The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    STILL....hanging in there today....just like the open. Averages UP except for the poor DOW. We just have to navigate the last couple of hours.....without some ridiculous story line, or rumor, or narrative, or program trading,..... freaking out the markets into a late day FADE.
     
  2. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Interesting perspectives here. :cool:

    I ignore the losses of 2008/2009, since the market recovered and our stocks continued to distribute without reduction.

    On the other hand, I started picking up a couple of REITs later in 2009 when P/E ratios were ridiculously low. REITs were widely despised, at that time. Those REIT positions were heavily fortified in 2010 and 2012 with P/E ratios still below 4. Those REITs changed the course of our life for the better.

    I look at it as us owning a portion of a few thousand pieces of real estate, along with several thousand partners. The companies have taken good care of us and we have been good partners to them. The stock market is just a mechanism by which we brokered these acquisitions.

    These different perspectives are interesting. This is where the forum value is, IMO.
     
  3. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    For sure, I wasn't even arguing about which is better to do. I'd say that's fairly obviously investing for the very, very large majority of people. I was just "arguing" about which is more "crash-protected"
     
  4. oldmanram

    oldmanram Well-Known Member

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    AMEN , to your post WXYZ, I was thinking back to my brother and I , 1 year apart in age, but at opposite ends of the spectrum in soooo many other ways. I spent my first 20 working with my father , a very successful businessman, and then went out on my own. He spent the first 20 out on his own, then came to work in the family business the last 20 years. In the end we both ended up in the same place (Financially and in other ways) and now we are ALL together in the same office.
    ps: My Dad at 91 years old still comes into the office twice a week, just to check on us. STILL !!!
     
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  5. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I don't want to be the guy standing at the "Welcome to Las Vegas" sign, explaining to people leaving the city they haven't made the money they claim to have made. We know it is near certain a tiny, infinitesimal, percentage of them actually did make money while the rest are deluded. On the other hand, believing it's possible to cut through people's delusions is, itself, a form of delusion.
     
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  6. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    THIS is really all that matters. It’s your money and how it works for you. I ALWAYS keep my business to myself when it comes to social life... non of my friends and even some family know what my net worth is- and I’m glad it’s that way... I don’t wear fancy clothes or watches... I drive an old car (and keep the Tesla in NY for when we visit) and we don’t live a fancy lifestyle. My investments and savings are simply validation of my accomplishments in life. I was born to a poor family and lived a... different... lifestyle than others.... Throughout my life I learned to appreciate what Ive earned. I’m not cheap and I will go dine in a five star restaurant and fly business class- comfort comes first- but I don’t do this to show off or brag. That’s why I’m happy where my money is today. Sometimes it seems like it came TOO easy... but then I remind myself of where I came from and what I accomplished.....
    I’m a long term investor and a full time worker... I never gambled in my life and I never risked losing it all..... this was a sloooooooow march to the top and I always practiced good morals, faith and hunger to learn.... and I believe that the best is as they yet to come.
    Up 1.68 today. Breaking a brand new record... sitting in the front yard of our new property as I write this and thinking to myself..... how the fuck am I gonna mow this 1 acre of land now?????
     
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  7. oldmanram

    oldmanram Well-Known Member

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    Congrats on the new high Zukodany , your last line made me think of something, sometimes we have goals, we work hard for them, scrimping saving, and when we achieve them, it's like , HUH , the view from here is different than I imagined.

    Wifes account UP .71%
    My accounts UP .20%

    Everything green except Micron giving back some gains from last week DN 3.6% today

    ps: Don't be like me and have to do everything yourself, google lawncare, then sit back and smell the roses, instead of cutting your hands up pruning them. :)
     
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  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    You have to buy a riding lawn mower......LOL. You have done well. It is good to keep things under the radar. I like to do that....because.....I prefer to be underestimated by people.

    AND.....a really nice day today.....nicely green. I am up to 7 green days in a row. AND....a good beat of the SP500 by .38% today.

    As the week progresses we will start to get a little bit of a feel for earnings.
     
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  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Tomorrow is the day of the Coinbase IPO (direct listing). I anticipate buying about 120 shares. I will buy on the opening day......if the price allows me to do so. This is SIMPLY a....short to medium term MOMENTUM trade. My holding time will.....hopefully be 1-30 days. I need some MAD-MONEY and with my account well over the prior all time high and the market doing well.....I have plenty of leeway to buy and try to take home some quick money. I am WELL AWARE that this is an extremely speculative short term trade. I view the possible down side potential as being......a LOSS of between $10,000 and $15,000. I am willing to take that downside short term risk.

    Coinbase reference price set at $250 per share ahead of Nasdaq debut

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coinbase-reference-price-set-250-205421091.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "NEW YORK (Reuters) - Nasdaq on Tuesday set a reference price of $250 per share for Coinbase Global Inc, projecting a value for the largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange at $49.19 billion ahead of its landmark stock market debut on Wednesday.

    The reference price is not an offering price for investors to purchase shares, but rather a benchmark for performance when the stock starts trading the exchange on Wednesday.

    Coinbase shares are set to start trading under the "COIN" symbol. The opening public price will be determined by buy and sell orders collected by the Nasdaq from broker-dealers.

    The reference price is below the $343.58 volume-weighted average price Coinbase's shares were trading at privately in the first quarter of this year.

    If shares trade hands at or above the reference price, Coinbase would be valued at more than six times the $8 billion the company was worth in its last private fundraising round in 2018.

    By comparison, the market capitalization of New York Stock Exchange-parent company Intercontinental Exchange is around $66 billion.

    Coinbase has opted to go public through a direct listing rather than a traditional initial public offering. This means the company will not raise any money and existing investors are not bound by lock-up restrictions on when they can divest their holdings following the market debut.

    The option to go public is much less common than a traditional IPO but is gaining traction. Previous high-profile direct listings include Spotify Technology SA in 2018, Slack Technologies Inc in 2019 and Roblox Corp in 2021.

    Founded in 2012, Coinbase is one of the best-known cryptocurrency platforms globally and has more than 56 million users who trade various virtual coins, including bitcoin, ethereum and XRP.

    Bitcoin hit a record of $62,741 on Tuesday, extending its 2021 rally to new heights a day before the Coinbase listing.

    MY COMMENT

    I am committed to list any trade or change that I make on here. This is no exception. By putting this up here....I AM NOT ENCOURAGING OR RECOMMENDING ANY ONE ELSE TO DO THIS. PLEASE......
     
    #4989 WXYZ, Apr 13, 2021
    Last edited: Apr 13, 2021
  10. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    @WXYZ, i need to ask you to go back to my investor vs trader poll and amend your response in order to maintain the integrity of said poll. thank you.
     
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  11. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    Yup next week we’re gonna have to make a decision between the Cub Cadet or the John Deere.... I’m thinking the former.... we’re gonna get a landscaper there first cause the grass was already out of control when we secured the property... and then it’s me sitting on the mower and getting that grass trimmed... from now till... we move to the next property ;)
    Don’t think I’m gonna be mulching but we’ll see!
     
  12. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I dont pitch any particular brand but i will say hydrostatic drive is a killer app for mowers. Our JD has had a couple of minor problems and it doesnt have near the quality of the honda before it but it cut the mowing time in half with the hydrostatic drive.
     
  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    WELL....when I lived in the country we had a REAL tractor (John Deere) and front loader....but....we also had two garden tractors for mowing and pulling a sprayer. My preference was John Deere. The trick is to get one with a big mower deck.......ours had a double deck with two blades....the extra size saves a lot of time mowing. All the attachments...just a waste of time. A good mower will leave very little in clippings......and they are good for the grass anyway.

    I liked to mow and so did my wife. Our place took about 4-5 hours to mow all the mowed areas. I also liked to do tractor work......very relaxing to sit on a tractor and shred grass in fields. We had a Brush Hog shredder (Rotary cutter) for horse fields and other areas. Yes to the hydrostatic. Over the years we had two different John Deere's and a Cub Cadet. We also had a big commercial zero turn mower with a Cummins diesel motor.....worst mower we ever had. It was way too heavy and crushed down the grass and wore it down to dirt. It was also a nightmare to maintain.

    WELL....Emmett....I have done a trade of two on here in the past....the Apple split.....the pandemic. Once in a while under very specific situations I will do a momentum trade....perhaps once every year or two. I am torn on this one.....very dangerous. That is why I am willing to live with a 10-20% loss if I have to.
     
    #4993 WXYZ, Apr 13, 2021
    Last edited: Apr 13, 2021
  14. oldmanram

    oldmanram Well-Known Member

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    Some good advice there , especially about deck size, bigger is better , sorry couldn't resist
    The JD is pricey, but overall slightly better machines. And when you move on to your next place
    A used JD has better resale value , or a very tempting "cherry on the top" for a potential home buyer.
    See how easy we can spend YOUR money ;)
     
  15. Rustic1

    Rustic1 Well-Known Member

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    A lot of us can work both sides of the market. I understand your reasoning for trying to draw in the new people, as the BUFFETTS/MUNGERS are a dying breed. The modern World has many tools to use. The old folks are like the senile old man arguing with a sign post. :cool2: Please keep posting in this excellent thread, it needs more than the regular 3-4 that try to keep it alive. :D

    Others like me will trade and keep making money with options and crypto. :biggrin:

    Maybe this sign will help your cause.
    Screenshot_20210414-070621_Gallery.jpg
     
  16. gtrudeau88

    gtrudeau88 Well-Known Member

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    Trading versus investing, long term versus medium term versus short term, who the heck cares? Everyone is responsible for their own money and as long as one achieves their financial goals without lying, cheating, or screwing others out of their own money, who cares how they do it? Rustic1 meets his goals by trading, WXYZ meets his goals by long term investing; the goals are met which is what matters. And furthermore, why can't one employ more than one approach concurrently? Why can't I see one stock as a long term position and see another stock as a sweet short term trade and do both?

    I don't have the mind, I don't think, to be successful as a short term or swing trader. But I am doing OK (maybe not great) as a medium term guy with some long term thinking thrown in.

    Lastly, what Tormented said above is possibly right on the money regarding downturns and I would like to see WXYZ and other long termers respond to it.
     
  17. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    This ENTIRE THREAD is a response to what T0rm3nted said....LOL.......250 pages with the research, findings, academic studies, 50-100 years of investing data and results, analysis, etc, etc, etc.

    I see that the banks did their job so far today with their earnings.....good open. I dont own any of them so I am not going to post their results.
     
    #4997 WXYZ, Apr 14, 2021
    Last edited: Apr 14, 2021
  18. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I see that is is.......at least right now....going to be one of those days. One of those days....where the averages are ALL up nicely....but.....just about the entire TECH universe if DOWN. With that DRAG on the averages......they must be REALLY STRONG today.
     
  19. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    HERE....is where we are today in the markets.....it will be interesting to see if the tech side makes a come-back today as we go through the day.

    Stock market news live updates: Stocks trade higher amid big bank earnings

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-april-14-2021-221629852.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Stocks ticked up on Wednesday, with traders digesting a slew of earnings results from big banks that largely topped expectations. The Dow set a fresh record high as shares of Goldman Sachs advanced after the company reported better-than-expected quarterly results.

    The S&P 500 traded slightly higher, after the index jumped to record intraday and closing highs on Tuesday, and the Nasdaq edged up to break back above 14,000.

    Investors received earnings results from the banks including JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Goldman Sachs (GS) Wednesday morning, which set the tone for the rest of first-quarter earnings reports in the weeks to come. JPMorgan Chase's investment banking and stock and bond trading revenues handily exceeded estimates, and the firm's profits got a boost after the bank released $5.2 billion in loan loss reserves, which had been shored up in case of souring loans during the pandemic. Goldman Sach's results handily exceeded estimates on booming investment banking and trading revenue.

    For S&P 500 companies overall, Wall Street analysts are expecting a surge in corporate profits versus last year, with a firming economic backdrop and strong consumer spending set to boost companies' results.

    We could see upwards of 30% year-over-year earnings growth in the first quarter. That would be the most we’ve seen since coming out of the financial crisis," Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, told Yahoo Finance. Expectations are for about 25% earnings growth in the first quarter. And let’s not forget in the previous two quarters what happened: massive, massive beats.

    "That bar is a little bit higher, but we think once again corporate America will step up and justify a lot of the valuations that we see here," he added.

    Other risk assets also traded near all-time highs. Bitcoin prices (BTC-USD) reached a record high of more than $64,000, with cryptocurrency exchange platform Coinbase (COIN) poised to go public in a direct listing on Wednesday.

    7:31 a.m. ET: Goldman Sachs shares jump after easily beating Q1 estimates, driven by surge in investment banking, trading revenue
    Goldman Sachs posted first-quarter revenue that more than doubled over last year, with investment banking and trading business activity surging in the first three months of the year.

    Net revenue of $17.70 billion came in well ahead of the $12.55 billion expected, and the prior year's $8.74 billion. The beat came amid a 47% jump in trading revenue, with equity sales and trading alone growing 68%. Earnings per share of $18.60 were also much better than the $10.06 anticipated, and net interest income of $1.48 billion grew 13% over last year.

    “We have been working hard alongside our clients in preparation for a world beyond the pandemic and a more stable economic environment," Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said in a statement. "Our businesses remain very well positioned to help our clients reposition for the recovery, and that strength is reflected in the record revenues and earnings achieved this quarter.

    7:18 a.m. ET Wednesday: JPMorgan Chase Q1 revenue tops estimates, with earnings boosted by $5.2 billion in released loan loss reserves
    JPMorgan Chase (JPM) posted first-quarter adjusted revenue that handily exceeded expectations, and beat estimates on earnings per share as the company released billions of dollars worth of provisions shored up during the pandemic to guard against souring loans.

    Adjusted revenue of $33.12 billion grew 14% over last year, with each of investment banking, fixed income sales and trading and equities sales and trading revenue easily topping estimates. On the bottom line, earnings per share of $4.50 were better than the $3.01 expected, according to Bloomberg consensus data, with these results boosted by $5.2 billion in net reserve releases. However, guidance for net interest income – or profits from the firm's core lending business – came in light at $55 billion, or slightly below the $55.12 billion expected.

    JPMorgan's results reflect “strong underlying performance across our businesses, partially driven by a rapidly improving economy," CEO Jamie Dimon said in a press statement. "These results include a benefit from credit reserve releases of $5.2 billion that we do not consider core or recurring profits. We believe our credit reserves of $26 billion are appropriate and prudent, all things considered.”

    Dimon added that the firm's consumer and community banking business segment has returned to pre-pandemic levels, with consumer spending rising 14% over the first quarter of 2019. Travel and entertainment expenses have grown more than 50% in March compared to February, he added.

    “With all of the stimulus spending, potential infrastructure spending, continued Quantitative Easing, strong consumer and business balance sheets and euphoria around the potential end of the pandemic, we believe that the economy has the potential to have extremely robust, multi-year growth," Dimon said."

    MY COMMENT

    AS EXPECTED......earnings are going to BOOM. I dont know why anyone would have thought otherwise......NONE of the big corporations in our economy shut down.....NONE. It was just the little guy....the small businesses....that got hammered and strong armed by government during the pandemic. MAGICALLY........none of the rules applied to the corporate world.

    It is interesting that INITIALLY today the take on the bank earnings was that they were NOT having much of an impact on the markets. AND....poor Bed Bath & Beyond....just a disaster. It is a TYPICAL bank earnings week......the best thing I can say about it is......it is good to get it over with and just move on.
     
  20. gtrudeau88

    gtrudeau88 Well-Known Member

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    Sorry WXYZ. Haven't had time to read 250 pages. I'm only through the last 50 or so. :biggrin:
     

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