Sorry Emmett I dont use or subscribe to ANY of that chart reading "stuff". But....that is just me.....if it helps you or anyone else to invest......what I believe is irrelevant.
but even if you don't use charts the pattern above does reflect reality: i.e. you realized snow petered out and sold.
the post was actually serious with good intentions, although "dumping snow" did play as a funny double entendre.
Charts " for those that can comprehend them" are a great tool for the more successful ones. Another fact, ALL of the DPOs "direct listing" just took a Metamucil sized dump the last few days. COIN,PLTR,CPNG,SNOW,etc,etc. Profits are being taken across the board. Another case of sector rotation that helps the market timers know how to allocate funds by knowing how to swim with the sharks. Crypto is still the new daddy though, a few TRILLION that is out of the markets. Until these companies fall to realistic prices, most will stay where the money is at.
So the whole week the market is down mainly s&p & nasdaq.... and now in comes one of the shittiest job reports in American modern history on Friday and the market jumps up... Can we talk to the man behind the curtain and ask him to at least try and correlate his scaling with reality?
So.....the GIANT ELEPHANT in the room today......and....going forward.....the JOBS REPORT. A TOTAL miss....but in line with what I have been posting on here for months. Nothing that government is doing or focusing on is going to create or encourage jobs.....OR....create a successful economy. We are going to be EXTREMELY lucky to get anywhere near pre-pandemic employment levels. In fact EVERYTHING that government is focused on either has NOTHING to do with jobs and a successful economy......or.....is simply a big negative for the economy. My view.....we are going to see the same type of economy that we had from 2008 to 2016.....OR WORSE.....a stagnant economy. The unemployment rate will be LUCKY to get below 5-6%. It reminds me of the PREVIOUS stimulus/infrastructure "stuff"..........to create "shovel ready jobs". Well that program when it was all said and done did not create a SINGLE job. SUCKING money out of the private economy and government spending is NOT the path to economic success. In my lifetime I have NEVER seen a time when government spending created a good economy. So much for inflation. What we are doing now reminds me of NAFTA on steroids......not the same....but similar government incompetence and focus on the irrelevant......we all know how that worked out. It turned out as predicted by ROSS.....that big sucking sound was the jobs leaving the country. The OBVIOUS near term future is one of jobs leaving the country, businesses leaving the country, tax and regulatory policy PUNISHING business, etc, etc, etc. BUT......the good news....the general economy is NOT the stock markets. The two are NOT connected. SO.....I am NOT saying we will necessarily have a bad market going forward. April jobs report: Payrolls rose by 266,000, sharply missing estimates, as unemployment rate increased to 6.1% https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apri...-labor-department-unemployment-181552009.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The U.S. economy brought back far fewer jobs than estimated in April and the unemployment rate unexpectedly increased, underscoring the choppiness in the labor market's recovery even as social distancing requirements were eased further in the spring. The Labor Department released the April jobs report Friday morning at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here were the main results from the report, compared to consensus data compiled by Bloomberg: Non-farm payrolls, April: +266,000 vs. +1.000 million expected and a revised +770,000 in March Unemployment rate, April: 6.1%vs. 5.8% expected and 6.0% in March Average hourly earnings, month-over-month, April: 0.7%vs. 0.0% expected and -0.1% in March Average hourly earnings, year-over-year, April: 0.3%vs.-0.4% expected and 4.2% in March Non-farm payrolls rose for a fourth straight month but at a markedly slower-than-expected clip, despite easing social distancing standards across the country that had been expected to support the recovery. Friday's report came as a sharp disappointment for many economists, who had been expecting a blowout payrolls number with job gains north of 1 million, as more stay-in-place restrictions were eased and mobility picked up. March's non-farm payroll gain was also revised sharply lower, showing a rise of 770,000 versus the 916,000 previously reported. February's payrolls were revised up by 68,000 to 536,000. Altogether, the U.S. economy remained 8.2 million payrolls short of pre-pandemic levels from February 2020. A handful of industries in the service sector generated outsized drags on the headline payrolls figure. Temporary help services lost 111,400 payrolls in April, with jobs in this industry dropping for a back-to-back month. Transportation and warehousing jobs fell by more than 74,000, and retail trade jobs declined by 15,300. In the goods-producing sector, manufacturing jobs unexpectedly dropped by 18,000 whereas a rise of 54,000 had been expected, marking the first net decline in these payrolls since January. Other industries fared better. Leisure and hospitality jobs rose by 331,000, adding to a gain of 206,000 payrolls in March and 413,000 in February. This industry group, however, remains 3 million payrolls short of its pre-pandemic levels, and has been the hardest hit due to social distancing restrictions. April's rise in the unemployment rate also came alongside a larger than expected increase in the labor force participation rate, suggesting more individuals were back looking for work. The labor force participation rate increased to 61.7% from 61.5%, but still remains well below the 63.3% posted in February 2020. And at 6.1%, the unemployment rate has increased its distance to recover before returning to its pre-pandemic, 50-year-low of 3.5%. And recently, companies and business surveys have suggested that the main economic concern now is around making sure businesses have enough workers to keep up with rising demand. Friday's jobs report "could indicate that labor shortages are becoming a significant drag," Michael Pearce, senior U.S. economist for Capital Economics, wrote in a note Friday. "Overall, it is difficult to judge how much weight to put on this report at a time when most of the other evidence suggests economic activity is rebounding quickly, but it is a clear reminder that the recovery in the labour market is lagging the rebound in consumption," he added. "For the Fed, we suspect that means it will be a many months before it judges the economy has made 'substantial further progress' towards its 'broad based and inclusive' full employment goal. That means any talk of tapering, let alone rate hikes, is still some way off." Still, many Americans remain on the sidelines of the labor market, and will likely continue to do so until concerns around the pandemic recede further. But with more than 40% of the population already injected with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, additional progress is unlikely to come quite as quickly, and many epidemiologists are now predicting the U.S. will never entirely reach "herd immunity." The labor market's ability to rebound further as businesses focus on risk mitigation rather than total elimination will be a key focus going forward. "A big segment of the workers are still concerned about the pandemic. We estimate roughly 1.6 million workers want a job but didn't look for a job recently because they were still concerned about contracting the virus, or other factors around the pandemic," Joe Song, Bank of America U.S. economist, told Yahoo Finance on Wednesday. "On top of that, you had some workers citing that childcare was still a big factor for their decision not to participate in the labor market." " MY COMMENT Much of the reasoning in this little article from QUOTED SOURCES shows the stupidity of what is reflected in the data. I dont buy many of the EXCUSES from the so called experts in this article. REALITY...business is going to operate as LEAN as possible for a long time. The more programs government pushes to pay people for doing nothing.....on top of higher taxes and other significant HURDLES for big and small business....leads to NOTHING positive for the economy. BUT......it is simply a waste of time to even discuss or post any of this stuff......so I will move on. After all it is a NEW ERA.....and the OLD RULES dont apply. The world moves on....and we move with it. The WORSE the general economy....up to a certain tipping point....the better the stock markets will be going forward.
Emmett....Emmett. All that chart shows is the price of a stock over a certain time period. HIND SIGHT analysis of a chart is worthless. I am SMILING as I post this. I will say I sold SNOW because I wanted to put that money in something with more of an IMMEDIATE POTENTIAL for gains. So I moved that money to NVIDIA. That SNOW position was a small 100 share speculative purchase.....and....it simply got to the point where I did not care to have that money not producing while waiting to see if the company progresses over the years. I would call it......investor impatience....on my part. With the way the markets have been ignoring even BIG EARNINGS from the GIANTS of the business world.....also played a role in my decision to leave this new up and coming company. ACTUALLY....I think SNOW has been showing nice earnings for a young company.
To continue with the above...but.....not focused at Emmett. I am still on the fence with Tesla. So I am currently in.......selling mode for a few positions.....SNOW and possibly TSLA. Tesla.....if I sell....would be to capture the nice gain that I have over the last 11 months since I bought the stock. If sold those funds will go into the SP500 Index Fund.
NO....LOL.....it is not market timing. ACTUALLY....since I am always open and honest on here.....I simply put that money into NVIDIA because the amount of money that I have in that holding is well below the money that I have in my other holdings. So, since the amount of money involved was not big...I just threw it in NVDA without looking at the current price or anything else.
Hey Emmett, quick observation- I’m not jumping in to defend W or call out definitions here but EVERYONE investing in the stock market can be called a “market timer” if they sell or buy at a particular time where others consider high or low for that particular stock- charts or no charts, you go by what you feel PLUS what the market does to your INVESTMENT moneys. What I would consider a market timer is one that does it religiously and frequently. But overall- I would like to think that I ALWAYS try to time the market, it just so happens to be that I almost always FAIL at doing that and actually benefit from profiting when I least expect my positions to perform well. That much I can tell you is FACTUAL. My biggest performer to date was Tesla- and I bought it at a time when it kept on falling... even MONTHS after I bought it originally- so... at the time when I bought it I wasn’t thinking “oh, I’m buying a dip”, I just bought it because I believed in the company. My recent purchase and sell, TWLO, was based on market timing - and FAILED. I bought it a couple of months ago when I STRONGLY believed that it was a dip... I ended up being right and it made me almost 20% profit in just 2 short weeks. But then this strong tech earning report resulting in EPIC drops trended and I decided to drop it immediately. So someone can call it market timing- I just call it going with your gut feelings on positions that you don’t really care much for.
The reaction of the markets today.....is the perfect example of how the markets work. A HUGE miss and a big hit for the economy.....is IRRELEVANT to where the markets are. YES....the numbers today are actually good news regarding inflation and interest rates and the FED. BUT....this day to day "stuff" and economic data is SIMPLY NOT RELEVANT to stocks and funds. SO....we have a big hit on the jobs number today.....and the markets are ALL UP. People are scratching their heads...how can that be? What I see as the ONLY relevant information for an investor.....business fundamentals of the particular business that you happen to own. As an investor...the companies that I own have NO ability to impact or change....FED policy, monetary policy, economic considerations, economic data, government actions, etc, etc. The ONLY thing that the companies that I own have any control over is their own operations......in the environment they are handed. If management is successful in running the business......in whatever the economic conditions are.....the fundamentals will reflect that. Good fundamental business results......EQUALS.....long term investor success. UNFORTUNATELY....I see a lot of trading and investing going on today based on everything but fundamentals. People are buying and selling based on economic data, daily financial articles and other media content, message board posts, sun spot activity, superstition and myth, charts and other Technical fantasy, etc, etc. Good for them....it is their money. But NOT my cup of tea even if it does have a handle.
This little article is a pretty good summary of the day to day "stuff" that is affecting he markets today. Stock market news live updates: Stocks rise, S&P 500 hits record high as tech shares jump after jobs report miss https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-may-7-2021-221812613.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stocks rose Friday as investors digested a disappointing April jobs report, which showed the U.S. economy added back far fewer jobs than expected last month despite easing stay-in-place restrictions. The S&P 500 reached a record intraday high. The Nasdaq advanced, after the disappointing economic data appeared to make a case for monetary policy to stay on hold and interest rates to stay low, supporting tech and growth stocks. Treasury yields sank, with the 10-year yield tumbling to below 1.55%. The Dow reversed earlier losses to trade higher. The Labor Department's April jobs report showed that U.S. employers brought back just 266,000 jobs in April, whereas a gain of at least 1 million had been expected. Payroll gains for March were also revised lower. The unemployment rate unexpectedly increased to 6.1%, widening further from its pre-pandemic level of 3.5%. The disappointing data served to bolster some economists' and central bankers' claims that risks to the downside still persist for the U.S. economic recovery, even as more social distancing standards get lifted. Altogether, the U.S. economy remained 8.2 million payrolls short of pre-pandemic levels, and both the unemployment rate and labor force participation are still off from their February 2020 levels. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has suggested he would want to see a "string" of strong payroll gains totaling more than 1 million before the central bank considers adjusting its ultra-accommodative monetary policy posturing. With the April jobs report such a stark disappointment, it appeared the economy still did remain far from the central bank's targets of reaching maximum employment, and would keep the Federal Reserve on hold with its current policies. “The smaller rise in payrolls should at least assuage some concerns around the Fed policy outlook," Seema Shah, Chief Strategist at Principal Global Investors, wrote in an email Friday morning. "As we have heard several times in recent days, even a very strong jobs number wouldn’t have caused the committee to formally discuss changing the pace of bond purchases, so today’s number certainly won’t be giving the Fed cause for concern. They will be in no rush to bring forward tapering plans." Heading into the report, investors had been contemplating improvements in other economic data with both optimism about the post-pandemic rebound and trepidation over the implications for monetary policy, with persistently strong data likely to bolster the case for the Fed to ease up on policies that had supported the recovery as well as asset prices. Prospects of higher interest rates have especially weighed on growth and technology stocks, which would see valuations come under pressure once rates lift from their current near-zero levels. 9:48 a.m. ET: Disappointing jobs report doesn't 'destroy that narrative' of cyclical rotation, but may cause near-term bounce-back in tech: Portfolio manager The weak April jobs report catalyzed a rebound in technology names Friday morning, with the disappointing data poised to apt to keep the Fed on hold with low rates and accommodative monetary policy for longer. However, as just one data point amid what has otherwise been a strong batch of recent economic data, the jobs report will not ultimately knock cyclical and value stocks from their current upward trajectory, according to at least one portfolio manager. “On a day like today, you’re seeing that pullback in the 10-year rate, you’re seeing that pullback in the U.S. dollar, and I think that’s translating into some of those longer-duration assets or investments. Technology fits squarely into that space,” Craig Fehr, Edward Jones portfolio manager, told Yahoo Finance on Friday. “So we’re seeing tech under a little bit of a rebound." "We’ve seen this rotation from growth, which has outperformed for years now, into value under the premise that rates were moving higher, the cyclical rebound is under way," he added. "I don’t this jobs report does anything to destroy that narrative. But I do think we’re going to see this short-term reaction where it’s a bounce-back between value and growth, defense and offense, and I think on a day like today you’re seeing more of that defense. So it’s benefiting stay-at-home names, it’s benefiting longer-duration growthier names like tech. And I suspect we will continue to see that bounce back and forth as we continue to progress.” 8:57 a.m. ET: U.S. economy adds back far fewer jobs than expected and unemployment rate unexpectedly climbs U.S. employers brought back just 266,000 jobs in April, sharply missing consensus economists' expectations for a rise of 1 million, according to Bloomberg data. The unemployment rate rose to 6.1% from 6.0% in March, whereas a drop to 5.8% was expected. March's non-farm payroll gain was also revised sharply lower, showing a rise of 770,000 versus the 916,000 previously reported. February's payrolls were revised up by 68,000 to 536,000. A handful of industries in the service sector generated outsized drags on the headline payrolls figure. Temporary help services lost 111,400 payrolls in April, with jobs in this industry dropping for a back-to-back month. Transportation and warehousing jobs fell by more than 74,000, and retail trade jobs declined by 15,300. In the goods-producing sector, manufacturing jobs unexpectedly dropped by 18,000 whereas a rise of 54,000 had been expected, marking the first net decline in these payrolls since January. Meanwhile, leisure and hospitality jobs rose by 331,000, adding to a gain of 206,000 payrolls in March and 413,000 in February. This industry group, however, remains 3 million payrolls short of its pre-pandemic levels, and has been the hardest hit due to social distancing restrictions." MY COMMENT At the moment the DOW and the SP500 are at all time highs. OK.....bring on more negative economic news....the markets love it.....up to a point.
AS USUAL I am once again posting my PORTFOLIO MODEL. My initial criteria to start the process to consider a business are.......BIG CAP, AMERICAN, DIVIDEND PAYING, GREAT MANAGEMENT, ICONIC PRODUCT, WORLD WIDE LEADER IN THEIR FIELD, LONG TERM HORIZON, etc, etc, etc. PORTFOLIO MODEL "Here is my "PORTFOLIO MODEL" for all accounts managed which is the basis for MUCH of my discussion in this thread. I am re-posting this since I often talk in this thread about my portfolio model. My custom in the past on this sort of thread was to re-post my portfolio model every once in a while since I will tend to talk about it once in a while. I "manage" six portfolios for various family including a trust. ALL are set up in this fashion. If I was starting this portfolio today, lets say with $200,000. I would put half the money into the stock side of the portfolio, with an equal amount going into each stock. The other half of the money would go into the fund side of the portfolio, with an equal amount going into each fund. As is my long time custom, I would than let the portfolio run as it wished with NO re-balancing, in other words, I would let the winners run. Over the LONG TERM of investing in this style (at least in my actual portfolios), the stock side seems to reach and settle in at about 55% of the total portfolio and the fund side at about 45% of the total portfolio over time. That is a GOOD THING since it tells me that my stock picks are generally beating the funds over the longer term. AND....since the funds in the account generally meet or beat the SP500, that is a VERY good thing. As mentioned in a post in this thread, I include the funds in the portfolio as a counter-balance to my investing BIAS and stock picking BIAS and to add a top active management fund that often beats the SP500 (Fidelity Contra Fund) and a SP500 Index Fund to get broad exposure to the best 500 companies in AMERICAN business and economy. The funds also give me broad diversification as a counter-balance to my very concentrated 12 stock portfolio. At the same time the funds double and triple up on my individual stock holdings............that I consider the BEST individual businesses in the WORLD. STOCKS: Alphabet Inc Amazon Apple Costco Home Depot Honeywell Nike Microsoft Proctor & Gamble Tesla Nvidia MUTUAL FUNDS: SP500 Index Fund Fidelity Contra Fund CAUTION: This is a moderate aggressive to aggressive portfolio on the stock side with the small concentration of stocks and the mix of stocks that I hold and with the concentration of big name tech stocks. Especially for my age group. (71). So for anyone considering this sort of portfolio, be careful and consider your risk tolerance and where you are in your life and financial needs. I am able to do this sort of portfolio since my stock market account is NOT needed for my retirement income AND I have a fairly HIGH RISK TOLERANCE. In addition I am a fully invested, all the time, LONG TERM investor. (LONG TERM meaning many years, 5, 10, 20, years or more)" MY COMMENT This portfolio is HIGHLY CONCENTRATED on the big cap side of things. OBVIOUSLY between the funds and my twelve stock holdings there is MUCH doubling and tripling up on the stocks. THAT is INTENTIONAL. I strongly subscribe to the view of Buffett and some others that TOO MUCH diversification kills returns. I do NOT believe in the current diversification FAD that most people seem to now follow.......or think they are following. I DO NOT do bonds and think the current level of bonds held by younger investors.....those under age 50.....is extremely foolish.I DO NOT do market timing or Technical Analysis.
I am now going to sign off and go out and stimulate the economy. I need to buy a mothers day card for my wife. I will also be doing my part to stimulate the economy tomorrow. I have a show at a great venue with a good sound system and a good sound-man. Another little road trip,,,,this time about 90 miles each way. The WHOLE AREA will be packed with people inside and outside the venue....shopping, eating, having a good time.......the benefits of living in an open state.
I hate to say it but these dismal jobs reports come to me and probably others as no shocker. Last weekend wifey and I went to one of our favorite spots for dinner, the place was mobbed with diners by the bar but to our surprise there were plenty of seats at the courtyard deck.... when we sat down the owner of the restaurant came to us and said that unfortunately he wouldn’t be able to serve us because he is short staffed and short of us sitting there and waiting for a meal for hours on end he won’t be able to take us in.... this sits perfectly in line with what we’re experiencing with these new job numbers- sure, businesses are opening, the restaurants which lost SO much business during covid need that more than anyone. But now that the restrictions are finally lifted - people don’t wanna go to work. Sad sad sad
HERE is one take on the markets being UP today. Why the Dow is hitting records despite a weak jobs report https://www.marketwatch.com/story/w...ly-weak-jobs-report-11620403366?siteid=yhoof2 (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "It may take more than a much-weaker-than-expected April jobs report to kill the U.S. stock market rally, analysts said, though the popular reflation trade — bets that stocks more sensitive to the economic cycle will outperform their peers — saw a modest setback on Friday. “The bottom line is that it was a disappointing jobs report,” said Jeff Schulze, investment strategist at ClearBridge Investments, in a phone interview. But Schulze still expects a booming economic reopening to favor cyclical and value stocks over coming months, with jobs growth still likely to accelerate in the months ahead. The U.S. economy created just 266,000 jobs in April, the Labor Department reported, far short of the consensus forecast for a rise of 1 million. The unemployment rate also rose to 6.1% Major U.S. stock indexes, after a mixed start, were higher in morning trade, with the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite COMP, 0.81% bucking its recent underperformance to rise 1%. Interest rate-sensitive tech and growth stocks were reinvigorated as Treasurys rallied, pulling down yields, with the rate on the benchmark 10-year note TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.570% dipping below 1.5% briefly. The 10-year yield later edged back into positive territory, up 0.3 basis point at 1.567%. The fall in yields came as the jobs data helped ease worries a red-hot economy would lead the Federal Reserve to begin scaling back its accommodative monetary policy sooner rather than later. The bigger threat to stocks heading into the report may have been a much stronger-than-expected number, which would have amplified worries over how monetary policy makers would react to signs of a rapidly overheating economy. “The biggest concern for equity investors is overheating, and a rising bond yield. This would choke off the rally. Today the market has processed the bad economic news and it is a positive for the equity bull market,” said David Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth, in emailed comments. The fall in yields helped lift gold GC00, 0.93%, which remained up 0.9% near $1,831.40 an ounce on Comex. A drop in bond yields can be a positive for gold by lowering the opportunity cost of holding nonyielding assets. Cyclical and value stocks, which had solidly outperformed their growth-oriented peers over the past week, weren’t exactly getting shellacked. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, 0.42%, bounced back from an early dip to hit a record high and remained up around 140 points, or 0.4%, while the S&P 500 SPX, 0.56% rose 0.6%, on track for a record close. What the News Means for You and Your Money Schulze and others remained confident in the scope for the economy to grow rapidly and for jobs growth to accelerate significantly in the months ahead, supported by trillions of dollars in fiscal stimulus, pent-up demand and an accommodative Fed, though the April data did raise questions about snags in the labor market. Some of those should clear up as the school year comes to an end and supplemental unemployment benefits begin to expire, said Schulze. Meanwhile, despite rising earnings estimates for coming quarters, analysts are likely still underappreciating the scope for earnings growth, particularly for cyclically sensitive companies that are typically able to leverage economic growth in the early stages of an expansion, he said. It’s an environment that also favors small-caps over large caps. “No one is doubting the economic recovery,” Donabedian said. “Today’s job report is a signal that there is nothing to worry about, we have a long way to a full recovery. The economic repair needed is still significant and the expectation is that the Fed will stay accommodative.” Falling yields tied to a more relaxed view of the Fed also contributed to a decline by the U.S. dollar. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY, -0.71%, a measure of the currency against a basket of six major rivals, slumped 0.7% to trade at its lowest since Feb. 26, according to FactSet. A resumption of dollar weakness should have investors considering raising exposure to international equities, Schulze said. As Europe gets a handle on vaccine rollouts, its economy will also begin to spring back to life, putting an end to a run of U.S. outperformance. Japan is likely to revive after Europe, with much of Asia set to follow suit." MY COMMENT A set-back? Not exactly. ACTUALLY a very positive report for the stock markets. We have created the perfect system to DISCOURAGE people from working. Extended unemployment benefits.......benefits higher than the persons previous working wages...... payments each month for each child starting in June or July.......rent moratoriums for renters which will extend for at least a year and a half or more by the time they end.....schools afraid to re-open......etc, etc, etc. AND....there is more in the......BENEFITS.....pipeline coming up. Good social policy....NO COMMENT......BUT.....in terms of economic policy and economic impact.....great for investors short term and perhaps even long term.......not because these policies will create a booming economy....but....because these policies will create a BIG DRAG on the economy......and....delay any interest rate gains, inflation, etc, etc.
