The Long Term Investor

Bigmaix.....well I dont want to recommend specific stocks to someone that I dont know their entire situation. BUT....I will say that in my opinion the IRA and other retirement vehicles are MADE FOR holding stocks and funds versus other types of investments.

To me.....10 years....is borderline long term when it comes to retirement money. With ONLY ten years......if it was me......I would probably consider doing a more broad index like the SP500. Since ALL of those stocks are BIG holdings in the SP500 you would own a substantial percentage of those companies in the index.....PLUS....you would have the diversification and additional safety of owning the largest 500 companies in the American economy. The best of both worlds.

 

HERE are a few more interesting or very relevant items today. First for collectors of.....anything....the hot collecting MANIA continues:

Babe Ruth baseball card could hit it out of the park in online auction
The Bambino's 1933 card could break the $5.2 million world record price

https://www.foxbusiness.com/money/b...ould-hit-it-out-of-the-park-in-online-auction

For stock investors.....the earnings reports continue to come in very STRONG.

Walmart tops Q1 earnings estimates, raises outlook as company sees 'pent-up demand throughout 2021'

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/walm...sults-pandemic-stimulus-retail-200710610.html

HERE is another one that will be out soon.

Target (TGT) to Report Q1 Earnings: What Awaits the Stock?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/target-tgt-report-q1-earnings-131501878.html

 

At least so far.....EVERYONE...always underestimates Elon Musk.

 

I ran the board today.....every position red....thanks to the afternoon SWOON. And to top it off.....I got beat by the SP500 by .15%. A perfect day.

 

I like this little summary article....it tells the story of stocks and the markets ABSOLUTELY IGNORING what is going on with business and companies.....in the REAL WORLD.

Stock market news live updates: Stocks give up gains, pacing toward back-to-back sessions of declines

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-may-18-2021-221611355.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Stocks dipped on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq erasing earlier gains to join the S&P 500 and Dow in the red.

The S&P 500 drifted lower and headed for a second straight day of declines. The Nasdaq also sank, and the Dow shed more than 100 points, or 0.3%. Walmart (WMT) shares gained more than 2.5% after the company posted first-quarter earnings that handily exceeded estimates and raising full-year guidance. However, Home Depot (HD) and Macy's (M) shares declined even after both companies topped Wall Street's first-quarter earnings estimates.

Technology stocks have fluctuated between steep gains and losses over the past several weeks, with concerns over inflation and higher rates threatening to weigh on valuations of high-growth stocks. The information technology sector has increased by just 3.4% for the year-to-date through Monday's close, far underperforming the broader index's 10.8% gain over that time period and coming in as the worst performer of the index's 11 sectors. Last year, the information technology sector was the biggest outperformer.

"Markets have basically made inflation the battleground issue for determining whether or not it's really this rotation trade that'll win out the rest of this year, or whether it's the tech and growth stocks that won out last year," James Liu, Clearnomics founder and CEO, told Yahoo Finance. "You've seen this bounce back and forth throughout the course of this year."

"Right now what you're seeing with inflation are those base effects. Everyone is calling those transitory. You're seeing supply and demand issues in certain sectors," he added. "But what we're really not seeing is what we would usually call monetary inflation, which is what you saw in the 1970s and 1980s, and that's really where big inflation protection in your portfolio really comes into play. So for us, right now we think it pays for investors to stay invested and to basically look out for the second half of this rotation trade for this rest of this year."

Other strategists said technology shares may get some respite in the near-term after a difficult start to 2021.

"We actually think tech is going to recover a little bit now that we're past that strong inflation data and past the early part of the month where you've got a lot of economic data in the U.S.," Stuart Kaiser, UBS head of equity derivatives research, told Yahoo Finance. Last week, the government reported that headline consumer prices surged by a faster than expected 4.2% last month. A separate print on producer prices also came in higher than expected, with core producer prices rising 4.1% last month versus the 3.8% increase expected.

"Sequencing-wise, tech was under pressure, it stabilized a bit during earnings and then it came under renewed pressure once that inflation data came out," he added. "What we're thinking [and] hoping is that now that that inflation data's been digested a bit last week, that will give tech a little bit of room to recover over the next four to six weeks."

12:42 p.m. ET: Growth stocks more at risk in the event of a Fed shift on policy: Strategist
A lasting jump in inflation could prompt a shift in Federal Reserve monetary policy, which is poised to more deeply impact growth and "longer-duration" equities that would be more sensitive to changes in interest rate, many strategists have noted.

"What we ultimately care about is, what is the ultimate impact to equity markets. We see two main risks," BNP Paribas Vice President Maxwell Grinacoff told Yahoo Finance. "The first is whether higher inflation will ultimately die at the Fed's hand in terms of pushing up the timeline for tapering asset purchases or hiking rates. And there's risk of a quote unquote taper tantrum 2.0 scenario as we've been calling it."

"There is a risk for a broader correction in this scenario. We do think it will be ultimately more shallow and short-lived in nature," he added. "We also see growth-oriented equities more at risk in this scenario."

11:40 a.m. ET: Walmart's blowout Q1 earnings helped by shift to purchases of more profitable goods, cost-cutting strategies: Strategist
Walmart's stronger than expected first-quarter profits results got a boost as consumers began turning toward higher-margin general merchandise items, with spending broadening out beyond just groceries and home essentials. Plus, Walmart's strategic initiatives like its advertising business have begun to grow strongly, freeing up more capital to be invested back in the broader company, according to at least one strategist.

"I think really, though, the story of the quarter is the gross margin gain, up about 100 basis points, really stronger than we've seen it in decades,” DA Davidson Sr. Research Analyst Michael Baker told Yahoo Finance. “And I think that’s a combination of the mix more toward general merchandise, which has been a very positive trend, but also some of the things that they’re doing with their alternative e-commerce businesses, things like advertising, or their third-party platform, which is just starting to take off. And that gives them the ability to invest back in price and other areas.”

10:27 a.m. ET: Walmart, Macy's, Home Depot post stronger-than-expected Q1 earnings as stimulus checks, heightened consumer confidence boost spending
A wave of stronger-than-expected retail earnings results came out Tuesday morning, with each easily topping Wall Street's expectations. A faster than-expected vaccination program in the U.S., multiple rounds of additional stimulus, and ongoing strength in digital sales helped boost results across major retailers.

• Walmart (WMT) beat both top and bottom line estimates and boosted guidance for the full year. For the first quarter, adjusted earnings came in at $1.69 per share on revenue of $138.3 billion. Wall Street was looking for adjusted earnings of $1.18 per share on revenue of $131.97 billion. Total U.S. comparable sales excluding gas increased 6.2%. That was more than three times the estimated growth rate, though it did slow from the 10.3% increase in the same quarter last year at the height of pantry-stocking trends during the pandemic. Walmart's U.S. e-commerce sales increased 37%. CEO Doug McMillon said in a statement he anticipates "continued pent-up demand throughout 2021" when it comes to consumer spending, and the company now sees annual earnings per share growth in the high single digits, after seeing a slight decline previously.
  
  
• Home Depot (HD) also posted stronger than expected first quarter results, underscoring that demand for supplies for home improvement projects carried over from last year into the beginning of this year. Comparable sales were up 31%, or much stronger than the 20% growth rate expected, and earnings per share of $3.86 were greater than the $3.06 expected. While Home Depot did not offer guidance, it did allude to a strong start for the current quarter: Chief Financial Officer Richard McPhail said during the company's earnings call that U.S. comps were above 30% on a two-year-stack in the first two weeks of May, and that "homeowners' balance sheets are healthy."
  
  
• Macy's (M) also posted stronger-than-expected first-quarter results and guidance, and saw digital sales accelerate to a 34% growth rate from a 21% increase in the fourth quarter. Like Walmart, Macy’s also highlighted the impact from stimulus as well as vaccinations in improving consumer confidence. Chief Financial Officer Adrian Mitchell said during this morning’s earnings call, “The solid results and our improved outlook reflect the benefits from the rapidly improved macroeconomic conditions driven by the government stimulus program as well as heightened consumer confidence resulting from the rollout of the COVID-19 vaccinations.”"
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• MY COMMENT

I ACTUALLY.....do not buy any of the speculation in this article. First inflation.......it is way too early to make any judgement that we are going to see inflation. AND as the article points out there is NO evidence of the type of inflation that would concern....."ME":

"But what we're really not seeing is what we would usually call monetary inflation, which is what you saw in the 1970s and 1980s, and that's really where big inflation protection in your portfolio really comes into play."

My view is that MOST....the vast majority....of this inflation FEAR MONGERING is being put out there and driven by traders and speculators and the BIG BOYS in order to drive their trading strategy. Of course...the media loves it since it is the perfect click bait.

As to the ROTATION......no I dont buy this story line either. I dont see the average retail investor rotating into anything. I think most will simply sit tight.......and....that is the right move for the medium to long term. AGAIN.....the short term professionals.....they will jump all over the place as usual.

The middle part of this little article from earlier in the day.....speculating once again....that the FED "might" move on their current policy....is simply....opinion based speculation. We have heard this same line for months now...week after week after week.

The bottom portion of the article.......dealing with earnings summarizes the GREAT earnings reports today. Of course.....in a market where everything is based on speculation and hot air.....earnings do not count.

It would be nice to see the markets ACTUALLY move based on REALITY and FACT. BUT....this is where we are now in the...... SOCIAL MEDIA BASED........ market. As we are seeing happen all across society....FACT does not matter anymore......at least at the moment.

SO.....I will continue to be fully invested for the long term as usual.

 

The VAST majority of articles I am seeing today are all about bitcoin, SafeMoon, and CRYPTO.

It appears that we have reached a point where the majority of......... "?investors?"........have no concept of rationality. We have reached the point where investing has been absorbed into social media.....and the various delusions that go along with social media. FEELINGS based investing........yea.

We have also reached the point in the investing world where the....financial media....has given up any attempt at knowing anything about investing.......in favor of sensationalism and herd behavior.......trying to get easy clicks. I suspect that this STYLE of financial media is....here to stay.

The ONLY way to INSULATE yourself from these trends is to simply totally ignore anything to do with the short term......and.....assume anything being talked about.......as a short term topic.........is TOTALLY BASED on IGNORANCE.

 

At least TESLA was up a bit today.

 

SO.....we move on to tomorrow. Earnings will come in from TARGET, LOWE'S, and CISCO among others.

We are just going to have to sit our way through this little consolidation. At least the good news is that this flailing around.....is not ........really dropping account balances much. We are just kind of stuck in a little range of plus or minus 2-4%....one way or the other. I suppose this means that the markets are NOT confident of where the direction is at the moment. Once it becomes clear....we can either move forward....or....move back....and than MOVE ON. For now we just sit in the OPAQUE.....and wait for clear cut direction.

ALTHOUGH......clear cut direction does not really mean much considering that I am not going to make any moves or sell anything.

This is a frustrating market to see good earnings WASTED.....but it is what it is......sooner or later stock prices will take into consideration the earnings. Nothing I can do about it......except move forward.

 

SO.......to keep things in perspective.....we are STILL at about +10% for the SP500 year to date......and.....this is what the last YEAR looks like as we hit new high after new high after new high.......with a ONE YEAR change of 39.74%.

My chart keeps going away...it shows a steady line from bottom left corner all the way to top right corner with a one year change of 39.74%. Today is a TINY blip on the one year chart that shows new highs continuously over the past year with the usual dips along the way.

 

mizugori....good to see you here and posting.

I sold Snowflake for a small loss. It was a small speculative holding.....100 shares.... and I decided to sell it in the current environment and put those funds into Nvidia. Nvidia did not have as much in it as my other positions so I added to it. I ALSO sold the rest of my Telsa. It represented 100% profit since I earlier sold enough TESLA to cash in my original investment and a nice profit. My total profit on the TESLA was about 150% since I bought in June and July of 2020. I decided to take my profit and not get greedy. Part of the Tesla funds also went into the Nvidia to....again..... beef up that holding and the rest went into the SP500 Index fund.

I still hold the remainder of my USUAL long term holdings:

AMAZON
GOOGLE
MICROSOFT
APPLE
NVIDIA
HOME DEPOT
PROCTOR & GAMBLE
HONEYWELL
COSTCO
NIKE

PLUS.....my SP500 Index Fund and my Fidelity Contra Fund. At the moment as of today....the stock side of the portfolio makes up about 55% and the two funds about 45%. Both sides started roughly at 50/50 long ago. I do not re-balance and I let the winners run.

I have NO PLANS to sell anything else and anticipate that I will own this line-up of stocks and funds for a long time.