The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. oldmanram

    oldmanram Well-Known Member

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    It's probably a combination of the reason's noted below, and Bezos's vanity

    This is from an article on stock splits :

    Why Wouldn't a Company Split Its Stock?
    A very small study found that, on average, markets react positively to stock splits, but that doesn't mean splits have a real impact on the intrinsic value of the company.10 Unless the stock is facing liquidity issues, there may not be any compelling reason for a company to split its stock.


    Some companies prefer to avoid splitting because they believe a high stock price gives the company a level of prestige. A company trading at $1,000 per share, for example, will be perceived as more valuable even though the firm's market capitalization may be the same as a company whose shares trade at $50.

    me: There also ,used to be before fractional shares, the fact that only real large investors purchased these shares and thus the stock was less volatile. In other words "keeping the rif raff out of the pool"

    Good question WXYZ : Why doesn't someone ask him the next time they see him ?

    This is an excerpt from an interview with Anthony Chukumba a Loop Capital Market's analyst. answering that question.

    ANTHONY CHUKUMBA: That's a great question. Quite frankly, Jeff Bezos, I think, will probably not split his stock. Like you said, one of the biggest benefits for splitting your stocks is to get in more individual investors. Jeff Bezos really doesn't care all that much about that, quite frankly. And remember that there are some challenges just from an investor relations perspective when you split your stock and you have more shareholders. Jeff Bezos' attitude has always been, you know, either you understand what we're doing and you're on board and I want you as a shareholder, or you don't and you're not, and I really couldn't care less whether you buy our stock or not.

    me: and when you own all the balls on the court , you make the rules

    But I agree , a split would be great for investors
     
  2. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I agree oldmanram.

    In other words the REAL answer is the EGO of Bezos. There is no rational reason NOT to split....it would generally be good for shareholders....it would probably raise the value of the stock......AND....the company.....it would bring in money for the company. So in the term of the day......it would create shareholder value. BUT......because the founder has an EGO that is caught up in the ALLEGED prestige of a high price.....it does not happen.

    In the investing world of TODAY.....I dont think anyone in the slightest cares about or gives any weight to high stock price and prestige. Obviously the recent action of the shares proves that no one is seeing this company as PREMIER due to the share price.

    I do agree with the history that Amazon has of IGNORING all the noise and investing for the future of the business. I agree with their focus on growing the business....not getting all caught up in day to day "stuff" being pushed by outsiders, media, etc, etc.

    Of course.....I will NOT sell my shares.
     
  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    A MINOR scare story-line at the moment is supply shortages. I dont see any long or medium term relevance. This STUFF will quickly sort itself out........3-8 months......as usual.

    Little Lumber and Costly Chips: Inside The ‘Stuff’ Economy’s Pinch
    An investing perspective on these widely discussed supply shortages.

    https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...d-costly-chips-inside-the-stuf-economys-pinch

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Timber! Well, lumber to be precise. That is what businesses are in short supply of, along with semiconductors, copper and steel. With supply down and prices up, pundits globally are increasingly worried that the recovery from lockdowns is at risk. Demand may be hopping, but they warn that is no help if factories and builders can’t make enough gadgets and structures to meet it. We agree there are some challenges ahead, but a little perspective is in order. While this may present some headwinds to select areas of the economy, it seems overstated as a macroeconomic headwind. It is also well-known to stocks, sapping surprise power.

    Yes, it is true that if businesses can’t make things, people can’t buy them. Since the US calculates GDP by adding up all transactions in the public and private sector, when people can’t buy stuff, it detracts from growth. That is well-known math. But the keyword there is stuff. The US economy actually isn’t heavy on stuff—services accounts for the lion’s share of economic activity. In 2019, the last full year before lockdowns skewed the picture, sales of (or investment in) physical objects totaled 33.6% of GDP.[ii] That includes consumer spending on goods, residential real estate investment, commercial real estate investment and business investment in equipment—all things that, to varying degrees, might incorporate lumber, steel, copper or computer chips. Even last year, when goods consumption rose as GDP fell, the “stuff economy” was just 34.9% of GDP.[iii] So right off the bat, just one-third of GDP, give or take, is directly vulnerable to shortages.

    Then too, “shortage” is not synonymous with “none. Semiconductor foundries are still running flat-out, especially now that the Renesas plant shut down by a fire last month in Japan is back online. It should be at full capacity in July, according to the company’s estimates. Blast furnaces, copper mines and saw mills are also chugging away. Now, current capacity isn’t enough to satisfy demand, but that doesn’t mean production of physical goods and structures grinds to a halt. Instead, it means producers compete for a limited supply. Purchasing managers will have their work cut out for them as they navigate price increases and negotiate with vendors—vendors who are trying to juggle an entire roster of demanding clients. That means, for the time being, there will be winners and losers at the industry and company levels.

    While the cause of these winners and losers is new, it isn’t at all unusual for some segments of the economy to zig while others zag. Manufacturing output fell in 2016, but GDP grew. Oil production fell -49.8% (in value terms, not volume) in 2015 and 2016 combined, but—yes—GDP grew. Pockets of strength more than offset pockets of weakness. That is how it usually works in a strong economy. We also think it is likely to work that way this time around, given services’ size and relative insulation from these supply issues.

    As for markets, we think stocks generally look about 3 – 30 months ahead. Supply issues will plague some industries at the closer end of that window, but that isn’t new news. The semiconductor shortage has dotted headlines for months now. Lumber and metals shortages (and accompanying price spikes) are a bit newer, but markets deal with developments like this very efficiently. They also know how this story generally goes: Shortages drive prices up, high prices incentivize new production, and supply eventually rises to meet demand. This doesn’t happen overnight, but markets are good at anticipating the process. In the semiconductor world it has already started, with key manufacturers in the US and Taiwan announcing plans to build new foundries—which should be online in two years or so. New sawmills take about that long to come online, too.

    Mines take significantly longer, about 5 – 7 years, but we already have compelling evidence that prolonged copper shortages don’t prevent growth. The last big shortage occurred in the early 2000s, when China started a long infrastructure frenzy. GDP soared there and globally, and the Metals & Mining boom propelled Australia, Brazil and others for years. We aren’t arguing another such supercycle is in store now, as that is too long-term of a forecast. But it does again show that one business’s problem is another company’s opportunity, and the net result can be positive.

    Keep in mind, also, that low production isn’t the only reason supply is down. The US imports most of these materials and components—some from Canada, some from South America, some from overseas. A lot of Canadian lumber comes on trucks, and truck drivers are in short supply. Lumber, metals and chips coming from Australia and East Asia come on container ships, which face huge traffic jams at US ports right now due to the combination of high volume and short staffing, which stems from social distancing requirements. Those factors should ease relatively quickly, helping supply move faster and probably easing the shortage somewhat.

    In our view, the main lessons here are threefold. One, think like markets and look forward—look to the full range of that 3 – 30 window and consider carefully whether things are likely to be materially worse than everyone expects. Two, remember: Markets are efficient discounters of widely known information. This story dots headlines everywhere globally, suggesting its power to sway stocks is falling as we type. Three, diversify across sectors and geographic regions so that you benefit from the winners in this saga, like large Materials and Tech firms. Leave the fretting over the near-term losers to the headlines."

    MY COMMENT

    ACTUALLY.....this is exactly how the economy works and is supposed to work. there is demand for some product or item.....and....as a result the market rises up to fill that demand. That is called free market capitalism. The worst thing that can happen in this sort of situation is for government and others to get involved and disrupt the normal process. This is what DRIVES innovation and business entrepreneurs.

    BUT.....today....everything is a crises. Regardless.....business, leaders, and people will rise up and deal with these issues just as we have done for decades.
     
    #5403 WXYZ, May 6, 2021
    Last edited: May 6, 2021
  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I STILL see many many articles daily on inflation. SO....if that is "your" issue...here is a little bit of data for you.

    Stocks, Bonds, and Higher Inflation

    https://compoundadvisors.com/2021/stocks-bonds-and-higher-inflation

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "US inflation expectations continue to rise, now at their highest levels since 2008.

    [​IMG]
    If higher inflation is coming (see here for some signs), many investors are wondering how that will impact their portfolio. Let’s take a look at how stocks and bonds have performed historically under various levels of inflation…

    If we segment calendar year changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) into quintiles, we observe the following:

    • The lowest real equity returns have occurred in deflationary (quintile 1) and high inflation (quintile 5) environments while the highest real equity returns have occurred in periods of low (quintiles 2/3) to moderate (quintile 4) inflation.
    [​IMG]
    • The lowest real bond returns have occurred in high inflation (quintile 5) environments while the highest real bond returns have occurred in deflationary (quintile 1) and moderate inflation (quintile 4) environments.
    [​IMG]
    • From an economic perspective, we’ve seen higher odds of a recession and lower real GDP growth at both ends of the inflation spectrum, with deflationary environments (think Great Depression, 2008 recession) being the worst historically but high inflation environments (think 1970s and early 1980s) not far behind.
    [​IMG]
    Which quintile are we in today?

    With CPI up 2.6% over the past year, we’re right in the middle of the 3rd quintile, a so-called “Goldilocks” environment with inflation running neither too hot nor too cold. However, there is a strong potential for a shift to the 4th quintile in the coming months as sky-high consumer demand via stimulus payments exceeds existing supply.

    [​IMG]
    Powered by YCharts
    What does that mean for stocks and bonds?

    If high inflation is coming, history suggests a more difficult time for both stocks and bonds (lowest real returns on average were in the highest inflation quintile). But with inflation currently running at 2.6%, we’re not approaching that scenario just yet. It’s also important to note that inflation is just one of many factors that can influence the returns of stocks and bonds.

    In the short run, bond returns are most heavily dictated by the direction of interest rates and stock returns by the direction of investor sentiment (are investors willing to pay more or less for a given level of earnings?).

    With 10-Year Treasury yields still quite low (1.59%), if higher inflation rates are accompanied by rising interest rates (they typically are as there’s a high correlation between the two variables), this would suggest a more difficult road for bonds.

    On the stock side, the answer is less clear as you must forecast not only how much inflation will rise but also how investors will interpret such an increase. Thus far, they’ve viewed higher inflation as a bullish sign that economic growth and corporate earnings are set to boom. We’re already seeing that play out with S&P 500 EPS hitting new highs in Q1, and continued gains expected throughout the remainder of the year.

    [​IMG]
    But at a certain point, investors may begin to view inflation as running “too hot,” and begin to fear the Fed shifting away from its easy money policies (0% rates, QE). This, in turn, could lead to fears of an economic slowdown and a resulting contraction in multiples.

    If inflation doesn’t rise to the highest quintile, does that mean stocks can’t go down?

    Not at all. While the “goldilocks” quintiles (2-4) have historically shown higher returns and more positive years than inflationary/deflationary regimes, there are a number of exceptions.

    Most recently, stocks declined in 2000 (-9.2%), 2001 (-11.9%), and 2002 (22.1%) with CPI registering 3.4%, 1.6%, and 2.5% during those years (see appendix below for details).

    This should serve as a reminder that the level of inflation is only one of many factors influencing equity markets. There is no precise formula for predicting what stocks will do and when they’ll do it. Inflation is likely to move higher in the near term to levels we haven’t seen in quite some time, but what that means for stocks ultimately comes down to how investors interpret that move."

    MY COMMENT

    I dont invest or buy or sell according to general economic indicators. I buy or sell according to business fundamentals and results. I see a lot of CRAZY herd behavior at the moment in the markets. There are a HUGE number of young and new investors out there that view the markets as a big casino. People that are in it for the BIG SCORE.

    ACTUALLY....without going into my reasoning as to the cause.....I see many institutions including the stock markets and financial markets being DISRUPTED at the moment. That might be a good thing on some levels.....but.....if that disruption ends up destroying any rational basis for how the particular institution works it will be very difficult to put......HUMPTY DUMPTY....back together. It is......."possible"......not necessarily probable.......for a market like the stock markets to be overwhelmed by the behavior of massive numbers of "investors" to the point that the market has no RATIONAL BASIS.....to anything.... any longer.

    IF.....and it is doubtful.......but "if"......the above starts to escalate and turn the markets into an ACTUAL casino..... in my lifetime.....I will simply hide in the SP500 Index rather than individual stocks. I will hide there for as long as it is possible to make money. I suspect that would take me to the end of my life span and beyond.
     
  5. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    HERE is a little bit of good news for the general economy.....of course this is the ultimate short term snapshot.....one week. Obviously the trend remains in the RIGHT DIRECTION and will continue to do so for a good length of time going forward.
    New jobless claim fell to a fresh pandemic-era low of 498,000 last week

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/weekly-jobless-claims-week-ended-may-1-2021-pandemic-181819635.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)
    "New weekly jobless claims set a new pandemic-era low last week, falling below 500,000 for the first time since the start of the pandemic, with initial filings trending decidedly lower in recent weeks amid the pick-up in economic activity.

    The Department of Labor released its weekly report on new jobless claims Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here were the main metrics from the report, compared to consensus data compiled by Bloomberg:

    • Initial jobless claims, week ended May 1: 498,000 vs. 538,000 expected and 553,000 during the prior week
    • Continuing claims, week ended April 24: 3.690 million vs. 3.620 million expected and 3.660 million during the prior week
    Consensus economists expected initial unemployment filings to hold below 600,000 for a fourth straight week, dipping to the lowest level since mid-March 2020. Initial filings have slid over the course of the past year, pulling back sharply from a pandemic-era high of more than 6 million. New claims during the comparable week last year totaled nearly 3 million, but have held below 1 million since August 2020 as layoffs and other separations slowed.

    But while new filings decline, an elevated number of Americans remain unemployed. More than 16.5 million Americans were still receiving unemployment benefits across all programs as of mid-April, for a decrease of nearly 1 million from the previous week. That included more than 12 million Americans on the federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation program, which both expire in September. And based on the Labor Department's monthly non-farm payrolls report, the U.S. economy is still more than 8 million jobs short of its pre-pandemic levels from February 2020.

    On Friday, the Labor Department will give an updated snapshot of the labor market in April's monthly jobs report. Economists expect to see non-farm payrolls rose by a staggering 1 million during the month, which would mark the most since August. The unemployment rate likely fell to a pandemic-era low of 5.8% from 6.0% in March, but would still remain well above the pre-pandemic level of 3.5%. During the survey week for the monthly jobs report around the 12th of the month, initial jobless claims had dipped to 566,000.

    On Wednesday, ADP's closely watched monthly report on private payrolls showed 742,000 jobs were added back in April. While below consensus estimates, the figure still marked the greatest number of jobs added since September. And ADP's numbers have typically undershot the payrolls totals in the Labor Department's monthly jobs report over the past year, suggesting some upside for Friday's report.

    MY COMMENT

    These are....generally....good numbers but not very relevant since they only cover a week.

    OBVIOUSLY the economy and jobs have a long way to go. The re-opening is just starting. If you look at the states that are FULLY OPEN.....there are only a handful. The entire WEST COAST is still not open. Much of the EAST coast is NOT open yet. Much of the Mid-West is not open yet. I saw a map a few weeks ago.....there were about 10-15 fully open states.

    SO......with many places still closed or partially closed....there is HUGE pent up economic demand and activity to come. It will take at least 24 months to be fully realized. By "fully realized"......I mean.....however we end up. There is no way to know.......at this point......where unemployment and other economic measures will end up when it is all said and done. It could range from....STAGNANT........to....BOOMING. The greatest factor that will determine where we end up will be the amount of DRAG created by all levels and types of government as we move forward.
     
  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    We are seeing a little repeat of the mini-correction that we saw earlier in the year. The DOW is doing well but the general markets are not. it is now OBVIOUS that earnings are going to have no immediate impact on the markets. In fact....even though earnings still have a few weeks to go....there is little to no mention of them.

    so....at this point....we simply move on and look forward to the next earnings in a couple of months. The day to day markets......at the moment......WHATEVER.
     
  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I just "looked" for the first time today.....as usual lately.....a surprise.....UP nicely with EVERY position except Tesla being positive. The short term action is so CRAZY lately......no way to anticipate........how, why, where, when, or if.....the markets are going to do anything.

    Of course....that is why I am NOT a market timer. What we are seeing lately....day to day....is the exact reason that Market Timing does not work.....it is an impossibility.....other than random chance.
     
  8. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    Guess everyone’s on selling mode... I mean heck I guess that’s part of the game right? Just like I’m selling my comic books,people are selling their top earning tech stocks...
    Ok so I have to admit I sold my TWLO position yesterday before the close... I just KNEW it’s gonna get hammered at the earning reports, although the earnings were as strong as I expected them to be..... so I’ve made just a bit over 5% gains... but am I happy about it? Absolutely NOT.... call it market timing or whatever you wanna call it... when you see that everything gets hammered during such a strong tech earning season you’d probably be silly not to sell......
    I’m SURE that Twilio will rebound, heck if I was market timing I’d probably buy right now! But I’ve had enough with this tech selloff silliness.... I’m happy with my Amazon, PayPal, Tesla, eBay... and they’re gonna stay with me forever... but my new tech acquisition had to go sorry
     
  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Zukodany.....I NEVER second guess a decision to sell. Not being able to sell just leads to owning a bunch of stocks that are losers. My view is you sell....and....move on. Put the money into something else and ii is just.......a LATERAL MOVE......stock market money remains stock market money.....but invested in something BETTER or at least with more potential going forward.

    Like you did...you make your decision......and move on.
     
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  10. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Today ended up being a really nice green day. PLUS...I beat the SP500 by .44%. I just got in so I have no idea what went on during the middle of the day today. AND....I dont care.....I will just take the nice gain and move forward.

    Onward And Upward.......to infinity and beyond.
     
  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    A SUMMARY of the day. As usual we see that it is the Hedge funds and the big investors that have been leading the charge for the high grass. Turns out the so called professionals are the USUAL cause to the recent market drop with their erratic herd behavior.

    Stock market news live updates: Dow sets fresh record high, Nasdaq ends four-day losing streak

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-may-6-2021-221418961.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Stocks ended higher on Thursday, with the Nasdaq ending a four-day losing streak as technology stocks recovered some losses spurred by concerns over higher inflation and rates.

    The Dow extended gains, reaching a fresh intraday and closing high by the end of the session. The S&P 500 traded 0.8% higher, led by gains in the financials and consumer staples sectors.

    So far in May, investors renewed a rotation away from technology and growth stocks, with valuations viewed as stretched especially as prospects for rising rates increase. And given the strong stock market rally over the past year, some have worried that easy positive catalysts for equities may be running out, with the economic recovery already well under way and a strong earnings season almost in the rearview mirror. Recent Bank of America data showed that institutional clients sold equities for a third week in a row last week, and hedge fund clients posted their largest outflows in over a month as equity sentiment nears euphoria.

    Many market participants are now considering whether the strength of the economic rebound and surge in consumer and business demand will lead to persistently high levels of inflation, prompting officials to ease up on the ultra-accommodative policies that had supported both the economy and asset prices. Private payrolls accelerated to rise by 742,000 in April, ADP reported Thursday, and Friday's jobs report from the Labor Department is expected to show a staggering 1 million non-farm payrolls returned last month.

    "The question that matters the most is if asset managers will make a significant change in allocations to express an increased probability of a more persistent inflation," Marko Kolanovic, JPMorgan global markets strategist, wrote in a note. "We think that this shift in allocation will happen (regardless of how temporary inflation is), and new data points related to inflation will on margin cause investors to shorten duration, move from low volatility to value, and increase allocations to direct inflation hedges such as commodities."

    "We expect this trend to persist during the reopening of global economies in the second half of this year," he added. "Given the still high unemployment, and a decade of inflation undershoot, central banks will likely tolerate higher inflation and see it as temporary. Portfolio managers likely will not take chances and will reposition portfolios."

    MY COMMENT

    It is TYPICAL to see the big institutional investors and hedge funds running for the hills. My view....they are DEAD WRONG. The economic recovery and the impact of the recovery are in the VERY early stages......and will continue to GROW. As to inflation........we will remain at or within the HISTORIC LOW RANGE of USA inflation.......their moves with their money will be nothing more than a self fulfilling prophesy.....as usual. They operate in one BIG...echo chamber.

    Any inflation that we get up to 3.5% to 4% will.......in the end be...... simply a result of a booming economy.....that will last for perhaps a year or two. In the end if we do not see significant wage increases....any inflation will simply peter-out. With tens of thousands of jobs being DITCHED by corporations.....and being outsourced.....and going to low wage white collar immigrants.....and low wage blue collar immigrants.....etc, etc, etc. We are UNLIKELY to see much wage inflation. In addition....... the tax increases and other government actions.......WILL.......impact small and large business and the private business world and will SUCK money out of the private economy. Business will CHOOSE to increase productivity....by keeping USA employment to a minimum......and using outsourcing, foreign labor and relocation of plants and manufacturing to foreign third world countries. So it is going to be a BATTLE between the forces of inflation and the forces of deflation. We have seen how that battle has worked out for the past 10 years around the EU and the rest of the world......with stagnation and continued deflation.
     
  12. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    i can't determine if this chart is on the verge of being a triple bottom or if it is in the right side up of cup and handle. either way, keep a close eye on it, @WXYZ . i know you don't believe in trading and/or timing, but i've seen you do both right here on this forum. so, put tesla on your watch list.

    [​IMG]
     
  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Emmett....I could not tell you in the slightest what that chart shows.....since to me it shows NOTHING.....other than the price history of the stock over a year. I could not tell you a triple bottom from a triple dipper.....or a cup and handle from a cup and saucer. I can honestly say that in my 45+ years of investing I have NEVER studied charts or anything to do with reading charts.

    I agree with Buffett:

    "I realized that technical analysis didn't work when I turned the chart upside down and didn't get a different answer."

    BUT.....you are psychic.....I was thinking earlier today about my remaining shares of Tesla. I STILL have about a 150% gain on them and I was thinking that perhaps I should sell and take that gain. But in the end.....for now....I decided that I will just continue with them......since the position is not that big in the scheme of things. When or if I change my mind I will post it here as usual.

    If I did sell Tesla....... the funds would ALL go into the SP500 Index fund. I am feeling like spreading more of my money around lately among those 500 stocks. Of course........If I did that I would still own a chunk of Tesla in the SP500.
     
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  14. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    NO particular reason....but....I was also thinking that we turned a corner today.....and....perhaps tomorrow will be a good UP day. In spite of the weakness and erratic market the past couple of weeks......the markets and good solid companies REFUSED to spin out of control and fought back......even on the down days. Today was a STRONG finish.

    Although nothing seems any different in terms of the NEGATIVE factors......potential inflation, the ten year yield, the tax increases, etc, etc, etc.....or.....the MANY positive factors.

    It will be interesting to see if stocks and funds can fight back to a good strong, positive, day to end the week tomorrow.
     
  15. oldmanram

    oldmanram Well-Known Member

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    Sold most of Intel this morning before it tanked again. Took the proceeds and:
    (edit) I forgot to post this @ 9am) so Intel ended up a little
    Purchased DIA the SPDR Dow fund , already up on that one(up almost a point at the close)
    Doubled my position in AMZN (UP 1.1%)

    May try those 3x leveraged etf's again, just for the fun of it , it's like playing dice guess right you win , guess wrong you lose.
    OR look at the Robotics- Artificial Intelligence field, for a long term play,

    At the close I did OK , UP .57% ............Hey green is green
    Took back about a day of a bad week

    Tomorrow I'm thinking of getting rid of my worst performing stock over the last 12 month's
    DLR
     
    #5415 oldmanram, May 6, 2021
    Last edited: May 6, 2021
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  16. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I had an order in yesterday and SOLD ALL shares of SNOW (100 shares) at $216. A loss of $1400. Tired of holding that 100 shares and wanted to get that money into something with better promise...... NOW. There will be plenty of time to re-buy later if justified. The proceeds went into my NVIDIA.
     
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  17. oldmanram

    oldmanram Well-Known Member

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    Nvidia is good place to hold money. Good Call
    Turning a prospective winner , that under-performs, into a winner :thumbsup:
    I bot DLR at it's absolute high, (July 29th and 30th), I got a little caught up in the summer bull market.
    I think I had a little euphoria (and a lotta full of myself) after picking up 4 winners during the end of march crash,
    Was up big on them, and like a lot of things in my life, I OVERINDULGED

    But hey, I need a short term loss to cancel out some of the short term GAINS I've had this year
    Use the proceeds to strengthen position in one of my S&P funds
    I'll sleep on it , something will come to me.......
     
  18. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    This is gonna be a big shake up year with tons of volatility... I can’t imagine us getting into a bear market just because the market is overall good so far... but there’s a HUGE shakeup with the toys we played with in 2020- the tech sweethearts, the “peloton’s” of yesterday... all of those stocks that the media encouraged us to buy are now being dropped like flies... I don’t see them EVER coming back and ALOT of us invested in them.
    A little side note - I don’t think Tesla is one of those stocks- mainly because Elon Musk has received that “dump” treatment from Wall Street before it was ok to do it- that is some 2-3 years ago- and he proved to everyone that he is more than just a cute trending name in the grand scheme of things - he’s a powerhouse in the tech, automobile & AI world... I will never dump my original shares and WILL add more when I feel that the price had dropped low enough/stayed stagnant for awhile.
    Selling the trending stock of yesterday and replacing them with an S&P index is probably the smartest thing to do this year- go as CONSERVATIVE as possible - until the Wall Street shakeup ends.
    it’s obvious what’s happening here- the “little guys”, the Reddit, WSB etc have come in and meddled with the “pros” and took a big chunk of their money, so the Wall Street pros are now shaking up the market as much as they can to spit out that new wave of traders. Add to that the crypto mania looming over like a huge dark cloud and you have a big mess of a storm in the making.
    I only say this because as I mentioned many times before - this doesn’t make any sense. Our economy is very strong and the market shouldn’t point in the opposite direction or show ANY sign of continuous volatility.
     
  19. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    i agree with dumping snow, @WXYZ. the head and shoulders chart pattern says it all.

    ----

    What Is a Head And Shoulders Pattern?
    A head and shoulders pattern is a chart formation that appears as a baseline with three peaks, the outside two are close in height and the middle is highest. In technical analysis, a head and shoulders pattern describes a specific chart formation that predicts a bullish-to-bearish trend reversal.

    The head and shoulders pattern is believed to be one of the most reliable trend reversal patterns. It is one of several top patterns that signal, with varying degrees of accuracy, that an upward trend is nearing its end.

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    [​IMG]
     
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  20. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    :rofl::rofl:
    even the clown in your handle was giggling from that comment Emmett
     
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