The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    We had weekly pool service......but...I always enjoyed pool brushing and using the net to skim off leaves and other stuff...very relaxing. I also had no problem with cleaning out the skimmers....although I learned very quickly to NEVER put your hand in one without removing the cover.....snakes or tarantulas....were found inside. I did a lot of "net work" since we had large oak trees around the pool.
     
  2. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I was surprised to see that I was in the green. Thanks to Nvidia, Microsoft, Costco.......and....a bit from Proctor & Gamble. BUT....with the last hour INSANITY we could see a 300 point swing either way from here.....so I am not counting my chickens.
     
  3. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    At this rate Amazon looks very promising at 3100 for me to add more shares. Not buying the “tapering“ hype much like I didn’t buy the “inflation” hype. Its all just more of the same of what 2021 had for us in the beginning of the year…
    Kinda surprised that you’re tossing Amzn under the bus so quickly W, I mean, you’re in it long term and you admittedly stated that Amzn is the clear leader in all American big cap and big tech industry. Is it gonna go to all time highs in the next 3-6 months? Quite possibly. Did it have disappointing earnings? Not at all… so not sure how you’d consider selling it so quickly.
    What we’re seeing now with Amazon is what we’re seeing with all GREAT COMPANIES all across the board… lack of excitement with the traders/meme stock/crypto investors… they’re ditching boring stocks like Amazon to chase ETH, AMC, HOOD…
    Too much volatility there. I’d just stay where I am right now and not worry about getting too much of anything this year, unless I considered trading and selling dips
     
  4. gtrudeau88

    gtrudeau88 Well-Known Member

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    Remodeling of my house has been completed as of last week and the cost was over budget (38K versus 30K). Thought you might like to see how the cost of all this came out. To put this in context, we remodeled approximately 825+ sq feet which included the kitchen, dining room, living room, bedroom, den, hallway, and stairway to the 2nd floor. The remodel involved new floors, cabinetry, lighting, painting, new furniture, etc. We basically have an entire new main floor, expect for the already remodeled bath.

    FYI that I'm back to posting and paying attention to my stocks.,

    new furnishings, etc $1,900.00
    wood for shelves in den $73.00
    handyman to build shelves $50.00
    record player system (since we decluttered by getting rid of stereo cabinet) $106.05
    uhaul for furniture from Mom and Dad $1,708.67
    kitchen and dining cabinets, appliances (bought from Renovation Angel in NJ) $6,507.26
    new microwave $69.87
    quartz countertop (materials and install) $6,270.42
    new kitchen and dining lighting $344.74
    electrical work $2,915.00
    interior designer fee $770.00
    vinyl flooring (materials) $4,851.61
    paint costs, miscellaneous $740.00
    trash removal $215.00
    doghouse (so dog can be outside more, to protect furniture and rugs) $197.34
    faucet $227.07
    backsplash (materials) $385.36
    General Contractor charges below
    Floor installation - 825 sq ft $2,268.75
    Remove old hardwood floor $577.50
    Remove kitchen cabinets $250.00
    dumping fee $181.39
    subfloor repair in den $300.00
    scrape and retexture kitchen and dining ceilings $643.50
    paint living and dining rooms $300.00
    consulting fees $225.00
    install tile for backsplash $600.00
    misc painting and drywall repair $350.00
    cabinet painting $225.00
    labor for installing cabinets $920.00
    labor for kitchen trim, kitchen painting, hood hookup $637.50
    other labor $975.00
    labor of helpers (i.e. apprentices) $772.50
    install storm door $125.00
    materials cost (wood for trim, particle board, paint supplies, storm door, etc) $1,302.08

    Total spent: $37,984.61
     
    WXYZ likes this.
  5. duckleberry_fin

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    Do you have any record player recommendations? I bought my significant other a Victrola a few years ago and we've had all sorts of problems with it.
     
  6. duckleberry_fin

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    As for tapering, I've been wondering what the reaction would be if instead of talking about potentially tapering for months and months with no real action, the Fed took the exact opposite approach and just started tapering with no announcements - do we think there'd be panic in the markets? I suspect not, but who knows.
     
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  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    i think you are EXACTLY correct Duckleberry. If the FED just slowly started to buy less and taper.....most people would never know the difference and there wold be no impact at all. Even with all the attention on tapering and the FED...when tapering happens for most investors and the markets the DRAMA.....in reality.......will only last a week or two.
     
  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I am not writing Amazon off Zukodany. BUT.....I am going to keep an eye on them for the next year or two. Hopefully this little "lost year" will be an isolated event and they will get back to rewarding shareholders next year. Basically they are dead even for this year to date....+0.04%. For the past one year time period....they are NEGATIVE by (-3.32%).....a lost year.

    I have a lot of tolerance for them since they have had such AMAZINGLY STRONG gains over the past three and five years. Five years is +314%.....three years is +67.22%. I do think that their earnings are being DISRESPECTED......but....they need to show that they can create shareholder value. Stocks have a bad year once in a while......I have no issue with that considering the recent strong returns....but if it becomes 2-3 bad years in a row....than I will have to give them some thought.
     
  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I ended the day very nicely today. A nice GREEN day for me. Plus a solid beat on the SP500 by 0.42%.

    We need to end the week in GOOD STYLE tomorrow.

    Stock market news live updates: Stock futures edge higher, steadying amid earnings, lingering virus concerns

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-august-20-2021-221725011.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Stock futures opened slightly higher Thursday evening as investors considered the latest batch of earnings and economic data and continued to contemplate the path forward for monetary policy.

    Contracts on the S&P 500 edged up. Earlier, the index narrowly eked out its first positive trading session in three days. Technology stocks led the way higher, and the Nasdaq outperformed.

    Traders this week have watched a number of market concerns unfold, with infections related to the Delta variant continuing to climb and the Federal Reserve suggesting in its latest meeting minutes that officials believed the economy might recover enough by the end of the year to warrant a shift in their massive asset purchase program. New weekly jobless claims fell more than expected to a fresh pandemic-era low, signaling a notable step forward in the labor market's recovery.

    Meanwhile, corporate earnings results have come in mostly robustly, though many companies have highlighted supply chain constraints and input price increases as potential ongoing headwinds. Retailers Macy's (M) and Kohl's (KSS) each topped second-quarter estimates and delivered upbeat guidance in results posted Thursday morning, aided by a return of more foot traffic and in-person shopping. Deere (DE) and FootLocker (FL) are among the names posted results Friday morning.

    "There are a lot of risks out there right now. First of all, the market is looking stretched from a valuation perspective. It's continued to make record highs, even amidst some of the volatility that we've seen," Megan Horneman, director of portfolio strategy at Verdence Capital Advisors, told Yahoo Finance. "But we do have some economic concerns right now, just from the supply chain perspective, the inflation perspective. These things are probably going to be a problem for us longer than we had anticipated."

    "I think the biggest concern in the equity market would be a taper tantrum," she added. "Interest rates are so stubbornly low. And I think that markets are just waiting there to see if we get some big move higher in interest rates."

    Others suggested the ultimate market reaction to the Fed's eventual tapering announcement and commencement will be short-lived.

    "Given recent Fedspeak, and the upcoming Jackson Hold Symposium and September FOMC meeting, the timing of the Fed's reduction of asset purchases has been a widely discussed topic with many of our clients we speak to seemingly convinced that the stock market will have a tantrum once the tapering is announced," Brian Belski, BMO Capital Markets chief investment strategist, said in a note.

    "For our part, we do not think tapering will cause any sort of prolonged market havoc," he said. "Even when the Fed begins reducing the pace of its bond purchases, the size of its balance sheet will remain very large for quite some time, which should continue to be supportive of U.S. stocks.""

    MY COMMENT

    The vast majority of the above is in line with my view. We are just going to have to RIDE OUT the various short term factors that are impacting the markets........and.......are going to continue for some time.
     
  10. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I saw this data elsewhere yesterday....it is interesting......nothing to do with investing.

    61% of U.S. households paid no federal income tax last year

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/households-paid-no-income-tax-last-year-143002729.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "The majority of U.S. households paid no federal income taxes in 2020, a spike driven by the pandemic-induced economic downturn and multiple rounds of tax-based assistance. The trend is likely to continue in 2021.

    Nearly 107 million households — or 61% of U.S. households — owed no federal income taxes in 2020, according to estimates by The Tax Policy Center, marking a 40% increase from 2019 when 43.6% of households didn’t pay taxes.

    Even though those numbers are very dramatic, they are only temporary,” Howard Gleckman, senior fellow at the Tax Policy Center, told Yahoo Money. “What happened was because of COVID and then because of the policy response to COVID. Many more people did not pay federal income tax in 2020.”

    One reason for the drastic drop is the financial hardship many Americans experienced last year. More than 20 million workers lost their jobs in 2020 with low-income workers hit hardest. Many of the low-wage workers paid little income taxes before the pandemic, and the drop in income meant they owed even less money to the Internal Revenue Service.

    The government response to the pandemic further contributed to the lower number of income tax payers.

    The three rounds of stimulus checks — two of which were sent out in 2020 — were designed as a refundable tax credit, effectively reducing a household’s tax liability. The first $1,200 stimulus payment reached over 160 million people and the following rounds helped a similar number.

    “It was obviously an important piece,” Gleckman said. “These were very significant tax credits to people and these were dollar-for-dollar reductions in the amount of tax people paid.”

    ‘A lot of this was for families with children’
    The government response to the pandemic will continue to reduce the share of people paying income taxes in 2021, according to The Tax Policy Center, which estimates that 57% of households are expected to pay no federal income taxes this year.

    The expansion of the Child Tax Credit (CTC) and the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) — both refundable credits — will likely reduce or eliminate many households' liability for 2021.

    “A lot of this was for families with children who benefited quite a lot from the expansion of those credits,” Gleckman said. “As you go up the economic income ladder, fewer and fewer people are non-payers.”

    About 99.9% of households in the lowest quintile — those making below $28,000 — will effectively pay no federal income taxes in 2021. Around 75% of households in the second quintile — those families making between $28,000 and $55,000 — also won’t pay any taxes for the 2021 tax year.

    ‘These people did pay other taxes’
    While those households paid no federal income taxes and potentially little to no state income taxes in 2020, the majority of U.S. households pay other taxes.

    Nearly 80% of U.S. households paid either federal income taxes or payroll taxes in 2020, the report found. Additionally, many people are subject to state and local sales taxes, excise taxes, property taxes, or state income taxes.

    “These people did pay other taxes,” Gleckman said. “If you worked at all, you pay payroll taxes, you almost certainly paid sales taxes.”

    The spike in people not paying federal income taxes is only temporary, occurring only in 2020 and 2021, and then should return to normal levels, Gleckman said. In general, having an elevated share of people who don’t pay federal income taxes could lead to a public that’s less engaged in policy and how the government is working, according to Gleckman.

    “If this were permanent and you had a situation where 60% of the public wasn't paying federal income tax, that has some very important effects not just economic, but societal effects,” he said. ”It means that they have a lot less stake in the game.”"

    MY COMMENT

    Lets hope this is in fact....temporary. If it is not that will be a real issue for the country going forward. I was one of the 31% that did their part to finance the country last year.
     
  11. oldmanram

    oldmanram Well-Known Member

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    For me AMZN is looking better , it had it's big run up , as expected and deserved , I think it will just be stable for awhile , maybe even back off in the next month or so, I'm going to acquire some since MY time horizon is about 10 years. And who knows maybe those amazon stores will kill it with next generation.
    I also have this little thought in the back of my head , split split split , maybe the new CEO can sneak it by BOZO the next time he leaves the planet.
     
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  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I LOVE these posts by devebacker.

    "I would not count on stable growth. The sharp increase was due to a specific reason. Now this is less relevant."

    Usually only one line long. They are like a quote from the old KUNG FU TV show. Or it is like he is......Mr Miyagi.....and we are..... Daniel-San......in Karate Kid. Some day if I have the time I will go back on all the threads and put together a compilation of them. They are like Confucius or statements from......The Oracle. Layers and layers of meaning.
     
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  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    YOU know one of my favorite topics.....investing in china.

    The picture for Chinese tech stocks just keeps getting worse

    https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/20/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "London (CNN Business)China's escalating crackdown on the country's once-mighty technology sector shows no signs of abating, leaving investors to wonder: Where does the market rout end?

    What's happening: China passed sweeping new rules about the collection and use of personal data on Friday, just days after it proposed major changes to curb anti-competitive behavior by big internet firms. Beijing says the potential mishandling of data poses risks to national security as regulators apply pressure to companies that list overseas.
    "Once the privacy law comes into effect in November ... China's regulatory regime for tech will be one of the strictest of any major economy," said Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist at Capital Economics. "That's a remarkable shift from just a year or so ago when the opposite was true. "
    The news sent Hong Kong's Hang Seng down 1.8% as the index officially entered a bear market, having plunged 20% from its recent peak.

    The impact of Beijing's steady tightening of the screws on the country's tech giants is even more apparent when examining individual companies.

    It's been more than nine months since Alibaba (BABA) affiliate Ant Group suspended its public offering following a dust-up between China's regulators and co-founder Jack Ma. Yet the company's shares continue to get crushed.

    Alibaba's stock in Hong Kong, which shed 2.6% on Friday, has plummeted 32% year-to-date, erasing more than $180 billion in market value.

    Shares in New York tell a similar story, having lost 31% this year.

    JD.com (JD), another Chinese e-commerce company, saw its stock drop 2% in Hong Kong on Friday. It's down 29% in 2021.
    Consensus is growing that more pain is to come. Pritchard notes "legitimate concerns about the underlying motivations behind the abrupt crackdown and whether it forebodes broader efforts to rein in the private sector and shore up the position of the state."

    Meanwhile, the companies caught in the crossfire have made clear they think the campaign by regulators will only intensify.

    Tencent (TCEHY), the Chinese gaming and social media giant, said Wednesday that that "new regulations should be coming" in the near future.

    "The regulators are very focused on identifying and rectifying industry misbehavior and also efficient regulations," Martin Lau, Tencent's president, told analysts during a conference call. "They emphasize compliance, social responsibility as well as fair and proper behavior."

    Lau noted that the company would try to steer clear of trouble.
    "There will be short-term uncertainties and there are a lot of new regulations that will be coming, but we are pretty confident that we can be compliant," he said.

    But that didn't stop the company's shares from losing 9.5% this week. Year-to-date, they're down 25%."

    MY COMMENT

    WELL.....as usual......DUH. I love a company President saying we will be........"compliant"......and thinking that will take care of the FACT....that China is the worlds most brutal communist dictatorship......and....they are in TOTAL TOTALITARIAN control of every business in the country. they are masters of tightening the screws and than releasing pressure for a while to achieve whatever they want.
     
  14. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    AND......this is part of the article above.....our government in action.

    "US regulators take another stab at breaking up Facebook

    The Federal Trade Commission isn't backing away from its bid to break up Facebook (FB).

    The latest: Regulators filed an amended complaint in federal court on Thursday alleging the tech giant has monopolized social media and harmed competition, my CNN Business colleague Brian Fung reports.

    The new complaint comes nearly two months after a federal judge tossed out the original, arguing that the FTC had not provided sufficient evidence that Facebook holds a monopoly in social media.

    The fresh version — which is about 50% longer — will let regulators have another go. It claims that Facebook broke the law by engaging in anticompetitive acquisitions, most notably of Instagram and WhatsApp, and denied third-party apps access to Facebook's platform.

    In a statement, Facebook called the suit "meritless." Its deadline to respond in court is in early October.

    "There was no valid claim that Facebook was a monopolist — and that has not changed," the company said. "Our acquisitions of Instagram and WhatsApp were reviewed and cleared many years ago, and our platform policies were lawful.

    Step back: The stakes are high. The suit marks one of the largest legal challenges ever to Facebook's social media empire at a time when it faces mounting scrutiny in the United States and abroad. If successful, it could force Facebook to spin off Instagram or WhatsApp.

    Leading the charge is FTC Chair Lina Khan, a vocal critic of the tech industry who helped author a groundbreaking congressional report last year that found that Facebook, along with Amazon, Apple and Google, have abused dominant market positions to preserve their power. On Thursday, the FTC announced that Khan would not recuse herself from the Facebook case, despite calls from the company for her to do so.

    Investor insight: Investors aren't panicking. Shares of the company are up 30% so far this year. But increased regulation remains one of the top risks to Facebook's business."

    MY COMMENT

    I am not a fan....to say the least.....of ZUCK or the company. BUT....I hate to see the government taking this path. If they have any success in this case the rest of the BIG TECH world will be next......and that means companies that I actually own. YES....higher taxes, increased regulation.....the typical inability of government to keep their hands off private business.
     
  15. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    HERE are the.....short term concerns of the day.

    Stock market news live updates: Stocks rise as investors eye lingering virus, Fed policy concerns

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-august-20-2021-221725011.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)
    "Stocks reversed overnight declines to trade higher Friday, as investors considered the latest batch of earnings and economic data and continued to contemplate the path forward for monetary policy.

    The S&P 500 rose, though the index was on track to post a weekly decline for the first time in three weeks. Both the Nasdaq and Dow also moved to the upside.

    Traders this week have watched a number of market concerns unfold, with infections related to the Delta variant continuing to climb and the Federal Reserve suggesting in its latest meeting minutes that officials believed the economy might recover enough by the end of the year to warrant a shift in their massive asset purchase program. New weekly jobless claims fell more than expected to a fresh pandemic-era low, signaling a notable step forward in the labor market's recovery.

    Meanwhile, corporate earnings results have come in mostly robustly, though many companies have highlighted supply chain constraints and input price increases as potential ongoing headwinds. Manufacturing bellwether Deere (DE) beat estimates for fiscal third-quarter results and raised its full-year profit guidance, but the company noted these results came "while enduring significant supply-chain pressures." FootLocker (FL) also posted results that exceeded estimates Friday morning as more foot traffic returned, though the retailer also highlighted that it continues "to keep a close eye on the business, including temporary store closures and supply chain challenges, and we remain disciplined with expense management."

    "There are a lot of risks out there right now. First of all, the market is looking stretched from a valuation perspective. It's continued to make record highs, even amidst some of the volatility that we've seen," Megan Horneman, director of portfolio strategy at Verdence Capital Advisors, told Yahoo Finance. "But we do have some economic concerns right now, just from the supply chain perspective, the inflation perspective. These things are probably going to be a problem for us longer than we had anticipated."

    "I think the biggest concern in the equity market would be a taper tantrum," she added. "Interest rates are so stubbornly low. And I think that markets are just waiting there to see if we get some big move higher in interest rates."

    Others suggested the ultimate market reaction to the Fed's eventual tapering announcement and commencement will be short-lived.

    "Given recent Fedspeak, and the upcoming Jackson Hold Symposium and September FOMC meeting, the timing of the Fed's reduction of asset purchases has been a widely discussed topic with many of our clients we speak to seemingly convinced that the stock market will have a tantrum once the tapering is announced," Brian Belski, BMO Capital Markets chief investment strategist, said in a note.

    "For our part, we do not think tapering will cause any sort of prolonged market havoc," he said. "Even when the Fed begins reducing the pace of its bond purchases, the size of its balance sheet will remain very large for quite some time, which should continue to be supportive of U.S. stocks."

    10:23 a.m. ET: Expect a sharp rebound in growth once the latest virus spread abates: BofA
    The spread of the Delta variant both domestically and abroad has weighed heavily on the markets, raising concerns that the virus will once again stem growth.

    According to Bank of America, the disruptions caused by the Delta variant will likely prove short-lived, and generate yet another reopening-related jump in activity once this latest threat attenuates.

    "The U.S. slowdown is due to both the surge in COVID cases and severe supply-side constraints," Ethan Harris, global economist for Bank of America Global Research, said in a note. "China's slowdown is mainly due to policy tightening, combined with a slow response to the weaker data. In both instances we expect a return to solid growth starting in 4Q."

    "While we believe there will be some permanent growth destruction from Delta, it is more a change in the timing of growth, in our view," he added. "Once the Delta threat is reduced and this COVID wave subsides, we should see the return of pent-up spending for leisure services. Some categories will have a bigger bounce than others—perhaps travel more than restaurants/bars, for example—but we should see people reengage in these activities."

    MY COMMENT

    The ENTIRE first part of this article is recycled from yesterday. So the concerns being pushed by the short term thinkers....are exactly the same as yesterday. The info at the end from Bank Of America are basically the ONLY new content. Actually....these negative themes have been pushed for months now....over and over and over. They do not seem to be able to take hold for any length of time......but....they are able to shake up the markets once in a while.

    The BIG STORY right now...which the majority of the market watchers are totally ignoring....the DISASTER in Afghanistan. This is not a direct impact on investors....but it is a HUGE PSYCHOLOGICAL hit on the country as a whole and therefore investors. This is the PRIMARY reason....even though most will not say it.....for the losses this week.
     
  16. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    It is early....but....what KILLER day in the markets. We NEED to end the week with a BANG......a good bang........not a market imploding bang. It is a slow news day....NOTHING....new going on. Hopefully that carries us to a little one day RELIEF RALLY from the AWFUL PSYCHOLOGICAL impact of the news this week and the losses early in the week.

    ACTUALLY.....my view.....since I am a LIBERTARIAN and a free market CAPITALIST......the BEST thing for us as investors is the FACT that government is TOTALLY INCOMPETENT. It would be really SCARY if they could actually do anything. I include in this comment......BOTH SIDES.....this comment is NOT directed at just the current government.......I am talking both sides over many decades.
     
  17. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Markets are STILL on fire today. Nvidia is pure white heat today......up to $929 on a pre-split basis. Hitting an all time HIGH. We......at least "my" portfolio.....is seeing BIG gains today.
     
  18. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Another little article on my favorite BRUTAL DICTATORSHIP.

    No Home for Innovation
    Why China will never have the world’s preeminent economy.

    https://www.city-journal.org/chinas-corporate-crackdown

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Being the world’s preeminent economy means being on the vanguard of innovation—constantly coming up with new ideas that change the world, or at least having an economy that can recognize and adopt the latest and best technology. For more than a century, America has filled this role. Before that, it was the U.K., which was first to industrialize. Someday, another country will step into this position—but it will never be China.

    At least, not China under its current leadership. Over the past month, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has demonstrated why China will never be the world’s preeminent innovation leader, and thus why it will never be a global economic leader. Recent developments also offer a warning for American politicians and policymakers aiming to emulate some aspects of Chinese industrial policy.

    Beijing has halted what would have been one of the world’s largest IPOs. It has cracked down on gaming, social media, and tutoring companies by making it extremely difficult for them to list on American exchanges; it is blocking mergers, issuing fines for antitrust violations, questioning these firms’ use of data, and burdening them with other punitive regulations. It claims to be doing this for the good of society, echoing many of the same concerns Americans have regarding the influence of Big Tech. The Party claims that it wants to divert resources to more strategic industries, such as semiconductors.

    Markets have reacted to these moves, but not as strongly as one might expect. China’s actions, after all, are in keeping with how it has handled industrial policy in the past and with Beijing’s desire to control the pace and terms of economic growth. The approach has worked well so far: China has averaged more than 7 percent growth in the past ten years, and its GDP is on track to surpass that of the U.S. by 2032. But unless something changes, it’s unlikely that China can maintain this high growth rate or become the global economic leader on a per-capita GDP basis.

    We’ve seen this movie before. Other East Asian countries grew rapidly with industrial policy, albeit on a smaller scale. In the 1980s, many worried that the Japanese economy would soon dominate the world. This familiar narrative suggests that industrial policy can bring growth without risk. If only the wise government bureaucrat chooses the best investment projects, no one will lose money, and all the right people will make a profit. Absent continuous innovation, though, this strategy hits a wall, especially in societies with aging populations. So while South Korea, Singapore, and Japan are prosperous, they are not global economic powerhouses.

    Economists believe that countries can grow in certain ways—they can add more people, more capital, or both. China, like other East Asian countries, has grown rapidly by doing both. It took advantage of its large population by educating them and moving them into factories and cities, and it adopted foreign technology, making workers even more productive.

    After a while, this strategy runs out of steam. You must add new labor, or the economy starts to shrink. Adding more capital won’t make much difference, because, for example, one person can only use so many computers. At that point, the only way to grow is by being more productive than everyone else. That takes innovation—finding ways to use your existing inputs better. So far, China has not been tested in this way, and the latest round of economic restrictions suggests that it will never get there.

    Innovation doesn’t follow government plans. Often the most transformative innovations happen by accident or in areas where one would least expect it. That was the case for penicillin, vulcanized rubber, and the commercial steam engine. China’s now-hobbled gaming industry could have been creating the next major innovation—changing the world with its work in facial recognition, 3D spatial analysis, or deepfakes.

    Not only can governments not dictate what the next transformative innovation will be; they also cannot determine the best uses of the capital that funds innovation. Beijing is curtailing equity financing, especially from foreign investors. These inputs are crucial to growth for emerging companies. Cutting off equity capital limits these firms’ ability to commercialize their innovations. The market also brings discipline because investors demand efficiency, productivity, and commercial viability. They tend to be better at picking winners than government bureaucrats, who have different objectives.

    The industries Beijing favors may continue to grow and attract investors, but favored industries can change on a dime. And even these industries now operate at a disadvantage because the Chinese economy, and the world, just lost a major source of innovation. The odds are good that China will continue to grow for the next few years, but growth will slow as its population shrinks and China finds that it lacks the innovation needed to reach the pinnacle of the global economy. American politicians should take note."

    MY COMMENT

    At least China is the world preeminent at something......being the worlds most brutal totalitarian dictatorship. I am not too sure about the premise of this article. I dont think they have to be able to innovate. All they have to do is STEAL the technology just like they always do. Their legal system......the Chinese government....will do nothing. All they have to do is let us spend the money to innovate.....than take it for themselves and manufacture it for the world with their cheap labor. I am ALSO...not too sure that PRODUCTIVITY.....matters in a totalitarian state.

    Just like allowing them to steal our technology......I have no doubt.....that American investors will continue to support their economy by pouring BILLIONS in investment money into the Chinese government companies. YES......we are that DUMB.
     
  19. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    What an EXQUISITE way to end the week......BIG GREEN. I had a single stock in the red today.....Honeywell by a minuscule 0.03%. AND.....I got a nice FAT beat on the SP500 today by 0.70%.

    This was one of those days that my portfolio was red hot. Here are the names from my 10 stocks that exceeded a 1% gain today.......APPLE +1.02%.....NIKE +1.33%.....MICROSOFT +2.56%....COSTCO +1.04%....NVIDIA +5.14%....and...GOOGLE +1.29%. OUTSTANDING.
     
  20. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    In SPITE of today and yesterday ALL the general averages ended the week in the RED. BUT....considering how dire we were looking at about mid week......all in all a moral VICTORY. Depending on your particular portfolio......this was a pretty good week.

    DOW year to date +14.75%
    DOW for the week (-1.11%)

    SP500 year to date +18.25%
    SP500 for the week (-0.59%)

    NASDAQ 100 year to date +17.10%
    NASDAQ 100 for the week (-0.29%)

    NASDAQ year to date +14.17%
    NASDAQ for the week (-0.73%)

    RUSSELL year to date +9.76%
    RUSSELL for the week (-2.50%)

    How FICKLE the investing gods are. It was not too long ago that the RUSSELL was kicking ass for the year.....now....the WORST of the general averages.
     

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