The Long Term Investor

YEAH....Dogtown...it is like the slackers infect your portfolio and being it down. It is true because nearly 25% of your portfolio was the stinkers that you finally sold. That is a pretty BIG drag on a portfolio......3 out of 13 positions.

There is nothing wrong with buying a stock and seeing if it goes according to how you planed. The key is to identify the losers and get rid of them as quickly as possible without being rash. I have had a holding or two over the years that I sold in less than a month. If a holding disappoints me.....BIGGLY.....right off the bat with no reasonable explanation.....I tend to be quick on the trigger to cut it lose.

Although in hindsight sometimes it turns out that the.......reasonable explanation.......for the poor performance......is simply self delusion and rationalization.

 

Markets OBVIOUSLY CLOSED today........as we HONOR those that served and sacrificed for their country.

 

SO......we have all the news over the past SIX months about inflation, the ten year yield, the economy taking off, etc, etc, etc......YET.....mortgage rates hover at about 3%.......yes......3% for 30 year money. UNHEARD OF on a historical basis in the modern era.

Mortgage rates dip beneath 3% again, offering new refinance savings

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mortgage-rates-dip-beneath-3-130000098.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Mortgage rates have been bobbing up and down like kids on a seesaw for the past several weeks, and now they've dipped back under 3%, a popular survey shows.

Amid mixed signals from the U.S. economy, rates have returned to a level that makes refinancing a no-brainer for many homeowners.

Millions of mortgage holders could refinance into one of today's bargain rates and save close to $300 a month, according to new research.

30-year mortgages

The average interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage — America’s most popular home loan — dropped to 2.95% last week, from an even 3% a week earlier, mortgage giant Freddie Mac reported on Thursday.

Rates are up from January’s all-time low but they’re still among the lowest in history. A year ago, the 30-year fixed was a higher 3.15%, on average.

Today's sub-3% rates are not expected to last as the economy picks up steam and inflation heats up. Mortgage experts have forecast that rates will end 2021 in the mid-to-high 3% range.

Some have even predicted that the 30-year fixed rate could jump above 4% by year-end.

15-year mortgages

The average rate on a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage dropped to 2.27%, according to Freddie Mac's long-running survey. That’s down from 2.29% the previous week and 2.62% last year at this time.

These shorter-term loans are popular among refinancing homeowners who can afford higher monthly payments or want to cut their lifetime interest costs.

Kim Lanham, senior vice president at mortgage technology company Mphasis Digital Risk, recommends that would-be borrowers keep an eye on the yield (interest rate) on the Treasury's 10-year note, a predictor for the direction mortgage rates will take.

Recent economic news, including a report of weak consumer confidence, pulled Treasury yields down last week.

“The best time to get a fixed-rate home loan is when Treasury yields are low, so rather than watching the rates, borrowers can get a good indication of what is going to happen with rates watching these yields,” Lanham tells MoneyWise.

5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages
The typical rate on a 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage was unchanged last week at 2.59%, but down from a year ago when the average was 3.13%.

ARMs usually start out with lower rates than their fixed-rate cousins, but after a period of time the rates can "adjust" up or down, depending on the prime rate or some other benchmark.

These loans are called 5/1 ARMs because they're fixed for the first five years and then adjust every (one) year after that.

14M could benefit from a refinance

With the average 30-year mortgage rate under 3% again, lots of homeowners have the potential to save thousands of dollars and increase their monthly cash flow by refinancing, says Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist.

"In fact, homeowners who refinanced their 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in 2020 saved more than $2,800 dollars annually," Khater says.

An estimated 14.1 U.S. mortgage holders now have the ability to save an average $287 a month by refinancing, the mortgage technology and data provider Black Knight said on Thursday. Roughly 1.7 million could save over $500 monthly through a refi.

You're a good candidate for a refinance if you’ve built up at least 20% equity in your home and could shave at least three quarters of a percentage point (0.75) off your existing interest rate with a new 30-year mortgage, Black Knight says.

It also helps to have a credit score of 720 or better. If you haven’t checked yours in a while, it’s easy to get a peek at your credit score for free.

How to track down the lowest mortgage rate

Low mortgage rates also are benefiting homebuyers as they deal with skyrocketing home prices. Cheap mortgages have allowed borrowers to afford more expensive houses.

“Buyers who purchased a home in the past year and locked in record-low rates will benefit from predictable monthly payments as a hedge against inflation concerns,” says George Ratiu, senior economist with Realtor.com.

If you're determined to find the lowest mortgage rate possible, studies from Freddie Mac and others have shown that comparing mortgage offers from at least five lenders can result in significant savings.

While you're comparison shopping, also look around for the best rate on homeowners insurance, because you might easily be overpaying.

And remember that when you apply for a mortgage, lenders will want to see a solid track record of on-time payments for all your debts. If you have multiple high-interest loans, consider rolling them into a single, lower-interest debt consolidation loan to pay off your balances more quickly and affordably."

MY COMMENT

This is the golden lining of the current housing market. On one hand prices are skyrocketing in many places and it is very difficult to find a home with the low inventory of homes for sale. On the other hand, mortgage rates are at HISTORIC LOWS pushing home payments down to some of the lowest levels in the modern era.

SO....potential buyers are faced with a......BIG CONUNDRUM.......wait for the market to correct and inventory to normalize before buying......OR.......buy now with a historic low payment before the prices rise even more and you get priced out for the market for the long term.

I think that people house hunting will be fine....even if they buy at the market peak.....as long as they are NOT short term buyers. A house should be like other investments......NOT....a short term FLIP....unless you are a house flipper. Most people will be just fine if they are WILLING to be in a house for at the minimum 7-10 years......and.....they are careful to buy in the best neighborhood they can....with a good school district......or.....an up and coming neighborhood. NOW....if you are going to only be in the house for less than 4 years.....that can be a significant risk when you consider the costs to buy and sell in addition to the possibility that the market could drop or crash in the short term.

 

I have been familiar with Vancouver for over 40 years now as a sometimes visitor. The housing market has ALWAYS been insane there. Over the past 20-25 years it kicked up to another level as people from all over the world and especially ASIA wanted to own there. It is an EXTREMELY INTERNATIONAL city.......to me....no other city on the West Coast rivals it. It is a VERY specific and particular real estate market.......and.....a very difficult market.

 

SO....here is a little article on investor behavior......are you an investor or a market timer?

Investors weigh whether to cash in on stock profits as summer kicks off
Big investment houses cautious on taking money off the table even after strong year-to-date gains

https://www.ft.com/content/7c2db7ef...traffic/partner/feed_headline/us_yahoo/auddev

Equities investors are sitting on solid returns since the start of the year, leading them to ask one of the oldest questions in finance: should they take their profits before the summer holidays kick into full gear? Rising valuations for equities, bubbling inflation worries and concerns that central banks will have to tighten the liquidity spigot that has helped to drive up stock markets have all led investors to ponder whether it is best to sit out the coming months. “I’m hearing the ‘sell in May’ question all the time,” said Johanna Kyrklund, chief investment officer at asset manager Schroders.

US stocks are up about 11 per cent since the start of 2021, while those across European bourses have risen about 12 per cent, according to MSCI indices that track both markets in dollar terms. Equities in the Asia-Pacific region have climbed a more modest 4 per cent. These gains have helped to push valuations above their long-term averages on most measures in the US, UK, Europe, Japan and emerging markets.

Still, Schroders is advising its clients to stay invested. “Equity valuations suggest it’s time to slow down in markets, but you can’t take your foot too far off the gas due to the dearth of more defensive options,” Kyrklund said. Neither HSBC nor State Street is recommending a summer off strategy to clients either. S&P 500 total return vs 'sell in May' However, data suggest that in some markets, taking some chips off the table before the summer revs up has been a successful strategy.

Swiss bank UBS found that while a “sell in May” strategy, compared with staying fully invested, delivered outperformance in Europe over the past 15 years it did not in the US. June tends to be a weak month for European equities, which have produced negative returns for the six months between May and October in four years during the past decade, according to UBS. But US returns have turned negative between May and June only in 2001 and 2015 over the same period.

“Trying to time the US market for seasonal reasons would have missed the outperformance of growth stocks in the bull market since the 2008-09 financial crisis,” said Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management. Kyrklund also found seasonal investing unappealing and said it was “too early to be overly defensive” in the present market and economic upswing. “There is no recession on the horizon so you need to stay invested and you can’t sit in cash,” she said.

Schroders recommends against traditional hedges against a fall in equities such as government bonds, gold and cash that deliver little or no income in the current environment. Instead, Kyrklund is advising clients to increase their exposure to value stocks, financials and commodities. HSBC is recommending that investors increase their exposure to UK and continental European equities and south-east Asian stock markets. “Governments bonds are no longer the natural hedge,” said Joanna Munro, the global chief investment officer at HSBC asset management. Lori Heinel, State Street’s global chief investment officer, expects European equities to outperform but thinks Chinese stocks also “deserve consideration” because valuations are below their long-term averages and Beijing is tightening monetary policy. “We have also added exposures to commodities as a hedge against [economic] growth shocks,” she said."

MY COMMENT

NOT a lot of market timers or sellers in the above bunch. OBVIOUSLY the trend for at least the next year is going to be a BOOMING world economy.

I invite any market timers that are lurkers here to do a little experiment.....post your sell dates and your buy back dates....along with prices. This would give others the ability to follow along and see how it works out. Why not....that is what this site is for....the education of investors....it would be an interesting experiment.

Or as an experiment.....any PRETEND MARKET TIMERS......post your PRETEND sells and prices......and later post your PRETEND buys and prices and lets see if you can beat the markets......just for fun. You can stay fully invested and at the same time try your hand at market timing.

NOT for me personally........since I ALWAYS TRUST the academic research which overwhelmingly shows that the majority can NOT time the markets. BUT....that does not mean that specific individuals can never do it successfully......I am sure there must be some outliers.

 

HERE....is what we will be seeing this week. Much of the article is the same old speculative media fear mongering about the FED, inflation, etc, etc.

Zoom earnings, May jobs report: What to know this week

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/zoom-earnings-may-jobs-report-what-to-know-this-week-093111601.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Once investors return from the long holiday weekend in the U.S., all eyes will be on the May jobs report, which will offer a look at the latest progress made in the labor market's recovery and serve as a closely watched signal for the Federal Reserve's forthcoming monetary policy decisions.

Economists have moderated their expectations for payroll gains following April's sharply disappointing monthly jobs report. In that print, the Department of Labor said U.S. employers added back just 266,000 non-farm payrolls during the month, coming in well below estimates for 1 million job additions. The unemployment rate also unexpectedly increased to 6.1%.

Still, the May jobs report will likely show more improvement in the labor market picture. Payrolls are expected to rise by 678,000, according to Bloomberg consensus data, which would mark the biggest increase since March and a fifth consecutive monthly gain. And the unemployment rate is expected to fall to 5.9%, trending to the lowest level since the start of the pandemic more than a year ago in the U.S.

By pre-pandemic standards, the April payrolls gain would have marked an impressive surge in hiring, given that payroll gains were averaging just 168,000 per month in 2019. However, after the pandemic wiped out more than 22 million jobs in the U.S., the economy has been left to make up significant employment losses from the past year alone. Heading into this Friday's monthly jobs report, the economy is still about 8.2 million jobs short of pre-pandemic levels.

"The pandemic resulted in just over 22 million jobs lost in the U.S. economy, and over the last year about 14 million jobs have come back, which means there is quite a bit of slack left in the labor market," Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist for Allianz Investment Management, said in a note Friday. "With lockdown restrictions easing and consumer spending picking up, many market participants have expected outsized job gains in the economy. However, the big miss on the April employment report is a blunt reminder that it may take longer than expected for the labor market to fully recover."

"With the number of job openings increasing to the highest level on record, participants are blaming things like supplemental unemployment benefits as the culprit restricting job growth," he added.

Indeed, with business reopenings taking place at an accelerating clip, one of the biggest concerns for the economy has been around addressing labor shortages. Lingering worries over contracting COVID-19, issues over finding childcare and ongoing enhanced pandemic-era unemployed benefits have all been cited as factors keeping many workers on the sidelines of the labor force, even as businesses scramble for workers. Job openings raced to a record high of more than 8.1 million in March, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said in its most recent monthly report.

Over the past several weeks, nearly two dozen states announced they would be slashing the federal $300 per week in unemployment benefits as soon as in mid-June, even as the federal expiration date for these benefits is set for Sept. 6. Many of the state governors opting for this plan suggested this might encourage individuals to return to work, while other pundits have said the augmented unemployment benefits provide a necessary economic safety net for those hardest-hit by the pandemic.

"Our view has been and remains that the latest payroll report suffered far more from technical issues than it did from people making a decision to avoid finding a job because of generous unemployment insurance benefits," economists from RBC Capital Markets wrote in a note Friday. "Make no mistake, as we have said many times over the months, we believe that is in fact creating an issue, but we do not believe it was why the consensus missed by nearly 1 million jobs last month."

This Friday's payrolls report will also serve as a closely watched metric for investors in suggesting whether labor market conditions have improved substantially enough to warrant a near-term move by the Federal Reserve. The central bank has signaled it is looking for "substantial further progress" toward its goals of maximum employment and price stability before considering a rollback of crisis-era quantitative easing or a hiking of benchmark interest rates.

The sharply disappointing April employment report appeared to affirm that the Fed could comfortably remain on hold with its current highly accommodative monetary policies. A significant improvement in the labor market picture, however, could weaken that stance.

"This is a critical data point for the Fed in deciding the path of monetary policy, especially given the surge in inflation and inflation expectations," Bank of America economist Michelle Meyer wrote in a note on Friday. "Another weak jobs report could delay the Fed's discussion around asset purchases but a strong rebound could give the Fed more confidence in the recovery and the ability to start guiding markets towards a taper in asset purchases."

Zoom earnings
While the vast majority of major public companies have already reported first-quarter earnings results, a handful of closely watched companies including Zoom Video Communications (ZM) are poised to post results.

Zoom's earnings, due for release after market close on Tuesday, will serve as a signal of the resilience of work-from-home company fundamentals as more individuals start to return to the office and to other in-person activities.

Wall Street has been bracing for a growth slowdown this year in Zoom's sales and new users. Recent results from peer stay-from-home beneficiary Netflix (NFLX) have been emblematic of this phenomenon, with new subscribers slowing sharply in the first quarter and missing consensus expectations.

Last quarter, however, Zoom easily exceeded consensus estimates and offered an upbeat full-year outlook, helping assuage Wall Street's concerns that the video conferencing's business might be sharply weakened by a broader economic reopening later this year. And new product innovations outside of Zoom's core video conferencing business have helped drive additional customer engagement, with its two-year-old Zoom Phone cloud-based platform reaching 1 million seats at the beginning of this year.

"While our checks were admittedly more up-market, they suggested that customer churn may prove to be lower-than-expected," UBS analyst Karl Keirstead wrote in a note published May 26. "The post-pandemic end state appears to be work-from-anywhere (virtually from home or in the office) which should help support continued spending on collaboration software for years to come."

For the three months ended in April, Zoom is expected to grow revenue 177% year-on-year to $909.9 million. While this would be faster than the 169% growth rate from the same three months in 2020, it would be markedly slower than the 369% rate Zoom saw in its fiscal fourth quarter.

Customers with more than 10 employees — a closely watched metric gauging Zoom's ability to attract and retain highly lucrative customers — are expected to have grown by 19,900 over last quarter to reach 486,400. This would also mark an increase of about 86% over last year, which while still impressive, would be a deceleration from the triple-digital growth rates Zoom posted over the course of 2020.

Shares of Zoom have fallen 1.9% for the year-to-date. The stock has underperformed against both the S&P 500 and small-cap Russell 2000, which have risen 12.1% and 11.6%, respectively, so far in 2021.

Earnings calendar

• Monday: N/A
  
• Tuesday: Zoom Video Communications (ZM), Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. (HPE) after market close
  
• Wednesday: Advanced Auto Parts (AAPS) before market open; Splunk (SPLK), C3.ai Inc (AI), Endeavor Group Holdings (EDR) after market close
  
• Thursday: CrowdStrike (CRWD), Broadcom (AVGO), Slack (WORK), MongoDB (MDB), DocuSign (DOCU) after market close
  
• Friday: N/A
  

Economic calendar

• Monday: N/A
  
• Tuesday: Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI, May final (61.5 expected, 61.5 in prior print); Construction spending month-over-month, April (0.6% expected, 0.2% in March); ISM Manufacturing, May (61.0 expected, 60.7 in April); Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index, May (36.5 expected, 37.3 in April)
  
• Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended May 28 (-4.2% during prior week); Federal Reserve releases Beige Book
  
• Thursday: Challenger job cuts, year-over-year, May (-96.6% in April); ADP employment change, May (690,000 expected, 742,000 in April); Initial jobless claims, week ended May 29 (410,000 expected, 406,000 during prior week); Continuing claims, week ended May 22 (3.642 million during prior week); Markit U.S. Services PMI, May final (70.1 expected, 70.1 in prior print); Markit U.S. composite PMI, May final (68.1 in prior print); ISM Services index, May (63.3 expected, 62.7 in April)
  
• Friday: Change in non-farm payrolls, May (678,000 expected, 266,000 in April); Unemployment rate (5.9% expected, 6.1% in May); Average hourly earnings, month-over-month, May (0.2% expected, 0.7% in May); Average hourly earnings, year-over-year, May (1.6% expected, 0.3% in April); Labor force participation rate, May (61.7% in April); Durable goods orders, April final (-1.3% in prior print); Factory orders, April (0.4% expected, 1.1% in March); Durable goods orders excluding transportation, April final (1.0% in prior print); Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, April final (2.3% in prior print); Non-defense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft, April final (0.9% in prior print)
  

MY COMMENT

Really NOTHING going on this upcoming week. It is pretty pathetic that the best that can be said is the MAY jobs report. No way to make that a real SEXY market topic. AND.....I expect that the report will be the same as April......a big nothing burger. My GUESS....payrolls will severely underperform and the unemployment rate will stay the same or get worse.

My view is that is IMPOSSIBLE for the unemployment rate to get anywhere near where it was just prior to the pandemic.

A few earnings to watch over the week....ZOOM....DocuSign......CrowdStrike........and.......Broadcom. BUT....earnings are really OVER and I dont see any earnings having much impact as we finish up. SO.....all in all.....just a re-hash of the past three weeks in the markets. How we end up will just depend on the randomness of the markets over the week with NOTHING really going to matter other than the usual speculative BS.

 

A good strong open for what is left of the week. Although the direction since the open has been somewhat weak.....at least that is my FEEL for today. Probably a little profit taking on the opening numbers.

There is NOTHING new today and the little bit of earnings and economic data this week is meaningless. SO.....we end up with a week that is going to be a REPEAT of the past three weeks. In other words the media will HARP on inflation, bitcoin, and the FED as they have been doing for a month or two.

I see them trying to PUSH the inflation fear mongering today as the story-line of the day. FORTUNATELY....no one cares. they have BEAT that dead horse to death. Everyone in the entire country NOW has an opinion about inflation.....from the yard worker to the paperboy to the plumber to the clerk in the dollar store.....and.....it is EXHAUSTED as a topic with ability to scare or move people.

BASIC market direction continues to be......UP, UP, UP.........with the normal erratic days and periods of short term turmoil......in other words a NORMAL market.

I continue to be fully invested for the long term as usual.

 

I do NOT see this as a market rotation......rather......I see it as a catch up move by stocks that were hammered by the pandemic and have now done some "catch-up" to the rest of the markets. A sign of a STRENGTHENING BROAD market recovery.

US small-cap value outperforms by widest margin since 2nd world war

https://www.ft.com/content/839cf58b...traffic/partner/feed_headline/us_yahoo/auddev

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Beaten up US small-cap value stocks outperformed large-cap growth ones by the largest margin since the depths of the second world war in the six months to the end of March, data show.

The remarkable bounceback comes after a lengthy period in which small-cap and value stocks have undershot the broader market, despite both being widely recognised in academic papers as investment “style factors” that have historically generated long-term out performance. As of October last year, value stocks were enduring their worst run in at least 200 years, according to one measure, leading some to question whether the value premium had been permanently erased by the changing structure of business.

However, data from Dimensional Fund Advisors, a $630bn Texan fund house, shows that US small value stocks returned a striking 76.8 per cent in the half year to March 31, way ahead of the 14.4 per cent made by large growth companies. The resulting 62.4 percentage point differential is the largest for any rolling six-month period since the first half of 1943, Dimensional said.

The two periods have striking similarities, with 1943 marked by mounting optimism that the war was turning decisively in the Allies’ favour, and the more recent period driven by hopes that the development of vaccines would turn the tide against Covid-19. The largest ever gap in favour of small value over large growth occurred in the six months to August 1933, as the world, led by the US, started to recover from the Great Depression.

“The return difference [in the six months to March] was pretty eye-catching. It was extreme and it was pretty commonplace around the globe,” said Wes Crill, head of investment strategists at Dimensional. He said the resurgence was more striking still given that the small value-large growth differential in the six months to August 2020, at -37.7 per cent, was the sixth worst since records began in 1926.

Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group, argued that a powerful snapback by small-cap and value was almost inevitable after such a dire period. “We stretched the rubber band a long way in [the market] dropping 32 per cent in 23 days in March, and you can rest assured that small-cap value probably went down twice as much relative to large-cap growth,” Paulsen said. “The forces of recovery, when we found that the pandemic wasn’t going to kill our civilisation or last for five years, meant we would see a strong snapback in the things that were most affected. “We can’t have gone through another period in history where we went from depression-like collapse to wartime boom within a year.”

Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco, said positive news about vaccines in November had been “truly a game changer” that led the stock market to anticipate a strong economic recovery. The dramatic volte-face can be seen in fund flows data. Last year US value mutual and exchange traded funds domiciled in the US bled $70.2bn of assets, according to Morningstar data, the worst 12 months in a four-year run of solid outflows. So far this year these funds have taken in $37.5bn, with flows to small-cap value products disproportionately strong, equivalent to 5 per cent of the assets they held at the end of 2020.

Factoring in the rebound in stock prices, small-cap value funds now hold $221bn, up 29.6 per cent from December 31. Small-cap growth funds have also seen positive flows, even as large and mid-cap ones have been sold down. The picture is similar for European-domiciled funds, with value ones taking in money for the first time since 2016 so far this year, and US and European growth funds seeing outflows, although global growth is still in demand. Dimensional, which largely focuses on value and small-cap stocks, or at least broader equity portfolios tilted towards these factors, said the bounceback had probably not run its course.

“[The rebound] was pretty close to unprecedented, but I don’t think that means anyone has missed the boat,” said Crill. This claim would appear to be borne out by his data, which show that when the six-month small value-large growth differential is in the top quartile, it tends to be above average in the following half-year period as well. “It’s good news for investors,” Crill said. “It’s not too late to get on the value train. You don’t see mean reversion. You don’t necessarily see a poor number subsequently.” Paulsen argued that the unusual events from November onwards represented a “perform storm” in favour of small value.

Nonetheless, he remains overweight small-caps and cyclicals in the belief that such stocks tend to outperform in the second year of a bull market. Hooper said there was “definitely a credible argument to be made for longer-term out
performance for value and smaller caps”, with the most likely scenario one in which these stocks “continue strong ou
performance for much of the rest of this year”. More broadly, Crill remained convinced the value premium — whereby stocks with a low market valuation relative to their book value, earnings, cash flows or sales, tend to outperform more highly priced stocks over the long term — remained a valid concept. “Over the last 10-12 years it has not been anything to do with value delivering poor returns, it has really been growth delivering outsize returns; almost 100 per cent greater than its long-term average over this period,” Crill said.

“There are differences in discount rates across stocks. Future cash flows are discounted more or less. We are paying less. That’s an evergreen principle. As long as you believe how much you pay for an investment has an effect on return, then the expected premium is always there.” "

MY COMMENT

This represents a normal market reaction. I dont see some sort of BIG ROTATION to value. I simply see a part of the market that SEVERELY LAGGED.....making back some of the losses.......and....reestablishing their "normal" allocation to funds. In other words a NORMALIZATION of the various market segments and a NORMALIZATION of distribution of investor cash.

MOST investors will be better off to simply continue with their typical strategy.......and not......try to chase after the HOT segment of the market in the short term. The tide we are seeing right now......WILL....raise all boats. My strong preference will be to stick with my BIG CAP GROWTH stocks....as usual.

We are going to see a BROAD RALLY over the next year or two. At different times different market segments will vary in intensity.....but....generally whatever works for you....JUST DO IT.....it will be hard to be wrong as an investor with the re-opening.

 

Good post Mr Sparkle. My CONTINUED view is we are going to see many price increases driven by supply and demand imbalances as we TRY to re-open. It will take about a year or so to smooth things out and get business running normally.

We are ALSO going to see a BIG amount of price gouging.

I think you are right and the data supports what you are saying....commercial real estate is going to have ISSUES.

 

HERE is the economic data of the day....for any that care.

Construction spending posts modest 0.2% gain in April

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/construction-spending-posts-modest-0-141021482.html

AND

U.S. manufacturing sector picks up in May; work backlogs rising - ISM

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-manufacturing-sector-picks-may-140644978.html

AND......here is the OBVIOUS article of the DECADE:

Stock market correction is likely in 12 to 36 months: CFA Institute

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...-12-to-36-months-cfa-institute-133135620.html

MY COMMENT

DUH.....actually the largest DUH possible. There will be a correction some time in the next 12-36 months....WOW.....who would have known. Since we tend to have at least one or more corrections per year....this is a pretty good prediction.