The Long Term Investor

AND......I certainly agree with this take on the markets.....especially the medium term markets.......1-2 years.

CEO of world’s largest money manager: ‘I am incredibly bullish’ on the stock market

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/15/bla...s-hes-incredibly-bullish-on-stock-market.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

Key Points

• BlackRock CEO Larry Fink noted that a host of factors are likely to propel markets higher in the near term, even as the S&P 500 and the Dow hover near record levels.
• “I believe because of monetary stimulus, fiscal stimulus, the cash on the sidelines, earnings, the markets are OK. Markets are going to continue to be stronger,” he predicted.

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said Thursday he’s optimistic about financial markets as the economy attempts to recover from the coronavirus pandemic.

“I am incredibly bullish on the markets,” Fink said in an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” He noted that a host of factors are likely to propel markets higher in the near term, even as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average hover near record levels.

“I believe because of monetary stimulus, fiscal stimulus, the cash on the sidelines, earnings, the markets are OK. Markets are going to continue to be stronger,” said the co-founder and chairman of the world’s largest asset manager.

“A big reason why there’s so much cash sitting on the sidelines during Covid and during remote working our behaviors have changed dramatically,” Fink explained, noting the amount of money many commuters are saving by not going into work.

“Whether the money is coming from a stimulus check or is coming from savings or behavior changes for savings, I think it’s fantastic that we’re seeing more people either investing for the long term or even trading,” he added.

Fink also commented on BlackRock’s institutional client base, which includes pensions funds, saying climate change and inflation risk are bigger concerns to them than cryptocurrencies.

Fink on Covid vaccines, budget deficits
The BlackRock CEO cautioned near-term risks to the stock market do exist. Fink said the arrival of coronavirus variants that dramatically reduce the effectiveness of Covid vaccines is the biggest one.

Long term, Fink said, the government deficit — which has grown as the U.S. Congress passed trillions of dollars worth of pandemic stimulus to support the economy— poses a more of a threat.

“Deficits right now are not a big issue, and that’s what the markets are saying,” Fink contended. “They’re not a big issue because the amount of money that’s on the sideline, the amount of capital that is trying to be put to work.”

However, Fink said the strength of the economy in the years ahead could change his outlook.

“If we don’t have economic growth that is sustainable over the next 10 years — and I’m saying economic growth that is above 3% — our deficits are going to matter, and they are going to elevate interest rates at some time,” he said.

Fink’s comments came after BlackRock reported first-quarter results that beat Wall Street expectations. The company’s assets under management also increased to just over $9 trillion, up 39% from $6.47 trillion in the same quarter a year ago.

MY COMMENT

YES.....more of the same....more positive take on the markets. AND.....in my opinion.....fully justified.

 

I dont ever invest in banks, financial companies or insurance companies. They are too erratic for my taste. I prefer companies that sell ACTUAL products or manufacture goods. Even though this little article focuses on bank earnings....there is a message here that can apply to other companies going forward.

Don’t Buy Big Banks’ Q1 Earnings Bounce
Q1 (and Q2) earnings may be great, but stocks are already looking beyond them.

https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/marketminder/dont-buy-big-banks-q1-earnings-bounce

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Big banks kicked off Q1 earnings season with a bang. Firms reporting this week in the S&P 500’s banks and capital markets categories announced Q1 earnings growth topped 200% y/y, trouncing expectations for more pedestrian double-digit growth rates. This has headlines claiming more gangbusters growth is in store and set to deliver a big positive surprise to stocks. Apologies for raining on a parade, but we think they are in for some disappointment. Not the bull-market-ending kind, but the kind that doesn’t fuel lasting outperformance in more cyclical stocks.

Banks’ blowout growth is wonderful news, but it is backward looking—and has questionable staying power. Simply, markets pre-priced all the economic activity that drove these earnings. Thinking they are predictive is backward. After last year’s March 23 low, the S&P 500 hit new highs in August, preceding economic recovery well in advance. The latest Q4 GDP figure still stands -1.2% below its Q4 2019 pre-pandemic high.[ii] While economists expect expansion this year, that—and its impact on bank earnings along the way—is old news to stocks.

The drivers behind Q1’s bank earnings are well known at this point—and they don’t look sustainable to us. For one, base effects from last year dominated. During Q1 2020, as lockdowns took effect, Financials’ earnings fell -40.6% y/y.[iii] That set up a low base, which alone virtually assured triple-digit growth rates as earnings return toward—and exceed—pre-pandemic levels. With 15 of 65 S&P 500 Financials reporting so far, their blended aggregate Q1 2021 earnings per share (EPS)—combining actual results with remaining consensus expectations—stand at $11.92, which would be 116% y/y over last year’s $5.53.[iv] But pre-pandemic, Financials’ quarterly EPS averaged $9.16 in 2019.[v] In this light, Q1 EPS more than doubling year over year seems much less extraordinary. Growth now has more to do with 2020’s devastation than anything in 2021, besides normalcy resuming.

Then too, this quarter’s earnings had some one-off padding. That includes record M&A and SPAC deals, big trading volumes courtesy of the meme-stock frenzy, and banks’ further release of loan loss reserves. While deal volume may remain elevated, the other two don’t seem likely to maintain their frenetic pace over the next year, much less accelerate. Equity trading tends to ebb and flow, with pretty wide swings. Furthermore, as we detailed last quarter, banks’ reserve releases are an accounting treatment, not new money coming in the door. Will deal activity or lending offset these should trading and reserve releases dry up? We have our doubts. Without that force, this quarter’s pop seems likely to fade.

Many now take banks’ one-off earnings bump and their executives’ related commentary as a sign that a long economic boom—a new “roaring 20s”—lies ahead. The evidence? Households’ amassed savings and pent-up demand, not to mention abundant capital and low rates—supposedly fuel for a big credit boom. Instead of a return-to-normal V-shaped recovery, they foresee a check mark with a wall of money driving growth skyward. Then, to reinforce such views, they cite trillions of dollars’ worth of fiscal and monetary support, as well as banks’ allegedly abundant lending firepower.

But banks’ earnings releases themselves undercut this. Notably weak? Loan growth—banks’ primary long-term earnings driver.[vi] Even after long rates’ recent climb, the yield curve remains flattish relative to its long history, which probably still weighs on banks’ lending. Many popular expectations hinge on stimulus money fueling big growth, but that looks more likely to disappoint than positively surprise amid grinding gridlock. Meanwhile, there are already signs inflation will subside after a brief, base-effect driven uptick. Circling back, banks don’t seem particularly keen on using their burgeoning deposits to back new loans when they expect less creditworthy borrowers to struggle and aren’t compensated for taking the extra risk. We think this cocktail underscores what is likely beyond the reopening bounce: a return to slower growth, not a lasting boom.

Buoyant sentiment today already reflects Q1 earnings. Probably Q2 and beyond, too. While analysts are seemingly playing catch up this earnings season, they have been ratcheting up their forecasts for a big 2021 earnings recovery since last spring. The details may still be fuzzy, but stocks penciled in the rebound’s broad outlines a while ago. Markets typically look 3 – 30 months ahead, in our view. Economic activity and the earnings it generated last quarter—and will probably keep fueling in the near term—don’t matter as much as what 2022 is shaping up to look like. In our view, it behooves investors to focus on that window—and whether expectations are running too hot.

Q1 is past. Don’t look to it—or forthcoming earnings announcements—for where stocks go next. The reopening bounce they confirm is baked in. Investors should look beyond that to whether sentiment now reflects the likely reality then—and keep expectations in check."

MY COMMENT

YES......we are probably facing HISTORIC earnings over the next weeks.......and over the course of this entire year and perhaps beyond. A very positive stock market environment going forward. BUT....investors can NOT just throw money at the wall.......and expect everything to stick. It will STILL be important to select companies that have staying power and the ability to outperform based on......FUNDAMENTALS.

EVERYONE......I mean everyone.....is baking in future earnings growth as the re-opening happens. Investors that are the most successful......will be those that hold companies that will not only get a nice bump from the EXPECTED earnings increases.....but.....have the business staying power to build on those earnings going forward for the long term. For my money....that means the cream of the crop....the dominant companies that have a license to mint money.

A CRAPPY BUSINESS that gets a pandemic earnings boost....is still a crappy company.

In addition.....markets go up and down.....and the near future will be no exception. YES.....celebrate the good times....but keep you eye on REALITY. The rules have NOT changed. As usual over the short to medium term....there will be corrections and the markets will be VOLATILE.....as always.

 

Not a lot going on at the open today. Just the usual....people take profits.....program trading continues for the short term players.....markets wait for the earning to come out at the end of the day at the start of a new week......people realize that Bitcoin can actually go down....FAST......a TESLA burns up in a crazy but dramatic accident.....short term yields jump up and down......etc, etc, etc. Just part of the normal market process.

Here is some info on the open today.

Stock market news live updates: Stocks pull back from record levels, Bitcoin prices steady

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-april-19-2021-113402029.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Stocks fell Monday, with the S&P 500 and Dow retreating from record levels.

The Dow dropped about 130 points, or 0.4%, after the index rallied to an all-time high of more than 34,000 last week. The S&P 500 also dipped below the index's record high, and the Nasdaq edged lower. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to top 1.6%.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) prices added more than 3% Monday morning in New York, recovering some losses after plunging swiftly over the weekend. Bitcoin sank as much as 15% on Sunday, and other major coins like Ether and XRP also dropped. Bitcoin prices had reached a record high of more than $64,000 on Wednesday as Coinbase Global (COIN), the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the U.S., went public via a direct listing.

For equities, however, volatility has subsided considerably in recent sessions. The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, hovered near a 14-month low as stocks remained close to all-time highs.

"The S&P 500 has reached new highs while volatility has sharply declined. Low volatility has outweighed low correlations among stocks, driving return dispersion back below the long-term average," David Kostin, Goldman Sachs chief U.S. equity strategist, said in a note Monday.

"As the U.S. moves beyond key macro events such as the 2020 election, the $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus package, and peak economic activity, we expect three defining themes for markets will be tax reform, infrastructure, and pricing power," Kostin said.

"The details of tax reform will drive wide variation in the size of the hit to company earnings, while only certain companies are likely to be direct beneficiaries of infrastructure spending," he added. "Similarly, the effect of rising input costs will vary depending on company margin profiles and ability to pass through costs to end consumers. These micro-driven catalysts should keep stock correlations low, but a return to a high dispersion environment will be challenging without an increase in volatility."

Corporate earnings season will accelerate this week, with companies including Netflix (NFLX), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Snap (SNAP) and Intel (INTC) poised to report results. So far, about 9% of S&P 500 companies have reported first-quarter earnings results, with 81% of these companies having beaten expectations – matching the record high beat rate from 2008.

"It’s not just cost-cutting delivering these results," Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, said in a note Monday. "Revenue surprises are also at record levels: 84% of reporting companies have beaten top line expectations (old record in Q3 2020, 79%) and the mean revenue beat is 3.3 points ahead of Wall Street’s models (old record 2.9 points in Q4 2020)."

"Q1 2021 corporate earnings reports thus far are showing both upside revenue surprises and solid incremental earnings leverage from those top-line beats," he added. "We have been relying on the latter to support our positive view on U.S. large caps, but it’s nice to see the former as well."

9:43 a.m. ET: Coinbase, crypto-related stocks tumble after Bitcoin flash crash
Shares of Coinbase sank shortly after market open on Monday, adding to a stretch of volatile trading in the stock's short history on the public markets after Bitcoin prices plunged over the weekend.

Coinbase shares dropped 2% around 9:45 a.m. in New York, even as bitcoin, ethereum and other crypto prices recovered. Other stocks closely tied to digital currencies, including Bit Digital (BTBT) and Marathon Digital (MARA), also fell Monday morning.

9:31 a.m. ET: Stocks open slightly lower
Here's where markets were trading after the opening bell on Monday:

• S&P 500 (^GSPC): -5.95 points (-0.14%) to 4,179.52
• Dow (^DJI): -74.71 points (-0.22%) to 34,124.96
• Nasdaq (^IXIC): -39.75 points (-0.27%) to 14,013.82
• Crude (CL=F): +$0.01 (+0.02%) to $63.14 a barrel
• Gold (GC=F): -$13.10 (-0.74%) to $1,767.10 per ounce
• 10-year Treasury (^TNX): +3.6 bps to yield 1.608%

8:27 a.m. ET: Coca-Cola shares rise after Q1 results beat estimates, with post-pandemic recovery helping boost sales
Coca-Cola (KO) posted first-quarter results that handily exceeded expectations, with the beverage giant offering signs of a strong consumer resurgence coming out of the COVID-19 pandemic.

First-quarter comparable earnings per share were 55 cents, or 5 pennies ahead of estimates, on adjusted operating revenue of $9.02 billion. This top-line growth represented an increase of 5% over last year, for the first year-over-year rise since the first quarter of 2020. Unit case volumes returned to 2019 levels in March, Coca-Cola added.

“We are encouraged by improvements in our business, especially in markets where vaccine availability is increasing and economies are opening up, and we remain confident in our full year guidance," Coca-Cola Company CEO James Quincey said in a press statement."

MY COMMENT

The BIG FACTOR going forward that very few people are talking about is GOVERNMENT........the impact of higher taxes, government policy, increased regulation, and attitudes toward business. Will the general attitude from government be positive or negative? Will it be a situation of forward looking positivity....or....will it all be negativity and brow-beating whining and scolding. People never give enough consideration to the simple psychological environment that government has the ability to PUSH onto the country......and by extension.....onto the markets.

In my opinion earnings and fundamentals are the most important short term event right now....but over the long term.....2-4 years......government policy, regulation, and new laws....will be a SIGNIFICANT factor in business success.....economic success...... and......the investing environment. UNFORTUNATELY......what it is....it is....nothing any investor can do to change any of this government STUFF. It will just be an overlay on the investing process and business that you are stuck with.

 

One of the BIG earnings today is COKE. I no longer own the company....but have owned it for many years in the past. Here is how they did.

Coca-Cola beats on earnings, says demand in March hit pre-pandemic levels

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/19/coca-cola-ko-q1-2021-earnings.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Key Points

• Coca-Cola said quarterly demand was unchanged from a year earlier as North America and Western Europe take longer to recover.
• However, global unit case volume in March returned to 2019 levels.
• In a separate filing, Coke announced plans for a public listing of Coca-Cola Beverages Africa.
• The company reiterated its full-year forecast of organic revenue growth in the high single digits and adjusted earnings growth in a range of high single digits to low double digits.

Coca-Cola posts earnings beat, keeps guidance unchanged

Coca-Cola on Monday reported that quarterly demand was unchanged from a year earlier as North America and Western Europe take longer to bounce back from the coronavirus pandemic.

However, global unit case volume in March returned to 2019 levels.

“We are encouraged by improvements in our business, especially in markets where vaccine availability is increasing and economies are opening up, and we remain confident in our full year guidance,” CEO James Quincey said in a statement.

Shares of the company fell less than 1% in morning trading.

Here’s what the company reported compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by Refinitiv:

• Adjusted earnings per share: 55 cents vs. 50 cents expected
• Revenue: $9.02 billion vs. $8.6 billion expected

The beverage giant reported fiscal first-quarter net income of $2.25 billion, or 52 cents per share, down from $2.78 billion, or 64 cents per share, a year earlier.

Excluding items, Coke earned 55 cents per share, topping the 50 cents per share expected by analysts surveyed by Refinitiv.

Net salesrose 5% to $9.02 billion, beating expectations of $8.6 billion. Organic revenues grew 6%, while unit case volume was flat from a year earlier. Coke said demand improved every month of the quarter, driven by markets like China where uncertainty tied to the virus has fallen.

The company’s sparkling soft drinks segment, which includes its namesake soda, saw volume growth of 4% in the quarter. While the North American fountain business is still under pressure, growth in India, China and Latin America offset those declines. Higher demand in China and India also helped its nutrition, juice, dairy and plant-based beverage segment, which posted 3% volume growth.

Coke’s hydration, sports, coffee and tea segment was the hardest hit, with its volume shrinking 11%. The coffee business declined 21% due to the virus impact on Costa cafes. The hydration category, which includes Dasani and Smartwater, reported volume declines of 12% as fewer consumers worldwide bought single-use water bottles. Demand for Coke’s tea products fell 6%, while sports drinks like Powerade saw volume decline just 1%.

The company reiterated its full-year forecast of organic revenue growth in the high single digits and adjusted earnings growth in a range of high single digits to low double digits.

CFO John Murphy told analysts that uncertainty still remains. India and parts of Europe are responding to spikes in new Covid-19 cases with lockdowns, while Latin America and Africa are expecting slower vaccine distribution and new waves. Quincey echoed that sentiment.

“The breaking news today is that the weekly new cases of Covid has hit an all-time peak, so while vaccinations are rising in many countries — U.S., U.K., et cetera — the flip side is there’s actually a new high in terms of cases,” Quincey said.

He added that April has started well for Coke, but the looming risk of new lockdowns could reverse that progress.

In a separate filing, Coke announced plans for a public listing of Coca-Cola Beverages Africa. The company will sell a portion of its holdings in the initial public offering, which is expected within 18 months. Shares will be listed in Amsterdam and Johannesburg."

MY COMMENT

The usual forward looking.....weasel words. Not amazing but ok earnings. The net income drop is not a positive for the company.....but it is comparing pre-pandemic with post-pandemic........and the restaurant shut-down obviously probably had an impact. BUT....still considering everything......not earnings that would cause me to buy the company.

With millennial attitudes towards sugar and soft drinks...and...negative attitudes toward diet drinks and health issues....I just have NO interest in this......one trick pony.....company. I think Pepsi has a much stronger business model with their snack and food products in addition to the drinks.

 

Got around to checking my account today about 30-40 minutes ago......like most investors today...starting the day in the red.......very moderate red. I am "hovering"......an investment term of art....just below my all time account high by a few thousand dollars. The markets are taking a well deserved breather.....while awaiting more earnings.

EVEN with great earnings.....I would not be surprised in the least.....to see a continuation of the trend over the past years of....punishing companies.....for great earnings based on some minor statement or wording in the earnings report.

 

Good to see that people have lots of pent up money to spend. I am sure some of that will go into the markets....the rest.....will go to businesses and companies as products and services are purchased. There has been some trial balloons.....in the media recently....about a 4th round of money give-aways to people. At this point it would be a BIG MISTAKE to send out more free money.......well not exactly free.....to the taxpayers that will end up footing the bill in the end.....like always.

Consumers have $5.4 trillion in excess savings. That could unleash a global spending boom

https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/19/business/consumer-saving-spending-boom/index.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Consumers around the world have amassed an extra $5.4 trillion in savings since the coronavirus pandemic began, setting the stage for a spending boom that could power a strong uplift in economic growth this year.

Households had stockpiled the excess savings, equal to 6% of global GDP, by the end of March, according to Moody's Analytics. The savings are on top of what they would have saved if the pandemic had not occurred and saving behavior had been the same as in 2019, chief economist Mark Zandi said in a research note on Monday.

The United States boasts the largest share of excess saving, amounting to $2.6 trillion, or 12% of US GDP, with the United Kingdom close behind at 10% of GDP.

In general, excess saving is at its highest in North America and Europe where lockdowns and government support have been most significant, according to Zandi.

Many wealthier households whose incomes haven't been affected by the pandemic have built up savings that they otherwise would have spent on travel, entertainment and eating out.

A second factor driving savings accumulation has been unprecedented government support for workers and companies. The International Monetary Fund said in November that governments and central banks around the world had announced $19.5 trillion to cushion their economies from the worst recession since the Great Depression.
That stimulus has paid wages and bailed out struggling businesses, allowing some people to save despite the economic slump.

As lockdowns ease, consumers are expected to spend nearly $2 trillion this surplus cash, setting the global economy up for considerable gains.

"The combination of an unleashing of significant pent-up demand and overflowing excess saving will drive a surge in consumer spending across the globe as countries approach herd immunity and open up," Zandi said.
"We expect approximately one-third of the global excess saving will be spent this year, adding just over 2 percentage points to global GDP growth," he added.

All that extra spending may also stoke inflation, a growing concern among investors and economists because it could force central banks to raise interest rates and taper asset purchases sooner than anticipated.

The US Producer Price Index, which measures sale prices for goods and services, climbed 1% on a seasonally adjusted basis in March, a steeper rise than the previous month and bigger than economists had expected.

Consumers could spend more or less than anticipated, depending on how quickly the pandemic subsides, according to Zandi. Survey findings earlier this month from the New York Federal Reserve found that households were directing a larger portion of their government stimulus checks towards saving or paying down debt, rather than spending.

At the same time, strong consumer confidence bodes well for spending. In the first three months of the year global consumer confidence reached its highest level since records began in 2005, according to The Conference Board.

One factor limiting an even bigger spending boom is that high-income households have accumulated a large share of the excess saving, particularly in the United States. They are more likely to treat it as "wealth than income, and will thus spend much less of it, at least quickly," Zandi said.

In the United States, those 55 and older have more than 60% of the excess saving, with homeowners holding 90% and three quarters concentrated in households with at least a college degree.

"None of this is too surprising, but it is a reminder of how hard the pandemic has been on the finances of young, low-income renters with less education, and how gracefully older, high-income educated homeowners have navigated financially," said Zandi."

MY COMMENT

GREAT NEWS for people that hold stocks from companies that sell their DOMINANT products all over the world. That is why I like the BIG CAP companies that are world wide dominant......companies that lead all around the globe with their business model.

As to whether the money is spent on STUFF....or....is saved/invested.....no preference. Either way it enters the economy and produces positive results. I dont think many are just going to stuff a bunch of cash into a mattress ot bury it in the back yard. ANY way that the money enters the economy........is a positive.

 

I have given my opinion many times on here that the WORLD and the USA are STILL....after 11 years......in the grip of DEFLATION. That remains my opinion....nothing has changed except for the injection of TRILLIONS of dollars into our economy......with little to no inflation to speak of. Here is a similar view:

Bloomberg’s McGlone Warns of ‘Predominant Deflationary Forces’

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bloomberg-mcglone-warns-predominant-deflationary-153613553.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"A long-term downdraft in commodity prices and U.S. Treasury yields could continue due to ongoing deflationary forces, according to a new report by Bloomberg published Monday.

Although not mentioned in the report, the deflationary outlook could be a blow to some cryptocurrency investors who view bitcoin (BTC) as a hedge against inflation and currency debasement.

• “The fact that the world’s most significant commodity, crude oil, is the same price it was 16 years ago, despite unprecedented levels of monetary and fiscal stimulus, indicates entrenched deflationary forces,” according to the report, which was co-authored by Bloomberg Intelligence commodity strategist Mike McGlone and Carl Riccadonna, Bloomberg’s chief U.S. economist.
  
  
• Since the financial crisis, commodity prices have declined by about 60% versus U.S. M2 money supply growth while the S&P 500 has beaten M2 by about 40%, according to the report.
  
  
• “The stock market tide needs to keep rising or deflation will prevail,” the analysts wrote.
  
  
• “Unless WTI (West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil) can sustain above $70 a barrel, there’s little to stop more of the same deflationary forces from commodities that marked a top in the U.S. Treasury 10-year yield of about 3% in 2014.”
  
  
• Bloomberg also noted similar bearish conditions for Brent crude oil to the 2018 price peak around $85 per barrel, which preceded bull markets in Treasury bonds and gold.
  
  
• Around the same time, bitcoin entered a bear market between December 2017 and January 2019."

MY COMMENT

In the old days....many years ago.....I used to argue this issue on another board with posters that anticipated HYPER-INFLATION. More recently...about 6 years ago....I was having the same discussion on another board with a number of proponents of extreme inflation. they even went so far as having members do grocery store surveys each week to track the inflation. BUT......bummer....it never happened. In fact for the past 12 years since 2009....the dominant economic direction in the entire world and the USA has been.....DEFLATION.

So....even now....my view continues to be......YES, there is NO inflation. Other than the amount needed for a healthy economy.

 

AND....once again..here is the ten year treasury yield chart for the past.....232 YEARS. Where do we stand TODAY on the historic 10 year yield.........OH about the lowest rate in all of HISTORY.....well....at least the last 232 years of history. ALTHOUGH....OMG....this chart is outdated by about 9 months.......so we are perhaps 1/1000 of an inch higher on the chart. We CONTINUE to be at EXTREME LOW rates for the ten year. I heard earlier in the day that there was concern about the ten year yield today......BIG WOW.....we are up to about 1.6....from 1.59.

FUNNY.....I dont remember anyone being concerned about the 10 year yield when it was 3-6% between 2000 and about 2011.

 

NO WAY...the markets were going to overcome negative news today about Boeing, Tesla, Nvidia, etc.....as well as a general market
pause. I was MILD red today.......my only green stocks were APPL and GOOGL. PUS...got beat by the SP500 by .09%.

It will be nice to see the IBM earnings a little later in the day.

I REMAIN......just under.....an all time account high. Along with real estate and personal property of mine SKYROCKETING......it has been an exceptional year to date. The ONLY thing that gives me....pause....is the HUGE increases that are happening. A contrary indicator.

 

Not sure anyone gets very excited about IBM anymore....but...here are their earnings.

IBM beats across the board, posts revenue growth after four quarters of declines

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/19/ibm-earnings-q1-2021.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Key Points

• IBM reported revenue growth after four quarters of declines.
• The company announced acquisitions of two cloud consulting firms in the quarter.

IBM shares rose 4% in extended trading on Monday after the enterprise technology and services maker reported first-quarter earnings that came in better than analysts had expected.

Here’s how the company did:

• Earnings: $1.77 per share, adjusted, vs. $1.63 per share as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.
• Revenue: $17.73 billion, vs. $17.35 billion as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.

Revenue grew slightly on an annualized basis in the quarter, compared with a 6% decrease in the prior quarter, according to a statement. The company reiterated previous guidance of revenue growth for the full year.

IBM’s Global Technology Services segment, which handles managed services, outsourcing and support, contributed $6.37 billion in revenue. Its revenue was down 1% year over year and more than the FactSet consensus estimate of $6.32 billion. IBM plans to spin off part of the segment as a standalone public company called Kyndryl by the end of the year.

IBM’s Cloud and Cognitive Software division, which includes Red Hat, came up with $5.44 billion in revenue, which was up 4% and above the $5.30 billion FactSet consensus.

Global Business Services, the unit that includes consulting, contributed $4.23 billion in revenue, which was up 2% and higher than the $4.03 billion consensus.

Systems revenue of $1.43 billion, from sales of mainframe computers and other hardware, was up 4% and above the $1.29 billion consensus estimate.

In the quarter IBM announced that it was acquiring 7Summits, a Salesforce consulting firm, from private-equity-firm Sverica Capital Management, and that it was buying Taos, a consulting group that works on cloud migrations. IBM also said it had sold 250 patents to grocery-delivery company Instacart.

Excluding the after-hours move, IBM shares are up around 6% since the start of 2021, while the S&P 500 index has grown nearly 11% over the same period."

MY COMMENT

Not too bad.....we will find out tomorrow.......at the open........what the markets think about these earnings. Not sure this will be much of a kick in the pants for the markets tomorrow. BUT.....a beat is a beat. Step by step.....we relentlessly move forward.