The Long Term Investor

My sad tale of woe....I have been sick, sick, sick for the past three days. I finally crawled out of my cave. Negative for coivd, probably food poisoning. I am on Cypro and am hopefully past the worst now.

YES....this is investing related. BECAUSE....it shows the benefit of long term investing.....even if you are sick, even if you dont care, even if you dont have time......the markets move forward and so does your account. As a fully invested all the time long term investor I get the benefits of the markets even if I am totally out of touch. My investments just plug along on automatic pilot.

I notice that I made a new all time high while I was not able to look......and......thank you Emmett....the markets were up on both Thursday and Wednesday.

 

I seem to be going contrary to the markets today with 8 or 10 positions in the green. My only losers at the moment are Amazon and Honeywell.

 

Payrolls and jobs today were DISMAL.

August jobs report: Payrolls rise by disappointing 235,000 while unemployment rate falls to 5.2%

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/augu...s-labor-department-coronavirus-194347179.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"The U.S. economy added back jobs at a far slower pace in August following an early-summer jump in employment, as an initial wave of reopening hiring waned and concerns over the Delta variant increased.

The Labor Department delivered its monthly jobs report at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday morning. Here were the main metrics from the report compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:

• Change in non-farm payrolls: +235,000vs. +733,000 expected and a revised +1.053 million in July
  
• Unemployment rate, August: 5.2% vs. 5.2% expected and 5.4% in July
  
• Average hourly earnings, month-over-month: 0.6%vs. 0.3% expected and 0.4% in July
  
  
• Average hourly earnings, year-over-year: 4.3% vs. 3.9% expected and 4.0% in July
  

Following back-to-back months of non-farm payroll gains of more than 900,000, employers added back the fewest jobs since January. Still, this marked an eighth consecutive month of net job growth, and brought total employment closer to pre-pandemic levels. The unemployment rate also dipped further to reach a pandemic-era low of 5.2%, while holding above the 50-year low of 3.5% from early 2020.

“While I know some wanted to see a larger number today and so did I, what we’ve seen this year is a continued growth, month after month, in job creation,” President Joe Biden said in public remarks Friday morning. “This is the kind of growth that makes our economy stronger.”

The previous two months' worth of payroll gains were upwardly revised, however. July's payroll gain was upwardly revised to more than 1 million from the 943,000 reportedly during the previous month. June's job growth came in at 962,000 payrolls, up from the 938,000 previously posted.

As of August, the civilian labor force was still down by more than 2.9 million members since February 2020. And the economy has shed a net total of 5.3 million payrolls since the start of the pandemic, with these losses getting recovered at a sluggish pace compared to the swift drop in jobs during the spring last year.

One of the main factors contributing to the major miss on headline payrolls growth was a slowdown in hiring in the U.S. services sector, which had previously seen strong employment gains in the early stages of the recovery. Leisure and hospitality industries added zero payrolls on net in August after adding 415,000 in July. Education industries also contributed far fewer payrolls last month than during July, with private education roles rising by 40,000 in August while declining by 21,000 in government education. Government and private education together had added more than 200,000 payrolls in July.

Other areas of the economy saw stronger job growth, however. Manufacturing jobs rose by a better-than-expected 37,000 last month, with more than 24,000 of these comprising motor vehicles and parts jobs after months of supply and labor constraints.

For the labor market at large, one of the biggest concerns has been around bringing back jobs quickly enough to meet consumer demand and fill widespread vacancies among employers. As of the latest data, job openings were at a record high of 10 million in June, underscoring the supply and demand mismatches still present in the recovering economy.

"There are a lot of jobs but not necessarily a lot of desirable jobs," Peter Quigley, CEO of Kelley Services, told Yahoo Finance ahead of the release of Friday's jobs report. "And while employers are pounding the table wanting workers, workers are frankly taking their time, trying to figure out what jobs are the right fit for them. Job priorities have changed over the last 18 months.

"Employees are looking for something different. They're looking for flexible time. They're looking for remote opportunities. They're looking for enhanced stability in their job. They're looking for well-being programs," he added. "They're looking for up-skilling and career development opportunities. And of course, being in a safe environment and being in a welcoming environment."

And for investors, Friday's jobs report served as a critical piece of data informing the Federal Reserve's next move on monetary policy. Many Fed officials have suggested they are looking especially closely at labor market data to determine when they will formally announce and then begin tapering their crisis-era asset purchase program. Another stronger-than-expected jobs report could have signaled the economy had garnered enough momentum to further progress without the help of a highly accommodative monetary policy tilt.

"Even allowing for the fact that first estimates for August often disappoint on the downside, the extent of the slowdown in jobs growth all-but rules out any tapering announcement at this month's FOMC meeting and, if this weakness persists, then it could be pushed into early next year," Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist for Capital Economics, wrote in a note on Friday."

MY COMMENT

This is GREAT news for investors.....and DISMAL.....news for the economy. the drop in the unemployment number is not really good news just statistical chaff in how they calculate it and how many people are actively looking for work. the FREE MONEY continues to distort the labor markets.

NICELY......this number being WAY OFF should keep the FED dazed and confused for some time. they will jawbone and posture.....but I dont expect there to be any tapering till the first of the year........and I dont think tapering will matter in the slightest to the average investor anyway.

What I find interesting....as usual....is that the economists...the experts.....have absolutely no clue what is going to happen. They are ALWAYS wrong.....yet....we ascribe power over things to these people working in government, think tanks, and universities when they are really....MORONS. The number of times they are wrong....nearly always....defies all probability

 

I just about always agree with these Fisher articles and this one is no exception.

The Stock Market’s Rational Rise
Stocks aren’t out of touch with economic fundamentals, in our view.

https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/marketminder/the-stock-markets-rational-rise

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

In recent days, a new presumption has quietly gained steam: Rising stock markets, pundits warn, are increasingly detached from a faltering economic recovery. Sure, most flagship economic indicators are still doing well, but slowing real-time data (e.g., restaurant bookings), supply shortages and the ever-present Delta variant have forecasters on edge. The implication: Euphoric markets are ignoring bad news and in for a rocky road once they wise up. In our view, this misunderstands how markets work, and even if the recovery does take a breather for whatever reason, it doesn’t render all-time-high markets irrational.

For one, to presume stocks should do X if near-term indicators do Y misunderstands how markets work. Economic data, no matter how timely, are backward-looking. They reflect what happened last week, month or quarter, depending on the statistic. Markets, however, are forward-looking. They generally look about 3 – 30 months out. Their focus within that span isn’t the precise economic trajectory, but whether the economic and political landscape in general look likely to keep corporate profits generally better or worse than expected. If economic data in the here and now wobble a bit, that could very well rein in expectations, making it easier for reality to beat—and fueling stocks.

It is true, of course, bear markets often begin when euphoric investors overlook deteriorating economic conditions. But that is generally about forward-looking economic indicators, not coincident and lagging data. For instance, if stocks were notching new highs while the US and other major yield curves were inverted, the Leading Economic Index was dropping and the new orders components of Purchasing Managers’ Indexes were contracting, that would be a strong signal that it is time for investors to take a cold, hard look around them. It wouldn’t be a call to immediate action, as getting out of the market is perhaps the biggest risk you can take if you need stock-like returns to reach your goals. That is why we generally think it is beneficial to wait at least three months after a peak to take action, lest you move hastily and miss more bull market if you are incorrect. But that sort of disconnect is something we would think it wise to watch very, very closely during that three month window.

Today, it isn’t forward-looking indicators that have pundits worried. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index is rising. New orders continue piling up faster than companies can fulfill them—that brings some headaches, given supply chain issues tied to reopening and new lockdowns in Asia, but it does point to growth. Yield curves may be flattish, but they aren’t inverted globally. Simply put, today’s backdrop doesn’t look contractionary.

Then too, the things pundits cite as evidence of a weakening economy don’t really pass muster. Take the aforementioned restaurant bookings, which are down over the past month according to OpenTable. Real-time indicators like this were helpful in February and March 2020, as they gave the first look at how lockdowns were hitting commerce, but that was because lockdowns were so sudden and unexpected that everyone was left reeling and fumbling in the dark for data. Those conditions don’t really apply now.

Plus, the vast majority of these indicators aren’t seasonally adjusted. Late August is back-to-school season, and it seems fairly logical to us that with summer ending and school nights a thing again families would be going out less. We also have long thought economic growth was likely to slow once pent-up consumers unleashed that initial burst of stored-up demand. Why is always harder to pin down than what, but suffice it to say, we think it is a stretch to say the Delta variant is the only thing driving slower activity right now. Even if it is, the biggest economic impact came from the lockdowns implemented in reaction to COVID, not the virus itself. There remains little indication that a return to those dark days is looming, and fears otherwise have proven false since last summer.

As for the supply shortages, those will probably continue impacting factory output in the affected industries. The jump in shipping costs will also affect profits. But these issues aren’t brand new—they have been a thorn in the manufacturing sector’s side for months now. They are baked into earnings expectations. Therefore, it would be very weird if stocks didn’t already reflect them. Markets’ being at all-time highs while some businesses are having logistical problems doesn’t mean stocks are out of touch. Rather, we think it means they have assessed the situation and determined that profitability over that 3 – 30 month window won’t suffer as much as folks fear.

When in doubt, trust the market. If you can’t see a valid, forward-looking reason for trouble that no one else is talking about, then the overwhelming likelihood is that the reigning fears are false, extending the proverbial wall of worry bull markets climb."

MY COMMENT

Now that is a great statement....."when i doubt trust the markets". this should be the mantra of every long term investor. In other words dont let the short term events cause you to doubt yourself. We are at the start of a LONG re-opening process. Most of the world has barely started to re-open.....this has an impact on our businesses. The WHOLE PROCESS is going to take 1-2 YEARS.

Consider that we have just reached the point....this week....where people are no longer going to be paid to stay at home. The economic reopening is basically starting today.

 

Speaking of the end of the FREE MONEY benefits.

A Natural U.S. Labor Market Experiment Commences Next Week

https://www.realclearmarkets.com/ar...et_experiment_commences_next_week_792713.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"A natural experiment in the US labor market commences next week as pandemic benefits (including pandemic unemployment insurance) are scheduled to end on Labor Day.

The US labor market suffered a terrible shock from the COVID19 pandemic in early 2020, and experienced a remarkably rapid initial recovery — a snap back of unprecedented speed and magnitude. Curiously, however, the return to pre-pandemic employment rates seemed to stall out last fall. While employment rates for men and women 20 and over remain below their Great Recession nadir, they have risen only by a mere one percentage point since October 2020.

Yet, while no one was vaccinated in October 2020, today, thanks to the advent and rollout of three highly effective coronavirus vaccines over 60 percent of the US adult population — over 160 million men and women — are fully inoculated. So what is constraining the return to paid work?

It does not seem to be a demand side problem — i.e., a lack of disposable income on the part of consumers. Far from it. Thanks to emergency measures during the pandemic, US disposable income has never been higher than during the pandemic. It remains decidedly above trend even today, thanks to extraordinary and continuing government transfer payments originally intended to prevent an economic collapse.

Part of the original intention of the government’s stimulus program was to protect financially vulnerable households and to keep the economy from crashing. This brought about apandemic unemployment insurance program that did not require its beneficiaries to be technically unemployed. From the end of World War II to 2020, America always had more unemployed individuals than recipients of monthly unemployment insurance benefits. That situation flipped in 2020: we now have consistently more unemployment insurance recipients than unemployed workers. Last month alone, over 3 million more people received benefits than those who were out of a job and looking for work. In other words, current policy is paying millions of nonworking people unemployment stipends as if they were unemployed, and as if there were no work to be had.

This despite the fact that currently in America, work is going a-begging anywhere one goes, and employers are short-handed and desperate for more paid help. According the US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, America has never had so many unfilled positions: over 10 million open slots as of June 2021. (Many millions of these jobs, we may note, are for occupations that do not require more than a high school diploma, if that.) Note also that since October 2020, when US work rates began to stall, openings for jobs in the USA have shot up by over 3 million. And yet, while America is awash with unfilled jobs, the work rate (employment to population ratio) for a key component of the US labor force, prime age men 25-54 years of age, is lower today than it was in 1940—at the tail end of the Great Depression.









These charts suggest that our current labor market problems reflect unintended consequences of government policy. We seem to face a supply side constraint that may have been exacerbated by transfer payments — including payments to working age people who are currently neither working nor looking for work. Have these policies caused long-term changes in expectations and attitudes about work in modern America? We are about to find out."

MY COMMENT

Thank goodness we are about to find out. See the original article for the charts that tell the story. WELL....I got some of them to post but there is at least one duplicate. Good enough for me today. I will check in toward the end of the day and see how things are going. I am now crawling back into my cave.

 

Hey oldmanram....seems like the wife is winning all the time....or is it just my faulty memory of your results? Unfortunately your sarcasm will probably be true. People will start to scramble about a month after when that next check does not show up......and they are running out of money.

TOTALLY agree TomB16......they are SO WRONG it defies all probability....either they are extreme MORONS (very likely).....or they are intentionally wrong for some AGENDA that takes priority for them (also very likely).

 

I had a nice green day today and a surprising moderate gain. Seven of my ten stocks were up for the day. My losers at day end were Nike, Microsoft, and Honeywell. I got in a nice beat on the SP500 by .34%.

 

Well other than the DOW....a nice green week for the markets. AND......the NASDAQ 100 has taken the lead in year to date return....seems like it has been lagging the SP500 and even the DOW for much of the year. BUT....all the averages are having a KILLER year.

DOW year to date +15.56%
DOW for the week (-0.24%)

SP500 year to date +20.75%
SP500 for the week +0.58%

NASDAQ 100 year to date +21.45%
NASDAQ 100 for the week +1.42%

NASDAQ year to date +19.21%
NASDAQ for the week +1.55%

RUSSELL year to date +16.06%
RUSSELL for the week +0.65%

It will be an interesting race to the end of the year for the averages. I am sure the leader will change many times.

 

Here is how the day and the week ended.

Stock market news live updates: Stocks mixed, Nasdaq sets record close after August payrolls disappoint

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-september-3-2021-221534459.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Stocks were mixed on Friday following the release of the Labor Department's August jobs report, which showed a sharp deceleration in hiring last month amid the Delta variant's latest spread.

The S&P 500 traded near the flat line after reaching record intraday and closing highs just a day earlier. The Nasdaq edged higher to set a record close as investors piled back into technology and growth stocks seen as more defensive in a decelerating economic growth environment. The Dow, a proxy for cyclical and reopening stocks, fell slightly.

Investors were closely watching the government's monthly jobs report. Non-farm payrolls increased by a disappointing 235,000, decelerating from the more than 1 million job gains posted during the previous month, though the unemployment rate ticked down to a fresh pandemic-era low of 5.2%.

The report was consistent with the deceleration evident in other economic data as well, including in retail sales, consumer confidence, and manufacturing- and service-sector purchasing managers' indices.

Importantly for traders, the jobs report will be the final major labor market datapoint officials at the Federal Reserve receive before their next policy-setting meeting later this month. Members of the Federal Open Market Committee have signaled they are looking especially closely at labor market reports for signs of whether the economy has improved enough to warrant less accommodative monetary policies.

Namely, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in public remarks last week that, “If the economy evolved broadly as anticipated, it could be appropriate to start reducing the pace of asset purchases this year." This would set off the process of removing one key element of the central bank's crisis-era toolkit for supporting the economic recovery, and which has also served to underpin equity prices.

“What we’re seeing is the market really trying to wrestle with the idea of what matters to it more: Is it about the economy, or is it about monetary policy?" Steve Sosnick, chief strategist of Interactive Brokers, told Yahoo Finance Live on Friday. "Now, we’ve been in a monetary-driven market for so long it’s hard to say that monetary factors aren’t at the forefront of the market’s mindset right now."

"But what I think we may be seeing here … we can’t really figure out whether this delays tapering in a meaningful way," he added "But there’s stuff in here that is not necessarily bad other than the headline number. Wages are good, the unemployment rate is good.”

Namely, equity traders were looking for an August jobs report that was still solid, but not too strong relative to consensus estimates.

"The setup for equities especially is a unique one because markets have continued to rise and continued to show a lot of resilience in the face of some waning economic data," Dave Mazza, managing director for Direxion, told Yahoo Finance. "All of that is not necessarily a great sign, but markets continue to do well because we're in an environment where some of this bad news is actually good news from the market perspective."

Still, on the whole, strategists largely remain upbeat about the pace of the U.S. economic recovery and the backdrop for domestic stocks. While lingering questions remain over the virus and future monetary and fiscal policies, the market has so far looked through these concerns to reach all-time highs.

"We're continuing to see ups and downs with Delta, but aside from those changes in sentiment at the margin, the bigger picture is that we still have a self-reinforcing recovery," Rebecca Patterson, Bridgewater director of investment research, told Yahoo Finance. "We're seeing companies flush with cash, we're seeing a huge amount of demand that was obviously pushed higher thanks to all the fiscal and monetary stimulus over the last year, companies trying to meet that demand, hiring, being forced to lift wages. As the consumer gets higher wages and jobs, they have more ability to spend."

"At the end of the day, it’s the very easy monetary policy, the fiscal still flowing through, and this positive flywheel of businesses and consumers reinforcing each other that’s helping to lift the market," she added.

12:00 p.m. ET: What economists are saying about the August jobs report
Friday morning's disappointing payrolls report suggests the economy has lost some momentum given the latest wave of the coronavirus, many economists pointed out. And for investors, the print also points to a potentially more drawn-out timeline for the eventual announcement and beginning of tapering from the Federal Reserve.

Here's what some economists had to say about the jobs report, based on emails and notes sent to Yahoo Finance:

• "Many people believed that the Fed would announce their taper plans at this month’s FOMC meeting and that is no longer likely. Instead, the Fed is going to need to wait to see further improvement in the job market and may not be able to announce their taper plans until the November meeting." – Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Independent Advisor Alliance
  
  
• "There are clear signs that the recent in the Delta variant played a key role in the weakness in the labor market. The number of workers working from home increased in August for the first time since the turn of the year when the economy stalled amid the winter COVID wave ... This supports our view that the Fed will not announce taper at the upcoming September meeting." – Joseph Song and Michelle Meyer, U.S. economists for Bank of America
  
  
• "The economy is no longer pumping out as many new jobs and has passed the peak rehiring stage of the labor market recovery from the pandemic as most of the easy jobs for employers to fill have been completed and the Delta variant put the kibosh on new hiring at restaurants and hotels. Fed officials are unlikely to see this as a win for their maximum employment goal and this means the odds of a tapering announcement at the September meeting have gone way down and the stock market can breathe easier because the money priming the economy’s pumps will continue to flow." – Chris Rupkey, chief economist for FWDBonds
  
  
• "Although the labor market didn't lose ground, we certainly didn't make up much ground either. When you dig into the numbers, there are some predictable declines in retail trade as back-to-school season is upon us but a complete stall in hospitality jobs, after adding 350,000 per month for the last half-year, presents a clear story that consumer demand is beginning to wane." – Jason Reed, assistant chair and professor of finance at the University of Notre Dame's Mendoza College of Business"
  

MY COMMENT

Just as tapering will be a NON-ISSUE....I dont think there has been any impact from all the spending and stimulus for a long time now. It is just money down a rat-hole. Paying someone to stay home or based on how many kids they have is NOT having any impact on the actual economy at all.....at least...."NET IMPACT". My view........same with the markets......none of this stimulus spending is having any impact anymore at this point.....on the REAL economy....perhaps for the big banks...but that is about it.

 

Thank GOD it is the weekend now....this little bit of posting wore me out. I am now heading back to bed.

 

Good job gtrudeau88 you seem to have hit on a style that works for you and are doing well. You made that transition from active management and have probably done just as well or better. That is a MASSIVE gain for.....one week

 

One thing about Amazon....they do their own thing and do not let the stock price drive what they are doing.....and they appear....at least so far....to look out very far into the future when it comes to setting up capital assets and planing for future growth. Here is a good example.

Amazon Plans to Add 40,000 Workers to U.S. Corporate Ranks

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amazon-plans-add-40-000-135741385.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"(Bloomberg) -- Amazon.com Inc. says it plans to add more than 40,000 people to its corporate ranks in the U.S., a hiring spree the company is calling its biggest-ever recruiting and training event.

The world’s largest online retailer and cloud-computing company said in a statement that it plans to hold a career fair Sept. 15, continuing a pattern in recent years of inviting job seekers en masse to learn about the company’s open roles. Amazon didn’t specify where the positions would be located, but the company’s job posting site on Wednesday listed Seattle, Arlington, Virginia, New York, Bellevue, Washington and Sunnyvale, California, with the most open roles.

Amazon employed 950,000 people in the U.S. at the end of June, out of 1.3 million worldwide. Most of those people work in the company’s massive logistics division, primarily in the warehouses that store and pack items.

The company’s ranks have swelled during the pandemic, as stay-at-home orders made the case for online shopping. Former Chief Executive Officer Jeff Bezos earlier this year pledged Amazon would focus more on the welfare of its workers, a statement that followed an unprecedented union drive in the company’s warehouse ranks and activism among corporate employees at its Seattle headquarters.

Amazon shares were up about 1% Wednesday morning in New York."

MY COMMENT

For many many years people in the media and investors bitched about the company not making money. Well they were making money....but they were just PLOWING it back into the business. That does not seem to have changed. AND....so far all that investment in the company has paid off big time. As a shareholder you just have to trust that they know their business and what they are doing.......at least until they show otherwise. They have GUTS as a company.