The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Crypto does not produce anything. It is a currency and also a commodity.

    For years, every person who mentioned crypto was trying to get rich quickly. A few did. Most did not. This is the outcome of any high risk gambling activity.

    When I buy a REIT, it will have intrinsic value. It is oddly easy to calculate. In a reasonable market, the buildings will be worth a certain amount. I can buy a REIT with roughly 4B of property, 2.5B market cap, 1.5B debt, and a P/E of 6. 10 years from now, the property can reasonably be expected to double in value. That doubling will more than double the value of the shares, assuming no dilution. This is because of the debt leverage. As well as this, the REIT is be expected to yield 5~8% of the original money invested over the course of that 10 years.

    This is a case of a corporation producing value. The assets go up in value. They also make money and distribute it to the owners. This makes a well run REIT a prime example of an investment.

    Crypto has no inherent value due to it's lack of ability to produce anything. It's only worth what someone else will pay for it. In a sense, it's a game of hot potato. This isn't strictly true, anymore, now that crypto is being used for FX and even online transactions but this activity remains extremely small compared to the capital invested in the float of various crypto varieties.
     
  2. oldmanram

    oldmanram Active Member

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    Speaking of REIT's , SPG has had a phenomenal comeback since last Oct/Nov , over double,
    What REIT's haven't come back yet Tom ? See any bargain's out there ?
    DLR seems to be getting some traction , FINALLY
    Ventas/VTR is looking ............ better
    Any thought's ?
     
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  3. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    I have not done the research as to why, but I've read on multiple sources and heard from some people I respect that Ethereum has real world value, while the rest of Crypto basically does not.
     
  4. XxGoFish

    XxGoFish Member

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    The concept of decentralization. Blockchain. That is what good came from crypto. I am also very bearish on cryptocurrencies.

    Just look at what happened with the Colonial Pipeline hack situation. The hackers demanded their payment in BitCoin thinking it was safe, secure, anonymous. It has been reported that the FBI was able to recover all the money. That's a huge blow to crypto.

    Donald Trump also called BitCoin a scam. Regardless of your opinion of Trump. Him saying that definitely hurts also.
     
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  5. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    To be clear: I am bearish on the idea of me owning crypto.

    Beyond that, I am neither bullish or bearish on the future of crypto. I have watched other's crypto trajectories with interest.
     
  6. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    It takes me a few days to analyze a REIT. The REITs I look at have 50~200 properties. I need to estimate the value of 50% of those properties to consider my analysis valid, from an intrinsic value point of view. Usually, I can get closer to 80% but there are always properties in inventory that are difficult to evaluate without local knowledge.

    I don't do that for every REIT I become aware of. First, I try to analyze management. There are only a few management teams I believe to be great. Occasionally, I discover a team doing a great job that has previously been invisible to me. I love when that happens.

    To speak to your question, my market beating portfolio is doing fine but my numbers are increasingly approaching market gains. At some point, it will dip below market performance.

    I'm about to start expanding my holding of broad indices. To be direct, my drive to value companies has diminished and I no longer need to work hard at wealth acquisition. It's time for me to spend a bit less time in front of my screens and a bit more time at the coffee shop with my friends, complaining about the kids of today and discussing our latest surgeries.

    So, I have no insight into your question but there are a couple of REITs I believe have strong value.
     
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  7. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Totally agree.


    Also, I've been meaning to ask, do you have any sevens?
     
  8. XxGoFish

    XxGoFish Member

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    NRZ

    Is that considered a REIT?
     
  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    All in all a good day today....ended nicely. I was green of course....and beat the SP500 by 0.20%. Amazon was my big winner today being up by $66....or 2.07%.
     
  10. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    For those that like Cathey Wood here is a little article. I DO like her adherence to TECH and positive thinking. She seems to have a good ability to IGNORE all the NOISE.

    No inflation fears here: ARK's Wood says portfolio should triple in five years

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/no-inflation-fears-arks-wood-203153203.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Lower prices for growth stocks as a result of the inflation-driven selloff that began in February should mean that Ark Investment's portfolios should see a "more than tripling" over the next five years, star fund manager and firm founder Cathie Wood said in a webinar on Tuesday.

    Wood, who became the face of the outsized rally in technology stocks such as Zoom Video Communications Inc and electric vehicle maker Tesla Inc during the coronavirus pandemic last year, said that falling lumber and copper prices signal that the market is "beginning to see signs that the risks are overblown” from inflation.

    Lumber prices are down approximately 30% from their May 7 highs, while copper prices are down nearly 6% over the same time.

    "We know it's been a difficult time in the market for innovation strategies," she said. As a result, Wood has moved into what she called "opportunistic" investment plays such as special-purpose acquisition companies that have badly underperformed the benchmark S&P 500.

    Inflation fears have weighed heavily on growth stocks since the beginning of the year, prompting investors to rotate into so-called value stocks in sectors such as energy and financials that benefit from rising prices. The Russell 1000 Value index is up nearly 18% for the year to date, while the Russell 1000 Growth index is up nearly 7% over the same time.

    Wood, whose ARK Innovation ETF was the top-performing actively managed U.S. equity fund tracked by Morningstar last year, has seen her performance stagnate along with the slowdown in growth stocks. Her flagship fund is down nearly 28% from its early February high.

    The fund rose 0.1% in afternoon trading on Tuesday.

    The market focus on Wood's portfolio has largely been replaced this year by an emphasis on so-called meme stocks like AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc and GameStop Corp which have skyrocketed more than 1,000% since the start of January thanks to individual investors who frequent social media sites like Reddit.

    When asked, Wood said ARK does not search Reddit for stock ideas but does monitor it for the "great conversation" about the companies the firm holds.""

    MY COMMENT

    NICE to have some STELLAR company on my view of inflation NOT being an issue. ALSO on the growth stock side of things....although....my emphasis is on the BIG CAP growth monsters.

    NO.....I am not recommending her fund....it is probably a little bit too volatile for most people....perhaps as a small holding.

    It will take a while for the general investor universe to get over the inflation fear mongering......but.....they will move on....over time.
     
  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Here is a very interesting article. It details the taxes paid....or rather not paid....by various billionaires. It is interesting to see some of the people that constantly CLAMOR for higher taxes....paying little to ZERO on their own part. People like the number one advocate for higher taxes on the rich....Warren Buffett. Also included....Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, Michael Bloomberg. Bill Gates, Mark Zuckerberg, etc.. I am just going to put a link up since this is a long analysis. It is very well written and very understandable. Apparently they were able to get hold of RAW TAX data from the IRS....somehow.

    The Secret IRS Files: Trove of Never-Before-Seen Records Reveal How the Wealthiest Avoid Income Tax

    https://www.propublica.org/article/...ds-reveal-how-the-wealthiest-avoid-income-tax

    MY COMMENT

    Very interesting to see how these people actually ACT versus the talk they do for public consumption.

    As to the release of this information from the IRS....somehow........it makes me wonder since this information and this article makes the case for the current proposal for higher income taxes and the elimination of the step basis on death. I dont trust the timing of the release of this information. It is not just a RANDOM IRS employee releasing this stuff....this sort of tax information on these sorts of individuals is HIGHLY PROTECTED by the IRS. This is high level insider information. There is way more behind this release of information than meets the eye. BUT....we will never know why, how, or who released or authorized the release of this information. I would not even be surprised if the actual people mentioned in the article.....engineered the release of their own tax info......for their own agenda.
     
    #6131 WXYZ, Jun 8, 2021
    Last edited: Jun 8, 2021
  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Regarding the above......release......that is supposedly being investigated by the IRS. Here is a typical article....you can see how this information is IMMEDIATELY being used to further the current tax bill that is being discussed. AGAIN....I would not be surprised in the least considering that the people include Buffett, Gates, Zuckerberg, etc, etc.......if this information was released by the very people in the release....or at least a big part of them.

    Richest 25 Americans reportedly paid ‘true tax rate’ of 3.4% as wealth rocketed

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/richest-25-americans-reportedly-paid-185255632.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "The 25 richest Americans including Jeff Bezos, Warren Buffett and Elon Musk paid a “true tax rate” of just 3.4% between 2014 and 2018, according to an investigation by ProPublica, despite their collective net worth rising by more than $400bn in the same period.

    The report by the non-profit news organization exposes the US tax system as income and wealth inequality continues to widen.

    ProPublica used Internal Revenue Service data to dive into the tax returns of some of America’s wealthiest and most prominent people. It found that in 2007 Bezos, the founder of Amazon and already a billionaire, paid no federal taxes. In 2011, when he had a net worth of $18bn, he was again able to pay no federal taxes – and even received a $4,000 tax credit for his children.

    Last year, Bezos’s net worth topped $200bn.

    ProPublica created what it called a “true tax rate” for the wealthiest 25 Americans by comparing federal income tax paid between 2014 and 2018 to how their net worth increased on Forbes’ well-regarded rich list over the same period.

    “The results are stark,” ProPublica wrote. “According to Forbes, those 25 people saw their worth rise a collective $401bn from 2014 to 2018.

    “They paid a total of $13.6bn in federal income taxes in those five years, the IRS data shows. That’s a staggering sum, but it amounts to a true tax rate of only 3.4%.”

    By contrast, the median American household paid 14% in federal taxes, ProPublica reported. The top income tax rate is 37% on incomes over $523,600 for single filers, having been reduced from 39.6% under Donald Trump.

    ProPublica found that Buffett, founder of the investment firm Berkshire Hathaway, paid $23.7m in taxes from 2014 to 2018, on a total reported income of $125m. But Buffett’s wealth grew by $24.3bn, meaning he had a “true tax rate” of 0.1%.

    Bezos’s wealth grew by $99bn over the four-year period, but he paid a true tax rate of 0.98%, according to ProPublica. Musk and Michael Bloomberg paid 3.27% and 1.3% respectively.

    The billionaires are not accused of illegal activity. But the rates expose the failures of America’s tax laws to levy increases in wealth derived from assets in the way wages – the prime source of income for most Americans – are taxed.

    “America’s billionaires avail themselves of tax-avoidance strategies beyond the reach of ordinary people,” ProPublica reported. “Their wealth derives from the skyrocketing value of their assets, like stock and property. Those gains are not defined by US laws as taxable income unless and until the billionaires sell.”

    ProPublica did not not disclose how it obtained the IRS information. It said reporters spent months analyzing the data and would release more reports.

    Bezos, the richest person in the world, “declined to receive questions”, ProPublica said.

    Musk, who Forbes estimates is worth $151bn, first replied to a query “with a lone punctuation mark: ‘?’”, ProPublica said, adding that he did not reply to further queries.

    Bloomberg, who according to Forbes has a net worth of $59bn, told ProPublica he paid the taxes he owed. A spokesman cited the billionaire’s philanthropic giving. “Taken together, what Mike gives to charity and pays in taxes amounts to approximately 75% of his annual income,” the spokesman said.

    ProPublica said Buffett defended his practices in an email.

    “I continue to believe that the tax code should be changed substantially,” Buffett told ProPublica. He said that “huge dynastic wealth is not desirable for our society”.

    Buffett, worth $96bn, has said 99% of his wealth will go to philanthropy “during my lifetime or at death”. In 2020 he donated about $2.9bn in Berkshire Hathaway stock to five charities, CNBC reported.

    “I believe the money will be of more use to society if disbursed philanthropically than if it is used to slightly reduce an ever-increasing US debt,” Buffett said.

    Joe Biden has proposed raising the top rate of income tax and increasing capital gains tax, though that would likely have little effect on the true tax rate paid by billionaires. Senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders have pushed a “wealth tax” that would introduce a 3% tax on the net worth of the ultra rich. There seems little hope it will pass into law.

    At least some of America’s richest people want to better tax wealth. Patriotic Millionaires, a group campaigning to increase taxes on the rich, said the ProPublica report demonstrated “how the richest 400 Americans end up owning more wealth than the bottom 150 million Americans combined”.


    “The ultra-wealthy get to pick and choose when and how they’re taxed,” Patriotic Millionaires said. “This is exactly why we need a strong, unavoidable wealth tax now.”"

    MY COMMENT

    As to the BOLD above......BINGO. This is instant conspiracy theory material. AND....the release will NEVER be explained. The timing is WAY TOO CRITICAL to be coincidence. BUT....there are probably...layers, and layers, and layers, and layers...behind this release and story. AND....us little people......will NEVER have a clue.
     
  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    WELL.....we are open today....actually have been for over an hour. during that time we saw the USUAL market action that we are seeing lately. Stocks and funds trying to find direction and lingering in the range where we have been for a while now. This is......EXACTLY....what you would expect from a market that is disconnected from anything longer than a day or two. At the moment....nothing matters.....but the extreme short term news and drama. A.....PHASE.....that the markets are going through at the moment. There is nothing on the horizan....no catalyst......to move at the moment........no leadership.

    I did look a few minutes ago and I am starting out the way I have recently....a small gain. BUT....meaningless since we have the day ahead of us and it is likely that stocks will bounce up and down......green/red....through the day.

    I did notice that the yield on the Ten Year Treasury was down at 1.499% at the moment. WOW....that is a low yield especially in the current environment.
     
  14. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Ok after posting that I.....immediately....see this little article.

    Stock market news live updates: Stocks struggle for direction, Treasury yields sink

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-june-9-2021-221633843-223050770.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Stocks traded mixed on Wednesday as investors considered more mixed data on the U.S. economic recovery and a resurgence in the social media-fueled "meme stocks."

    The S&P 500 ticked higher, coming within points of its all-time high, with traders searching for new catalysts to send the broader market higher. The Dow hugged the flat line, while the Nasdaq advanced. Worries over heightened inflation lingered, and concerns over supply-side shortages were fanned further after new data on Tuesday showed job openings and the voluntary quit rate each surged to a record high in April.

    The labor markets are still struggling to get out of first gear as it relates to the supply of the workforce,” ManpowerGroup CEO Jonas Prising told Yahoo Finance. “There are childcare concerns, there are still lingering healthcare concerns, and then there are support mechanisms that are clearly also enabling people to stay home … I think those three factors are going to ease in importance in the coming months.”

    Meanwhile, meme stocks got another boost Wednesday, with the social media-fueled rally extending to new stocks including fast food chain Wendy's (WEN), e-commerce company Wish (WISH) health firm Clover Health (CLOV). Shares of AMC Entertainment (AMC), which has more than doubled so far in June, gave back some gains Wednesday morning as online traders pivoted to new targets.

    It’s a sign that people have a bit more free time than they're used to having, and that cash flow is good and people feel very confident,” Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told Yahoo Finance of the renewed interest in the meme stocks this month. “Usually when we go through a downturn, people don't have this kind of confidence this early in the recovery about their jobs, about their wealth to take these kind of risks.”

    GameStop (GME), the original poster child of the Reddit-fueled trading frenzy, is poised to report first-quarter earnings results on Wednesday. The company is expected to report a fourth loss in five quarters, though quarterly revenue likely grew on a year-over-year basis for the first time in nearly three years. Shares were little changed during the pre-market session.

    But as for the broader market, Kleintop added he believes the cyclical and value rotation seen so far this year still has room to run, and that certain international equities may have more upside in the near term relative to U.S. stocks. So far in June, the cyclical energy sector has outperformed in the S&P 500 with a gain of 7% for the month-to-date. And small cap stocks, which tend to lead during recoveries, have outperformed large caps, with the Russell 2000 up 3.3% versus the S&P 500's 0.6% gain through Tuesday's close.

    "I think you still have to stick with the recovery stocks. I know we've seen a lot more momentum to areas like financials and energy that are tied to the rise in inflation," he said. "But there are a lot of cyclically-oriented companies that aren’t. Industrials, for example, continue to do very well in this environment. And I think that's the rotation we're looking for."

    "I'd note that Europe hasn't peaked yet in terms of its growth momentum," Kleintop added. "The U.S. probably has here this quarter. China did late last year. So we've still got the peak here in terms of momentum for growth for Europe coming later this year. I think that's where you want to focus."

    10:44 a.m. ET: Wholesales inventories jumped in April as businesses look to meet soaring demand
    Wholesale inventories jumped at a 0.8% month-on-month clip in April, the Commerce Department said Wednesday, with this metric rising for a ninth straight month as businesses looked to stock up to meet surging consumer demand during the recovery.

    The increase was unrevised from the Commerce Department's estimated print on wholesale inventories last month. The increase came following a 1.1% rise in March. Wholesale inventories were up by 5.2% in April over last year, though the surge came in part off of last year's pandemic-depressed level.

    9:31 a.m. ET: Stocks open mixed, Treasury yields sink
    The three major indexes were mixed Wednesday morning as traders sought new catalysts for risk assets. The S&P 500 opened higher by about 0.2%, bringing it within 1 point of its record high. The Dow was roughly unchanged, while the Nasdaq outperformed with a rise of 0.5% as technology stocks advanced.

    Treasury yields were lower across the curve as concerns over higher rates moderated somewhat among investors. The benchmark 10-year yield slid by more than 5 basis points to below 1.5%, bringing its one-month decline to about 20 basis points. "

    MY COMMENT

    YES.....re-opening happens in spurts and starts. It is easy to simply shut something down....like the economy. It is harder to get it back open....after you have disrupted the entire......economic and employment..... system. Looks like the treasury yields are not showing concern over inflation. In fact they are signaling economic Weakness.

    I suspect....it will take......at least.......12 months to get the economy re-opened in terms of employment. AND....as a result of the DISRUPTION of the employment system the economy and business is going to be very ERRATIC and......generally....OUT OF WACK. Employees and potential employees....are going to be playing a game of musical chairs for a while.....once they actually decide to work again. As a former business owner.....I am so glad to NOT be in the business world at this moment.

    This is what happens when you.....SCREW WITH.......MOTHER ECONOMY.
     
  15. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    This summer is going to be RIPE for a little correction....although if I had to bet my life on it.....I would say .....no correction. Rather....we will see the same lingering we are seeing right now. I hit an all time high in my primary account a day ago.....but....like the markets my account balance has been RANGE BOUND lately. this little article reflects my....current....market view.

    Don't expect a 'hot vax summer' for stocks: strategist

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dont-expect-a-hot-vax-summer-for-stocks-strategist-165611042.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Stocks are grinding higher, with the S&P 500 (^GSPC) approaching record highs and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) at the highest level in one month. But one Wall Street strategist is warning investors that the "hot vax summer" for stocks "might feel a little cold and rocky."

    Callie Cox, senior investment strategist at Ally Invest, explained on Yahoo Finance Live that the summer is a historically weak period for stocks. Volume typically trails off as investors leave the office and hit the roads.

    "[W]e could see lower volume in the stock market. And lower volume typically leads to a wandering market, especially with the environment we're in, where investors are kind of looking around the corner and saying, 'what's next? What's the ominous thing on the outlook?' And they're feeling a little more hesitant about putting their money in stocks," she said.

    This doesn't preclude market strength or necessarily mean we'll see weakness this summer. Cox pointed out that since 1990, the S&P 500 has risen an average of 0.9% between Memorial Day and Labor Day. But that compares to an average of 3.6% for the months before Memorial Day and 4.2% for the months after Labor Day.

    "Stocks have bucked the trend recently, though, with five straight summers of gains (including the S&P 500’s 16% gains last summer). And the market’s path of least resistance is higher," she said.

    [​IMG]
    The summer slowdown
    Earlier this year, Cox told Yahoo Finance that year two of a new bull market typically sees more muted returns than those of the first year, which tend to be higher.

    Despite the general market strength, investors should still exercise caution. In a separate statement to Yahoo Finance, she writes, "In a (relatively) low-volume environment, bad news tends to hit a hit harder, and small shifts in buying or selling could lead to noticeable market swings. Investors are extra skittish these days, too. We can tell the market’s mindset has changed from 'What could go right?' to 'What could go wrong?,' and that’s led to quick selling on surprise headlines."

    It's also possible that under the market's hood, we could see more painful rotation even as the major indices simply wander sideways. "We’ve seen some big sell-offs in certain swaths of the market, though. That could be a stealth correction. If stocks slip, it’s likely that buyers will keep the market afloat. We’ve gone a long time without a significant drop, but there’s just too much interest in stocks at the moment," Cox wrote.

    Keith Bliss, Capital2Markets president, has a slightly more bullish take on U.S. stocks. In a statement to Yahoo Finance, he said, "[W]e still see the longer term bias for equities to be upward. Currently, the major averages are modestly oversold even while some of the internal indicators around breadth remain somewhat healthy. Monetary authorities remain accommodating, interest rates remain low, economies are continuing to recover, and the job market is robust."

    Investors still looking to play the market this summer should "dig for treasure," said Cox. "Stocks rarely fall across the board, and we’ve seen growth stocks and high-flyers get hit unusually hard recently. View pullbacks as opportunities to get stocks on sale, and be intentional about where you put your money. We like defensive sectors like consumer staples and utilities in a flat market. Growth stocks are starting to look more attractive, especially if the market is overreacting to inflation fears."

    And it doesn't hurt to stash some cash as well. "Cash gets a bad rap these days, but it helps investors stay agile in a pullback. In a time when markets move faster than ever, it helps to always keep some cash on hand. We all learned that lesson in the great reversal of 2020," she said.

    Cash also provides an opportunity to get long stocks on any pullbacks.

    "In times when volume is lower and liquidity is lower, it is smart to prepare for a pullback and not get lulled into a false sense of security. And remember that pullbacks are opportunities. They can feel scary in the moment, but they can also lead to lower prices, especially if you're looking over a longer time frame," Cox said. "It's a really good chance to jump into those stocks you really believe in, especially if you're willing to give it a few years."

    Bliss is also looking to buy on weakness over the short term. "We would be poised to nibble around the margins for any weakness through July and August to be well positioned for a likely acceleration after Labor Day ... [D]espite some inflation (which may be transitory) and some modest political risk, the bias and the trend is higher for equities.""

    MY COMMENT

    At least the markets are......NOT INSANE.....like the housing market. I know it sounds weird....but at this moment.....I think the lingering market we are experiencing is a better indicator of a BOOMING future.......6-24 months.....than if we were in a crazy rally at the moment. We seem to be living in REALITY......or at least the markets are.......they reflect the turmoil and disruptions of the re-opening.

    As to the YOLO movement and the MEME stock movement...much of that will dissipate as people have to go back and.....actually.....work in a job. Sooner or later the investment trend of buying......TRASH....will end and quality and earnings and other FUNDAMENTALS will.......as always....win out for the longer term.
     
  16. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    A bit more on the Ten Year Treasury in the little article below......with a message for longer term investors.

    Treasury Yields Slip Below 1.5% Ahead of Auction, Inflation Data

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...r-yield-falls-below-1-5-to-lowest-since-may-7

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "The 10-year Treasury yield fell below 1.5% for the first time in a month while the rate on the U.S. long bond dropped to a level unseen since early March, suggesting that the Federal Reserve’s assurances that elevated inflation is probably temporary are gaining acceptance from investors.

    The 10-year yield declined as much as 6.3 basis points to 1.471%, which is below closing levels since March, and remains near that level, even as dealers prepared to underwrite an auction of $38 billion of the notes Wednesday afternoon. The 30-year bond’s yield touched 2.148%, last seen March 1. The moves come a day before the release of U.S. consumer price data for May; the April increase was the biggest since 2009.

    [​IMG]
    There was no clear catalyst for the latest move lower, suggesting a potential shift by the market’s large short base ahead of the U.S. data and a European Central Bank meeting Thursday. Confidence in predictions of an inflationary economic recovery from the pandemic has waned, though, following two months of weaker-than-forecast U.S. job creation data.

    There maybe some view in the marketplace that the Fed could be right in terms of transitory inflation,” said Larry Milstein, senior managing director and head of government debt trading at R.W. Pressprich & Co. “More investors seem to be getting on that band wagon. We also still haven’t seen the labor picture improve as much as everybody was anticipating. That’s supporting the Treasury market.”

    Positioning for higher yields based on expectations for an inflationary economic recovery has been unprofitable over the past two months. The 10-year note’s yield peaked at about 1.77% in March and fell as low as 1.46% on May 7 after the release of of the April employment data.

    The drop in yields also suggests investors expect that any move by the U.S. central bank toward tapering its asset purchases at its policy meeting next week will be incremental, even if consumer price inflation accelerates further in May, as economists expect.

    I don’t think even a slightly stronger number changes the narrative too much for the June Fed meeting, which is one where they will start to talk about talking about tapering,” wrote NatWest Markets strategist John Briggs in a note this week about the upcoming data.

    The drop in yields is not confined to the U.S., with those in Germany the most negative in a month.

    “Rates markets appear remarkably robust,” said ING strategists including Antoine Bouvet. “It is clear that the market is pricing in the extension of the ECB’s accelerated asset purchase pace as a base case.” The ECB’s pandemic bond-buying program targets around 20 billion euros ($24 billion) a week."

    MY COMMENT

    YES......a good indicator that investors need to have......THE GUTS.....to simply HOLD through all the blather and GARBAGE that is out there day after day. As I have said a few times.....REMEMBER all the doom and gloom about the Ten Year yield a few months ago? AND...we are STILL in the midst of the INFLATION.....bogeyman......phase. At the same time we have countries....significant countries in the EU.....like Germany that have NEGATIVE rates. Can you say.....DEFLATIONARY ENVIRONMENT?

    Before this pandemic we had been in a deflationary environment.....WORLD WIDE.....for at least 10 years. I dont see any......SUBSTANTIAL or SIGNIFICANT......improvement to the world economy now or in the near future. It is likely that the same world economy we had before the pandemic WILL be in place.....perhaps even WORSE.....after the pandemic.

    SO.....I will simply HOLD through the short term as usual.......and....focus on the LONG TERM.......regardless of whatever the FAD OF THE MOMENT happens to be sweeping the markets.

    YES.....I continue to be FULLY invested for the long term as usual.
     
  17. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    The U.S. consumer price index for May is set to be released Thursday. Economists are expecting the CPI to rise 4.7% from a year earlier.

    YES.....tomorrow is the.....BIG DAY. This is it....here it comes.......the BIG KAHUNA. Investors are BRACING. Dont let go of the rail.

    WELL......DUH......whatever the JUMP is from a year ago......is it going to really be any sort of a BIG shock? Does anyone remember what was going on a year ago? Well.....we simply shut down the entire economy and the country was at the PEAK of pandemic fear. NOT a big surprise that.......now.....with the pandemic under control and the economy re-opening in many of the states around the country....that we are going to see a jump in the consumer price index compared to a year ago.
     
  18. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I dont see this being talked about much....but......the NVIDIA shareholders HAVE approved the stock split. SO.....things will go as reported for the split. It will happen AFTER the market close on July 19......with the new shares trading when the market opens on July 20.

    HERE is the other recent news that we have seen on Nvidia that has....probably....but who knows....been impacting he stock over the past day or two.

    Nvidia’s acquisition of Arm could reportedly be delayed by Chinese regulators

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/08/nvi...-set-to-be-delayed-by-chinese-regulators.html
     
  19. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    The summer BOREDOM continues in the markets. Another.....tiny....red day. BUT....beat the SP500 by 0.06%.

    Have to run....will post later.
     
  20. duckleberry_fin

    duckleberry_fin New Member

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    I've been lurking for a few years and eventually made an account to maybe comment on posts and finally decided "why not" and am going to dip my toe into this particular water. For the record, I'm not a crypto speculator although I do own a tiny amount of Bitcoin, Ethereum and Cardano - mostly because having a tiny amount of skin in the game makes the constant inundation of crypto news a bit more palatable (to me).

    I don't think anyone can make a legitimate case that Bitcoin has any intrinsic utility. As a proof of concept, Bitcoin is amazing. BUT, like concept cars, its utility in the real world is essentially zero EVEN IF many of the features included in the concept do eventually get adopted by cryptos with real world utility (many of the concepts in concept cars also go on to be features in real usable cars too).

    Ethereum is, in my opinion, a "crypto" with real world utility. My reasoning is as follows: Ethereum is first-and-foremost a platform on which transactions can be processed. Using a (imperfect) metaphor - you can liken the Ethereum network to a fancy digital vending machine. With a normal vending machine, you insert coins, press a button and automatically the good you selected is dispensed to you. That's essentially what happens with smart contracts on the Ethereum network. The only difference is whereas a vending machine typically accepts the legal currency of the jurisdiction the vending machine is in, the Ethereum-digital-vending-machine only accepts ETH tokens. So, insofar as people around the world prefer to transact through the use of the Ethereum-digital-vending-machine, ETH has real world utility. Similarly, if a real world vending machine company decided to make and distribute their own special tokens and structured their machines so that they only accepted their special tokens, those special tokens have utility insofar as people want to use that specific brand of vending machines.

    The obvious (in my opinion) downside to the above ETH/Ethereum utility argument is "what happens if 1,000 more vending machine companies spring into existence and offer better/cheaper/more meme-able access to their special tokens?" This inherent lack of "moat" is why I personally still consider ethereum a speculative asset (commodity? currency? who knows) more than an investment.
     

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