I HATE to even mention George Soros......BUT.....to add more info in reply to TomB16 and his question above. The article below contains some of the investing strategy and philosophy of George Soros......even though I DESPISE the man and what he is doing around and to the world.....I do follow some of the same strategy and belief: https://seekingalpha.com/article/131931-eleven-trading-tips-from-george-soros (BOLD represents what I do in my investing process in addition to what I have posted above) Some people spend all day talking to their brokers. Soros “prefers to talk to a select few people who can be really helpful ….” Then you need to think and read and reflect. To be successful, you need leisure. You need time hanging heavily on your hands [to talk to people, read, and think]. If you have an investment thesis you like, run it by people who support the other side of the argument. See if you still like the thesis afterward. Basically, the way Soros operates is to have a thesis and then he tests it in the market. If the market goes against his position and he feels uneasy (e.g. gets a backache), he cuts his losses. What he took was basic information from various sources and kind of mulched it in his mind. Then he would come up with a thesis that most of the time was valid. When Soros believed he was right … no investment position was too large. Holding back was for wimps. The worst error in Soros’ book was not being too bold. The key to investing is knowing how to survive. That means at times playing conservatively, cutting losses when necessary and keeping a large portion of one’s portfolio out of play. If you are doing poorly, retrench. Don’t try to recoup. And when you start again, start small. To be in the game, you have to be willing to endure the pain. Perhaps Soros’ most distinctive feature, the trait that explained his investment talents the best, was his ability to gain membership in a very ‘exclusive ‘ club that included the leadership of the international community…. Such encounters clearly gave Soros an advantage over other investors. Invest first and then investigate … form a hypothesis, take a toehold position to test the hypothesis, and wait for the market to prove you are right or wrong. MY COMMENT PLEASE.......do NOT take the above to mean that I am a trader or anything like Soros. But I do agree with and practice the parts that I have put into BOLD.
There seems to be a trend that all of the best investors are voracious readers. I really appreciate the time you put into your response. It has been very informative. Thank you.
Thanks for the nice response WXYZ. Yes, I do work in law enforcement. I first posted in here a few months ago about my budget and general investing approach. I have been following this thread for a while. Very informative. I have no where near the business intellect or experience Tom and you possess but I enjoy staying up to date with the market and growing my portfolio. For me it is a labor of love, hobby. The largest chunk of my income goes to my 459 and any extra funds go towards my TD Ameritrade and M1 accounts. No reason to keep extra funds in a .2% interest checking account beyond monthly expenditures and emergency fund . I do hold shares in VOO, QQQ, SPY to hedge my single stock purchases. My attitude has always been to buy and hold. I do not plan to take any proceeds from my accounts for the next 20 years. I have made my share of stupid picks since I started in 2010 but they have allowed me a good learning experience. My approach in selecting stocks is much more amateur. I use Zacks as a screener. I take a look at P/E ratio and how long the company has been increasing it’s dividend yield. I do hold quite a few “growth” tech stocks but am becoming more interested in dividend yield as a top requirement. I enjoy reading comments and banter on MarketWatch. My goal is to accumulate about 40 solid dividend yielding companies and contribute to those positions regularly. Currently I hold about 20. I’ll share my holdings in a later post.
Very impressive Weight. I see too many people like you that have a good pension that just rely on their pension and never invest much over their lives. They might have a nice pension, but they are still living month to month on a regular check when they retire. You have the focus and insight to invest and will build up a large pool of money by the time you are 20-30 years down the road......in addition to your pension. Your planing will provide a lifestyle far above just living month to month on a pension check. I thought you sounded like law enforcement. I have a couple in my immediate family. If you started in 2010, you had very nice timing. You have been able to RIDE the greatest BULL MARKET in history for the past 10 years. Just be aware that you are now SPOILED. There will be times in your investing life that things are not as easy. The key is to continue and hold in there for the LONG TERM.
Since my December 11 post about a SANTA CLAUSE RALLY.....we are Up nicely. At the moment: SP500 year to date +28.50% DOW year to date +21.98% We are now 5.4% gain away from DOW 30,000. Definitely possible by the end of the year if the current RALLY holds. AND.......ALL economic data is lined up for that continuation. We are closing in on this being the best year for theSP500 in the last 21 years. I will say again......probably for the LAST time this year........MERRY CHRISTMAS, HAPPY HOLIDAYS, AND HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL ON THIS BOARD. It has been a GREAT 2019 for investors of all types. May we ALL achieve our investing goals in the new year. I will be somewhat out of touch over the next week so not sure if I will get the chance to post much. THANK YOU to ALL that post on this investing forum. I enjoy reading what you ALL post.
ONCE IN A WHILE I like to make little predictions for fun and relaxation. I am on a roll right now: In a post December 11 I predicted that the Santa Clause rally will start "tomorrow"......It DID and has continued ever since. Lets hope we get a good week to end the year and kick us into 2020. In a post November 15 I predicted Dow 30,240 by year end. I am close but a little short at the moment. Right now we are at DOW 28,645. I need another 5.5% to get there by year end..............time is running out. If I get lucky I might get another 1 to 1.5% by year end. BUT.......we have had a significant run up in the DOW this year and this Christmas season. AND.....at the moment EVERYTHING, and I do mean EVERYTHING, is lined up for the most positive start to the new year that I have seen in decades. I will post more about this with data in the near future, but it seems like EVERY economic indicator is very positive, Christmas was great for retail, the general economy is BOOMING, and to TOP IT OFF there is not the slightest irrational exuberance in the markets at all. EVERYTHING is lined up for a great January kick off to 2020.
I cant remember a year end going into the new year that was more ROBUST and EXCITING as what we are experiencing right now. EVERYTHING is lined up for another KICK ASS year in 2020. The ONLY negative I see is the fact that things are so positive, perhaps they are too positive. Of course, the election will be an issue. BUT for now, what I see as MASSIVELY POSITIVE is the following: Stocks had a stellar year in 2019 https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/28/investing/stock-market-rally-2019/index.html Stocks close at historic highs, Nasdaq finishes above 9,000 points for the first time https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/26/investing/nasdaq-record-9000/index.html Why this is the 'most hated' bull market of all time https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/26/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html Ignore the So-Called Experts; They Keep Getting It Wrong https://www.realclearpolitics.com/a...xperts_they_keep_getting_it_wrong_142037.html The Coming Boom in Millennial Wealth https://www.forbes.com/sites/charle...oming-boom-in-millennial-wealth/#44e625ad30a5 Super Saturday sales the latest sign Trump’s economy is unstoppable https://nypost.com/2019/12/26/super-saturday-sales-the-latest-sign-trumps-economy-is-unstoppable/ Two Years In, Tax Cuts and Jobs Act An Obvious Success https://www.realclearmarkets.com/20...s_and_jobs_act_an_obvious_success_228934.html Stocks in 'Silent Melt-Up' Because of Unlikely Recession, Evercore ISI's Debusschere Says https://finance.yahoo.com/video/stocks-silent-melt-because-unlikely-154735665.html Why Wall Street sees the stock market on the verge of a ‘melt-up’ https://finance.yahoo.com/m/31561380-bb26-3784-9126-4088d5a5172a/why-wall-street-sees-the.html Low-earning Americans are seeing the biggest wage gains in a decade https://www.foxbusiness.com/money/wages-low-earning-americans-rising-fastest-pace-decade Auto sales heading for a record month? https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/auto-sales-heading-for-another-record The best gift Americans got this year? A good economy. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...9e8486-28d9-11ea-b2ca-2e72667c1741_story.html No snowflakes here: U.S. consumers will keep the economy humming through 2020 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/n...p-the-economy-humming-through-2020-2019-12-28 MY COMMENT AND.........on and on, and on, and on, and on, etc, etc, etc. From the broad to the narrow, from the big to the small, from the local to the national, we are PRIMED for 2020. As I said the only negatives........the election and TOO MUCH good stuff. I feel sorry for those that let their POLITICAL views influence their investing life. A SURE way to disaster. YES......we will probably have a correction or two or three in 2020, and we might even have a short time period where the MEDIA is pushing their usual RECESSION BS........BUT........if I had to choose between starting a year with where we are right now and some alternative........well.....no comparison. ALL aspects of the economic indicators are extremely positive. From single stocks to the general markets......ALL looks good to me "at the moment". Lets hope that the phrase....HAPPY NEW YEAR.....is more than just a new years greeting.
HERE......are actual performance data on one of my typical accounts that I run for myself or family. Just putting up good sounding percentages is NOT RELEVANT so I will put up my annual percentage gain and the annual percentage gain of the SP500 for the same time period. Only a comparison to an unmanaged index gives any real performance measure. Annual Gain DATA My portfolio 10 years +16.53% 5 years +10.29% 3 years +13.60% 1 year +33.24% YTD +32.06% 3 Month +10.40% SP500: 10 years +14.71% 5 years +11.43% 3 years +14.87% 1year +32.83% YTD +31.84% 3 Month +9.92% I will post the results for the three mutual funds that I hold.......Fidelity Contra Fund, Dodge & Cox Stock Fund, and SP500 Index Fund after the first of the year when year end data is available. In my opinion, an appropriate comparison for the funds is also the SP500. My INVESTING GOALS are the same as allways: Average at least +10% annual gain over the LONG TERM. and Try to beat the SP500 each year.
YES........I will take all the levels of return above since they are all above my goal of 10% and I NEVER get GREEDY. Simple analysis shows that I am beating the SP500 nicely at ten years. SP500 is beating me at five years and three years by +1.14% and +1.27%. I am beating the SP500 by less than +1% over one year, year to date, and three months. All in all I am VERY SATISFIED with this performance.......although the past ten years has been the greatest BULL MARKET in history. On a TOTALLY DIFFERENT topic. I want to feature this article that is in a post above: The Coming Boom in Millennial Wealth https://www.forbes.com/sites/charle...oming-boom-in-millennial-wealth/#44e625ad30a5 We are CLEARLY in the age of the MILLENIAL. I was around a lot of them this Christmas. ALL are getting married, having kids, buying homes, in career jobs, living in the upscale suburbs, etc, etc, etc. These were mostly early Millenials, in the age range 32 to 38 years. It gave me a good view of where we are headed with the middle and early Millenials that are ages 24 to 32. They will all be doing these same life events over the next ten years. We are at the start of a HUGE BABY BOOM. We are at the start of a HUGE house buying era by younger people. We are at the start of the Millenial BOOM moving to the suburbs. Their earning power and everything about them as the largest generation will HUGELY impact the economy.........I believe in a very positive way. Invest at your own risk if you do not appreciate the impact of this population BULGE over the next 10-50 years. In short from what I see with the older Millenials........they will follow the same path as the generations that cam before them. IGNORE them at your risk if you are an investor. They and their economic activity will create a LARGE amount of WEALTH for investors going forward for many decades.
YEAH..........LOL.......we may be screwed in a good way and we may be screwed in a bad way. BUT, I dont expect that the Millenial multi-generations will be any different than those that went before them in terms of moving through the various LIFE STEPS and the consumerism and economic activity that goes with those steps. We all know the impact of the BABY BOOM generation moving through their economic life. The Millenial generation is LARGER and will therefore have a larger impact. I watched my kids and their friends. When they got out of school, most of them moved into the HIP heart of various cities, went through various jobs and phases, struggled, some lived at home, did not save much, etc, etc. BUT as they got into their late 20's and into their 30's they were ALL married, most had kids, most were in career jobs and the vast majority had moved to homes that they purchased in the suburbs. Same as EVERY generation, they wanted good schools and safety for their family.
SURPRISE, surprise...........at least to me. I figured after yesterday with window dressing, year end portfolio positioning, profit taking, tax loss selling, etc, etc, that we would be down again today. I have been out of touch all day and it was a nice surprise to see a gain of about 75 points on the DOW........FOR THE LAST MONEY DAY OF THE YEAR. Nice to END the year with a gain. ONWARD and UPWARD into the new year. I will see you guys in 2020........HAPPY NEW YEARS.......be careful out there tonight.
THANK YOU.......rg. I have the year end returns for my three mutual funds. The performance data for the stock side of my account model (an actual account) will be available to me tomorrow on Schwab and I will post the year end data for the stock side. I did post data a few posts above, but I will post the ACTUAL FINAL year end data. LIKE EVERYONE.....it has been a good year. Fidelity Contra Fund +29.98% Dodge & Cox Stock Fund +24.38% Schwab SP500 Index Fund +31.44% You know, for any reading this that are not sure how to invest........there are TRADERS and there are INVESTORS. I am OBVIOUSLY a LONG TERM INVESTOR. I am NOT a TRADER. One is not necessarily better or worse than the other. BUT.....they are very different from each other. I have no issue with traders or those that wish to be traders. To each their own. BUT, I do have a problem with people that think the way to invest in stocks and funds is to trade and don't appreciate the difference. One reason I post all this STUFF is so people that are not sure how they want to approach investing, can see one approach.......a LONG TERM PROBABILITY based approach........... and how the results are. There will be some on here that will BEAT ME this year, and there will be some on here that I will BEAT THEM this year. BUT.....it does not matter in the slightest. I am NOT COMPETING with anyone else. NEITHER ARE YOU. Your success or failure is irrelevant to my success and failure as an investor. As I have said in the past.....I do NOT buy any of the zero sum crap. What and how we each invest or trade is very personal. HOWEVER.......whatever you are doing I SUGGEST that you have some index like the SP500 or whatever you want to use that you measure your performance against. Otherwise you are just fooling yourself in terms of how you are doing. SO.........ANYONE whether a trader or investor or whatever is WELCOME to post results on here. ACTUALLY what is more important and interesting to post is your portfolio make up, investing style, goals, and how your results this year met those goals or did not meet those goals. As well as, your analysis of the year for........YOU.
Last Sunday I posted my year to date results. At that time YEAR TO DATE WAS AT +32.06% and ONE YEAR was at +33.24%. Figures incorporating yesterdays year end gain will not be available till tomorrow on Schwab, I will post them when I can get them. This year being such a barn burner made me wonder about what MIGHT HAVE BEEN. On the GOOD side I profited from the following: Microsoft wraps up its best year since 2009 https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/31/microsoft-wraps-up-its-best-year-since-2009.html Apple Was the Dow’s Best Stock in 2019. https://www.barrons.com/articles/ap...-history-says-will-happen-in-2020-51577795401 Amazon Leads S&P 500 After Reporting ‘Record’ Holiday Sales https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...says-holiday-shopping-broke-records-this-year On the BAD side of things. Boeing got hammered this year, although I saw somewhere yesterday that in spite of everything it ended the year UP 1%. Costco drifted some this year. J&J and 3M had a hard time with lawsuits and litigation exposure. Home Depot ended the year SOFT. In spite of the negative, I still ended the year somewhere in the neighborhood of +33% and probably........I will know in a day or two.....beat the sP500 by a little bit. Makes me wonder what I could have done if BA, HD, COST, JNJ, and MMM, had NOT had the various negatives this year.........+40%....+50%......MORE? Just shows that what REALLY COUNTS is the performance of a portfolio as a WHOLE. I have always had a talent for putting together portfolios over the decades. I like where I am right now and have NO PLANS to make any portfolio changes in 2020.
OK.........final data for 2019 as of the close December 31, 2019: ENTIRE PORTFOLIO 10 years +16.48% 5 years +10.55% 3 years +13.85% 1 year (2019) +31.67% Schwab for the year 2019 lists the SP500 at +31.49%. So for 2019, I made both my goals..........average 10% or more for the LONG TERM and try to BEAT the SP500 each year. MUTUAL FUNDS Fidelity Contra Fund +29.98% Dodge & Cox Stock Fund +24.38% Schwab SP500 Index Fund +31.44% MY COMMENT With this post, 2019 is now OFFICIALLY in the books and locked in. 2020 here we come.......READY OR NOT.
Dont want to JINX it.....BUT.....today's open to the new year and the new decade, with a gain in the Dow of +331 points..........at RECORD HIGHS..........and......it is a BEAUTIFUL THING. Dow breaks out to fastest start since 2013 https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-stocks-jan-2-2019 (BOLD represents my opinion and what I consider important content) "The stock market started 2020 with a bang as the Dow Jones Industrial Average got off to its fastest start to a year since 2013. The 30-stock index rallied 330 points, or 1.1 percent Thursday while the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 added 0.8 percent and 1.3 percent, respectively. All three of the major averages closed in record territory, picking up where they left off in 2019. Last year, the benchmark S&P gained 28.9 percent while the Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 35.2 percent and 22.3 percent, respectively. The gains came after the People's Bank of China said it would cut its reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points, lowering the amount of money banks are required to keep on hand. Apple shares hit a record high, and crossing the $300 level for the first time. Meanwhile, AMD spiked after Nomura Instinet raised its price target to $58 from $40, suggesting new products will help the company strengthen its position in the chip market. Elsewhere, Boeing gained despite Reuters reporting rival Airbus delivered a record 863 aircraft in 2019, making it the top planemaker for the year. Ford was little changed after receiving a downgrade at Evercore. The firm cut its rating on the automaker to "underperform," citing its high valuation. On the deals front, Anixter International accepted a $93.50 a share in cash offer from Clayton Dubilier & Rice LLC. The deal, which values Anixter at about $4.3 billion, comes after Wesco last month offered $93.50 a share in cash and stock. Looking at commodities, gold was up 0.5 percent at $1,530 an ounce and West Texas Intermediate crude oil was higher by 0.1 percent at $61.14 a barrel. U.S. Treasurys gained, pushing the yield on the 10-year note down almost 3 basis points to 1.88 percent. In Europe, France's CAC 40 rose 1.1 percent while Germany's DAX added 1 percent and Britain's FTSE was higher by 0.8 percent. Overnight, Hong Kong's Hang Seng jumped 1.1 percent and China's Shanghai Composite gained 1.2 percent. Tokyo was still closed for the New Year's holiday." MY COMMENT Gains are starting to occur around the world......BUT.....the rest of the world has a long, long, way to go before they are in a hot economy.......ESPECIALLY Europe and the EU. Ten year yield is STILL ONLY 1.88%. We are in a RARE golden age of low interest rates, full employment, rising wages, and a booming economy. As an investor I just HANG ON and ENJOY THE RIDE for as long as it lasts. If things get out of hand with exuberance, that will be a sign. BUT, at the moment there is still plenty of room to run and MUCH money on the sidelines.
IRAN..........Please.....you have got to be kidding. The reaction of (some of) the MEDIA to this non-event is RIDICULOUS. One headline....."WWIII". There is NO WAY I will react in any way as an investor to a minor event involving a third world country that is the primary source of terrorism in the world. Their impact on OIL......zero. Their impact on business and investing.......zero. If this MINOR country is so dangerous and is going to endanger the entire world.......than we should just get it over with and take them out once and for all. I DONT CARE about the politics of this situation........AND......... as an investor I will NOT be jerked around by MEDIA FOOLS. For any that are concerned......and I doubt there are REALLY many........this is about a 2-4 day event that will have ABSOLUTELY NO BEARING on the business success of AMERICAN companies. TRULY a tempest in a teapot. MY bottom line opinion (sorry).......ANYONE that allows this sort of thing to jerk them around as an investor needs to evaluate their ability to invest in the markets as well as their risk tolerance.
With the recovery and nice gain today......we have NOW cleared the IRAN CRISIS. NO DOUBT the MEDIA will continue to try to milk it for everything they can over the next few weeks......but in terms of what counts on here.......business and investing.....the issue is done. NO DOUBT there will be after shocks from time to time. ANY world event has the potential to impact investments. This is just part of the reality of being a stock and fund investor. That is why I am a LONG TERM INVESTOR.....over the long term time has a way of smoothing out the news and event issues that drive the markets over the short term. My interest is investing based on business fundamentals, probability, and other business data.........NOT daily news events.
