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The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Nice comment Tom.....especially the part about your mom. I learned to invest from my mom. She was a very early investor having investments in mutual funds in the 1950's and moving into individual stocks in the early 1960's. At that time there were very very few people in the USA that held either mutual funds or stocks. There were no IRA acccounts, no 401K, or any other retirement vehicles. It was the era of traditional pensions, so the vast majority.......probably about 95% of the population......had ZERO money in mutual funds of stocks. My grandfather had a stock portfolio from at least the 1940's till his death in the early 1960's. At the time of his death the portfolio was worth about $75,000. BIG CAP, DIVIDEND, AMERICAN, companies like Phillip Morris, Colgate, Proctor&Gamble, Coke, etc, etc, etc. That is how and why my mom had investing experience....... from him and working in some of his business offices as a teen and college student in the summers. My mom grew up in a business family in a small town since my grandfather and his family owned the local savings and loan and a real estate business and an abstract company. But it was a small town, in an isolated area of the Southwest. So they were well to do in their town but not by the standards of a bigger place.

    Here is some info from INVESTOPEDIA about being an investor in the 1950's......like my mom and grandfather.......and up to the 1970's. VERY DIFFERENT than today. I remember those times very well.

    "Investing in the 1950s

    According to the first share owner census undertaken by the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in 1952, only 6.5 million Americans owned common stock (about 4.2% of the U.S. population). With a generation scarred by the market crash of 1929 and the Great Depression of the 1930s, most people in the 1950s stayed away from stocks. In fact, it was only in 1954 that the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) surpassed its 1929 peak, a full 25 years after the crash.


    The process of investing was also more time consuming and expensive in the 1950s than it is now. Thanks to the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933, which prohibited commercial banks from doing business on Wall Street, stock brokerages were independent entities.

    Fixed commissions
    were the norm, and limited competition meant that these commissions were quite high and non-negotiable. The limitations of technology in those days meant that the execution of stock trades, from initial contact between an investor and a broker, to the time the trade ticket was created and executed, took a considerable amount of time.

    Investment choices in the 1950s were also quite limited. The great mutual fund boom was still years away, and the concept of overseas investing was non-existent. Active stock prices were also somewhat difficult to obtain; an investor who wanted a current price quotation on a stock had few alternatives but to get in touch with a stockbroker.

    Although thin trading volumes reflected the relative novelty of stock investing at the time, things were already beginning to change by the mid-1950s. 1953 marked the last year in which daily trading volumes on the NYSE were below one million shares. In 1954, the NYSE announced its monthly investment plan program, which allowed investors to invest as little as $40 per month. This development was the precursor to the monthly investment programs that were marketed by most mutual funds years later, which in turn led to the widespread adoption of stock investing among the U.S. population in the 1970s and 1980s.

    Investing in the 1970s

    The process of change, as far as investing was concerned, accelerated in the 1970s, although the U.S.stock market meandered through this decade of stagflation. The DJIA, which was just above 800 at the start of the 1970s, had only advanced to about 839 by the end of the decade, an overall gain of 5% over this 10-year period. (For details see, Stagflation, 1970s Style.)

    However, mutual funds were growing in popularity, following the creation of individual retirement accounts (IRA) by the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA) of 1974, as well as the introduction of the first index fund in 1976. In 1974, trading hours on the NYSE were extended by 30 minutes to accommodate the growth of the market. (For further reading on the ERISA, see our special feature on Individual Retirement Accounts.)

    Perhaps the biggest change for investors this decade was the increasing settlement of securities trades electronically, rather than in physical form. The Central Certificate Service, which was introduced in 1968 to handle surging trading volumes, was replaced by the Depository Trust Company in 1973. This meant that, rather than physical stock certificates, investors were now more likely to have their stocks held in electronic form at a central depository.

    In 1971, Merrill Lynch became the first member organization of the NYSE to list its shares on the exchange. In 1975, in a landmark development, the Securities and Exchange Commission banned fixed minimum commission rates, which had hitherto been a cornerstone of U.S. securities markets and exchanges throughout the world. (For more on the SEC, see Securities And Exchange Commission: Policing The Securities Market.)

    These changes, coupled with the dramatic improvement in trade processing and settlement due to the increasing use of automation and technology, laid the foundation for significantly higher trading volume and the increasing popularity of stock investing in the years ahead. In 1982, daily trading volume on the NYSE reached 100 million for the first time. By 1990, the NYSE census revealed that more than 51 million Americans owned stocks - more than 20% of the U.S. population.

    MY COMMENT

    AMAZING and SHOCKING that by 1990 the percentage of the US population that owned stocks was STILL only about 20%. We are in a very different world now. Congratulations Tom, to your mom. A very smart lady. With the internet now and the general attitudes of people, there is little to no appreciation of the past. Those of us that lived through it have a very broad understanding of things that younger people do NOT appreciate when it comes to investing and life in general. BUT.....that is probably the norm through all of human history.
     
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  2. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I LOVE the headline and story below. Gee.......NO ONE saw this coming. Yeah right......EXCEPT all of us that did see it coming and expected another NICE year for our investments. And, for those of us that are LONG TERM INVESTORS, we know that it is impossible to predict this sort of short term......."stuff"......to be polite. Not all the MORONS and IDIOTS that make a living off media clicks and ratings........well......they make a living from sensationalism, financial sensationalism. As I have said often in this thread. Avoid anything from these IDIOTS at all costs. This sort of media GARBAGE is hazardous to your financial health.

    The stock market keeps setting new highs in a rally no one saw coming

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...rally-no-one-saw-coming/ar-AAJQLEP?li=BBnb7Kz

    (BOLD represents my opinion of IDIOCY on the part of the financial media world)

    "Faced with an array of daunting headwinds and coming off a tough year, Wall Street took a dim view of stocks in 2019. As a result, many major analysts missed one of the best years of this history-making bull market that continues to make new highs.

    Of the 17 forecasters that CNBC tracks for S&P 500 price, just three have targets that are above where the broad-market index traded Monday. The median 3,000 target is 2.7% below mid-day levels with still nearly two months left to the year.

    While the market’s path is always unknown and could come back down before the calendar turns to 2020, the year looks like an opportunity lost for those who bought into the pessimism. The S&P 500 continues to climb to new highs, while its sister index, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, also set a new high-water mark Monday.

    The Dow is approaching an 18% gain for the year while the S&P 500 has gained close to 23% and even the small-cap Russell 2000 is ahead more than 18%.

    “I don’t think you can blame people for being a bit cautious or skeptical,” said Sam Stovall, a chief investment strategist at CFRA Research. “If anything, earnings growth growth for this year has come down, and earnings expectations for next year have come down.”

    Indeed, the S&P 500 is in the midst of an earnings recession that is on track to show the third consecutive quarter for negative year-over-year growth. Despite a 76% beat rate compared to expectations, earnings are still projected to a show a 2.7% decline in the third quarter, according to FactSet.

    But it’s been more than that this year.

    A range of opinions

    Wall Street has been spooked by concerns over a potential recession, the U.S.-China tariffs and multiple geopolitical concerns such as how Brexit will turn out.

    Still, the market keeps going higher and defying the naysayers. The “most hated bull market in history” observation so often repeated on Wall Street may have become the worst cliche in bull market history as the averages continue to push into new record territory.

    You do wonder what is causing the market to go higher. One [factor] is that the lack of alternatives continues,” Stovall said, citing the “TINA” belief that There Is No Alternative to U.S. stocks.

    Stovall is among the many Wall Streeters who underestimated the market’s strength. He put a 2,975 target on the market, but was by far not the most pessimistic. UBS is the lowest on the Street with a 2,550 price target while Morgan Stanley has been consistently bearish with its 2,750 estimate.

    In fact, Morgan Stanley is not only bearish on 2019 but believes low returns will continue for the next decade due to high valuations. Andrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at the firm, said returns will be “challenging” considering the set-up from the trailing price-to-earnings ratio.

    On the other side, though, are strategists including Piper Jaffray’s Craig Johnson, who has been one of Wall Street’s biggest bulls for years and holds a 3,125 target for the S&P 500. Though directionally right about the market’s moves, Johnson said “we weren’t perfect all along” in terms of timing, and he understands the skepticism about valuation.

    “I think a lot of investors are struggling with valuation. The way this market has moved up, stocks have been pretty darn expensive,” Johnson said. “A lot of investors got caught off guard in Q4 last year. Those memories are still fresh in their minds about the big, dramatic selloff which wiped out a lot of bonuses for people last year. There’s that psychological impediment.”

    Money to the mattresses

    The fourth-quarter sell-off last year was fueled by weakening economic growth coupled with a Federal Reserve that seemed tone-deaf to what was happening, Two verbal miscues from Fed Chair Jerome Powell that pointed to tighter policy ahead fueled the belief that a year when the market fell 6.2% could bleed over into 2019.

    Investors reacted by heading for cover.

    Money market fund balances have surged this year to $3.5 trillion, the highest in a decade and up 23.7% year to date. Retail investors alone have pushed $324 billion into money markets in 2019, a 32% jump.

    Sentiment has been turning of late, though, if not among the big Wall Street houses then at least with the mom-and-pop crowd that has been cheered by three Fed rate cuts and a macro scenario that no longer looks as gloomy as it did a few months ago. Bullishness, or the belief that the market will be higher in six months, was at a 12-week high of 35.6% in the most recent American Association of Individual Investors survey, while the bears fell to 28.3%.

    Among professional investors, though, skepticism remains high.

    The put-call ratio, a measure of sentiment among options traders, has remained above 1 since mid-September, a contrarian indicator that the market could be headed higher on strongly negative sentiment.

    “There’s worry that we are going to be disappointed by the trade issue, economic data and earnings,” said Quincy Krosby, a chief market strategist at Prudential Financial. “Nothing stays the same forever. We’ve started to see an easing in all of the above. It doesn’t mean that’s the perfect scenario for the market, but it is perfect enough to get volume and breadth beginning to pick up.”

    For the bulls, one of the big factors could simply be that the signs of a recession that had shot up during the summer have been tamed.

    The bond curve inversion, where shorter-dated yields were higher than their longer-term counterparts, has since reverted.
    Inversions have preceded each of the last seven recessions, but there’s some sentiment that this time could be different due to unusual factors playing out in the bond market, even though fourth-quarter GDP growth looks like it will struggle to top 1%.

    In any event, lack of a recession threat would be one huge load lifted from a market that has struggled to inspire confidence all year.

    “The tug-of-war has not died down. There are those who still see that there is a recession looming and the market is oblivious to that,” Krosby said. “The fact of the matter is the market is suggesting there is not a recession that’s imminent, that the market was poised for recession for too long.”"

    MY COMMENT

    Among professional investors, though, skepticism remains high.

    The bond curve inversion, where shorter-dated yields were higher than their longer-term counterparts, has since reverted.

    the signs of a recession that had shot up during the summer have been tamed.

    many major analysts missed one of the best years of this history-making bull market that continues to make new highs.

    And on, and on, and on, BLAH, BLAH, BLAH. NO SH*T. I will tell you why stocks are UP, because the economy is strong, Jobs are strong, wages are strong, business is strong, the tax hikes helped everyone and the economy as a whole, the corporate tax cuts CONTINUE to drive business results higher and higher, etc, etc, etc. Those that let wishful thinking based on their personal politics and and short term media thinking are DOOMED to complete failure. Any that follow these MORONS and invest in and out of the markets accordingly are DOOMED to complete failure.

    JUST to rub a little more salt into their wounds, here is where we are at the moment:

    DOW year to date +17.72%

    SP500 year to date +22.79%

    WOW.......REALLY BIG WOW.....the Sp500 is up nearly 23% year to date. With a little help from Santa we could hit a +30% year on the SP500. And IMAGINE THAT........no one, yes no one, saw it coming. Yeah right......




     
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  3. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Here are TomB's predictions:

    2018 Predicted: small market correction, perhaps 5~10% shrinkage. Actual: Huge gains and the third best year of my 35 year investing career.

    2019 Predicted: not much room for growth, perhaps plateau while we wait for a correction. Actual: Higher gains than 2018, so far.


    I have not actioned my predictions for decades. I've learned that I cannot predict the markets. I've learned that others cannot predict the markets, either. The best approach is clear: stay in the market and let time advance our financial position.

    Predictions, for me, are just a point of amusement. Perhaps most amusing of all is how wrong I am so frequently.
     
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  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    BOEING stock is on a RUN this week. AS ARE the markets in general. We are hitting ALL TIME HIGHS in the primary general market averages:

    Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record levels after report China, U.S. agree to cancel tariffs in stages

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/s...-agree-to-cancel-tariffs-in-stages-2019-11-07

    MY COMMENT

    EVERYTHING is in place for a major year end rally. I dont see much that can screw things up. ALTHOUGH.......it is the things you cant see that kill you in the short term. When I make these sort of short term statements and predictions.......keep in mind......it is for fun. I certainly DO NOT want others investing or making moves off what I say on a stock market internet board.

    BUT........sentiment, especially with the professionals and financial media is still hesitant and unbelieving. That is a good thing. In general there has been a lot of money that has moved to cash over the past months and I dont see any signs of EUPHORIA among the average investors at all. A good thing. The economy in jobs, wages, business, etc, etc, is KILLING IT. In my opinion there is lots of room for good quality stocks like those in the DOW and SP500 to make a good year end run. My GUESS......this is just a GUESS......5% to 10% run up by the end of the year. EVERYTHING is in place for 2019 to end up as a HUGE year. One of those years that makes your returns for the LONG TERM. When you miss out on a year with potential like this one, you NEVER make it up. That is why I am a fully invested.....all the time.....investor. There is no way to predict a year like this and I dont like to miss these sorts of unexpected UP MOVES. I am willing to take the risk of the negative in order to be in the markets when years like this happen. It is my investing philosophy that moves like this are more probable than not over time and you have to be invested to take advantage of them. They are unpredictable, but necessary to meet or beat the returns of the unmanaged averages. Since I am LONG TERM, I allow the power of TIME and Compounding make up for the negative times. I make sure I get the unanticipated positive returns. My risk tolerance and very clinical approach to long term investing combined with over 45 years investing allows me to follow this fully invested all the time approach. The other BIG FACTOR.........I DO NOT do GREED. I dont take flyers on the latest, greatest hot thing trying to make a killing. i have found that GREED is usually and often a short term emotion. I am NOT looking for a short term killing. I stick with TOP QUALITY, PROVEN BUSINESS, WITH (hopefully) GREAT MANAGEMENT, ICONIC PRODUCTS, WORLD WIDE MARKETING, AMERICAN, COMPANIES.
     
  5. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Investor BIAS is a HUGE negative issue for any sort of investor including long term investors. The article below touches on this issue in a basic way. I have seen this information out there for a long time, but it is always good to revisit this sort of info and I suspect there are a lot of younger or newer investors that dont really appreciate or have awareness of this information. I think of this as GENETIC BASED HUMAN BEHAVIOR. These sorts of traits developed over millions of years are adaptive behaviors that allowed the human race to be successful and survive. In investing this sort of stuff can KILL you quickly.

    Don't Lose Money Playing Mind Games

    https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-...inance-avoid-losing-money-playing-mind-games/

    (BOLD is my opinion and what I consider important content)

    "It's one thing to understand investors' biases toward their money and portfolios, says Behavioral Finance Network's Jay Mooreland. It's harder to put that knowledge to use.

    Many individual investors may never have thought about the need to cope with their hidden biases.

    Even "advisors don't know what the heck to do with this stuff," he said. "We need to give advisors some applications, not just define terms." And if advisors struggle to know how biases cause people to make money mistakes, think how hard it is for investors themselves.

    Giving investors tools to stop biases from hurting financial decisions is the goal of two separate sessions at the Schwab Impact 2019 conference, which runs Monday through Thursday at the San Diego Convention Center.

    A lot of money is at stake as biases impact investment moves. And the challenge is widespread.

    Four Common Behavioral Biases
    Schwab's Omar Aguilar, who is speaking at Schwab Impact on the topic, says investors should avoid four common mistakes: recency bias, loss aversion, confirmation bias and home bias. Aguilar is chief investment officer of equities and multi-asset strategies.

    Recency bias is the tendency to be swayed by recent events. It propels investors to chase performance. They pile into securities that have done well recently.

    Loss aversion is the tendency to prefer avoiding losses over achieving comparable gains. "Usually loss aversion gets triggered in periods of high stress," Aguilar said. "It is what prompts (investors) to go to cash at the worst time. They sell low, then miss out on the subsequent market rebound."

    Seeking Info That Confirms Your Existing Beliefs
    Confirmation bias is the tendency for investors to seek information that reinforces their beliefs, rather than looking for objective data that might contradict them.

    And finally, there is home or familiarity bias. "This is Warren Buffett bias because Buffett says you should invest in something you're familiar with, something you feel comfortable with," Aguilar said.

    Practical Applications Of Behavioral Finance
    In fact, Aguilar advises investors to cope with each type of bias by taking these steps:

    • Recency bias: Resist the thought that whatever happened recently in the market will persist. "What happened recently does not necessarily reflect long-term trends, and it may not mesh with ... portfolio objectives and (a) long-term plan," Aguilar said. Advisors can help. "Communicate with clients. When they express an unrealistic expectation, point it out to them. Do this frequently and before a market downturn."
    • Loss aversion: Stay focused on long-term goals. Again, advisors play a role here. "Advisors should tell clients to stay off the phone and not watch a Bloomberg terminal all day," Aguilar said. And remind clients the market has always rallied, and their long-term plans matter more than short-term volatility.
    • Confirmation bias: Investors should look for divergent points of view on markets. One of advisors' key jobs is to provide clients with objective information they might not seek out by themselves. "Be proactive," Aguilar said. "Seek out viewpoints that may not reinforce a client's preconceived notions. And don't be afraid to tell clients to get a second opinion."
    • Home bias: This bias can lead investors to overweight positions in familiar securities. And a portfolio review can highlight this error. "Remind clients of the risks in that, and help them diversify their portfolios," Aguilar said.
    Putting Behavioral Finance To Work
    For advisors seeking to harness behavioral finance, Behavioral Finance Network's Mooreland offers several practical steps. The advice applies just as much directly to investors.

    Don't chase past performance. It's a way to combat recency bias — the belief that securities will continue to perform the way they have recently.

    Next, make a plan and stick to it. "If you listen to (some pundits), you'll constantly question your plan and switch from one strategy to another," Mooreland said. Resist that temptation.

    And think about how elements of your portfolio work in concert. Advisors play a role here. "Explain to (clients) what tends to go up and down in different markets so they won't be surprised when it happens. Surprise erodes confidence in their plan." And lack of confidence in the plan makes clients prone to doing the wrong thing — switching from one strategy to another.

    Behavioral Finance Sessions At Schwab Impact
    Behavioral finance will be a popular topic at Schwab Impact. It's the topic of a panel featuring Schwab's Aguilar, Greg Lawrence and Mark Riepe as well as Mercer Global Advisors' Henry Lao. That group is slated to convene on Tuesday at 1 p.m. The panel's title is "Building Better Portfolios with Behavioral Finance.""

    MY COMMENT

    YES.......basic stuff, but these behaviors are the building blocks of POOR PERFORMANCE. These behaviors are intimately connected to RISK TOLERANCE. In order to be a successful investor you have to be invested.......... and to be invested, and stay invested......... you have to have some level of self awareness to invest according to your personal risk tolerance.
     
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  6. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Excellent.


    It took a few years to fully comprehend my limitations, back in the 1980s. Basically, I had to learn that my big ideas were crap. From there, I made the decision to trust the market over my gut and simply hold on without regard for current events. Once this decision was made, investing became a lot more pleasant. It was a feeling of peace.

    One of the things from which I take reassurance is decades of gains. I know that taking a 50% hit would not wipe me out, nor would it come close wiping out gains I've made in 35 years of investing. There is peace in this knowledge.

    When I enter a new position, there is a period of time before I'm comfortable, regardless of how much I believe in it. Once it has been DRIPing, distributing, etc. for a while and the market price is significantly above the acquisition price, I mostly stop second guessing it. Sometimes that takes a couple of years. I try to time buys around market cap troughs, and usually come close, but time is the biggest factor in having a nice cushion of gains.

    I'm curious to your position on this.
     
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  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Hi Tom. In general, and for the past 25-30 years, I have been very comfortable doing what I do in my stock accounts. The long term methods and portfolio I use have been about the same process and theory for the past 40+ years. I have a very clinical investing personality, very unemotional. Combine that with the fact that I have always been successful as an investor and I have always had a very good comfort level. Some of that comfort stems from the fact that I dont bet the farm and take GREED BASED risk that is beyond my assets. It also helps that I have grad schooling in business, was a former business owner till retiring at age 49, and that I have a law degree (I DO NOT PRACTICE OR HOLD A LICENSE). NOT that any of those educational experiences teach you anything about investing. But from my business schooling and work life I do have an understanding of accounting and how to read business financials. I also got used to dealing in large sums of money in my work life from an early age........late 20's. Since I dont invest outside my comfort range in terms of available money, I am usually pretty comfortable. I do manage accounts of various family members and a trust and I would say that responsibility DOES NOT weigh on me at all. I guess I am lucky to be born that way. I have always had a head and talent for money, business, and investing. For me it is just a God given talent that I believe I was born with, not some genius ability. I do come from a family with multiple generations of business people and investors on one side, so there is probably some genetic heritage there. At the current time my income annuities and social security create a guaranteed income for me of a minimum of$175,000 to $180,000 per year for life, before any capital gains or investing gains. I also own a paid off home and a significant value in personal property (art, antiques, etc, etc) that is good enough quality to be liquid. So all in all I have a very good comfort level. BUT.....being human, it would piss me off to invest a big chunk of money, like the $830,000 and immediately go into a $50,000 hole. Even though it would piss me off, it would not change my investor behavior.......ie: investing that large sum of money all in all at once when I did. I have lived through many many corrections and recessions and I EXPECT in a normal year to have to live through 1-3 corrections. No big deal, just NORMAL, short term, market behavior.

    I DO like to see nice gains with newly invested money. Like the $830,000 that I recently invested, I am now up over $40,000 in a short time. I MUCH PREFER to have a nice gain early, but I also understand that short term it is random chance. At this time and at the time of that investment a month ago, I did not see anything standing in the way of a continued UPWARD move in the markets for at least the next 6-9 months. As the election nears things will get more and more erratic and crazy, based on media BS and political garbage. polls, etc, etc.

    HERE is the news of the day, that will be a factor in the Santa Clause rally that I believe is more probable than not going to the end of the year and into January. Hopefully in the 5-10% range from where we are today.

    Consumer Sentiment Climbs Higher

    https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2019/11/08/consumer-sentiment-climbs-higher/

    "Consumers are unshaken by the impeachment drama unfurling in Washington, D.C.
    The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index edged higher in early November, rising to 97.5 from October’s reading of 95. Economists had expected a smaller rise.

    The survey’s gauge of current conditions declined a bit. This was more than offset by an improvement in expectations.

    “References to the impact of impeachment on economic prospects were virtually non-existent, mentioned by less than 2% in October and November,” said Richard Curtin, the survey’s chief economist.

    Consumer sentiment is looked to for clues about consumer spending, which accounts for somewhere around 70 percent of economic activity. It is particularly important now because business investment has slumped. Consumer sentiment may also be politically important as we approach the 2020 presidential contest.

    “Although consumers have become somewhat more cautious spenders, they see no reason to engage in the type of retrenchment that causes recessions,” said Curtin."

    MY COMMENT

    As I have said a number of times. The short term future of stocks and funds will be driven by consumer sentiment, booming jobs, booming wages, more money in the pocket for individuals due to the tax cuts and the continued driving of business by the corporate tax cuts. ONWARD AND UPWARD.........TO INFINITY AND BEYOND.
     
    #627 WXYZ, Nov 8, 2019
    Last edited: Nov 8, 2019
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  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    HERE is another PERFECT example of the investing/financial media and the baloney they pull. I was watching CNBC yesterday morning for a brief while. I normally have Varney on in the mornings in the background and than at 11:00 switch to CNBC since I cant stand the garbage that Cavuto spouts on his show. CNBC is bland and oriented often toward trading, but I find them fairly accurate in a general way. Yesterday there was a segment on the $2.2TRILLION that business is siting on. There was a guest spouting on and on that the $2.2 Trillion was being held by business for paying tariffs. He than claimed that the figure was deceptive since small businesses were having such a hard time and were struggling financially. TOTAL BALONEY, by a guest that OBVIOUSLY was stating a political bias as fact to try to influence viewers. I expect the guests to try this sort of crap. BUT......what I think is media malpractice for a financial show......is that ALL the hosts just sat there and said nothing. What the "guest" was saying is BLATANTLY WRONG. Business is not siting on $2.2Trillion due to tariffs. They are siting on that money because they have gone on a financing BINGE to take advantage of low interest rates and because they are experiencing record productivity (expense and employee cutting) and tax savings due to the tax reform, and are NOT spending that extra money on research, plants and facilities, expansion of products and marketing, acquisitions, etc, etc. NOT TO MENTION, returning that money to shareholders as dividends.

    The WORST BALONEY that went unchallenged is the part about small business. Small business is THRIVING. The opposite of what the "guest was claiming as unchallenged fact. Just ANOTHER example of media BALONEY by just siting there and not having the sense to challenge a totally false statement. The dirty truth is probably that unless the producer of the show whispers something in their ear the hosts on these sorts of shows are IDIOTS and really dont know much at all.

    The Truth:

    Small-Business Optimism Rises in October: NFIB

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/small-business-optimism-rises-in-october-nfib-2019-11-12-6485329

    (BOLD is my opinion and what I consider important content)

    "Small-business owners' confidence in the U.S. economy rose in October, as concerns of a recession receded, according to a survey by the National Federation of Independent Business.

    The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index had an October reading of 102.4, up 0.6 point from the prior month.

    The NFIB said optimism rose because business owners are still creating jobs, raising wages and expanding their businesses.

    Overall, eight of the 10 components in the index advanced in October.

    The NFIB survey is a monthly snapshot of small-business activity in the U.S., which accounts for nearly half of private-sector jobs. Economists look to the report for a read on domestic demand and to extrapolate hiring and wage trends in the broader economy.

    The NFIB survey results--based on responses from 1,618 small-business owners last month--showed that the labor market remains tight, with 25% of firms reporting finding qualified workers as their top concern, the report said.

    Around 59% of business owners reported capital outlays in October, and 29% of firms reported plans for capital outlays.

    A net 30% of firms reported higher worker compensation, while 22% of all firms plan to raise compensation.

    Job creation remained steady in October, with an average addition of 0.12 workers per firm. This was still a stark contrast from February, when small businesses added an average 0.52 workers per firm.

    MY COMMENT

    The above exchange on a national business show with MUTE hosts in response to a blatantly false statement is typical. The MEDIA has an agenda. In the alternative they are IDIOTS. Or......probably BOTH. These are GOLDEN days for small business. The only negative is the fact that is is very difficult to find qualified workers. In addition that $2.2Trillion has NOTHING to do with tariffs. As usual.......invest according to the actual facts as you determine them to be......NOT the CRAP you see in the daily media......even the financial media.

    BOEING.....added over $14 per share yesterday, giving back some today but is still up very nicely over the past week or two. The stock is STILL, in my opinion, a SCREAMING BUY. There is some real money to be made in this stock over the nest 6-12 months at the level it is today. It is STILL about $76 per share below where it was just 8 months ago before the impact of the 737 FIASCO. In my opinion there is HUGE upside to this stock. HOWEVER, anyone buying this stock needs to have the guts to sit through the remainder of the 737 issue, which in my opinion is more serious and harder to fix than the company is admitting. I.....am GUESSING.....that this 737 stuff will be fixed some time over the next 6 to 12 months and at that time the company will march back toward $440 per share. I will continue to hold Boeing stock.......I also remain fully invested for the long term as usual.
     
  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    For any that thought the CIRCUS on capital hill today would tank the markets or even have some impact. NO SUCH LUCK. BORING.........not to mention a total waste of time. Looks like we are STILL on track to add a lot of wealth and value for investors over the remainder of the year. AND......January should be a nice continuation of this short term KILLER market.
     
  10. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    BOEING.......continues to climb out of the DEEP HOLE that it dug for itself with foreign manufacturing, foreign parts, and foreign labor here in the USA. The dangers of saving money on the backs of competent AMERICAN workers. Add in management malpractice on this 737 issue and you have the current situation. I will continue to hold the stock because I believe they have an actual world wide monopoly in the airplane market plus a nice defense business on the side. It will be two steps forward and one step back for the coming months......at least until the 737 is allowed to fly again. I would hope they are at least smart enough that THERE WILL BE NO MORE SURPRISES going forward. Hopefully that have now gotten all the negative info out and public and the drip, drip, drip of bad news is over. BUT.....nothing surprises me anymore with modern CELEBRITY, me, me, me, corporate leaders.

    Nice mixed markets today with the DOW and SP500 up a little bit. BUMMER for China. GEE......I really don't see ANY impact of the TRADE WAR or the TARIFFS here in the good old USA. Except.........of course.......for all the BIG BUCKS (billions) of dollars that are flowing into the US Treasury from the Chinese and those foolish enough to manufacture and give away their technology, manufacturing secrets, and business methods by manufacturing in China. Actually, I believe it might be a good thing to EXPAND the tariffs and HAMMER China while we have the chance. No reason for us to be in a hurry to end this trade war. Everything about this situation is in our favor. AND everything going on around the world right now is just CONFIRMING in a big way that WE are the worlds economic leader and the only game in town when it comes to investing or safeguarding money.

    Asian markets mixed after China data disappoints


    https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/13/investing/asian-market-latest/index.html
     
  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    TIME to cheer-lead the markets today.

    Santa Clause rally is ON. What a move today. Dow over 28,000 for the fist time in history. All time record high. Lots of time left in the year.....plenty of time to tack on another 5-10% by year end. This year has the potential to have HISTORIC GAINS. Notice.......I said "potential".........since short term, who knows what will happen. But at times like this you just HOLD ON and enjoy the ride. At the moment we are on a FOUR WEEK STREAK. JUST FOR FUN........my year end prediction.........DOW 30,240. Anyone else feel free to post your year end prediction.........good or bad.

    DOW year to date +20.05%
    SP500 year to date +24.48%
     

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