The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I saw the TESLA plant that is under construction in Austin.....when I was out in that area yesterday. What a MASSIVE complex of structures. The outside of the buildings is moving toward basic completion. Every time I see the site there has been significant progress. It is happening very quickly.
     
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  2. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    For a long time now the ....real....guts of the markets have been the "little people".......the silent majority....the retail investor.

    Stock Bulls Look Toward $17 Trillion Burning a Hole in Pockets

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-bulls-look-toward-17-162752226.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

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    "(Bloomberg) -- In the stock market, the refusal of retail investors to back down from every macro threat has become the only story. When will it end? Judging by the size of all the pools of cash lying around, it could be a while.

    Among all the economic stories of the pandemic, the one about money piling up in people’s accounts has been the most significant in the stock market, where the S&P 500 just notched its seventh gain in nine weeks. Money market accounts, viewed in some circles as a “dry powder” reserve for equity deployment, sit at just under $4.5 trillion. A more obscure balance, the Federal Reserve’s count of money on deposit with commercial banks, has risen 33% from 2019 to $17 trillion.

    While none of the money is completely unencumbered and professionals tend to hate the concept of “cash on the sidelines,” something is arming the day-trader cadres who seem bent on letting no market selloff last more than 24 hours. Take Monday, for example, when fears the delta variant would upend progress sent the S&P 500 down as much as 2.2%. Dip buyers ran to the rescue then and the rest of the week, sending the S&P 500 higher by almost 2% through Friday, despite virus cases still spiking.

    “We have investors who are eager to deploy cash,” said Sara Rajo-Miller, investment advisor at Miracle Mile Advisors. “People sometimes forget how much power retail investors can have over the market, and we’ve seen that play out clearly. That momentum can really push stocks higher.”

    How powerful is the retail cannon? On Monday alone, they bought a record $2.2 billion worth of equities, with the biggest exchange-traded fund tracking the S&P 500, ticker SPY, alone notching an all-time high of $482 million in retail purchases, according to Vanda Research. An analysis from DataTrek Research showed that Google searches in the U.S. that day for the phrase “dow jones” -- the term most associated with stock market investing, according to the firm -- spiked when stocks declined quickly, peaking at 1 p.m. in New York.

    It’s almost like investors are seasoned to say, stocks are down, it’s got to be a buying opportunity,” said Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Financial Group. “Part of that is because there’s no other game in town right now. You look at bond yields so low, cryptocurrencies struggling, other parts of the market are not that great.”

    The unending appetite for stocks led equity ETFs to break their annual record in April, and the pace hasn’t slowed since. In July, the products have already taken in more than $15 billion, helping fuel total ETF inflows to the brink of a full-year record, with more than five months to go.

    Still, other measures of retail prowess show a mixed picture. Data from Charles Schwab shows that the percentage of cash in their clients’ brokerages accounts in June fell to 10.5%, the lowest since 2018.

    “That probably suggests that the dry powder has been put to work over the course of the year, but maybe it’s not entirely out of fuel for further investment,” said Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist for Charles Schwab & Co. “There’s still a good bit of momentum and desire to put money to work and look for alternatives to the bond market which remains relatively unattractive.”

    Retail money fund balances still have $1 trillion versus $643 billion in 2015, according to DataTrek, with analysts calculating that there’s $400 billion in “buy the dip” cash ready for the next drawdown. Plus, retail-favorite Robinhood has 13 million more funded accounts than it did before the pandemic.

    “The buy-the-dip mentality is the one the Fed has taught institutional and retail investors to follow, and the Fed remains hyper easy,” said Jim Smigiel, chief investment officer of SEI. “The biggest positive out there is that the easy stance from the Fed is in place and every other central bank and is going to be in place for quite some time.”"

    MY COMMENT

    YES......the silent majority.....of investors are very SMART. It is the PROFESSIONALS that always lead the panic.....not the retail investors. It is not hard to research the physical symptoms and severity of the Delta virus....very mild stuff. People are not dumb......they know where and how to use their money to invest for the future. The typical retail investor is NOT a trader......they are a long term investor. There is STILL a lot of money SLOSHING AROUND out there looking for a home. Much of it will end up in the markets as the economy continues to re-open and people get fully back to work and life.

    Look at the charts above....especially the second chart. There is a HISTORIC amount of CASH siting in money market accounts earning NOTHING. That money will eventually make its way into a more productive investment vehicle......with a good CHUNK (investment term of art) going into stocks and funds.
     
  3. rg7803

    rg7803 Well-Known Member

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    Thanks Emmet.
    I am just here to help and give a complementary view, not to convince anyone.
    I am greatfull for all I have been learning here in this forum and in a general way in HotStockMarket (now Stockholics).
    Don´t mean to disturb nobody!
    Keep having a great weekend all of you.
     
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  4. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Stop disturbing us! :biggrin:
     
  5. rg7803

    rg7803 Well-Known Member

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    Ok Brew Master I will crawl back to my hole (again) :biggrin:
     
  6. oldmanram

    oldmanram Active Member

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    You guys are bad :)
     
  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Disturb away....RG. There is nothing in this thread that says......NO TECHNICAL ANALYSIS. I might not believe in it.....but others may be interested.
     
  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Here is what we are looking at this week:

    Big Tech earnings, Federal Reserve decision: What to know this week

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-...ecision-what-to-know-this-week-154324205.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Traders are gearing up for a busy week of corporate earnings results from the mega-cap technology stocks this week. This will come alongside a slew of economic data reports and a monetary policy decision from the Federal Reserve.

    The biggest names in the S&P 500 — including Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Facebook (FB) and Alphabet (GOOGL) — are set to report second-quarter results this week. The reports will add to what has already been an exceptional earnings season: So far, 24% of companies in the S&P 500 have reported second-quarter results, and of these, 88% have topped Wall Street's earnings per shares estimates, according to an analysis from FactSet. The blended earnings growth rate for the blue-chip index, which includes both companies' reported growth rates and the estimated rates for the companies have yet to report, stands at 74.2%, which would be the highest since the fourth quarter of 2009.

    Earnings results from technology companies Snap (SNAP) and Twitter (TWTR) last week underscored the strength in the internet advertising market, suggesting a strong backdrop that likely also benefitted bigger ad-driven companies like Facebook and Alphabet. Snap's second-quarter revenue growth came in at 116%, or the biggest jump in four years, and the stock rocketed to a record high following the results. Both Snap and Twitter grew active users more than expected, and their estimates topping second-quarter revenues suggested better monetization of these increased users.

    According to JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth, Snap's results especially "will likely raise the bar for other ad names," including Alphabet and Facebook. The companies report results on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.

    "GOOGL shares are well-owned, but GOOGL remains one of our Top Ideas in 2021 as we believe: 1) reopening will remain a tailwind for Search and YouTube ads, especially as overall spend continues to shift online and travel continues to recover; 2) overall margins will remain meaningfully above pre-pandemic levels ... 3) Cloud growth will remain solid at 40%+ while profit losses continue to improve; and 4) greater capital returns are likely on the heels of the $50 billion incremental buyback authorization last quarter," Anmuth wrote in a note published July 22.

    As for Facebook, "advertising should continue to benefit from reopening and we are encouraged by newer initiatives around Reels and Shops, as well as the creator economy, audio, and AR/VR [augmented reality/virtual reality] a bit further out," Anmuth added.

    Alphabet has been the best performer of the Big Tech FAANG stocks so far in 2021, with shares rising 52% compared to the S&P 500's 17.5% gain for the year-to-date. As a company that derives meaningful revenue from travel-related advertising revenue, Alphabet has been viewed as a key beneficiary of the broader economic reopening that began to occur in the spring of this year. Other software names, by contrast, have generally been viewed as bigger beneficiaries of a stay-at-home and work-from-home environment.

    Alphabet's second-quarter revenue, excluding traffic acquisition costs (TAC), is expected to grow 46% to $46.1 billion, according to Bloomberg data, which would mark the fastest top-line growth for the company since the fourth quarter of 2012.

    Still, other online advertisers are also poised to get a boost from the reopening environment, with marketers more open to spend as pandemic-related uncertainty eased. Facebook's revenues likely grew 49% over last year to $27.9 billion for the second quarter, accelerating slightly from the 48% rate in the first three months of 2021. That growth would come even as the company continues to contend with some decreased ad-targeting abilities after a recent Apple update that allowed users to opt out of tracking in apps including Facebook on iOS devices.

    And Apple, for its part, likely also had a strong fiscal third-quarter, according to Wall Street's estimates. Though consensus analysts expect to see that revenue growth slowed sequentially to 24% from the second quarter's 54%, a boost from Apple's latest iPhone upgrade cycle will likely still be at play, according to Wedbush analyst Dan Ives.

    "While the chip shortage was an overhang for Apple during the quarter, we believe the iPhone and Services strength in the quarter neutralized any short term weakness that the Street was anticipating three months ago," Ives said in a note published July 21. "Taking a step back we believe based on our recent Asia supply chain checks that iPhone 13 demand will be similar/slightly stronger than iPhone 12 out of the gates which speaks to our thesis that this elongated 'supercycle' will continue for Cupertino well into 2022."

    Meanwhile, e-commerce behemoth Amazon is heading into its first-ever earnings report without founder Jeff Bezos at the helm. The stock has underperformed so far in 2021, rising 12.3% for the year-to-date, after jumping by more than 76% in 2020 amid a pandemic-fueled boom in e-commerce demand.

    "We expect strong top-line growth in '21, albeit decelerating versus pandemic-charged '20, led by e-commerce growth of +27% y/y (vs. +42% y/y), including a strong 2Q and solid growth in 3Q-4Q as AMZN comps the pandemic surge," Cowen analyst John Blackledge wrote in a note.

    An early Prime Day sales extravaganza is poised to help boost Amazon's second-quarter top-line growth. The two-day event took place in late June this year, or at the end of the second quarter, compared to July 2019 and October 2020. And on the bottom-line, Amazon's faster-growing, high-margin Amazon Web Services (AWS) cloud computing platform likely continued to help boost profitability.

    Federal Reserve decision
    The Federal Reserve kicks off its latest two-day meeting on Tuesday, with a monetary policy decision and press conference from Fed Chair Jerome Powell set to take place Wednesday afternoon.

    The Fed's June monetary policy statement and updated Summary of Economic Projections were taken as much less accommodative than many market participants expected, with the central bank raising its median forecasts for U.S. economic growth and core inflation over the next two years. The projections suggested the Fed might be more inclined to adjust policy in light of a fast-recovering economy experiencing rising inflation.

    The Fed's first monetary policy move would impact the central bank's quantitative easing program, with asset purchases still taking place at a rate of $120 billion per month. Powell's discussions around these purchases have shifted throughout his recent public appearances, suggesting more serious consideration among FOMC members to announce the start of tapering. In April, for instance, Powell said the economy was "a long way from" achieving the Fed's employment and inflation targets that would trigger a pivot to less accommodative monetary policy. But after the Fed's June meeting, Powell said the economy was "still a ways off" from the central bank's goals.

    "Next week’s FOMC meeting should be less eventful than June’s hawkishly-perceived meeting. There will be no new interest rate forecasts ‘dots’ so attention will focus on the post-meeting statement and Chair Powell’s press conference," JPMorgan economist Michael Feroli wrote in a note. "We believe the statement’s wording around asset purchases will be unchanged, but we expect that Powell will relate that the Committee discussed tapering again and that the economy is slowly getting closer to passing the 'substantial further progress' test to actually start tapering.

    However, in the weeks since the Fed's June meeting, more concerns arose around the Delta variant of the coronavirus, which triggered a sell-off in markets last week and which might increase monetary policymakers' perceptions of the risks still present in the economy. At the same time, however, the risk that fast-rising inflation might need to be curbed with a monetary policy adjustment has also increased, with core consumer prices and producer prices each rising faster-than-expected in June.

    But on net, the Fed is likely to maintain a wait-and-see approach before making any adjustments, according to Feroli.

    "Powell’s mid-July Congressional testimony raised the prospect that the FOMC statement would introduce an asymmetric policy bias: standing prepared to adjust policy if the Fed 'saw signs that the path of inflation or longer-term inflation expectations were moving materially and persistently beyond levels consistent with our goal,'" Feroli said. "Since that testimony the rise of the Delta variant has injected some downside growth risks into the outlook, and this should help the doves argue for retaining the current symmetric policy bias."

    Earnings Calendar
    • Monday: Lockheed Martin (LMT) before market open; Tesla (TSLA) after market close
    • Tuesday: Centene (CNC), UPS (UPS), 3M (MMM), SiriusXM Holdings (SIRI), Sherwin-Williams (SHW), General Electric (GE), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), Polaris (PII), Waste Management Inc (WM), Boston Scientific Corp (BSX), JetBlue (JBLU), Fiserv (FISV), Raytheon Technologies (RTX), Invesco (IVZ), Lamb Weston Holdings (LW) before market open; Apple (AAPL), Starbucks (SBUX), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Alphabet (GOOGL), Teladoc Health (TDOC), Visa (V), Microsoft (MSFT), Mondelez International (MDLZ), Juniper Networks (JNPR), The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) after market close
    • Wednesday: Humana (HUM), CME Group (CME), Pfizer (PFE), McDonald's (MCD), Six Flags Entertainment (SIX), Boeing (BA), Moody's Corp (MCO), General Dynamics Corp (GD), Teledyne Technologies (TDY), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) before market open; Facebook (FB), Ford (F), Xilinx (XLNX), PayPal (PYPL), ServiceNow (NOW), Lam Research Corp (LRCX), Align Technology (ALGN) after market close
    • Thursday: Merck & Co (MRK), Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), T Rowe Price Group (TROW), Comcast Corp (CMCSA), Spirit Airlines (SAVE), Valero Energy (VLO), Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT), The Carlyle Group (CG), Mastercard (MA), Molson Coors Beverage Co (TAP), Keurig Dr. Pepper (KDP), Yum! Brands (YUM), PG&E (PCG), Citrix Systems (CTXS), S&P Global Inc (SPGI) before market open; Amazon (AMZN), Overstock.com (OSTK), Albertsons Co (ACI), Altria Group (MO), T-Mobile (TMUS), World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE), Twilio (TWLO), Pinterest (PINS), Mohawk Industries (MHK), Upwork (UPWK), Skyworks Solutions (SWKS), United States Steel (X), Gilead Sciences (GILD),
    • Friday: Caterpillar (CAT), VF Corp (VFC), Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM), Chevron Corp (CVX), Danimer Scientific (DNMR), Procter & Gamble (PG), AbbVie (ABBV), Charter Communications (CHTR) before market open
    Economic Calendar
    • Monday: New home sales, month-on-month, June (4.0% expected, -5.9% in May); Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index, July (32.3 expected, 31.1 in June)
    • Tuesday: Durable goods orders, June preliminary (2.0% expected, 2.3% in May); Durable goods orders excluding transportation, June preliminary (0.8% expected, 0.3% in May); Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, June preliminary (0.8% expected, 0.1% in May); Non-defense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft, June preliminary (0.8% expected, 1.1% in May); FHFA House Price Index, month-on-month, May (1.6% expected, 1.8% in April); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, month-on-month, May (1.50% expected, 1.62% in April); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, year-on-year, May (16.20% expected, 14.88% in April); Conference Board Consumer Confidence, July (124.0 expected, 127.3 in June); Richmond Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index, July (20 expected, 22 in June)
    • Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended July 23 (-4.0% during prior week); Advance Goods Trade Balance, June (-$88.0 billion expected, -$88.1 billion in May); Wholesale Inventories, month-on-month, June preliminary (1.1% expected, 1.3% in May); FOMC Monetary Policy Decision
    • Thursday: Initial jobless claims, week ended July 24 (380,000 expected, 419,000 during prior week); Continuing claims, week ended July 17 (3.192 million expected, 3.236 million during prior week; GDP annualized, quarter-on-quarter, second quarter (8.5% expected, 6.4% in first quarter); Personal consumption, second quarter (10.5% expected, 11.4% in first quarter); Core personal consumption expenditures, quarter-over-quarter, second quarter (6.0% expected, 2.5% in first quarter); Pending home sales, month-on-month, June (0.5% expected, 8.0% in May)
    • Friday: Personal income, June (-0.4% expected, -2.0% in May); Personal spending, June (0.7% expected, 0.0% in May); PCE deflator, month-on-month, June (0.6% expected, 0.4% in May); PCE deflator, year-on-year, June (4.0% expected, 3.9% in May); PCE core deflator, month-on-month, June (0.6% expected, 0.4% in May); PCE core deflator, year-on-year, June (3.7% expected, 3.4% in May); University of Michigan Sentiment, July final (80.8 expected, 80.8 in prior print) "

    MY COMMENT

    YES....all the big boys report this week. UNFORTUNATELY....we also have the.....cant shut up FED......talking and taking the focus away from the earnings. A perfect situation for the earnings to be IGNORED.
     
  9. duckleberry_fin

    duckleberry_fin New Member

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    Two questions for you folks to start off the week:

    1. What's your opinion on ESG investing?
    2. Are there companies that, despite good fundamentals, you wouldn't (or don't intend to) invest in due to reasons unrelated to fundamentals?
     
  10. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    duckleberry_fin

    DEFINITELY, there are some entire business areas that I avoid......Health CARE, Drug Companies, Auto Companies, Financial Companies and Banks. In other words BOOM and BUST type businesses that tend to be driven by factors outside their business especially government actions and regulation. There may even be a few more that I am not thinking about at this moment.

    I tend to FOCUS on the BIG CAP consumer companies of various types......I think this sort of company is more STABLE and driven by the actual company fundamentals rather than economic events, government, regulation, etc, etc. People tend to use and purchase their products on a routine basis.
     
  11. oldmanram

    oldmanram Active Member

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    Duckleberry fin:

    I made a nice little profit in cnrg , Kensho Clean Power, got in before the election, sold at around the high 140,
    It's now back down to 96 , the hype is gone so it may be a buy again.
    Personally I prefer buying companies that are good to planet earth,
    But I still own some PM from back in the day
     
  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    As to ESG investing......ABSOLUTELY NOT.....I have no interest in outside factors that have NOTHING to do with the actual business of a company. In addition I consider this FAD investing which I try to avoid. In my personal view.....much of this sort of stuff is simply fad driven irrationality and does not "follow" science or business rationality. It ALSO tends to bring POLITICS into investing. I am not into "FEEL GOOD" investing. I invest for one reason....to make money.

    BUT.....I understand others may not agree and may like to do this sort of thing. Since it is their money.......and everyone has to do what is right for them......that is fine with me.
     
    duckleberry_fin likes this.
  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Another little note for those that like to invest with the Chinese government.

    China's escalating crackdown on business is moving stocks

    https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/26/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "London (CNN Business)The whims of regulators in Beijing have always posed a risk to investors looking to tap into growth in China, the world's second largest economy. But navigating a worsening crackdown on private business is becoming increasingly tricky.

    What's happening: After humbling many of the country's top technology companies, including Alibaba and Didi, Chinese officials have turned their attention to the education sector.
    New rules published over the weekend take aim at fast-growing tutoring companies, barring them from turning a profit or raising funding on stock markets. The announcement from China's Ministry of Education has wiped billions of dollars off the market value of several major, publicly-traded education firms.

    Asian markets were also broadly shaken Monday. The Hang Seng index fell more than 4%, its worst day in more than a year. The Shanghai Composite slumped more than 2%.

    New Oriental Education & Technology is also listed in New York, where shares fell 54% on Friday. New York-listed TAL Education crashed some 70%, losing more than $9 billion, while Gaotu dropped more than 60%, erasing $1.5 billion in value.

    The chaos is part of a wider clampdown on private Chinese businesses that's making investors nervous. The government has taken forceful action against some of the country's best-known tech names, such as ride-hailing service Didi. Regulators announced they were investigating the company just after its high-profile US IPO last month.

    The S&P/BNY Mellon China Select ADR Index, which tracks American depository receipts of top US-listed Chinese firms, is down 7.5% in the past week and 24% so far this year. (For comparison, the S&P 500 is up 17.5% year-to-date.)

    And there are signs Beijing's work isn't done. Shares of Meituan, China's largest food delivery service, plummeted on Monday after the government posted notices that online food platforms must treat their workers better, Bloomberg reports. The company was already under investigation for potentially violating anti-monopoly laws.

    Analysts at Nomura said in a research note that the latest developments have "the potential to further dent foreign investors' confidence in China stocks."

    "Bruised and shaken investors are now likely to ponder which other areas could potentially become the next target of expanded state control," they wrote."

    MY COMMENT

    I assume any ESG investors do NOT invest in any Chinese companies....since they are the worlds most brutal communist dictatorship.

    The above is a real issue for investors that hold any Chinese companies.
     
  14. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    WELL....at least we are open for the week. Between the FED, the virus fear mongering, the "growth concerns", and other BS.....there is good potential that the historic TECH earnings will be trashed and ignored this week. Typical stuff.

    The FOCUS of the markets and financial news business has been distinctly NEGATIVE for the past 6 months or more. Emphasizing every potential negative......"possibility"...... while IGNORING the ACTUAL positives or explaining them away. Meanwhile......"they"...... wonder why the markets continue to be up......and....why actual investors do not see what they "think" they are seeing.

    Today we are seeing the TYPICAL wishy-washy open. A continuation of the recent market pattern. Fine with me....since.....this narrow, shallow, summer market has produced great gains in spite of the constant DISRESPECT of the strength of business.
     
  15. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    AND....good news for Bitcoin and crypto investors......a sudden SURGE back up to the$38,000 to $39,000 level.
     
  16. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    WELL....at least we have now improved to a mixed market. BUT....not helping me at the moment.....I am showing 7 of 10 positions in the red.......for a small loss so fat today.
     
  17. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    HERE......is the story line of the day. This stuff drives the markets short term.

    Stock market news live updates: Stocks decline amid renewed virus, growth concerns

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-july-26-2021-114525679.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR What I consider important content)

    "Stocks fell Monday, with lingering concerns over the growth outlook at least temporarily outweighing optimism over a strong second-quarter earnings season.

    The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq each declined at the open, but came off lows of the overnight session. The three major indexes each set record closing highs on Friday, shaking off a sell-off at the start of last week as worries over the Delta variant increased.

    Cyclical stocks including airlines, cruise lines, lodging companies and oil majors were some of the biggest decliners Monday morning, underscoring some of the ongoing jitters around the strength of the economic recovery as shares most closely set to benefit from further reopenings pulled back. Treasuries rose further to push yields lower, and the benchmark 10-year yield dropped to trade below 1.3%.

    Some strategists suggested the risk-off move in markets would prove temporary.

    "We think the Delta variant should pose a minimal risk to the U.S. equity market," Goldman Sachs U.S. equity strategist David Kostin wrote in a note Monday. "From an economic perspective, widespread vaccinations and strategies focused on containment suggest limited medical and economic downside even if infections continue to rise."

    "From a flows perspective, robust household cash balances and corporate buyback authorizations should continue to support inflows for equities, increasing the likelihood that market participants perceive a pullback as a buying opportunity," he added.

    Later this week, investors will hear from Federal Reserve officials over the path forward for monetary policy, which will likely be informed by the increased concerns over the Delta variant and peaking economic growth rates. Many are betting that these downside risks will overshadow worries over inflation, leaving central bankers in a wait-and-see mode before announcing any changes to their crisis-era asset purchase program and near-zero interest rate policies.

    "[Federal Reserve Chair Jerome] Powell’s mid-July Congressional testimony raised the prospect that the statement would introduce an asymmetric policy bias: standing prepared to adjust policy if the Fed 'saw signs that the path of inflation or longer-term inflation expectations were moving materially and persistently beyond levels consistent with our goal,'" JPMorgan economist Michael Feroli wrote in a note.

    "Since that testimony the rise of the delta variant has injected some downside growth risks into the outlook, and this should help the doves argue for retaining the current symmetric policy bias," which would focus on creating conditions to maximize employment while also keeping inflation in check, he added.

    Traders are also set to focus on a packed schedule of corporate earnings results this week, which will include mega-cap technology companies like Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) in addition to a host of other companies including UPS (UPS), 3M (MMM), Starbucks (SBUX) and Boeing (BA).

    Earnings season so far has been especially strong, helping support the indexes' march to new all-time highs even in light of recent economic concerns. So far, 24% of companies in the S&P 500 have reported second-quarter results, and of these, 88% have topped Wall Street's earnings per shares estimates, according to an analysis from FactSet as of Friday. The blended earnings growth rate for the blue-chip index, which includes both companies' reported growth rates and the estimated rates for the companies have yet to report, stands at 74.2%, which would be the highest since the fourth quarter of 2009."

    MY COMMENT

    OBVIOUSLY much of what I post on here is short term.....STUFF. I like to keep up with the day to day story line impacting the short term markets.

    BUT.......I DO NOT invest as a short term investor.....or....based on this sort of stuff. I AM a long term fundamental based investor and WILL continue to be so for the rest of my life for as long as I am able to invest.

    SO......I continue to be fully invested for the long term as usual.
     
  18. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    The FED and TAPERING.......it is going to happen BEFORE rates start to go back up. AND....there will be a TAPER TANTRUM for a short time when it happens. At this point I dont even think it is having much of an impact on the REAL economy.

    HERE....is some info and a little explanation article:

    • Tapering is the theoretical reversal of quantitative easing (QE) policies, which are implemented by a central bank and intended to stimulate economic growth.
    • Tapering refers specifically to the initial reduction in the purchasing of and accumulation of central bank assets.
    • As a result of their dependence on sustained monetary stimulus under QE, the financial markets may experience a downturn in response to tapering; this is known as a "taper tantrum."
    • Taper tantrums may lead central banks to promptly re-accelerate asset purchases (and essentially reverse the process of tapering).
    • Central banks, for the most part, have not been able to sustainably unwind their expanded balance sheets.
    Tapering
    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/tapering.asp

    MY COMMENT

    When this happens it will be a NON-EVENT for most investors.....that have a horizan of more then a month or two.
     
    TomB16 likes this.
  19. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    AKA: A buy opportunity.
     
    Jwalker likes this.
  20. oldmanram

    oldmanram Active Member

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    Hi ,
    Started the day in the red a little bit, went down for awhile , now up in positive territory.
    The market seems to have digested Fridays close , and is slowly munching on that, to positive gains.
    Technically speaking that is :rofl:

    Had another little surprise in my "FORGOTTEN ACCOUNT"
    Seems Etrade was picked up by Morgan Stanley last year,
    So I guess I own some more banking stock , as if CITI wasn't enough
     
    #6820 oldmanram, Jul 26, 2021
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2021
    emmett kelly likes this.

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