The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,910
    Likes Received:
    5,035
    YEA......EARNINGS time is here....starting next week. Not that they matter.....as often GREAT earnings are followed by the company stock going down as the earnings get NIT-PICKED to death. The BANKS will start things off as usual.

    Investors eager for earnings amid growth concerns

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/investors-eager-earnings-amid-growth-175554323.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "NEW YORK (Reuters) - Investors are looking to U.S. companies' upcoming quarterly results and forecasts about the recovery in the second half of 2021 as some worry that the recent economic surge is already waning.

    U.S. Treasuries rallied sharply this week on fears that economic growth may slow in the second half, pushing yields to levels not seen since February. On the stock market, there was a selloff in financials, energy and other so-called value shares tied to the recovery.

    A massive jump in second quarter earnings is expected to mark a peak for U.S. earnings growth and the recovery from last year's pandemic-induced profit collapse. S&P 500 earnings are estimated to have surged 65.8% from a year earlier, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.

    That's on track to be the biggest percentage growth since the fourth quarter of 2009 following the Great Financial Crisis, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.

    Starting Tuesday, earnings reports are due from JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and other big banks, kicking off the quarterly results season. They could give early clues on the economy and stocks tied to growth.

    Most big U.S. banks are expected to report a big rebound in quarterly profits even with trading income falling and revenue stalling on low interest rates and weak demand.

    Investors are also eager to assess whether earnings will support Wall Street's run higher, with the S&P 500 up roughly 16% for the year so far. Many market watchers say the expected surge in earnings this year is a big reason for the market's strong performance.

    Yet this week's weaker-than-expected report on U.S. jobless claims and the spread of the Delta coronavirus variant added to investor questions about the economic re-opening.

    "For this earnings season, what investors will want to see and what we expect is that the earnings trend for the value side is still intact, to give support to (the view) it's too early to leave this trade. And that starts with the banks next week," said Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Advisory Services.

    Many investors including Lerner remained bullish on economically sensitive sectors like energy, financials and industrials that are considered value trades because of years of underperformance.The S&P 500 value index is down for the week. Over the same period, the S&P 500 growth index - known for companies with upward momentum behind them - is higher, reflecting an advance in technology shares that were helped by the fall in the benchmark 10-year note yields.

    Gary Bradshaw, portfolio manager at Hodges Capital Management in Dallas, Texas, who likes energy, materials, restaurants and some retailers, said while the picture is not all perfect across all companies, earnings season should confirm the strength in the economy.

    "It's not 100% rosy," he said, but "we would expect earnings to be extremely strong, and so we're optimistic about the market."

    Among sectors, industrials, consumer discretionary, energy and materials are expected to post the biggest year-over-year profit gains, with industrials estimated up more than 500%, based on Refinitiv's data.

    Second-quarter earnings estimates are likely still too low, Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, wrote in a note this week.

    As a result, estimates for 2021 overall and for 2022 "should continue to increase as we get Q2 financial reports," and that could give investors more confidence that earnings should support the market going into next year, he wrote.

    Also on the radar will be what companies are doing to pass on price increases they may be grappling with from raw materials, said Sameer Samana, senior global market strategist at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute. Signs of these pressures have come up in economic data in recent months.

    Other companies due to report next week include Delta Air Lines, UnitedHealth Group and Kansas City Southern."

    MY COMMENT

    YES....earnings should be GREAT. Possibly...historic.

    This is the second article that I have seen lately that TRIES to make a case that earnings will be BIG due to the historic collapse of earnings due to the pandemic. Seems like my memory is that earnings at this time last year were ALSO....way above expectations. We were in FULL ON BULL MARKET at this time last year.....contrary to what everyone told us was going to happen.

    Here is the TRUTH of second quarter earnings in July and August last year....2020.

    https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-august-7-2020

    From the article:

    "To date, 89% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported actual results for Q2 2020. In terms of earnings, the percentage of companies reporting actual EPS above estimates (83%) is above the five-year average. If 83% is the final percentage for the quarter, it will mark the highest percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting a positive EPS surprise since FactSet began tracking this metric in 2008. In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 22.4% above the estimates, which is also above the five-year average. If 22.4% is the final percentage for the quarter, it will mark the largest earnings surprise percentage reported by the index since FactSet began tracking this metric in 2008. In terms of sales, the percentage of companies reporting actual sales above estimates (64%) is above the five-year average. In aggregate, companies are reporting sales that are 1.6% above estimates, which is also above the five-year average."

    MY COMMENT

    YES....EPS were lower last year....but....the earnings GREATLY EXCEEDED all expectations. We DEFINITELY have another YEAR to go for full re-opening to happen....and....at least two years for the full re-opening outside the USA.

    Keep in mind that VERY FEW....if any...of the national companies that will report earnings closed due to the pandemic. From what I saw...NEARLY ALL...the big companies stayed FULLY OPEN. It was the "little" companies and businesses, and local businesses, gyms, churches, restaurants, salons, etc, etc,.......that got HAMMERED by the totally DISCRIMINATORY and RIDICULOUS closure orders from state and local government. SO.....it is not like the current earnings are a comparison to a time when these companies were closed or reduced in their operations.
     
  2. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,910
    Likes Received:
    5,035
    This little letter to the editor is EXACTLY on point. In the end...remote, video work is BAD for the employer and BAD for the employee. Over the long run it is going to TOTALLY destroy ANY relationship between company and employee. In fact...I would guess it will lead to EVERY employee except certain elites being contract workers. The end result will be about like all the results we are now seeing from student testing.......after a year of remote school learning.....TOTAL DISASTER.
    Employers Must Resist Remote Work’s Allure
    It will strain and weaken the culture and values of the company.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/employers-must-resist-remote-works-allure-11625841204?mod=itp_wsj

    "The move by white-collar employers to create more balanced telecommuting policies is long overdue (“Remote Work Is the New Signing Bonus,” Exchange, June 26). I appreciate the desire to reduce time wasted commuting, but employers in industries such as software and biotechnology go fully remote at their peril if they emphasize real-estate savings or employee satisfaction over innovation and effectiveness. What happens to brainstorming when people aren’t in the same room? Or difficult cases of tech support, when you can’t wander down the hall to find the engineer?

    Employees hired in the past 15 months have bypassed the acculturation and after-hours bonding essential to team cohesion. An innovative company is more than a group of automatons performing individual tasks. Apple and Adobe have it just right: a middle ground that reduces needless commuting while fostering the creativity and teamwork made possible by face-to-face interaction."

    MY COMMENT

    It is the employee that will.......be made irrelevant...by this trend if it catches on and becomes the norm. It will end up as yet another example of something that sounds good....but in reality....has massive NEGATIVE IMPACT on those that it was supposed to be good for.

    As a company shareholder/owner and former business owner for 22+ years....I am TOTALLY opposed to this trend.
     
  3. gtrudeau88

    gtrudeau88 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 8, 2020
    Messages:
    713
    Likes Received:
    266
    Some companies will go back to in office but many will stay with the new trend. If I'm leasing 100,000 sq ft of space and I find that I can reduce the leased space to 35,000 sq ft by keeping people at home, even if I have to spend x for zoom meetings, I may very well consider it. I maybe can require employees to come in to the office one day a week to maintain a semblance of cohesion.

    It need not be a total disaster. People have been working 1-2 days a week from home for years. I did that when I was in IT.

    Company loyalty is a thing of the past anyway. People know they exist for the company's pleasure and can be terminated at any time for no reason. I think cohesiveness between employee and company is overrated.
     
  4. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 21, 2017
    Messages:
    1,588
    Likes Received:
    1,224
    i tend to agree with @WXYZ in post 6544. thinking back over the many years i've worked in corporate offices and now working remotely for over a year due to covid, i truly miss the human interaction. most importantly, the face to face networking has been key to my moving laterally and upwardly between different departments. i'm likely going into the final turn of the home stretch of the "day job" and will pursue activities more dear to my heart after the finish line, but were i just starting out on the corporate marathon working remotely would seem to limit my opportunities.
     
  5. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2018
    Messages:
    4,596
    Likes Received:
    2,803
    Quite a bit of study has gone into WFH.

    There are some people who work just as well from home. Many others don't work at all when they are at home.

    The more progressive WFH policies I've seen suggest allowing up to roughly 40% of the workforce to stay at home. Allowing anyone who wants to, to work from home, would be a death knell for a company.
     
  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,910
    Likes Received:
    5,035
    Ok.....here we go....EARNINGS starts this week. Perhaps we will see a RARE market time period when fundamentals really matter over the short term day to day....DRAMA.

    Earnings season kicks off, CPI and retail sales: What to know this week

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/earnings-season-kicks-off-what-to-know-this-week-192134778.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Investors are gearing up for a busy week, with the start of second-quarter earnings season and an onslaught of new economic data on deck.

    The prospects of another strong quarter for corporate earnings results have been one of the major factors underpinning stocks' march to new highs as of late.S&P 500 earnings in aggregate are expected to grow by 64% for the second quarter, which would mark the fastest increase since the fourth quarter of 2009, according to FactSet data.

    "Corporate earnings results have far exceeded expectations so far this year with S&P 500 companies posting record levels of EPS growth, surprises, and beat rates during the first quarter, and 2021 and 2022. annual estimates being revised higher by analysts at a blistering pace as the economic recovery continues to gain steam," BMO Capital Markets strategist Brian Belski wrote in a note last week.

    "As we enter the second half of the year, we believe companies will continue to build on the earnings recovery displayed in recent quarters, as more areas of the economy adapt and get closer to normal levels of activity throughout the year," he added.

    As usual, the big banks will be the first major group to report quarterly results. Expectations are exceptionally high for the financial sector, which has come in at the third-best performing S&P 500 sector so far for the year-to-date, topped only by the energy and real estate sectors. And Wall Street has struck an increasingly more upbeat tone on earnings potential for this sector over the past several months, upwardly revising the consensus outlook for these companies' earnings.

    "The Financials sector has recorded the third-largest percentage increase in estimated (dollar-level) earnings of all 11 sectors since the start of the quarter at 11.5% (to $69.8 billion from $62.7 billion)," FactSet's John Butters said in a note. "As a result, the estimated earnings growth rate for this sector has risen to 119.5% from 96.9% during this time."

    Banks are heading into second-quarter results following a strong start to the year. JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) each handily exceeded analyst estimates in the first quarter, when the start of the economic recovery and roaring market activity helped drive strong trading and investment banking results. With stocks rising to record highs and the IPO market posting its busiest month since 2000 in June, both trading and investment banking are set to be strong points yet again for the bulge-bracket banks.

    For the April through June quarter, economic activity picked up even further, with this growth likely helping to further serve as a tailwind for banks' businesses. At the same time, however, interest rates have come down from a year-to-date high in March, which will likely pressure banks' all-important net interest income, or the profit derived from core lending practices. The benchmark U.S. Treasury yield rose to as high as 1.77% in late March before tumbling to around 1.35% as of Friday.

    So far, banks have been split about the path for loan growth in the second half of the year given uncertainty around the pace of the economic recovery after an initial reopening surge.

    According to Deutsche Bank analyst Matt O'Connor, there are still a number of positive drivers for loan growth left this year.

    "Consumer stimulus peaked in March/April and should decline meaningfully during 3Q21," O'Connor wrote. in a note. "Several states didn't fully reopen until near the end of 2Q, including California and New York (a combined 15-20% of the U.S. population and even greater amount of the overall U.S. economy). As activity increases, spending and borrowing should as well."

    Consumer price index, retail sales
    In addition to the start of earnings season, a couple of closely watched economic data points are due for release this week.

    The Consumer Price Index (CPI) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics will show the extent of price increases for consumers in June as supply chain bottlenecks and labor scarcities weigh on the economic recovery and push inflationary pressure higher.

    The CPI is expected to rise 0.5% over last month following a 0.6% increase in May. Over last year, CPI likely grew by 4.9%, nearly matching May's 13-year high of 5.0%. But excluding more volatile food and energy prices, CPI likely rose by 4.0% last year, or by the most in nearly three decades.

    "We expect another big rise in core consumer prices in June, but there are signs that the severe upward pressure seen in recent months is easing," Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist for Capital Economics, wrote in a note. "The latest data suggest that wholesale used vehicle prices have peaked."

    "Prices in the service sectors hardest hit by the pandemic still appear to be rising rapidly, however, with rising air passenger numbers pointing to another jump of 8% or so in CPI airfares, and the hotel occupancy data consistent with CPI lodging away from home rising by about 4%," he added. "The May report illustrated that price pressures are also emerging in other sectors, with rent of shelter inflation trending higher again and labor shortages in the leisure sector resulting in a 0.6% m/m jump in food away from home prices. Both trends look to have further to run."

    With prices moving higher, consumer spending likely also moderated further in June after a stimulus-fueled surge at the start of the year. Consensus economists expect the Commerce Department to report Friday that retail sales dipped by 0.5% in June compared to May, adding to the prior month's 1.3% monthly drop.

    The expected drop in headline retail sales will likely be at least partially offset by rising gas prices and the ongoing rebound in restaurant spending. However, Friday's report may still downplay the full range of consumer spending taking place during the recovery given this year's shift back to spending on services as mobility increases.

    "Based on our internal data, June marked the third month where durable goods spending was a drag to overall spending; while services provided a boost," Bank of America economist Michelle Meyer wrote in a. note. "Given that retail sales do not capture any services spending other than restaurant spending, we continue to think retail sales understates the degree of consumer spending recovery, which has largely been driven by services spending (such as traveling and entertainment) in recent months."

    Earnings Calendar
    • Monday: N/A
    • Tuesday: JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), Conagra Brands (CAG), Fastenal (FAST) before market open
    • Wednesday: Bank of America (BAC), PNC Financial Services (PNC), Wells Fargo (WFC), Delta Air Lines (DAL), BlackRock (BLK), Citi (C) before market open
    • Thursday: Bank of New York Mellon (BK), US Bancorp (USB), UnitedHealth Group (UNH), The Progressive Corp (PGR), Truist Financial Corp (TFC), Cintas Corp (CTAS), Morgan Stanley (MS) before market open; Alcoa (AA) after market close
    • Friday: Charles Schwab (SCHW), State Street Corp (STT) before market open
    Economic Calendar
    • Monday: N/A
    • Tuesday: NFIB Small Business Optimism, June (99.5 expected, 99.6 in May); CPI month-over-month, June (0.5% expected, 0.6% in May); CPI excluding food and energy month-over-month, June (0.4% expected, 0.7% in May); CPI year-over-year, June (4.9% expected, 5.0% in May); CPI excluding food and energy year-over-year (4.0% expected, 3.8% in May); Monthly budget statement, June (-$132.0 billion in May)
    • Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended July 9 (-1.8% expected); PPI final demand, month-over-month, June (0.5% expected, 0.8%. in May); PPI excluding food and energy, month-over-month, June (0.4% expected, 0.7% in May); PPI final demand year-over-year, June (6.7% expected, 6.6% in May); PPI excluding food and energy, year-over-year, June (4.8% in May)
    • Thursday: Empire Manufacturing, July (18.7 expected, 17.4 in June); Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index, July (27.0 expected, 30.7 in June); Initial jobless claims, week ended July 10 (350,000 expected, 373,000 during prior week); Continuing claims, week ended July 3 (3.325 million expected, 3.339 million during prior week); Import price index, month-over-month, June (1.0% expected, 1.1% in May); Export price index month-over-month, June (1.3% expected, 2.2% in May); Industrial production, month-over-month, June (0.6% expected, 0.8% in May); Capacity utilization, June (75.6% expected, 75.2% in May)
    • Friday: Retail sales advance, month-over-month, June (-0.5% expected, -1.3% in May); Retail sales excluding autos and gas, June (0.2% expected, -0.8% in May); University of Michigan Sentiment, July preliminary (86.5 expected, 85.5 in June); Total Net TIC Flows, May ($101.2 billion in April); Net long-term TIC Flows, May ($100.7 billion in April)"
    MY COMMENT

    With EVERYONE seemingly predicting HUGE earnings....we will be ripe for a bit of disappointment. Any LITTLE miss of the expectations will severely TEMPER the earnings immediate impact on the markets. There is NO ROOM for any earnings to miss the estimates with the sort of HYPE we are seeing about earnings now.

    I have NO DOUBT that earnings WILL be BIG.....but.....I have doubt they will cause any sort of big run in the markets. Last quarter they were HUGE and generally ignored.
     
  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,910
    Likes Received:
    5,035
    TYPICAL WIMPY open today as the past month or so. I guess this indicates that there is NOTHING going on of any importance. We continue in the summer doldrums....in spite of the start of earnings.
     
  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,910
    Likes Received:
    5,035
    I like this little article. It shows the POWER of long term investing and the short term nature of MOST corrections and even bear markets.

    Bulls on Parade

    https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/07/bulls-on-parade/

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "After sitting through an exceedingly long parade over the Fourth of July weekend I have a new rule proposal:

    No parade should ever be longer than 30 minutes in length.

    I mean how many sirens can one family be subjected to?

    I’m only half kidding here because my kids loved it but it still seems like you could cut 60% from most parades and the kids would still be happy (as long as they get some candy).1

    Much like parades, bull markets can last longer than you think as well.

    Market research has benefitted greatly from the information age. There are a plethora of free websites, data, opinions, analysis, charts, and news that rival even the most expensive subscription services of the past.

    One of the free research sources I use on a regular basis is Yardeni Research (they do have paid research too). And one of my favorite research pieces of theirs I look at regularly is the bull and bear market/correciton tables.

    Here’s the table of bull markets from 1928:

    [​IMG]
    And all of the corrections and bear markets:

    [​IMG]
    The definitions of bull and bear markets are subjective and perhaps semantics on some level but here are some thoughts on these tables:

    Corrections and bear markets outnumber bull markets by a factor of more than 2-to-1. By my count, there have been 23 bull markets (24 including the current one) and 53 corrections and bear markets (which includes 32 corrections and 21 bear markets).

    Maybe this is one of the reasons losses sting twice as bad as gains feel good — downturns occur more often.

    Bull markets can last longer than you think. Bull markets make up for a lack of quantity with magnitude and length.


    While the downturns have lasted an average of 207 days peak-to-trough, the upturns have lasted an average of 1,121 days from trough-to-peak.


    The average loss is a downturn of 23% while the average gain was 122%. Obviously, the ranges around the averages are wide but the up markets more than make up for the down markets over time.

    Dividends matter more than you think. The gains shown on these tables are calculated using the price-only index for the S&P 500, not including dividends.

    This matters much more for the bull markets than the bear markets.


    For example, the price gain from 1987-2000 was 582%. Yet the total return, including dividends, was closer to 800%.


    Yields are much lower now than they were in the past because of the prevalence of buybacks, but every bit helps over the long-term.

    Downturns are a natural extension of bull markets. One of the problems with bull markets is you begin to feel invincible.

    Things feel pretty good right now. The economy is back on track and humming along nicely. The stock market is hitting new all-time highs on the regular. It’s basically been impossible to lose money over the past 15 months and change.

    That will change eventually. I don’t know when and I don’t know why but the stock market will take a breather at some point.

    I don’t know if that means a minor correction or a bigger bear market but it will happen. You don’t get the big gains without big losses on occasion.

    Based on Yardeni’s table, the U.S. stock market has experienced a double-digit loss once every year-and-a-half or so since 1928.

    These things don’t run on a schedule like a train station but it is important to build downturns into your expectations when investing in stocks, even during bull markets.


    Bull markets are inevitable because of innovation and the power of the human spirit.


    But corrections are also inevitable because human nature causes us to freak out from time-to-time."

    MY COMMENT

    YES....the bull markets statistically......OVERPOWER......the results of corrections and beat markets. Like many components of investing......THE PROBABILITIES....strongly favor the investor that stays fully invested in stock or funds for the long term. All it takes to be successful is some.......GUTS......and willpower. WELL....of course it also takes the reason and logic required to pick RATIONAL investments......something that is much more difficult for most investors than it sounds.

    The data is also important in another area.......the FACT that stock buybacks....are hurting dividends. A BIG JOKE on investors by corporate management.
     
    #6548 WXYZ, Jul 12, 2021
    Last edited: Jul 12, 2021
  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,910
    Likes Received:
    5,035
    Easy to say but hard to do. I do check my account.....every day.

    Here's why checking your investment portfolio every day is a bad idea

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/mone...uldnt-check-your-accounts-every-day/47302885/

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Investing in stocks and other assets is a great way to grow long-term wealth. In fact, if your goal is to retire comfortably, it's smart to put your savings into stocks, which have a strong history of delivering solid returns.

    It's also a good idea to check on your investments from time to time, whether they're in a retirement plan or a brokerage account, to make sure they're performing the way you expect them to. And as the value of your different holdings shifts, you'll want to keep checking on your investments to make sure you're still well-diversified.

    But one thing you shouldn't do is check your investments obsessively. And according to a recent Personal Capital survey, a little more than 20% of people check their investments on a daily basis. If you're in that habit, it's time to break it – before it comes back to bite you.

    The danger of checking your investments too frequently

    The stock market can be very volatile. But even during periods of relative calm, it's possible for the value of an individual stock to fluctuate from one day to the next, especially if news comes out that impacts trading activity.

    That's why checking your portfolio every day isn't a good idea. It can be very unsettling to see the value of your investments tumble overnight, and that could, in turn, lead you to make rash decisions – like dumping investments when they're down rather than giving them a chance to recover.

    One thing it's easy to overlook is that when your portfolio value declines, you're not actually out any money on the spot. Rather, you only lose money if you actually sell stocks or other investments for less than what you paid for them. And so the last thing you need is to be tempted to take such action over what will often boil down to a temporary blip.

    Be in it for the long haul
    It is possible to make money in stocks on a short-term basis. A safer bet, however, is to take a long-term approach to investing and plan to hold your stocks for many years. That way, you'll have time to ride out the market's ups and downs and come out in a profitable position.

    Once you commit to investing on a long-term basis, looking at your investments every day becomes needless. After all, what's the point in stressing over an overnight decline when you're not planning to liquidate your stocks for several decades?

    It's all about moderation
    To be clear, checking your portfolio every quarter is a good idea. You may even want to have a look every month. But a daily checkup can do much more harm than good.

    If you're in the habit of reviewing your investments every day, use those few minutes to instead meditate, walk around, or do something else that's good for your health. But obsessing over the value of your portfolio could have the opposite effect -- it could cause you unnecessary stress that you don't deserve to deal with."

    MY COMMENT

    LUCKILY....most people are fully caught up in day to day life and dont have time to check their account every day. GENERALLY.....it just leads to churning your own account or trying to time the markets......over trading.

    Do I follow this....no I dont. I look every day. BUT....it is easier and mentally safer for most people to just get on with life and check your account once in a while.....especially if you claim to be a long term investor.

    OR.....do what I often do.....I look and celebrate when things are good.....and....ignore it when things are bad. Why torture yourself when the markets are bad.
     
  10. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,910
    Likes Received:
    5,035
    As I have been typing 2/3 of the averages have turned positive. The DOW and the SP500 are now positive. The NASDAQ is slightly negative. An ABSOLUTELY typical day. I suspect that people that think the earnings are going to result in a big MARKET BOOM are in for disappointment. I have NO DOUBT that the earnings will be.....HUGE. BUT....I also believe that the markets reaction will be very MUTED. You just have to consider the great earnings as.....money in the bank...for the future.
     
  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,910
    Likes Received:
    5,035
    Speaking of checking your account......yes....I just did. A gain...but EXTREMELY minimal. Of course the big tech....APPLE, AMAZON, MICROSOFT....are all mildly down so far today.....as is also....COSTCO. The rest of my account is green......but so minimally....I will call the day so far for me......DEAD FLAT.
     
  12. oldmanram

    oldmanram Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2021
    Messages:
    444
    Likes Received:
    345
    Morning W,
    It was a lot easier to "NOT LOOK" back in the OLD DAYS of monthly mailed paper statements.:(
    One hour into the trading day and I've hit the UPDATE key 4 times today , about every 15 minutes.
    at open DN .07%
    then DN .03%
    then UP .02%
    by 7:30am Pacific Time UP .15%
    I try to justify it in my mind that I'm just checking the temperature of the market today. :)
    Now 5 times UP .16%
    In my mind I get a picture of the dice roller coming up to the craps table, "come on dice, do me good" :banana:
     
  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,910
    Likes Received:
    5,035
    LOL....oldmanram. I STILL do paper statements.....and....paper bills each month. I try to keep this sort of data on paper as much as possible. I dont do any sort of e-bills, or even online bill pay. I got in the habit of doing ALL my monthly bills and checks by hand as a business person. I would have a secretary type in the checks......but I reviewed each one with the bill and signed each one personally. No one else was authorized to sign checks.

    I CONTINUE to believe that ANYONE that delegates the signing of checks or paying of bills or finances......is NOT in total control of their business. I saw a few examples during my time in business....where.....friends thought everything was going very nicely and got the BIG SHOCK of suddenly finding out that their business was in trouble. We see this with CELEBRITIES and others that delegate all their financial dealings.
     
    Jwalker and Marvan like this.
  14. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,910
    Likes Received:
    5,035
    I am NOT a technophobe. I have really good tech skills with my Macbook Pro's and my up to date iPhone. BUT....I DO NOT do any social media other than this site if you want to call this social media. No twitter, no Facebook, etc, etc. I prefer to stay as under the radar as possible in terms of online content connected to......"me".

    I am sure you remember....oldmanram...the days when there was NO business TV in the mornings. There was business radio each morning. There was really no way to even check on your investments during the day....unless you went down to your broker and looked at the TICKER in the lobby.......or....called on the phone.

    My view is to use tech when and where is is convenient for....."me".....and NOT use it just because it is the latest FAD. If it is easier for me to walk over and turn off the light......that is how I do it.
     
    #6554 WXYZ, Jul 12, 2021
    Last edited: Jul 12, 2021
    Jwalker likes this.
  15. oldmanram

    oldmanram Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2021
    Messages:
    444
    Likes Received:
    345
    I still do paper statements as well , I agree: if your not signing the checks , your not in control,
    And it sounds like BOTH of us have some CONTROL ISSUES !!!
    And I too would like a small of a internet footprint as I can get away with. No Facebook, social media , who cares
    One thing that does piss me off lately is companies REQUIRING me to go online for statements , crap I have 10 credit cards, for different purposes , different companies etc, and a few different chain store cards, Home Depot, Lowes, Target, etc. I don't want HAVE to remember to download a statement , just send me a paper statement so I can put it in my ticker and get it paid on time. and keep the ones I have for specific tax purposes in a separate file as well. Like medical expenses. Minor Rant !!
    Tech is great , BUT , as we know , too much of a good thing is not good , just ask David Crosby !!
    I still hit up the business radio on my ride into work a couple times a week, then a little music to calm me down after the dribble that the narrator is spewing out on long term care insurance.
     
  16. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,910
    Likes Received:
    5,035
    Sounds like the SAME business radio that I used to listen up there 22-44 years ago....driving in to work. That station was always pushing the long term care insurance. I had about a 45 minute...minimum....drive in to work, so I had plenty of time to get up to date on the investing and business news each day.

    CONTROL ISSUES.......yes probably LOL......I learned a lot of it from being in business. You better be in control and on top of it all.....no one else is going to care like you do. I was very good at delegating and giving out authority....but I still kept on top of it all....especially the financial side of things.

    You know.....we saw a BIG issue with TECH down here when they had the recent little heat wave......and....one of the Electric companies.....re-set peoples internet thermostats.....to turn down their AC.......without them knowing about it. To me that was a real eyeopener. I will NEVER have any sort of wireless/internet based control on any of my critical home systems after that.
     
  17. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,910
    Likes Received:
    5,035
    I heard on the satellite business radio in the car today......that SONY is making one of their TV factories FULLY ROBOTIC. The entire manufacturing process of making a TV will be done with Robotics. This is the quickly approaching future for any sort of manufacturing. They will STILL need......some...... people to control and service the robotics....but probably way LESS than they use now.

    The future of the world......and one reason among many that I do not give INFLATION a second thought. As we advance into the TECH era.....human workers.....will become less and less necessary. There is going to be a lot of unemployed/underemployed people....... competing for fewer and fewer jobs. Government jobs will be GOLDEN. A DEFINITE deflationary situation.
     
  18. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,910
    Likes Received:
    5,035
    I CONTINUE to hold my 35 shares of NVIDIA that I bought on May 21, 2021 to play the NVIDIA stock split. When we close in a few minutes.....we will be down to 5 days left on my stock split count-down. The.....four for one...... split shares will be distributed to shareholders next Monday evening after the market close.

    At this moment.....at the close today....the stock is at $820.59......this is a gain of $18.58 today.......or.....2.32% for the day. I am HOPING that I can add another $100 per share from today till the end of the day on Monday when the split happens. I STILL anticipate selling enough of the 35 shares on next Tuesday to pay off my Margin balance from the purchase of the 35 shares.

    I know most people are aware of this....but for any that are not......I do own NVIDIA as one of my 10 long term holdings. I will NOT be selling any of those shares after the split.
     
  19. Mb0

    Mb0 New Member

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2021
    Messages:
    4
    Likes Received:
    0
    Do you see this increasing?
     
  20. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,910
    Likes Received:
    5,035
    A SOLID day for investors and the markets today. The same shallow market we have been living with for the past month or so. BUT...it seems to be working out well....so I am not complaining.

    Disney and big banks lead stocks to new all-time highs

    https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/12/investing/dow-stock-market-today/index.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "New York (CNN Business) So much for Wall Street's bulls selling in May and going away on summer vacation. The Dow is poised to close at a new all-time high Monday, led by gains in Disney and big banks Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase.

    The Dow was up more than 100 points, or 0.3%, in late afternoon trading. It's now gained more than 3% since the supposedly sleepy start of summer trading back in May.

    The S&P 500 was also up about 0.3%, which puts it in record territory too. The Nasdaq was up slightly, but even the slightest of gains would enable it to hit a new all-time high. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have each risen about 5% since the beginning of May.

    Disney (DIS) was the best performer in the Dow Monday, rising 3% following the strong box office numbers and solid streaming revenue for Marvel's "Black Widow" over the weekend.

    The Scarlett Johansson superhero movie is now the most successful hit of the pandemic era — showing that while some people are willing to spend $29.99 to watch a movie at home on Disney+, many moviegoers still want the big theatrical experience.
    The second-best performing Dow stock was Goldman Sachs (GS), which gained 2.5% with second-quarter results on tap for Tuesday morning. JPMorgan Chase (JPM), which also will release its latest numbers Tuesday, was up 1.5%.

    Both banking giants are benefiting from the stock boom: Each is expected to post solid trading revenue and healthy fees from their investment banking divisions thanks to strong demand for initial public offerings as well as an uptick in merger activity.

    Monday was a mostly quiet day for the markets from a data standpoint, with no major earnings or economic reports on the calendar. But the rest of the week is shaping up to be a busy one.

    Consumer price data for June comes out Tuesday morning, followed by a producer price report Wednesday.
    Those numbers, as well as a retail sales report from the government on Friday, will give investors clues about how much of a threat inflation really is and whether or not consumers are holding back on spending as a result of rising prices.

    It's a busy week for earnings too. Financial giants Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), BlackRock (BLK) and Morgan Stanley (MS)are all set to release their latest results. Earnings are also on tap from Pepsi (PEP), Delta (DAL) and UnitedHealth (UNH).

    Earnings are expected to rebound sharply from the second quarter of 2020, when much of the country was in pandemic shutdown mode. According to data from FactSet Research, profits for the S&P 500 are expected to soar 64% from a year ago."

    MY COMMENT

    YET ANOTHER....very nice day. Although I have not looked at my account yet....and this is one of those days that the results can vary dramatically depending on what you happen to own. I guess I should take a look and see.
     

Share This Page