The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Ask someone who runs a business how hard it is to find people who are willing to work.

    Your unemployed nephew will complain about the lack of jobs but offer him a couple of hundred to help you move and you will discover his dog ate his ambition.
     
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  2. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    WELL....I took my morning look at my account. I am now seeing the rally that I asked for last night......good solid gains. I am at an all time high....again....if I can hold onto it till the end of the day. I am +18.85% year to date. The SP500 is at +17.28%. Probably at least half of that gain....I did not calculate it......came about in the last 5 weeks or so. NICE to see.....but.....not a sure thing by any means.
     
  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    HELLO Pmw55....and....WELCOME. Glad to see you posting....please join us as an active poster if you wish.

    "My".......personal STYLE......on a losing position or bad bet....even if I bought it as a potential long term holding.....is to simply SELL it...... if I get to the point that I have lost confidence in it. I view.......trying to get back even.....as playing a losing game. I figure if I sell....I can put that money to work elsewhere...and........it is going to be more productive compared to holding on to a stock that I do not really want to own. I just chalk it up as a LATERAL move to some......other and....... BETTER......investment. If I am not sure what to buy....I sell and put the money into the SP500 Index as a way to keep the money exposed to the market and potential gains.

    Of course all the above assumes that I DO NOT want to hold that stock.....and.....that the reasoning that led me to buy it originally did not pan out as expected. Sometimes you just have to bite the bullet.

    To use your term......"breakeven"......I prefer to get back to "breakeven" by having the money in a BETTER investment. I do not have to get to "breakeven" in the same stock....I can do it.....hopefully quicker and better...... it in some other investment.

    BUT....this is not investing advice since I dont follow any of your holdings except for COIN.......and....I have no knowledge of your financial situation and investing goals, etc.

    I will say one thing....evaluate how long ago you bought all these stocks and funds.....and why you bought them.....and give some thought to whether you are chasing short term returns by buying the latest HOT stock. If so....this is a common way to end up getting whipsawed by the markets. A long term focus....on companies and funds with......long term potential is MY preference.

    Anyway....great to have you on the board.
     
    #6763 WXYZ, Jul 23, 2021
    Last edited: Jul 23, 2021
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  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    HOPEFULLY others on here will have some thoughts for Pmw55. Perhaps someone on here has some knowledge of some of the stocks in the list above. I dont follow them.......so.....my comments above are just GENERALITIES.
     
  5. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    not familiar with the symbols mentioned, but my advice is to click on forums at top of this page, then click search forums and input symbols. could be entire threads devoted to each symbol. if not, start a thread.
     
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  6. Pmw55

    Pmw55 New Member

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    Thank you, WXYZ. Pretty close to what I'd expect from you as always very helpful!

    To provide a bit of context, I've started managing my wife's portfolio from the start of the year and wanted to build up some profits before taking losses. I'm at a point now I've done really well in the past few months to build enough credibility with her to make these hard decisions.

    My holdings used to consist of over 30 ETFs/stocks but I've been following your strategy to invest in a handful of individual stocks and the other 50% in the S&P 500. Since, I've done well with companies such as Amazon, Google, Apple, Lululemon, and Nike.. Without your help and others on this forum as well.. I think I would be about 40 ETFs/stocks by this point.

    Hope everyone's enjoying the positive momentum this week. Have a great weekend!
     
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  7. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Maybe it's time to give investing a try?

    Find a well run company, buy a piece of it, and hold it for a long time. Good things, almost always, happen. If bad things happen, the company is not well run.
     
    #6767 TomB16, Jul 23, 2021
    Last edited: Jul 23, 2021
  8. Pmw55

    Pmw55 New Member

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    Thanks, Tom. I agree, my perspective is to invest in these companies as an owner.

    I'm trying to be strategic about selling off some underperforming stocks I regret purchasing or adopted from my wife's portfolio.

    For example, IPOF & PSTH were two of the worst purchases I regret. I'm embarrassed to admit I didn't understand SPACs well enough to purchase these stocks and It's even more unclear when is appropriate to sell them. These two in particular are completely speculative with no good measures other than following rumors about potential acquisitions. However, I feel like selling them for 25%+ losses without any material differences from when I purchased these also doesn't make a lot of sense.
     
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  9. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    i looked at the charts for IPOF and PSTH. sell them first thing monday and don't look back. welcome to the board. look forward to your input.
     
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  10. Pmw55

    Pmw55 New Member

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    Respectfully, could you provide some color on your findings? In particular, PSTH just took a big hit +/- 10% in the past month due to a failed UMG deal. From what I'm reading, it was blocked by the SEC under NYSE rules but was the drop in value justified assuming no real economic impact from a failed acquisition. Understandably the delay is hurting the value but it hurts to sell right after the bad news. Appreciate the feedback.
     
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  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Pmw55.....I would rather sell off a DOG and move on....compared to holding on to it and riding it down some more. I dont think you can make the assumption that a company that is down by 25% is necessarily going to go up.....it might just continue to go down. Or...it might just sit and do nothing.

    Personally if I had a stock that was down 25% that was a purchase that I regretted and was one of my worst.....and was bought on speculation and bought on rumor....that had not panned out so far.....I would NOT focus on the loss.

    I would focus on the most productive use for the MONEY that is siting there and the potential of that money to grow in something else compared to the BAD investment. My thinking would be:

    1. I can leave that money in a BAD investment and "hope" that I make back some of my lost 25%.
    or
    2. I can sell and take that same amount of money and put it in a GOOD investment and have a higher PROBABILITY of making back some of my 25% loss.

    In other words I would not get all caught up in the amount of the loss.....I would be looking for the best investment vehicle for those funds to make up the loss going forward and get back on the right track. In other words I would not....LINK....recovering the loss to the stock that caused it....when I could buy something with a MUCH HIGHER PROBABILITY of recovering the loss.

    By LINKING......making up the loss......to the ONE stock that caused it.....you are unnecessarily limiting your options and your thinking. You can make up that loss with the ENTIRE UNIVERSE of stocks and funds that are available to you....not just that one stock.
     
    #6771 WXYZ, Jul 23, 2021
    Last edited: Jul 23, 2021
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  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    WELL....I did get the RALLY that I requested yesterday. A very nice day.....of course...I was in the green. I also got a little beat in on the SP500 of 0.12%. NICE. AND....as an added bonus.....my account hit another all time high and a new milestone. A perfect end to the week.
     
  13. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    Another breaking news for me - I sold all my NOW shares right before the close.
    This week ended up being positive for me and I guess for most, but NOW has been as volatile a position as they get this year and I just can’t afford another nose dive for this company. Cashed in at 20% profits and see ya in the next life. If they ever do a split or get ahead of the competition I may revisit that stock but otherwise - sayonara!
    W, I bought NVDA at around 500 pre split so made a nice chunk a change when I sold today at 192 (which would be the equivalent of 768).
    So now I have all that money sitting in cash and waiting to be reinvested in some of my existing positions. I’m BETTING on volatility at this point - so this actually strengthens my sentiment of earlier posts this week - I have said that this year I felt that I stayed in one place without moving too much since the year has started - Will this change now and start moving upwards? I CERTAINLY hope so, I’ll gladly “take a hit” sitting on cash while watching the rest of my portfolio grow. But…. If things keep the course this year as far as the wild wild swings of 2021 are concerned, what with J-Pow and the crew blabbering about, media touting inflation fears, and more doom/gloom news about Delta limited edition collectors item variants, I’ll be waiting patiently for the next correction which shouldn’t be that far off around the corner.
    For comparison, I’m looking at the dollars index value today to see how much I will gain/lose while sitting on the cash. I know, not a good comparison, but a fun way to observe it while I wait.
     
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  14. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    I couldn’t avoid seeing that ALL of your stock picks are new ipos.
    My personal opinion is that I TOTALLY avoid new ipos which haven’t been in the market for at least 4-5 years. Just my opinion.
     
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  15. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    @Pmw55 , when i trade i'm pretty much a chartist. see below for classic head and shoulders pattern. that is the basis of my sell recommendation.

    upload_2021-7-23_14-10-27.png

    upload_2021-7-23_14-11-59.png


    The head and shoulders pattern is believed to be one of the most reliable trend reversal patterns. It is one of several top patterns that signal, with varying degrees of accuracy, that an upward trend is nearing its end.
     
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  16. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    SO.....we had a GREAT week this week. HERE is what the markets did:

    DOW year to date +14.56%
    DOW for the week +1.08%

    SP500 year to date +17.46%
    SP500 for the week +1.96%

    NASDAQ 100 year to date +17.25%
    NASDAQ 100 for the week +2.93%

    NASDAQ year to date +15.12%
    NASDAQ for the week +2.84%

    RUSSELL year to date +11.89%
    RUSSELL for the week +2.15%

    So I have a reference in this thread in regards to my new milestone today......I am now at a gain for the year of +19.21%.....too bad it is not the end of the year. I would take that for a year any time. I DO NOT expect to maintain this for the rest of the year.....I do anticipate at least one correction this year and who knows what market sectors will RULE over the next 5 months.
     
    #6776 WXYZ, Jul 23, 2021
    Last edited: Jul 23, 2021
  17. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Zukodany.

    NEVER look a profit in the mouth......or....a gift horse either. You made 20% on NOW and you made 54% on Nvidia. You decided to sell and capture those profits and move on. End of story......and.....a very successful result. NOW (not the stock)....it is onward and upward....hopefully in something else that becomes a multi year long term holding for you.

    I am not advising this....but you know me....fully invested all the time.....all in all at once. When I have cash as you do right now.....I would either put it to work in a stock that I have been wishing to buy......OR.....I would put it to work in the SP500 Index Fund. The academic research tells me that being fully invested all the time.....and going all in all at once will....."PROBABLY"...beat waiting for an entry point later and being out of the market. EVEN if....the market seems high at the time. That has also been my lifetime experience. BUT......that is me.....I know that MOST PEOPLE do not and can not invest in this way. So I am not recommending it. Just throwing it out there for readers to consider.....in theory.
     
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  18. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    That is an astute observation about all the NEW IPO's.......Zukodany. They are very dangerous. Once in a while....I will play a stock split or an IPO....but it has to be SPECIAL....with potential for HUGE momentum. When I do I also.....SEVERELY......limit my exposure to a very short time.....like the lead up to the split......or.....the first day of the IPO.

    Even than I might get caught......like I did in COIN.......discussed earlier in this thread. I got caught up watching TV the day of the IPO and missed my single opportunity to get out with about a $5000 profit the first day. I had to quickly sell......at a small loss......when the direction went down from there. YES.....I CUT AND RAN....but in hindsight that was the right choice compared to RIDING it down.

    I WILL say it now....when GOOGLE or AMAZON do a split I will probably do a short term play.....between the split announcement and the split day......of course, my thinking might change by than......so NO GUARANTEE.
     
  19. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Pmw55. In general......sounds like you are doing well with your wife's account. Stick around and continue to post.....always good to have another "regular".
     
  20. Pmw55

    Pmw55 New Member

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