Another very fine article from Fisher.....I tend to usually agree with what they put out there. UK GDP and a Lesson on How Markets Work Does a report showing how the UK economy fared under lockdown mean much now that restrictions are lifting? https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/marketminder/uk-gdp-and-a-lesson-on-how-markets-work (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "One of the central tenets of our investment philosophy, which we have mentioned here often, is that we think stock markets are forward-looking, discounting expected events over the next several months. Economic data, by contrast, are backward-looking. Data released now reflect activity that happened in a previous month, quarter or year. Therefore, if you are looking at economic data for clues into what stock markets will do, we think you are probably mistaken, as prices likely already reflect that earlier economic activity—and have for some time. To see this clearly, here is a shining, timely example: February’s UK GDP, released Tuesday. Most countries release GDP quarterly, but the UK—like Canada—produces a monthly report, giving more insight into the economy’s short-term twists and turns. That has been particularly illuminating during the pandemic, as it gives a more detailed look at the lockdowns’ varying economic impacts. The third UK lockdown took effect in early January, and that month’s GDP fell -2.2% from December.[ii] But in February, there was a slight recovery. GDP grew 0.4% m/m, even as strict nationwide business restrictions remained.[iii] To us, that is a noteworthy sign of the country’s economic resilience, which we think probably benefits many people at a personal level. But to stocks, it is very old news. That would be true of any month’s GDP, but something that happened the day before the release ties a bow on it: Businesses began reopening from that third lockdown. That reopening has been scheduled since February 22 , when Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced it. Also widely known: The government’s plans to have all remaining restrictions lifted by June 21, provided the virus doesn’t escalate again. For nearly two months, the government’s reopening timetable has been common knowledge—a fact investors were likely well aware of as they bought or sold. This is what we refer to when we say markets anticipate expected events. So, put yourself in a British investor’s shoes today. What is a bigger factor as you decide whether to own stocks: the knowledge that UK GDP rose a bit in February, or the knowledge that economic activity could very well be back to normal in a little more than two months? Which of those items is likelier to have more influence over corporate profits and shareholder returns over the next year? If you picked the forward-looking option, we think you are headed in the correct direction. The future—generally much further than the next two months—is where investors generally look; therefore, we think it is where markets generally look. We like economic reports (obviously—we write about them a lot).[iv] They are interesting and help us identify long-term trends, which can then help us put expectations in context. So in our opinion, they are useful. But on their own, we don’t think they are a solid basis for making investment decisions. They are just a backward-looking confirmation of events that investors have already lived through and, in our view, showed up in stock prices long ago." MY COMMENT NOW.....this is COMMON SENSE. Every day we see all sorts of media comment on this or that economic data.......yet......most is nothing more than telling us about some piece of data that reflects what happened a month or two or three ago. Than the writer goes into all sorts of OPINION GYMNASTICS...trying....to push some point of view that what happened 1-3 months ago is important for the.....NOW....and the....FUTURE. Of course....the professionals....the big banks.....and anyone with reason and common sense.......was seeing what that.....hindsight data......is saying.....as it happened. AND.......most economic data.....is IRRELEVANT to long term investors. It is just a hindsight snapshot of a moment in time that is in the past by the time it is released. Start chasing after it and you will be investing based on YESTERDAY. I do agree that it can reflect longer term trends.......but......it is JUST the GENERAL ECONOMY. BUT....as a long term investor I do not invest based on economic trends.....I am investing based on a particular business or group of businesses that I own.
Once again....as usual.....I do not follow and have actually NEVER seen Cramer.....but....here is a good summary of what we will see in earnings next week. A good number of BIG CAP companies that reflect a diverse view of the economy. Cramer’s week ahead: The impact of inflation and the reopening as earnings season accelerates https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/16/cra...ng-impact-of-inflation-and-the-reopening.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points Next week marks the beginning of the real earnings season, CNBC’s Jim Cramer said. “We’re actually going to get the impact of both inflation and the reopening,” the “Mad Money” host said. “I think the former’s a big negative, but the latter’s so positive that the ball can stay in the air, ready for a beautiful stuff over the net and to the floor,” he said. CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Friday that the “real earnings” season will get underway Monday after the major banks posted their quarterly results earlier this week. “We’re actually going to get the impact of both inflation and the reopening,” he said on “Mad Money.” “I think the former’s a big negative, but the latter’s so positive that the ball can stay in the air, ready for a beautiful stuff over the net and to the floor.” Cramer gave his game plan for the week ahead. Earnings-per-share projections are based on FactSet estimates: Monday: Coca-Cola, United Airlines, IBM Coca-Cola Q1 2021 earnings release: before market; conference call: 8:30 a.m. Projected EPS: 50 cents Projected revenue: $8.68 billion “I worry that Coca-Cola’s pure beverage with no snacking business,” Cramer said, “but I still expect a good number from them and a great story about food service reopenings.” United Airlines Q1 2021 earnings release: after market; conference call: Tuesday at 10:30 a.m. Projected losses per share: $7.05 Projected revenue: $3.27 billion “If it’s anything like Delta, you’re going to hear about the coming boom,” he said, adding the stock can continue to rally. “I think it’s the right place to be.” IBM Q1 2021 earnings release: after market; conference call: 5 p.m. Projected EPS: $1.69 Projected revenue: $17.32 billion “What will the new IBM do, the one that kept the fast-growing businesses led by Red Hat? I think it’s too early to tell, but the stock’s been hanging in there,” Cramer said. Tuesday: Abbott Laboratories, Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, Netflix Abbott Laboratories Q1 2021 earnings release: before market; conference call: 9:30 a.m. Projected EPS: $1.27 Projected revenue: $10.69 billion “Abbott’s done such great work on Covid diagnostics … that it’s hard to believe they won’t hit it out of the park,” Cramer said. Johnson & Johnson Q1 earnings 2021 release: 6:45 a.m.; conference call: 8:30 a.m. Projected EPS: $2.34 Projected revenue: $22 billion “J&J’s gotten more controversial, though I think it’s been unfairly punished by a CDC that seems more intent on scaring the public out of getting a vaccination than actually getting people vaccinated with some safety,” he said. “I bet J&J has a fantastic quarter and reveals an even better pipeline.” Procter & Gamble Q3 2021 earnings release: before market; conference call: 8:30 a.m. Projected EPS: $1.19 Projected revenue: $17.97 billion “The Street’s actually worried about this one. First, there are tough comparisons versus the stay-at-home numbers they were putting up a year ago,” the host said. “Second, they’re coping with real inflation from plastics to surfactants [and] freight.” Netflix Q1 2021 earnings release: 4 p.m.; conference call: 6 p.m. Projected EPS: $2.97 Projected revenue: $7.14 billion “This should be fun. Netflix typically beats the numbers and the principals always seem to have a great time talking about their business,” he said. “Even the Netflix conference call has good content.” Wednesday: Verizon, Lam Research, Chipotle Verizon Q1 2021 earnings release: 7:30 a.m.; conference call: 8:30 a.m. Projected EPS: $1.29 Projected revenue: $32.47 billion “I’m beginning to believe it’s stuck there, making it feel like more of a bond than a stock,” Cramer said. “If you’ve gotta own a phone company, I have to tell you I prefer T-Mobile.” Lam Research Q3 2021 earnings release: after market; conference call: 5 p.m. Projected EPS: $6.61 Projected revenue: $3.72 billion “Lam is the answer to the semiconductor shortage—they make the equipment needed to manufacture new chips,” he said. “When you hear Taiwan Semi endlessly talking about raising its capital equipment budget, that means that Lam is going to make a fortune.” Chipotle Q1 earnings release: 4:10 p.m.; conference call: 4:30 p.m. Projected EPS: $4.89 Projected revenue: $1.75 billion “I’m betting this paragon of great natural food and phenomenal customer service will blow the doors off the quarter, triggering another round of price target boosts as the analysts desperately try to play catch-up to the stock price,” the host said. Thursday: Union Pacific, Dow, Danaher, Nucor, Intel Boston Beer Union Pacific Q1 2021 earnings release: 8 a.m.; conference call: 8:45 a.m. Projected EPS: $2.06 Projected revenue: $5.05 billion “I think Union Pacific is going to tell a story of making more with less, meaning efficiency galore,” Cramer said. Dow Q1 2021 earnings release: 6 a.m.; conference call: 8 a.m. Projected EPS: $1.12 Projected revenue: $11.09 billion “If PPG is any guide from last night, it should put up some amazing numbers, allowing the stock to break out to the $70s,” he said. Danaher Q1 2021 earnings release: 6 a.m.; conference call: 8 a.m. Projected EPS: $1.76 Projected revenue: $6.29 billion “I can’t wait to see how well they’re doing,” the host said. “I expect a fantastic quarter.” Nucor Q1 2021 earnings release: TBD; conference call: 2 p.m. Projected EPS: $3.05 Projected revenue: $7.18 billion “We’re in an inflationary era, whether it’s transitory or whether it’s not, so Nucor should put up some incredible numbers,” he said. Intel Q1 2021 earnings release: after market; conference call: 5 p.m. Projected EPS: $1.14 Projected revenue: $17.78 billion “I think Pat’s doing a terrific job inspiring people both inside and outside this great institution,” Cramer said. “If the stock gets hit, I’d be a buyer. Gelsinger can’t turn the Intel battleship on a dime, but it will be turned.” Boston Beer Q1 2021 earnings release: 4 p.m.; conference call: 5 p.m. Projected EPS: $2.55 Projected revenue: $477 million “I think the shorts will be leaning against Boston Beer, as they always do, because of the [spiked seltzer] competition,” he said. “My view? The category’s growing so rapidly, the parent of Sam Adams should do just fine, thank you.” Friday: Honeywell, American Express Honeywell Q1 2021 earnings release: before market; conference call: 8:30 a.m. Projected EPS: $1.80 Projected revenue: $8.08 billion “Honeywell’s becoming a software-as-a-building-service play, not to mention an incredible health care company. I think the numbers can go higher still,” Cramer said. American Express Q1 earnings release: 7 a.m.; conference call: 8:30 a.m. Projected EPS: $1.61 Projected revenue: $9.21 billion “It’s all about gauging the power of the great reopening. With its combination of small business … credit, travel and entertainment lines, we should be able to get a good read on the strength of the recovery going forward,” he said." MY COMMENT I expect that MOST.....if not all....the numbers above will be BLOWN OUT when the real earnings are released. The adjectives will be flowing. Does that mean all will go up in price.....NO. the markets will care MORE about the forward looking statements. AND.....as usual....how the media and analysts choose to parse the language will have the largest.....very short term....impact. The numbers WILL be confirmation that the re-opening is HERE and HAPPENING. As to......yes the usual....inflation....I still doubt that it becomes an issue...as usual. In any event I am not going to start manipulating my investments and investment style based on some UNPREDICTABLE future event......that has NOT happened over the past 32+ years.......in spite of the constant predictions that it was going to be an issue. The coming inflation has been the.....FED FANTASY ISSUE.....of the past 32+ years.....and....their reaction to what has proven to be simply an......IMAGINARY ISSUE.....over that time, has probably caused far more damage to the economy than if we had actually had some inflation.
This is a beginners question and my first time investing. What do I have to do in order to invest in a companies dividend? Is it as simple as just investing in the stock and then turning on the DRIP option? I know it's a dumb question I just assumed there would be an actual "divident" option with my broker. Full disclose I'm currently signed up with "Public"
As expected. All talk and no walk. And by my kind, you mean those who see and call out a pathetic person drumming up attention due to his insecurities? Yep, that'd be me. Your fantasies are about as real as your successes. And judging from your post, you are still alone in your mom's basement with your little bird. Enjoy it. I bet the women (or men) really dig it.
Smart question. The dividend paying stock will route money into the account in which you own the stock. It happens automatically. You don't have to do anything. Many brokers offer a DRIP (dividend reinvestment plan) facility. Sometimes, people like me call these a "synthetic DRIP". If you enrol in a DRIP at your brokerage, they will purchase (from an exchange) as many additional shares as they can with each dividend, leaving the remainder in your account as cash. Some brokerages can create fractional shares but mine doesn't and I'm not all that familiar with this behavior. There is no fee for this service at any brokerage I'm aware of but I'm not knowledgeable about all of them so I cannot say for sure. But, there is another DRIP. Some companies offer a DRIP. This is separate from any DRIP offered at a brokerage. People like me sometimes call these "corporate DRIPs". It is far more difficult to enrol in a corporate DRIP. You must send a copy of a share certificate to the registrar of record for the company. There are a couple of other minor things needed. Plenty of information is available regarding enrolment in corporate DRIPs, on the web. Once a corporate DRIP is set up, the company will distribute shares, instead of cash, that will be routed to your account. Keep in mind, not every type of account is eligible for corporate DRIP but I believe any non-registered trading account can do it. With a corporate DRIP, you do not receive any money. They issue the dividend, right down to the penny, with fractional shares. These shares come directly from the corporation and were never on the secondary market. Shares are created specifically for this purpose. Corporate DRIPs also pay a premium, typically. If you read the DRIP documentation for any given company, they may offer an additional 2~5% share value over the spot price at issue. Corporate DRIPs are only really worth the trouble if you have either a somewhat large amount of money in one stock or you plan to hold for a period of many years.
I wasn't necessarily trying to be spot on with likely percentiles. You mentioned in an earlier post that you average 10 to 15% a year and I assume our trading opponent would say he gets at least 20% and would say he never has a bad trade. We know that's likely bull but I went with it. My point was that a successful trader by definition has more taxes to pay on short term capital gains than a long termer.
Not sure what you are referencing...but.....my LONG TERM average total return is between 14% and 15% per year. My GOAL....which I usually BEAT and am BEATING is 10% a year total return...long term average. I am satisfied if I double my money every 7 years which is a total return of 10% per year. I try to set a realistic goal.....which actually is equal to the long term average of the SP500.....so it is NOT a LOW goal. The fact that I am handily beating that goal is HIGHLY abnormal and reflects many stocks like MSFT, SBUX, NKE, COST, HD, and others that I got in very early when they were young and achieved large ABNORMAL gains. Holding stocks like these that were purchased when the companies were young can SKEW returns for a lifetime......in a GOOD WAY. My current returns for the past 10-15 years......usually....are a bit over or a bit under the SP500....depending on the year. I KNOW that I am STILL generally beating the SP500 since my individual stocks have grown to and remain about 55% to 58% of my total portfolio and the funds are about 45% to 42% of the total portfolio. The two sides of the portfolio started at about 50/50. So the fact that the stock side has grown to be a higher percentage and since the fund side performs EQUAL to the SP500.....I know that I am outperforming the SP500. If you wanted to bother.....I am sure this thread contains posts that have my total return figures for 2018, 2019, and 2020. I started this thread in October of 2018....so that would be the first year of data in this thread.
My S&P 500 and Nasdaq daily and weekly charts. ^GSPC Daily https://drive.google.com/file/d/149FCXfZvbF3eWpJZYBv0uSt5x_hpQl2c/view?usp=sharing ^GSPC Weekly https://drive.google.com/file/d/12dYexkZyrKkmzQUCoTxD2CLUYtDbvh2-/view?usp=sharing ^IXIC Daily https://drive.google.com/file/d/17dJ6iJe3RmzpBX1dacC6TJs7RyT9w6WQ/view?usp=sharing ^IXIC Weekly https://drive.google.com/file/d/1LsQLshOSmmba-_bIV_OZkacL9twU9UJ4/view?usp=sharing I also find this CNN indicator pretty useful (Does anyone else use it?)...https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/ All showing very strong current bullish conditions...
Welcome FibbyNacci. YES.....conditions are as BULLISH as I have ever seen them. The ONE thing that is not bullish.......the fact that we are so extremely bullish. The next couple of months......and....the next 1-2 years should be very nice for long term investors with the guts and brains to just ignore the typical and normal corrections that will happen over that time period.
LETS.....play a little FANTASY GAME....since it is the weekend. Lets say someone had a portfolio that contained 12 stocks. ACTUALLY.....the same 12 stocks that I happen to own. All with ONE exception are BIG CAP mainstream companies that have been around for a long time. ALL.....are held by a lot of people and make up a BIG portion of the various indexes. SO......these all....with one exception....being the GUTS of the American stock universe means that these are not SPECULATIVE names. ALL are...."relatively".....safe investments for the long term. SO.....lets say you are a long term investor. How would you have done with this portfolio over the past 5....3....1...years and year to date this year. DISCLOSURE....I am NOT saying that I have held ALL these stocks for all 5 years....or that this post represents my returns over the past 5 years......it is just a game. AND.....past returns do NOT mean anything going forward. BUT.....I was just curious the other night and started to look up data on my portfolio holdings using the Schwab research tools and here is what I found out....stock by stock. Keep in mind that a gain of 100% over any time period means that you would DOUBLE your money. MICROSOFT - Over the past five years this company has gained 368.5%. For three years the gain is 174.4%. One year the gain is 47.28%. Year to date in 2021 the gain to date is 17.23%. AMAZON - A killer company, in my mind the SINGLE most desirable long term hold today. Over the past five years this company has gained 443.1%. For three years the gain is 122.6%. One year the gain is 41.16%. AND...for year to date, 2021, the gain is 4.38%. NIKE - Good old NIKE, the shoe and sports wear company to the WORLD. Over the past five years the company has gained 125.4%. For three years the gains is 103.2%. One year the gain is 55.6%. And, year to date for 2021, the gain is (-5.1%). COSTCO - The overwhelming leader for suburban shopping for families with kids...with a business model that makes a fortune off just their membership fees alone without selling a single product. Over the past five years this company gained 158.4%. For three years the gain is 96.5%. One year the gain is 18.31%. And, year to date the gain is (-1.6%). HOME DEPOT - the most DOMINANT hardware and construction product store in the USA. Over the past five years the gain is 143%. For three years the gain is 151.1%. For one year we see a gain of 64.16%. And, for year to date 2021, there is a gain of 23.51%. APPLE - A big cap STAR that flirts with historic company value. Over the past five years the gain is 388.5%. For three years the gain is 223.8%. One year the gain is 87.2%. And year to date in 2021 there is a gain of 1.11%. GOOGLE - Another big cap growth behemoth stock from the good old USA. Showing a gain for five years of 192.7%. A gain for three years of 111.89%. One year gain is 81.54%. And the year to date for 2021 is 30.25%. SNOW - the one speculative young company in the portfolio...it has NOT been around for five years....and is unproven as a holding at this point in time. One year gain (-8.3%). And year to date in 2021 the gain is (-17.29%). THIS COMPANY ONLY WENT PUBLIC ON SEPTEMBER 16, 2020. SO....this data is based on the past SEVEN MONTHS. NVIDIA - Perhaps the best company for exposure to gaming and chips and AI and self driving vehicles....a favorite of younger investors for a good time now. Over the past five years the gain is 1614.3%. For three years the gain is 178.3%. For one year there is a gain of 341.8%. And, year to date this year a gain of 21.9%. TESLA - Obviously currently a big cap darling, although five years ago or even three years ago much more of a risky buy for many investors. Over the past five years a gain of 1353.3%. For three years the gain is 1174.4%. And, for one year there is a gain of 396.4%. The year to date gain is 4.8%. PROCTOR & GAMBLE - An old fashioned conglomerate...but...in my opinion one of the few that has made a really nice adaptation to the modern era due to good management. The five year gain is 66.8%. For three years the gain is 86%. For one year we see a gain of 12.97%. And year to date, a gain of (-1.36%). HONEYWELL - A nice industrial/consumer product company that incorporates tech in their products and business. For five years the gain is 112.8%. The three year gain is 61.01%. For one year there is a gain of 78.4%. And year to date, 2021 a gain of 9.13%. MY COMMENT Some pretty NICE numbers above. Play with them as you wish. All in all there is a LOT of doubling and tripling of investors money over a very short time reflected in the numbers above. A FANTASY PORTFOLIO......but an example of what can be achieved with long term investing in.....for the most part...USA companies that are EXTREMELY mainstream and standard bearers in the BIG CAP universe. BUT.....you know what they say about....STATISTICS. What I really like about MUCH of this portfolio......many of the companies....AMAZON, NIKE, COSTCO, APPLE, TESLA, PROCTOR & GAMBLE,......and speculative SNOWFLAKE......have a HUGE amount of room to run up. They are lagging year to date this year......in spite of the fact that they are ALL world wide leaders in their business area and are TOTALLY DOMINANT in their products. They are money making machines. Just some weekend fun with numbers.....nothing says any of these companies will equal the past results going forward.
the value of my long term investments, consisting of various mutual funds at any given time, has doubled in the past four years. that accounts for 88% of my portfolio. i play around with the other 12%. starting in 2021 my approach has been scalping. get in for a quick 3-5% and get out. i'm up 2.03% doing that. but, recently i put that 12% in an etf (voo). needed a breather from the timing. it puts me in a foul mood when my profits are wiped out in one trade.
Agree that it looks good for the next several months to a year or so. Lets see what the VIX does, still not hitting lows but continues to fall. Having been bitten by the dot.com bubble, I am concerned about the run up in Nasdaq prices though. Crazy valuations again [COIN IPO at 100 Billion!]... I just don't know if its 1997, 1998 or 1999... dejavu all over again....
Fibby, My concerns as well, I'm tilted towards tech with my portfolio, and it has worked well the past few years , and especially the last 12 month's, I have some S&P funds VOO, VOOG, IUSG , but also am into XLK, ESW (software), and QQQ , it has me a little concerned , but where is the new money going to go ? , young investors getting into the market want the FANG stocks , and historically (past 5 years) the return has been out of this world, but when is it going to stop ??????? I don't know It is interesting with these different sector funds, I also have REIT's and VHT (vanguard health care fund) and some pure dividend stocks , to watch how some are going up and some are going down, depending on the mood of the market on a particular day, or depending on the news that day. Fibby, welcome to the forum I was looking at your charts , looks like you've had some "good timing" lately
1] I am waiting for the VIX to really hit rock bottom (less than 10...9 maybe). Mid-teens look to be a stable market to me... 2] High growth stocks to high new highs (consistently) ...maybe Bitcoin hitting new highs too 3] Watch the CNN Fear-Greed monitor to see if we get to 90+. (this was 90+ in Q4 2019 and into Jan 2020 if I remember...) This 1-2-3 process should take 1-4 months (ish) then I will cash-out into US Dollars and wait until the storm passes. Don't think we are close as yet but things could change... I managed a partial hedge last year and bought back into the market in October-December, got a sell signal in late Feb 2020 and sold 50% of my holdings. I was not sure that the market would turn as much as it did... No perfect solution but I would rather be safe than sorry...
See my reply to TomB16... My charts come with over 15 years of trials and errors but I think I have a reasonable filter/trigger combo going...
Here's an example of why market timing is problematic at best, at least for me. I bought Novavax at $230-$240 and it plummeted to $169 I think following a crap earnings report. Dumb on my part perhaps but I thought the earnings report wouldn't be so bad. It was terrible. It went back up to $220 for no reason (I waited to sell hoping to reach break even) and then it dropped to $180 and hung there for a couple of weeks. I sold it because I didn't think the stock would go back up right away given that the company is still a month off (6-7 weeks at the time) for emergency FDA approval of its covid vaccine. I figured to find something short term to put the money in and grow a little and put the money back into Novavax if I wanted to when FDA approval was getting closer. So I sold it for around ballpark $185 I think, took the loss, and bought into VOO I think. One week after I sold Novavax, the J&J vaccine gets halted due to a blood clot issue and Novavax shoots up again to $227. I am kicking myself because I could have prevented $500 worth of loss had I not gotten impatient with the stock not moving and just waited. I had thought 2 months ago when I bought into Novavax that they would do well once they got approval but I didn't have the patience to wait for that to happen. This is an example of why I may be a lousy short term thinker and I do better with long term investing and thinking. I'm and big picture guy and not a master of lots of detail. I'm much more invested in S&P 500 indexes now than before but I still have significant positions in KMI (up 16%), CSSEP (up 12% now since I just bought more, 18% for the early shares), ENB (11%), GOF (9%), RIO (up 8.5% in 2+ weeks), and I sold KLIC for about a 14% gain (21% gain for early shares). I bought Novavax with macro long term thinking in mind but sold it with very short term thinking in mind. I screwed up. With Novavax I broke every rule I laid out for myself - Buy in small amounts, wait, and back out if not a great purchase. Instead I went all in hoping for a good earnings report. It didn't go the way I expected and had I thought about it (spending money to develop vaccine with no confirmed sellable product yet), I wouldn't have gone in as I did - Sell once losses reach 7-8%. Had I done so my losses would have been minimal instead of almost $800) . I could have reinvested in Novavax had I wished to once the situation appeared to improve. - Sell 50% instead of all at once. Could have gotten some money back on half the shares at least. - Didn't reevaluate the soundness of my original reason for buying the stock in the first place. Since I still think the original reasoning was sound I should have stayed with the stock, at least with say 50% of the investment. - Keep greed and other emotions out of investing decisions. I've largely done so but I surely failed in this regard with Novavax. Learn this lesson everyone on this board. You should have a clearly defined reason for buying something and a clearly defined reason for selling something. I blew it. The only thing I did right was limit my Novavax investment to @7-8% of my account.
WELCOME......LuisAnd. Liked your dividend question. NOW....how many investors are out there today that have NEVER invested outside of a BULL MARKET? I suspect at least perhaps....50%. Here is a nice little article for them......and anyone else. New investors beware: The easy money you made in the stock market probably won't continue https://finance.yahoo.com/news/investors-beware-easy-money-made-151339774.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The past year or so has been one of the oddest periods ever for the stock market and economy, with a rare pandemic shutting down businesses and throwing millions of people out of work. At the same time, the federal government stepped up with unprecedented amounts of stimulus payments, free loans to businesses, eviction moratoriums and other aid — even a delayed deadline for filing income-tax returns. Things are off-the-charts unusual. Yet for novice investors who stuck a toe in the stock market for the first time over the past year or so, it's all they know. And it's not just a few people, either. Armed with stimulus checks and motivated by boredom perhaps, millions of people took the stock market plunge last year — a whopping 15% of all current stock investors got their start in 2020, according to a new Schwab survey. Most must be thinking, "This is easy." Here are some reasons why they should think twice. Don't expect the next down cycle to be so kind. The stock market has climbed steadily for the past 13 months, over which time it has nearly doubled in value. That's rare in itself. But the really unusual part was the extremely short duration of the preceding bear market or downward spiral, which lasted just five weeks. No wonder these first-year investors are more optimistic about near- and long-term results compared to more seasoned market participants, according to the Schwab survey. The newbies also tend to be younger — 35 years old, on average, compared to 48 for people who started investing prior to 2020. They thus can afford to be more optimistic, as they have more time to make up losses. It's true that rising or bull markets always spring from the ashes of bear markets, but usually those preceding downdrafts are much more prolonged. That's the real challenge of investing — dealing with month after month, if not year after year, of falling prices, when disappointment leads to despair and then desperation. If you blinked, you missed the bearish phase of 2020. The next downward cycle won't be so kind. Don't count on so much free money Investing, like gambling, isn't so difficult when you're playing with house money. That was somewhat the case for millions of Americans who received stimulus payments from Uncle Sam or possibly souped-up unemployment benefits. Sure, plenty of people used this cash as financial lifelines, to stay afloat. But others saved their stimulus checks or put them to use in the stock market. In other words, some new investors probably don't fully appreciate that investing involves sacrifice: You forego consumption today in hopes that your money will grow enough over time that higher spending will be possible years down the road. Stimulus checks don't arrive every year, though there is one form of free money that you can tap into on an ongoing basis. These are the matching funds available through workplace 401(k)-style funds that employers ante up to encourage workers to invest. Even the federal government offers limited retired matching funds to lower-income workers, through the widely underappreciated Retirement Savers tax credit (details at irs.gov). It's not a huge sum — a maximum credit of $1,000 annually to the lowest-income workers — but it beats the stimulus money you can count on most years. Don't assume your buddies are right There's a lot of psychology to investing, and one tendency is that people seek out confirming views from friends, family members and colleagues. There's something heartening about having your investing ideas validated by others. The danger is that these other parties might have even less knowledge than you. More than in most years, collaborative investing appears to be on the rise. For example, a survey by MagnifyMoney, a subsidiary of Lending Tree, found that nearly six in 10 investors age 40 or younger are members of online forums such as Reddit. These can be good ways to learn about finances, but they also might lead you astray. "It's great that these communities are introducing a lot of people to investing, which is one of the best ways to build wealth over a lifetime,” said Tendayi Kapfidze, LendingTree's chief economist, in a statement. “A concern is that some are leading to relatively short-term trading concentrated in a few stocks with hopes of getting rich quick.” Usually, investors are better off thinking for themselves and tuning out the "noise" or outside distractions. In part, this is because other people often have different goals, tolerance for risk or other motivations compared to you. Or, they're just wrong. Don't neglect your financial foundation Stock market investing is important — and one of the best ways to build long-term wealth. But it shouldn't come at the expense of other financial needs. Setting up a rainy day fund is one example. It seems simple enough — accumulate money in a savings account to meet emergency car or appliance repairs or to tide you over if you lose your job. Yet many Americans have no personal safety nets — 43% of respondents in a recent study by Clever Real Estate said they have nothing. Dana Sandoval, a certified financial planner at TCI Wealth Advisors in Denver who educates young adults in the nonprofit 3rd Decade program, suggests that everyone set up an emergency fund and take other fundamental steps. These include participating in workplace 401(k) plans if available and gravitating toward Roth Individual Retirement Accounts, which allow for tax-free withdrawals down the road. Understanding the tax implications is important, as stock market profits might be taxed as ordinary income, at lower capital-gain rates or as untaxed withdrawals, depending on the type of account and how long you own an investment. And rather than concentrate your money in a handful of stocks, Sandoval recommends spreading it out through low-cost, diversified mutual funds or exchange-traded funds. The market's strong performance last year, she noted, was driven by a smattering of large, technology-focused companies including Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google. But already, there are signs that the market's leadership is shifting. Besides, pinpointing future hot stocks isn't easy to do, except in hindsight. "Saving more and controlling expenses will have a more predictable positive impact," she said." MY COMMENT I have heard that we are in a NEW ERA.......a NEW NORMAL......THINGS ARE DIFFERENT.....my entire investing life. GUESS WHAT.....they never are. Sooner or later it ends up being the same old NORMAL. In fact....it never was anything different.....it was just a bunch of people telling each other that it is a new normal. AND....usually that means that they are simply new investors and dont have the experience or self awareness as an investor to realize that what they are experiencing has happened many times in the past.
Futures are off at the moment....but.....ASIAN markets are doing very nicely. A small sign for tomorrow. HERE in the USA.....it is going to be all about EARNINGS. I see NOTHING in the news or in the media that is a NEGATIVE....at all. FULL SPEED AHEAD to a good week. Asian shares near 1-1/2 week highs, Bitcoin recoups losses https://finance.yahoo.com/news/asian-shares-near-1-1-005103182.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "SYDNEY (Reuters) - Asian shares hovered near 1-1/2 week highs on Monday helped by expectations monetary policy will remain accommodative the world over, while COVID-19 vaccine rollouts help ease fears of another dangerous wave of coronavirus infections. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was last at 695.59, within striking distance of Friday's high of 696.48 - a level not seen since Apr. 7. The index jumped 1.2% last week and is up 5% so far this year, on track for its third straight yearly gain. "The extremely supportive monetary and fiscal policy setting continues to provide a fertile environment for risk assets," said Rodrigo Catril, senior forex strategist at National Australia Bank. Australian shares were 0.25% higher while New Zealand's benchmark index and South Korea's KOSPI added 0.4% each. Japan's Nikkei eased 0.4%. On Friday, the S&P 500 gained 0.4% to close at a new record high while clocking its sixth straight weekly gain. The Dow finished 0.5%, also at a record high while the Nasdaq climbed 0.1%. E-mini futures for the S&P 500 were down 0.3% in early Asian trading. This week is off to a quiet start with no major data releases slated on Monday. Investors will keep their eyes peeled for earnings from IBM and Coca-Cola later in the day. Netflix reports on Tuesday while later in the week American Airlines and Southwest will be the first major post-COVID cyclicals to post results. The European Central Bank (ECB) meets on Thursday with no changes to rates or guidance expected while preliminary data on factory activity around the globe for April is due on Friday. Elsewhere, Bitcoin, the world's biggest cryptocurrency, recouped most of its losses after plunging as much as 14% on Sunday following speculation the U.S. Treasury may be looking at cracking down on money-laundering activity within digital assets, NAB's Catril said. Data website CoinMarketCap cited a blackout in China’s Xinjiang region, which reportedly powers a lot of bitcoin mining, for the selloff. The retreat in Bitcoin also comes after Turkey's central bank banned the use of cryptocurrencies for purchases on Friday. Bitcoin is up more than 90% year to date, driven by its mainstream acceptance as an investment and a means of payment, accompanied by the rush of retail cash into stocks, exchange-traded funds and other risky assets. In currencies, the U.S. dollar loitered near a four-week low against a basket of currencies as investors increasingly bought into the Federal Reserve's insistence it would keep an accommodative policy stance for a while longer. The dollar index measuring the greenback against a basket of six currencies was unchanged at 91.612, not far from its lowest since March 18 touched on Friday. Against the Japanese yen, the greenback was off a touch at 108.72. The euro was a tad lower at $1.1966 while the British pound eased 0.07% to $1.3820. The risk-sensitive Aussie dollar slipped for a second straight day to be down 0.2% at $0.7715. In commodities, oil prices were down with the Brent slipping 34 cents to $66.43 a barrel and U.S. crude falling 29 cents to $62.84." MY COMMENT Not a superior indicator....but I would rather see ASIAN stock and markets UP.....versus....DOWN. Next up in earnings.....IBM, COKE and NETFLIX. These should set the tone for the week. As I indicated in an earlier post.....there is a good mix of companies reporting in the coming week. They should give us a PREVIEW of the......earnings to come. There is.....no doubt.....MUCH money to be made. So very glad that......I continue to be fully invested for the long term as usual.
