The Long Term Investor

May jobs are out at 559,000. Well below the consensus number.....but....still a pretty good number. Not as much of a DISASTER as the last report. this might be enough of a number to satisfy the market......and......at the same time keep the FED at bay.

Perhaps a GOLDILOCKS number. Lets hope for a great day.

 

I like this EXPLANATION of the current inflation numbers and how they are calculated.

Why the Inflation Bogeyman Is Not Yet Imminent

https://www.realclearmarkets.com/ar...tion_bogeyman_is_not_yet_imminent_780035.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"A 4.15% inflation rate! Do we need to slam on the breaks before our life savings dwindle to nothing?

Chill out: we don't need to panic. That big headline number is mostly an artifice of how the inflation rate is typically reported, and absolutely nothing more.

Inflation is reported by comparing the current price level to the price level one year past. Normally, that makes sense -- how have prices changed over the last twelve months? But the price level one year ago, like everything else one year ago, was not exactly normal. And there's the rub.

Think back to April of 2020. At the start of the month, new Covid infections were doubling every seven or eight days. All across the country, people were retreating into the safety of their own homes as much as they possibly could. Consumer spending was crashing. Twenty million jobs were disappearing almost overnight. And so, not surprisingly, prices were falling.

The drop was big--CPI fell about 1% between February and May, which would translate to a -4% inflation rate if it lasted a full year -- but it was not particularly newsworthy, given everything else that was going on. And unlike other price drops, it was not just in the volatile food and energy sectors: the Chained-CPI excluding food and energy fell 0.6% in that three-month span, the equivalent of a -2.4% annual inflation rate.

But it means that when the government reported an inflation rate of 4.15% for this April, it was comparing the current price level to one that was artificially depressed a year ago, making that 4.15% number artificially inflated. The obvious solution is to compare April's price level not to the Covid-depressed price level of April 2020 but to pre-Covid April 2019.

That comparison shows that this April's price level was 4.51% higher than it was two years ago, which translates to an annual inflation rate of 2.23%. Better yet, if we do the same comparison using the less volatile Chained-CPI excluding food and energy, the annual inflation rate was 1.92%. Since the Fed has set 2% as its target, it is no wonder it isn't panicking. And neither should you.

Incidentally, this same issue will affect the reported May inflation rate when it comes out, and to a decreasing extent, the reported inflation rates for the rest of this year. But as long as that reported rate is under about 4.3% for May and under about 3.1% by September, there is no inflation to worry about. The "surge" in inflation being reported will be nothing more than prices readjusting from the pandemic shock they experienced a year ago.

MY COMMENT

For the MAJORITY of my life NORMAL......and.....HEALTHY inflation has been between 3% and 4.5%. This is one reason that I am not concerned with where inflation is right now. We have SUDDENLY changed the definition of what is BAD inflation.

I ALSO.....being a life long investor.....have invested for nearly my entire life during higher.......3$ to 5% inflation. I have seen the result of that investing and therefore have NO FEAR of what is being touted as inflation at this moment in time.

There is great benefit to an investor of having a SOLID grasp of economic and investing history. For that matter......ALL history.

 

Here is more on the May JOBS NUMBERS.

U.S. stock futures rise after solid job gains in May

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/03/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"U.S. stock futures gained slightly on Friday as the key May jobs report showed solid gains, boosting confidence in the economic comeback.

S&P 500 futures rose 0.4%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures erased earlier losses and rose 80 points. Nasdaq 100 futures were 0.5% higher.

The U.S. economy added 559,000 jobs in May, the Labor Department said on Friday. The number came in slightly lower than an estimate of 671,000 from economists surveyed by Dow Jones, but still showed a healthy rebound in the labor market as it’s up from a disappointing 266,000 payrolls added in April.

The unemployment rate fell to 5.8% from 6.1%, which was better than the estimate of 5.9%. Many believe the jobs report, while solid, is not strong enough to trigger the Federal Reserve to dial back its bond buying program.

The 10-year Treasury yield dipped slightly following the jobs report.

The major averages closed lower on Thursday as gains in economic comeback plays were offset by declines in tech shares. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 23 points, after dropping as much as 265 points. The S&P 500 slid nearly 0.4%. The Nasdaq Composite was the relative underperformer, dipping more than 1% as Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google-parent Alphabet dropped.

Boosting sentiment around economic reopening, May’s private job growth rose at its fastest clip in nearly a year as companies hired nearly a million workers, according to ADP. Total hires came to 978,000 for the month, a big jump from April’s 654,000 and the largest gain since June 2020. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for 680,000.

The latest unemployment data released Thursday was also better than expected. First-time claims for unemployment benefits for the week ended May 29 totaled 385,000, compared to the Dow Jones estimate of 393,000. It also marked the first time that jobless claims fell below 400,000 since the early days of the pandemic.

Meme stocks continued their wild prices swings on Thursday, especially AMC Entertainment. The movie theater operator said Thursday morning it was going to sell 11.5 million shares only to announce several hours later it already completed its stock offering, raising $587.4 million in additional capital."

MY COMMENT

As George Bush would say:

"There's an old saying in Tennessee—I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee—that says, 'Fool me once, shame on...shame on you. Fool me—you can't get fooled again."

NOT.....to being politics in here....but I love that TWISTED saying......and how a bit of song lyrics are brought in at the end.......and it applies to the CONSTANT fear mongering that has been going on since last May.

Are people starting to FINALLY wake up to the constant media pounding of the doom and gloom and fear mongering? This jobs report has been HYPED for weeks now. Over and over and over. In the end......NEVER MIND.

It is all one big game. The traders LOVE IT. Within five minutes of the jobs number coming out today I heard a talking head saying......"yeah but what will really matter is the number that will be reported next month". So.....it starts right back. The......NEXT......crisis to worry about.....the....NEXT....."thing" to FEAR. My advice to investors........which I actually think the majority of investors are already doing.......is....RELAX. AND.....enjoy the ride.

 

For those that LOVE data......here is a bit more of the data in the report.

May jobs report: Economy adds back 559,000 jobs, unemployment rate fell to 5.8%

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/may-...rm-payrolls-unemployment-labor-184624849.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"The U.S. economy added back another more than half a million jobs in May, with employment accelerating from April but still missing estimates even as the jobless rate slid to a new pandemic-era low.

The U.S. Labor Department released its May jobs report Friday morning at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here were the main metrics from the report, compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:

• Change in non-farm payrolls: +559,000vs.+675,000 expected and a revised +278,000 in April
  
• Unemployment rate: 5.8% vs. 5.9% expected and 6.1% in April
  
• Average hourly earnings, month-over-month: 0.5%vs. 0.2% expected and 0.7% in April
  
• Average hourly earnings, year-over-year: 2.0%vs.1.6% expected and a revised 0.4% in April
  

Friday's report also came with revisions to the prior two month's payroll gains. April's payrolls were upwardly revised by 12,000 to 278,000, while March's non-farm payrolls increase was raised to 785,000 from 770,000. Altogether, the U.S. economy is still about 7.6 million jobs short of its pre-pandemic levels from February 2020, and would require more than a year to recoup this deficit at the current pace of job gains.

Some of the industries within the service sector that had been most deeply impacted by the pandemic saw another surge in re-employment during the month. The leisure and hospitality industry added back 292,000 jobs in May on top of 328,000 in April. This was followed by education and health services with an increase of 87,000 jobs, or more than three times the April gain. Professional and business services, transportation and warehousing, and temporary help services industries swung back to job gains in May after shedding payrolls on net during the prior month.

Jobs in the goods producing sector were up just slightly in May after falling by 36,000 in April. Construction industries shed jobs for a back-to-back month and at an accelerating rate, while manufacturing payrolls swung back to a gain of 23,000 jobs following a loss of 32,000 in April.

While overall payroll gains in May came up short compared to consensus estimates, the miss was narrower than the one seen in April, when just over a quarter-million jobs were added back versus the 1 million expected. On the whole, consensus economists were looking for a stronger print on the labor market for May, given that an additional wave of vaccinations, business reopenings and eased mask mandates have taken place in the past month.

The May increase in non-farm payrolls represented the largest since March and a fifth straight monthly gain. And at 5.8%, the unemployment rate for May also marked the lowest level since March 2020, reversing course after unexpectedly rising in April. However, that drop in the jobless rate also came alongside an unexpected drop in the labor force participation rate to 61.6% from the 61.7% in May, suggesting a smaller share of Americans out of work returned to the labor force to look for or take new jobs.

"We expect that in the coming months there will be a significant rise in the labor force participation rate because several factors point in that direction," UBS economist Pablo Villanueva said in a note ahead of the May jobs report. "Schools are reopening, COVID risks are diminishing, and in many states unemployment benefits are coming down."

"It is difficult to identify the impact of each of these policies on supply but they all point towards more people joining the labor force," he added. "All in all, our view on the labor market is one of underlying strength during the coming months but with abnormally high levels of noise."

As consumer mobility picks up, companies have been struggling with labor supply shortages to meet demand. A paucity of qualified workers to fill positions has weighed on both manufacturing and services sector activity, according to Institute for Supply Management reports out earlier this week. The Federal Reserve's Beige Book, or collection of anecdotes tracking economic conditions across the major Fed districts, also highlighted this strain.

"It remained difficult for many firms to hire new workers, especially low-wage hourly workers, truck drivers, and skilled tradespeople," according to the Beige Book on Wednesday. "Contacts expected that labor demand will remain strong, but supply constrained, in the months ahead."

The May jobs report were not only set to signal the strength in rehiring, but also suggest whether the economy has rebounded to an extent that might warrant a shift in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. Some central bank officials suggested recently it may be time to "think about thinking about" tapering of the Fed's $120 billion in asset purchases each month, though the back-to-back disappointments in payroll gains in April and May may serve as justification to remain on hold. "

MY COMMENT

A "PERFECT" report for stock investors. Positive....but not too positive. We need a good day to end the week for investors........SOMEONE BUY SOMETHING.

 

We have DEGENERATED to the point that.......the daily market talk.......is ALL sensationalism. That is one reason for the MEME stock.....STUFF. That is the reason for the IRRATIONAL focus on every report.....every FED meeting......every media comment by some so called expert.

It is ALL one big ECHO CHAMBER.....one big self fulfilling prophesy.

At least that is the ....."perception".....of the markets. The ....good news......I dont see the average investor buying any of it. There is a HUGE silent majority of investors. All the 401K investors.....all the IRA investors.....all the people that are working and raising families and saving through investing for the future.......are the REAL guts of the markets. Their story is not SEXY......it is BORING....but.......it does represent the REAL investing universe. AND....the VAST MAJORITY of those types of investors are LONG TERM.

 

In line with the above......I saw this little article late last night. As I was reading....I was thinking....is this a joke....is it sarcasm.....or....does this guy really believe this. I finally came to the conclusion that he was serious.....although I am still not totally sure. I post this for TOTALLY contrary view...to my own....and as an interesting take on the state of the markets and the people.....investors......that populate the markets.

Your father’s stock market is never coming back

https://fortune.com/2021/06/02/chan...g-robinhood-btc-tsla-gme-eth-amc-nfts/?7j3g0c

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Jerry gets up and puts on a pot of coffee. Squawk Box is on the television. They’re bantering about whatever happened on Twitter that morning. Jerry’s not on Twitter. He’s tired of hearing about all the rhetorical twists and turns on the app that are constantly pushing his stocks around. Sports commentators and actors turned venture capitalists are causing gyrations in the value of his retirement portfolio with their online antics.

Remember when stocks traded on fundamentals? Or at least they traded based on people’s perceptions of the fundamentals. What do they trade on today? It was always a popularity contest. Now it’s a three-ring circus.

It makes no sense. Jerry is tired.

Upstairs there’s a burst of excitement, the sound of a young man cheering. It’s Jerry’s kid, Aiden. Aiden’s been out of school for years. He’s making as much as Jerry did 30 years ago. That’s not enough to buy a house these days, but it’s plenty to sit in a room all day and speculate. Aiden’s trading as much as he’s working in his actual work-from-home job, and it sounds like he just scored again.

Jerry spent three decades saving and investing, prudently, and dutifully. He and Nancy have accumulated $1.2 million—for them it’s all the money in the world. Took them their entire lives.


Aiden made $800,000 in the past 12 months, starting with the $25,000 his grandfather left him. He did it from a phone, knowing virtually nothing about the instruments he traded. Read a few posts on Seeking Alpha, saw a few tweets from Mark Cuban, and pressed the Buy button. Then again, and again. Then with leverage. Then with crypto. It worked, repeatedly. Large gains led to larger trades, which led to even larger gains. “Why doesn’t everyone do this?”

Jerry’s role in the market is changing. He’s entering what financial planners euphemistically call “the decumulation phase,” as his consulting work slows down and his retirement income needs ramp up. The popular rule-of-thumb retirement income strategy—withdrawing 4% per year—cannot be accomplished with bond yields alone, as in the olden days. If Jerry wants his 4%, he’ll have to get some of it from principal, which means being a seller of stocks for the next few decades.

As Jerry and his generation gradually exit from the market, they’re being replaced by Aiden’s cohort. And Aiden’s cohort isn’t sentimental. The conventions from Jerry’s day hold no interest for Aiden or Jayden or Chelsea or Tyler or Madison. They don’t respect the traditions. The publications. The protocols. The norms. There’s no advice you can give them that they will adhere to, just as the boomers defied their Depression-era parents with their own excesses.

There’s an old “Wizard of Id” cartoon Jerry remembers from his own youth in the ’60s. It said, “Remember the Golden Rule: Whoever has the gold makes the rules.” Aiden’s generation went from almost no participation in the stock market to overnight dominance of it. They have the gold. They make the rules. Millions of new brokerage accounts. Trillions in value transferred from taxpayers and the Federal Reserve into accounts at Robinhood and Coinbase. More money pouring in with every paycheck. Leverage, too, because either this generation is truly fearless or (more likely) they haven’t had enough time to lose money yet. Either way, they decide what’s important to pay attention to and what’s irrelevant. If they choose to react to a 10-word Elon Musk tweet rather than a three-hour Warren Buffett monologue, how will you stop them?

How do you explain stock market risk to someone whose only formative experience with it took the form of a 16-day bear market last March, about the length of time of an NBA Finals series? How do you convince newly minted investors that diversification makes sense when the first stock they ever bought, Tesla, rose 800% while everything else moved in slow motion? How can you expect them to respect their elders when their elders seem to be giving them horrible advice? “Don’t trade too often, don’t use margin, Bitcoin is fake, Tesla is overvalued, cannabis is a bubble, SPACs are a scam …” You are Charlie Brown’s teacher now—your admonitions have become background noise.

And besides, it’s all been so easy. Between March 23, 2020 (the market bottom), and that same date this year, 96% of U.S. stocks had a positive return. You could not have lost money if you’d tried. Imagine learning to invest in an environment like this. How would you be acting if this was your first experience with stocks? Jerry can’t understand it. He’s seen bull markets, but nothing like this before. Everything goes up.

We locked everyone in their homes for a year and gave them a virtual life to live on their screens. Why should we be surprised if they treat money and investments like prizes in a video game?


If you had opened your first brokerage account in the spring of 2020, you would most likely have opened it at Robinhood. You didn’t drive over there, park your car, and talk to a man in a suit about your objectives. Instead, you downloaded an app, transferred $500 in from your couch, and pressed some buttons. Within 24 hours that $500 was likely worth $750. Within a week, $3,600. “I am a genius,” you said. “I should put in more. I should borrow some. What’s moving faster than stocks?”

With a Robinhood account, your first exposure to cryptocurrencies does not frame them as an unproven alternative to stocks. The two stand on equal footing. Coke and Pepsi. Feel like trading one or the other? Have at it, no difference. This is radically different from the experience of the Gen X and boomer investors logging in through Schwab, Fidelity, or Vanguard to check their balances or download a statement. They may come across a link to an article about crypto, but it certainly won’t be an opportunity to transact. On Robinhood’s app you practically can’t escape it. The generation creating the new conventions of the investing landscape views stocks and crypto coins as interchangeable. Aiden can’t discern any difference between trading one or the other. Both were available to buy and sell from the first day he got started, just as stocks and bonds were when Jerry first opened his IRA. If it moves, it moves. Take a moment to process this, but get used to it. Like the air you breathe, it’s not going away.

Aiden is taking profits from Bitcoin and Tesla and GameStop and Ethereum and Polkadot and AMC and Riot Blockchain. He’s not going to take Jerry’s advice on what to do with the proceeds, either. He’s not putting some in the bank. He’s not buying any “Spider ETFs,” whatever that is. His gold, his rules. He’s buying NFTs instead. Crypto art. Fractions of Ferraris. NBA video clips.

You are Charlie Brown’s teacher now—your admonitions have become background noise.

Aiden’s girlfriend Lakshmi works in marketing for Airbnb. When the company went public this winter, her net worth soared above Aiden’s and Jerry’s combined. A job she held for three years paid her more than a lifetime’s worth of Jerry’s savings. All those meetings, mediations, court appearances, and late nights reading through documents. All that travel and commuting. Jerry invested prudently because the money seemed irreplaceable. He’d traded hours and days and years to save it up. The same amount is now raining on people daily. They’re earning his portfolio’s value by accident. Earning isn’t the right word. Stumbling upon is more apropos.

Lakshmi knows it’s unlikely she will experience a liquidity event like this again. But she also has her whole life ahead of her. She has no idea what she wants to do with the rest of her twenties, so the idea of retirement is almost farcical. An equally laughable notion is that she should settle for the annual average returns of the “safe” 60/40 stock-and-bond portfolios touted by planners and advisers. “Do you see anyone who’s doing anything average getting ahead in life?” she asks herself. “America doesn’t work for average people.” She has a portfolio with more angel investments than blue-chip stocks. Her college friends and former colleagues are starting companies and soliciting capital. These businesses are getting funded, scaled, and acquired almost as fast as they can hire. Why anyone would prefer a mutual fund is a total mystery to her.


This is Aiden and Lakshmi’s market. It’s growing horizontally and cannot even contain the amount of capital swirling around in the ether. It’s expanded outward to include blank-check companies, venture-backed startups, tradable bits of computer code, investable software protocols, claims on fractional ownership in everything from comic books to cars and a whole lot more. The everything-goes-up era will end someday, maybe even soon, but the habits, expectations, and ambitions it created won’t go away.

For 14 months, the digital stock market hummed along without a hitch while the physical location that was once emblematic of American capitalism—the New York Stock Exchange—sat closed and nearly empty, a museum commemorating an earlier version of the world. Jerry’s stock market is fading away with every passing day. And it’s never coming back.

Here’s the actuarial math: If Jerry makes it to 65, he has a one in four shot of making it to 95. That could mean a retirement spanning three decades. Interest rates on Treasuries are not going to get him there. The one thing we know about the post-pandemic period is that its primary attraction is skyrocketing costs for everything. Lumber, labor, Chevy Silverados, single-family homes, microchips—you name it, the price is up. The only thing getting cheaper is money. The purchasing power of Jerry’s dollars will decline by 3% this year, statistically. In reality, it’ll be much worse. To offset this, the stock market is still one of the only games in town.

Yes, it all belongs to Aiden’s generation now, but Jerry still has to find a way to live with it—and to understand how the game is changing. To become fluent in the discourse. To familiarize himself with the rappers and influencers signing fashion deals at Gap, launching cannabis startups, backing blockchain projects. To learn the memes and clapbacks shaping each day’s discussions and outcomes. Jerry’s got his work cut out for him."

MY COMMENT

I am STILL not sure this writer believes what he is writing. BUT....does that even matter.

The TRUTH is that on some level much of the stuff in this little "story" is reality......at least to a very small number of people. YES.....some tiny percentage of young people.......WILL......actually be successful investing in meme stocks and other crazy investments. AND....some small percentage of young people......will.......hit the jackpot working for a company that goes public and pays off big to SOME of the employees.

Is this REALLY.....the new normal? AM "I"......Jerry in this little parable? The truth.......I dont know and dont really care.

We now have 7.674BILLION people in the world. SO....there are 7.674BILLION parallel universes...at the moment. Some overlap some dont. "MY" reality is......."MY" normal.....and since we are ALL allowed to create our own reality....at the moment......I will just live in mine.....you live in yours.

 

Nvidia is now approaching a $100 gain per share since the stock split announcement. It is up early today by about $15. I can not find any information of the shareholder vote on approving the split....but....I imagine it is nearly a ZERO chance that it will not happen.

Imagine if AMAZON announced a 5 for 1 split or a 10 for 1 split. The stock would skyrocket....at least short term. As a shareholder I am certainly HOPING that the new CEO takes charge and immediately engineers a split for the stock. The stock has been up and down....but....since last July it is pretty much stuck in a trading range. The price is just....TOO HIGH per share........and....it is hurting performance and shareholders.

 

One important trait of a successful investor is FLEXIBILITY. Have a long term plan...but realize that plan WILL change and evolve over time.

I was thinking yesterday during some down time at the studio......about my lifelong retirement income plan. One part of the plan....did not....change. I knew that I would need a good amount of money to fund my retirement since I was self employed. I also knew that the only way I was going to get that money was by investing. Some of my peers got the money investing in real estate, some like me....in stocks.....some in other assets. I had the benefit of being raised in a RARE environment where my parent was an investor.....in a time....starting in the 1950's....when very few people were stock or fund investors.

The second part of the plan was the CONVERSION of some of that stock market money to a lifetime income as I entered retirement age. I retired from the "normal" working world...... early.....age 49.....and lived from personal assets from that point till age 70. I NOW will live for the rest of my lifetime on a guaranteed income from Social Security and a number of INCOME ANNUITIES. BUT....this was NOT my lifelong plan.

My ACTUAL plan was that when I was in the time span....about age 63 to age 70....I would put about $2Million into 30 year Treasuries and would live off that interest for the rest of my life. Through my entire life I ANTICIPATED that by the time I was in my 60's....I would be able to LOCK IN a 6% to 7.5% yield in 30 year Treasuries. That would give me a GUARANTEED income of $120,000 to $150,000 for life without having to touch the principle......in addition to Social Security.

As I got older and older and into my late 50's.....and than early 60's.....it became apparent that there was a good likelihood that the Treasury yield would NOT be there for me. So.....I had to use an alternative plan.....the income annuities. I would PREFER to have the income of the treasuries and the principle intact....but.....life and the markets imposed a different plan on me. The annuities are working well so.........ok....new plan is ALL GOOD.

The one thing I did NOT want to do is live for the BALANCE of my life worrying about the stock markets and trying to stretch RISK money over my......and my wife's entire....potential......life span. I UNDERSTAND very well the DIFFICULTY and DANGER of stretching........stock market money........ money over an entire life span. SO....I made the NECESSARY plan change and went with the income annuities.

The BENEFIT of either retirement income plan......treasuries or income annuities...... was the TOTAL DISCONNECT of my stock market money from my living needs. I am now able to treat my stock market money as RISK MONEY.....for life....with no concern for having to use that money.

EVERYONE that does not have a good pension will face the issue of living from personal assets in retirement....perhaps for a long time. Having a long term plan is an ABSOLUTE NECESSITY........as is FLEXIBILITY.

 

REALLY......oldmanram. If I can rake in my 10% or more average annual total return.....that is "my" normal. As long as I can do that.......I am VERY satisfied.

I WILL take the ENTERTAINMENT....of watching those trying to hit it big. AND....NO....I dont care if they choose to go big or go bust. ACTUALLY.....I pretty much know ahead of time how most people that take this approach will end up. Human behavior and the results of human behavior NEVER change.

I ALSO know that as people get married and have kids...thinking will change like it has for EVERY generation. They will become part of the BIG SILENT MAJORITY of......long term...... investors just like the generations before them.

 

The RUN UP in NVDA....continues. We are now at $703.57.....a gain today of $24.78.

I decided to add 30 shares of Nvidia when I heard the split news on May 21, 2021. I bought the shares at $599.81 near the daily close. They are now up 17.3% since that date. I considered using MARGIN to do the purchase....but....decided to just take some funds out of my SP500 Index fund for the buy. I had previously added to my Nvidia when I sold my SNOW and my TESLA shares.....as noted in prior posts in this thread.

I will sell enough of the shares to re-coup my initial investment the day or so after the split. Taking those funds out of the SP500 Fund has.....cost me....about 1.6% to date...that I would have gained on those funds if they had stayed in the SP500 Index.

Any gain that I have from this will stay invested in Nvidia shares.....for the longer term.

OK.......Emmett....sounds like trading? Perhaps....but I am willing to take a calculated risk once in a while.....in order to ADD to a long term holding.

 

QQQ.......well DAX.....I think it is a GREAT Index to hold....especially for younger people as part of a well rounded....long term....portfolio. I would not....personally.....use it as a........."one Index portfolio"......... like I would the SP500......but for some percentage of an account.....perhaps 10% to 25%.....a very NICE Index.

 

Doing the above post on Nvidia made me curious how my recent purchases from the SNOW and TESLA sales are doing.....so I looked. I made purchases of Nvidia on 5-12-21 and on 5-5-21. The purchase on 5-5-21 is NOW up by +20.07%. The purchase on 5-12-21 is NOW up by +25.24%.

NICE...to know....but...these are long term holdings. Better than starting out with a loss.....or.....a poke in the eye with a sharp stick.

With Nvidia....I am sure I will see MUCH up and down short term action over the long term.....but I PREFER to at least start out the short term with a gain......not that I have a choice.

 

I have NOT mentioned in a good while that when I do a buy or a sell....I do NOT try to time the market. Once I decide to sell something....I do it that day. I do NOT try to hold on for a bump up in price......or.....wait for a good exit point.

Same with buying....once I decide to buy something.....I do it that day....."at the market". I dont ever try to play "entry points" game. I simply go with the research that shows you are better off simply doing the buy or sell.....and....NOT trying to wait and time the market.

Anytime I sell something....I have something picked out ahead of time to reinvest those funds and keep them exposed to the market IMMEDIATELY.....either a current stock holding....or....a new stock holding.....or into my SP500 Index fund.

As a result.....I mentally....consider EVERY move that I make in my account a LATERAL MOVE......from one stock market investment to another.......with HOPEFULLY........a positive outcome over the long term.