Thank you. I am not real young (52) and I've tried to be cautious in everything I've tried. I've made some mistakes but I expected to. When you start out you have an idea of what your goals are and what your philosophy will be but you don't know how realistic your goals are given your philosophy. You don't really know your tolerance for loss until you actually lose something. You have all sorts of ideas but are they right? You start doing a few buys and sells. You read some websites and try to amass some wisdom. You make some bad trades, try to understand what made you buy and whether your loss was due to bad logic or just some crap luck (sometimes luck kills the best of logic). You make some good trades and you analyze and try to understand what made it good, logic or luck or both. If you have a few losses due to the same pattern then you change your methods and thinking. If you don't you are insane per the definition of doing the same thing repeatedly and hoping for a new result each time. Over a little time you learn what your mistakes are, you set more realistic goals, and you learn to repeat what brought you success. My only wisdom that I can demonstrate is that I know myself pretty well. I am a fast thinker and have to force myself to slow down and not move too impulsively. I know I consider a loss a success if I learn from the loss and make effort to not repeat it. I know that whatever I'm doing can always be refined to be even better, no matter how good I appear to be doing. I am realistic about the time I want to spend doing investing. I know I have little appetite for learning advanced charting to find candles, cup handles, etc. If I take 2 steps backwards (losses) but a gain exceeds the losses then I'm ahead overall which is important. If you looked at my original positions back in Nov/Dec you would have seen no etfs except SDIV, a ton of oil/energy (ENB, MPC, GLP, DCP), T, O, CODI, and NLY. What followed was some crap trades in healthcare companies that looked good on paper but had no viable products (OTIC for example). I had some crap trades following the reddit crown (SLV, AAL). I've bought into viable companies at way too high a price (NVAX a great example!) and didn't sell when the price crashed (bad Q4 report) and then came back but not high enough for my taste and then dropped again (I'm talking NVAX again!). I've made some doozy mistakes, all of which I try to learn from. But I'm still ahead of the game, just not where I had hoped to be but again, my original hope was probably not realistic given my lack of experience. I've made some great buys (CSSEP, KLIC, RIO, CODI, SDIV, FRG, KMI, MPC, ENB) and some of these could have been even better had I sold at different times. I now have a lot of money (62% or ira and 20%+ of stock account) in S&P 500 etfs so I'm actively trading with a less % of my money. I'm much less speculative in nature than I was when I started. I'm growing, both financially and as a person.
Just a lot more seasoned, experienced and patient. I like when some people ignore me, those are the ones we use as a example to the ones that want to learn the signals that move the markets. Patience and timing are good tools for the value investors to learn and employ on the road to financial freedom. Some refuse to pay retail and simply wait for the inventory reduction sale. Then they can purchase shares or calls "leaps" to capture the most bang for their buck. The ones that keep cash on the side " we ALWAYS highly recommend" can play the downside and the entire purpose is to show markets can successfully be played in both directions. Some of these fully invested longs often get trapped and are forced to wait until their holdings recover. We have choices in life, my crowd prefers the 2 way street.
There is some truth to what you say Rustic1. Patience - yup. Impatience or impulse decision making if you will, can lead to poor results. This is true whether you are a trader or a long-termer. Don't pay retail - I think long term investors (experienced like wxyz) do practice this, at least on the initial buy. If he has 10K to invest and is looking at company x, I think he's smart enough to buy at a good price versus buying at an elevated price. For me, my experience with NVAX is where I failed in this, KLIC is where I succeeded. Now WXYZ has stated somewhere above that when he reinvests his dividends he buys at whatever the price is and doesn't care much about the cost. If all you are buying is a couple shares at a time that's probably ok. Cash - many of the long termers would disagree with you but I think you are right to a degree. Having cash allows you the opportunity to jump in on opportunities (upside or as you like to do, downside), whether they be a short term trade or a new long term buy. But one doesn't necessarily need cash exactly. One can get away with having positions that are sellable (whole or part) at a profit to create cash. Trapped and forced to wait - One is trapped only if one needs the money for something else. By holding continuously, yes, a long-termer endures downturns but he also experiences the upswings that usually eventually follow. Case in point: if one sold stocks at the beginning of the Feb/Mar 2020 downturn and only jumped back in once the market was sure swinging back up, that person would have missed several days of solid gains and impacted the bottom line.
GOF is killing me this morning. The managing company announced this a.m. that they are merging 2 others funds into GOF so I've gone from 8% gain to 3+% loss right out the gate.
Instaed of scaring poor granny for kicks n giggles you should pay attention to your investments. Looks to have recovered for the most part, lots of volume, buyers seem to be swooping in. I like CEFs and hopefully this will recover.
yes it is recovering. Still down 6.75% on the day but not as bad as it was. Lots of volume today so yeah, buyers diving in.
I always enjoy your posts Jwalker. You are pretty much in line with my REAL LIFE experiences with your post above. When I was age 32....I left a business where I was a partner and established a small business on my own. It was 1982...not exactly a SAFE time to start a new business with all that was going on in the economy. I had a lot of discussion with my wife about the RISK that we were taking with a new business. We knew that we would be able to put a KEOGH PLAN in place as a small business retirement plan in that business.....and...under that plan we would be able to put away $30,000 per year toward retirement. After the first three years in business we had done what we planed....we had put away $30,000 per year in the retirement plan and had over $100,000 in the plan. At that point we considered what we had done as a SUCCESS....even if the business failed and we had to work regular jobs. The reason we considered it a success is because we had.....secured our retirement. We put that.....over $100,000.....into 30 year treasuries at rates between 11-13%. We had LOCKED IN a retirement fund that would grow....GUARANTEED since it was safe 30 year treasuries.....to at least $3MILLION to $4MILLION by age 67. So......I ACTUALLY lived what you posed in your post above.....my goal was to SECURE my retirement....regardless of anything else. We always said.......if we were able to secure our retirement in the first years of the business.....we would be willing to work the window at McDonalds if we had to in an ABSOLUTE emergency financial situation. OUR number one goal......was securing our retirement.....for 35 years down the road. We UNDERSTOOD the power of compounding and we had a GUARANTEED return of 11-13%....LOCKED IN at age 32.
"It is not a terrible situation for someone entering retirement who is selling off physical assets." TomB16....responding to my post about the current HOT housing market said the above. I agree COMPLETELY. When I post....with wonder....about the EXTREME HOT housing market....I am NOT being negative. I LOVE IT. As a homeowner in a very desirable city....I am seeing my home value SKYROCKET......by $400,000 in less than 2 years. In fact a house just four houses down from mine just closed at $1.3MILLION. The house is a perfect COMP for my home....same square footage and extremely similar floor plan. It has been pending for a while and it has now closed. So....I figure my home has a value.....at the moment....of at the minimum $1.2MILLION......a 1.8 year gain of $400,000. For anyone that is selling or downsizing for retirement....it is the golden era.
WELCOME......Live&Learn....glad to see you posting. I will comment that there are some times when buying an annuity is the right thing to do. I am talking about INCOME ANNUITIES......NOT all the other sorts of complex, high commission, annuity products that are tied up with insurance in various forms or tied to some stock index, etc, etc, etc. A simple BASIC income annuity or a deferred income annuity is a good retirement tool for some people. It is a good way to convert some or all of your retirement savings into a lifetime income. For me it was the right move. We had NO pension or other retirement....just our own personal assets. We both come from families where people routinely live into their 90's. By using a series of INCOME ANNUITIES....we have now.......locked in.......a retirement income that allows us to NEVER have to use our stock market money for routine living expenses....for life. Between Social Security and the annuities...we have established an income that we can NEVER outgrow.....for the next 20+ years....if one of us lives that long....which is probable. In fact that income allows us to ACTUALLY.....save.....$25,000 per year which we add to the stock account. BUT....in general....I DO agree with your statement.....as it applies to many of the OTHER sorts of annuities that are NOT simple income annuities.
I have avoided posting earlier today....I wanted to see how the markets......settled....over the first hour or so. WELL......looks great....so far. ALL the averages are up very nicely. We may be on track for a very nice day today after the past two days of a.....little.....blip in the markets UP DIRECTION.
I tend to agree with this little article on the direction of the SP500. Can the S&P 500 Index Keep Up its Impressive Run? https://finance.yahoo.com/news/p-500-index-keep-impressive-122445329.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The stock market has turned in an impressive performance so far this year, which is obvious just by looking at the level of the S&P 500 Index (SPX). What’s more impressive, however, is the proportion of stocks participating in the rally. The chart below considers current SPX stocks, and shows the percentage trading above their 200-day moving average. It recently surpassed 95% for the first time since 2013. It’s typically considered a bullish sign when breadth is high during a rally, but can it be too high? Maybe we can determine if there’s an exhaustion point. Also, I’ll look at the breadth data a few more ways. chart 1 Going Forward With the Index I always anticipate investors asking this question: “What happens next?” The best I can do is show what has tended to happen in the past. The tables below show how the SPX performed after various readings of the percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average. Currently, over 95% of stocks are above that moving average, so the current reading is in that last row which I bolded in the table. The next six months tend to be weaker. The average return was 1.9% and the 57% positive rate is the worst of all the brackets. The returns over the next year, however, tend to be much better. The S&P 500 averaged a return of 8.7% over the next 12 months with a remarkable 97% of the returns positive. This suggests some potential short-term weakness, with longer-term strength. chart 2 Here’s an SPX chart back to 2000 showing times the percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average reached 90%. Before 2020, there wasn’t a signal since 2013, despite the market's strength. The chart shows a lot of signals before some short-term pullbacks which lines up with the numbers above. chart 3 This next chart really caught my eye. It is a chart showing where the average stock is in relation to its 200-day moving average. The average stock in the S&P 500 is about 20% above the moving average. That is the highest it has been since late 2009 after stocks rebounded off their financial crisis lows. In this sense, stocks rebounding now after the Covid-19 crash are looking a lot like when they rebounded after the financial crisis. Hopefully, this means we’re in the beginning stages of another decade long bull market. chart 4" MY COMMENT I am not a fan of Technical Analysis......but.....I consider the above semi-technical. Regardless of what you call it.....I do agree with MOST of the commentary above. The ONLY part I do NOT agree with is any prediction of short term weakness. The pandemic has put us in a medium term situation that is UNPRECEDENTED. The current......artificial and abnormal.....situation created by the voluntary economic shutdown.....has put us in a situation of MASSIVE earnings growth over the next year or two for the BIG CAP stock universe. An EXTREMELY BULLISH environment for longer term investors.
Talk about the red hot housing market....we are seeing all this and mush more in our area. Bidding wars heat up amid red-hot housing market Buyers are doing things they’ve never done before to get their offers to stand out https://www.foxbusiness.com/real-estate/bidding-wars-heat-up-amid-red-hot-housing-market (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Homebuyers are taking unprecedented measures to make their offers stand out to sellers as the red-hot real estate market booms. Prospective homeowners are going as far as offering over-asking prices, dropping contingencies for inspections and appraisals and closing on the home within 30 days, FOX Business’ Gerri Willis said on "Cavuto Coast-to-Coast." As market competition stiffens, data from Redfin showed that between September 2020 and February 2021, nearly 18% of successful offers waived the appraisal contingency, while 13% waived home inspection contingencies. The trend comes as the real estate market is seeing an uptick in sales amid the coronavirus pandemic, with houses often getting several offers each. The median price of a home is currently at the highest level in history, hovering around $353,000 — a 17% increase from a year ago. Home buyers are doing everything they can to make their offer stand out as the real estate market is booming. FOX Business' Gerri Willis with more. Escalator clauses, which allow a seller to increase a suggested purchase price in order to secure the bid, are also being offered. "They're doing escalation clauses to beat whatever was the highest offer. They're doing everything and anything they can because... every single property, pretty much, is getting multiple offers and some of them, as many as 20 or 30 offers on each property," Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices CEO Candace Adams told Willis. MY COMMENT We are seeing ALL the above....and more....in our area. Some homes are receiving over 100 offers. There is....of course.....a danger that some people are going to end up being UPSIDE DOWN if the market mania ends....or...at some point we see prices drop back to more normal levels. Time will tell if these prices and values can STICK. I tend to think that this hot market WILL last for a significant number of years......at least in areas like mine...that are extremely hot and being driven by a HUGE influx of people moving here with HUGE amounts of money and very high paying jobs. Most buyers are PROBABLY safe....if.....they are realistic about the payment they can afford.....their current job.....and....the length of time they will stay in the home. EVEN with a drop to UNDER-WATER status....buyers that are realistic about these factors will be just fine after a few years in MOST parts of the country. I remember very well the LIAR-LOAN market boom.....back in the 2008 time period. That situation was.....VERY.....different than what we are seeing now.
I just looked at my primary account for the first time today. I did not expect MASSIVE gains.....and there was no surprise. A nice moderate gain day today....so far. Google...(-0.75%) ......and....PG.....(-0.54%)...are my ONLY red stocks at the moment. Everything else has a moderate gain today.....nothing too crazy. Nice to see after the drop the past couple of days. In fact I would consider the past two days as....IRRATIONAL. MEDIA....fear mongering taking hold of the markets for a couple of days. Along with......trading activity and profit taking and pulling money out..... by the so called "professionals"......while the retail investors continue to put money into the markets. As a long term investor....I TRUST the market direction being shown by RETAIL INVESTORS ACTIONS.....a lot more than I trust anything being done by the short term professionals. In fact......usually......I dont trust ANYTHING being done by the "professionals".
I STRONGLY believe in the POWER of the.......re-opening and re-flation......of the US economy over the next 1-2 years. HERE are a couple of views on this topic. I happen to agree with both....although......I do NOT agree with the comments on the tech stocks in the second article.........I agree with the rest of the commentary in the article. (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) JPMorgan's quant guru says traders are missing an opportunity to buy high-upside stocks pegged to the economic reopening https://markets.businessinsider.com...cyclicals-economy-reopening-2021-4-1030325047 "Investors are underestimating the imminent move higher in cyclical stocks that are poised to benefit from a reopened economy, according to JPMorgan. A staggered global economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic will prolong the reopening trade, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic said in a Tuesday note. "As the COVID-19 recovery takes place, reopening, reflation and inflation themes, and value likely will significantly outperform growth and defensives," Kolanovic said. The reopening trade has stalled in recent weeks, with a decline in interest rates and the volatility index fueling outperformance in high-growth technology stocks relative to cyclical stocks that are poised to benefit from a reopening of the economy. But JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic said investors are missing a big opportunity to load up on stocks that have significant upside ahead, according to a Tuesday note. Kolanovic expects the reopening trade to pick up where it left off in March and accelerate into late spring and summer. Sectors poised to benefit from this dynamic include energy, financials, materials, industrials, and small caps, according to the note. "These developments are not priced in, as we can see a strong reaction on incremental news flow related to reopening and COVID-19," Kolanovic explained. A big move is imminent for the reopening trade, based on a decline in COVID-19 cases in the US and Europe, the fast pace of vaccinations, and seasonal tailwinds in the northern hemisphere, according to the note. "We believe that the reopening and reflation trade will resume with a move that will be bigger than we saw early this year," Kolanovic said. And a staggered global recovery from the pandemic will prolong the reflation trade and prevent yields from surging too fast, which would be welcomed by the stock market. "Given our view on reopening, reflation and factors, and the significant pullback in the reopening theme over the last few weeks, we think investors should buy reopening epicenter stocks and sectors," Kolanovic concluded. The analysis from JPMorgan is aligned with the views of Fundstrat's Tom Lee, who has been recommending investors stick to the epicenter trade in recent months on the back of a fully reopened economy." AND Tech stocks' market leadership may be over and investors aren't 'bullish enough about the reopening', says Fundstrat's Tom Lee https://markets.businessinsider.com...30151645?utm_source=markets&utm_medium=ingest "Fundstrat's Tom Lee says tech stock's market leadership is fading as energy, financials, and cyclicals takeover. The Head of Research at Fundstrat argued investors aren't "bullish enough about the reopening." Lee sees the reopening of the US economy post-pandemic as akin to a "post-war reconstruction period with government stimulus." Tech stocks' market leadership may be fading and investors aren't "bullish enough about the reopening," according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee. Lee made an appearance on CNBC's "Fast Money" on Wednesday. In the interview, he said he sees tech stocks' market leadership fading as the post-pandemic reopening gets underway. "I think tech's leadership, which was so astounding for the past decade, I think we're seeing a new leadership emerge," Lee said. The managing partner and head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors argued energy, financials, and cyclicals are leading the way now. And according to Lee, that means "a vigorous economic recovery is underway." Lee argued that the leadership of cyclicals will hurt tech and growth focused stocks going forward as well. "These cyclicals could turn into growth stocks which means traditional growth stocks aren't as shiny and interesting," he said. Lee also expects a faster reopening than other observers, arguing "people aren't bullish enough about the reopening," although he noted that "nobody can say COVID has been vanquished." Lee said although his reopening bullishness might be looked at as a "contrarian view" he sees the current era as a type of "post-war reconstruction period with government stimulus." He added that is "extremely boomy for real investment spending which is the biggest multiplier to GDP." Lee isn't alone in the crowded reopening trade, but his somewhat bearish view on tech stocks is a shift from the norm. Lee has been a fan of tech stocks, and in particular Big Tech, for some time. The head of research at Fundstrat even called big tech companies "unkillable businesses" in an interview in June of last year. For now though, Lee recommends avoiding the names. His view isn't shared by all, though. Analyst Dan Ives from Wedbush Securities said in a note to clients on Wednesday that he believes "tech stocks have another 25%+ upward move in the cards over the coming year led by FAANG, cloud, and cybersecurity names despite this risk-off moment on the Street."" MY COMMENT I agree....in general....with both of the views above.....except for.....the tech comments. I DO agree that the current re-opening is being DISRESPECTED by many and WILL be much larger and much stronger than is being anticipated at the moment. One sign of this is.....the continued...... federal government fear mongering of the pandemic and push to NOT reopen immediately....even though at least 50% of the population has now been vaccinated or has had covid. The CAUTIOUS attitude on the part of government will continue to cause fear and timidity on the part of much of the population......and politicians..... and will lead to many states......like New York and California holding back their re-openings. I see this a very positive indicator of many....... UNDERESTIMATING......the EXPLOSIVE re-opening that is ACTUALLY going to happen. In addition.....the past two days.....show the spookiness of the markets. There is NOT a significant positive attitude out there.....investors are STILL very jumpy an skittish. A very POSITIVE indicator for the future. EARNINGS.....will continue to BLOW AWAY the estimates......and.....the BIG CAP world and TECH stocks.....will greatly benefit as investors come to accept the.......FACT......that these stocks are STILL going to be the MASSIVE LEADERS of the USA economy going forward for MANY YEARS. There is a reason that these companies represent about 25% of the SP500......they have been DOMINANT businesses for many many years now. THAT....... is NOT going to MAGICALLY change any time soon.
Thank you for the welcome. I'm not sure how I ended up on this forum but this particular thread has become my daily "go-to." I enjoy everyone's updates and your articles. I too am a long-term investor, although I am using the word "investor" loosely. lol
WELL......I am going to let the markets do their thing. Nothing more I can do at the moment......or any time soon....since I am very long term and have NO desire to micro-manage accounts.
GREAT to have you here Live&Learn. There are a lot more LONG TERM INVESTORS than people realize....a HUGE SILENT MAJORITY. We rarely get breathless media attention......and.....it does not make for a sexy story like the GameStop and Reddit "stuff". BUT....in reality....."WE" are the GUTS and FOUNDATION of the markets. Now for some SHAMELESS PROMOTION......please refer your family, friends, co-workers, etc, etc to this site. We need all the activity we can get. It will make for a better experience for us all.
OK.....that was a nice day today.....a good break away from the negativity of Monday and Tuesday. Like everyone.....I was green today.......a nice medium level gain. For the second time lately.....I was dead even with the SP500 today. I have not been following the markets since this morning....but....just looking at the averages...it looks like there was good strength going into the afternoon and the close. A......good omen....for tomorrow. my ONLY two red holdings today.....Google (-0.03%) and PG (-0.65%).
