Since I own a bit of TESLA...I find this little article interesting. Tesla is now sitting on $2.5 billion of bitcoin https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/28/tesla-is-now-sitting-on-2point5-billion-of-bitcoin.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Tesla is sitting on roughly $2.5 billion worth of bitcoin, according to a securities filing, giving the automaker a significant gain on paper just a few months after investing. The automaker said its investment in the volatile cryptocurrency was worth $2.48 billion at the end of March. The company announced earlier this year that it had purchased $1.5 billion worth of bitcoin and planned to accept it as payment for vehicles. Tesla said Monday it registered a net gain of $101 million from sales of bitcoin during the quarter, helping to boost its net profits to a record high in the first quarter. That figure included a $27 million impairment and $128 million in realized gains, according to Wednesday’s filing. Tesla does not account for bitcoin as a mark-to-market asset, meaning it only recognizes an earnings benefit if it sells to lock in the gains. Bitcoin was trading near $59,000 on the final day of March, slightly above its price Wednesday morning. The crypto asset has swung widely in the intervening weeks, trading well above $60,000 before falling sharply to below $50,000. Shares of Tesla were down 1.6% in premarket trading Wednesday. The stock, which has been one of the best performers in recent years, has dropped more than 15% in the past three months." MY COMMENT Interesting and nice to see money being made....but a sideshow. The key for the company and stock will continue to be the results from........ACTUALLY......manufacturing and selling cars, batteries, and tech.
Lets talk about.....INFLATION. I have had a NAGGING memory.....over the past month or two..... that in the 1980's we were considering a healthy level of inflation to be about 4%. That is my memory. I also remember talk back than of inflation being too low at the 2% level. So....when or how did we get to the point now that inflation is a danger if it gets up to 2% or 2.5%? My personal view....this is ridiculous. My opinion......even inflation at 2% or into the mid 2's is borderline deflationary. I decided to look back at the 1980's.....the REGAN BOOM years from 1984 to 1989 to see if my memory of inflation during that time was accurate. I looked at the MONTHLY inflation rate for the years 1984 to 1989.....the peak years of the REGAN BOOM. Here is the data by year.....the low of the year and the high of the year. 1984 - Inflation ranged from a low of 4.05% to a high of 4.8%. 1985 - inflation ranged from a low of 3.5% to a high of 3.77%. 1986 - inflation ranged from a low of 1.49% to a high of 3.9%. 1987 - inflation ranged from a low of 1.46% to a high of 4.53%. 1988 - inflation ranged from a low of 3.94% to a high of 4.25%. 1989 - inflation ranged from a low of 4.34% to a high of 5.36%. The low end of the ranges...month by month...above were NOT the norm for those years. In the MAJORITY of the months and years from 1984 to 1989 inflation was between 3.25% and 4.75%. In FACT what was considered healthy and normal inflation back in the 1980's BOOM was in the neighborhood of 4%. The date....for what it is worth shows that in the 1980's the average inflation rate was 5.82%....this partly reflects the high inflation years of the early 1980's. The LONG TERM AVERAGE for inflation in the USA.....at least from the data source that i used is about.....3.18%. SOMEHOW.....we have gotten to the point where NOW inflation is supposed to be HISTORICALLY LOW.....that is NOT healthy for the economy....the current view of where inflation should be is.....borderline....deflation. My vies is........just as in the REGAN BOOM.....a "NORMAL" level of inflation that is healthy and reflects a good business environment should be in the 3.5 to 4.0% range. HERE is the rate by year: 1966 3.5% 1967 3.0% 1968 4.7% 1969 6.2% 1970 5.6% 1971 3.3% 1972 3.4% 1973 8.7% 1974 12.3% 1975 6.9% 1976 4.9% 1977 6.7% 1978 9.0% 1979 13.3% 1980 12.5% 1981 8.9% 1982 3.8% 1983 3.8% 1984 3.9% 1985 3.8% 1986 1.1% 1987 4.4% 1988 4.4% 1989 4.6% 1990 6.1% 1991 3.1% 1992 2.9% 1993 2.7% 1994 2.7% 1995 2.5% 1996 3.3% 1997 1.7% 1998 1.6% 1999 2.7% 2000 3.4% 2001 1.6% 2002 2.4% 2003 1.9% 2004 3.3% 2005 3.4% 2006 2.5% 2007 4.1% 2008 0.1% 2009 2.7% 2010 1.5% 2011 3.0% 2012 1.7% 2013 1.5% 2014 0.8% 2015 0.7% 2016 2.1% 2017 2.1% 2018 1.9% 2019 2.3% The above figures show pretty well the ABNORMAL recent time period from about 2008 to now when we have been in a DEFLATIONARY ENVIRONMENT. The current OBSESSION with inflation and where people NOW think it should be is.....NOT in line with the historical norm OR what is healthy for the economy.
For those that want more data.....here is the source for the above.......for each year it shows the YOY inflation rate.......the fed funds rate.......the GDP growth.......and events impacting inflation that year: US Inflation Rate by Year from 1929 to 2023 How Bad Is Inflation? Past, Present, Future https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-inflation-rate-history-by-year-and-forecast-3306093 Year Inflation Rate YOY - Fed Funds Rate* - Business Cycle (GDP Growth) - Events Affecting Inflation 1929 0.6% NA August peak Market crash 1930 -6.4% NA Contraction (-8.5%) Smoot-Hawley 1931 -9.3% NA Contraction (-6.4%) Dust Bowl 1932 -10.3% NA Contraction (-12.9%) Hoover tax hikes 1933 0.8% NA Contraction ended in March (-1.2%) FDR's New Deal 1934 1.5% NA Expansion (10.8%) U.S. debt rose 1935 3.0% NA Expansion (8.9%) Social Security 1936 1.4% NA Expansion (12.9%) FDR tax hikes 1937 2.9% NA Expansion peaked in May (5.1%) Depression resumes 1938 -2.8% NA Contraction ended in June (-3.3%) Depression ended 1939 0.0% NA Expansion (8.0% Dust Bowl ended 1940 0.7% NA Expansion (8.8%) Defense increased 1941 9.9% NA Expansion (17.7%) Pearl Harbor 1942 9.0% NA Expansion (18.9%) Defense spending 1943 3.0% NA Expansion (17.0%) Defense spending 1944 2.3% NA Expansion (8.0%) Bretton Woods 1945 2.2% NA Feb. peak, Oct. trough (-1.0%) Truman ended WWII 1946 18.1% NA Expansion (-11.6%) Budget cuts 1947 8.8% NA Expansion (-1.1%) Cold War spending 1948 3.0% NA Nov. peak (4.1%) 1949 -2.1% NA Oct trough (-0.6%) Fair Deal, NATO 1950 5.9% NA Expansion (8.7%) Korean War 1951 6.0% NA Expansion (8.0%) 1952 0.8% NA Expansion (4.1%) 1953 0.7% NA July peak (4.7%) Eisenhower ended Korean War 1954 -0.7% 1.25% May trough (-0.6%) Dow returned to 1929 high 1955 0.4% 2.50% Expansion (7.1%) 1956 3.0% 3.00% Expansion (2.1%) 1957 2.9% 3.00% Aug. peak (2.1%) Recession 1958 1.8% 2.50% April trough (-0.7%) Recession ended 1959 1.7% 4.00% Expansion (6.9%) Fed raised rates 1960 1.4% 2.00% April peak (2.6%) Recession 1961 0.7% 2.25% Feb. trough (2.6%) JFK's deficit spending ended recession 1962 1.3% 3.00% Expansion (6.1%) 1963 1.6% 3.5% Expansion (4.4%) 1964 1.0% 3.75% Expansion (5.8%) LBJ Medicare, Medicaid 1965 1.9% 4.25% Expansion (6.5%) 1966 3.5% 5.50% Expansion (6.6%) Vietnam War 1967 3.0% 4.50% Expansion (2.7%) 1968 4.7% 6.00% Expansion (4.9%) Moon landing 1969 6.2% 9.00% Dec. peak (3.1%) Nixon took office 1970 5.6% 5.00% Nov. trough (0.2%) Recession 1971 3.3% 5.00% Expansion (3.3%) Wage-price controls 1972 3.4% 5.75% Expansion (5.3%) Stagflation 1973 8.7% 9.00% Nov. peak (5.6%) End of gold standard 1974 12.3% 8.00% Contraction (-0.5%) Watergate 1975 6.9% 4.75% March trough (-0.2%) Stop-gap monetary policy confused businesses and kept prices high 1976 4.9% 4.75% Expansion (5.4%) 1977 6.7% 6.50% Expansion (4.6%) 1978 9.0% 10.00% Expansion (5.5%) 1979 13.3% 12.00% Expansion (3.2%) 1980 12.5% 18.00% Jan. peak (-0.3%) Recession 1981 8.9% 12.00% July trough (2.5%) Reagan tax cut 1982 3.8% 8.50% November (-1.8%) Recession ended 1983 3.8% 9.25% Expansion (4.6%) Military spending 1984 3.9% 8.25% Expansion (7.2%) 1985 3.8% 7.75% Expansion (4.2%) 1986 1.1% 6.00% Expansion (3.5%) Tax cut 1987 4.4% 6.75% Expansion (3.5%) Black Monday crash 1988 4.4% 9.75% Expansion (4.2%) Fed raised rates 1989 4.6% 8.25% Expansion (3.7%) S&L Crisis 1990 6.1% 7.00% July peak (1.9%) Recession 1991 3.1% 4.00% Mar trough (-0.1%) Fed lowered rates 1992 2.9% 3.00% Expansion (3.5%) NAFTA drafted 1993 2.7% 3.00% Expansion (2.8%) Balanced Budget Act 1994 2.7% 5.50% Expansion (4.0%) 1995 2.5% 5.50% Expansion (2.7%) 1996 3.3% 5.25% Expansion (3.8%) Welfare reform 1997 1.7% 5.50% Expansion (4.4%) Fed raised rates 1998 1.6% 4.75% Expansion (4.5%) LTCM crisis 1999 2.7% 5.50% Expansion (4.8%) Glass-Steagall repealed 2000 3.4% 6.50% Expansion (4.1%) Tech bubble burst 2001 1.6% 1.75% March peak, Nov. trough (1.0%) Bush tax cut, 9/11 attacks 2002 2.4% 1.25% Expansion (1.7%) War on Terror 2003 1.9% 1.00% Expansion (2.9%) JGTRRA 2004 3.3% 2.25% Expansion (3.8%) 2005 3.4% 4.25% Expansion (3.5%) Katrina, Bankruptcy Act 2006 2.5% 5.25% Expansion (2.9%) Bernanke became Fed Chair 2007 4.1% 4.25% Dec peak (1.9%) Bank crisis 2008 0.1% 0.25% Contraction (-0.1%) Financial crisis 2009 2.7% 0.25% June trough (-2.5%) ARRA 2010 1.5% 0.25% Expansion (2.6%) ACA, Dodd-Frank Act 2011 3.0% 0.25% Expansion (1.6%) Debt ceiling crisis 2012 1.7% 0.25% Expansion (2.2%) 2013 1.5% 0.25% Expansion (1.8%) Government shutdown. Sequestration 2014 0.8% 0.25% Expansion (2.5%) QE ends 2015 0.7% 0.50% Expansion (3.1%) Deflation in oil and gas prices 2016 2.1% 0.75% Expansion (1.7%) 2017 2.1% 1.50% Expansion (2.3%) Core inflation rate 1.7% 2018 1.9% 2.50% Expansion (3.0%) Core rate 2.2% 2019 2.3% 1.75% Expansion (2.2%) Core rate 2.3% 2020 1.2% 0.25% Contraction (-2.4%) Forecast: Core rate 1.4% Impact of COVID 2021 1.8% 0.25% Expansion (4.2%) Forecast: Core rate is 1.8% 2022 1.9% 0.25% Expansion (3.2%) Forecast: Core rate is 1.9% 2023 2.0% 0.25% Expansion (2.4%) Forecast: Core rate is 2.0%
Now do a chart with all the times they promised us a dotcom bubble starting with the beginning of this year lol
Red today.....as expected. And got beat by the SP500 by .34%. Now slightly below my all time high. The ONLY stocks that I had in the green today were Amazon, Google, and PG. This week is tending to be a.....wasted week. GREAT earnings from my stocks that have reported....but....no follow through by the markets. Just too many distractions and turmoil this week. This ENTIRE earnings season may turn out to be the same....great earnings...but too much other STUFF going on. As I like to say....money in the bank....sooner or later these earnings will have a cumulative impact and the companies will be up in response......just not right now.
Off to yet another rehearsal. At least I now have 12 shows over the next couple of months. That is my.....proof.....of the re-opening. SO....I will miss the big event of the day.....no not the speech....the APPLE earnings. I will not waste my time on the speech.....no doubt.....I will be able to read all about it tomorrow.
HERE are the earnings from APPLE.....a blowout as expected.....amazing company. Apple reports another blowout quarter with sales up 54%, authorizes $90 billion in share buybacks https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/28/apple-aapl-earnings-q2-2021.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points Apple reported a blowout quarter on Wednesday, announcing company wide sales up 54% higher than last year, and significantly stronger profits than Wall Street expected. Apple did not issue official guidance for what it expects in the quarter ending in June. Apple authorized $90 billion in share buybacks. Apple reported a blowout quarter on Wednesday, announcing company wide sales up 54% higher than last year, and significantly stronger profits than Wall Street expected. Apple stock rose over 4% at one point in extended trading. Apple reported double-digit growth in every single one of its product categories, and its most important product line, the iPhone, was up 65.5% from last year. Its Mac and iPad sales did better, with its computers up 70.1% and iPad sales growing nearly 79% on an annual basis. Apple said it would increase its dividend by 7% to $0.22 per share and authorized $90 billion in share buybacks, which is significantly higher than last year’s $50 billion outlay and 2019′s $75 billion. Here’s how Apple did versus Refinitiv estimates: EPS: $1.40 vs. $0.99 estimated Revenue: $89.58 billion vs. $77.36 billion estimated, up 53.7% year-over-year iPhone revenue: $47.94 billion vs. $41.43 billion estimated, up 65.5% year-over-year Services revenue: $16.90 billion vs. $15.57 billion estimated, up 26.7% year over year Other Products revenue: $7.83 billion vs. $7.79 billion estimated, up 24% year-over-year Mac revenue: $9.10 billion vs. $6.86 billion estimated, up 70.1% year-over-year iPad revenue: $7.80 billion vs. $5.58 billion estimated, up 78.9% year-over-year Gross margin: 42.5% vs. 39.8% estimated Apple did not issue official guidance for what it expects in the quarter ending in June. It hasn’t provided revenue guidance since the start of the pandemic, citing uncertainty. This is Apple’s second quarter in a row with double-digit growth in all product categories. Apple CFO Luca Maestri told analysts that the company expects June quarter revenue to rise by double digits year-over-year, although it faces some supply shortages due to the worldwide chip shortage. Apple has said in the past months that its business has been boosted by the pandemic as consumers and businesses bought computers to work and entertain themselves while at home. But Apple’s strong results in the quarter suggest that the trend may persist as more economies open up. Or, as Apple CEO Tim Cook said in a statement: “This quarter reflects both the enduring ways our products have helped our users meet this moment in their own lives, as well as the optimism consumers seem to feel about better days ahead for all of us.” Mac sales were up 70%, and Cook said that the result was “fueled by” the company’s introduction of its Mac laptops that used its own M1 chips for longer battery life, instead of processors sold by Intel. iPad sales were up nearly 79% year-over-year. Neither of those results include iPad Pro or iMac models the company announced in March, which are expected to drive additional demand. “We’re seeing strong first-time buyers on the Mac … it continues to run just south of 50%,” Cook told CNBC’s Josh Lipton. “And, in China, it’s even higher than that … it’s more around two-thirds. And that speaks to people preferring to work on the Mac.” Apple’s iPhone also reported strong results this quarter, quelling fears that the current annual cycle could slow down. Last year, Apple released iPhones with a new exterior design and 5G support, which many investors believed could prompt a major upgrade cycle, which this quarter’s results indicate. In greater China, which includes the mainland, Hong Kong, and Taiwan, Apple’s revenue increased over 87% year-over-year to $17.73 billion, although the comparison is to a quarter last year in which China was largely shut down in the early days of the pandemic. Every other geographical category, including the Americas and Europe, were also up on an annual basis. Apple’s high-margin services business, including iCloud, App Store, and subscriptions like Apple Music, also showed 26.7% growth. One metric that Apple uses to show the growth in services is the number of subscriptions it has, which not only include its own subscriptions like Apple One, but also subscriptions through its App Store. “We now have over 660 million paid subscriptions across the services on the platform, and that’s up 40 million from the previous quarter, which is an acceleration from 35 million,” Cook told CNBC. However, Apple’s App Store has been challenged by lawmakers and companies that say it costs too much and has too much power. A closely-watched trial with Fortnite maker Epic Games over App Store policies kicks off next week. “The App Store has been an economic miracle. Last year, the estimates are that there was over a half a trillion dollars of economic activity because of the store. And, so, this has been just an economic gamechanger for not only the United States, but several countries around the world. And, we’re going to go in and tell our story. And we’ll see where it goes. But, we’re confident,” Cook told CNBC. Apple’s gross margin was also unusually elevated for the company. Most quarters, it tends to be in the 38% to 39% range, but in the quarter ending in March, Apple reported 42.5% margins. " MY COMMENT BLEW OUT in every category. A company operating fully and completely...regardless of the pandemic. It will be hard for Wall Street to come up with anything negative in these numbers. About the best they can do is try to project some DRAMA based on the failure to give official guidance.
So I know I’m gonna sound like a spoiled brat for saying it but the stock market is the only thing that’s actually quite doll in my life now... sure I’m up 5.67% ytd, sure I’m happy with it, but - and this has absolutely nothing to do with me being up almost 50% last year- EVERYTHING else that I own now is selling like crazy- business is at full capacity- so keeping all that in perspective you can see how I’m just “ok” with my portfolio.... And again, if our economy was doing bad, if businesses were down- believe me you wouldn’t hear a peep out of me- but all of these HUGE earning reports- booming sales all across every sector- and Wall Street is doing us a favor by dripping 1 percent here and taking 3/4 percent there- BO-RING! Not a rant, no complaint - just - meh Happy investing everyone but I know where I’m going to be tomorrow morning - fishing!
Yeah Zukodany....that is about it for the moment. Earnings are being ignored for politics, taxes, and spending plans. Yes....long term investing is.....BORING. BUT....being at 5.67% on your money after just four months....or in my case....at 8% on my money after just four months.......actually amazing. Project those returns out for a year.....and...potentially......even more amazing. Consider your stock account as the steady counter-balance to the rest of the INSANITY.....at the moment. Or....the alternative is to take some of that stock money and invest it in the comic books or other categories of business that are booming. Nothing wrong with that......allocating capital to the best place among your various producing assets. For me there is no other choice.....I own my one piece of real property free and clear and I have no interest in other real estate. Annuities....I already have what I need. Art and collectables......we are very much......fully invested......in this category.....at least to the extent that we wish to be. So....for me it is the stock account or nothing.
I HOPE this little story is true. Rumors of an AMAZON stock split. It is just INSANE how the modern business is now refusing to do stock splits. The run up in share price DOES hurt shareholders. Amazon is a perfect example. I have NO DOUBT.....that a split would kick start the stock. Apple was one of the very few BIG CAP modern companies to embrace the stock split. If splits are in fact......NEUTRAL EVENTS.....why not. If splits are....NOT...neutral events and do generate gains for shareholders....why not. Could An Amazon Split Foreshadow Dow Jones Industrial Inclusion? https://finance.yahoo.com/news/could-amazon-split-foreshadow-dow-143641262.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Online retail giant Amazon.com is one of the most talked-about stocks this week with an upcoming earnings report and rumors of a share split announcement. What Happened: Fox Business panelist Charles Gasparino tweeted Monday that, according to traders he has spoken to, an Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) stock split could be likely, with an announcement coming as early as Thursday when the company reports first-quarter earnings. There has been no announcement from Amazon that it has explored a share split. A share split would follow moves from some of the largest companies like Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) and Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL), both of which recently completed splits when shares traded higher. “It’s just a rumor but if a split was announced this week, I would expect a significant rally in the shares, $300-plus,” said Dennis Dick, co-host of Benzinga’s PreMarketPrep. Shares of Tesla and Apple traded higher after the companies announced and completed stock splits, which means the announcement of a split from Amazon could be a move to watch for investors. "Many investors believe Bezos likes the status symbol of having a stock that trades above $3,470 a share," Gasparino and Eleanor Terrett wrote in a story for Fox Business. Why It’s Important: A stock split by Amazon to move shares from the current $3,000-plus share price into the triple digits could make the company more appealing to be included in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Gasparino hinted at a possible move by Amazon into the index with a split. Dick said this could make sense, as "the Dow is price weighted, meaning higher priced stocks have a higher weighting in the Dow.” The Dow Jones Industrial Average is one of the most well-known stock indexes that tracks 30 large companies. The index’s methodology of including companies based on share price and not market cap has likely kept Amazon out of the running. “A split solves that problem, so if a split were announced, I would expect an immediate pop and then maybe a continued move higher as traders would anticipate a likely Dow inclusion.” The Dow Jones Industrial Average does not change its holdings on a regular basis, so a potential Amazon announcement could take some time. The index made two changes in 2020, one change in 2019, one change in 2018 and one change in 2017. Some years — like 2010, 2011, 2014 and 2016 — see no changes to the index. “A split announcement from $AMZN could be the catalyst the stock needs in a push to $5,000.” AMZN Price Action: Shares of Amazon.com were trading 1.35% higher at $3,463.44 at last check Wednesday. MY COMMENT I do like Bezos as a leader and visionary manager......but...thinking having a $3000+ stock price is a status symbol is just...FANTASY. In the end.....the companies right now with the BEST management....Tesla and Apple........have both done splits. I have heard many many times from investors that they will not buy Amazon because the price per share is too high. Yes...you could buy fractional shares......but it is PURE HUMAN NATURE....to NOT want to buy something with thousands of your hard earned dollars and STILL have less than .....ONE share. The current ANTI-SPLIT mentality is just pure and simple......DUMB.
HERE....is another little article on the RUMOR of an AMAZON SPLIT. I am personally AMAZED that the majority of the media is ignoring this story.....even if it is speculative. Stock split rumor sends bullish options traders storming into Amazon https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/27/sto...ish-options-traders-storming-into-amazon.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "An Amazon stock split rumor sent options traders into a frenzy. The tech giant caught an initial bump higher in Monday’s session worth about $32 billion in market cap, which is larger than nearly half of the companies in the S&P 500. Traders spent the rest of the session betting, by and large, that the initial bump was signaling more gains ahead. “Amazon did trade above average call volume [on Monday], with calls outpacing puts by [a ratio of] about 3 to 1, and the most active options were the weekly 3,500-strike calls. Almost 16,000 of those were trading for nearly $40 a contract,” Michael Khouw, chief investment officer at Optimize Advisors, said Monday on CNBC’s “Fast Money.” Those contracts expire this Friday at a break-even stock price of $3,540, or just about 4% higher than where Amazon closed Monday’s session. If the company’s stock were to split before Friday’s expiration, those contracts would be converted based on the details of the split. For example, if the stock were to split five ways, one 3,500-strike call would become five 700-strike calls, each breaking even at $708. Amazon was trading slightly higher in Tuesday’s session. The company has not commented on the rumor." MY COMMENT As a shareholder.....I HOPE this is true. I guess we will find out next week. gives us a little something to look forward to next week and a little potential excitement.
As you can tell from the above posts......I am NOT watching the government speech. What a waste of time. A bunch of politicians on both sides....strutting around like peacocks. I guess I will now go and watch something on Netflix. I did skim the text of the speech a while back when it was released to see if there was any REAL CONTENT on taxes. NOPE....nothing at all specific. Just the usual platitudes we have been seeing for weeks on raising the top rate to about 39%. NOTHING more on any other taxes or tax issues.
Yes W that is exactly what I did... reallocated my investment capital across between real estate and stocks... I actually struggled with that decision earlier this year, because at the time my portfolio was kickin ass, and it still does, just not like last year. So the great majority of our investments sits in real estate properties, and when we fully implement the business side here in Ohio we will see exactly what kind of returns we’re looking at. If all goes well we will keep with that ratio. If it generates ONLY around 5-7% we may have to reconsider. Remember, with real estate there’s the annual value growth AND the monthly rental return. One goes to our pockets immediately and one grows annually and hopefully we never need to cash it. the comic book business is a speedy return, very little to non existent hassle and 100s of percent ROI, but in smaller amounts of course. We call it the fun money which pays all the bills and leaves a little for spending (keep in mind- in our businesses there are plenty of bills!) And again, just stunning to me that some of these companies that I invested in that are showing extraordinary earning results; enphase, Netflix, NOW - have literally SANK when the positive reports came in. Overall I’m happy with them and not planning to sell any of them in this lifetime, but going by the strong earnings, the positive markets and - surprisingly- no noise coming from the usual suspects, makes me very bored and not excited.
I am up .38% today in my stock account led by KMI, ENB, and CSSEP. My self-directed IRA is up .13% today led by RIO but the gains throughout the account were tiny. Stock account is up 8.15% ytd. I am expecting KMI to drop tomorrow since the 29th is the ex-dividend date so we'll see if I can gain anything tomorrow or if KMI drags me down. Update: I fixed the numbers above as the figures I gave last night apparently contained some morning trading data
There are some good lessons in this little article......especially the last paragraph. The Surprising Truth About This Year’s ‘Volatility’ Stocks actually haven’t been too rocky this year. https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...-surprising-truth-about-this-years-volatility (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "In just four short months, big headlines have barraged investors. The year began with the Georgia runoffs and Capitol insurrection, stirring political fears galore. Then came COVID waves, variants and Europe’s vaccine hiccups. The GameStop trading frenzy. Last month’s Archegos hedge fund collapse. Interest rates’ surge. Tax hike fears. The jam-packed news cycle may give you the impression markets have been unusually rocky these last few months. But no. Rather than outsized volatility, stocks have kept their cool—a timely reminder for investors to tune down attention-grabbing events, in our view. In terms of daily stock swings, 2021 has been relatively calm. Since 1928, when daily data begin, the S&P 500 has moved up or down by 1% or more on 34% of trading days. In 2021 so far? Just 30%, or 24, with only 3 daily moves bigger than 2% (up or down), far lower than the historical average of 11%. No daily percentage swing has exceeded 3% up or down this year. Globally, a similar story holds. For the MSCI World Index, daily moves of 1% or greater in either direction occur 23% of the time since daily data start in 1980. That is a right around this year’s 22% (17 days), but this year has seen far fewer days swinging more than 2%.[ii] There have been just two. Perhaps even more tellingly, most of those bigger daily moves have been up. Big down days—more than -1% declines—have been notably absent. Only 9 daily S&P 500 declines have exceeded -1% this year—11% of trading days, below the 17% historical average.[iii] For MSCI World, there have just been 6 to date in 2021, or 8% of trading days.[iv] The average is 11%. The combination of placid markets and seemingly tumultuous headlines highlights a couple of key investment lessons: One, no event has a pre-set market impact. Most often, stocks are very good at looking beyond the headline news—particularly those events that have garnered major media attention for a long time. We categorize the ongoing battle against COVID here. Markets are well aware that the pandemic isn’t over and won’t be for a substantial period. Yet forward-looking stocks are likely looking well past this, considering that has been widely known for some time. Second, don’t let the frequency of headlines and hype around a story persuade you it is all that huge for markets generally. Here we are thinking of Archegos and the GameStop saga. They were definitely “new” news in Q1, but despite being (arguably!) fascinating and market-related—fodder for great financial headlines—they lacked anything resembling the scope to affect broad markets materially. Now, while we remain bullish and expect this year to go well when all is said and done, we fully expect some short-term chop along the way. That is routine for markets. If there is, don’t assume something big and bad is approaching—a notion we think long-term investors should accept. Volatility can always strike for any or no reason. The existence of volatility—or the lack of volatility—doesn’t predict more volatility ahead, either. Volatility is ... volatile. Even in these more optimistic times, it isn’t hard to envision some folks reacting to volatility in counterproductive ways. During a rough patch, you could easily lock in losses by taking action. Then, getting back in can exact an additional emotional (and financial) toll if markets rise in the interim. In our experience, successfully timing exit and reentry points around or during volatile periods repeatedly is impossible. Attempting to do so could leave you poorer and short of your financial objectives. Remember: Short-term volatility is the price for reaping stocks’ long-term gains—a price that is likely worth paying if you need equity-like returns to finance your goals and needs. MY COMMENT This article is a mini-roadmap for long term investors. TODAY the financial media is......UNFORTUNATELY....taking the same path as all the other media.....sensationalism over fact. As an investor in the current media circus environment......you have to look past nearly EVERYTHING that is NOT absolute fact......in ANY media content. I look at a LOT of media content....every day. It is amazing the TOTAL HERD MENTALITY. Whatever the story of the day is.......it dominates ALL the media sites. Usually....the story lasts for a few days and than is NEVER heard from again. The ONLY good thing.....the MEDIA SHOUTING is so extreme that people now just tune it out. Of course.....if you want to be successful in your investing.....the ability to actually KNOW what is fact and what is IMPORTANT is critical.
Well a MILD rally today....at least so far. Stocks are finally TRYING to give some weight to AMAZING earnings that have been coming our daily. This ties in with the little article above. Everyone is off chasing after the latest media DRAMA.....and....as a result they IGNORE the REAL news that matters......BLOW OUT earnings. As I type this I see that the markets are NOW mixed with the DOW and the NASDAQ in the red. YES....this can be discouraging for investors that expect the short term market behavior to be RATIONAL. BUT.....short term IS NOT rational. It is INHERENTLY speculative and irrational.
There is no doubt that the attempt to raise the capital gains tax will FAIL to raise more money for government. In fact it is LIKELY to result in less money for government as the RICH become more focused on taxes and the simple way to avoid the new rates. Here is a little article on the topic: How To Legally Dodge Biden's Capital Gains Tax In Your Portfolio https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-...folio-how-to-legally-dodge-bidens/?src=A00220 (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "President Joe Biden's proposal to nearly double the capital gains tax rate to 39.6% is unnerving investors. But there's a legal way to delay — if not dodge — the tax hit: ETFs. Exchange traded funds' unique structure largely shields them from capital gains taxes on annual distributions. Thanks to how ETFs buy and sell securities inside of tradable baskets, there's almost never taxable capital gains distributions during the year. Mutual funds routinely pay investors capital gains distributions late in the year, which are immediately taxable when held in taxable accounts. Proposed hikes in capital gains aren't likely to affect most people. Taxpayers with annual incomes over $1 million are the target. And if you sell an ETF, as with any stock, the gain is still a taxable event. But the threat of rising capital gain tax rates is putting ETFs' tax efficiency over mutual funds top of mind. "Rightly or wrongly, investors and their advisors will become more tax-conscious," said Lara Crigger, managing editor of ETFTrends.com. "This will encourage investors to take a closer look at ETFs, which are far more tax efficient than mutual funds for most contexts." ETF Tax Efficiency Shines With Capital Gains Tax ETFs are usually more tax efficient than mutual funds, says Todd Rosenbluth, head of ETF and mutual fund research at CFRA. Why? ETFs' unique "in-kind mechanism" allows them to avoid incurring capital gains during the year. ETFs don't usually trigger a capital gains tax event for those who still own the ETF shares. Additionally, most stock ETFs are based on indexes, which do not buy or sell securities very often. Rosenbluth found that large U.S. stock ETFs usually trade just 4% of their positions annually. That means only three out of nearly 600 stock ETFs from Blackrock's iShares, Invesco, Charles Schwab, State Street Global Advisors and Vanguard passed along any capital gains to shareholders in 2020, Rosenbluth found. In contrast, mutual funds routinely shuffle 20% of their positions or more annually. That can generate taxable capital gains that must be passed on to the funds' owners each year. And more important, mutual funds facing redemptions must sell positions to cash out investors who redeem. This can gin up taxable capital gains distributions for the remaining mutual fund holders. Rosenbluth found 37 of T. Rowe Price's 39 domestic stock mutual funds passed along a capital gain to investors in 2020. That includes T. Rowe Price New Horizons (PRNHX), which distributed 9.2% of its net asset value to investors. The highest capital gains distribution among ETFs was iShares Evolved U.S. Innovative Healthcare (IEIH), at just 1.7% of its value. You don't pay a capital gains tax on individual stocks until you sell like ETFs, either. But it's easier to hold on to a diversified ETF for a long time than an individual stock. ETFs Don't Avoid All Capital Gains Tax But it's important to note that ETFs aren't completely immune from capital gains taxes, Crigger says. If you sell winning ETFs, you'll still likely owe capital gains tax on the gain. You decide the timing of when you incur ETF capital gains, though. With mutual funds, you don't control annual distributions. ETFs have another edge here, too. If you never sell ETFs and donate them at death to your family or charity, you can avoid capital gains taxes altogether, says Dave Nadig, director of research at ETFTrends.com. That's because the cost basis of the ETF is "stepped up" to the value upon your death. So when the beneficiary sells the ETF, there's no taxable event. Biden, though, is proposing to do away with this stepped-up basis rule for any gains over $1 million for individuals and $2.5 million per couple with real estate exemptions. Capital Gains Tax: Reality Vs. Fear The threat of higher capital gains tax rates is only heating up a shift to ETFs that's been going on for years. Do you know how to find top ETFs? Money flowed into stock ETFs in 20 of the past 25 months through the end of January, Nadig says. Money flowed out of stock mutual funds in 24 of those 25 months. And this year through April 14, $117 billion flowed out of stock mutual funds, Rosenbluth says. At the same time, more than $229 billion in new ETF issuance has taken place. It's true that most mutual funds are held in tax-deferred retirement accounts. And dividends on both ETFs and mutual funds are taxable when paid. But ETFs' tax edge is appealing, whether investors wind up paying the higher capital gains tax or not, Rosenbluth says. Biden's proposal for a capital gains tax rate hike "will likely impact a small universe of investors," Rosenbluth said. But Crigger adds: "Biden's tax proposal, in whatever form it takes, even if it never comes to fruition at all, will be a net gain for ETF assets. When people are motivated to take a closer look at the tax impact of their investments, they almost always gravitate toward ETFs." ETFs' Tax Shield None of the largest ETFs paid capital gains distributions in 2020 ETF Symbol Expense ratio Assets in billions 2020 capital gains distribution SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) 0.09% $359.9 $0 iShares Core S&P 500 (IVV) 0.03% 277.9 $0 Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTI) 0.03% 240.5 $0 Vanguard S&P 500 (VOO) 0.03% 220.5 $0 Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) 0.20% 163.9 $0 Sources: IBD, ETF.com, company reports" MY COMMENT I would guess that most on this board are not really worried about the increase in capital gains.....now. In the future...it will trickle down to more and more people and investors. As for those with incomes that put them at risk....it is very easy to manipulate when income comes in each year. SO....when anyone is going to sell an appreciated asset they will just manipulate their yearly income to be under $1MIL. People in this category often have a personal foundation. It is very easy to reduce income by donating to your own foundation....which than benefits your heirs and family members with income, jobs, access to foundation assets and perks, etc, etc. People in this income range are NOT STUPID.....they are not going to just sit there and pay the tax. NOW.....the little guy that happens to sell a business or a farm or a house that they have owned in a high real estate area.....they are NOT going to have the ability to manipulate things as much. On a personal level....once this all sorts out...especially any changes to the estate tax exemption and step up in basis.....I will evaluate the need for a visit for some estate planing changes.
Just looked at my account.....very slight green....I mean really slight. Of course APPLE and MICROSOFT are both down at the moment. AMAZING EARNINGS....totally irrelevant in the short term. EXACTLY....why I am NOT a short term investor. The short term markets are TOTALLY disconnected from reality......especially business reality. The longer term markets.....DO....reflect business reality.....and.....that is what I want.
THIS....is exactly where we are at the moment.....DRIFT...is exactly the right word for the current markets. Stock market news live updates: Stocks drift after hitting record highs as traders eye Biden's plans, earnings https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-april-29-2021-221727019.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stocks pared some gains after hitting record levels as investors considered a batch of stronger-than-expected earnings results from major companies and a sweeping set of proposals from President Joe Biden aimed at revamping the country's infrastructure and supporting families, children and students. The S&P 500 lost some steam after jumping to a record high of more than 4,200 just after market open. The Dow hugged the flat line, erasing gains of as many as 212 points earlier in the session, as shares of Merck (MRK) declined after missing earnings expectations. The Nasdaq held just slightly higher. Traders considered Biden's address to a joint session of Congress late Wednesday, during which he declared that "America is back on the move again" after a pandemic that devastated the U.S. economy and killed hundreds of thousands of individuals across the country. The address also served as a forum for him to tout his $2 trillion infrastructure plan and officially unveil a $1.8 trillion proposal aimed at supporting children, students and families, and which will be funded in part through tax increases on wealthy Americans. Earnings season has also continued to chug along. Shares of Apple (AAPL) gained after the company posted fiscal second-quarter results that easily exceeded expectations, with sales coming in better-than-expected across the Mac, iPad and especially the iPhone in the months following the launch of the 5G-enabled iPhone 12. Facebook (FB) shares also advanced after quarterly results showed a jump in both users and sales, with customers' advertising spending accelerating as the pandemic abates. The strong results from the mega-cap tech names adds to a parade of companies that have so far exceeded expectations this earnings season, with a pick-up in economic activity and consumer confidence driving a surge in corporate profits over the doldrums of last year. As of early Wednesday, companies comprising nearly half of the S&P 500's market capitalization had reported earnings results, with 83% of these corporations topping estimates, and by an average of 21.7%. Companies including Amazon (AMZN) are poised to report results on Thursday. Traders also considered the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy statement, which included no changes to policies but did highlight the recent improvements in U.S. economic conditions. In his press conference Wednesday afternoon, Fed Chair Jerome Powell doubled down on his messaging that the Federal Reserve was looking for substantial further progress toward its goals of maximum employment and price stability in the coming months, with these criteria needing to be met by actual economic results rather than mere projections for further improvement. "With no meaningful change to monetary policy or communication, this meeting was simply a message to market participants to sit back and observe as the economic recovery continues to unfold," Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist for Allianz Investment Management, said in an email Wednesday. "The Fed did acknowledge the pick-up in the pace of the economic recovery but came short of signaling any changes to policy at this stage in the cycle. It is difficult to argue the Fed’s position on inflation given the amount of slack that still exists in the labor market. However, if the recovery continues to gain strength, we expect the Fed will need to move away from peak policy accommodation." 11:06 a.m. ET: Stocks cut gains, Dow briefly turns slightly negative The three major indexes traded near the flat line Thursday intraday, erasing gains after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each hit record levels earlier in the session. The Dow turned slightly negative as a 5% drop in shares of Merck outweighed gains elsewhere in the index. Both Merck's first-quarter sales and profit missed expectations for the first quarter, bucking the trend of broad-based earnings beats across most major companies for first-quarter results. The health-care sector underperformed in the S&P 500 alongside the information technology and materials sectors. Communication services outperformed following strong earnings results from Facebook. 10:00 a.m. ET: Pending home sales rose for the first time in three months in March Pending home sales rose in March over February, posting a monthly advance for the first time since December as rising mortgage rates, tight inventory and inclement weather in February cooled some of the housing market's recent surge. Pending home sales increased by 1.9% in March following a downwardly revised drop of 11.9% in February, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday. The came in short of the 4.4% gain expected, however, according to Bloomberg consensus data. “The increase in pending sales transactions for the month of March is indicative of high housing demand,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said in a press statement. “With mortgage rates still very close to record lows and a solid job recovery underway, demand will likely remain high.”" MY COMMENT ACTUAL economic and business data remain EXTREMELY POSITIVE. The re-opening is going to take at least a year. We are going to be in this positive economic and business environment for a good couple of years. BUT....factors......outside business....that I commented on yesterday will weigh on the markets at times.....especially over the short term. Of course....this daily and weekly focus on the DRAMA news items is normal. YES.....long term investing....should be BORING. It is all about racking up yearly gains and compounding money based on those gains over the longer term.....5, 10, 15, 20......years. IMPATIENCE drives people to NOT be able to stand being long term. It is NOT.....SEXY....it is not....EXCITING......it does not satisfy your human brain. I would guess that many on this board are siting on gains.....year to date......of 4-9% or even more. That is for.....ONLY.....four months. If the year continues as it is now......a big "if"......we are looking at gains for the.......YEAR.....in the range of 15% to 25%. My prediction is about 22% to 26% for this year. It will be nice if we hit those levels of gains for the year.....but.......that is NOT necessary to generate BIG MONEY. I am happy to see yearly gains of anything over 10%. Rack up good gains of 11% or 13% or 15%....over the longer term and you are doubling your money FAR IN EXCESS of any other sort of investment vehicle....long term.
Well....I will be back to post some later today.....I will be out of touch with the markets till this evening. Not that they need my help.....ever. Today....in real life....it is out to lunch....than I have to leave for a show. A little 100 mile drive.....set up, sound check, and do the show......and back another 100 miles. I should be back here by about 10:30. I am hoping we dont get rained out....so far so good...since the show is outside. AND....through it all....my account continues......to make some money.....hopefully....... on its own without any help from me. Since.... I continue to be fully invested for the long term as usual.
