The Long Term Investor

BIG earnings next week.....yes earnings are STILL happening even though everyone seems to have just decided to ignore them.

Home Depot
Walmart
Nvidia
Target
TJX Companies
Lowe's
Applied Materials
Deere & Co

And many more. We are winding down but it will be a busy week for a few tech names and lots of retail businesses.

5 Retail Bigwigs Likely to Gain on Earnings Next Week

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/5-retail-bigwigs-likely-gain-111411220.html

From the article:

"Aggregate earnings of the market's benchmark — the S&P 500 Index — are on track to register a new all-time high with significant momentum on the revenue front."

"As of Aug 11, 454 companies of the S&P 500 Index reported results. Total earnings of these companies jumped 102.8% year over year on 27.5% higher revenues. Moreover, 87% of these companies beat their earnings per share (EPS) estimates and a record 86.6% surpassed revenue estimates.

For the second quarter as a whole, total earnings of the S&P 500 Index are expected to be up 92.5% year over year on 24.8% higher revenues. This indicates a massive improvement over the initial projection of EPS increasing 62.2% from the same period last year on 18.2% higher revenues.

These estimates are impressive primarily because second-quarter 2020 witnessed a lockdown owing to the global outbreak of the deadly coronavirus. Notwithstanding favorable comparisons with last year, second-quarter 2021 earnings estimates indicate more than 25% growth from the pre-pandemic second quarter of 2019.

More importantly, earnings expectations are increasing for the quarters yet to be reported. For example, expectations for aggregate earnings of the S&P 500 Index for third-quarter 2021 increased steadily from 13.5% on Jan 6 to 26.2% on Aug 11.

As of Aug 11, total 2021 earnings of the S&P 500 Index were projected to climb 41.9% on 12.7% higher revenues. For 2022 and 2023, S&P 500's total earnings like to grow 9.4% and 10.2% on 6.6% and 4.8% higher revenues, respectively."

MY COMMENT

EXACTLY as you would expect. Earnings are going to end up at HISTORIC levels. There is little to no notice of any of this....especially....in the general news. I expect stocks to continue their RELENTLESS move up over the rest of the year and into next year.....in spite of the current confusion and disruption occurring in the economy and society. I have seen this sort of ......STEALTH RALLY....many times in the past. What has been happening is a BIG reason why I stay fully invested all the time.....and....do not wait for entry points or use market timing.

 

The secret life of employees. Work from home......there is a reason that employees love it. HERE is an EXTREME example of why it is great for the employee. These are people working two jobs....at the same time....secretly. Reminds me of the story of the employee that.....secretly....outsourced his job to someone outside the country for much lower pay than he was collecting.....by turning in the work of his SECRET worker.

These people who work from home have a secret: They have two jobs
When the pandemic freed employees from having to report to the office, some saw an opportunity to double their salary on the sly. Why be good at one job, they thought, when they could be mediocre at two?

https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/people-who-work-from-home-secret-two-jobs

 

ACTUALLY.....long term investing......is the SAFEST way for any new INEXPERIENCED investor to invest. It does REQUIRE one logical step......putting the money into a BROAD index like the SP500. The second REQUIREMENT......the ability......mentally......to leave the money there and not get shaken out of the market every time stocks go down or there is some fear driven market event.

Following this sort of path....will allow the new investor to be exposed to the markets and achieve market gains.....while they take the time to educate themselves about investing. At the same time....the new investor will PROBABLY beat MOST active investors since VERY FEW can come anywhere close to the returns of the SP500.

Of course......since most uneducated new investors think that investing is TRADING....and all the other BALONEY that they see in the crazy short term investing world every day in the media......it is a RARE new investor that has the mentality to do the above.

ACTUALLY.....investing in this way is PROBABLY the BEST way for ANY investor to invest....not just new investors.

 

This is a POSITIVE and NEGATIVE indicator for the direction of the markets....at the same time.

Wall Street Is the Most Bullish on Stocks in Almost Two Decades

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-most-bullish-stocks-121500623.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"(Bloomberg) -- It’s been two decades since Wall Street analysts were this upbeat.

About 56% of all recommendations on S&P 500 firms are listed as buys, the most since 2002. It’s one more data point that shows the extent of the euphoria sweeping markets after a blockbuster earnings season.

While analysts are historically a bullish bunch, they’re turning even more optimistic in the face of relentless stock-market gains and corporate earnings that topped even the highest expectations. For all the concerns about the delta variant, China’s regulatory crackdown or waning Federal Reserve stimulus, it hasn’t made much of a dent yet on stock prices.

“It’s not just financial conditions and low rates fueling the appetite for risk assets -- tremendous fundamental improvement is forecast into 2022,” Todd Jablonski, chief investment officer at Principal Global Asset Allocation, said in a note.

U.S. companies aren’t the only ones feeling the love. In Europe, about 52% of recommendations on Stoxx 600 firms are buy or equivalent, a 10-year high. In Asia, that number jumps to 75%, the highest proportion since at least 2010.

The second-quarter earnings season was one of the strongest in history, even if helped by comparison with a period last year when many parts of the world were in the grip of pandemic lockdowns. U.S. profit growth of 90% was 17 percentage points better than expected, while a 71% rise in Europe surprised positively by 16 percentage points, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

In both regions, results were stronger than implied by the acceleration in growth momentum during the period, JPMorgan strategists said in a note.

Price Targets

While some of that earnings optimism has been priced into markets, analysts see scope for more gains. Converting aggregated 12-month price targets for Stoxx 600 members implies about 9% upside for the index from current levels, while for the S&P 500 the implied gain is about 10% and for Asia 21%.

For Ben Laidler, global markets strategist at Etoro Ltd., the reopening trade “hasn’t even started yet.” For companies like restaurants, tour operators, airlines and hotels, earnings are still down 85% from where they were coming into this crisis, he said on Bloomberg TV, leaving clear scope for a rebound.

Luc Aben, chief economist at Kempen & Co., has a positive view on value equities. “These are over-represented in sectors that were greatly affected by the coronavirus pandemic,” he said in a note. “If the recovery persists, the style rotation could get going again.”

Yet such bullish sentiment doesn’t come without a hint of exuberance and it wouldn’t be the first time that investors were caught on the wrong foot.

“I’m a believer that the market moves in whatever direction hurts the most participants,” said Dave Lutz, head of ETFs at JonesTrading Annapolis. “If all the analysts on the Street are bullish, I’d be very cautious,” he said in a note.

Right now though, markets are in no mood for a correction. The last time the S&P 500 Index saw a peak to trough decline of 5% or more was 193 days ago, about twice the long-term average.

“There is a lot of dip-buying power on the sidelines and any correction that might be justified could also be short-lived,” Salm-Salm & Partner portfolio manager Frederik Hildner said by phone."

MY COMMENT

Yes...an indicator of the potential for the.....best of times....going forward. Earnings have been DISRESPECTED or ignored. As we see the next couple of quarters of earnings there will be a lot of UPSIDE room for the markets to run. PLUS.....we have not scratched the surface of re-opening.

At the same time, analysts being so positive may very well be an indicator of a market top and the start of the....worst of times.....a correction or even a bear market. The BIG BLACK SWAN......actions by government that are either INCOMPETENT or BRAINLESS or FANTASY that end up severely hurting the economy and the business environment.

For me......a TOTAL INDICATOR.....for being a long term investor through whatever it all happens to mean......when we look back at the REALITY.

 

WELL.....the weekend has FLOWN BY.....we are back to the markets tomorrow. Here is what we are facing this week.

Retail sales, Target and Walmart earnings: What to know this week

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/reta...arnings-what-to-know-this-week-151158073.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"The U.S. consumer will be in focus this week, with the Commerce Department's monthly retail sales report and earnings results from two of the country's largest big box retailers all on deck.

Tuesday's report from the Commerce Department is expected to show that retail sales dropped in July compared to June, with consumer spending pulling back as concerns over the Delta variant increased and the impacts of government-issued stimulus checks earlier this year waned.

Consensus economists expect to see a 0.2% drop in retail sales month-on-month following June's 0.6% gain. This would be the first monthly drop since May, though it would still leave retail sales up markedly from last year's pandemic-depressed levels. Retail sales have risen in four of the past six months, with notable surges coming in January and March in the wake of the distribution of stimulus checks.

While the underlying trend in consumer spending is decelerating, some of the expected drop in July's retail sales report will also be technical, some economists pointed out. Namely, Amazon (AMZN) – one of the largest retailers in the U.S. — held its annual Prime Day sales extravaganza a month early in June rather than in July, pulling forward the rush of spending and creating a tougher comparison to retail sales compared to last year. E-commerce sales — or "non-store retailers' sales," as the Commerce Department labels them — grew 1.2% in June overall compared to May.

"One of the main reasons for July's weakness was due to a slowdown in online retail sales, which we believe owes in large part to the timing of Prime Day promotions this year," Bank of America economist Michelle Meyer wrote in a note Friday. "Historically, Prime Day is in mid-July but this year was pulled forward to June. Since the seasonal factors are set based on a gain in July, the data will be adjusted lower on a [seasonally adjusted] basis for online spending."

Meyer also notes that the government retail sales report captures more consumer spending on goods rather than on services, and therefore will likely also downplay the spending that has been occurring in the travel and leisure industries as consumer mobility picked up in the coming months.

But with coronavirus cases rising as the Delta variant spreads, the path forward for consumer spending has become less clear. Recent data showing a rapid deterioration in consumer confidence has been most concerning on this front, suggesting consumers' propensity to spend might be sinking.

On Friday, the headline index in the University of Michigan's preliminary August sentiment survey sank to 70.2 — the lowest level since 2011, and a tick below even April 2020's previous pandemic-era low of 71.8. An increase in concern over the pace of the economic recovery due to the Delta variant was one of the primary drivers of the decrease, according to the institution.

The disappointing University of Michigan sentiment print "suggests the latest wave of virus cases driven by the Delta variant could be a bigger drag on the economy than we had thought," Andrew Hunter, senior U.S. economist for Capital Economics, wrote in a note Friday.

"With the fiscal stimulus boost now well passed and surging prices starting to hit real incomes, the drop in confidence is another reason to expect consumption growth to slow sharply over the coming months," he added.

Walmart, Target earnings
Quarterly earnings results from Walmart and Target are set to provide more details on trends in consumer spending at the individual company level.

Both companies have seen their e-commerce businesses benefit from the shift to digital transactions during the pandemic, while also gaining as consumers sought out big box stores that facilitated one-stop shopping trips for all necessities.

One of the primary challenges for both companies will be showing Wall Street they have still grown and retained the customers and level of sales brought on during the pandemic. The second quarter of last year marked the height of stay-in-place orders in the U.S., putting second-quarter results for this year up against especially tough comparisons.

Walmart, the biggest retailer in the U.S., is expected to see overall revenue dip by 1% to $136.6 billion for its July quarter, marking its first year-over-year sales decline since fiscal 2016. E-commerce sales are expected to decelerate further, and most recently grew at a 37% rate in the first quarter after peaking at a 97% growth rate in the second quarter of last year.

In May before the Delta variant began spreading widely in the U.S., Walmart had raised its second-quarter and full-year outlook, citing momentum after a better-than-expected start to the year.

"The second quarter started off a bit better than originally anticipated as stimulus spending [continued] to benefit certain general merchandise categories, and we expect grocery market share gains to continue," said Walmart Chief Financial Officer Brett Biggs during the company's last earnings call. The updated guidance at the time assumed second-quarter earnings per share, excluding divestitures, would be up by "low-single digits" compared to last year, and that U.S. comparable same store sales, excluding fuel, would be up by a similar margin.

Walmart may also have benefitted from spending leading up to the back-to-school season and from a pick-up in shopping in-person during the quarter. According to data from Placer.ai, Walmart's foot traffic returned to pre-pandemic levels in July as visits rose 2.9% compared to the same month in 2019.

For Target, the jump in foot-traffic has been even greater on a two-year stack, surging by 15.9% in July compared to 2019, according to Placer.ai.

The Minneapolis-based retailer is expected to grow revenue to $24.5 billion for the second quarter, marking an increase of 8% over last year — an above-trend growth rate by pre-pandemic standards, but a slowdown from the 23% increase posted in both the first quarter of this year and the comparable quarter last year.

Target has also continued to grow digital sales even after last year's surge, with digital sales climbing 50% in the first quarter this year after a 141% jump in early 2020. A pick-up in higher-priced clothing and beauty sales may also have helped boost Target's margins in the second quarter, with consumers purchasing goods in anticipation of going back out.

Shares of Target have climbed 48% so far for the year-to-date, outpacing the S&P 500's nearly 19% gain over that period. Walmart's stock has increased 3.6% over the same period.

Economic calendar

• Monday: Empire Manufacturing, August (26.3 expected, 43.0 in July); Total net TIC flows, June ($105.3 billion in May); Net long-term TIC flows, June (-$30.2 billion in May)
  
  
• Tuesday: Retail sales advance month-on-month, July (-0.2% expected, 0.6% in June); Retail sales excluding autos and gas, July (0.2% expected, 1.1% in June); Industrial production, month-on-month, July (0.5% expected, 0.4% in June); Capacity utilization, July (75.7% expected, 75.4% in June); Manufacturing production, July (0.7% expected, -0.1% in June); Business inventories, June (0.8% expected, 0.5% in May); NAHB Housing Market Index, August (80 expected, 80 in July)
  
  
• Wednesday: MBA mortgage applications, week ended August 13 (2.8% during prior week); Building permits, month-on-month (1.0% expected, -5.3% in June); Housing starts, July (-2.3% expected, 6.3% in June); FOMC Meeting Minutes
  
  
• Thursday: Initial jobless claims, week ended August 13 (375,000 during prior week); Continuing claims, week ended August 7 (2.866 million during prior week); Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, August (24.2 expected, 21.9 in July); Leading index, July (0.8% expected, 0.7% in June)
  
  
• Friday: N/A
  

Earnings calendar

• Monday: Roblox (RBLX), Danimer Scientific (DNMR) after market close
  
  
• Tuesday: Walmart (WMT), Home Depot (HD) before market open; Krispy Kreme (DNUT) after market close
  
  
• Wednesday: Target (TGT), Lowe's (LOW), The TJX Companies (TJX) before market open; Robinhood Markets (HOOD), Nvidia (NVDA), Cisco Systems (CSCO), Victoria's Secret & Co. (VSCO), Bath & Body Works (BBWI) after market close
  
  
• Thursday: Estee Lauder (EL), Tapestry Inc. (TPR), Kohl's (KSS), Macy's (M) before market open; Applied Materials (AMAT) after market close
  
  
• Friday: Deere & Co. (DE), Foot Locker (FL) before market open"

MY COMMENT

Looks like a normal week..........with the typical fear mongering over Delta, Inflation, and a couple of economic reports. PLUS........some big earnings that will cause the reporting companies stock to FALL if they fail to beat the estimates......and.....will cause the reporting companies stock to FALL if they beat estimates.......BUT........report any sort of forward looking statement that can IN ANY WAY be twisted around to some negative conclusion....which....in reality rarely ever happens.

Personally as a shareholder I am looking forward to the reports from Home Depot and Nvidia next week. I find this little article INTERESTING for what it does not discuss.......the earnings that we will see next week from......LOWE'S, HOME DEPOT, ROBINHOOD, NVIDIA, CISCO, APPLIED MATERIALS, and DEERE.

 

About the best I can say today is that the markets are open. There is no leadership and a DISTINCTLY negative feel to the markets. About the best I can say about today is that I am significantly beating the SP500 at the moment......and....the amount that I am down is SLIGHT.

 

I am NOW going to......MENTALLY.....put Amazon on my watch list.

I do not plan to make any rushed move....but.....I will see where the company ends the year and will watch how it does next year. So.....a long term watch. If the significant UNDER-PERFORMANCE continues for the next 16 months....I will consider selling and taking my profit. I dont care how ICONIC a company is or how much they are making. If they can not translate that into gains and benefits for shareholders than it is NOT an investment that I care to participate in.

At this point they are my largest holding. They have SEVERELY under performed the general markets for YTD and for one year.

Year To Date +2.00%

One Year +3.56%

In comparison five year return is +330%. Three year return is +75%.

 

EVENTUALLY the world will re-open and move on from COVID and we will see that it is still a world wide DEFLATIONARY situation just like the past 11 years.

US STOCKS-S&P 500, Dow drop from peaks as China data sours mood

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-stocks-p-500-dow-141810808.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Aug 16 (Reuters) - The Dow and the S&P 500 slipped from record highs on Monday as glum data from China sparked fears of slowing global growth and hurt shares of sectors that are closely linked to the health of the U.S. economy.

The data showed that retail sales, industrial production and urban investment in China all missed forecasts, pointing to the impact of the fast-spreading Delta variant of the coronavirus and knocking down prices of oil and other commodities.

Nine of the 11 major S&P sectors declined in early trading. Energy and materials shares were the top laggards, down 2.6% and 1.3% respectively.

Freeport-McMoRan, the world's largest publicly traded copper producer, lost 4.5%.

Interest rate-sensitive banking stocks fell 2.2%, tracking U.S. Treasury yields lower.

"The expectation is that Delta could be slowing things down ... the concern is how much more, not only in China but also around the globe, could be affected by the Delta variant and that is still yet to be decided," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA.

The rapid spread of the coronavirus variant has clouded market sentiment recently, with a survey last week showing U.S. consumer sentiment dropped sharply in early August to its lowest level in a decade.

Coronavirus cases in the United States rose by at least 37,024 on Sunday to a total of 36.85 million, according to a Reuters tally.

Travel stocks were under pressure, with the S&P 1500 airlines and hotels and restaurant & leisure indexes down 2.3% and 1.2% after gaining earlier this year on hopes of a rebound in travel.

At 9:59 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 264.26 points, or 0.74%, at 35,251.12, the S&P 500 was down 26.38 points, or 0.59%, at 4,441.62, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 117.42 points, or 0.79%, at 14,705.47.

U.S. stocks managed to grind to new highs over the past few sessions as investor confidence in a recovery was bolstered by a strong earnings season, the passage of a large infrastructure bill and data showing inflation was rising at a slower pace than feared.

The S&P 500 value index, which houses stocks that stand to benefit the most from an economic rebound, and its tech-heavy growth counterpart have gained 1.1% each so far in August.

Earnings reports from companies including Target Corp , Walmart Inc, Home Depot Inc, Robinhood Markets Inc, Nvidia Corp and Macy's Inc are due later this week.

Tencent Music Entertainment Group fell 5.4% ahead of its results after market close as Soros Fund Management dissolved its stake in the Chinese music platform.

Tesla Inc slid 3.6% after U.S. auto safety regulators opened a formal safety probe into the electric-car maker's driver assistance system Autopilot after a series of crashes involving emergency vehicles.

Declining issues outnumbered advancers for a 3.38-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and for a 4.25-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq.

The S&P index recorded 30 new 52-week highs and one new low, while the Nasdaq recorded 27 new highs and 142 new lows."

MY COMMENT

Sooner or later we WILL get back to a "normal" economy. It is likely that the economy at that point will be similar to the world wide economy that we saw for the past 11 years. It was not a pretty sight in the EU and many other areas of the world.......as world wide DEFLATION was the norm in spite of all the actions that were taken. Yet another reason.....why I ONLY invest in AMERICAN companies.

As to China.....a total failure. There is NOTHING that can be trusted with that economy, their numbers, or anything you can invest in. A TOTALLY artificial situation.....run be dishonest people.

The markets seemed like they were in a PANIC this morning at the open. People are on EDGE and the situation in Afghanistan is not helping. Sooner or later some of this NEGATIVE stuff is going to stick and we are going to see a CORRECTION. I STILL believe that the probability is that we WILL have a correction before the end of the year and most likely in the next 12 weeks. Not that it matters......if I am right or wrong.....I will not do anything.

 

Today was a.....hard path.....to a new personal all time high.....but....I will take it. I ended up with a nice medium level GREEN day. Every holding was in the green except for NVIDIA. As an added bonus I got a nice beat on the SP500 by 0.30%.

Definitely a CRAZY day. Seemed like panic selling at the open and certainly a very negative feeling....but.....as the day progressed the averages slowly caught hold and turned positive. We ended the day with a mixed result....the DOW and the SP500 positive and the NASDAQ in the negative. I was lucky that the NASDAQ weakness did not seem to impact me in the slightest....other than NVDA.

 

What a SCHIZOPHRENIC Day.....glad to have this one over with.

Stock market news live updates: S&P 500 and Dow gain to close at record highs; Nasdaq holds slightly lower

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-august-16-2021-114530951.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Stocks recovered earlier losses on Monday to narrowly eke out fresh record levels as investors looked past geopolitical and growth concerns.

The S&P 500 turned slightly positive in the final hours of trading, logging a record intraday high. The Dow also turned slightly positive, while the Nasdaq held lower. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell back below 1.3%. U.S. West Texas intermediate crude oil futures sank by more than 1% to trade around $67 per barrel.

The earlier moves lower – with the Dow down by as many as 284 points at session lows – came as jitters over the pace of global economic growth and risks to the outlook increased, with new economic data out of China disappointing on multiple fronts. Retail sales and industrial production each slowed more than expected in the world's second-largest economy in July, suggesting a more marked growth deceleration in the second half of the year as the country tries to contain fallout from the latest resurgence in coronavirus cases.

Elsewhere, disorder in Afghanistan weighed further on global markets, with chaos reported at the Kabul airport as civilians tried to flee from the country swiftly overtaken by the Taliban.

Lingering worries about the Delta variant have also been at play for investors, offset only partially by optimism over what has been to-date an exceptionally strong corporate earnings season. This week, a handful of additional S&P 500 index components will report quarterly results, with retail names like Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT) and Home Depot (HD) set to be among the most closely watched.

"I think it'll be very key to hear from U.S. retail companies to see not only if this Delta variant surge is having any impact to consumer behavior, but also to what their projections are for the rest of the year, given that we're in the back to school spending season," Margaret Reid, senior portfolio manager at Union Bank, told Yahoo Finance. "And we'll also get July retail sales ... so a lot of incremental data points in the coming week with ties to the Delta variant."

As of Friday afternoon, 91% of S&P 500 companies had reported second-quarter earnings results, and 87% of these had topped consensus estimates on earnings per share, according to FactSet. The expected overall growth rate for S&P 500 earnings stands at 89.3%, which would be the fastest increase since the fourth quarter of 2009.

According to many pundits, the robust rebound in corporate profits has been and will likely continue to be fuel for the market going forward, helping to counterbalance concerns over an inevitable deceleration in growth as the recovery matures.

"In an earnings season with many surprises – including the highest frequency of EPS [earnings per share] beats in our 22-year data history – one of the most notable was the surge in corporate buyback activity," David Kostin, chief U.S. equity strategist for Goldman Sachs, wrote in a note on Monday. "Strong corporate equity demand is one reason we forecast a 5% return to our S&P 500 year-end target of 4700."

12:12 p.m. ET: Three factors underpinning cyclical stocks' latest move higher: Strategist
Over the past month, the financials, materials and healthcare sectors have been the outperformers in the S&P 500, as cyclical stocks with earnings tied to the economic recovery caught another bid higher despite ongoing concerns over the Delta variant.

According to one strategist, three key factors have been behind the latest rotation.

"The U.S. data's been fairly strong despite some of the Delta risk," Stuart Kaiser, UBS head of equity derivatives, told Yahoo Finance. "We got through earnings. Typically during earnings, large-cap tech performs really well and that higher quality stock does a bit better because they're reporting really strong results. So I think getting through earnings helped people get the confidence to get into those lower quality cyclicals."

"And then the third part would be on the rates side, it looks like yields have bottomed a bit and started to rise a touch, and that tends to be generally positive for cyclicals," he added. "I think a combination of those three things as well as a lot of people have cited data out of the UK showing that the Delta variant hasn't completely disrupted their economy ... so maybe that trims the tail risk as well."

10:12 a.m. ET: New York State manufacturing activity slid more than expected in August
The New York Federal Reserve's closely watched Empire State manufacturing activity index pulled back more than expected in August, signaling a sharp deceleration in the goods-producing sector after July's record surge.

The Empire State index dipped to 18.3 in August from 43.0 a month earlier, according to the new report Monday morning. Consensus economists were looking for a print of 28.5, according to Bloomberg data. Readings above 0 indicate expansion in a sector.

Supply chain issues continued to be a major source of pressure on the manufacturing sector, both in the state and nation-wide. However, indexes tracking future new orders and shipments each increased during the month, as did manufacturing firms' assessments of the six-month outlook. "

MY COMMENT

LOTS of moving parts going on today. The ten year treasury slipped back below 1.3%. At the same time the manufacturing data from the New York Fed showed weakness and continued supply chain issues. This is ALL good news for a continuation of the current FED policies.....perhaps to the end of the year. Add in COVID and the potential impact on the re-opening and you have even MORE reason for the FED to be cautious and DO NOTHING in calendar year 2021.

On the earnings front....we are setting records for beats and earnings growth in the SP500. This creates a HISTORIC strength to the markets that is very EVIDENT on a day like to day when stocks just simply.......REFUSED........to go down in spite of the DISMAL start to the day. The.....continued....great earnings....and....refusal of the markets to give credit based on an IRRATIONAL focus on forward looking statements.....is another KEY factor in the markets current strength and the PROBABILITY that the FED will not do anything this year.

The mood of the country....and investors.....is very NERVOUS. Everyone is waiting for the next BIG SHOE to drop....with no idea what it might be. Everyone is walking around on eggshells. Fine with me if the markets continue their.......RELENTLESS move up.

 

Nice to see the recent STRENGTH in Bitcoin....even though I do not.....and have ZERO plans....to put any money into it. It is now back over $46,000. With everything else going on right now we DO NOT need to be worrying about Bitcoin.

I am ALSO glad to see those that do invest in it.......having some recent success since.....positivity and making money.....is CONTAGEOUS.

 

I am not a Bitcoin investor.....but am I missing something?

When you use it to buy something you are creating a capital gain or loss...is that correct? Seems to me that is the position of the IRS.

How can this ever be used as a currency when every single transaction will create either a capital gain or loss? Imagine if every time you used a dollar bill you had to account for a capital gain or loss based on the value of a dollar in the currency markets at that exact moment.

I think this is the greatest impediment to using Bitcoin as a currency substitute.

 

With the gains today I have now hit a return of +20.49% year to date. This is the best that I have been at all year. The SP500 is nipping at my heals with a return as of today at +19.27%.

Earlier in the year I was able to open up a significant lead over the SP500....but.....I lost it all and more when the BIG CAP tech stocks went cold. I have now fought my way back....but.....I am so far not able to open up much of a lead over the SP500. I am not complaining....just thinking that it would be nice to have more of a cushion going into the final four months of the year.

 

A BRUTAL day for the markets today. Not unexpected after the open yesterday and the lack of GUTS by modern investors. I am CERTAINLY NOT at my +20% gain for the year anymore. BUT....so far down by about 1.5%.....a typical day in the modern world of investing.

I sold a small bit of stock at the open this morning to LOCK IN some of my personal all time high gains for a......kitchen project.....that we will be starting in a month or two. I sold......2 shares......of Amazon and.....7 shares of Apple.....to raise $10,000. We will be doing a change over of our counter tops and back splash at a cost of about $33,000. I wanted to take 10K of that out of one of the stock accounts since it was at a record high.

I am currently all RED in my individual stocks. Just one of those days.....in the life of a long term investor.

 

AHHHHH yes.....my Home Depot earnings.....typical. A BEAT across the board......but the stock is being punished due to some of the store statistics......that in my view are meaningless.

Home Depot shares tumble despite earnings beat, retailer rang up fewer customers as DIY trends weaken

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/17/home-depot-hd-q2-2021-earnings.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Key Points

• Home Depot’s same-store sales came in slightly short of Wall Street estimates, as fewer people visited its shops to buy items for do-it-yourself projects.
• The home improvement chain reported a 5.8% drop in customer transactions from a year earlier, but the average ticket was 11.3% larger.
• Home Depot has yet to provide an outlook for the full year.

Home Depot shares tumbled nearly 5% Tuesday morning after the company said fewer customers visited its stores during the fiscal second quarter as pandemic-fueled do-it-yourself projects tapered off.

The home improvement retailer also didn’t provide a full-year outlook, citing uncertainty around the Covid pandemic and the spreading delta variant.

While Home Depot’s quarterly profit and revenue beat Wall Street estimates, same-store sales came in slightly below expectations as the company lapped a period a year earlier when customers flocked to its stores to buy paint, wood, gardening supplies and other materials for home remodeling projects.

CEO Craig Menear said that while consumers are returning to pre-pandemic activities outside of their homes, the company still sees people engaged in house improvement projects, and increasingly larger projects. Sales from the professional customer, though, outpaced those of the DIY customer for the second quarter in a row.

U.S. same-store sales were up just 3.4% in the latest quarter, compared with a 25% jump in the year-ago period.

Here’s how the company did for its fiscal second quarter compared with what Wall Street was expecting, according to a survey of analysts by Refinitiv:

• Earnings per share: $4.53 vs. $4.44 expected
• Revenue: $41.12 billion vs. $40.79 billion expected

For the three months ended Aug. 1, net income grew to $4.81 billion, or $4.53 per share, from $4.33 billion, or $4.02 per share, a year earlier. Analysts had been looking for $4.44 per share, according to a Refinitiv survey.

Revenue climbed 8.1% to $41.12 billion from $38.05 billion a year earlier. That topped expectations for $40.79 billion.

Total same-store sales rose 4.5%. That was short of the more than 5% growth anticipated from analysts polled by StreetAccount.

The company said kitchen and bath and lumber were its two strongest departments, while sales in paint, hardware, and indoor and outdoor garden were negative on a year-over-year basis.

The company reported a 5.8% drop in customer transactions compared with a year earlier, but the average ticket was 11.3% larger. Sales per retail square foot grew 5.3% year over year to $663.05.

Inflation is one factor boosting sales. President and COO Ted Decker said lumber prices peaked during the latest quarter, but some types of lumber have since seen prices plummet. Inflation from core commodity categories positively impacted Home Depot’s average ticket growth by roughly 420 basis points, he said.

“Home improvement was a big Covid winner, and Home Depot performed masterfully through the crisis,” Oppenheimer Senior Analyst Brian Nagel told CNBC. “But I’ve got to believe that as the economy opens up, as people start to move around again, there’s going to be less of a focus on spending on the home. And that’s what we’re seeing in these numbers now.”

Shares Lowe’s fell more than 4% Tuesday, a day before the Home Depot rival reports earnings.

Wells Fargo retail analyst Zachary Fadem noted that Home Depot shares have outperformed both Lowe’s and the S&P 500 index in the past two months. Although Home Depot’s second-quarter same-store sales disappointed, Fadem said he still expects the chain’s profits for the year to move higher.

A strong housing market, with increasing home prices and low mortgage rates, has aided home improvement chains Home Depot and Lowe’s. But analysts are watching to see how long this trend continues, with the delta variant forming the latest headwind for retail businesses. Unease about the rising number of Covid cases could curtail consumer spending.

Home Depot faces tough comparisons with a year earlier, when its brick-and-mortar stores remained open during the pandemic, and many Americans invested in remodeling projects. Home Depot’s revenue growth is expected to slow in 2021.

In the coming quarters, Home Depot and Lowe’s are vying for the business of home professionals, such as electricians — who typically place orders in bulk. Home Depot recently added to its pro business with the acquisition of HD Supply, a large distributor of appliances, plumbing and electrical equipment.

While Home Depot didn’t offer a complete outlook for 2021, CFO Richard McPhail said during an earnings conference call that during the first two weeks of August, same-store sales in the U.S. have been in line with trends in the second quarter.

“Customer engagement and demand for home improvement is healthy,” he said. “Housing remains strong, and we see a supportive environment for home improvement spending as we look out over the next several years.”

Home Depot shares are up about 26% year to date as of Monday’s market close."

MY COMMENT

A GREAT earnings report with very few......slight....negatives. In fact I do not consider that there are ANY negatives. Considering historic norms there were SIGNIFICANT earnings.

The.....gratuitous......commentary in the headline of this article regarding ringing up fewer sales due to a weakening of the DIY trade is just.....ridiculous opinion. The professional customers are buying increasingly large amounts and the average RETAIL customer sale is UP in dollar amount.

If I had money siting around I would be BUYING. If you notice the old fashioned....lumber yard.....has nearly completely disappeared from the USA. More and more contractors are NOW buying their materials from Home Depot.

On an anecdotal level......my recent contact with my handyman and various contractors and suppliers tells me that the construction and contractor BOOM is continuing and even increasing.