The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    In 2005, I got myself a diesel, 1 ton, dual rear wheel, pickup truck to haul construction equipment. Before the purchase, I read about different brands/engines/etc. for months.

    So, I got this thing and it worked great but it had one issue. It got terrible fuel economy. I still have the truck and, to this day, the best fuel economy I have clocked is 14.5mpg. If I'm hauling much, the FE goes way down.

    Meanwhile, the guys on the diesel forum are all getting 22~25mpg doing 75 on the interstate.

    I wasn't super worried about it but I was asking about having the injectors flow tested and balanced when a guy took me to task. I explained the fuel economy and he told me that's what they get. This man worked in the oil patch and he said his company had a few thousand trucks, mostly diesel, of all brands, and not one of them would get the 20mpg claimed by tons of people on the forums. They track the fleet economy and it was worse than mine, particularly with the Ford 7.3PSD like I have.

    Since then, I have had the opportunity to see data from other large truck fleets. These trucks don't get good FE.

    The point is: peer pressure is bullshit that is built on a mountain of lies.

    Save your money. Invest carefully. Do your best and you will probably out perform the vast majority of people online, despite their decries to the contrary.
     
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  2. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    EXACTLY....that is why I post my actual portfolio and moves on here for all to see.

    EVERYONE just happens to forget their failures and only post their wins. What is the use in that?
     
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  3. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    well since we are in the confession mode, looking back over the past 5 years, i had one down year, jan '18 to jan '19. essentially i am a long term investor although i play around with about 10% when i'm bored. lately, been focusing on some creative stuff so that keeps from being bored. overall, my portfolio has more than doubled in past five years.
     
    #6743 emmett kelly, Jul 22, 2021
    Last edited: Jul 22, 2021
  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    ANYONE that is a "SENIOR" INVESTOR.....and has lived through multiple BEAR MARKETS as well as many nasty corrections......has had a number of bad years...just from those events alone. I have NO concern with being negative when the averages are negative for a year.....that is just reality.

    I ALSO set a REALISTIC goal......the primary one being to achieve a long term total return of 10% or more annually. Since I have always been a BIG CAP......cream of the American business world investor.....I tend to......."somewhat".....follow the SP500. So that is a pretty good indicator of my bad years.....except for May 2008 to early 2009....when I went to cash and avoided much of the slaughter.
     
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  5. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    In 2004, I changed my world view to realize that 8~10% annual return was my goal. Lowered expectations did not hurt my returns, to say the least.

    I am happy with a company that only nets out around 10% annual return over the last decade. I certainly have no interest in selling it. It's doing a good job, I consider myself a partner in that corporation, and I wouldn't want the problem of figuring out what to do with that money.
     
    WXYZ likes this.
  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    In my view....a realistic investing goal....facilitates sticking with investing for the long term. It also helps to avoid getting caught up in chasing returns or swinging for the fences or trading. Slow and steady wins the race. I prefer to let......steady......compounding do the heavy lifting.

    AND....I usually handily BEAT my goal.....by not putting pressure on myself or my portfolio.
     
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  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Lets get EXCITED about the markets tomorrow......we "deserve" it.

    Stock market news live updates: Futures rally, zero in on records as markets try to extend win streak

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...-111046902-221350203-221314424-232402484.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)


    "Futures rallied in Thursday's after-hours session, suggesting Wall Street would extend the previous day's gains — and perhaps test new highs on Friday — after a rough start to the week."

    AND

    Dow Jones Futures: Apple, Microsoft Lead Market Rally; Snap, Twitter Surge On Earnings, Lifting Rivals

    https://www.investors.com/market-tr...-market-rally-snap-twitter-surge-on-earnings/

    "Dow Jones futures rose modestly Thursday night, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures, as Snap stock and Twitter leapt on earnings, lifting social rivals such as Facebook (FB). The stock market rally was mixed Thursday, with Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT) and other megacap techs and software leading the way while small caps and many sectors retreated.

    Snapchat parent Snap (SNAP), Twitter (TWTR) and Intel (INTC) reported earnings after the close.

    Snap and Twitter earnings crashed views amid booming revenue growth. Snap and TWTR stock surged in overnight trade, signaling possible breakouts. That also gave a lift to Facebook stock and Pinterest (PINS), as well as Google stock, all of which report next week. Facebook and Pinterest stock had flashed bullish reversals from their 50-day lines earlier this week.

    Intel beat views but gave mixed guidance. Intel stock fell modestly in extended trade.

    Apple, Microsoft Lead Market Rally
    The stock market rally fared well on the major indexes. Apple stock rose 1% on Thursday while Microsoft, Amazon.com (AMZN) and Facebook stock climbed more than 1%. Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL) climbed 0.7%.

    Leading stocks generally did well, with XPEL (XPEL), CrowdStrike (CRWD) among those flashing buy signals.

    On the downside, small caps pulled back. So did many real economy sectors, though they pared losses.

    Microsoft and Google stock are on IBD Leaderboard and IBD Long-Term Leaders. PINS stock is on SwingTrader. Snap stock, Pinterest and Google are on the IBD 50.

    Dow Jones Futures Today
    Dow Jones futures rose 0.2% vs. fair value. S&P 500 futures climbed 0.3%. Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.3%, helped by Facebook and Google stock.

    Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn't necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.

    Coronavirus News
    Coronavirus cases worldwide reached 193.36 million. Covid-19 deaths topped 4.15 million.

    Coronavirus cases in the U.S. have hit 35.21 million, with deaths above 626,000.

    Stock Market Rally
    The stock market rally saw slim gains on the major indexes, some solid gains for leading stocks but weakness elsewhere.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.1% in Thursday's stock market trading. The S&P 500 index climbed 0.2%. The Nasdaq composite advanced 0.4%, with the big-cap Nasdaq 100 up nearly 0.7%. The small-cap Russell 2000 slumped 1.6%.

    Apple stock and Microsoft are part of the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite, so these $2 trillion-plus market-cap giants sway markets. Amazon, Google and Facebook stock, the next biggest companies by market cap, are S&P 500 and Nasdaq members. All five tech titans report earnings next week.

    Among the best ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) climbed 0.7%, while the Innovator IBD Breakout Opportunities ETF (BOUT) was just above breakeven. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) gained 1.3%. Microsoft stock is a major IGV component. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) retreated 0.6% after strong gains in the prior two days. Intel stock is a key SMH component.

    SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) sank 0.8% and Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF (PAVE) 0.7%. U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS) slumped 1.2%. SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) retreated 0.8%. The Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) and the Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) both fell 1.1%.

    Reflecting more-speculative story stocks, ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) dipped 0.8% and ARK Genomics ETF (ARKG) 1.1%. That snapped four-day win streaks for both.

    Intel Earnings
    Intel earnings topped views, along with overall revenue and data-center chip sales. But the chipmaker guided slightly lower on Q3 sales.

    Intel stock fell nearly 3% overnight after shares dipped 0.5% to 55.96 on Thursday. The Dow Jones tech giant has been a longtime laggard. However, Intel earnings, guidance and capital spending plans are still relevant for rivals such as AMD (AMD) as well as chip-equipment makers.

    Snap Earnings
    Snap earnings easily beat as revenue soared 116% and user growth topped.

    Snap stock leapt 18% to 74.12 in extended trade, signaling a move above a new buy point of 70.34. Shares edged down 0.7% to 62.97 on Thursday, finding support around the 50-day line. Snap stock broke out just below 66 in late June, but that move fizzled earlier this month. At this point, investors should focus on 70.34.

    Twitter Earnings
    Twitter earnings blew out views as revenue grew 74%, the best gain in seven years.

    Twitter stock popped nearly 6% to 73.50 in overnight trade. TWTR stock has a 72.17 buy point from a handle. though the relative strength line has lagged during its consolidation. Shares had edged up 3 cents to 69.57 on Thursday.

    With Snap and Twitter results so strong, PINS stock rose 4.5% and Facebook climbed nearly 3% in extended action.

    PINS stock rebounded from its 50-day line on Monday, offering an aggressive entry. Investors could peg 81.87 as another early entry, or use a downward-sloping trend line from the top of the consolidation that would offer a buy signal around 80.

    Facebook stock rebounded from its 50-day line on Tuesday and has kept climbing.

    Google, with some social media exposure, advanced 1% overnight. GOOGL stock rebounded from just above its 10-week line earlier this week.

    Market Rally Analysis
    The stock market rally is creeping toward all-time highs, at least on the major indexes. Much of that reflected Apple, Microsoft and Amazon stock, along with Google and Facebook.

    But leading stocks continued to do well. XPEL stock, CrowdStrike, Twilio (TWLO), ServiceNow (NOW), Horizon Therapeutics (HZNP) and Datadog (DDOG) all flashed buy signals of varying quality.

    Snap and TWTR stock suggest more leaders will flash buy signals on Friday.

    Still, Thursday's weakness in small caps and many key sectors points to a narrow market rally. Yes, it's just one day, but the Nasdaq advance-decline line was at six-month lows before rising on Tuesday and Wednesday. So that bears watching, even though new highs outpaced new lows.

    The generally lackluster trading volume this week also has not been inspiring.

    With Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Facebook all reporting next week, along with Twilio, ServiceNow and dozens of other top stocks, the coast is not clear.

    Investing Vs. Pokémon
    The tag line for Pokémon is "Gotta catch 'em all." But as an investor, you can't buy them all. With the stock market rally still under pressure and earnings season about to hit full force, you don't want to buy them all.

    Yes, a large number of stocks have flashed buy signals this week. They've generally been working. So there's a temptation to grab as many as you can. But be selective. Look for stocks with strong fundamentals breaking out or triggering other buy signals, ideally in strong volume. Favor stocks with relative strength lines at or near highs. Don't get too concentrated in a particular field, such software, data center chips or IPOs.

    The past few months have been challenging for many growth investors, with choppy markets and sector rotation. Don't trade like it's 2020.

    Pick your spots and define your exit strategy going in."

    MY COMMENT

    I am looking at a BIG RALLY tomorrow. We are moving higher on low summer volume. This can produce some outsize gains or losses. For now I am STRONGLY in the big gain camp for tomorrow. In other words.....dont fight the tape. YES....it is a very narrow rally....but so far......I have been on the right side of the rally for weeks now.

    YES.......RIDING THE WAVE.
     
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  8. gtrudeau88

    gtrudeau88 Well-Known Member

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    Hoping to pull even with last week's highs today. TSM was gaining but then crashed and appeared to be going nowhere so I sold and bought KLIC again (which had dropped nicely since I sold it a few weeks ago, VOO, and CSSEP (my favorite dividend stock). Not exactly a long termer's reaction I know but I wanted to take advantage of buying cheap. VOO had dropped down to $388 and now it's back up to $402. KLIC gained 7.2% since I bought and VOO 2.6%. Turned out to be a good choice as TSM is still blah.

    I took the same approach with my IRA during the big drop. GM was down almost 9% so I sold it and extended my positions in VOO, LOW, and DE while all three were down. All 3 have gained nicely. My position in Amazon, opened a couple months ago, has gained 10.6% since purchase which is also nice. DE, LOW, AMZN, and VOO is all I have in my IRA.

    So this week I guess I didn't employ a true long termer's perspective but in a small way I did. I didn't react by exiting stocks altogether. Rather I repositioned to gain from positions I thought had a better chance at growth by buying those during a dip. I'm not sure that I'll fully recover early week's losses by end of day today but it will be close.
     
  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    HEY......I want my money back.....I asked for a BIG RALLY and I only got a medium rally. I am going to STOMP around and hold my breath till the markets give me what I DESERVE. I want my big rally.....NOW.

    Ok....a good start to the day. We just need to hang in there.....a long time....till the close and not go through the dreaded mid day FADE....or.....the even more dreaded late day FADE.
     
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  10. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Here is the earnings report on one of my holdings.....HONEYWELL.

    Honeywell Beats Earnings Forecast, Lifts 2021 Outlook As Aerospace Rebounds

    https://www.thestreet.com/investing...t-forecast-lifts-outlook-on-aerospace-rebound

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Honeywell International (HON) - Get Report posted stronger-than-expected second quarter earnings Friday, while boosting its full-year profit outlook, thanks in part to improving sales in its aerospace division.

    Honeywell said adjusted earnings for the three months ending in June were pegged at $2.04 up 62% from the same period last year and 10 cents ahead of the Street consensus forecast. Group revenues, Honeywell said, rose 18% to $8.8 billion, again topping analysts' estimates of an $8.64 billion tally.

    Looking into the current financial year, Honeywell said it sees revenues of between $34.6 billion and $35.2 billion, organic sales growth of between 4% and 6% and adjusted earnings in the region of $7.95 to $8.10 per share, a 10 cents per share increase from the higher end of its prior guidance.

    "Building on our first-quarter momentum, we executed extremely well in the second quarter. Our results were driven by top-line growth and margin expansion in all four segments," said CEO Darius Adamczyk. "Our strong performance in the second quarter took place in a recovering but challenging global environment.

    "We are especially pleased to see a turnaround in several of our key end markets that were hardest hit by the pandemic, with commercial aerospace aftermarket and the UOP business returning to growth in the quarter," he added. "We are well positioned to capitalize on improving conditions as they unfold around the world and to execute on near-term growth opportunities across our portfolio, including in the warehouse automation, productivity, building products, and advanced materials markets."

    Honeywell shares were marked 0.5% higher in pre-market trading immediately following the earnings release to indicate an opening bell price of $234.00 each.

    Aerospace sales rose 7% to $2.76 billion, Honeywell said, due to improving lower commercial aircraft demand following the easing of pandemic-triggered travel restrictions the broader impact of the return to service of Boeing Co.'s (BA) - Get Report 737 MAX.

    Safety and productivity solutions sales, which includes major clients such as Amazon (AMZN) - Get Report, rose 35% to $2.1 billion."

    MY COMMENT

    NICE earnings and a beat all the way around.....also....some very positive outlook and forward statements. Good to see that the old trend of great earnings and PUNISHMENT for the stock is still alive and well. They are down by 2% so far today.
     
    #6750 WXYZ, Jul 23, 2021
    Last edited: Jul 23, 2021
  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I agree with this little article.....not that the average investor will really see things this way.

    Risk, Not Volatility, Is the Real Enemy
    Grant us investors the wisdom to know the difference.

    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/340722/risk-not-volatility-is-the-real-enemy

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "On days when the market has dropped recently, what has been your strategy?

    a. Add more money to my account.
    b. Hold steady with what I've got.
    c. Leave my money in, but be beside myself with worry.
    d. Yank my money; I wouldn't be able to stand any more losses.

    Wait a second--don't answer that. True, such questions are standard fare on risk-assessment questionnaires that you'll find all over the web, and they have their roots in a well-meaning idea. If investors buy the right investments but sell them at the wrong times because they couldn't handle the price fluctuations, they may have been better off avoiding those investments in the first place.

    Unfortunately, many risk questionnaires aren't all that productive. For starters, most investors are poor judges of their own risk tolerance, feeling more risk-resilient when the market is sailing along and becoming more risk-averse after periods of sustained losses like the ones the market has been logging lately.

    Moreover, such questionnaires send the incorrect message that it's OK to inject your own emotion into the investment process, thereby upending what might have been a carefully laid investment plan.

    But perhaps most important, focusing on an investor's response to short-term losses inappropriately confuses risk and volatility. Understanding the difference between the two--and focusing on the former and not the latter--is a key way to make sure you reach your financial goals.

    What Difference Does It Make?
    At first blush, it may seem like the distinction between risk and volatility is purely academic, one that finance eggheads might bicker about but that makes little difference to real-world investors. You certainly see the two terms used almost interchangeably in the investment arena. It's also true that these terms--especially risk--have different meanings for different people.

    But as investors, it's helpful to create a mental distinction between volatility and risk. What are the key differences? For starters, volatility encompasses the changes in the price of a security, a portfolio, or a market segment both on the upside (see 2019, 2020, and the year to date) and for ill (see 2008). So it's possible to have an investment with a lot of volatility that so far has only gone one way: up.

    Even more important, volatility usually refers to price fluctuations in a security, portfolio, or market segment during a fairly short time period--a day, a month, a year. Such fluctuations are inevitable once you venture beyond certificates of deposit, money market funds, or your passbook savings account. If you're not selling anytime soon, volatility isn't a problem and can even be your friend, enabling you to buy more of a security when it's at a low ebb.

    The most intuitive definition of risk, by contrast, is the chance that you won't be able to meet your financial goals and obligations or that you'll have to recalibrate your goals because your investment kitty came up short.

    Through that lens, risk should be the real worry for investors; volatility, not so much. A real risk? Having to move in with your kids because you don't have enough money to live on your own. Volatility? Noise on the evening news, and maybe a frosty cocktail on the night the market drops 800 points.

    However, it's easy to see how the two terms have become conflated. If you have a short time horizon and you're in a volatile investment, what might be merely volatile for another person is downright risky for you. That's because there's a real risk that you could have to sell out and realize a loss when your investment is at a low ebb.

    On the flip side, some of the most volatile investments (namely, stocks) may not be all that risky for you if they help you reach your long-term financial goals. And it's possible to completely avoid volatile investments but come up short in the end because your safe investments only generated small returns. You were paying too much attention to the short-term noise and missed the big kahuna of risks in the process.

    How You Can Manage the Two
    So, how can investors focus on risk while putting volatility in its place? The first step is to know that volatility is inevitable, and if you have a long enough time horizon, you'll be able to harness it for your own benefit. Using a dollar-cost averaging program--buying shares at regular intervals, as in a 401(k) plan--can help ensure that you're buying securities in a variety of market environments, whether it feels good or not.

    Diversifying your portfolio among different asset classes and investment styles can also go a long way toward muting the volatility of an investment that's volatile on a stand-alone basis. That can make your portfolio less volatile and easier to live with. Over the past several decades, for example, high-quality bonds, especially government bonds, have had a very low correlation with stocks. That suggests you don’t have to venture into arcane investments like private equities or managed futures to obtain diversification; holding the bulk of your long-term portfolio in plain-vanilla stocks and bonds will be just fine.

    It also helps to articulate your real risks: your financial goals and the possibility of falling short of them. For most of us, a comfortable retirement is a key goal; the corresponding risk is that we'll come up short and not have enough money to live the lifestyle we'd like to live. For people with kids, paying for college is a goal, but the risk is that you won't save enough and your child will have to turn to alternate sources of financing for school. By identifying goals and risks one by one, you can prioritize them and also troubleshoot what you would do if you fell short of one of your goals.

    Also give some thought to what's an appropriate stock/bond/cash mix for each of those goals/risks. Morningstar's Lifetime Allocation indexes or good-quality target-date funds can help you benchmark your retirement asset allocation. If you have shorter- or intermediate-term goals, a more conservative asset allocation will be appropriate.

    Finally, plan to keep money you need for near-term expenses out of the volatility mix altogether. I am a big fan of creating separate "buckets" of a portfolio and, in particular, a bucket for any cash the investor expects to need within the next couple of years. By carving out a piece of your portfolio that's sacrosanct and not subject to volatility or risk, you can more readily tolerate fluctuations in the long-term component of your portfolio."

    MY COMMENT

    I am not sure the average investor can possible avoid the psychological impact of volatility. It makes people do irrational things. From a clinical and logical standpoint the above is VERY TRUE. BUT....very difficult for most people to do.
     
  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    HERE is another bit of economic data that will not matter....although....it is a little indicator of where we are headed with potential inflation.

    U.S. business activity cools further in July - IHS Markit survey

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-business-activity-cools-further-134927519.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. business activity grew at a moderate pace for a second straight month in July amid supply constraints, suggesting a cooling in economic activity after what was expected to have been a robust second quarter.

    Data firm IHS Markit said on Friday its flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, fell to a four-month low of 59.7 from 63.7 in June. A reading above 50 indicates growth in the private sector.

    Businesses are battling shortages of raw materials and labor, which are fanning inflation, in the aftermath of the economy's reopening after severe disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The survey's findings fit in with economists' views that growth will slow after accelerating in the second quarter, thanks to massive fiscal stimulus.

    Even with the boost from government money fading, the economy remains supported by strong demand, with households having accumulated at least $2.5 trillion in excess savings during the pandemic. The labor market recovery is also gaining traction and wages are rising as companies compete for workers.

    But the Delta variant of the coronavirus, which is behind a resurgence in new COVID-19 infections in parts of the country with low vaccination rates, could result in consumers being more cautious.

    "While the second quarter may therefore represent a peaking in the pace of economic growth according to the PMI, the third quarter is still looking encouragingly strong," said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit. "Short-term capacity issues remain a concern, constraining output in many manufacturing and service sector companies while simultaneously pushing prices higher as demand exceeds supply."

    The government is due to publish its snapshot of second-quarter gross domestic product next Thursday. Growth estimates are converging around a 9.0% annualized rate. The economy grew at a 6.4% pace in the first quarter.

    The IHS Markit survey's flash services sector PMI fell to a reading of 59.8 from 64.6 in June, slowing further from May's record high. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a reading of 64.8 this month for the services sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.

    Firms reporting a slowdown in activity cited labor shortages and difficulties acquiring stock. According to the survey, some firms reported customer hesitancy because of significant hikes in selling prices. Companies are passing on to consumers the higher production costs brought about by scarce raw materials and workers.

    The government reported last week that consumer prices increased by the most in 13 years in June, while producer prices accelerated.

    There are, however, signs that inflation is close to peaking. The survey's measure of prices paid by services businesses slipped to 72.1 from a reading of 74.2 in June.

    While services sector activity is cooling, manufacturing continues to power ahead. The survey's flash manufacturing PMI rose to an all-time high reading of 63.1 from 62.1 in June. Economists had forecast the index for the sector, which accounts for 11.9% of the economy, would dip to 62.

    A measure of new orders received by factories increased and manufacturers reported unfinished work continued to pile up even as hiring picked up. Suppliers continued to struggle to deliver inputs on time."

    MY COMMENT

    The business environment is a big mess........but.....this should be expected. We are trying to re-open from an historic economic shutdown and disruption. Things are going to be very MESSY for a good while. business activity cooling is a good indicator of NO inflation problem going forward.....although the article mentions some factors that are indicators of inflation. Probably transitory.....but who can say. We will know for sure in about 3 years from now....when we look back at the history of this time period.
     
  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    HERE is what is going on so far today.

    Stock market news live updates: Stocks rally, zero in on records as markets try to extend win streak

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...-111046902-221350203-221314424-232402484.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)
    "Stocks rallied at the opening bell on Friday, with Wall Street aiming to build on gains for a 4th consecutive session after another batch of strong earnings, which helped push the Dow within view of its record high above 35,000.

    On Thursday, stocks notched slim gains in rangebound trading, but managed to stretch an improbable win streak into a third day, as traders struggled to decipher the meaning behind a surprise rise in unemployment.

    The head-spinning reversal from Monday's drubbing to Thursday mini-rally was part of the market's attempt to calibrate a resurgence of COVID-19 cases against a red-hot economic expansion that continues to gain momentum. Even amid the turmoil and uncertainty, the major benchmarks are within striking distance of record highs set just over a week ago.

    "What I would say is looking both bottom up and top down, the way the market's priced currently is very much in the early stages of recovery," Deutsche Bank chief global strategist Binky Chadha told Yahoo Finance Live on Friday.

    Sentiment took a hit after data Thursday showed an unexpected jump in jobless claims, which last week set a fresh pandemic-era low. New unemployment filings jumped to 419,000 in the latest week, well above consensus estimates of 360,000.

    Since the onset of COVID-19, the data series has served as an avatar of the labor market's health, and could take on new importance if rising infections start to trigger new restrictions — which may lead to another round of job losses.

    "As with the recent resurgence in COVID cases stemming from the Delta variant, the jump in jobless claims is a disappointment. Recovery is never a perfect straight line," noted Mark Hamrick, a senior economic Analyst at Bankrate.

    On Friday, investors digested services and manufacturing data that underscored the economy's strength, but revealed the sector grew at a more moderate pace than expected. Markit's preliminary U.S. Manufacturing PMI for July checked in at a lower-than-expected 59.7 versus 63.7 in the prior month. A reading abover 50 denotes growth.

    Strong earnings have helped the market heal from Monday's pandemic-inspired meltdown, with investors looking at the fundamentals rather than surging coronavirus numbers.

    This week, industry bellwethers Netflix (NFLX), Chipotle (CMG), Coca-Cola (KO), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Verizon (VZ) topped market expectations, boosting a market that's seen precious little downside in recent months.

    On Thursday, Intel (INTC) Twitter (TWTR), Snap (SNAP) — the parent company of Snapchat, Southwest (LUV) and AT&T (T) joined the brigade of better-than-expected earnings results, with both companies bolstered by surging post-lockdown demand.

    Monday's selloff momentarily took the spotlight from quarterly earnings that have almost uniformly reflected a strong rebound. The rising case count driven by the Delta variant — a more communicable form of COVID-19 — pushed the Dow (^DJI), Nasdaq (^IXIC)and S&P 500 (^GSPC)to their biggest drop in months.

    However, the signals emanating from the bond market are decidedly less enthusiastic. Analysts have pointed out that safe-haven Treasury bond yields have been the biggest beneficiary of COVID-19 fears, after having soared in recent weeks on inflation fears.

    It suggests that investors could be parking cash in bonds because jitters over inflation or waning, or they sense weakness on the horizon — which may or may not be driven by the stubborn persistence of COVID-19.

    “This move in the 10-year [Treasury yield] is significant,” Bank of America's chief U.S. economist Michelle Meyer told Yahoo Finance Live on Thursday. “Market participants are saying that there potentially is a speed bump in this recovery, that the risks to the downside have grown.”

    10:00 a.m. ET: Data: Manufacturing, services feel overhang of supply squeeze
    U.S. business activity grew at a moderate pace for a second straight month in July amid supply constraints, suggesting a cooling in economic activity after what was expected to have been a robust second quarter. IHS Markit's flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, fell to a four-month low of 59.7 from 63.7 in June.

    9:50 a.m. ET: China stocks hammered amid government crackdown

    Investors are taking the wood to Chinese stocks, in the wake of Beijing's move to exert more control over listed companies. There's been increased scrutiny on the sector ever since the Chinese government brought the hammer down on Didi, which is facing the threat of increased penalties. The stock is tanking in early trading, down over 17% on the day and more than 50% below its 52-week high."

    MY COMMENT

    The REAL story of the day and perhaps the decade is the reaction of the CHINESE government to CLAMP down on their companies. Otherwise we continue to climb on up the WALL OF WORRY....as usual. A typical shallow, narrow, summer day as we continue to move toward the Fall. Earnings continue to KICK ASS. The BIG enemy to investors remains.....THEMSELVES.

    It is the battle of the FUNDAMENTALS versus the short term financial news fear mongering.....as usual. FORTUNATELY....over the longer term.....it si the FUNDAMENTALS that always win out. The NOISE (news).....is always FORGOTTEN.
     
  14. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    a block away from my house is the community swimming pool which has been closed for over a week because of a national chlorine shortage. recently read that the rail industry is finding it difficult to hire conductors. wtf, everybody wants to sit on their ass and do nothing now?
     
    oldmanram and WXYZ like this.
  15. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    WELL........11:00 ET and all is WELL....we are showing strength as the day moves forward. Lets make some money today.

    WELL of course Emmett....FREE MONEY for not working and for having kids. Of course if my kids were not grown and I qualified I would take that free money in an instant. We are going to see ROLLING shortages of EVERYTHING. My wife ordered a new Kindle the other day....delivery time....December. Yes...the chip shortage.

    A lot of people are going to kill their work and career prospects in this environment....but....for others there are HUGE opportunities to be had....if....you can just step up and take them. Just the....modern world.
     
  16. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    Aaaand I sold my NVDA holding…
    Truly regret doing it cause NVDA is a CLEAR WINNER in my book - BUT- I will DEFINITELY buy it again! I will buy the same amount of shares I sold… or more… whenever it experiences a correction… whenever that will be… next week/next month/next year…. Unless the company all of a sudden experiences a WORLD crisis - I’m STILL an NVDA fan!
     
  17. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    Btw I didn’t sell it because of pressure or fears or ANYTHING remotely close to an emotional impact. I just looked at my tsla holding and saw how it reacted after the split and acted based on that experience.
    Back then I did buy tsla for a “short term” while, and added to my existing position. And sold the short term holding at a premium.
    Now with NVDA I just sold everything since clearly I wasn’t saavy enough to add more before the split
     
  18. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    I’m VERY tempted to take that money and dump it all on NTFLX since I’m sure it will go back up by at least 10% by next month, but overall NTFLX has been just SOOO damn volatile the past 2 years that I’m not sure I wanna get into this “buy low sell high” type of behavior.
    I will likely hold on to the money from NVDA and wait to see what happens next week and look for a “deal” on something with more promise.
     
  19. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Good input Zukodany. You must have had a very nice profit in Nvidia. It is NEVER a bad thing to take some profit. PLUS....I think the stock has been showing weakness and issues sustaining its current price for a few weeks now. It is a great company and a long term hold for me....but that CHIP industry is very erratic.....very boom and bust. I think this is the third time I have owned Nvidia....so....I have sold and re-bought a number of times myself.
     
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  20. Pmw55

    Pmw55 New Member

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    Hello,

    First off, let me thank you all for helping me with my portfolio since I've been following this forum for the past few months.

    I have a question regarding some of the "bad" stock purchases I've made and when it's appropriate to sell these ETFs/stocks. I'm not asking about what price (not opposed to it either) but more of a strategic discussion.

    My current approach is to hold until breakeven but starting to question this approach.

    The distressed stocks / (cost basis) are:
    1. ICLN - $30.78
    2. TAN - $108.10
    3. U - $135.56
    4. ABNB - $179.10
    5. CPNG - $48.25
    6. SUMO - $25.00
    7. IPOF - $11.79
    8. PSTH - $28.23
    9. COIN - $247.00
    10. ARKK - $134.38
    I'm open to any feedback from anyone. Thank you for your time.
     

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