At lest we are open in the markets and moving on to the end of yet another week.....in the relentless march to year end. Seeing the TYPICAL weak open today with none of the averages booming. All are green at this moment....but....there is no real strength to what is going on. As usual....the typical summer doldrums shallow market that is subject to being blown around by the slightest change in MOOD. HOPEFULLY earnings will overshadow everything else for the next 4-5 weeks....even if they are ignored. A good way to provide cover for the continuation of this little STEALTH summer rally. NONE of the averages are showing any real strength even though they are all in the green.....so far. ACTUALLY....I am NOT complaining....this is often how it goes in the summer....at least in the old days. SO MUCH....for the new normal "stuff". As usual....the new normal turns out to be the old normal.......or you could say....the normal normal.
HERE is the good news for some of us. Inflation could prompt largest Social Security cost-of-living adjustment in decades. Why there’s a push to change the way it’s calculated https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/14/soc...rease-for-2022-may-be-largest-in-decades.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points Seniors could see a much bigger bump to their Social Security benefits next year. There could be as much as a 6.1% cost-of-living adjustment next year, based on estimates from the latest Consumer Price Index data. However, a bill that has been reintroduced in Congress proposes changing how those annual increases are calculated. The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment for 2022 could be 6.1% due to inflation, according to a new estimate. That would be the biggest increase since 1983, according to non-partisan advocacy group The Senior Citizens League, which calculated the figure. It’s also a bump up from last month’s estimate, when the increase for next year was expected to be 5.3%. The new estimate comes as the Consumer Price Index in June increased 5.4% from a year earlier, the largest gain since August 2008. Higher food and energy prices were among the culprits that helped push the inflation measure higher. That helped push estimate the Social Security COLA for 2022 higher. That annual change is calculated based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W. Gasoline is particularly heavily weighted in the CPI-W, which helped to push up the COLA estimate. Many seniors are also noticing higher prices at their grocery stores, according to Mary Johnson, Social Security and Medicare policy analyst at The Senior Citizens League. The COLA could be subject to change, as there are still three more months of data to report before the Social Security Administration determines the official number for next year. One thing unlikely to happen during that time is any action from the Federal Reserve. Central bank Chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that the Fed is still “a ways off” from changing its policy. The Social Security COLA for 2021 was 1.3%. For many retirees, that meant just $20 more per month. Over the years, the increases have led to a loss of buying power for seniors, according to research from The Senior Citizens League. One bill was reintroduced in Congress last week to change the way the annual COLA is calculated to better reflect costs seniors pay. The Fair COLA for Seniors Act of 2021, proposed by Rep. John Garamendi, D-Calif., calls for changing the measure to the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly, or the CPI-E, rather than the CPI-W that is currently used. The CPI-E may better reflect the expenses seniors face, because it is based on items that people age 62 and older tend to use, including a higher weighting for health-care costs, according to Richard Johnson, director of the program on retirement policy at the Urban Institute. Annual cost-of-living adjustments rose by an average of 2.9% based on current methods from 1982 to 2011. The CPI-E, by contrast, increased by an average of 3.1% during that time period, according to the proposed legislation. The co-sponsors for Garamendi’s bill are mostly Democrats. In contrast, Republicans in the past have proposed moving to the so-called Chained CPI, which measures how people adjust their spending when prices go up. Switching to the CPI-E would result in an additional increase of about 0.2 percentage points per year over the current index, according to the Urban Institute’s Johnson. “Over time, that has a big impact,” he said. Estimates indicate that after 25 years, cost-of-living adjustments using the CPI-E would push benefits 5% higher. However, today’s retirees might not see much of a difference because it takes years to accumulate, Johnson said. But making the change still makes sense, he said. “The point of having these cost-of-living adjustments is so that the purchasing power of Social Security does not erode over time,” Johnson said. “If we’re not using the right inflation adjuster, then benefits can erode.” While altering the way the COLA is calculated is an “obvious kind of change that we should make,” according to Johnson, there is one thing that stands in the way: costs. “It would worsen the trust funds’ financial position, which is already quite precarious,” Johnson said. “It seems like this type of change could become part of a larger Social Security reform effort.” President Joe Biden’s campaign plans for Social Security included moving to the CPI-E. One bill previously proposed in Congress, the Social Security 2100 Act, also includes that change." MY COMMENT GREAT NEWS......yes....those of us on Social Security want our piece of the pie. We are now giving money to MOST people for having kids under 18....the first checks are going out right now per kid......payments from $300 to $250 per kid. GREAT.......ok.....I want mine too. HEY....free money...send me some. As to the trust fund....well....not my problem that the government has been stealing the money and replacing it with worthless special treasuries for decades. Just imagine if they had been ACTUALLY investing the money how much there would be now......the trust fund would probably have a HUGE surplus. Go inflation.....transitory or not.....for the next 3 months. The cost of living will be calculated, announced, and locked in stone in OCTOBER. The next 3 months....July, August, and September will set the amount of the cost of living increase. If things work out nicely over that time we will see a raise in January of 6-7%......on paper.....your actual check will vary. I should say "direct deposit" since hardly anyone gets a Social Security "check" anymore. This is a nice increase from the calculation that was done last month in May. At that item the estimate was for a 5.3% cost of living raise. Like any financial assets these sorts of increases to Social Security COMPOUND over the years into real money if we can string together some nice increases. The POWER of compounding for senior citizens.
I was curious after posting the above so I pulled out my old Social Security statement to see how much I had....."contributed".....by force.....over my work life. The MAJORITY of the money was paid during my "primary" work life to age 49 when I left the world of being a business owner. Since that time I have continued to pay in as a professional musician since......I do.....list that income on my taxes. My total as of.....2012....the last statement they sent me is.....$201,939. I "retired"....left the business world..... in May of 1999....so the majority of that money paid represents my work and business lifetime. I DO agree with the system....it is a good thing to have a basic level of retirement income that MOST people qualify for in old age. I have known some people that did not get anything because they worked as musicians under the table being paid mostly in cash and did not have the NECESSARY ten year....40 quarters....needed to get Social Security. A shame to see this happen to people....but they did bring it on themselves through short term thinking.....or....ignorance as to how the system works.
WELL the market have gone SOLIDLY to the DARK SIDE. UNIFORM losses in all the averages of about 0.30%......at the moment. I want to use my recent little NVIDIA stock split trade as an example of something......buying and selling with NO market timing. When I heard the split announcement on May 21, 2021.....I considered the probabilities and the market momentum at that moment ......and........decided to do a short term play on the split. I DID NOT wait for some ENTRY POINT to buy my shares.....I simply did the buy...."at the market"....on that day.....at $599.......IMMEDIATELY. Over the next 5-6 weeks the stock made a RELENTLESS move UP day after day. If I had waited for some MYTHICAL entry point I would probably have NEVER bought. On the FLIP side....when I decided to SELL on July 14, 2021......I simply did the same thing.....the stock was at $808.....in the red for the day.....but I did NOT wait for some MYTHICAL exit point....I simply sold "at the market". When each decision was made I DECISIVELY made the move. If I had waited for some better short term price to SELL I would have probably been HAMMERED by the BIG DROP in the stock that started shortly after I sold at $808 and has now escalated to a CURRENT price of $739...2.5 days later. This is in line with my lifelong policy of being DECISIVE in investing moves once I decide to do something. When I decide to buy something I go ALL IN....ALL AT ONCE. When I decide to sell....I do so ALL OUT ALL AT ONCE. I do not try to time the markets. If I have made a decision....I execute that decision. FOR ME....that has been the best way to do it. Looking back in hindsight that has been the BEST way.....for "ME"....... to buy or sell......by far....over my lifetime. I do NOT claim to have a CRYSTAL BALL....there is no way to know the future of any investment....especially the shorter the term. So....I do what the research says is the way to put the PROBABILITIES in my favor. I am just using this as an example......NOT....saying anyone else should do what I do.....EVERYONE has to invest in the way that is comfortable for them and their finances. The.....KEY....is to INVEST....no matter how you happen to do it.
We are having another amazing day, but not as good as yesterday. One of the things about holding contrarian stocks, which I do, is you need to be comfortable breaking even or making a small gain on days when other people are making huge gains. The flip side is, we do extremely well when the market gets scared. I say "contrarian" because I don't currently own a single growth stock. Every company in our portfolio is a well run, profitable, service business that distributes money to the owners. In other words, we are well positioned to enter retirement. We would have been fine carrying Tesla into retirement but selling it at the peak in January and moving some of that money into distributing companies was like a retirement dream. Thank you, Tesla. I need to step up my effort to get a couple of young, growth, companies with bright futures. Finding good companies is easier said than done.
Some good advice by TomB16 above for those in retirement. When I first retired...at an early age....I tended to keep my portfolio very focused on the old school BIG CAP dividend names. Proctor & Gamble, Phillip Morris, Colgate, Coke, Pepsi, GE, IBM, Costco, Nike, Home Depot, etc, etc, etc. I did have my MSFT and a few others that were more risky. As I got closer to my annuities kicking in and providing me with a lifetime income I was able to take more risk in my portfolio by focusing on the big TECH growth companies. This actually matched up well with the investing environment.......since I retired in 1999 and back than the BIG CAP DIVIDEND names were STILL KING of the hill. Later when the BIG CAP TECH companies took over and became KING of the hill...about 2010 to 2015.....I was ready to make the transition away from the old names and into the new. It worked out well as a strategy and provided some level of safety in a down market and continued income from the dividends to reinvest for more growth. I DID NOT live on my stock market money early in my retirement...I kept a good cushion of cash. Once I got to the point where my annuities were going to start in about 5 years....I began in earnest to use up my IRA money and eat into the stocks in that account....in order to EXHAUST my sources of income that would be taxable. I could see at that point that I was going to EASILY make it to the annuity start point with no problems. SO....the lesson.....at various times in retirement my STOCK portfolio evolved according to my future needs and where I would be taking money from to fund retirement. It also evolved according to the amount of stock market risk that I was able to take. Since retired in 1999....I did get the ENJOYMENT of having to live through some REALLY NASTY BEAR MARKETS....unfortunately. BUT...it all worked out just fine......and early in retirement from about 1999 to about 2010 when I was still keeping portfolio total return data.....I never went below about 14.5% as a long term average.
NOW....TODAY....a total waste of a perfectly good market day. A repeat of yesterday in the markets. At least it is the end of the week and we can lick our wounds and be ready to come back.....ON FIRE....next week.
WELL...today was a MILD BITCH of a day. I was in the red with 9 out of 10 stocks DOWN. My only winner of the day in the green was PG. STILL being focused on NVIDIA.....even though I ended my short term split trade.....it was down today by $32.21 or 4.23%. Since early Wednesday when I sold at $808....the stock is now down by10.2%.......a little one stock correction in just 2.5 days.
I have now been knocked back about a week in my total account value. The old time market machine. HERE is how we did for the week. DOW year to date +13.33% DOW for the week (-0.52%) SP500 year to date +15.20% SP500 for the week (-0.97%) NASDAQ 100 year to date +13.91% NASDAQ 100 for the week (-0.98%) NASDAQ year to date +11.94% NASDAQ for the week (-1.87%) RUSSELL year to date +9.54% RUSSELL for the week (-5.12%) That is a HUGE hit for the RUSSELL this week. We move forward from here....good to be DONE with this week.
The Russel really took a hit this week , last week I was thinking it was a little to volatile for my kids Roth IRA's so I liquidated them and switched them over to MGK (Mega Cap Growth stocks), they still took a hit in valuation, but not as bad as it could have been. As far as retirement goes I got lucky, I am from a Construction/Real Estate family, and bought my first property at age 18, I still remember the payment on that one acre of raw land $201.49 . It was a lot of money (for me) at the time,I think I was making about $225 a week, and no going out on the weekends, , a six pack at home was all I could afford, and If I did go out I had to watch how much I spent, the girlfriend (my companion of 38 years and wife of 26 years now) could not understand why we could only go out once a month. She does now !! I sub-dived that acre after a couple of years into 3 lots, sold one for what I paid for the entire property, then sold the other 2 lots for a combined profit of $110,000 , rolled some of that into a duplex, where we lived for 5 years , and used the rest for a down payment on my first apartment building. I thought the payment on that raw land was bad ........ when I first bought the apartment interest rates were 12%, I also had owner financing @10% and a small personal loan @ 10%, I was going about $1,000 a month in the wrong direction for the first couple of years. Hard work, working weekends, a frugal lifestyle and investing in the stock market is how we got to where we are today. edit (and paying your bills on time, a great credit score, a 790+, can save you thousands of dollars on home loans and even hundreds on car loans) Real Estate these days , looks like the market is starting to cool down a little, I saw the first listing in the last 5 months where someone actually lowered there price, It was a dump of a house in the first place and a fixer to boot, they were trying to get move-in ready prices for it. Most people these days do not want fixers anymore. In our neck of the woods I was checking the highest priced houses on the island, there are 12 over $1M listed for sale, the highest being $3.6M , a beautiful view of the san juans, 6,554 square ft , 4br 5ba house on 4 acres with a 5 car garage, , 2 years ago if we had a house over a $1M listed it was a rarity . And according to Zillow our little piece of heaven on has gone up past the $1M mark, I've noticed we kind of lag behind in valuations in the immediate area, most of the houses around us were built 10-15 years before ours and are on smaller lots. Everybody have a good weekend , So I was thinking, which would have done better , my investments in Real Estate or if I had invested all the money in the stock market, say the S&P500 , in 1985, AND assuming I didn't do a lot of stupid trades and buy a bunch of dogs (which I did in the past) The Long Ball period of my investing I call it (anyone heard of celerex? didn't think so). and amazingly it would have worked out about the same.
Are these figures similar to what you got.....oldmanram? I used my handy dandy....SP500 return calculator. I used January 1985 as a starting point and June 2021 as the end date. Here is what i got: SP500 total return +2374.615% Annualized SP500 return +9.21% SP500 total return with dividends reinvested +5477.926% Annualized SP500 return with dividends reinvested +11.676% The S&P 500 Dividends Reinvested Price Calculator https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/
HERE is a review of the day today....for the HISTORICAL RECORD. I am not even going to post it or discuss....since we all lived through it....and...this is just hindsight information. WE ARE MOVING FORWARD. Stock market news live updates: Stocks fall despite unexpected rise in retail sales https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-july-16-2021-221841943.html MY COMMENT Put today under the heading....."what if they reported earnings and no one cared". As I have said a few times....it is likely this reporting period that no one will care about the GREAT earnings. For some reason investors are REALLY jumpy right now....and....very subject to the typical fear mongering. RELAX PEOPLE.......nothing to see here. We are getting ourselves all WOUND UP for a little correction in August to October.....probably.....earlier in that time period rather than later.
oldmanram is seeing the housing market cooling off some in the Seattle area. I am seeing it cooling some here is the Central Texas area. It is ALSO cooling off some in the Portland Oregon area according to family members. It is STILL a SELLERS market....but the PANIC DRIVEN FRENZY is over....for now. Listings are generally still WAY DOWN. The home-buying frenzy is cooling off – here's why Completed home sales still 'reflected the most competitive market' https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/home-sales-housing-market-may-june "Sales of U.S. homes are on the decline, falling 1.2% from May to June — the biggest drop in almost a decade. The dip in seasonally adjusted home sales marks the biggest decline during this time of year since 2012, which according to real estate brokerage Redfin suggests "the housing market frenzy may have peaked for the year." In the month of June, the number of homes for sale also dropped, about 28% compared to a year earlier. This also marked another record low since 2012, when the real estate brokerage began tracking this data. Even though home sales are on the decline "measures of completed home sales reflected the most competitive market on record in June," according to Redfin. Home sales are stalling because prices have skyrocketed to "beyond what many buyers can afford," according to Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather. According to Redfin data, the national median home-sale price in June hit a record high of $386,888, an increase of about 25% compared to a year earlier. More than half of homes, about 56%, sold above their list price, up from 27% compared to a year ago. Additionally, the typical home sold in June went under contract in just two weeks, a far cry from the previous mark of about 39 days a year ago. Fairweather projected that prices will stabilize this summer, as more homeowners list their homes after "realizing they likely won't fetch a higher price by waiting longer to sell." By 2022, Fairweather expects home sales to "rev back up," especially as rents continue to rise and owning a home becomes more appealing." MY COMMENT Buyers will have a bit more comfort and choice in the buying process....but....sellers will still have the upper hand due to EXTREMELY low inventory. We were in a PANIC market...now....we will simply be in a HOT market. Around my area...I expect that the very HOT market will continue for the rest of the year and right into 2022. BUT....things have cooled off some....you can just feel it. In my little area of 4200 homes: There are currently 22 homes for sale. There are 7 homes above $1MILLION....and 12 homes between $500,000 and $850,000......the LOWEST priced home is $525,000. The remaining 3 homes are between $850,000 and $1MILLION. Median sales price is $687,000. Average price per SQFT is $243. ONLY.....10.35% of the homeowners are over age 54. Owners with a college degree are 44,76%, with a graduate degree 34.89%. Those with only High School are 5.37%. 53.3% of owners have an income level of $150,000 or above. The largest income category is those greater than $200,000 at 24.61%. I assume that the incomes levels are by household and that many households have two wage earners....although I see a lot of young stay at home mom's around the area. ALL the schools are rated A+. My particular age group........65-74...... makes up about 3.1% of the neighborhood.....ages 75-84 is 1.03% of the neighborhood. I suspect that the average homeowner age is trending DOWN....quickly. We are an EXTREMELY diverse neighborhood in terms of race. I would say education level and income are MUCH MORE the DEFINING factor than race. The Central Texas area is a very difficult market for affordable.....city or close in...... homes and WILL NEVER get any better.
Here is some weekend info...pretty SHOCKING actually......on a local level. Austin housing market sets more records in June, prices continue to climb https://www.kxan.com/news/austin-housing-market-sets-more-records-in-june-prices-continue-to-climb/ (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "AUSTIN (KXAN) — The Austin-Round Rock housing market set more records in June with home prices going even higher, the Austin Board of Realtors said Thursday. In its report for June, the board said median home prices in the five-county area in the Austin-Round Rock metropolitan statistical area are now at $482,364, an all-time record. More homes were sold this June than any June on record as people bought 4,369 houses in the area. Inventory is still incredibly low, and it’s just getting lower. Inventory numbers dipped from 1.1 months to 0.6 months, and homes are on the market for average of just 13 days, down from 33 days year over year. A snapshot of the Austin-Round Rock MSA housing market that takes in a five-county area around Central Texas, courtesy of the Austin Board of Realtors Austin’s market mirrors the encompassing area’s. The median home price has increased 42% year over year to $575,000, and total sales dollar volume exploded 62% to over $4.26 billion for the first half of the year. More homes this June were sold than any other June on record at 1,374, and total sales dollar volume in June alone was nearly $1 billion. On average, homes are spending just 13 days on the market, down from 16 days. A snapshot of Austin’s housing market statistics for June, courtesy of the Austin Board of Realtors. The report said there doesn’t appear to be an end in sight, either. “In June, and in the first six months of the year, we saw a confirmation that Austin’s housing market is one of the strongest in the nation,” ABoR President Susan Horton said. “Our market has established its own new normal, as median prices climb while inventory remains low. With the unprecedented growth our region continues to experience, we can expect these trends to continue.” For the entire area, more listings are going up but the houses are going under contract very quickly, Horton said. She said there’s more that needs to be done to address affordibility in the market. “Local leaders should collaborate regionally and with their state and federal partners to think creatively to address this complex issue. There is no ‘one-size-fits-all’ solution, but we must use all the tools available to us to employ an ‘all-of-the-above’ strategy,” she said. “Addressing this challenge head on and prioritizing housing will go a long way to ensuring that our local economy remains healthy, our market reaches a more balanced position, and more people have access to homeownership.” June county reports from ABoR Travis County: Home sales increased 8.5% year over year to 2,123 sales, while sales dollar volume climbed 54.7% to $1.5 billion . During the same period, the median price increased 42.7% to $560,000. New listings increased 20% to 2,600 listings; active listings fell by half, 50%, to 1,290; while pending sales slightly decreased 4.6% to 2,106 pending sales. Housing inventory fell 1.0 months to 0.7 months of inventory. Williamson County: Home sales increased 11.4% year over year to 1,539 sales. During the same period, sales dollar volume jumped 62.8% to $764,342,867, and the median price climbed 47.5% to $450,000. New listings increased 25.5% to 1,759, while active listings tumbled 61.6% to 605 listings. Pending sales increased 3% to 1,576 pending sales. Housing inventory fell by one month to 0.5 months of inventory. Hays County: Home sales decreased 4.7% year over year to 509 home sales, as sales dollar volume climbed 36% to $260,278,016. During the same period, the median price rose by 37.6% to $395,000. New listings increased 44% to 609 listings; active listings fell 63.8% to 243 listings; and pending sales slightly increased 0.4% to 557 pending sales. Inventory dropped 1.3 months to 0.6 months of inventory. Bastrop County: Home sales increased 32.8% year over year to 158 home sales, and sales dollar volume soared 85.2% to $62,643,784. At the same time, the median price increased 24.8% to $322,500. New listings increased 5.4% to 156 listings; active listings fell 65.3% to 96 active listings, while pending sales fell 16.6% to 136 pending sales. Inventory declined 2.2 months to 0.7 months of inventory. Caldwell County: Home sales increased 17.7% year over year to 40 home sales, and sales dollar volume jumped 76.4% to $14,784,567. During the same period, the median price rose 38.3% to $295,000. New listings increased 21.1% to 46 listings; active listings decreased 60.8% to 31 listings. Pending sales increased 2.3% to 44 pending sales. Housing inventory fell 2.2 months to 0.9 months of inventory. MY COMMENT Some of the counties above are MILES.......30, 40, 50,......miles outside Austin. The closer in areas.....20-40 miles from downtown....are INCREASING in price by a SHOCKING........40% to 50%......YEAR OVER YEAR. AMAZING.
HERE is a very good summary of the market behavior on Friday. Panic-like selling emerges Friday afternoon as stock market's drop gathers steam in last hour of trade https://www.marketwatch.com/story/p...n-last-hour-of-trade-2021-07-16?siteid=yhoof2 (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Trading in New York Stock Exchange-listed stocks on Friday were exhibiting panic-like-selling behavior to end a turbulent week of trading, featuring two days of congressional testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and a trove of key economic reports. The NYSE Arms Index, a volume weighted breadth measure that tracks the ratio of advancing stock to declining stocks over the ratio of advancing volume over declining volume, was showing a reading of 2.182 for NYSE-listed shares. Many technicians say a rise to at least 2.000 suggests panic-like selling behavior. The reading comes even as the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.86% was off 0.8% at 34,706, the S&P 500 index SPX, -0.75% was off 0.7% at 4,331 and the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -0.80% was trading 0.7% lower at 14,447. Fed Chairman Powell this week again reassured markets that a rise inflation was likely to be temporary, but higher prices may be behind the fall in consumer sentiment. For the week, the S&P 500 was looking at a 0.9% weekly drop, the Dow was on track for a 0.5% weekly slide, while the Nasdaq Composite was set for a 1.8% weekly decline." MY COMMENT Panic like behavior......YES.....with the so called professionals running like their hair was on fire at the head of the pack....as usual. BUT....there is a DEFINITE danger that this WILL spill over to regular investors.......and....will cause a correction. SO....in the face of what will be AMAZING earnings for the VAST majority of reporting companies and the continued re-opening of the economy....we will (POSSIBLY) see.....a MINDLESS correction cause by simple investor panic. Of course.....much market behavior is due to psychology and herd behavior. The EPITOME of short term investing.....and.....the PRIMARY reason to NOT participate and to be a LONG TERM INVESTOR. As usual....I live what I post and WILL NOT participate in the INSANITY. I continue to be fully invested for the long term as usual
Panic Like Selling ???? What kind of bull**** are these guys peddling ? I was down about .10% - .15% most of the day, checked about 3 times on Friday, at the close I was down .43% I had 3 green stock's , the usual suspect's , real estate REIT's, VTR and DLR , and my medical etf VHT was up My big losers were Micron, the Russell 2000 and MDY (mid cap S&P) most movement was less than 1% , maybe some people got the billing statement for that first vacation they took in over a year and needed to do a little liquidating to pay the balance off. Who knows, but a day or week that goes the wrong way happens. "W" said, SO....in the face of what will be AMAZING earnings for the VAST majority of reporting companies and the continued re-opening of the economy....we will (POSSIBLY) see.....a MINDLESS correction cause by simple investor panic. Of course.....much market behavior is due to psychology and herd behavior. Me: The REOPENING outlook is good , earnings should be great , quit watching the fear mongers!! I'm with "W" and most of the other people on this forum, so we had a bad week end, I had expected a little bounce back on Friday, but it didn't happen , Ow well , I've always been a contrarian, and I look at what happened at the end of the week and say to myself , well what looks good to buy out there ? Are there any holes in my portfolio I'd like to plug ? Do I have any cash burning a hole in my pocket ? Any long range plays out there ? Like the robotics/AI field , that has been hit pretty hard the last week/month , Has ARK corrected enough to make it an interesting buy ? Should I sell MICRON ? It was up 88% from where I bought it last year , now it's ONLY up 70% Well that's where my mind the last 30 minutes Where is yours now ????????
W , the way I figured the return was to look at one of those "If I had invested $10,000 in the stock Market" at such and such a date calculators. I plugged in my inertial Real Estate investment and looked at the (dividends reinvested) return (about 12% annually), and compared that to what I invested in my apartments back in 1985. The real estate value was ahead by about 25%, BUT , there are a lot of things that are incalculable. I wouldn't have had to lift a finger with the market investment , as a matter of fact the best thing for me to have done, would have been to buy SPY and leave it alone !! Or purchased more Microsoft and never sold. The Real Estate , required effort , a lot of effort in the beginning The Real Estate has given me a comfortable income over the past 10 years, and in the early years provided a good tax break, DEPRECIATION !! And what if I had not been in Seattle ? with a BOOMING economy the last 20 years, Microsoft, Tmobile, Google, Boeing and others The Real Estate may not have appreciated as much. In the end I chose a 2 prong approach to my retirement, I did both !!
oldmanram. In the end you did what you and your family know......stocks and real estate...and it worked out very well. That is about all anyone can do and hope for. The PANIC selling......as I mentioned....that article is a reflection of the...."professionals". They are ALWAYS the ones that are in a BIG PANIC. The "regular" investors just sit there. It is pretty FUNNY actually. They are the ones that feel all SUPERIOR to the "little" investors....but they are the ones that can NEVER stand the heat for even a day or two. TYPICAL.
YOUR post above about your early years.....oldmanram....is a good example of how it works. Someone looking at you......now......sees a SUCCESSFUL person that is doing well and making a very good income and has a high net worth. They NEVER see or realize the struggles, risk, and all the years that you saved, worked hard, deprived yourself, did the hard things, etc, etc, to get there. The typical high net worth people that I have met over my lifetime.....started with very little, worked hard, and BOOTSTRAPPED their way to where they ended up.......often by sheer will power and refusal to give up. Very few....started out from a RICH family or with a big inheritance or trust fund. They all seem to be DRIVEN to be successful IN SPITE OF how they started out. Many come from extreme poverty or very hard situations as a kid. Others come from a good family that instilled them with GOOD VALUES and a GOOD WORK ethic.....but not a lot of money to start out. I STILL am amazed at the.....BACKSTORY.....to many of the successful people that I meet.
