The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    “I yam what I yam and tha's all what I yam."
    - Popeye the Sailor Man
     
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  2. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    We were.....having a pretty good market in general today....but....now that some companies have decided to tie themselves to Bitcoin and other CRYPTO.......they are taking the market down some........as bitcoin and crypto falls. This is what happens when you have corporate management and boards jumping on FADS.....or just trying to be COOL.

    I have no issue with companies deciding to take Bitcoin as Payment.....even though it creates a tax and accounting nightmare......due to capital gain and loss issues. I DO.....have an issue with companies using crypto as a depository for corporate cash.
     
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  3. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    Re: crypto... I think we haven’t seen nothing yet... the big avalanche WILL come. The market as a whole WILL pay the price. The “smart” business leaders will sell quick and blame it on something idiotic, like mining, the idiots will hold onto it in a Mcafeeism fashion and sink with the boat until crypto re-emerges sometime later in the future and recruit new idiots on board
     
  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    NO real news or events going on today in terms of the markets....so I will post this little article for my own AMUSEMENT.

    Comedy gold: the economics of internet irony
    This is the new reality of the financial markets: fortunes are built purely on the basis that something is amusing

    https://spectator.us/topic/comedy-gold-economics-internet-irony/

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "If you’re looking for proof we live in a computer simulation, consider the farcical story of dogecoin. Named after an internet meme about a talking dog, the joke currency was created as a parody of bitcoin. Dogecoin has no practical uses, yet online investors have ploughed billions into it. ‘We thought it would just make the viral rounds on social media,’ said founder Jackson Palmer. Last week the valuation passed $68 billion — more than Kraft Heinz and Ford. Palmer is now worth several hundred million dollars. Not bad for a Twitter gag.

    Although it’s seven years old, dogecoin wasn’t a big deal until a few months ago, when supportive tweets from Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, fuelled an explosion in popularity. It is the most successful in the new ‘comedy gold’ asset class: ludicrous investments which reach dizzying valuations simply because people find them funny.

    In January, an online mob of day traders banded together to pump the price of a struggling American video games shop called GameStop. They made reckless bets, pouring in their life savings and taking out payday loans. Its valuation soared 85 times and many of them are now millionaires. The GameStop investors had a superficial political goal: to hurt hedge funds which had bet against the company. But really, it was just about the thrill. And soon it spread to other unloved nostalgic stocks, such as Nokia and Blockbuster, which were selected purely because they were so unfashionable.

    This was the beginning of the 2021 comedy gold rush. A few weeks ago, it emerged that a deli in New Jersey was trading on the stock market for $100 million. This was mainly down to financial engineering by a Chinese investment fund, yet Hometown Deli quickly became a favorite of irony speculators who pile into anything making headlines. Last week, as the rest of the market dipped, shares in the famously grotty cinema chain AMC rocketed after another surge in investment from the ‘memestock apes’.

    The American celebrity media entrepreneur Dave Portnoy is an online genius second only to Musk when it comes to the interplay of irony, investing and the internet. This week, in a special video ceremony, he threw ‘his allegiances’ behind SafeMoon, another joke currency and possible rival to dogecoin. ‘The answer is SafeMoon,’ said Portnoy. ‘Why? I don’t know why… I like the word moon because that is where I want to go.’ Investors duly piled millions of dollars into SafeMoon.

    This is the new reality of the financial markets: fortunes are built and markets are moved purely on the basis of whether something is amusing. Making people laugh on the internet has become a credible marketing strategy for a certain kind of entrepreneur. Aspiring tycoons hand free stakes to meme-market influencers such as Musk in the hope they will tweet about it, like a fake-tan brand courting a Love Island Z-lister. It’s a form of mania, clearly, and it’s reminiscent of the frenzied buying which preceded previous stock-market crashes. At the height of the dotcom bubble, investors greedily acquired any stock with ‘.com’ in the name. This time, speculators are hoovering up anything with the potential to go viral online.

    Something more fundamental has changed, too. Ordinary punters are influencing the public markets as never before. The internet has democratised investing, thanks to trading apps and cryptocurrencies. In the US, retail investors now account for more trading volume than mutual funds and hedge funds combined. Many of them are young thrill-seekers who want quick, large returns. And the pandemic has thrown gasoline on the fire: when most entertainment options aren’t available, and the Biden administration’s stimulus programme is dishing out free money, market speculation becomes the best fun you can have. If you think our investments are mass delusion, ask the irony speculators, what do you think the stock market is? It’s a good question.

    The new army of investors congregate on online forums such as Reddit, where they swap tips and screenshots showing extreme wins and losses. This motivates ever more reckless buying. They look for assets which are likely to get a lot of hype and go on huge bull runs. This is why comedy assets are so popular, because they attract attention. To the online retail investor, attention is the most valuable commodity. To that end, they will passionately advocate for their chosen investments, spamming forums and creating memes about the price going ‘to the moon’.

    The holy grail in this hype cycle is a tweet from Musk. When he announced he was hosting US comedy show Saturday Night Live, dogecoin’s price doubled, as speculators prayed he would ‘pump’ the currency on national television. Instead he called it a ‘hustle’ and the price of dogecoin collapsed.

    Comedy gold-rushers also have an astonishing risk appetite. Last week the New York Times interviewed one of the first dogecoin millionaires, 33-year-old Glauber Contessoto. After reading a Reddit thread about the currency’s potential, he went all in: maxing out his credit cards, borrowing wherever he could and eventually placing a $250,000 bet. His holding is now worth $2 million, but Glauber isn’t selling. ‘Scared money don’t make money,’ he told the paper, before quoting Warren Buffett, a man who has called cryptocurrencies ‘rat poison squared’.

    There is some method to this gung-ho madness. Eye-watering losses are even more popular on Reddit than evidence of gains, and the savvy gold-rusher knows that taking huge risks will help them build an online following, which they can profit from later. But overall it’s a sickeningly risky strategy.

    It’s hard not to root for these ordinary Joes who have achieved financial freedom thanks to wild bets on internet jokes. You can even credit them with a degree of skill for understanding the mechanics of social media and the attention economy. But winners like Contessoto seem unaware of the need to get out of the casino while the going is good, or that they are in a casino at all. Online jokes generally have a short shelf-life, and any asset built on the popularity of a meme is unlikely to be a safe haven for your winnings. GameStop is down 54 per cent from its peak. Cryptocurrencies have taken a battering in recent days.

    All jokes stop being funny in the end, and all bubbles burst. As Bloomberg columnist Matt Levine wrote: ‘Just imagine traveling ten years back in time and trying to explain this to someone; just imagine what an idiot you’d feel like.’ Welcome to the future.

    MY COMMENT

    YES......this "stuff" has even INFECTED major corporations investing BILLIONS of cash..........in crypto. Speculative GAMBLING.....with what is supposed to be a SAFE asset......cash. The CRAZIER this short term stuff gets.....the more important it seems to me.....to be VERY long term. In this sort of....mass insanity environment.....you have two choices if you are NOT a speculative gambler......sit in cash or REAL cash equivalents.......or......go very long with ACTUAL investments like stocks and funds.......to avoid the impact of this MANIA.
     
  5. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    NOTHING....going on today.....so....here are some human interest "ART" stories. Of course MONEY is also involved since these paintings are worth a fortune......when PROVEN to be real. The first article is a painting JUST discovered. The second article is from 2013 and is about a different painting.

    It will be very interesting to see if this latest....."find".....turns out to be the real deal. Even if it turns out to be a fake or even a fraud...it will end up being a very interesting story.

    May 2021

    Long-lost van Gogh masterpiece ‘discovered’ by NYC collector

    https://pagesix.com/2021/05/20/stuart-pivar-claims-hes-rediscovered-a-long-lost-van-gogh/

    Sept 2013

    Long-lost Van Gogh painting identified

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...-gogh-museum-new-van-gogh-identified/2784885/

    It is AMAZING that people can STILL discover extremely valuable items just siting around or even in the TRASH. Here are a few more stories of BIG BUCKS appearing from thin air. Kind of reminds me of some of the money being made out of THIN AIR in the current markets......it happens once in a while....and that is all it takes for the HUMAN GREED to kick in.

    San Jacinto battle painting to be auctioned
    Tucked away in an old house in rural West Virginia, the painting was an enigma coated with a century's dust.

    https://www.mysanantonio.com/news/l...to-battle-painting-to-be-auctioned-851227.php

    Woman Learns The ‘Fake’ Renaissance Painting She Kept Over Her Stove Was Actually A 700-Year-Old Masterpiece

    https://allthatsinteresting.com/cimabue-painting-mocking-of-christ-discovered

    MY COMMENT

    There are lots of CRAZY ways to make money or even get rich. UNFORTUNATELY.......... with many of the various "so called" investments that cause people to shoot for the moon today.....the odds of STRIKING that one big score are always less than the odds of being hit by lightning.......or finding that long lost VAN GOGH or other valuable piece of art in your Grannies attic.
     
    #5805 WXYZ, May 21, 2021
    Last edited: May 21, 2021
  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    WELL.....we are seeing the typical.....East coast lunch time....weakness coming into the markets at the moment. It is weird how that always seems to happen.....when all the East coast financial people are out to lunch.

    NO...I have no idea why this happens. Are they sharing info at lunch? Is it reflecting the market when they are not doing anything.......because they are at lunch? Is it the young traders taking over while their bosses are out at lunch? Does it even matter.......BINGO.
     
  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    We are probably the ONLY investing board with quotes from Ralph Waldo Emerson and Popeye The Sailor Man on the same topic....for that matter on ANY topic.
     
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  8. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    "Who you jivin' with that Cosmik Debris?" - F. Zappa


    I think Frank wrote that song while reading corporate prospecti.
     
  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I have been following Bitcoin since it was at about $2500. I owned my ONE Bitcoin during the last BOOM when it went up near $20,000 before dropping significantly back down. I am currently buying $100 per month of Bitcoin through my Coinbase account.......as a LARK. OR.....as a FLYER in case it goes to over $1MILLION.

    I really have NO confidence in it.......and think people are FOOLING themselves with this item. HERE is the German take on bitcoin....of course you know the German personality.....hard working, practical, stoic, clinical, logical, etc, etc.......so this is not a surprise considering their national temperament.

    Deutsche Bank: 'The value of bitcoin is entirely based on wishful thinking'

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/deut...rely-based-on-wishful-thinking-203038217.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Bitcoin’s (BTC-USD) price plunged 28% this week, this most recent meltdown spurred by an announcement from China and an Elon Musk tweet. The controversial crypto is now losing even more love on Wall Street a day after UBS’s CIO Mark Haefele questioned the need to own bitcoin in a portfolio.

    In a note published Thursday, Deutsche Bank analysts joined the conversation with a research note entitled "Bitcoin: Trendy is the last stage before tacky," quoting the late fashion icon Karl Lagerfeld.

    “What’s true for glamour and style might also be true for bitcoin,” wrote Deutsche Bank’s Marion Labouré after the latest plunge. “Just as a ‘fashion faux pas’ can happen suddenly, we just received the proof that digital currencies can also quickly become passé.”

    In Labouré’s estimation, something has snapped in the cryptocurrency market in the past three months.

    All it took for the cryptocurrency to fall out of style was one tweet and a Chinese government statement,” she wrote.

    On May 12 CEO Elon Musk tweeted that Tesla (TSLA) would stop accepting bitcoin for payment due to environmental concerns.

    Those few words caused bitcoin’s value to plummet from nearly $60,000 in the days before to below $48,000,” she wrote. “Next, on Tuesday, the PBoC reiterated that it would ban digital tokens as a means of payment, thus causing bitcoin to plunge just above $30,000 at one point — its lowest value since January.”

    ‘Not a surprise’
    According to Labouré, the $1 trillion market cap of bitcoin makes it impossible to ignore, but bitcoin’s limited utility for transactions means that “real debate is whether rising valuations alone can be reason enough for bitcoin to evolve into an asset class, or whether its illiquidity is an obstacle.”

    This is why Labouré says “the value of bitcoin is entirely based on wishful thinking.”

    “Bitcoin’s value will continue to rise and fall depending on what people believe it is worth,” a phenomenon that Labouré says is called the “Tinkerbell effect,” because belief is critical.

    A common bitcoiner’s retort is “ok now do fiat,” and while it is the government that makes the dollar the dollar, this power is anything but irrelevant.

    Especially, Labouré says, because central banks and governments are likely to begin regulating crypto by early next year as well as potentially launching their own, like the Federal Reserve’s or China’s digital currency.

    Labouré said the medium- and long-term future of digital assets is uncertain, and it would take a long time for any sort of crypto payments to gain any widespread traction. In the meantime, bitcoin “would circulate and its value can remain volatile.”

    By Deutsche Bank’s estimations, 30% of bitcoin’s activity is for payments and the rest as “financial investment.” And contrary to what its volatility may suggest, the total liquidity isn’t that high. Last year, Apple’s trading volume was 270% of its number of shares; for bitcoin the number was 150%.

    Besides Musk and China, this is another reason why the cryptocurrency may stay volatile.

    Due to bitcoin’s limited tradability, it is expected to remain ultra-volatile; a few additional large purchases or market exits could significantly impact the supply-demand equilibrium,” Labouré wrote. “The root causes of bitcoin’s volatility include small tactical asset allocations and the entries and exits of large asset managers.”

    Pressure from central banks
    The dream of a currency free from central banks dies hard.

    Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sees digital currency as complementing the dollar rather than supplementing it, and whatever the Fed does will affect the crypto markets. In China, the government is taking a more aggressive approach against bitcoin, to make space for its own digital currency.

    “It is clear that China’s targeted regulatory actions are designed to support the launch of its digital currency (CBDC),” Labouré wrote.

    A reminder, Deutsche Bank notes, of the strength of the government’s hand in crypto regulation is the Libra situation, where Facebook announced in 2019 a futuristic global currency that would result in governments having less control over their money supplies. Facebook has since tweaked its plans for a digital currency to be less ambitious.

    “The product now focuses on reducing the cost of payments, rather than competing with governments and central banks by creating a parallel means of payments. In other words, Facebook is not planning to create a competitor currency to the dollar; instead, they hope to compete with traditional ways of paying in dollar,” wrote Labouré.

    This, could be the best lens through which to view crypto, she said — not as a speculative asset but rather a fintech solution to faster and cheaper global payments.

    “In the end, regulating cryptocurrencies is not that difficult,” she wrote, noting that governments will jump to protect their fiscal monopoly even if they left crypto alone for innovation reasons for so long. If there’s a can’t-beat-‘em-join-‘em environment going forward, bitcoin’s transaction issues might leave it behind for a digital asset that provides more utility."

    MY COMMENT

    The TINKERBELL EFFECT.....the perfect description of this "stuff".........I love it. As I type this bitcoin is at $36,484 and ETH is at $2,425. Another very ERRATIC and at the moment DOWN day.

    FUNNY....I dont recall a single person calling or predicting the BIG DROP the other day....or today...... with their charts or Technical Analysis or market timing tools. I wonder why? Could it be that it is all FANTASY.......just like the underlying "coin"?

    ACTUALLY.....I can see and understand someone with a RATIONAL view.......putting some money.....perhaps 2-5%....of their investing funds into Bitcoin for the very long term as a speculative investment. It will be interesting to see what happens to the price of bitcoin as it gets to the point that ALL coins have been mined and the supply is CAPPED. The greatest danger to this strategy is going to be the inability of GOVERNMENT to keep their hands off. BUT.....if someone has a small amount of their investing money to GAMBLE......OK...why not if they understand what they are actually doing and the risk.
     
    #5809 WXYZ, May 21, 2021
    Last edited: May 21, 2021
  10. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Looks like I had good....but random.....timing on my buying of additional shares of NVIDIA when I sold my SNOW stock and again with part of the funds from my cashing in my profit from TESLA.

    Nvidia sets 4-for-1 stock split, shares rise

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-sets-4-1-stock-134342936.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Nvidia Corp on Friday announced a four-for-one stock split as it looks to make its stock less expensive for investors, sending the chipmaker's shares up 3%.

    The company's stock, which was last up at over $600 in premarket trading, has gained nearly 12% this year after its value more than doubled in 2020.

    Stock splits can potentially attract retail investors who make small trades. However, as brokerages increasingly allow customers to buy parts of shares, the benefit of share splits appears to have diluted over time.

    Apple split its stock 4-for-1, while electric carmaker Tesla split its stock 5-for-1 last year, with both companies saying they aimed to make their shares more affordable to individual investors.

    Santa Clara, California-based Nvidia said stock holders of record on July 21 would receive dividend of three additional shares after the close of trading on July 19, with the stock trading on a split-adjusted basis beginning July 20.

    The announced split will require stockholder approval at the company's annual meeting in June."

    MY COMMENT

    NICE to see company management that has a BRAIN. This is the right move and will create shareholder value for current shareholders. I dont care how much they want to push fractional shares......no one...wants to invest thousands of dollars and get 1 or 2 or 3 shares of stock.....it is just NOT human nature. In spite of the FACT and usual statement that stock splits are neutral events......in 45+ years of investing.....I have NEVER failed to come out ahead on a stock split.
     
    #5810 WXYZ, May 21, 2021
    Last edited: May 21, 2021
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  11. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    Wall Street: Thank you everyone for playing
    We hope you join us again next week when we sink the market early in the week again and lift it up on Friday.
     
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  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I was in the red today. NVIDIA was my best bright spot for the day. I also got beat by the SP500 by 0.41%.

    We had a mixed market this week.....and once again considering the DISMAL start to the week....the negative end for the BIG indexes was not that bad.

    DOW year to date +11.77%
    DOW for the week (-0.50%)

    SP500 year to date +10.65%
    SP500 for the week (-0.43%)

    NASDAQ 100 year to date +4.06%
    NASDAQ 100 for the week +0.14%

    NASDAQ year to date +4.52%
    NASDAQ for the week +0.31%

    RUSSELL year to date +12.17%
    RUSSELL for the week (-0.42%)
     
  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Too bad company management and the media have now allowed the BITCOIN insanity to infect and impact daily and weekly stock market results. UNFORTUNATELY.....this will NOW be the NORM...at least for a while.
     
  14. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    -.03 for me today
     
  15. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    "Wall Street: Thank you everyone for playing
    We hope you join us again next week when we sink the market early in the week again and lift it up on Friday."

    The above comment from Zukodany makes me think of the stock markets like...."The Purge"....or the movie....."Running Man". All of us contestants or gamers now have a few days off till we have to hit the GAME BOARD once again in a life and death struggle for survival.

    UNFORTUNATELY......this sort of mentality....gaming, gambling, playing.....is actually big in the markets right now.......and causes much short term disruption. BUT.....it is legal....and being a free market person......I would rather see this than more and more government control and regulation.
     
  16. oldmanram

    oldmanram Well-Known Member

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    Where's TomB and that brain chip for the weekend ?
    Zukodany , don't cut the grass too short , I hate it when it turns brown from being cut too short.
    I was DN .10 ow well ,
    the important stuff:
    I had ALL my daughters at home last night, and most of today, 2 of them live on their own. Took the opportunity to have them pick some stocks. I told them they had some cash in their Roth accounts and that why don't they spend about an hour looking over some stocks and we could buy them, So we sat down at my computer and purchased some shares for the future, they only had $225 to spend, but we all enjoyed it. 2 of them went for some GREEN FUNDS, not surprisingly. They are 17 and 20 , the older one went in a different direction, she already has a Robinhood account, and not surprisingly , she even has some DOGE coin in it. OW well, at this point I'm still just trying to get them interested in something OTHER than boys !!!! But I got them to interact with me for more than 10 minutes , that's a win in my book. :lauging:
     
    #5816 oldmanram, May 22, 2021
    Last edited: May 22, 2021
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  17. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I'm proud for you, OMR.

    It will be interesting to look back at your two youngest daughters in a few years and see if they have developed an interest in investing.

    It sounds like your oldest is already a trader. Does she follow WSB or any online community?

    There is no question, if you want to retire at 40, you need to start saving and investing long before 39. Teens are not to young, at all. I was 17 when I purchased my first stock. It didn't feel good, nor did it feel bad. It felt like I was on a trip without knowing the destination.
     
    #5817 TomB16, May 22, 2021
    Last edited: May 22, 2021
  18. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Always a good thing to get your kids started with investing. Even if it seems like they are distracted by other things in their life......it is still sinking in. Good job oldmanram.
     
  19. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I was putting together some basic info for one of my kids to give them an illustration of their SP500 Index fund and motivation for investing. Here is the recent record of the SP500:

    PERCENT CHANGE OF THE SP500

    One day (-0.08%)
    Three day +0.68%
    Five day (-0.43%)
    One month (-0.42%)
    Three month +6.38%
    Six month +16.82%
    YTD +10.64%
    One year +40.95%
    Three year +51.97%
    Five year +102.50%

    Those are some pretty DRAMATIC numbers.
     
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  20. oldmanram

    oldmanram Well-Known Member

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    They are pretty clueless at this point,
    the oldest 22, follows WSB on Reddit, at least she's following SOMETHING other than Facebook, I send her links to articles I have found applicable to her situation.
    The 20yo, is graduating from UW , and is looking for her first real job, she was interested in the difference between 401K 's and 403b's and ROTH IRA'a so a little interest at least.
    The 17yo , my "communist", so far , wants a Utopian society, zero carbon emissions and nothing to do with money :eek:, except to use my CC at the thrift store. argh This will be interesting in the next few years o_O

    But I'm sure as time rolls on, and supplemental income source (ME) reduces the cushion to reality, they will all start to think about their futures and money in a more realistic way. I know I did

    Thanks for the encouragement guys !!
    Now it's off to watch a little V-ball tourney down in Chehalis WA, It's half way between nowhere and noplace. In southern Washington.
     
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