The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Looking good, oldmanram! :thumbsup:

    I'd cut my ear off to own a couple of those. :cool:
     
    Dogtown likes this.
  2. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    If the market crashes any more, I may be able to start flying private. (please notice the obvious hyperbole)


    The lesson of ignoring my gut and objectively looking for value has never paid off so well as it has recently. We onboarded a new company in March of this year, with the market at record highs, because it showed value. That company is doing well.

    We have done extremely well but not because my macro intuition is good. My macro intuition is crap but I am aware of this and ignore events that seem like they will obviously happen.

    There is never a time when I would not buy a company because of macro factors. If it shows value, I buy. Assuming my gut is an idiot is the smartest thing I do. The second smartest thing I do is to assume everyone else is also an idiot. No offence.
     
  3. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    I will not comment on this, as we've discussed in PM's. @StockJock-e said he would take care of it. I make no money from this forum.
     
  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Enough time to pop in for a quick post or two. Here is the latest Consumer Confidence numbers:

    Consumer Confidence Falls in Early May Amid Inflation Fears

    https://www.usnews.com/news/economy...dence-falls-in-early-may-amid-inflation-fears

    MY COMMENT

    So...the latest estimate is currently 82.8, this is a drop of 6.2% from the last reading a month ago which was at 88.3. PERVERSELY......the drop is actually probably a good sign for interest rates and inflation even though SUPPOSEDLY the drop was because of fear of inflation and rising rates.

    The "future expectations" ALSO dropped.

    Various measures of expectation of rising income was extremely weak...another good indicator for inflation to be just fine. In addition the expectations for buying THINGS...like homes, cars, and other durables was more negative than any time since 1980. YES......this is another spike in the heart of the inflation argument.

    I agree with the comment in the article that consumers WILL likely continue to spend......what choice do they have.....due to pent up demand and the re-opening.

    SO......we have the situation of FEAR of inflation and rates causing negative consumer confidence which will help to keep a lid on some of the pressure in the economy. If we can RAMP UP enough FEAR....we will simply end up right back in the same DEFLATIONARY situation we were for the past 10 years.

    My REAL VIEW......the numbers and data are so DISTORTED right now.....there is no way to know anything at all. At least I would consider this good news for the markets with the current OBSESSION on inflation.
     
  5. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    A HUGE day in the markets today.....in the actual gains and numbers....but....more importantly in terms of the power to the up-side and the refusal of stocks to be driven down by constant negativity.

    I was SOLID in the green today with a nice BEAT of the SP500 by .32%

    For the week the numbers are ALSO SOLID......considering the bad start to the week we got on Monday through Wednesday.

    DOW year to date +12.33%
    DOW for the week (-1.14%)

    SP500 year to date +11.12%
    SP500 for the week (-1.39%)

    NASDAQ 100 year to date +3.92%
    NASDAQ 100 for the week (-2.38%)

    NASDAQ year to date +4.20%
    NASDAQ for the week (-2.34%)

    RUSSELL year to date +12.65%
    RUSSELL for the week (-0.33%)

    Some of these numbers seemed odd to me so there may be some settlement after the close. BUT....all in all....with the very poor start.....a good solid STRONG close to the week.
     
  6. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Is anyone here old enough to remember when bad news would push the markets down?
     
  7. oldmanram

    oldmanram Active Member

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    Good one TomB
    Ya know I sometimes wonder " Am I an idiot ?" or are the people "Driving the market idiots ?"


    I did OK today UP 1.68% little over half back from last Friday close
    Wife: UP 1.98%
    According to WXYZ's numbers still doing ok vs the S&P too
    Me: YTD up 14.75%
    S&P500 YTD 11.12%

    But I'm with whoever was talking about the "Nervousness" it still remains .......
    Just a little quieter now
     
    #5647 oldmanram, May 14, 2021
    Last edited: May 14, 2021
  8. Rustic1

    Rustic1 Well-Known Member

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    None of that matters anymore, WBI,DEBT,VIX are now pointless. :hmm:

    DOW 45,000 by years end.
    NASDAQ is fixing to slingshot.

    Still holding my coins, ETH,BTC,LTC,XRP.

    Made my last buy 6 of 6
    STONKS- long this time :lauging:

    PLTR 18.77
    TSLA 597.54
    AAPL 123.46
    VOO 374.23
    VIAC 38.78
    AMZN 3221.89
     
  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    The TIMING is right for this cut-off. With the availability of the vaccine for those that CHOOSE to get it....there is NO reason to pay people to sit at home.

    Nearly 2M Americans will lose extra $300 unemployment benefits this summer

    https://www.foxbusiness.com/money/americans-lose-unemployment-benefits-hiring-slowdown

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what i consider important content)

    "Almost 2 million out-of-work Americans stand to prematurely lose their unemployment benefits after more than a dozen GOP-led states announced plans to drop out of the federal jobless aid programs this summer.

    As of Friday, at least 18 states have said they will cut off the sweetened aid – which provided an extra $300 a week on top of regular state unemployment benefits – before its official expiration date of Sept. 6, 2021. In some states, the boosted benefits will end as soon as June 12.

    The withdrawal will affect close to 2 million people living in those states, which includes Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Iowa, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming, according to new data published by the Century Foundation, a nonprofit think tank.

    They will forego roughly $10.9 billion in assistance, the report showed.

    The new measures come in light of the Labor Department's April payroll report, which revealed the economy added just 266,000 jobs last month – sharply missing the 1 million forecast by Refinitiv economists. GOP lawmakers were quick to blame the extra unemployment aid for the lackluster job growth, although experts have also cited a lack of child care and fears of contracting COVID-19 for the hiring shortage.

    There remain about 8.2 million fewer jobs than there were in February 2020, before the pandemic shut down broad swaths of the nation's economy. According to the Century Foundation, there are just 8 million job openings in the country – compared to 16 million out-of-work Americans.

    The average state unemployment benefit is about $330 per week. With the federal supplement, Americans are receiving about $630 in weekly unemployment benefits. (For comparison's sake, that's about $32,000 annually, or roughly double the nation's minimum wage.)

    ........."

    MY COMMENT

    This extra money is creating a massive distortion of the labor and employment markets. With the vaccine freely available to those that want it.....it is time to get people back to work. Those that CHOOSE to not work can simply draw the "regular" unemployment benefits. It is VERY important to get the country up and running. NOT having all this extra money SLOSHING around in the economy should also help a tiny bit with inflation.
     
  10. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Oldmanram, I don't think people are idiots in a holistic way. People are generally smarter than they are credited for. Particularly on this site, everyone is well above average.

    Maybe that's part of the problem. A lot of people seem to enjoy the complexity of options and multi-part orders.


    I will offer that intellect seems to have no relation to self awareness. Self awareness is as important to successful investing as intellect, in my opinion.

    People make predictions of events outside of their knowledge domain. It's like they predict there will be an earthquake and, if the ground shakes within a few months of the prediction, they will declare themselves master of all things tectonic.

    There are things about which I can speak with knowledge and intellect. Far more so, there topics on which I am an idiot. In order to succeed, I need to stick with what I know.

    That's why I don't own any companies related to genetic research. I believe there is an amazing future in this field but I have no more ability to succeed in this field than my wife has of balancing her check book.
     
  11. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Further, I believe one of the biggest mistakes new investors make is they have a whimsical view of their abilities and they end up having their ass handed to them. The market is ruthless. Not everyone gets a trophy.

    If my softball team were to play the New York Yankees, I wouldn't waste an at-bat, trying to hit a home run. Instead, I would try to get on base, any way possible, and consider myself lucky if I can do that.

    All investors, particularly new investors, would do better to keep it dead simple: Some VOO. If you are retired and need some cash flow, maybe a couple of REITs with a smaller amount of money. ... that's it.

    The odds of someone earning a nice return over the course of 10 years with 100% VOO is 99%.

    The odds of success for someone who just started investing and tries their hand at stop-loss orders, options, margin, penny stocks, companies they don't know anything about... is perhaps 5%? They might not lose their shirt, although they might, but they are most likely to find themselves with less money than they started with 10 years earlier. The odds of the new person keeping up with the VOO holder is far less than 1%.
     
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  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    We have a number of collectors and owners of hard assets on this thread. Oldmanram posted some art the other day that he saw in a gallery. Owners of personal property such as art, comics, baseball cards, expensive watches have a bit of inflation protection along with owning something they love. The best of both worlds.

    Oil Stocks, Baseball Cards, Luxury Watches, and Other Hedges for Higher Inflation

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/investments-rising-inflation-51621028603?siteid=yhoof2

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Inflation is an insidious threat, a force that eats away at investment returns and erodes savings and purchasing power. Whether rising inflation is temporary, as central bankers say, or something more persistent, increasing prices across the U.S. economy warrant investors’ attention

    “A controlled burn can quickly turn into a wildfire,” says Nancy Tengler, chief investment officer at Laffer Tengler Investments, of the possibility of more lasting inflation.

    Barron’s queried a half-dozen investment professionals about inflation hedging—and profiting— strategies. Forget gold, they say, but Treasury inflation-protected securities, or TIPS, are an obvious tool. We highlight four alternatives for investors to consider:

    Certain Stocks
    Natural-resource stocks are good inflation plays, strategists say, given their positive correlation to inflation.
    During the great inflation of the mid-1960s to early 1980s, oil and gas, agriculture, and metals and mining stocks outperformed the broad market and can play a role in mitigating the impact of higher prices this time around, says Peter Mladina, director of portfolio research at Northern Trust Wealth Management.

    Within natural resources, Tengler likes energy companies, including Chevron (ticker: CVX) and EOG Resources (EOG), agriculture plays Caterpillar (CAT) and Deere (DE), and water company Xylem (XYL).

    While many strategists have reservations about cryptocurrencies as an inflation hedge, some say that indirect exposure to Bitcoin, which has a capped supply, makes sense. Tengler recommends Square (SQ), which holds Bitcoin on its balance sheet. For blockchain exposure, she likes the exchange-traded fund Amplify Transformational Data Sharing (BLOK).

    Land/Real Estate

    With inflation, you should have some ability to raise rents,” says Christopher Didier, managing director at Baird Family Wealth Group. He prefers multifamily homes, lake properties, and suburban homes over apartments, primary residences, and urban dwellings. He also recommends that clients consider undeveloped land, or industrial land repurposed for development, as well as farmland.

    Veblen Goods

    Scarcity gets a premium price when inflation kicks in, says Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group. With goods such as luxury watches, demand tends to rise as prices do—the so-called Veblen effect.

    Consider the price of an Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Jumbo 15202ST, which rose 57% in value from November 2018 to November 2020, according to data from Watch Price Trend. Since then, the watch is up 89% to roughly $100,000. In a sign of rising demand for luxury watches, Swiss exports of watches rose 37% from a year earlier, the fastest rate since 2010, Bloomberg data show.

    Collectibles

    Steve Ivy, CEO of Heritage Auctions, the world’s third-largest auction house, says that over the past year, all categories of the roughly $75 billion global collectibles market (not including fine art) are up significantly, as inflation concerns increase and fiscal stimulus means people simply have more money.

    The value of rare coins and comic books has risen by about 20%, while baseball cards are up 15% to 40%, to name a few categories. There are costs to storing collectibles as well as tax and liquidity considerations, so Ivy says investors should plan on holding them for at least 10 years"

    MY COMMENT

    the BEST of both worlds. Getting to own something that you love and enjoy. At the same time you have a hedge for potential inflation.
     
  13. oldmanram

    oldmanram Active Member

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    TomB, I would have to agree with your statement, you caught me in a moment of venting :)
    The context of my statement was in reaction to the market or the "NEWS" thinking the FAANG stocks or the BIG 10 stocks were over valued,and we have a big sell off of those stocks for a couple days, possible profit taking ? , then as soon as good news comes out they are picked up and charge to the top again. I get corrections and sector rotation but this just feels different, kind of like a ride at Disneyland, there is always someone ready to buy these stocks. Or as they say in the car business " An Idiot for every seat".

    Or maybe I'm just listening too much to the "NEWS"
     
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  14. oldmanram

    oldmanram Active Member

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    Or even long term investors that venture into new area's can get their asses handed to them. I was feeling bored a couple of weeks ago, and thought I would venture into the 3X BULL/ BEAR market, I just dipped my toe into it , just 100 shares of SOXL or SOXS depending on the mood of the market. Got beat almost every time. I considered it a cheap lesson. And a little entertainment.
     
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  15. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    Watching Airbnb closely. A company I would’ve bought heavily had it not been for the simple fact that they just lunched an ipo.
    As a rule of thumb I DO NOT buy new ipos.... I AM NOT AND NEVER WILL BE a subscriber of fomo. Let the ipos shape and form a direction, let the smoke clear and have it find a direction with Wall Street - then and only then- if it’s a company I believe in- I will buy.
    Such is the case with AIRBNB. My family friends and I ALL use Airbnb. We have been doing so for years on our travels not just in the US. Their network, service and business model is second to non. It’s not a question of WILL I buy airbnb as an investment. But WHEN.
    I doubt that any of the new or trending ipos of the pandemic will reach covid levels of success anytime soon... but I’m monitoring that ipo closely... if nasdaq keeps tanking I will wait until it reaches a bottom and get in on Airbnb... if it stays the course of volatility I will have to wait till much later. Perhaps next year even... we’ll see
    Another company I am watching closely is AECOM a service provider of construction, design and infrastructure work globally. I think that now with the MASSIVE amount of home acquisition and construction all around the world, a company on that scale level could reach monumental earnings and prosperity.
     
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  16. oldmanram

    oldmanram Active Member

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    ZUKODANY , I just looked at the financials of ABNB, I was looking at the operating expenses, wow they ARE upside down. I guess that some? most? are one time expenses on upgrading the platform but I'm with you, let this thing settle down for a while and maybe turn a profit before stepping in.
     
  17. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    As well as commodities, there is another hedge against inflation..... Owning companies.
     
  18. oldmanram

    oldmanram Active Member

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  19. Dogtown

    Dogtown New Member

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    Me too, especially the two darker ones, kinda reminiscent of "The Scream"...
     
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  20. Rustic1

    Rustic1 Well-Known Member

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    Another interesting week ahead, retail earnings in focus. Some companies are begging for workers and maybe the inflation fear is over.

    Screenshot_20210516-064907_Gmail.jpg Screenshot_20210516-064828_Gmail.jpg
     

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