The Long Term Investor

Here is another "income" category for people to consider that are looking for ULTRA SAFE income producing vehicles.

Do I Bonds once again make sense as inflation heats up?

https://www.oregonlive.com/business...e-again-make-sense-as-inflation-heats-up.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Sure, you can grumble about gas prices soaring at the pump, the sky-high costs for booking a rental car and the price of remodeling a kitchen.

Or you can consider where to make some good money as inflation heats up.

Ever hear of an I Bond? Buying an inflation-indexed U.S. savings bond, called an I Bond, isn’t as thrilling as bragging about buying bitcoin. But you will make a great deal more money now than parking your cash in a traditional savings account.

I Bonds issued from May through October now offer an annualized rate of 3.54%, good for six months, thanks to an uptick in inflation. Remember, though, you are looking at a variable rate that will go up or down over time, and likely change every six months.

Pay attention to a variety of rules and restrictions. And if you bought I Bonds say 20 years or so ago, you don’t want to rush to unload the bonds you already have in place. Your old I Bond might be far better than a new one.

Why a little I Bond history matters

I began writing about I Bonds practically since they were launched in September 1998. One column I wrote back in November 1999 carried this enticing headline: “I Bonds rate eye-popping at 7 percent.” The composite rate for the first six months applied to I Bonds bought from November 1999 through April 2000.

I Bonds had some pretty strong sales years in the early 2000s. I Bond sales hit nearly $963 million, for example, in May 2003 and continued to have a strong summer, according to my review of the federal government’s database.

And then nearly $1.28 billion in I Bonds were sold in October 2003.

More than $46.5 billion was outstanding in I Bonds, according to data from the federal government, with nearly 29.8 million I Bonds continuing to earn interest.

Billions of dollars in bonds — and many now say they’ve never heard of them.

No one has been getting excited about savings bonds for many years, especially as we saw interest rates tumble.

As the fear of inflation builds, though, investors are looking for spots where they might profit should prices keep climbing. And I Bonds are gaining more buzz in 2021.

The 3.54% annualized rate applies for the first six months that you own the bond and can fluctuate every six months based on inflation.

The rate for an I Bond is two-fold — there’s a 0% fixed rate on I Bonds bought from May through October. And you’re getting an inflation adjustment on top of that fixed rate.

Should inflation continue to heat up, you’ve got a chance to pick up more cash along the way.

Should things cool off, there’s a shot that these bonds could be paying 0% at some points down the road. The earnings rate can’t go below zero and the redemption value of your I Bonds can’t decline.

Who’s buying I Bonds?

As much as we’re hearing about a red hot housing market, it turns out that I Bonds are suddenly fairly hot property, too. Far more people are buying I Bonds than just a year ago.

In May, savers bought 26,432 Series I Bonds valued at nearly $127.6 million. That is nearly five times as many bonds bought in May 2020 and almost 10 times the dollars invested at that same time a year ago, according to Fiscal Data numbers reported online by the Bureau of the Fiscal Service, which is part of the U.S. Treasury Department.

In May 2020, savers bought 5,610 in I Bonds valued at nearly $13.4 million.

Those who bought a new I Bond from May 2020 through October 2020 started out receiving 1.06% for the first six months of those bonds. But they are receiving the higher rates now, too, based on inflation adjustments.

Donald Grimes, an economist at the University of Michigan, said he bought some I Bonds this spring as a way to take advantage of the higher rate, seek a hedge against inflation and offer some protection for his retirement savings in a down market. He hadn’t heard of these bonds until a friend mentioned them.

He sees the I Bonds as a much better option for emergency fund money — paying significantly more than money market accounts or savings accounts — as long as you don’t need the money in the first year.

“I think stocks are still the best investment over the long run,” he said. “But I Bonds are a better alternative than CDs and any other government bonds today for the ‘fixed’ income part of your portfolio.”

The inflation-based rate on an I Bond reflects the Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers. The CPI-U increased from 260.280 in September 2020 to 264.877 in March 2021, a six-month change of 1.77%.

What should make you think twice?

Sure, the rates on I Bonds look far better than some savings accounts that pay a piddly 0.01% to 0.03%.

The average rate on a one-year certificate was 0.17% in late June, according to Bankrate.com. The average minimum deposit was $1,427.

One big stumbling block for I Bonds: You’re going to have to wait one year at least to cash out of a new I Bond.

And you’d lose out on the last three months of interest on your I Bonds if you redeem a bond within the first five years of buying it. But the current rate, experts say, may be attractive enough to even lose a bit of interest if you need to sell the bonds in two or three years.

And many see inflation as a growing problem ahead, given pressures in the supply chain, such as those in the auto industry; federal government spending on stimulus programs; pay increases and a push toward a $15 minimum wage.

The earnings rate for Series I Savings Bonds is a combination of a fixed rate, which applies for the 30-year life of the bond, and the semiannual inflation rate. New rates for savings bonds are set each May 1 and Nov. 1.

All I Bonds out there continue to earn interest today. The first I Bond to stop earning interest would be in 2028.

How do you buy I Bonds?

Unlike many years ago, you cannot simply walk into a bank and buy savings bonds now.

You can set aside up to $10,000 in I Bonds each calendar year through an electronic TreasuryDirect account. See TreasuryDirect.gov.

It’s also possible to buy up to an additional $5,000 in paper I Bonds if you have a tax refund coming when you file your federal income tax return. You’d need to complete IRS Form 8888 and include it when you file your tax return.

The minimum purchase amount is $25 for an I Bond in an electronic account and the minimum purchase is $50 when buying through a tax refund. (Paper I bonds are issued in denominations of $50, $100, $200, $500, and $1,000, depending on the amount you request.)

Should you buy a savings bond on eBay?

No — not if you’re hoping to cash it.

Anyone buying a savings bond at auction will be unable to redeem that bond and won’t receive any cash.

What you’re getting at auction is just a “piece of paper showing a bond that still is the property of the owner or co-owners named on the bond,” according to a warning from TreasuryDirect.

“In some cases, the bond may be the property of the United States Treasury, if it’s a bond that was lost and has since been replaced. Bottom line: It’s not a good idea to buy a savings bond at an auction because you do not acquire any title to the bond or have any ownership rights.”

What’s a little strange about this I Bond story?

Returning back to my days of covering savings bonds, I tracked down savings bond guru Dan Pederson to help me navigate I Bond sales and trends over the years.

Pederson operates a savings bond consulting firm out of Monroe and has a website called BondHelper.com. Pederson still puts together savings bond statements for a fee to spell out the value of one’s savings bond holdings, as well as rating the best savings bonds to keep. He is reachable at [email protected].

Pederson and I have talked over the years about all sorts of oddities in the savings bond program and trends. He pointed out something strange about the latest data.

What’s interesting, he said, is that savers are redeeming their old I Bonds at a fast clip now, too.

Savers actually cashed out more savings bonds than they bought in May.

According to the Fiscal Data numbers, savers redeemed 90,260 Series I Bonds in May 2021 — cashing out nearly $167.8 million.

From January through April, savers redeemed more than $701 million in I Bonds this year.

There could be a long list of reasons why some people want their money now.

Some might have bought those bonds 20 years ago and figure it’s OK to live a little now. Or they’re trying to help their children get through college.

Some could need the money now to pay bills after retiring earlier than expected or losing a job.

Some families may have faced the death of a loved one and decided to cash the bonds.

But Pederson is concerned that there could be another reason: Some people clearly do not understand the I Bonds that they have or how these bonds work.

It’s possible, he said, that some people may be reading about new rates on I Bonds and think that their old I Bonds are stuck earning far less than a new bond pays. But that’s not true at all.

Right now, any I Bond bought before May 2021 is not a worse deal — and many could be a far better deal — than a new I Bond bought from May through October.

Take I Bonds issued from November 1999 through April 2000. The floor is a fixed rate of 3.4% on those bonds and that floor is usually maintained for the 30-year life of the bond. (Pederson notes that the only exception is deflation. “If we have a negative 1% inflation, it could provide a short term where the rate is less than 3.4% but above 0% on the combination of the two,” he said.)

So the higher inflation premium of 3.54% offered now is added on top of 3.4% — driving it up to 6.94% for a six month period — if you bought an I Bond during that period some 21 years ago.

We’d be back into those “eye-popping I Bond rate” days.

The fixed rates are all over the map on I Bonds — ranging from 0% now to 3.6% offered on I Bonds issued from May 2000 through October 2000. The TreasuryDirect.gov site has a chart that details the 30-year fixed rate for I Bonds issued since September 1998 through the current I Bonds. The site also has inflation rates and composite rates.

Pederson said the last thing someone would want to do is sell off an old I Bond in the hopes of getting a better rate by purchasing a new I Bond issued from May through October.

If you do that, you risk selling off a bond that’s paying a higher rate than you’d get now.

Yep, there’s a lot more to I Bonds than meets the eye."

MY COMMENT

NOT trying to recommend for or against I-Bonds. For someone that thinks that INFLATION is going to heat up and be an issue for the next 1-3 years......and.......is holding cash in a CD or savings account.....these may be a good alternative to a savings account or a CD.

Something to think about......for the right situation.....and the right person.

 

The good news for HOME SHOPPERS....here locally.....in my little area of 4200 homes.....we NOW have 10 homes from a low of $500,000 to a medium level of $700,000......active and for sale. This is the LOW END of the market. For this area....these are affordable homes for entry level buyers.......especially....considering the current VERY LOW mortgage rates. This is the best the market has been in a long time.......although inventory........is STILL exceptionally low and multiple offers are the norm.

The other 10 homes actively for sale in this area range from $700,000 to $9,000,000.....with the majority of them being over a million.

 

Here is a bit of a week preview. As usual......the FED is back. Fortunately.....I dont see any change to the market environment this week. It will be the same general FEEL as the past 3-4 weeks.

Fed meeting minutes: What to know this week

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/holi...minutes-what-to-know-this-week-102647733.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)
"Investors will return on Tuesday to a holiday-shortened week, with the stock market closed Monday in observance of the Fourth of July in the U.S.

The central focus of the week will be on a handful of economic data reports, including the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) June meeting. These are set to help give traders a better sense of when Fed officials might begin tapering their crisis-era asset purchase program and raising benchmark interest rates from their current near-zero levels.

The Fed's June meeting several weeks ago marked a notable shift in the Fed's outlook, with the central bank's updated Summary of Economic Projections reflecting both increased GDP and inflation expectations and the possibility of two rate hikes by the end of 2023. In his press conference following the June meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell also said it was time to "retire" the notion of "talking about talking about tapering," since the central bank had in fact begun to contemplate the timing of such a move.

"The mid-June meeting saw a range of officials bring forward projections for interest rate hikes and [the minutes] will probably reveal several stressing the upside risks to their relatively benign inflation forecasts," Andrew Hunter, senior U.S. economist for Capital Economics said in a note Friday. "This was also the meeting at which Chair Jerome Powell finally admitted they began 'talking about talking about' tapering."

In Wednesday's Fed meeting minutes, "We may see some clarification of what would constitute 'substantial further progress' towards the Fed’s goals," Hunter added. "Comments from a range of officials following the meeting leave us comfortable with our view that most won’t judge that to be the case until late summer/early fall, with tapering announced around the time of the Jackson Hole summit or the September FOMC meeting."

Last week, a couple Fed officials made public remarks that hinted that the conversation around tapering was picking up faster than Powell had articulated. Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan told Bloomberg on Wednesday that, "We'll be far healthier sooner rather than later to begin" tapering, adding that the economy was likely to meet the "substantial further progress" threshold the Fed has set toward recovering faster than he expected.

"These purchases are very adept at stimulating demand, but we've got plenty of demand," he said. "Our problem is supply, and these purchases are not very effective when you've got a supply issue. And so that's a factor that tells me that as soon as we can get to 'substantial further progress,' we'll be healthier to wean off these purchases."

And also last week, Fed Governor Christopher Waller told Bloomberg he believes it would be "appropriate to start thinking about pulling back on some of the stimulus." On prospects for a 2022 rate hike, he added he was "not ruling it out." The comments stood out as particularly notable coming from Waller, a presumed "dove" who has typically favored more accommodative monetary policy among his Fed peers.

Importantly, the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes will not take into consideration the June jobs report, which came out last Friday after the Fed's last meeting. Still, the report — which reflected the biggest monthly payroll gain since August 2020 and an acceleration in average hourly earnings over last year — may be mentioned in forthcoming Fed commentary as a step toward "substantial further progress."

For Bank of America economist Michelle Meyer, three themes will be in focus when reviewing the Fed's forthcoming meeting minutes: the path for tapering, the Fed's level of concern around persistent inflation, and the central bank's views on the recovery in the employment-to-population ratio.

"We expect the minutes to reiterate the language from Chair Powell that a plan for asset purchases could be announced at an upcoming meeting depending on the data," Meyer said in a note Friday. "It will be interesting to learn about the variables Fed officials are monitoring to determine how persistent inflation may prove to be. We expect a discussion about inflation expectations and a mention of some of the categories driving up inflation."

And in terms of the labor market, "A clearly stated goal of the Fed has been to recover to the pre-COVID level of jobs," she added. "However, constrained labor supply has presented challenges. It will be noteworthy if the minutes give a sense of how close to the pre-COVID level would be acceptable to declare substantial progress."

ISM Services Index: state of the U.S. economy
The Institute for Supply Management Services index for July will also be in focus this week, with the latest print slated for release on Tuesday.

The index is expected to have moderated to a reading of 63.6 in June from 64.0 in May, which had been an all-time high in data going back to 2008. Readings above the neutral level of 50.0 indicate expansion in a sector.

The ISM Services Index comes as broader business reopenings and stronger consumer mobility and demand trends have stoked a pick-up in activity, especially in leisure and hospitality. However, supply constraints are weighing on the pace of the recovery, especially in terms of finding workers. The employment subindex in ISM's Manufacturing index last week fell into contractionary territory for the first time since November, reflecting the impacts of these scarcities.

IHS Markit's flash composite purchasing managers' index last week also lowered the bar for the ISM print this week. That firm's preliminary monthly services business activity index fell to a two-month low of 64.8 for June from 70.4 in May.

"Struggles among companies to find suitable workers hampered employment growth in June," IHS Markit said in its release. "Although strong, the rate of job creation was the slowest for three months. Pressure on capacity was reflected in a solid rise in backlogs of work."

"At the same time, inflationary pressures remained elevated in June," the firm added. "Service providers stated that wage costs and additional transportation fees pushed up cost burdens, which rose at the second-fastest pace on record."

Economic Calendar

• Monday: N/A
  
  
• Tuesday: Markit U.S. Services PMI, June final (64.8 expected, 64.8 in May); Markit U.S. Composite PMI, June final (63.9 in prior print); ISM Services Index, June (63.6 expected, 64.0 in May)
  
  
• Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended July 2 (-6.9% during prior week); JOLTS job openings, May (9.313 expected, 9.286 million in April); FOMC Meeting Minutes, June meeting
  
  
• Thursday: Initial jobless claims, week ended July 3 (350,000 expected, 364,000 during prior week); Continuing claims, week ended June 26 (3.325 million expected, 3.469 million during prior week); Consumer credit, May ($18.000 billion expected, $18.612 billion in April)
  
  
• Friday: Wholesale inventories, month-over-month, May final (1.1% expected, 1.1% in prior print)

MY COMMENT

Who cares. The constant FED releases and comments are a continued joke. Investors are worn out by this stuff and now seem to just tune it out.

What WILL matter going forward is going to be the EARNINGS....which will start in just a few weeks. We should soon be seeing some of the typical media coverage attempting to fear monger the coming earnings.

 

In conjunction with the first post on this page......my number 1 BLACK SWAN prediction for the next 12 months......the "possible"....Chinese invasion of and taking of Taiwan.

Taiwan’s foreign minister says ‘we need to prepare’ for military conflict with China

https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/24/asia/taiwan-foreign-minister-china-intl-hnk/index.html

Mainland Chinese magazine outlines how surprise attack on Taiwan could occur

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/mil...-magazine-outlines-how-surprise-attack-taiwan

MY COMMENT

This would provide a little market drop for a while.......2-4 weeks. Perhaps more depending on the response and amount of time it takes for the island to be overwhelmed. I suspect it would just take a week or two. Media coverage and speculation would be INTENSE...but in the end no one will do anything other than TALK.

 

Looking for the typical....recent....open tomorrow. AND.....we begin the FINAL COUNTDOWN for NVIDIA to the stock split.....10 days and counting.

 

HERE is a follow up to the dangers of investing with the Chinese government as your managing partner.

Didi shares crash 22% after China bans it from app stores

https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/06/investing/didi-stock-china-probe-intl-hnk/index.html

NOT....going to discuss or summarize this article. This is OBVIOUS STUFF for any potential investor......or....should be.

 

Markets seem to be doing well today. The stealth rally continues......at least for the broader averages. BUT....this is the typical SHALLOW......TENUOUS......open today. I do not have much confidence in the opening numbers. Whether you have opened green or red....will depend on the very specific stocks that you hold on a day like today.

In other words.....short term erratic FLUFF.......but in general another day in the long term UP trend.

 

I had to look early today since it seemed like a very strong day for the a particular stocks that I hold. And....it is....I am showing very strong gains for this early in the day. I dont have a lot of confidence that they will hold till the close. they may.....they may not. But....I would rather start the day with a gain....if I had a choice.

 

We have a VERY mixed market today. LOTS of financial professionals STILL on vacation....that is a good thing.

Stock market news live updates: Stocks drift at record levels, oil prices advance after OPEC breakdown

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-july-6-2021-113010400.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Stocks were mixed on Tuesday but held near record levels as traders returned to a relatively sanguine session following a holiday weekend in the U.S.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq each eked out record intraday highs. Each of the major indexes jumped to fresh record closing highs on Friday, propelled by a June jobs report that reflected a healthy pace of recovery in the labor market but that did not suggest an overheating economy.

Oil prices pared some gains after climbing amid a breakdown in discussions between OPEC+ members earlier this week, with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in a stalemate over production cuts. The meeting, which began with a tentative deal to increase output given elevated energy demand during the pandemic-era recovery, ultimately yielded no decision, sending prices of both U.S. and Brent crude higher. A Reuters report that major oil exporter Saudi Arabia raised its August official selling prices (OSPs) for Asia compounded the move higher in the commodities.

"As negotiations continue, we estimate that most outcomes (1) still imply higher prices incoming months as the physical market tightens, (2) with higher OPEC+ production than the group discussed needed by the global oil market next year," Goldman Sachs analyst Damien Courvalin wrote in a note Tuesday. "Price volatility will likely rise."

U.S. West Texas intermediate crude oil futures (CL=F) rose as high as $76.98, or the highest level since mid-2014. Brent crude, the international benchmark (BZ=F) hovered at a two-year high of nearly $78 per barrel.

Equity investors will be looking ahead to the release of the Federal Open Market Committee's June meeting minutes, which will help reveal central bankers' thoughts around adjusting monetary policy as the economic recovery matures. The June meeting had marked a notable shift in the Fed's outlook, with the central bank signaling as many as two rate hikes by 2023. Subsequent public remarks revealed a number of committee members were also warming to the idea of a sooner-rather-than-later move to taper the Fed's crisis-era asset purchase program.

Next week, more catalysts will come as second-quarter earnings season kicks off. As has been the case over the past several quarters, Wall Street has struck an optimistic tone heading into earnings season, especially as vaccinations and business reopenings picked up over the past several months. Consensus on the Street is for second-quarter S&P 500 earnings to grow by an aggregate 63.6% year-on-year, according to FactSet. This would mark the highest earnings growth rate since the fourth quarter of 2009.

8:26 a.m. ET: Didi Global shares plummet after Chinese regulators crack down on ride-sharing app
Shares of Didi Global (DIDI) plunged by more than 19% Tuesday morning after Chinese regulators demanded that Didi's ride-hailing app be removed from mobile app stores in the country.

The move, which came from the Cyberspace Administration of China, came following an investigation around Didi's data-handling practices. The announcement also came just days following Didi's $4.4 billion initial public offering on the New York Stock Exchange, in the largest IPO of a Chinese company in the U.S. since Alibaba's (BABA) debut in 2014.

Shares of other Chinese companies listed in the U.S. including Full Truck Alliance (YMM) and Nio (NIO) also declined, with the specter of an even firmer crackdown from Chinese regulators looming following their decision on Didi. Didi, like other major Chinese tech giants Alibaba, has been the subject of considerable scrutiny from the Chinese government in recent months, and had noted in its prospectus to go public that it met with Chinese market regulators several months ago."

MY COMMENT

You have to LOVE the summer markets and LACK of financial media coverage. It is so nice when all the TRADERS are on vacation and they are not trying to manipulate their trades with media content. I would NOT trust or touch short term investing with a........40 foot stick......there is just TOO MUCH manipulation going on these days.

YES......we will actually have hard news starting in a week or two......when earnings start. That data is trustworthy.....and....actually RELEVANT to specific companies. Seems to me....that is the KEY to ALL investing.....what specific companies are doing year to year.

 

DAY 10.....of the countdown to the NVIDIA SPLIT. At the moment the stock is +$10.72 or 1.31%. A good beginning to the FINAL COUNTDOWN.

Not that I am recommending anyone to buy the stock after this HUGE run-up. And....I do not discount the......slight potential.....for some event to come out of left field and tank the stock. I dont think it will happen over the next ten days.....but CHINA is involved in the approval of the ARM merger....and the way they have been FLEXING their financial and investment muscles lately......does give me some pause. I think the recent actions coming out of China.....are being done for CONTROL and as a WARNING......but also....just to cause general economic disruption to markets and investors outside of China.

 

I guess the markets are having some fun with Jeff Bezos today. He leaves the top jobs at AMAZON.....and the stock takes off like a ROCKET.

Lets hope this is an indicator of the potential for a stock split. My FANTASY is that they will announce a split at the next earnings report in a few weeks. (July 29, 2021) Unfortunately....as I said......."fantasy".

The KEY for the company going forward will be whether or not a.....TECH GUY.....can manage the RETAIL and operations side of the Amazon behemoth. He has done a good job with WEB SERVICES....but it is a very different story to manage this ENTIRE company.

 

HERE is another bit of info on NVIDIA.

Nvidia Gains on Another Analyst Price-Target Boost
Nvidia shares gain after another Wall Street price-target boost amid expectations of strong demand for video graphics cards used for gaming and crypto mining.

https://www.thestreet.com/investing...ce-target-boost-070621?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Nvidia (NVDA) - Get Report shares gained on Tuesday after another Wall Street analyst lifted his price target to near $1,000 amid expectations of continued strong demand for video graphics cards and related semiconductors that are used for both gaming and mining cryptocurrencies.

Keybanc analyst John Vinh lifted his one-year price target on Nvidia to $950 from $775, following in the footsteps of BMO Capital Markets analyst Ambrish Srivastava, who just last Thursday lifted his own price target on the chip titan to a Wall Street high of $1,000 from $975 and affirmed an outperform rating.

Analysts have piled on the praise for Nvidia since the company’s first-quarter results, which came in better than expected amid strength in so-called hyperscale data center demand, which includes demand for its graphics cards and chips using for both gaming and crypto mining.

Even before then, analysts were touting Nvidia’s performance amid strong demand for its gaming graphics cards, which surged through the pandemic and stay-at-home orders that boosted demand for at-home entertainment like video games, compounded by the ongoing chip shortage that has boosted demand - and prices - for the chips and the cards themselves.

At the same time, surging prices for Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies this year also have fueled demand. Crypto miners use graphics processing units, or GPUs, to mine currencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. Nvidia’s latest RTX 30 series, launched last year, has proven particularly popular with miners.

TheStreet's Jim Cramer in his Real Money column on Tuesday noted another reason to be bullish on Nvidia: a potential acquisition that will beef up its business even more.

Specifically, Jim pointed to the increasing likelihood that regulators will allow the company to buy Arm Holdings, a British company that excels in cellphones and personal computers, which will add to its already strong sales pipeline that has been driven by far more than just demand from Ethereum miners.

"I'm sure some of you might think that Nvidia is more of an Ethereum play, because its cards are used to mine the cryptocurrency," Cramer wrote. "In reality, that's a tiny portion of their business and is made up of cards that aren't up to specification for gaming, scrap if you will."

In May, Nvidia announced a 4-for-1 stock split to make it easier for employees and outside investors to buy shares.

For its fiscal second quarter which ends in July, Nvidia expects revenue of $6.3 billion at the midpoint, well above FactSet's consensus estimates of $5.47 billion, driven by growth across all its business segments, led by crypto, data center, and gaming.

At last check, shares of Nvidia were up 1.22% at $829.48. The stock has gained more than 16% in the past month and more than 56% since the start of the year."

MY COMMENT

These analyst expectations are nice.....but....my view is that MOST of the recent gains are due to the stock split. I do hold the company as one of my 10 long term holdings.

At the same time....I have 35 shares....that I purchased at the time of the split announcement. i anticipate that I will sell enough of those shares immediately after the split....to pay off the purchase price. I....HOPE....to be left with about 50-60 post split shares as PROFIT. I will not be surprised to see the stock DROP a few days after the split.

The way this company is going and if the ARM merger is approved......they have a shot to be one of the BIG TECH MONSTERS....at some point in the future. They are BIG at this point....but....not yet in the same class as.....AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT, FB, and AAPL.

 

Yes....to be clear......I will NOT sell any of the NVIDIA shares that I had before the split announcement.

BUT....on May 21 when the split was announced.........I bought 30.....now 35....shares on margin. I WILL sell ENOUGH of those shares the day or so after the split to pay off my MARGIN. After paying off the margin.....I am hoping to have about 50-60 post split shares left over as PROFIT. I will keep those "profit" shares and add them to my long term shares.

Not sure how clear this is.....but.

In other words at the time of the split announcement.....May 21, 2021.....I did a short term buy of 30 shares......I increased it to 35 shares. These 35 shares are in addition to my regular NVIDIA long term shares. When the split shares start to trade on July 20.....I will sell enough of the 35 shares to pay back my purchase price and keep the rest as profit. At the moment I have a profit of $7632.....on the short term.....split.... trade shares.

 

This morning I note that the INFLATION fear mongers seem to be out in force.....again. I also note that the yield on the Ten Year Treasury has now fallen to........1.372%. That is at the bottom of the last 100 years.....of ten year yields.

 

I dont have any plans to sell any of my holding of NVIDIA. I will ONLY sell......some......of the short term trade shares that I bought on May 21, 2021. My "aspirational goal" for my short term NVIDIA trade is a profit of $10,000......or......to end up with 50 or more FREE shares post split......after I pay off my MARGIN balance.

AND......BIG DAY for my account today. I was VERY green.....with 7 of 10 positions UP. I also spanked the SP500 by 1.2% today. My BIG GUNS today were.....AAPL +1.47%.....AMZN.....+4.69%......and....NVDA....+1.03%.

How EMBARRASSING for Jeff Bezos......you leave your management position.....and....the stock goes into a major one day rally.

 

I did not pay much attention to the markets today....I was busy elsewhere....but....it seems like one of those days when very shallow conditions MAGNIFY the losses and gains. I have not looked to see if the volume was low today....but the end result reminds me of a low volume day.

Stock market news live updates: Stocks pull back from record levels to end mixed: Dow drops 209 points, or 0.6%

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-july-6-2021-113010400.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Stocks ended mixed on Tuesday as the S&P 500 and Dow each pulled back from record levels.

The S&P 500 dropped after eking out a record intraday high. The Dow shed more than 1%, or 400 points, at session lows, but pared losses to end lower by just over 200 points. Some Big Tech stocks outperform to help lead the Nasdaq higher, and Amazon (AMZN) gained more than 4.5% while Apple (AAPL) added 1.5% to end at the stock's highest level since January. Each of the major indexes had jumped to fresh record closing highs on Friday, propelled by a June jobs report that reflected a healthy pace of recovery in the labor market but that did not suggest an overheating economy.

Oil prices turned lower after climbing to a multi-year high amid a breakdown in discussions between OPEC+ members earlier this week, with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in a stalemate over production cuts. The meeting, which began with a tentative deal to increase output given elevated energy demand during the pandemic-era recovery, ultimately yielded no decision, sending prices of both U.S. and Brent crude higher. A Reuters report that major oil exporter Saudi Arabia raised its August official selling prices (OSPs) for Asia compounded the move higher in the commodities.

"As negotiations continue, we estimate that most outcomes (1) still imply higher prices incoming months as the physical market tightens, (2) with higher OPEC+ production than the group discussed needed by the global oil market next year," Goldman Sachs analyst Damien Courvalin wrote in a note Tuesday. "Price volatility will likely rise."

U.S. West Texas intermediate crude oil futures (CL=F) rose as high as $76.98, or the highest level since mid-2014. Brent crude, the international benchmark (BZ=F) hovered at a two-year high of nearly $78 per barrel.

Equity investors will be looking ahead to the release of the Federal Open Market Committee's June meeting minutes, which will help reveal central bankers' thoughts around adjusting monetary policy as the economic recovery matures. The June meeting had marked a notable shift in the Fed's outlook, with the central bank signaling as many as two rate hikes by 2023. Subsequent public remarks revealed a number of committee members were also warming to the idea of a sooner-rather-than-later move to taper the Fed's crisis-era asset purchase program.

Next week, more catalysts will come as second-quarter earnings season kicks off. As has been the case over the past several quarters, Wall Street has struck an optimistic tone heading into earnings season, especially as vaccinations and business reopenings picked up over the past several months. Consensus on the Street is for second-quarter S&P 500 earnings to grow by an aggregate 63.6% year-on-year, according to FactSet. This would mark the highest earnings growth rate since the fourth quarter of 2009."

My COMMENT

YES......oldmanram.....a very nice day today. One of those days that confounds people. Very dependent on the individual holdings of any one investor.

We had a Dodge Cummins Diesel Truck. That was a great truck. Now that we are boarding our horses we dont have any need for a truck so we got rid of it and the horse trailer a few years ago.