The Long Term Investor

You are so right Zukodany.

People just throwing money at that stock....in a FRENZY. Somewhere I saw that there were a pretty good number of shorts. So this might be another one of those short squeezes.....in addition to the Cathie Wood followers.

 

On a day when we are seeing a nice open with SOLID gains to all the averages.......this is a nice little article that is looking toward the future.

Goldman Boosts S&P 500 Target on Earnings Growth, Low Rates

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-becomes-p-500-biggest-100818212.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"(Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists lifted their outlook for the S&P 500 Index as robust earnings growth and low interest rates fuel optimism that stocks can continue rallying despite record high levels.

David J. Kostin and his colleagues raised the end-2021 target to 4,700 after the benchmark U.S. index surpassed their earlier prediction of 4,300 about a month ago, according to a note. This implies a return of about 7% from current levels for the remainder of the year and is now the highest forecast along with Oppenheimer & Co’s in the monthly Bloomberg survey of Wall Street strategists from July.

Goldman’s upgrade follows that by Oppenheimer on Aug. 2, when Chief Investment Strategist John Stoltzfus lifted the S&P 500 year-end target to 4,700.

The strong earnings season has been driving U.S. stocks to all-time highs, outweighing concerns about the delta variant, China’s crackdown and possible scaling back of monetary stimulus. Goldman strategists today boosted their earnings-per-share estimates to $207 from $193 for this year, implying a whopping 45% annual growth.

“The combination of higher-than-expected S&P 500 earnings and lower-than-expected interest rates drive our upgraded price targets,” the Goldman strategists said. “Relative to consensus, we expect stronger revenue growth and more pretax profit margin expansion as firms successfully manage costs and as high-margin tech companies become a larger share of the index.”

Corporates and households will be the largest buyers of U.S. stocks, thanks to surging buybacks and elevated cash holdings, according to Goldman. Investors should balance their portfolios with long-term growth stocks allocations and short-term tactical bets in virus-exposed sectors, according to the note.

The Goldman strategists also increased their end-2022 S&P 500 target to 4,900 from 4,600. This signals more limited upside for the benchmark, with a return of about 4.3% for the year. The increase in earnings is also expected to slow down next year, with 2% annual EPS growth, they said."

MY COMMENT

The above.....end of 2021 upgrade.....looks EMINENTLY reasonable to me. I believe we are NOW in....."probability"....territory for ending the year with a total return of about +25% for the SP500.

As to the 4.3% return prediction for 2022......extremely conservative.....but they will have plenty of time to raise it over the next 18 months. This seems EXTREMELY conservative to me and with the continued re-opening will......"probably".... be EXCEEDED.

It is nice to see an article that is NOT focused on the extreme short term. I like to follow the day to day....stuff.....but, it is really IRRELEVANT to most investors that are not traders. As a former business owner and long time OBSERVER of human behavior, the human brain, and investing psychology.....I am interested in the day to day "stuff". BUT.....as a long term investor......it is IRRELEVANT. Once in a while I might see a stock split or other situation that I feel like I can take advantage of......human behavior.....and make some MOMENTUM and PSYCHOLOGY based money.....but....that is not my primary focus.

If I had to sum up the SINGLE most important factor to me in my long term investing.....and even in my rare short term plays, it would be......"PROBABILITY". In long term investing this is reflected in the general UP direction of the averages over the long term as well as BUSINESS FUNDAMENTALS and OUTLOOK. What underlies fundamentals and outlook is......MANAGEMENT, COMPANY CAPITAL INVESTMENT IN OPERATIONS AND FACILITIES, ICONIC PRODUCT LINE, LONG TERM DOMINANCE, MARKETING.....ETC, ETC, ETC.

In addition to the actual business data of the companies that I own and the general UP direction of the markets over the long term.....I ALSO...try to invest according to ALL the various habits of successful investing that have been PROVEN by the ACADEMIC INVESTING RESEARCH. This is why I do not do market timing, invest all in all at once, stay fully invested, etc, etc.

Lets ENJOY a good day today.....I continue to be fully invested for the long term as usual.

 

I like this little article as a reminder of the FACT that we are past due for a normal correction.....and as a documentation of the HISTORIC run we are in the middle of at this moment in time.

You're not imagining how placid markets have been: Morning Brief

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/your...arkets-have-been-morning-brief-090350505.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"It's been almost a year since the S&P 500 fell 5%

Heading into August, market observers were again reminded that this month tends to be the toughest one for the S&P 500 Index (^GSPC).

The operative statistic that made the rounds this week reminded investors that on six occasions since 2010, the month of August has seen the S&P 500 take a loss.

And while investors will certainly be reminded of this same data next year — seasonality data does, after all, come back every season — it is understandable if market watchers are perhaps a bit more sensitive to any inkling of bad news this year.

After all, it's been a long time since the overall market has faced much pressure at all.

In his latest monthly chartbook circulated on Wednesday, Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Advisory Services, highlighted the following chart. It reminded investors that we're currently in the midst of the second-longest period of the last decade without a 5% drop in the S&P 500.


It's been almost a year since the S&P 500 fell more than 5%, the second-longest streak we've seen in the last decade. (Source: Truist)
The last time the S&P 500 dropped more than 5% peak to trough, the calendar read "2020." And only 2017's market, in which an entire year came and went without the index dropping 5%, eclipses this current run.

"Historically, stocks tend to see two or three 5%-plus pullbacks a year, but the last one that occurred was last fall," Lerner wrote. "We see periodic setbacks as the admission price to the markets, and put a greater emphasis on the primary trend, which we view as higher over the next 12 months."

Looking at only returns for the S&P 500, of course, never tells the full story of the market.

And this year perhaps even heightens that theme.

The meme trade, the SPAC boom, and the rush of new IPOs hitting the market have made for plenty of single-stock volatility.

And look no further than the action we've seen in shares of Robinhood (HOOD), which gained 24% on Tuesday and another 50% on Wednesday as the stock was halted at least three times for volatility early in yesterday's session.

Big bets placed by investors on the re-opening trade, then on higher interest rates, and then on big cap tech stocks have led to an environment that Canaccord Genuity strategist Tony Dwyer told Yahoo Finance Live last month was one of a "rolling correction" in the market. In other words, there has been plenty of pain to go around underneath the surface for portfolio managers this year.

Moreover, Lerner also addresses a recent Morning Brief idea of what "peak growth" may or may not mean for markets, writing that "the peak in economic momentum often injects market volatility but does not typically end a bull market."

But to steal a phrase from Fed Chair Jay Powell, before we can talk about talking about any kind of end to this or any bull market the S&P 500 first needs to drop 5%. And at least for right now, we're still waiting. "

MY COMMENT

As I first started reading this little article....before I got to he primary point of the article....I was thinking...."yeah, but this past year has SEEMED like a very erratic market with extreme up and down action...even though the data does not show that". This past year has SEEMED like we had a number of corrections even though we did not.

This is one of those time periods where a longer term chart shows a continuously rising market with no corrections.....but the feeling to actually living through it day to day is MUCH different. In the old days that might be called.....climbing a wall of worry.

I like the phrase......"rolling correction"....that is a very good description of the past year or so for investors. This past year is the PERFECT EXAMPLE of a market that is a.......nightmare.......for those that are TIMID investors. It is ALSO a perfect example of the DANGER of geting too caught up in the day to day DRAMA and FEAR-MONGERING.

 

A BEAUTIFUL day for investors today in the markets. I am seeing SOLID and UNIFORM gains across my ENTIRE portfolio today....with the exception of a very slight loss in PG. Judging by my portfolio....it seems like a very nice BROAD BASED day today.

I am NOW at a new personal.....intra-day....all time account high. So....I have totally ERASED the little drop we saw a week or two ago.....that some were calling a CORRECTION. Obviously it was....NOT....a correction by definition or any other measure of REALITY.

Day by day....week by week....month by month.....sooner or later it all adds up to REAL MONEY.

 

I like this little article.....even though I dont agree with the conclusion.

My Investing Nightmare

https://ofdollarsanddata.com/my-investing-nightmare/

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Recently a friend asked me:

What keeps you up at night financially? What is your version of an investing nightmare?

Fortunately, I don’t have anything that keeps me up at night (I tend to be an optimist), but if I had to describe my investing nightmare, it wouldn’t be something we haven’t seen in recent decades. In fact, I’d argue we haven’t seen it within the last 100 years of U.S. market history.

Yes, the Great Depression is about as bad as it gets, but even that would have been over in the span of three years. A hellish three years for sure, but three years can go by quicker than you think.

My investment nightmare doesn’t involve a 50% decline or a lost decade like the one we had in the U.S. from 2000-2009 either. It’s far worse than that. Because even the Lost Decade for U.S. stocks wasn’t that bad when you consider the path markets took over that time period. Let’s review.

Some Bad Decades
The chart below shows the change in U.S. stock prices over the decade from March 1999 to February 2009 (aka The Lost Decade):


Yes, prices declined by nearly 50% from 2000-2003, but that was after one of the biggest price runs in U.S. market history (the DotCom bubble). So was anyone actually shocked when this happened? I would hope not, because it was obvious that a bubble had emerged, but no one knew when it would pop.

Some would say that the same thing is happening today. And they may be right. So if we experience a 30-40% decline in the next few years, will I be shocked? Of course not. Similarly, if the market ripped upward for the next few years would I be shocked? Not at all. This is the nature of markets.

Anyways, back to the chart. After the decline into 2003, what happened next? A massive rally that sent prices above their 1999 highs. So yes, the 50% decline from the bubble sucked, but then you got a rally that got you back to new all time highs within a few years. Think about the level of hope and optimism that this inspired among U.S. investors.

Following that optimism came the Great Financial Crisis and another 50% crash. This wasn’t easy to experience under any circumstance, but considering the rally before, the cumulative pain for investors during this decade was limited to 4 of the 10 years. That’s bad, but I’ve seen worse.

Compare this to the Italian stock market after the Great Financial Crisis. If you look at what happened there, you will see a big decline over a year then basically flat (just oscillations) for the next seven years:


I would argue that an investor would feel objectively worse investing through this decade than through the Lost Decade in the U.S. Having seven years of a flat market would start to weigh on you by the end.

Don’t get me wrong though, being an investor in either of these markets would have been a struggle, but my investment nightmare is a bit worse than both of these.

Going Up the Downstair (My Investing Nightmare)
If I had to pick a market to represent my investment nightmare, I would pick Spain from 1973-1983. For the uninitiated, from the mid 1970s to early 1980s Spain experienced high inflation, high unemployment, and sluggish growth that destroyed their capital markets over the course of a decade. And, as the chart below shows, it was a slow ride down for those 10 years:


In my opinion, this is worse than anything that U.S. investors have ever experienced. While the Great Depression was objectively more damaging to capital markets, it happened over a much shorter time period. I cannot imagine seeing stocks decline consistently for four years only to be followed by a weak four year rally, then two more years of declines.

The cumulative pain experienced by investors in this market is unheard of in U.S. market history. This is why it’s my investing nightmare. The slow grind downward. The loss of hope. The questioning of my profession. I can’t even imagine it.

But as bad as that is, there is one market that is much, much worse. It’s so bad that I can’t even consider it as an actual possibility for the future of U.S. or global equities. I’m talking about Greek stocks after 2008, which saw a decline greater than 95% in less than a decade. This chart should be titled “Abandon all hope ye who enter here”:


After seeing this, Spain from 1973-1983 seems like a cakewalk. This is why I can’t even consider this a real possibility for U.S. (or global) markets. Why? Because a 97% decline in U.S. (or global) stocks would imply some sort of end of civilization like event.

If we end up in such a scenario, the only investments that you will actually need are guns and canned goods. As grim as this sounds, fortunately, there are ways to avoid even the worst investment nightmares.

How to Avoid an Investing Nightmare
Though bad markets (and bad decades) will always be out of your control, the one way you can counteract these investing nightmares is to limit your exposure to each of these markets. As bad as Spain was in 1973-1983 or Greece was from 2008-2018, any rational investor should have been diversified across multiple equity markets.

More importantly, they should have been diversified beyond equities as well. The only way to avoid an investing nightmare is to prevent yourself from falling into one in the first place. Limit your exposure to individual markets just like you would limit your exposure to individual stocks. Of course, when markets crash they tend to crash together, but worldwide crashes in equities are exceedingly rare.

Yes, these events will occur now and again (and they will suck when they do). However, you can prepare for these eventual crises by owning income-producing assets that are less correlated with traditional financial markets along with some non-income producing assets as well.

This is how I sleep at night despite the investing horrors that the future surely holds.

Until then…thank you for reading!"

MY COMMENT

I like the little HISTORY lesson in the little article. I ALSO like the comparison to some of the FOREIGN market collapses......for CONTEXT. As investors in this country we often do not realize how WELL OFF we are and how good we have it.

I dont agree.....personally with the conclusion of the article.....how to avoid these situations. BUT....that is simply my personal BIAS.

My....PERSONAL.....investing nightmare....I wake up and find out that all the investing gains that I think I made were just a good DREAM......and that all the horrible market events of the past 40+ years......ACTUALLY....shook me out of the markets and made me afraid to invest and I have been siting on my little bit of money and MISSED OUT on the entire past 40+ years of market gains.

 

LOL.....cleaning up a typo. I said above:

"I am not at a new personal.....intra-day....all time account high."

It should have been "I am....."NOW"....

Probably anyone reading was saying.....well DUH.....why would you tell everyone that you are "not" at a new high......that is not exactly big news......this guy is a MORON.

 

HERE is a nice little story for ELON MUSK fans.

Elon Musk's Starlink now almost as fast as broadband: report
Musk said the service is on its way to topping 500,000 users within the next year

https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/elon-musk-starlink-almost-fast-broadband

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)


"Elon Musk's Starlink satellite internet service is almost as fast as broadband, according to a recent report.

According to Speedtest data, the SpaceX-run venture was the only satellite internet provider in the U.S. with "fixed-broadband-like latency figures, and median download speeds fast enough to handle most of the needs of modern online life at 97.23 Mbps during Q2 2021."

The Speedtest report also analyzed results from competitors like HughesNet and Viasat during the second quarter of 2021, in addition to fixed broadband like cable and DSL.

HughesNet came in second to Starlink at 19.73 megabits per second and Viasat placed third at 18.13 Mbps.

In addition, Starlink's median upload speed of 13.89 Mbps was closer to that of fixed broadband, with Viasat placing second at 3.38 Mbps and HughesNet coming in third.

Speedtest said Starlink was "critically" also the sole satellite internet provider with a median latency near that of fixed broadband in the second quarter of 2021 due to the use of the low earth orbit (LEO) satellite constellation that has satellites physically closer to the Earth than traditional satellite providers.

Both Viasat and HughesNet use higher "geosynchronous" orbits for their satellites, according to the report. It's a fact that allows the companies to service more of the Earth's surface but with an increase in latency.

Lastly, Speedtest noted that Starlink's performance varies at the county level – though not widely – and that satellite internet speeds across the country are largely increasing.

"Satellite internet is newer and speeds fluctuate as technologies improve and as more users are added to sometimes crowded networks," the report said. "Data from Speedtest Intelligence during Q1-Q2 2021 shows some of these struggles as median download speeds for both Starlink and HughesNet dipped in February and then rose again through the period only to dip again in June. This could be related to seasonal weather patterns. Viasat’s median download speed rose slightly from January through April and then started to decline slightly in May and June."

The company assured it would continue to monitor the performance of the companies, whose service is especially important for people in areas with little to no fixed broadband access,

Starlink has more than 1,700 low-flying satellites in orbit and SpaceX told the Federal Communications Commission during a call that the service now has 90,000 active users around the world, according to The Verge.

Musk said in June that Starlink is currently operational in 12 countries and that it was on its way to having possibly more than 500,000 users within a year."

MY COMMENT

Another feather in the cap for MUSK. An ICONIC business leader and innovator. This business is going to be a HUGE IPO....when it goes public......one for the record books.

 

No......I just thought it was a funny typo the way it was originally...so I called it out.

As I said earlier.....a BEAUTIFUL day today for investors. I was nicely green.....PLUS....beat the SP500 by 0.18%. I am on a roll lately against the SP500.

My leaders today were......NIKE, COSTCO, NVIDIA, and MICROSOFT......although today was a BROAD rally in my little account.

 

YEP......I go ALL IN....oldmanram...otherwise it is market timing. AND......there is no way to know what the markets are going to do.

ALTHOUGH.....if you look back to when I was reinvesting some big dollars at the peak of the pandemic......I did reinvest over a number of weeks.....based on the "probability" that the market direction was going to be DOWN due to the pandemic.....and....because we were in an ABERRATIONAL time due to the pandemic.....and...because I was HOPING to drag things out and take advantage of a DOWN market. BUT....even at that time I ended up reinvesting much quicker that I planned since the FED had acted and I wanted to get back fully exposed to the markets ASAP.

BOTTOM LINE....I just cant stand to be out of the markets.....so I use the SP500 like a money market fund.

Of course.....I have the benefit of my stock money being LIFETIME stock market money. It makes.....all in all the time.....investing easier knowing that I will not have to ever use that money. It definately helps with the risk tolerance.

 

I am SPOILED....I want a strong close to the week tomorrow. We are positive for the past 5 market days after today for the SP500....but I want more. I WANT what I.....deserve. I want what I am.....entitled to.

 

I used to subscribe to the Investors Business Daily for many years. Here is their current take of today and tomorrow. They usually get into a bit of Technical Analysis in their articles toward the bottom.......which I ignore......not as much today as usual. There are some charts in this article that did NOT copy.

Dow Jones Futures: Nasdaq Hits High As Market Rally Awaits Jobs Report; Apple, Microsoft Trade Tightly

https://www.investors.com/market-tr...ort-apple-microsoft-trade-tightly/?src=A00220

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Dow Jones futures were little changed late Thursday, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. The stock market rally had a solid session, with the Nasdaq hitting a record high and the S&P 500 nearly doing so. The July jobs report looms large Friday morning.


Floor & Decor (FND), Cloudflare (NET), Carvana (CVNA) and Paylocity (PCTY) were key earnings after the close. FND stock and Cloudfare retreated from record highs overnight. CVNA stock jumped while Paylocity was indicated higher.

Growth stocks generally fared well Thursday, though new IPO Robinhood Markets (HOOD) tumbled as the free trading app announced a HOOD stock sale a week after its IPO. HOOD stock is still up sharply this week.

Meanwhile, Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft stock are tightening up, consolidating after earnings and strong runs. Apple stock arguably is in buy range now, but both the iPhone maker and Microsoft (MSFT) are worth watching for future buys.

Jobs Report
The Labor Department releases the July jobs report at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists expect nonfarm payrolls to rise 900,000 with the unemployment rate falling to 5.7%. The July jobs report comes two days after the ADP employment report estimated private employment grew by 330,000 last month, far below estimates.

A strong jobs report could encourage the Federal Reserve to begin discussing winding down its massive asset purchases. A weak report could push "taper talk" past the September Fed meeting.

Dow Jones Futures Today
Dow Jones futures lost about 0.1% vs. fair value. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures were little changed.

Expect the July jobs report to swing Dow Jones futures.

Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn't necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.

Stock Market Rally Thursday

The stock market rally enjoyed solid gains, closing near session highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.8% in Thursday's stock market trading. The S&P 500 index climbed 0.6%. The Nasdaq composite advanced 0.8%. The small-cap S&P 500 index popped 1.8%.

Crude oil futures rose after falling sharply over the prior three days this week. The 10-year Treasury yield edged up for a third-straight session.

Among the best ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) rose 0.6%, while the Innovator IBD Breakout Opportunities ETF (BOUT) added 0.6% as well. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) rallied 0.9%, with MSFT stock a major holding. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) dipped 0.1% as AMD (AMD) retreated after surging 30.5% over the prior six sessions.

SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) slumped 0.7% and Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF (PAVE) edged up 0.4%. U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS) popped 3.6%. SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) xxx. The Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) gained 1.2% and the Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) climbed 1.3%.

Reflecting more-speculative story stocks, ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) rose 1.9% and ARK Genomics ETF (ARKG) 4.3%.

Robinhood Stock

HOOD stock tumbled 27% to 51.20, starting to fill in the gap from Wednesday's huge move. Robinhood stock on Wednesday gapped up as high as 85, closing up 50% to 70.39. But anyone who bought HOOD stock on Wednesday is now down

Robinhood said early Thursday that it would sell nearly 97.8 million shares on behalf of existing shareholders. That news came a week after the HOOD IPO began trading.

While brand-new IPOs are exciting, it's generally better for investors to wait for the market's initial price discovery. At some point, a new issue will settle down and form at least a short IPO base. Even then, buying an IPO stock is a high risk/high reward scenario.

HOOD stock fell Thursday, but needs to consolidate over several days or weeks.

Key Overnight Earnings

Floor & Decor, Cloudflare, Carvana and Paylocity all beat earnings views.

FND stock fell in extended trading, but trading was sporadic. Shares of the flooring retailer rose 1.1% to 126.89 on Thursday, hitting a fresh high. FND stock is well extended from a 109.95 cup-with-handle buy point.

NET stock sank 5% overnight as the networking and security software maker gave mixed guidance. Shares had risen 1.2% to 121.46, a record close. NET stock is extended from a 95.87 buy point.

Carvana stock jumped 9% in late trading. Shares climbed 1.8% on Thursday to 337, but still in range from a 323.49 buy point. CVNA stock could offer an earnings gap buying opportunity Friday morning.

Paylocity stock was indicated at least modestly higher. PCTY stock rose 2.25% to 219.28 on Thursday, hitting a record high. Shares popped 5.4% on Wednesday, as fellow human capital software maker Paycom Software (PAYC) jumped on its report. But the best time to buy PCTY stock may have been as it cleared 202.10 in late July from what was either an early entry or a double-bottom buy point.

Apple Stock
Apple stock edged up 0.1% to 147.06 on Thursday. Shares are modestly extended from a 137.17 buy point based on a cup-with-handle base within a larger consolidation. But it's within range of that larger consolidation, with a 145.19 entry. Since hitting a record 150 on July 15, AAPL stock has been moving sideways in a fairly narrow range. It's not quite enough to be a tight pattern, but investors could use 500.10 as an alternative buy point.

Apple earnings doubled in the latest quarter as revenue rose 36%.

Microsoft Stock
Microsoft stock climbed just over 1% to 289.52, a new record close. Shares are extended from a cup base with a 263.29 buy point, according to MarketSmith analysis. Since late July, MSFT stock has traded tightly, but isn't on track to form a tight pattern so far. If the software and cloud-computing giant could move sideways or drift lower for a few more weeks, it might form a new base and perhaps let the 50-day/10-week lines catch up.

Microsoft earnings growth has accelerated for four straight quarters while sales gains have picked in the last three quarters.

Market Rally Analysis
The stock market rally had a solid session. The Nasdaq hit a record high but is only xx% above its 50-day line. Apple stock, Microsoft and other tech titans pausing for a few weeks has helped the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 avoid getting extended.

If Apple and Microsoft stock did go on another run, it could quickly

The S&P 500 came within a point of an all-time high with the Dow Jones not far behind The Russell 2000 moved back above its 21-day line, but remains stuck below its 50-day line. It was a positive day for market breadth, but the rally remains relatively narrow, led by software and other techs.

As for leading stocks, there were a few new buying opportunities. Square (SQ) followed through and hit the top of its base. HubSpot (HUBS) gapped out of a base. Globant (GLOB) cleared a consolidation. Meanwhile, many other growth names continued to move higher.

Amid several earnings winners, there were a few big earnings losers, including Etsy (ETSY), DXC Technology (DXC) and Revolve (RVLV). That once again shows the importance of having a strategy for deal with earnings."

MY COMMENT

A pretty good summary of the day...and a bit of a preview of tomorrow....above. AND....a bit of Technical analysis in this article for Emmett and others that use it.