The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I am PULLING for your new all time high Zukodany. You must be very close.

    Success to EVERYONE.....no matter how you invest or trade. The more successful traders and investors we have on this board the better the experience will be for all posters and lurkers.
     
    zukodany likes this.
  2. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    SP500 is +9.08% after today. I believe this is the high of the year. A VERY nice number.
     
  3. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I don't know how you guys manage to pay attention, every day.

    We had an epic day and I am very grateful for the good luck but I'm happier ignoring it, most of the time.
     
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  4. oldmanram

    oldmanram Well-Known Member

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    Hi Tom,
    I can't speak for anyone else, but for me it's a 15 minute check-in the morning , and the same after the close , On a bad day , well it's kinda quiet ...... But I know of a couple of guys that have 4 screens around them and just "stare and tap" all day long. Not Me

    GREAT DAY !!

    Wifey Account
    UP 1.07%

    My Account
    UP .80%
    Stocks UP .85%
    ETF's .74%
    My Biggest winner Micron (MU) UP 1.42%
    My Biggest Loser ATT (T) DN 1.35%

    Let's keep it going , spend those stimulus checks !!!

     
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  5. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Just long habit. I dont watch all day. I usually catch up on reading in the morning while the business TV is on. After that I usually am gone for the rest of the day till close to the close or beyond. At that time I catch back up with what has gone on.

    When I am out and about....every day....I am NOT a phone person.....I never check my phone and half the time I have it on mute. In fact I make a point of telling everyone I meet....if you call me or text me, and I dont answer....I am NOT ignoring you, I am not a phone person. I dont do ANY social media or any of that "stuff". I ONLY do minimal Facebook as required for music....nothing of a personal nature. I know how to use all the tech, texting, etc, etc....but consider it a waste of time. People are always amazed when they ask if I am on Facebook and I say....no. LOL....I have ZERO social media footprint......other than professional stuff for music. SO.....in the modern world....I guess I dont exist.

    I have always been a business person....very interested in finance, money, investing, business, taxes, etc, etc. So I do what I do out of interest. I definately do not do the all day long....multiple screen....thing.

    For many people...it would drive them crazy. Too much focus on the short term "stuff" is often a bad thing for an investor. It makes you......do something.
     
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  6. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    No judgement, W.

    My comment was rooted in the thought that I am happier when I don't fixate on our wealth.

    In fact, I've designed our portfolio around specific companies for specific reasons. It is all dialed in for retirement but now I plan to migrate to broad indices, as these companies change management and turn into flaming piles of excrement as the new guys try to generate huge wealth in a short period of time. I just don't enjoy the research work as much, anymore.
     
    #4906 TomB16, Apr 8, 2021
    Last edited: Apr 9, 2021
  7. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    I remember when I used to produce and mixdown projects way back when... my- back then- significant other used to tell me “I have no idea how you have the patience to sit there cooped up in the lab all day playing the same damn song for hours on ends” but hey as long as she got the checks she wouldn’t bitch that much....
    This??.... Is CHILD PLAY compared to all the years.. DECADES I worked for very little money but to advance my musical career... I’m sure that W could preach about his days as a starving musician (or maybe not)
    I tell my current wife this: if you would ask me to do the same amount of work TODAY for THE SAME AMOUNT of money I make today I will say

    ————————
    NO THANK YOU
    ————————
     
  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Yeah TomB16....I also see management changes as the thing that will drive me out of investing. Sooner or later every company that I own will move on to new management. A very dangerous time for any company....especially today. They always tend to hire some celebrity star manager rather than the company nerd that spent 30 years with the business. Iconic companies end up being converted to garbage in about 3-6 years usually.....after a typical management change over.

    I KNOW that sooner or later my investment portfolio sill simply be the....SP500 Index.
     
  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    As a shareholder in Amazon.....i consider this good news. Although, this is NOT a final result....only a partial count.

    Early vote counts show Amazon warehouse workers not likely to unionize in Bessemer, Alabama

    https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-n...arehouse-workers-not-likely-unionize-n1263558

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Amazon warehouse workers here were voting overwhelmingly against forming a union Thursday after a monthslong campaign in which labor had hoped to make inroads into the sprawling company.

    As vote-tallying paused for the night, 1,100 employees had voted against unionizing, compared to 463 in favor. The tally presented a nearly insurmountable climb for union supporters to obtain the 1,608 votes needed to win.

    If it is approved, the union would be the first for Amazon, the country's second-largest employer, in the United States.

    While the vote has not been completed, the Retail, Wholesale and Department Store Union, or RWDSU, the union seeking to represent the 5,800 workers in Bessemer, has already said it would challenge the vote by filing unfair labor practice charges with the NLRB. It will allege that Amazon broke the law with some of its anti-union activity in the run-up to the election.

    "Our system is broken, Amazon took full advantage of that, and we will be calling on the labor board to hold Amazon accountable for its illegal and egregious behavior during the campaign," said Stuart Appelbaum, president of the RWDSU. "But make no mistake about it: This still represents an important moment for working people, and their voices will be heard."

    Amazon did not provide a statement after Thursday evening's vote counting concluded.

    After the seven-week window to vote by mail ended March 29, the NLRB spent two weeks checking the eligibility of ballots and counting them in a process observed by the union and Amazon. Out of 5,805 eligible voters, 3,215 ballots were cast, but "hundreds" were set aside as contested, mostly by Amazon, according to the union. Ballots can be contested by Amazon or the union based on factors like illegible signatures or questions about whether employees' job titles entitle them to vote. Those ballots are counted only if the final margin is small enough.
    Few surprises
    Labor experts said the early predictions about the result are not a surprise, given the resources Amazon has invested in countering organizing.

    "It's so hard for workers to win in a situation like this," said Rebecca Givan, an associate professor of management and labor relations at Rutgers University in New Jersey. "The most likely outcome in these situations is that the employer successfully busts the union by instilling fear and uncertainty into the workers, and even those workers that were initially in favor of organizing into a union get afraid and change their mind."

    The Bessemer warehouse, which opened in March 2020, is Amazon's first fulfillment center in Alabama. Workers started organizing toward a union vote in August, hoping it would help improve their working conditions. Currently, it is difficult to go to the bathroom without being penalized, said Jennifer Bates, an Amazon worker in Bessemer, who said she was inspired to support the union effort after regularly having seen her colleagues walk out of work limping from the physical toll the job takes.

    At the start of this year, Amazon launched what labor experts characterized as a classic, well-funded anti-union campaign at the warehouse.

    Workers said they were required to attend multiple meetings during their shifts, in which Amazon representatives explained why a union was not, in their view, beneficial for workers. Posters all over the warehouse, some of them in bathroom stalls, encouraged workers to vote no. The company also distributed buttons and stickers for employees to wear, and it created a website and a hashtag, #DoItWithoutDues, highlighting how workers might have to pay $500 in annual dues to the union.

    Amazon has a long history of thwarting unionization. In 1999, the Communication Workers of America started a campaign to unionize 400 customer service employees in Seattle. After months of anti-union campaigning, Amazon closed down the call center in 2000 in what the company said was a restructuring related to the dot-com bust.

    In 2014, 21 equipment technicians at an Amazon warehouse in Delaware voted against organizing with the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers following what the union spokesman described as "intense pressure from managers and anti-union consultants."

    Amazon spokeswoman Mary Osako told Time magazine at the time that the "no" vote against third-party representation showed that employees "prefer a direct connection with Amazon."
    Organizing fallout
    Workers in Bessemer who opposed the union seemed to question its purpose.

    LaVonette Stokes, who works as a labor organizer for the Alabama teachers union when she's not working at Amazon, and her husband are have positions as mid-level process guides that earn $15 to $19 an hour. But she said that a union for unskilled labor in Bessemer makes no sense and that it would move too slowly. She and her husband spent $2,400 of their own money to print flyers that detailed Amazon's benefits.

    "We're talking about a union that has made contracts where, yes, they got a raise, but it took them about five to seven years before they even got to that raise," she said.

    Her husband, William, said: "We're not against unions. We're against this particular union, and we're against a union at this particular facility. Everything that this union is offering, we can do ourselves."

    Workers in favor of the union said they had hoped it would help improve their working conditions, providing better job security and benefits when Amazon is reporting record profits in part because of a pandemic-induced boom in online retail.

    "I like my job. I give it 110 percent every day I go in there, regardless how hard it is, how stressful it is," said Darryl Richardson, a worker at the Bessemer warehouse. "But I feel like employees deserve better and more for what they do."

    Richardson said he and other pro-union workers expect to be fired or forced to quit their jobs.

    "I have to move on, and I hate it," he said. "It's sad that you do everything you can to try to make things better for the people and you feel like you are going to lose your job."

    Kelly Nantel, an Amazon spokesperson, said in an email, "We respect all our employees' right to join, form, or not to join a labor union or other lawful organization of their own selection, without fear of reprisal, intimidation, or harassment."

    Amazon spokesperson Leah Seay said that in Bessemer receive health care coverage and hourly pay of at least $15.30, which is well above the federal minimum wage of $7.25 an hour. Alabama has no minimum wage law.

    Employees also get a retirement plan, Seay said.
    Broader impact
    The union drive drew global attention to conditions for Amazon's warehouse workers and the lengths the company goes to prevent them from organizing, said Givan, the Rutgers professor.

    "Workers around the country who have been watching what's happening will be potentially inspired by what can happen if you do take action and get national attention," she said.

    Analysts said efforts to unionize at other Amazon warehouses in the U.S. are likely to continue, particularly in higher-cost states like New York and California. RWDSU spokesperson Chelsea Connor said the union received over a thousand inquiries about organizing from Amazon workers at other facilities since the organizing effort began.

    "Amazon is already about the best-paying job a non-skilled laborer can get in Alabama," said Michael Pachter, an analyst with Wedbush Securities. "But in higher-costs states, it's barely a living wage.

    "It will cut into profits," he said. "But it's a humane thing to do.""

    MY COMMENT

    Outside of government workers...union representation is rare today. I remember my sisters government job becoming unionized before she retired. They ended up with the same pay and benefits that they could have gotten anyway.....and....her actual pay was less by about $2 after the union dues.

    The stock is up nearly $20 after hours....I assume partly due to this story.
     
  10. oldmanram

    oldmanram Well-Known Member

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    Tom,
    I hear you on the research, It takes a lot of time to properly research a company, and as far as the change in management I have to agree as well, that is one of my first stops when researching an ETF, the management team, sometimes it really correlates to the performance over time.

    Below is the reason I don't listen to analysts:



    FS KKR Capital Corp. II (FSKR) Receives a Sell from Wells Fargo
    Jason Carr- November 12, 2020, 11:05 PM EDT
    SHARE ON:
    Wells Fargo analyst Finian O'shea (FSKR) yesterday. The company’s shares closed last Thursday at $15.22.

    According to TipRanks.com, O’Shea is a 3-star analyst with an average return of 7.0% and a 57.6% success rate. O’Shea covers the Financial sector, focusing on stocks such as Sixth Street Specialty Lending, Oaktree Specialty Lending, and Apollo Investment Corp.

    Currently, the analyst consensus on FS KKR Capital Corp. II is a Moderate Buy with an average price target of $17.00.

    ME:
    So what is it ? a sell rating like the headline or a moderate buy like the last line ?

    It was at 13 in June 2020 , but yielding something like 15%, today its at 20 with a 10.57% yield.
    I'm thinking it may be one of those retirement stocks to keep a hold of. We'll see
     
    #4910 oldmanram, Apr 8, 2021
    Last edited: Apr 9, 2021
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  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Finally took a glance at the old account today. A nice green beginning. BUT....the market seems a bit directionless to me today. the DOW started strong today and the other averages had a nice come-back. The SP500 even hit 4100 for the first time today. BUT....still....I dont see a lot of confidence one way or the other. SO....time will tell where we end up for today and to end the week. I am HOPING to end with five days of green this week.

    When I looked 7 of my 12 positions were positive.......probably down one or two from earlier in the day. Honeywell was my STAR PERFORMER today up by 1.68%....I believe based on a comment from one of the banks.
     
  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    HERE is a take on how we are starting out today. I continue to see VERY LITTLE that is much of a negative in the data or news. I suspect that the market averages are going to take a bit of a breather to wait for EARNINGS to start to come out. EARNINGS will be the big driver of the markets over the next month or two.

    Stock market news live updates: S&P 500 logs another intraday record, heads for weekly gain

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-april-9-2021-221143900-221441259.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Stocks traded mostly higher on Friday in another record-setting session on Wall Street.

    The S&P 500 edged higher to reach another all-time high. The blue-chip index was on track to end the week higher for a third straight week. The Dow gained, while the Nasdaq fell slightly as technology stocks gave back some of Thursday's sharp advances.

    Traders considered more reassurances from Federal Reserve Jerome Powell, who reiterated in remarks Wednesday that the Fed was looking for "actual progress" rather than "forecasts" for progress toward the central bank's employment and inflation goals. He also underscored the distance still left for the economy to go before reaching these targets and prompting a policy shift, with the recovery in the labor market especially still "uneven and incomplete" to date. A disappointing jobless claims report earlier on Thursday, with new claims unexpectedly climbing for a second straight week, appeared to affirm these sentiments.

    Treasury yields have come back down as fears over a near-term Fed policy shift deflated, prompting investors to circle back to growth stocks and large-cap tech names in particular that would benefit from a lower-rate environment. Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) each notched record intraday and closing highs during Thursday's session.

    These moves back into tech stocks, however, have come at the expense of some of the cyclical and value names that had been outperforming earlier this year. The S&P energy and financials sectors have lagged over the past month, though they remain the two top outperforming sectors when looking back over 2021 to date.

    We’ve seen this rotation into more value-oriented names from growth to value, but as we enter into earnings season, we anticipate growth names to see somewhat of a rebound because we expect strong earnings coming out of the growth names," Colleen MacPherson, Penobscot Investment Management portfolio manager, told Yahoo Finance. "But overall, I think the trend into value, small caps, more cyclical names will continue as the economy reopens and more people are inoculated and we get back to normalcy.” "

    9:26 a.m. ET: U.S. producer prices jumped more than expected last month

    Producer prices in the U.S. increased by 1% in March over February, coming in greater than the 0.5% increase consensus economists expected and the 0.5% monthly rise from the prior month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday.

    Over last year, the producer price index jumped 4.2% for the biggest jump since September 2011, also accelerated over February and coming in greater than the 3.8% rise anticipated.

    Excluding more volatile food and energy prices, producer prices rose 0.7% month-over-month, or faster than the 0.2% rise expected. Producer prices excluding food and energy rose 3.1% year-over-year versus the 2.7% rise anticipated.

    8:50 a.m. ET: China's factory prices hit the highest level in more than two years as commodity prices increase

    China's producer price index jumped far more than expected in March to reach the highest level in over two years, as the costs of goods at the factory gate surged.

    The PPI for the world's second largest economy increased by 4.4% in March, accelerating from February's 1.7% monthly gain, according to the country's National Bureau of Statistics. This was also greater than the 3.6% rise expected.

    The increase came as a result of "factors such as rising international commodity prices" for inputs like crude and iron ore and as industrial production and investment demand in the country rebounded, according to National Bureau of Statistics senior statistician Dong Lijuan."

    MY COMMENT

    The producer price data is being ignored today......I see very little comment on the data in any of the media. The markets are very much in play today with no clear direction.....yet. As I said...earnings are going to be the short term focus.
     
  13. oldmanram

    oldmanram Well-Known Member

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    I;m pretty flat today , biggest mover PM UP .99% what does that tell you ?
     
  14. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Follow the money.......is a pretty good mantra....in crime and investing. Here is what is going on with....the money.....lately in the markets.

    Melt up? More money poured into stocks in past five months than last 12 years

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/melt-more-money-poured-stocks-123155636.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Equity funds have attracted more than half a trillion dollars in the past five months, exceeding inflows recorded over the previous 12 years, according to data from BofA, which has likened the stampede to a "melt-up" in markets.

    The flows are also raising fears of a pullback from record highs, given valuations are at the highest since the dotcom bubble of the late 1990s, with the S&P 500 trading at nearly 22 times forward earnings.

    "Goldilocks and melt-up are popular terms this week and we think that can be seen through market valuation," said Emmanuel Cau, head of European equity strategy at Barclays. "We remain optimistic but there’s less upside left in our view."

    Deutsche Bank said this week it expects a 6% to 10% pullback over the next three months as economic growth peaks.

    It was followed by a massive $40 million bet in the U.S. options market on Thursday that the Cboe Volatility Index - often called Wall Street's fear gauge - will break above the 25 level and rise towards 40 by mid-July.

    The VIX is currently trading around 17 points, the lowest level since early 2020.

    "You should definitely be worried about valuations and all the more so when people start justifying extremely high valuations," said Fahad Kamal, chief investment officer at Kleinwort Hambros.

    "We are risk-on, but we haven't put our foot down on the accelerator because of valuations in some parts of the market."

    SIGNALS OF STRESS

    A record $576 billion has flown into equity funds since November -- more than the $452 billion seen in the last 12 years combined, all thanks to ultra-easy monetary policies and unprecedented stimulus.

    Kicking off the second-quarter with the second highest earnings multiples in more than a 100 years, many traditional market-top signals, ranging from retail investor surveys to valuations, are flashing amber.

    Some of those worries have seeped in, with investors loading $120 billion-plus into cash funds in the last three weeks. But equity asset allocations are still at a record 63.6%, according to BofA.

    Kamal, however, said with hopes fading on bonds offering a real return, there is no alternative to stocks.

    Still, many signals imply that some of the world’s biggest stock markets are ripe for a pullback.

    On a technical basis, the benchmark S&P 500 and STOXX 600 are in overbought territories. Relative strength indexes (RSI) -- a 0-100 gauge of bullish and bearish momentum -- are at 70, a level that leaves them vulnerable to profit-taking.

    Sentiment is also bullish. The latest sentiment survey by American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) showed retail investors are their most bullish in the past three years.

    "Sentiment is in very worrisome territory as is valuation, yet money flows continue to push indices higher," said Tobias Levkovich, Citi's chief U.S. equity strategist."

    MY COMMENT

    I would NOT want to be a trader in the current environment.....at least a small trader. Now the Quants.....and....big program traders with all their tools and computing power....I am sure they love the current markets.

    A HUGE amount of money....some of it dumb money...has come into the markets lately....obviously. Sooner or later the music is going to stop.....and.....many will pay a price. For my money it has ALWAYS been about....quality, quality, quality. I dont mind investing a portion of my stock market money in individual stocks....but they have to be the best of the best.

    I continue to be fully invested for the long term as usual.
     
  15. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    As a holder of Honeywell stock.....I am happy to take the gains today that are a result of this little upgrade. Here are the details of why the stock is UP today for anyone else that owns this company.

    Honeywell Rises on Upgrade, Price Target Hike From Deutsche Bank
    A Deutsche Bank analyst takes a 'rare opportunity' to upgrade Honeywell International to buy.

    https://www.thestreet.com/investing/honeywell-gets-buy-upgrade-price-hike-from-deustche-bank

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Honeywell International (HON) - Get Report was upgraded by Deutsche Bank to buy from hold by an analyst who believes the industrial giant's stock is one of the most attractive in its peer group.

    Shares of the Charlotte, North Carolina company were up 1.75% to $223.71 Friday at last check.

    Deutsche Bank analyst Nicole DeBlase raised her price target to $244 from $222 per share.


    DeBlase said Thursday in a research note that despite Honeywell's "best in-class metrics" and other factors, the stock has been the worst performer in the multi-industry, electrical equipment and machinery (MI/EE) group year-to-date, after only showing average performance in 2020.

    "We take this rare opportunity to upgrade the stock, particularly as we now see 5% and 10% upside to consensus EPS forecasts for 2021 and 2022, among the most attractive in the MI/EE group," the analyst said.

    DeBlase said that when she downgraded Honeywell to hold nearly a year ago, "the world felt entirely different than it does today -- the COVID pandemic was only just beginning, and a number of countries around the world (including much of Europe and the U.S.) were in full-on lockdown mode."

    "But now, nearly a year later, while COVID infection rates remain elevated in much of the world (we are certainly not out of the woods yet)," she said, "a light at the end of the tunnel is forming, becoming brighter with each vaccination."

    As vaccine deployment prompts the global economy to reopen, DeBlase said she looks "more favorably on exposures to Commercial Aerospace, O&G (oil and gas) and [Non-Residential] Construction."

    JPMorgan analyst C. Stephen Tusa Jr. raised his price target on Honeywell's stock to a Wall Street high of $250 a share from $200, saying the stock had underperformed this year.

    "We view Honeywell as a transformed franchise versus past cycles, as management has been successful in driving operational improvements while also investing in R&D and rationalizing the portfolio through divestitures and what we consider reasonably priced M&A," said Tusa, who rates the stock overweight.

    On Tuesday, Barclays analyst Julian Mitchell raised his price target on Honeywell to $230 from $225, while keeping an overweight rating. Mitchell said he expects most multi-industry companies that have given 2021 guidance to raise it when reporting first-quarter results.

    Honeywell made news earlier this week after the company said it was teaming with the rapper and entrepreneur will.i.am to produce a nearly $300 multi-technology face mask known as the Xupermask."

    MY COMMENT

    I look at this company a little bit differently from the comments above. ALTHOUGH.....I welcome the upgrade and the short term BUMP up in price today.

    What I see with this company is a business that....over the past year.....started one year ago with a price of $143 per share. NOW....one year later they are at $224 per share......a +56.6% gain. Now....year to date.....they started the year at $207 and are currently at $224.....a gain year to date of +8.2%. They are.....actually....beating the one year return....+48.5%.....of the SP500.

    I am content to collect my Honeywell dividend and ALSO capture those sorts of gains. I need to have something in my portfolio besides TECH and Honeywell gives me some nice diversification along with my other NON-TECH stocks.....Costco, Amazon, Nike, Home Depot, and Proctor & Gamble.

    I ALSO...have a much longer investing HORIZON.....than the typical stock analyst.
     
  16. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    WELL....I did my final look at my portfolio till after the close. I see that my gains have NOW....doubled for the day. There has been a distinct IMPROVEMENT.....so far. Of course....we STILL have a long time to go and will no doubt face the.....dreaded......mid day......and....into the close....market FADE that we have been seeing lately.

    My ASPIRATIONAL word of the day to the markets today is.......STRENGTH. Not that the markets EVER pay any attention to what I aspire to.
     
  17. oldmanram

    oldmanram Well-Known Member

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    That's about where I'm at , double earlier gains , now at UP .22
    Chip shortage seems to be the headlines along with inflation , and Boeing having a wiring problem in some 737 max's .
    We'll see how it all plays out after they come back from lunch.
    OW one thing I did see , Robinhood has added 3 million new users a month , for the last 3 month's , over 9 million new users this year .
    They added 13 million in all of 2020
    That's a lot of new money
     
    #4917 oldmanram, Apr 9, 2021
    Last edited: Apr 9, 2021
  18. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    GLAD to see that the markets took my aspirational word of the day......STRENGTH....to heart. I have not looked at any market news yet....but....obviously, the market powered into the close today.

    Kicked ass.....with very solid green today. PLUS....a really nice beat of the SP500 by .70%.

    Positions that were very strong:

    MSFT +1.03%
    NKE +1.30%
    HD +1.53%
    Amzn +2.21%
    Appl +2-02%
    Hon +3.24%

    A perfect five day GREEN week for me this week. The newly found STRENGTH in the big cap tech growth stock carried my year to date up to +7.2% year to date. Nice...but not exceptional.....but, way better than where I was 3-5 weeks ago.
     
  19. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    BIG WEEK...for all the averages...except for the Russell. Surprisingly the DOW is having a very good year to date. STILL....far from my favorite Index.

    DOW year to date +10.44%
    DOW for the week +1.95%

    SP500 year to date +9.92%
    SP500 for the week +2.71%

    NASDAQ100 year to date +7.42%
    NASDAQ100 for the week +3.87%

    NASDAQ year to date +7.85%
    NASDAQ for the week +3.12%

    RUSSELL year to date +13.60
    RUSSELL for the week (-0.46%)

    KILLER week.....the POWER of long term investing. A GREAT way to go into the weekend and than the next week. Speaking of next week.....it is the kick-off for earnings with the BANK STOCKS up to bat first. I am looking for BIG THINGS from the first quarter earnings.
     
  20. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    YES......there is NO inflation. But I STILL like this little article on the topic.

    Why we shouldn't be so worried about runaway inflation in the US

    https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/09/perspectives/inflation-fears-us-economy-covid/index.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "With the federal government spending trillions to blunt the pandemic's economic damage, and the national debt mounting as a result, Wall Street and Washington are concerned about a 1970s-style surge of unrestrained inflation. What's more, rising gasoline costs, semiconductor chip shortages and the Suez Canal tanker incident have caused both businesses and consumers to worry about rising prices. But is this anxiety justified? Should Americans brace for a 1970s redux?

    Based on the current factors at play, fears of dire, long-lasting inflation are likely overblown. Here are five reasons why:

    Prices are rising in areas that are pandemic-specific and will likely be transitory

    Backlogs for popular pandemic-era goods — like lawn care tools, furniture, fitness equipment and laptops — are putting upward pressure on producer prices. And a pre-pandemic shortage of shipping containers, which hold clothes and machinery, among other goods, is only adding fuel to the fire. While many businesses are trying to absorb mounting costs, at some point they reach thresholds where they must pass those costs onto consumers.

    Nonetheless, a hair salon or movie theater does not necessarily need a global supply chain to operate. So, as households shift spending away from goods and back to in-person services when the pandemic subsides later this year, these supply chain woes — and the high costs associated with them — should fade.

    Sticker shock for services as things get back to normal is likely — but that too shall pass

    As state and local governments continue reopening economies and vaccines are broadly distributed, consumers will naturally gravitate toward services that they can enjoy outside of the home. Strong demand for travel-related services, including hotels and flights, entertainment, such as sporting events and concerts, and even personal care, like pedicures, might push consumer prices upward.

    However, hot-commodity goods during the pandemic — for example, video game systems, meat and outdoor furniture — will likely see their prices weaken. That would help offset rising services prices. And once consumers get their fill of in-person services — one can only go to an amusement park so many times — those prices should also retreat as demand subsides.

    Savings from remote work might counter the inflationary effects of rising minimum wages

    Several state governments are raising minimum wages for the lowest-paid workers. Additionally, some policymakers are pursuing a hike in the federal minimum wage rate. Higher wages typically lead to higher consumer prices as better-paid workers demand more goods and services. Meanwhile, industries employing many low-wage workers, including hotels, restaurants and tourism, as well as companies in states with many minimum-wage workers, will likely pass higher costs onto customers.

    However, the advent of remote work as a viable option for businesses and workers should help offset some of the minimum wage hike effects at a macro level. Employees can save on commuting costs and potentially move to cheaper locales. Meanwhile, businesses can save money on office space and hire workers from lower-cost jurisdictions — expenses that are typically passed onto consumers.

    Factors that have kept inflation at bay over the last 20 years remain alive and well

    Inflation in the United States has largely not been a problem in recent decades for many reasons that still hold: Automation lowers the cost of labor; higher depreciation as technology becomes obsolete more quickly has led to more business investments in R&D, software and patents, which may cost less than investments in buildings and equipment; the rise of e-commerce platforms has generated more competition for a broader set of goods that keeps prices low; and firms relying increasingly on contract employees have dampened wages. Consumers' desire for value from big box stores, discount retailers and outlets, along with streaming content, have also helped to keep inflation at bay.

    The factors are not only domestic. Globalization (e.g., international supply chains, outsourcing) and the likely continued relative strength of the US dollar will work to keep prices down. Indeed, Americans benefit from the low cost of goods sourced from abroad. For example, a US company assembling cell phones in China, where it costs less to manufacture them, lowers the device's price tag for American consumers.

    Central banks, including the Fed, are not sounding the inflation alarm

    The Fed views higher prices as a signal of a healthy US economy. It is determined to allow consumer price inflation, excluding food and energy, to rise above its 2% target for some time before raising interest rates, according to its monetary policy statement. Tolerating a bit more inflation also gives the Fed time to meet its broad and inclusive full-employment mandate: Not raising rates to dampen inflation helps spur job-producing economic growth.

    More Markets & Economy Perspectives


    Consumers' one-year inflation expectations as measured by The Conference Board are picking up, which means they expect higher prices 12 months from now compared to today. However, if longer-term inflation expectations (usually three to five years) remain near historical lows, then the Fed probably will stay the course of keeping interest rates low for longer.
    Still, the Fed, like other central banks, should remain vigilant about a different type of inflation: asset price inflation. Home prices spanning the globe are spiking amid super-low rates, and stock market valuations are reaching new heights. Asset price inflation risks threatening financial stability and economic well-being.

    While consumers can expect pockets of higher inflation in the next year or so, several factors make it less likely that it will spiral out of control. Indeed, should prices head skyward, the Fed does stand ready with the proper tools to bring them back down to Earth and avoid a 1970s revival.

    MY COMMENT

    NOT concerned in the slightest......I have seen this sort of inflation fear mongering for the past 35 years. My opinion...this is just more of the same. If it happens...it happens. REGARDLESS....investors will do just fine. The general economy.....is not....the stock markets.
     

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