ll know if you should stay more conservative. Understand the importance of diversification.

It’s not a casino
It’s a common misconception that putting money into the stock market is a form of gambling.

There is a key difference, says Patrina Dixon, a financial education instructor in Windsor, Connecticut.

Research.

“There isn’t any research that goes into buying the Powerball ticket,” she said.

You can find out some basic statistics to prove this, such as how many times someone has won a lottery in a specific state, or the amount of tax someone will owe on a specific jackpot amount. Lotteries return money for very few people based on random numbers. The stock market, in contrast, has historical data on returns and performance that you can track.

Rein in emotions
One of the biggest investor mistakes is giving into panic over the market, Sokunbi says.

Thursday’s deep plunge is a test for many investors, but investing experts counsel staying the course.

“When there’s a decline in the stock market, people rush to sell,” Sokunbi said. “Or if it’s doing well, people rush to buy.“
Don’t let your emotions shape your investing decisions.

“When you understand it takes time for investments to grow, you start thinking long term,” she said.

When you hear about stock market returns of 7% or 8% over time, remember that at times you’ll see greater returns, Sokunbi says. Other times you’ll see big losses. “Staying in for the long term is how you’ll achieve that average return despite the dips and spikes,” Sokunbi said.

Look before you spend
l
Follow some basic money management to accumulate some cash to invest.

Frequently, people who say “I don’t have any money” are looking backwards, trying to figure out what happened.

Avoid that frustrating look-back by sitting down with your money and creating a plan for each paycheck, Dixon says.

Walk through your day. Say you stop and buy takeout one day. “If you allocated for it, that’s fine,” Dixon said. “But if you didn’t write that down, then you’ve taken away from another category.”

“Tell each dollar where to go,” Dixon said.

No amount is too small
There’s no minimum for saving and investing, says Brent Weiss, a certified financial planner and co-founder at advisory firm Facet Wealth in Baltimore.

“Just because someone says you can put up to $6,000 in an IRA, don’t think you have to put in that much,” he said.

If you can save $10 a month, save $10 a month.

Schedule regular money dates with yourself and increase your savings by a small amount. “Those small steps will work,” Weiss said. “Down the road, you’ll be saving more than you ever imagined you would.”

Hitting targets like your first $100 or $1,000 is extremely motivating."

MY COMMENT

SOME very true stuff above. Everyone started out just like this little article. Personally My wife and I started out being able to save $10 to $15 per month out of our income of $600 per month back in the 1970's. Any new investor has a lifetime to learn and invest. The MOST DIFFICULT thing is.......THE FIRST STEP.

Set realistic goals and CELEBRATE when you hit those goals. There are NO BARRIERS to investing and achieving financial security.....other than YOUR own thinking and the limits you place on yourself.

 

AS USUAL

I am once again posting my PORTFOLIO MODEL. My initial criteria to start the process to consider a business are.......BIG CAP, AMERICAN, DIVIDEND PAYING, GREAT MANAGEMENT, ICONIC PRODUCT, WORLD WIDE LEADER IN THEIR FIELD, LONG TERM HORIZON, etc, etc, etc.

PORTFOLIO MODEL

"Here is my "PORTFOLIO MODEL" for all accounts managed which is the basis for MUCH of my discussion in this thread. I am re-posting this since I often talk in this thread about my portfolio model. My custom in the past on this sort of thread was to re-post my portfolio model every once in a while since I will tend to talk about it once in a while. I "manage" six portfolios for various family including a trust. ALL are set up in this fashion. If I was starting this portfolio today, lets say with $200,000. I would put half the money into the stock side of the portfolio, with an equal amount going into each stock. The other half of the money would go into the fund side of the portfolio, with an equal amount going into each fund. As is my long time custom, I would than let the portfolio run as it wished with NO re-balancing, in other words, I would let the winners run. Over the LONG TERM of investing in this style (at least in my actual portfolios), the stock side seems to reach and settle in at about 55% of the total portfolio and the fund side at about 45% of the total portfolio over time. That is a GOOD THING since it tells me that my stock picks are generally beating the funds over the longer term. AND....since the funds in the account generally meet or beat the SP500, that is a VERY good thing.

As mentioned in a post in this thread, I include the funds in the portfolio as a counter-balance to my investing BIAS and stock picking BIAS and to add a top active management fund that often beats the SP500 (Fidelity Contra Fund) and a SP500 Index Fund to get broad exposure to the best 500 companies in AMERICAN business and economy. The funds also give me broad diversification as a counter-balance to my very concentrated 12 stock portfolio. At the same time the funds double and triple up on my individual stock holdings............that I consider the BEST individual businesses in the WORLD.

STOCKS:

Alphabet Inc
Amazon
Apple
Costco
Home Depot
Honeywell
Nike
Microsoft
Proctor & Gamble
Tesla
Nvidia
Snow (100 shares, a rare, long term, speculative holding)

MUTUAL FUNDS:

SP500 Index Fund
Fidelity Contra Fund

CAUTION: This is a moderate aggressive to aggressive portfolio on the stock side with the small concentration of stocks and the mix of stocks that I hold and with the concentration of big name tech stocks. Especially for my age group. (71). So for anyone considering this sort of portfolio, be careful and consider your risk tolerance and where you are in your life and financial needs. I am able to do this sort of portfolio since my stock market account is NOT needed for my retirement income AND I have a fairly HIGH RISK TOLERANCE. In addition I am a fully invested, all the time, LONG TERM investor. (LONG TERM meaning many years, 5, 10, 20, years or more)"

MY COMMENT

This portfolio is HIGHLY CONCENTRATED on the big cap side of things. OBVIOUSLY between the funds and my twelve stock holdings there is MUCH doubling and tripling up on the stocks. THAT is INTENTIONAL. I strongly subscribe to the view of Buffett and some others that TOO MUCH diversification kills returns. I do NOT believe in the current diversification FAD that most people seem to now follow.......or think they are following. I DO NOT do bonds and think the current level of bonds held by younger investors.....those under age 50.....is extremely foolish.I DO NOT do market timing or Technical Analysis.