The Long Term Investor

YEP....you do know me Pmw55. I am not a week to week investor.....it is ALL about the LONG TERM for me. BUT...that is what makes investing interesting....EVERYONE is different.

 

I probably dont need to mention this....but I will.

This is a GENERAL thread on a message board. It is FINE for anyone to post what they wish. No one has to AGREE with me or anyone else or avoid posting contrary opinions. ALL posters on here are WELCOME and EQUAL. If you are a LURKER......join us if you wish.

Just....please.....post in a nice way......so we can keep the thread FRIENDLY and WELCOMING for everyone and build up a nice community of posters.

 

LOL...just took my last look at my account till after the close. I have at least now improved a bit in my....moderate.... loss for the day. BUT......I am NOW straight RED across the board.....not a single stock in the green.

GOOD.....I like consistency.

 

YES....we could do it as a weekly REALITY SHOW....we will all be STARS. As our ONLY member with acting experience you will have to be a cast member Emmett....so we will hire a camera crew.

 

Somehow I dont think we have what it takes to hold much of an audience.....now if we made it a show called....The Real Housewives of Stockaholics.....we could probably do pretty good and hold an audience.

Of yes...the markets....total RED for me today....a rare CLEAN SWEEP. Not too horrible on the money amount...a very moderate loss. BUT....the SP500 got me by 0.55%. Lately I have been slowly piling up the gains on the SP500....a bit over 1%. Now in one day I slipped back by a bit over half a percent....BUMMER.

 

Here is what I was talking about earlier on the Jobs report not being as good as reported.....not that any of this matters.

July Jobs Report Not as Impressive as Headline Suggests

https://www.aier.org/article/july-jobs-report-not-as-impressive-as-headline-suggests/

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"US. nonfarm payrolls added 943,000 jobs in July after a gain of 938,000 in June. The July gain is the seventh in a row and 14th in the last 15 months, bringing the seven-month gain to 4.318 million and the 15-month post-plunge recovery to 16.660 million. This is still well below the 22.362 million combined loss from March and April of 2020, leaving nonfarm payrolls 5.702 million below the February 2020 peak (see first chart). If payrolls continue to grow at the average over the last seven months (616,857), it may take another nine months to fully recoup all of the job losses.

However, the headline gain was boosted by a large jump of 230,000 in state payrolls. Private payrolls posted a less impressive though still strong 703,000 jobs gain in July after a 769,000 gain in June. The July rise in private payrolls is also the seventh in a row and 14th in the last 15 months. The July addition brings the seven-month gain to 3.721 million and the 15-month recovery to 16.433 million versus a combined loss of 21.353 million in March and April of 2020, leaving private payrolls 4.92 million below the February 2020 peak (see first chart). If private payrolls continue to grow at the average over the last seven months (531,571), it would also take about nine months to fully recoup all of the job losses.


The breadth of gains was positive again in July. Within the 703,000 gain in private payrolls, private services added 659,000 while goods-producing industries added 44,000. For private service-producing industries, the gains were again led by a surge in leisure and hospitality, adding 380,000, accounting for more than half of the total gain in private payrolls, an 87,000 gain in education and health care services, a 60,000 rise in business and professional services, and 50,000 new jobs in transportation and warehousing. Retail continued to be somewhat volatile, losing 6,000 jobs in July, the second decline in the last four months (see second chart).

Within the 44,000 gain in goods-producing industries, construction was up 11,000, durable-goods manufacturing increased by 20,000, nondurable-goods manufacturing added 7,000, and mining and logging industries increased by 6,000 (see second chart).



After 15 months of recovery, all the major private industry groups still have fewer employees than before the government lockdowns. Three industries – Leisure and hospitality (down 1.737 million jobs), education and health services (down 953,000), and professional and business services (off 556,000) – are down more than half a million jobs each (see third chart).

On a percentage basis, the losses are more evenly distributed. Three of the 14 private industries shown in the report have declines of 4 percent or more since February 2020. Leisure and hospitality leads with a 10.3 percent drop since February 2020, mining and logging comes in second with a 7.7 percent loss followed by information services at 5.9 percent. For the labor market as a whole, total nonfarm payrolls and private payrolls are down 3.8 percent since February 2020 (see fourth chart).

The government sector added 240,000 employees in July, with local government payrolls rising by 230,000, state government payrolls down 8,000, and the federal government adding 18,000 workers. The surge in local payrolls is related to the seasonal variation for schoolteachers which has been disrupted by the pandemic and is likely not a true reading for trends in local hiring.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.4 percent in July, putting the 12-month gain at 4.7 percent. The average hourly earnings data should be interpreted carefully, as the concentration of job losses and recovery for lower-paying jobs during the pandemic distorts the aggregate number.

The average workweek was unchanged at 34.8 hours in July. Combining payrolls with hourly earnings and hours worked, the index of aggregate weekly payrolls gained 0.9 percent in July. The index is up 10.6 percent from a year ago.


The total number of officially unemployed decreased by 782,000 in July to 8.702 million. The unemployment rate dropped sharply to 5.4 percent while the underemployed rate, referred to as the U-6 rate, fell to 9.2 percent in July. In February 2020, the unemployment rate was 3.5 percent while the underemployment rate was 7.0 percent (see top of fifth chart).

The participation rate increased by 0.1 percentage points in July, coming in at 61.7 percent versus a participation rate of 63.3 percent in February 2020. The employment-to-population ratio, one of AIER’s Roughly Coincident indicators, came in at 58.4 for July, up from 58.0 in June but well below the 61.1 percent in February 2020 (see bottom of fifth chart).

The July jobs report posted a very strong headline gain of 943,000 in July. Private payrolls also had a strong gain but not as strong as the total would suggest as seasonal adjustments exaggerated the disrupted seasonal patterns in local education employment. Furthermore, while there were increases in most industries within private payrolls, more than half of the 703,000 gain came from just one industry, leisure and hospitality. Despite the seven consecutive monthly gains and 14 increases in the last 15 months, payroll employment remains well below peak measures from before the pandemic.

Other measures of economic activity generally suggest the economic recovery from the government lockdowns in 2020 is continuing as the restrictions on consumers and businesses are lifted. However, the damage done by the lockdowns was severe. The inability of supply to recover as quickly as demand is resulting in shortages in some areas of the economy and putting significant upward pressure on prices. Furthermore, the rising number of new Covid cases from the Delta variant is a growing risk to the recovery. The overall outlook is tilted to the upside, but challenges remain, and risks are growing."

MY COMMENT

WHATEVER....it is.....what it is.....but it is....not as good.....as it is.....being made out to be. There is STILL a long way to go....a good thing for stock investors and the BULL MARKET.

 

SO....for today...the EUPHORIA over what I would call a so-so.....or.....average..... jobs report sent the markets to new highs. At least......the SP500 and the DOW. The poor NASDAQ......and my stocks....moderately SUCKED today.

Stock market news live updates: S&P 500, Dow jump to all-time highs after blowout July jobs report

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-august-6-2021-221726210.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Stocks rose to record levels on the heels of a key labor market report, which reflected a stronger-than-expected rebound in employment last month and a marked drop in the jobless rate.

The S&P 500 logged record closing and intraday highs, extending record-setting gains from a day earlier. The Dow added more than 100 points, or 0.4%, and also set a record high. The Nasdaq dipped as Treasury yields gained across the curve after the better-than-expected print on the labor market's recovery.

For investors, all eyes on Friday were fixed on the Labor Department's July jobs report. The print showed a whopping 943,000 jobs came back last month as the unemployment rate fell to the lowest level since March 2020. The report also showed upward revisions to the past two months' payroll gains.

But with the Delta variant running rampant across the U.S. and other constraints to the labor market still at play, many pundits have suggested the economy is not fully in the clear yet. Just earlier this week, ADP's closely watched print on private payrolls registered as a sharp disappointment, with only 330,000 jobs coming back versus the nearly 700,000 expected. While the ADP report has historically not tracked perfectly with the Labor Department's "official" monthly jobs reports, it has tended to be a good directional indicator of trends in the labor market.

And for equity investors, some moderation in the pace of the recovery may be perceived as the more desirable outcome.

“The market actually wants a bad jobs report, perverse as that sounds,” Opimas CEO Octavio Marenzi, told Yahoo Finance Thursday afternoon, adding it wants “the job numbers to come in weak so the Fed has a reason to continue its monetary policy.”

Namely, the Federal Reserve has suggested it is looking for more progress in the economic recovery before moving to announce or actually implement changes to its highly accommodative policies. Earlier this week, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said that he would support announcing tapering of the central bank's crisis-era bond purchases by September if the next couple jobs report come in strongly. Likewise, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida said he would back an interest rate increase in 2023 if the economic recovery continues on its current trajectory.

Other economists suggested this month's jobs report would be only a backwards-looking indicator given the deceleration in growth occurring as a result of the latest wave of virus concerns.

"July is a seasonally bad time for state and local government employment as the school year ends but since the layoffs were front loaded, there is a chance the seasonal factor makes an outsize contribution for this area of public sector employment," Neil Dutta, head of macro research at Renaissance Macro Research, wrote in an email on Thursday. "I think the broader story is that even if July is strong, it won't matter because no one should expect a repeat performance in August with economic confidence waning due to the rise in COVID hospitalizations in parts of the country."

MY COMMENT

I am GLAD that the DOW and SP500 had a good day today. You cant win them all. I am part of that ....perverse....group that is pulling for slightly negative economic reports to stretch the BULL MARKET out for as long as possible.

 

WELL....we had a great week for the markets. We CONTINUE to be in a strong......stealth.....summer rally. Earnings are KICKING ASS...and so far nothing is able to stop the relentless but erratic march forward by stocks and the averages.

DOW year to date +15.04%
DOW for the week +0.78%

SP500 year to date +18.12%
SP500 for the week +0.94%

NASDAQ 100 year to date +17.23%
NASDAQ 100 for the week +1.00%

NASDAQ year to date +15.11%
NASDAQ for the week +1.11%

RUSSELL year to date +13.82%
RUSSELL for the week +0.97%

 

YEAH.....as an APPLE product user I HATE that ZUKODANY. No doubt it will expand and expand till they are scanning EVERYTHING everyone is doing all the time. It is one of those things that starts out with good intentions and than becomes a NIGHTMARE as they end up being the government.......monitor and SNITCH......for all of society. A TRUE step toward "1984" and the LOSS of ALL rights and personal freedoms.

AND.....since APPLE will be monitoring this post since I am on a Mac Book Pro.....NO I am not a supporter of child abuse.

 

It is nice to move into the weekend and be done with this week.....we move forward from here. Two days to not think about the markets......much. It was a GREAT week....in line with many of them that we have seen over the past 6-7 weeks this summer.

 

Well...all in all.....today was not too bad....even though every one of my stocks was in the RED. It knocked my account value back to my PRIOR all time high. So I lost.....ONE DAY of gains.

 

My problem Zukodany is that this is NOT the function of a private business. I dont know why APPLE would voluntarily take on the role of being a MONITOR of their customers private life.

Regardless of politics....this is NOT a good idea.....for a business to be invading the privacy of their customers on the basis that they "might"....catch....some TINY percentage of child abusers and perverts. It raises all sorts of privacy issues....and makes the company a quasi arm of the police or government. I think it shows a real blind spot and stupidity on the part of management to even put this out there at all. NOT to mention....the problem that I have with it that I expressed in the post above. At what point does it lap over into monitoring and reporting.....or.....attempting to control behavior that is NOT illegal or an unpopular view. To me it smacks of a bit of TOTALITARIANISM. I would think that CIVIL LIBERTARIANS......on all political sides.....would see the danger of this sort of conduct on the part of a private business. ESPECIALLY a very powerful private business. The chance for ABUSES far outweighs any TINY benefit. TOTALLY CREEPY. I dont like it as a shareholder......or....as a customer.