The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. oldmanram

    oldmanram Well-Known Member

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    At closing:
    Only down .54% , I say only because that is better than at the opening, was down almost 1% , noon down .64% , so a minor comeback in the afternoon. Bright spots ,
    DLR UP 1.23%
    Google UP .31%
    T UP UP .13%
    Gotta stay positive ,
     
  2. Dax Martinez

    Dax Martinez Member

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    I’m up today (0.37%)

    Question: is it smart to invest in multiple S&P 500 ETF or just invest in one and put all my money in that one every week?
     
  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    There is no reason to invest in multiple SP500 Index Funds or ETF's. In theory and in reality....they will all achieve the same result. Just invest in one and put all your money in that one. Just compare them and pick the one that has the lowest expenses.
     
  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    FUTURES.....are up nicely.

    I mentioned Nvidia in an earlier post as being one of the issues with the markets today. HERE....is the reason.....at least as far as I can see.

    Nvidia Falls as U.K. Intervenes on $40 Billion Arm Deal

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-falls-u-k-intervenes-134600132.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Nvidia Corp. shares fell after the U.K. said it will intervene in the U.S. company’s $40 billion deal for British semiconductor designer Arm Ltd. on national security grounds.

    The Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport ordered the country’s antitrust watchdog to investigate the implications of the deal and make a report by midnight on July 30, according to a statement issued on Monday. Nvidia shares slid 1.8% as the market opened in New York.

    The proposed acquisition of the U.K.’s most valuable tech company is already under investigation by the Competition and Markets Authority, which will consider whether Arm might raise prices or hurt licensing services to Nvidia’s rivals. Arm is currently owned by Japan’s SoftBank Group Corp. and Nvidia has said it will keep Arm’s headquarters in Cambridge.

    “We do not believe that this transaction poses any material national security issues,” a spokesperson for Nvidia said in a statement. “We will continue to work closely with the British authorities, as we have done since the announcement of this deal.”

    The DCMS noted that semiconductors are fundamental to a wide range of technologies but also underpin the U.K.’s critical national infrastructure and are found in defense and national security related technologies.

    “We want to support our thriving U.K. tech industry and welcome foreign investment, but it is appropriate that we properly consider the national security implications of a transaction like this,” Digital Secretary Oliver Dowden said.

    Arm’s neutral position as a supplier at the heart of the chipmaking industry has already raised concerns about the deal, because chipmaker Nvidia directly competes with Arm’s customers such as Qualcomm Inc., Intel Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc.

    In the U.S., the deal is under review by the Federal Trade Commission, which has opened an in-depth investigation of the merger and has sent information demands to third parties.

    MY COMMENT

    This deal is looking pretty shaky at the moment. Too bad.....since it would be a very nice acquisition....and....I am an owner of Nvidia. At the least....it is going to take a while for everyone to jump through the hoops.

    This was probably a factor in the markets today....not that it matters. Markets are often down for no particular reason........and.....knowing why the general markets were down today is not really important to long term investors.
     
  5. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    AND.....with Google being one of my two stocks that was up today.....I am guessing this is the reason. I dont really care why something happens on one particular day.....but.....this sort of info.....and.....analysis is welcome any time.....if it puts money into my pocket.

    Alphabet Price Target Raised by J.P. Morgan on Fundamentals
    Alphabet 'is well positioned across ads, clouds and a number of other key initiatives,' J.P. Morgan says, lifting its price target on the stock.

    https://www.thestreet.com/investing/alphabet-price-target-raised-jp-morgan?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Technology titan Alphabet (GOOGL) - Get Report on Monday received a 7.7% share-price-target increase, to $2,575 from $2,390, from J.P. Morgan, based on fundamentals.

    Analyst Doug Anmuth affirmed his overweight rating on the Mountain View, Calif., parent of Google.

    We remain positive on Alphabet, as we believe it is well positioned across ads, clouds, and a number of other key initiatives to both drive and benefit from long-term digital trends,” Anmuth wrote.

    “And it has an attractive combination of top-line scale, growth and margins, supporting our view that valuation remains attractive at 27 times our 2022 estimated Alphabet GAAP earnings per share, or 22 times our 2022 estimated GAAP earnings per share excluding cash and other bets.”

    Google shares recently traded at $2,275, down 0.3%.

    Posting a 30% increase year to date, compared with 11% for the S&P 500, Alphabet's share performance "both absolute and relative to the S&P 500 hasn't been this strong since 2009,” Anmuth said.

    Still, GOOGL remains one of our best ideas as we remain positive on improving top and bottom line trajectory and potential for bigger capital returns. … Our [sum of the parts] valuation suggests a market capitalization approaching $2 trillion, or $2,857 per share, 25% above where [the] shares currently trade.”

    Alphabet won a key legal case: The Supreme Court, overturning a federal appeals court decision, ruled in its favor in a copyright dispute with fellow tech giant Oracle (ORCL) - Get Report.

    In March Alphabet was upgraded to buy from hold at Stifel with a higher price target."

    MY COMMENT

    Google has been on a tear this year. It is the ONE....big cap tech company......that is often in the green on days that the others are struggling. It would be nice to see a good bump up in price....and than....another one with earnings. The company reports on April 27. With this sort of upgrade and positive comments.....PLUS earnings.....the company has the potential to be the BIG CAP tech leader of the month.
     
    #5105 WXYZ, Apr 20, 2021
    Last edited: Apr 20, 2021
  6. gtrudeau88

    gtrudeau88 Well-Known Member

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    Not sure I agree. Couldn't Vanguard (etf VOO) have some severe problem, maybe some malfeasance or something, that could cause Vanguard to have to liquidate something in the fund in order to raise dollars? If 2 funds from 2 different firms have the same or close to the same expenses, why not invest in both 50/50? Seems a little safer.

    As a side note, VOO and IVV are two S&P funds I own in my ira. They are up 4.63% and 4.43% respectively. They were bought at the same time (within seconds of each other) yet have slightly different results which I don't believe is fully explainable by fund expenses alone.
     
    #5106 gtrudeau88, Apr 20, 2021
    Last edited: Apr 20, 2021
  7. oldmanram

    oldmanram Well-Known Member

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    In reality WXYZ is correct , technically there are differences from one to another , BUT you would have to go into the HOLDINGS of each different fund, the weighting of each of the holdings , and who is running it, and probably the biggest variable, what does the future hold ?
    Are techs going to be big ? or are value stocks, or just the BEST companies (like W invests in) And past performance is NO indication of future performance. During the first nine month's of the recovery, till end of 2020 , tech was king. But since new years , Value has been better, or dividend stocks. The Future ??? Who Knows ? ........I loaned out my Crystal Ball to a friend and never got it back so I don't know

    I once bought both VOO & VOOG (G for growth) at the same time , same amount of money in each, and monitored them over the course of 3 years , 2017-2020 , I was very surprised by the difference in share price over that time, but I didn't take into account dividends paid.
    VOO increased 44.5% and VOOG increased 60.44%
    Over the course of 20 years that can make a difference
    but that's just the price difference, not total return,
    VOO pays higher dividends 1.04%
    VOOG about half of that .64%

    And here in an in depth analysis of VOO vs SPY by Mathew Chin
    https://towardsdatascience.com/spy-vs-voo-is-there-any-difference-437defc2c3f3

    And here is Finny on comparing everything
    VOO VOOG VUG SPY he has a comparison of a lot of them
    https://www.askfinny.com/compare/VOOG-vs-VOO

    After you go through all those , researching them to death , you then come back to "But what is the market going to do down the road?"
    BECAUSE , Past performance is no indication of future performance.
    AND More Reward generally = More Risk
    AND we haven't even touched on the Time Horizon your looking at.................

    SPY or VOO or VOOG ???
     
  8. oldmanram

    oldmanram Well-Known Member

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    The difference in performance is probably because of the weighting of the holdings ,
    Take a look at the holdings of each of them and you WILL notice that they may own the SAME stocks, but in different ALLOCATIONS.
     
    Rustic1 likes this.
  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Yes.....I have seen small differences in SP500 funds and ETF's at times....extremely small. They seem to last for a year or two and then flip the other way. I dont worry about a BIG NAME SP500 fund having an issue.....Vanguard, Schwab, Fildelity, etc. Those are the ones that I have held over the years. At one time I had both Vanguard and Schwab funds. The differences over the longer term were NEGLIGIBLE.......and would flip back and forth from year to year.

    Now fees...that is the primary concern I would have between two funds.

    BUT...if someone wants to hold two or three or four SP500 funds or ETF's......go for it.
     
    oldmanram likes this.
  10. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    If someone purchases identical quantities of 3 different S&P 500 Index tracking equities, 10 years down the road the values can be substantially different.

    Fund managers call this "tracking error" but it's clear the tracking error does not favor the fund owners most of the time and some funds pretty much never error in favor of the owners.

    Looking at S&P 500 indices as a commodity is a mistake. They should be a commodity but there are tangible differences.

    It's not difficult to study this using a spreadsheet and a graph over a period of a year or more.
     
  11. oldmanram

    oldmanram Well-Known Member

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    Tom , the above is correct , but WHAT time period is going to exactly mimic the the future ?? That's the question !
     
  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I dont believe that VOO and VOOG follow the same model. Besides a significant fee difference...they hold different stocks.
     
  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    ANYWAY.....moving to earnings today. My holding PG reported before the bell today. Another positive earnings report to add to the stack of positive results.

    Procter & Gamble earnings beat as consumers hang on to pandemic cleaning habits; price hikes ahead

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/20/procter-gamble-pg-q3-2021-earnings.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Key Points
    • Procter & Gamble topped Wall Street’s estimates for its fiscal third-quarter earnings and revenue.
    • Consumers are still buying more cleaning supplies and laundry detergent, but they’ve also started buying beauty products again.
    • The company also said that it will raise prices on some of its products to combat rising commodity costs.
    Procter & Gamble on Tuesday topped analysts’ estimates for quarterly earnings and revenue as consumers maintained pandemic buying trends like purchasing more cleaning supplies and started buying beauty products again.

    The company, whose portfolio includes Tide detergent, Charmin toilet paper and Pampers diapers, also announced that it will raise prices on some products this autumn.

    Shares of the company fell less than 1% in premarket trading.

    Here’s what the company reported compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by Refinitiv:

    • Earnings per share: $1.26 vs. $1.19 expected
    • Revenue: $18.1 billion vs. $17.9 billion expected
    For the third quarter ended March 31, net income rose to $3.27 billion, or $1.26 per share, up from $2.92 billion, or $1.12 per share, a year earlier. Analysts surveyed by Refinitiv were expecting earnings per share of $1.19.

    Net salesrose 5% to $18.1 billion, beating expectations of $17.9 billion. Organic revenue grew 4% in the quarter.

    The company’s fabric and home care segment, which includes Dawn and Cascade dish detergents, reported organic sales growth of 7% from a year earlier, when many North American consumers were stockpiling cleaning supplies.

    P&G’s beauty segment also reported organic revenue growth of 7%. Consumers have started buying skin-care products, like its premium SK-II brand, again, and Chinese customers led growth in hair-care products.

    The health-care business saw organic sales grow by 3% in the quarter. The growth came from the segment’s oral care products, which include Oral B toothbrushes, while its cold and flu products lagged. Social-distancing measures resulted in a weaker flu season this year.

    The company’s grooming segment, which includes Gillette and Venus, saw organic sales growth of 4%. Organic sales of shaving appliances rose more than 20%. Men, however, are still growing out their pandemic beards and bought fewer blades and razors than women.

    Baby, feminine and family care was the only segment with declining organic sales. The company said that fewer consumers bought its baby care products, like Pampers diapers, due to competition and retailer inventory. The segment faced tough comparisons from a year ago.

    The company reiterated its fiscal 2021 outlook, forecasting sales growth of 5% to 6% and adjusted earnings growth of 8% to 10%.

    P&G has started implementing price hikes across its baby-care, feminine-care and adult incontinence products in the United States to offset rising commodity costs. Price increases will vary by brand but will be in the range of mid-to-high single digits. Consumers can expect the price increases to go into effect in September. Rival Kimberly-Clark, which makes Huggies, has already announced price hikes on some of its products."

    MY COMMENT

    A good beat by an old line company. Of course......as usual.....an earnings beat just about always guarantees a little few day drop in the stock. We need to just keep racking up the earnings beats....money in the bank going forward.
     
  14. oldmanram

    oldmanram Well-Known Member

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    W you are correct , they follow different models,
    A better comparison would be VOO to SPY and IVV and the big 3 Growth S&P 500 etf's would be
    VOOG , SPYG, and IVW

    This morning green for a bit , then turning down , slightly
    My REIT's are doing REAL good
    DLR UP 2.13% and VTR UP .67%

    Techs down
    MU down 1.52%
    INTC down 1.2%
     
    #5114 oldmanram, Apr 20, 2021
    Last edited: Apr 20, 2021
  15. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Here is another earnings report that came out today.....

    "8:50 a.m. ET: Johnson & Johnson beats Q1 expectations, posts estimates-topping full-year earnings guidance.
    Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) posted first-quarter results and full-year guidance that topped estimates, with some trends seen during the pandemic in consumer health and medical device sales starting to reverse.

    Adjusted earnings of $2.59 per share grew over last year, and sales of $22.32 billion were better than the $21.98 billion expected, according to Bloomberg consensus data. Worldwide pharmaceutical sales rose 9.6%, driven by double-digit percentage increases in revenue from drugs Stelara and Xarelto. Consumer health category sales fell 2.9%, however, "primarily driven by negative prior year comparisons related to the COVID-19 pantry loading in Q1 2020, mainly in over-the counter products," the company said. That said, medical device sales, which had been weak during the pandemic as consumers hesitated to get elective procedures, grew 8.8%.

    Johnson & Johnson sees full-year sales of between $90.6 billion and $91.6 billion, and adjusted earnings per share between $9.42 and $9.57. "

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-april-20-2021-221508218.html

    MY COMMENT

    With this company it is all about the....vaccine at the moment. So not sure earnings matter in this case.
     
  16. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I had a hard time finding the earnings report for PM. Is the media censoring the report because this is a tobacco company? I dont know...but for a large company it is very difficult to find any information on their report. I had to really search to find this data on a NON-MAINSTREAM site.

    https://www.oleantimesherald.com/ne...cle_1d251d3f-1025-5aef-85f2-a768f4b56259.html

    "Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) on Tuesday reported first-quarter profit of $2.42 billion.

    The New York-based company said it had profit of $1.55 per share. Earnings, adjusted for asset impairment costs, came to $1.57 per share.

    The results exceeded Wall Street expectations. The average estimate of seven analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research was for earnings of $1.40 per share.

    The seller of Marlboro and other cigarette brands posted revenue of $19.36 billion in the period. Its adjusted revenue was $7.59 billion, also exceeding Street forecasts. Four analysts surveyed by Zacks expected $7.18 billion.

    Philip Morris expects full-year earnings in the range of $5.95 to $6.05 per share.

    Philip Morris shares have increased 11% since the beginning of the year. The stock has risen 18% in the last 12 months."

    MY COMMENT

    Is there a blackout on tobacco companies? Very strange that the media does not report on a major company reporting earnings before the bell today. This is a MAJOR COMPANY.
     
  17. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I do like the discussion above on SP500 Index funds and ETF's......that is how these boards are supposed to work. A nice exchange of information and comments.

    I have been trying to see if I could find an article giving SPECIFIC performance differences.....with discussion.....but.....nothing other than generalities. No luck.

    Here is a general article.....a bit on topic....but not really.

    The Hidden Differences Between Index Funds

    https://www.investopedia.com/articles/mutualfund/03/061103.asp
     
    #5117 WXYZ, Apr 20, 2021
    Last edited: Apr 20, 2021
  18. Rustic1

    Rustic1 Well-Known Member

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    Something to consider. On watch.

    Screenshot_20210420-101800_Chrome.jpg
     
  19. gtrudeau88

    gtrudeau88 Well-Known Member

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    What a fun green day we're having. NOT!!!
     
  20. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    YEAH...just checked my account for the first time today. Not surprised........my UP positions were COST, PG, and TSLA.

    I am curious to see how the rest of the day goes.

    BUT......WOW.....I am now back to my previous all time high that I was at a few weeks ago......what a life altering loss. Just shows that it is IMPOSSIBLE to ever predict short term market behavior. The.......EXACT.......reason that I am a long term investor.

    I was around some friends last week that are not really investors.....they have a little bit in a SP500 Index Fund. It was interesting to get the opinion of novice/non investors......in an older age group. Their take....stock investing is GAMBLING. HOW can anyone make money it just goes up and down again? I attribute this attitude to the short term media coverage that dominates. I doubt that I would ever be able to convince them that you can actually make money as an investor over a longer time period. I would not try to either.......I just listen and nod my head.

    I consider the current earnings that have come out and will come out over the next weeks......as money in the bank. Pay me now....or....pay me later. Does not matter to me.
     
    #5120 WXYZ, Apr 20, 2021
    Last edited: Apr 20, 2021
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