HERE is the irrelevant economic news of the day that everyone will ignore....as usual. U.S. Job Openings Rise to Record, Underscore Hiring Difficulties https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ngs-rise-to-record-9-2-million-after-revision (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "U.S. job openings rose to a fresh record high in May, underscoring persistent hiring difficulties and reflecting more vacancies in the health care, education and hospitality industries. The number of available positions climbed to 9.21 million during the month from a downwardly revised 9.19 million in April, the Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, showed Wednesday. The availability of vaccines paired with a broader reopening of the economy has spurred a snapback in economic activity in recent months, but consumer demand has largely outpaced businesses’ ability to hire. In a race to increase headcount, many businesses have begun raising wages and offering incentives like hiring bonuses to attract applicants. The number of people who voluntarily left their jobs decreased to a still-lofty 3.6 million in May, as the quits rate dropped to 2.5%. Quits fell in nearly all industries, though they picked up slightly for restaurants and hotels. At the same time, the figures highlight an elevated number of Americans quitting their jobs to search out new opportunities. Whether seeking more flexible hours, increased pay or the ability to work remotely, the number of quits suggests workers are confident in their ability to find other employment. The enigma of a worker shortage at a time when millions of Americans remain out of work likely reflects a myriad of factors including child care challenges, lingering coronavirus concerns and expanded jobless benefits. Those factors will likely abate in the coming months though, supporting additional hiring. Accommodation and food service job openings increased by 89,000 in May, and by 81,000 in health care. Hiring at restaurants and hotels remained robust. Total hires decreased to 5.93 million in May from 6.01 million, while the hires rate eased to 4.1%. The decline was concentrated in construction, government and professional services. The total number of vacancies exceeded hires by 3.28 million in May, the highest in records to 2000. The latest jobs report showed payrolls increased 850,000 in June, the largest advance in 10 months, suggesting firms were having greater success a month later in recruiting workers to fill open positions. Still, other data underscore ongoing labor constraints. The employment measures for the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing and services surveys both contracted in June. A separate report from the National Federation of Independent Business showed small business job openings eased slightly in June, but the reading was second only to the record seen a month earlier. And on June 25, job search website Indeed had 33.6% more job postings than the pre-pandemic baseline." MY COMMENT Exactly as you would expect. the re-opening is happening but in spurts and starts. You can not just snap your finger and re-open the economy. PLUS.....many states are just starting to re-open. Those of us living in states that have been open for some time often forget and are not aware of the fact that many, many, states are STILL masked up and just starting to open up. BOTTOM LINE....it just takes time. I would guess another 6 months to get.....relatively....opened up. AND.....about a YEAR to get fully up and running for business and the economy. That is for the USA.....the rest of the world will take even longer....perhaps about 24 months.
I NOW see that the normal......at least lately....mid morning weakness is now backing off....with the DOW and the SP500 now being back in the green. HERE....is what is going on today. Stock market news live updates: Stocks trade mixed with S&P 500 at a record high, Treasury yields retreat https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-july-7-2021-221336927.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stocks were mixed on Wednesday, with the three major indexes fluctuating between small gains and losses. The S&P 500 gained to reach a record intraday high. The Dow was slightly higher. The Nasdaq set an intraday high and then fell, even as shares of major technology companies including Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) extended Tuesday's gains. Meanwhile, shares of Didi Global (DIDI) added to losses after shares sank 19% on Tuesday to close below their IPO price from last week, after Chinese regulators called for the removal of the ride-hailing service in app stores in the country. Treasury yields dropped along the long end of the curve, and the 10-year yield hovered around 1.34%, or the lowest level since February. U.S. crude oil prices rose, steadying near a six-and-a-half year high after declining on Tuesday, as some pundits speculated that some oil producers might begin to act alone to increase output after a breakdown in OPEC talks earlier this week. Others, however, were more skeptical. "This has been a long-time coming. [There's been] a lot of destruction in the energy patch here in the United States for the past three, four years. The pandemic kind of finished the job for most U.S. producers. OPEC really was in the driver's seat for most of this year," Dan Dicker, the Energy Word Founder, told Yahoo Finance. "With this country coming out of the pandemic so strongly and the rest of Europe and the rest of the world still to come out of the pandemic leads many traders to believe — and me to believe — we’re not done with the rally in crude oil." For equity investors, focus has centered on both the path forward for monetary policy – which has underpinned stocks' record rebound during the pandemic – and the pace of growth in corporate earnings. The Fed's June meeting minutes set for release Wednesday afternoon will help elucidate the central bank's thinking around when to tighten their currently ultra-accommodative monetary policies, from their crisis-era asset purchase program to near-zero benchmark interest rates. And next week, second-quarter corporate earnings results will kick off in earnest, showing the extent of the boost companies received following a major U.S. vaccination campaign and widespread reopenings. "The second half, honestly it's shaping up to be a continuation of what we've been seeing, but maybe a little moderation in these growth rates. If you look at earnings expectations for this quarter coming up, they're up about 60% year-over-year – earnings expectations have been absolutely soaring," Michael Antonelli, Baird PWM market strategist, told Yahoo Finance. "That rate will probably come down, but we can't be disappointed with that level of growth expectations and earnings. Forward PEs [price-earnings ratios] are still pretty high above 21. But I think honestly the second half is shaping up to be a continued reopening, continued expectations for better earnings, and a possible correction." "If you were to take any single year in history, you should expect about three 5% corrections and one 10% correction," he added. “We’ve had one 4% pullback. So, to me, the probability of another pullback … is high.” 10:40 a.m. ET: Job openings jumped to record high in May, while layoffs hit record low Job openings increased in May to a record level as labor supply shortage s continued to weigh on companies across industries. The Labor Department's monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary showed U.S. job openings increased to 9.209 million in May. This followed a downwardly revised 9.193 million in April, which was brought down from the 9.286 million previously reported. Consensus economists were looking for May's openings to reach 9.325 million, according to Bloomberg data. With labor scarcities curtailing the recovery in both manufacturing and services sectors, the frequency of company-driven layoffs fell further in May. The layoffs and discharge rate was at a record low of 0.9%. The voluntary quits rate also declined to 2.5% from April's 2.8%. 9:47 a.m. ET: Bank of America hedge fund, retail clients sold stocks on net last week amid record highs Bank of America clients sold stock on net last week as the S&P 500 jumped to new record highs and posted a seven-session winning streak, the firm said in its weekly equity client flows update. Hedge funds comprised the biggest sellers at an aggregate $1.4 billion and sold for a second straight week, Bank of America said. Retail clients, however, sold much more mutedly, with outflows of just $300 million. Corporate buybacks slowed as companies entered a quiet period ahead of earnings results, the firm added. However, for the year-to-date, buybacks are up 37% compared to the first half of 2020, though they are still down 22% compared to the first half of 2019." MY COMMENT MUCH of this little article is a re-hash of yesterday and many days before. We are in a little market time period of day after day that all follow a similar path. Earnings should shake us out of this little pattern that we have been in for the past 4-5 weeks. The good news is....during that same time we have been experiencing a nice little summer rally. Of course the Hedge Funds and some retail investors can NOT resist taking some profits during this time. That is one reason for the mid morning weakness each day.....profit taking. The DULL summer market continues for now. It is so nice when all the EAST COAST financial people and media are consumed with their summer rentals, party season, and vacation.
SORRY....I just have to continue to HARP on the DANGER of investing in CHINA and their government controlled companies. I cant believe people put their money in these companies. Is there that much LACK of awareness of the business climate and danger of investing in the WORLDS MUST BRUTAL TOTALITARIAN COMMUNIST DICTATORSHIP? Didi's IPO was a disaster. Here's why Chinese companies keep listing in the US https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/07/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "London (CNN Business) Talk about buyer's remorse. On Tuesday, shares in Didi crashed 20% after Chinese authorities opened an investigation into the ride-hailing giant that raised $4.4 billion last week in a massive IPO in New York. The botched IPO is bad news for investors. It's also bad for the New York Stock Exchange, which has been caught up in a campaign by US politicians who want to prevent Chinese companies from raising money in New York. The political fallout was swift. Sen. Marco Rubio, a Republican from Florida who is highly critical of the Chinese government, told the Financial Times that it was "reckless and irresponsible" for Didi to be allowed to sell shares. "Even if the stock rebounds, American investors still have no insight into the company's financial strength because the Chinese Communist party block US regulators from reviewing the books," Rubio told the UK newspaper. "That puts the investments of American retirees at risk and funnels desperately needed US dollars into Beijing." The political atmosphere around listings of US companies has been charged for months. Former President Donald Trump signed a law in November that bans Americans from investing in firms that the US government suspects are either owned or controlled by the Chinese military. That forced US exchanges to delist several Chinese companies, including China Mobile, China Telecom and China Unicom. President Joe Biden has followed the same path, expanding restrictions on US investment into Chinese companies with suspected military ties. The big question: Given the political backdrop, why do Chinese companies continue to pursue US listings? Analysts say there are several advantages to listing in New York: Superior liquidity A massive investor base Streamlined listing process For Chinese tech companies, a US listing is even more attractive because American investors are used to dealing with startups. And US exchanges accept a wider range of valuation methodologies. Hong Kong has tried to steal business from New York in recent years, encouraging Chinese companies to sell shares in the city in what have been dubbed "homecoming listings." But the pull of New York is strong. According to Jefferies, 10 Chinese companies completed US IPOs in 2020, representing over 20% of the market excluding SPACs — the highest percentage of US IPO issuance since 2010. Didi was a continuation of that trend. It was the biggest US IPO by a Chinese company since Alibaba's debut in 2014. End of an era? Pressure is not just coming from the United States. On Tuesday, China said it would increase regulation of overseas-listed companies, heaping additional pressure on Didi. The government said it will severely punish illegal securities activities, including fraudulent share issuance, embezzlement and market manipulation. It said securities fraud was prominent in overseas markets. Will the next Alibaba or Didi choose New York? Stay tuned." MY COMMENT They come here because....this is where the money is. They also come here because the investment banks can sell this garbage to American investors that have some BIZARRE FASCINATION with buying businesses in China. It is driven by GREED....pure and simple. The chance to get in on the ground floor and make a killing in the next BIG Chinese company. Unfortunately it is often the investor....that is the one being killed......yes there is a killing to be made....usually....YOU. I would bet that many of the people buying these companies LOVE to talk about fundamentals and business.....yet they put their money into a company that has ABSOLUTELY NO data of any sort that can be trusted or verified. I will NEVER buy a Chinese company......they are ALL....on some level owned by or controlled by the Chinese government. There is a BIG reason that much Chinese money FLEES to the West.....at the same time we have investors in this country rushing to put their money into China. OK.
Yup… Show is over.. nothing else to see here.. Back to our normal annual 10-15% returns accompanied by fake stories and doom/gloom hype. oh well… until the next HUGE crisis I guess… Let’s hope one comes here really soon (said in jest)
I FINALLY....got a chance to sit down and see what happened today in the markets. YES....another all time high for my account. AND.....9 of 10 positions nicely in the green today. Plus.....a beat of the SP500 by .22%. I am on a roll lately. My BIG winners today were the other side of my portfolio.....AAPL +1.8%.....COST, 1.46%....HD, 1.32%...and...HON +1%. My ONLY loser today was poor little NIVIDIA.....down by $13 or 1.58%......onward and upward from here. Tomorrow is day 8 of the count-down to the split.
As I was saying about China. Exclusive: China just gave a big F-U to America, hedge fund manager says https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/07/investing/china-didi-kyle-bass/index.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "New York (CNN Business) Kyle Bass, the hedge fund manager and outspoken critic of Beijing, says the timing of China's crackdown on ride-hailing app Didi is no coincidence. "The Chinese believe deeply in symbolism and numerology," Bass told CNN Business on Wednesday. "Banning an IPO that just went public in the US -- with US investor money -- on our Independence Day was basically a big F-U to the United States." Didi's shares crashed by 20% on Tuesday after Chinese regulators announced on July 4th they were banning the platform from app stores in the country because it poses cybersecurity risks and broke privacy laws. Didi, one of the largest ride-hailing companies in the world, raised $4.4 billion by listing its shares on the New York Stock Exchange on June 30. It was the biggest US IPO by a Chinese company since 2014. Just two days later, China launched a probe into Didi that escalated further last weekend. "They knew this was going public. They knew they were going to ban it from app stores and shut it down," said Bass, the founder and chief investment officer of Hayman Capital. "Nothing happens without the behest and pleasure of [Chinese President] Xi Jinping." The fact that the crackdown by China wasn't announced until after Didi went public cost some American investors dearly. Didi is extremely reliant on its home market for revenue. The company's market value fell to $57 billion on Wednesday, down from nearly $70 billion the day it went public. However, unnamed sources told The Wall Street Journal that China's cybersecurity watchdog suggested to Didi that it delay its IPO. In a statement on Sunday, Didi said it will "strive to rectify any problems, improve its risk prevention awareness and technological capabilities, protect users' privacy and data security, and continue to provide secure and convenient services to its users." 'Send the money back to investors' Bass, who successfully bet on the collapse of the US housing market prior to the Great Recession, has become a vocal opponent of the Chinese Communist Party. In the interview, he called on US financial regulators to do more to protect American investors from the whims of Chinese regulators. Specifically, Bass urged the Securities and Exchange Commission to allow investors who bought Didi shares to rescind the transaction and recover their money. He pointed to federal securities laws that allow for rescission if buyers of shares did not know about a misstatement or omission at the time of the purchase. It's not clear if that would apply in this case. "Send the money back to investors," Bass said. "It was clearly sold under false pretenses, therefore fraudulently." Bass criticized the SEC more broadly for allowing Chinese companies to list shares on US exchanges even though those firms don't need to submit to US auditing standards. "It's crazy," he said. "The SEC's job is to protect investors. The SEC did not respond to requests for comment. Chinese stocks under pressure China's crackdown goes beyond Didi. Chinese authorities announced Monday it was launching probes into other US-listed tech companies, including truck-hailing platforms Yunmanman and Huochebang as well as job listing site Boss Zhipin. All three recently went public in the United States. As a result of the investigations, new users can't register for these apps. The Invesco Golden Dragon China ETF (PGJ), which tracks the performance of US-listed Chinese stocks, has lost more than one-third of its value since February. The botched IPO of Didi draws further attention to the risks facing US investors. That's despite recent restrictions enacted by Washington, including a law that President Donald Trump signed last year that bans Americans from investing in firms that the US government suspects are either owned or controlled by the Chinese military. Trump also signed a law that would kick Chinese companies off US exchanges if they fail to comply with US auditing standards for three years in a row. "That basically says Chinese companies can rape and pillage American investors for the next three years. And we just saw the net result," Bass said. The FOMO factor Republican Senator Marco Rubio told the Financial Times that it was "reckless and irresponsible" for Didi to be allowed to sell shares. "Even if the stock rebounds, American investors still have no insight into the company's financial strength because the Chinese Communist party block US regulators from reviewing the books," Rubio told the UK newspaper. "That puts the investments of American retirees at risk and funnels desperately needed US dollars into Beijing." Bass slammed brokers, fund managers and institutional investors for buying US-listed Chinese IPOs despite concerns about the sanctity of their financial records. "You can't possibly know if the numbers they are giving you are true. If you lose money, you should lose your job," said Bass. Yet many investors don't want to miss out on the potential of monster gains if those stocks skyrocket, also known as FOMO, or fear of missing out. "FOMO will get the most gullible people," Bass said. "And maybe they should lose their money. If you want to light your money on fire, then go do it."" MY COMMENT ABSOLUTELY AGREE. Want to throw your money away.....feel free.
This is the....PAST.....but I was out of touch all day. US STOCKS-S&P 500, Nasdaq post record closing highs after Fed minutes https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-stocks-p-500-nasdaq-204445582.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "NEW YORK, July 7 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks ended higher on Wednesday and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq notched record closing highs after minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting indicated officials may not be ready yet to move on tightening policy. According to the minutes of the U.S. central bank's June policy meeting, Fed officials felt substantial further progress on the economic recovery "was generally seen as not having yet been met," but agreed they should be poised to act if inflation or other risks materialized. "I read this as effectively a dovish set of notes simply because they don't feel as a group that they have enough certainty around the situation to make any changes at all," said Brad McMillan, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network in Waltham, Massachusetts. Treasury yields edged lower following the Fed minutes, while stocks mostly edged higher. The minutes reflected a divided Fed wrestling with new inflation risks but still relatively high unemployment. After its meeting and statement last month, investors began to anticipate the Fed would move more quickly to tighten than previously expected. Wall Street has been concerned about inflation, with investors moving between economy-linked value stocks and growth names in the past few sessions. Both growth and value stocks gained on Wednesday, while industrials and materials led S&P 500 sector gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 104.42 points, or 0.3%, to 34,681.79, the S&P 500 gained 14.59 points, or 0.34%, to 4,358.13 and the Nasdaq Composite added 1.42 points, or 0.01%, to 14,665.06. China's market regulator said it has fined a number of internet companies including Didi Global, Tencent and Alibaba for failing to report earlier merger and acquisition deals for approval. U.S.-listed shares of Didi fell 4.6%, adding to a nearly 20% slump on Tuesday. Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.02-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.92-to-1 ratio favored decliners. The S&P 500 posted 71 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 84 new highs and 121 new lows. Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.04 billion shares, compared with the 10.7 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days." MY COMMENT YES....a nice day today.....in spite of the FED. Although....anyone with any sort of rationality....knew ahead of time what the FED was going to say. Interesting that DECLINING issues were leading the NYSE and the NASDAQ. Looks like the gains today were NOT so broad. so....I guess I was LUCKY to see 9 of my 10 stocks well into the green today.
AND....this is the future.......tomorrow Jobless claims preview: New filings likely fell to pandemic-era low of 350,000 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/weekly-jobless-claims-week-ended-july-3-2021-173053034.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "New weekly jobless claims are expected to set a new pandemic-era low for a second straight week, trending lower after a brief jump in June. The Department of Labor is set to release its weekly report on new jobless claims Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here are the main metrics expected from the report, compared to consensus data compiled by Bloomberg: Initial jobless claims, week ended July 3: 350,000 expected vs. 364,000 during prior week Continuing claims, week ended June 26: 3.350 million expected vs. 3.469 million during prior week Initial unemployment claims have been on the decline for months now, as vaccinations enabled re-openings that in turn fueled a need for workers across industries to keep up with consumer demand. New jobless claims are now coming in at about half the level from the beginning of 2021, and have plummeted compared to the more than 1 million claims coming in per week this time last year. But Americans are still filing more first-time unemployment claims than they did in 2019, when new claims averaged just over 200,000 per week. And an elevated nearly 14.7 million Americans were still claiming some form of either state or federal unemployment benefits as of mid-June. At the same time, companies have kept reporting labor supply challenges, even as millions of individuals remain on the sidelines of the workforce. The Labor Department reported Wednesday that job openings rose to a record 9.2 million in May, the latest date for which data is available. And the employment subindices in the Institute for Supply Management's services and manufacturing reports slid into contractionary territory for the first time in months in June, reflecting the strain from labor scarcities. "This has been a recession like no other with the record levels of job openings calling into question the claims of Washington policy officials that additional stimulus is still needed to aid the recovery," Chris Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBonds, wrote in an email on Wednesday. "We are faced with two conflicting data sources one that says millions are unemployed and still out of work from the recession and the other saying job openings are in the millions, record levels which we ordinarily only see when the economy is experiencing a boom." Many economists are bracing for a summer of choppy labor market data, with seasonal adjustments compared to last year's pandemic-impacted reports and the early phase-out of federal enhanced unemployment benefits in some states creating bumpiness in the data. Twenty-six states have opted to end federal unemployment assistance before the official early September expiration date. These early program ends began June 12 and will continue on a staggered basis through early August. "Parsing through the data for genuine improvement from reopening versus suspension of benefits effects will be difficult," Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist for HFE Economics, wrote in a note. "Enhanced benefits have been widely cited as a reason for labor shortages that a range of companies continue. to report. But those shortages appear to have been less of an issue in June, evident in the 850K rise in payrolls."" MY COMMENT The employment and jobs markets are DISRUPTED at the moment. Totally DISTORTED by the policies put in place during the pandemic. It is just going to take time to get back to a somewhat normal situation in the labor and jobs markets. This little report.....is about as BIG as it gets tomorrow. so the markets will just be left to their own devices. With NOTHING going on tomorrow....the direction of the markets should be UP. BUT...."should be" and reality are often two different things. We do at least have a.......wide open runway.......to close out the week nicely positive over the next couple of days.
Futures are red red red Looks like it’s time for the market to take back all its gains again. just like W’s old friend used to tell him - “man, I don’t know how you make money in the stock market- it’s always up and down”
HEY......I thought anything that indicated NO INFLATION was good......and....anything that would keep the FED steady and doing nothing was a good thing. I guess not. Jobless claims: Another 373,000 individuals filed new unemployment claims last week https://finance.yahoo.com/news/weekly-jobless-claims-week-ended-july-3-2021-173053034.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "New weekly jobless claims unexpectedly ticked higher last week in another sign of the labor market's choppy recovery. The Department of Labor released its weekly report on new jobless claims Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here were the main metrics from the report, compared to consensus data compiled by Bloomberg: Initial jobless claims, week ended July 3: 373,000 vs. 350,000 expected and a revised 371,000 during prior week Continuing claims, week ended June 26: 3.339 million vs. 3.350 million expected and a revised 3.484 million during prior week Despite the past week's slight bump higher, initial unemployment claims have been on the decline for months now, as vaccinations enabled re-openings that in turn fueled a need for workers across industries to keep up with consumer demand. New jobless claims are now coming in at about half the level from the beginning of 2021, and have plummeted compared to the more than 1 million claims coming in per week this time last year. "The consensus ignored the tendency for unadjusted claims to rise in weeks when July 4 falls on a Sunday, so the risk was always to the upside. But this is noise, not signal," Ian Shepherdson, chief economist for Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in an email. "The seasonal adjustments are struggling simultaneously with the July 4 holiday period and the annual automakers’ retooling shutdowns, which can make the headline numbers even more volatile than usual. The noise will persist through late July, but we have no doubt that the underlying trend will remain downwards." But Americans are still filing more first-time unemployment claims than they did in 2019, when new claims averaged just over 200,000 per week. And an elevated nearly 14.2 million Americans were still claiming some form of either state or federal unemployment benefits as of the week ended June 19. At the same time, companies have kept reporting labor supply challenges, even as millions of individuals remain on the sidelines of the workforce. The Labor Department reported Wednesday that job openings rose to a record 9.2 million in May, the latest date for which data is available. And the employment subindices in the Institute for Supply Management's services and manufacturing reports slid into contractionary territory for the first time in months in June, reflecting the strain from labor scarcities. "This has been a recession like no other with the record levels of job openings calling into question the claims of Washington policy officials that additional stimulus is still needed to aid the recovery," Chris Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBonds, wrote in an email on Wednesday. "We are faced with two conflicting data sources one that says millions are unemployed and still out of work from the recession and the other saying job openings are in the millions, record levels which we ordinarily only see when the economy is experiencing a boom." Many economists are bracing for a summer of choppy labor market data, with seasonal adjustments compared to last year's pandemic-impacted reports and the early phase-out of federal enhanced unemployment benefits in some states creating bumpiness in the data. Twenty-six states have opted to end federal unemployment assistance before the official early September expiration date. These early program ends began June 12 and will continue on a staggered basis through early August. "Parsing through the data for genuine improvement from reopening versus suspension of benefits effects will be difficult," Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist for HFE Economics, wrote in a note Thursday. "Enhanced benefits have been widely cited as a reason for labor shortages that a range of companies continue to report. But those shortages appear to have been less of an issue in June, evident in the 850K rise in payrolls." State-by-state unemployment Slightly more than half of U.S. states reported net declines in new jobless claims last week. Puerto Rico's new jobless claims fell by 4,300 on an unadjusted basis, followed by Oklahoma with a. drop of nearly 3,700. On the other hand, Pennsylvania saw new claims increased by 5,100, while those in New York were up by nearly. 4,600. California and Colorado's new claims each increased by more than 2,000 last week. The states and territories of Rhode Island, Puerto Rico and Nevada posted the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended June 19. Rhode Island's came in at 4.6%, Puerto Rico's at 4.5% and Nevada's at 4.4%. The metric captures the number of claimants of unemployment benefits to the total state population. The national insured unemployment rate stood at 2.5% for mid-June." MY COMMENT Since when do the "economists" EVER get any of these wild ass predictions right. Hardly ever.......they are virtually WORTHLESS. AND....as i have often said....the job markets and employment will start to get back to normal when you END the rewards for NOT working. There is ONE simple reason for ALL the jobs and unemployment data......PAYING people not to work. BUT.....CELEBRATE.....this is good news for INFLATION and keeping the FED doing nothing. the ACTUAL reason that the markets are doing what they are doing today......they JUST WANT TO. Anyone in the financial industry....that has a brain......and these are really smart people....knows that this report today is really MEANINGLESS and is simply a single day or two BLIP.
WELL....another NO INFLATION indicator....a big one. The Ten Year Treasury yield is at......GASP......1.283%. GOSH.....who would have thought this was possible. It is amazing that ALL the financial experts and media a few months ago were telling us in FRANTIC SHOUTING and PANIC that rates were going to go out of control and rocket UP. I guess not. The bottom line with ALL this stuff......never trust or react to any of the short term SHOUTING and TURMOIL. It usually has NO basis in fact. My CONTINUED and CONSTANT view......the big danger continues to be WORLD WIDE DEFLATION......and.....the policies and regulation and tax changes that our government is attempting to put in place....which will strongly contribute to and drive DEFLATION and STAGNATION. We have a PERFECT EXAMPLE of what those policies WILL result in.....the time period from 2009 to 2016.....when the general economy was stuck in a mild deflationary depression and we could not get unemployment down for eight years. During that same time the world was even more of a MONETARY MESS and caught up in more significant deflation that the USA. If you look back over the past 35 years.....we have NOT had an inflation problem....the much more significant world wide issue was DEFLATION.....although for some reason we NEVER talk about it.
BUT....regardless of the above couple of posts....the GENERAL ECONOMY is NOT the stock markets or business. We have seen many times....a bad general economy and unemployment.......usually caused by governments INTENTIONAL STUPIDITY....and....at the same time a very nice stock market.
NOTICE how......ten year yields go UP...and that is BAD for big tech. Yields go DOWN...that is bad for big tech. Yeah, right. Neither one is really relevant......the LEADING companies are going to be the leading companies. Fundamentals are going to continue to RULE. There is an ACTUAL basis to investing....it is called BUSINESS SUCCESS....which is reflected in the Fundamentals. On the topic of DEFLATION......I invite you to take a look at interest rates in GERMANY. TEN YEARS....are NEGATIVE.
HERE IS the reason for the little......media driven......panic...today. Stock market news live updates: Stocks sink as concerns over economic recovery resurge https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-july-8-2021-222010229.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stocks sank Thursday to give back gains after a record-setting session, with investors nervously eyeing signs that the economic recovery might get derailed. The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq were each off by more than 1%. This marked the first time since June that the S&P 500 opened more than 1% lower. A day earlier, the blue-chip index rose to a record closing high for the eighth time in the last nine sessions as concerns over a near-term monetary policy adjustment and sustainably high inflation abated. The Dow, which is heavy in cyclical and value stocks that stand to benefit from a strong economic recovery, underperformed against those the other two major indexes. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield sank further to hover around 1.29%, with the dip in rates reflecting both easing inflation expectations but also uncertainty over the sustainability over the recovery. Concerns over the global recovery also increased after Japan proposed re-instituting a state of emergency ahead of the Tokyo Olympics due to recent COVID-19 surges. "People have. some concerns about how the Delta variant is going to play out in the economy, and we don't know what's going to happen to the spending with consumers once unemployment benefits run out in the September time frame," Julie Biel, Kayne Anderson Rudnick portfolio manager, told Yahoo Finance on Thursday. "I think there's a lot of uncertainty, and how I would characterize this rally is, it is kind of a cynical rally, where people don't necessarily feel as strongly about the economy, but they feel they have to stay invested. And so I think the fact that it is in this mindset means that it could pull back very quickly. So I would expect more volatility going forward." Recent data on the economic recovery has been mixed, with job openings rising to yet another record high in May and labor scarcities curbing the pace of the rebound across industries. Thursday's jobless claims report showed new weekly filings unexpectedly increased, with the number of new filers and total claimants still highly elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels. The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes underscored these and other lingering economic concerns and showed that central bank officials still saw some downside risk to the recovery that warranted their asset purchases and ultra-low interest rates to remain for the time being. As the Federal Open Market Committee's minutes said, "The Committee's standard of 'substantial further progress' was generally seen as not having yet been met, though participants expected progress to continue." "The minutes do not suggest an imminent shift in policy. In contrast to the market’s hawkish interpretation of the June meeting and Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the minutes show a more dovish Committee," Steven Ricchiuto, U.S. chief economist for Mizuho Securities, wrote in an email. "This is a balanced Committee that is planning in the face of an uncertain outlook." 9:07 a.m. ET: New jobless claims unexpectedly increased last week The number of individuals filing new jobless claims unexpectedly rose during the week ended July 3, with the move higher reflecting a still-choppy recovery in the U.S. labor market. Initial jobless claims totaled 373,000 last week, coming in above the pandemic-era low of 350,000 expected. The prior week's new claims were also revised up slightly to 371,000. Continuing jobless claims, reported on a one-week lag, were slightly lower than expected for the week ended June 26, totaling 3.339 million versus the 3.35 million anticipated. 7:25 a.m. ET Thursday: Stock futures sink as concerns over COVID variants, economic recovery resurge" MY COMMENT You cant fight the TAPE and you cant fight STUPID. ALL you can do it simply IGNORE this sort of open and day. It is what it is.......MEANINGLESS. The actual REALITY is the vast majority of INVESTORS are doing nothing. No one is selling out their IRA. No one is selling out their 401K. There are....at the moment.....MILLIONS and MILLIONS of new traders/gamblers. The average account among the 18 or so million new accounts at Robinhood is about $250. "The average Robinhood user is 31 years old and has a median $240 account balance." https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...nformed-equity-market-participant-11615343610 Other sites say the average account MIGHT be a bit higher: "The average account size is about $3,500, according to market news site Business of Apps, compared to $100,000 for E-Trade and $240,000 for Schwab." https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/robinhood-ipo/ The BOTTOM LINE.....the DAILY short term markets....do NOT reflect the ACTUAL mood and confidence of the REAL investor. Like most things....there is a HUGE SILENT MAJORITY of people that are the REAL guts of the markets. Those people are NOT jumping in and out day to day in panic and elation.......manic/depressive investing. They simply plug away and invest for the long term. SO...... I continue to be fully invested for the long term as usual.
HOW DARE the markets.......disrupting my little NVIDIA stock split count-down. Shame on them. TODAY is day 8 of the final count-down. We have tomorrow.....five days next week.....and the Monday after next. Tuesday July 20 is day "0". This little.....BUMP....has reduced my stock split trade profit to $6684.......on my 30/35 shares that I bought to play the stock split on May 21, 2021. The current price is $796.....RED for the day today.....of course.
I just got around to looking at my account today. I was SURPRISED to see a couple of holdings in the green. I assumed that it would be red across the board. NIKE was up by 0.05% and COSTCO was up by 0.20%. That was it. EVERY little bit helps. The ONLY other bright spot I could see was the fact that....so far....I am very slightly outperforming the SP500. Just one of those days........a shallow summer market....combined with some fear mongering and panic...that is AMPLIFIED.....by the slow and shallow summer action....or lack of action.
At least the BIG POSITIVE for the moment....due to the Ten Year yield being at 1.294%......the 30 year MORTGAGE rates. Houses are very affordable in terms of payment....if you can find one to buy.
WELL....that was a wild one today. A DOWN day....but there did not seem to be much of anything behind it....and not a lot of CONVICTION. A DOWN-WAFFLE day. I ended up moderately in the red. BUT....I did manage to beat the SP500 by 0.34%....so that was a bright spot. I had 3 of 10 holdings in the green......AMZN, +0.94%....NKE, +0.29%.....and.....COST, 0.61%. Not a bad finish to a day that could have snowballed out of control.....but did not. My NVIDIA ended up DOWN by $18.76 or (-2.30%) for the day. There was a little come-back in the last ten minutes of trading to end the day at $796. I am STILL holding my 30/35 share...... stock split trade.....with a profit after today of $6579. HOPE to see buyers drive the price up tomorrow....if we can escape from the negativity of today. After today....there are NOW 7 days left till the NEW split shares begin to trade on July 20, 2021. GOOD RIDDANCE.......to today.
AND....we have been told all this time that INFLATION was the problem..... Analysis - A fine mess: Weak inflation prompts a global central bank reset https://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysis-fine-mess-weak-inflation-172140933.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "WASHINGTON (Reuters) - It is an article of faith among central bankers that the decisions they make about how much money to create and what interest rate to charge for it will determine the rate of inflation - at least over moderate lengths of time. For more than a decade that belief has been undermined by inflation that has remained weak despite trillions of dollars pumped into the world's biggest economies through quantitative easing programs and ultra-low interest rates. That prompted the top central banks to review how they do business, and on Thursday the European Central Bank joined the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan in pursuing an ambitious reset in hopes of reasserting control. Graphic: The world's inflation problem - https://graphics.reuters.com/CENBANKS-INFLATION/TARGET/jznvnymbxpl/chart.png The ECB's new framework, in contemplating the occasional "transitory period" when inflation exceeds its formal 2% target in hopes of ensuring that target is met over time, is a step short of the more explicit promise the U.S. central bank made last year to encourage periods of high inflation to offset years when price increases were too weak. But their shared diagnosis paints a similarly troubling picture of a developed world seemingly set in a rut of slow economic growth, low productivity, aging populations, and perennially weak inflation that may be difficult to coax higher. "The euro area economy and the global economy have been undergoing profound structural changes," the ECB said in announcing its new framework, echoing language used by Fed officials in announcing their new strategy last year. "Declining trend growth, which can be linked to slower productivity growth and demographic factors, and the legacy of the global financial crisis have driven down equilibrium real interest rates." That, in turn, has given the ECB less room to use interest rate policy alone to help boost economic activity, and forced it, like the Fed, to resort more often to other measures - bond-buying for example - when economic conditions weaken. The BOJ led the way down that path early this century. The aims of the new U.S. and European inflation strategies, and those pursued so far unsuccessfully in Japan, are the same: Get the pace of price increases high enough so inflation-adjusted interest rates can also increase, giving the central banks room to use rate cuts as their main policy tool in times of stress. CHASING AN AVERAGE The concept of using inflation averaging has been slow to evolve. All three central banks at first adopted simple inflation targets of 2%, trusting that they understood inflation dynamics well enough to hit that level and stay there. They didn't. Over time, they realized that between technology, globalization, demographics and other factors, inflation had become difficult to budge. Even more problematic, the continued "misses" against a well-publicized target risked resetting public expectations that inflation would remain weak. Research by current and former Fed officials raised the stakes. They found that in a situation where equilibrium interest rates were low and central banks were repeatedly forced to cut their policy rates to near zero, inflation expectations would fall - permanently, a damaging outcome that would cement weak prices, wages, and growth as the norm. Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida, whose earlier academic research affirmed the advantages of simple inflation targeting, detailed this past January how subsequent studies by New York Fed President John Williams and others concluded more aggressive approaches were needed when interest rates were expected to keep collapsing to zero. Interest rates stuck near zero "tend to deliver inflation expectations that, in each business cycle, become anchored at a level below the target," Clarida said in a presentation to Stanford University's Hoover Institution. "It can open up the risk of the downward spiral in both actual and expected inflation that has been observed in some other major economies." 'HISTORIC SHIFT' The Fed's new policy has been in place for just over 10 months. Its experience shows the challenges the ECB now faces. The coronavirus pandemic and subsequent economic reopening have complicated the inflation outlook, with supply bottlenecks driving up prices more than - and perhaps for longer than - anticipated and a labor squeeze starting to drive up workers' pay. That has led to some new hawkish voices inside the Fed and hints at faster interest rate hikes from the U.S. central bank despite its stated promise to let inflation run above target "for some time." With the Fed yet to prove its new design in practice, bond markets have noticed. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note, far from anticipating higher inflation and growth, has been falling, and on Thursday hit 1.25%, the lowest level since mid-February and a drop of nearly half a percentage point from mid-May. As with the Fed, the ECB will have to translate its new strategy into policies that work. The new strategy marks "a historic shift for the ECB," by acknowledging inflation may need to exceed 2% at some point, wrote Andrew Kenningham, chief Europe economist for Capital Economics. But it "will not make it easy for the ECB to escape from the grips of low inflation."" MY COMMENT Japan and Europe have been in a deflationary depression for years. Japan for over 20 years....Europe for at least 12 years. Central economic planing, Socialism, rejection of capitalism, etc, etc, etc. Think France, Greece, and the rest of the non-productive countries that are perpetually STUCK in stagnant economies. The countries that we....for some reason....are RACING to EMULATE. I have argued for the past 25 years with INFLATION FEAR MONGERS.....on various message boards.... about the fact that the OPPOSITE is the problem....deflation. NOW.....I dont even bother.....it never changes.....the constant opinions that we are going to see out of control inflation. BUT....it NEVER happens. The more government tries to control and guide the economy....the worse and more ingrained the DEFLATION becomes. Be sure to "click" on the link to the graph above and look at the data.....the issue has not been inflation.
