The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    sorry to hear about your troubles, zuk. hang in there. on a different topic could somebody tell me how much skin in the game janet yellen has?

    ----

    Yellen urges Congress to lift debt limit, warns cash, extraordinary measures to run out in October
    Today 9:42 AM ET (MarketWatch)

    Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Wednesday again urged Congress to "protect the full faith and credit of the United States by acting as soon as possible" to suspend or raise the federal borrowing limit. In a letter to Congressional leadership, Yellen said Treasury estimates it's most likely that "cash and extraordinary measures will be exhausted during the month of October," and a delay "would likely cause irreparable damage to the U.S. economy and global financial markets."

    -Victor Reklaitis

    (END) Dow Jones Newswires

    September 08, 2021 09:42 ET (13:42 GMT)

    Copyright (c) 2021 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
     
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  2. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    Thank you Tom16.. it’s really sad, we all pray for those families that had a loss of life and had lost their houses/places of dwellings as a result of this nightmare. Driving through our neighborhood is very very sad… furnitures and cars tossed to the side of the streets waiting to get picked up by sanitation workers…. Constant and massive construction units in every block…. Moving trucks… this is what little suburban towns like Bayside, Flushing, Whitestone and the likes look like at the moment. I am blessed to have clients and a property manager who have showed initiative and came together and actually helped defuse this hell of a storm.
    If you read my posts in here you probably know how dissatisfied I am with NY and how thankful I am to manage to get out of there and start a new life in a different state… but the one thing that you likely won’t find anywhere in the world are the great passionate people that live there. I treasure my friendship with every one of my friends, colleagues, peers from NYC. They’re fucking amazing people!
     
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  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Glad that you have great people to rely on and support each other Zukodany.
     
  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I am siting in Lubbock Texas.....home of Texas Tech University Red Raiders and Buddy Holly. I will be in Santa Fe tomorrow and Taos a bit later in the week. So no way for me to check my portfolio without my random number token....which I will not use on hotel wifi. For security I will not even check accounts on my phone. I am assuming that I was in the RED today since the markets were.....trash.....today.
     
  5. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Yeah Emmett....that sort of fear mongering by Yellen is irresponsible and totally transparent. Nothing but political games and a big joke. A classic EMPTY SUIT.
     
  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    As to the old September MYTH.

    No, September Isn’t a ‘Bad Month’ for Stocks
    No month or calendar-based period is. Seasonality doesn’t move markets.

    https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/marketminder/no-september-isnt-a-bad-month-for-stocks

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Last week, the calendar turned to September, and with the flip came the usual warnings that September is the stock market’s worst month. This time around, the September caution started appearing in early August, with pundits warning seasonal volatility is sure to strike. Thus we bring you our annual reminder: Seasonal patterns aren’t predictive, and the calendar isn’t a market driver.

    As usual, the data supposedly supporting the sour September theses vary. Some cite the S&P 500’s average September return over the long term, -0.61%. Others allege corrections (sharp, sentiment-fueled pullbacks of -10% to -20%) tend to happen in September. One rather creative study averaged returns since 1950 when a new party is in the White House and—whaddaya know—found a modest September pullback. Research citing lunar phases and star alignments that average returns when Jupiter is in Aquarius probably isn’t far behind.[ii]

    To us, the notion of a bad September—or any “good” or “bad” calendar stretch—has long seemed very silly. Markets are efficient—they digest all widely known information near-instantaneously. The Gregorian calendar has been in use since the 16th century. Most everyone in the world has one on their wall, desk, computer and/or smartphone. We kind of think that meets the definition of “widely known”? To the extent September ever had any predictable negativity, markets would have priced it in decades ago, erasing its psychic powers. Traders would have quickly front-run it out of existence.

    September’s average return, which is the S&P 500’s worst and only negative calendar month, isn’t what it might appear to be, either. That is, it isn’t a sign September is usually bad. Averages are made up of extremes. In this case, a few extreme Septembers in the 1930s wrecked the average. Exclude these, and the average flips positive, 0.1%.[iii] That also happens to be the median September return even with those 1930s Septembers. This means an equal number of Septembers exceeded 0.1% as trailed it. A coin flip. September’s frequency of positive returns is 50 out of 94, or 53%. To be fair, that is behind the overall frequency of positive monthly returns (about 63%).[iv] But returns are still positive more often than not and land most frequently in the 0% to 5% range. Overall, to us, there just doesn’t appear to be anything inherently wrong with the month. Avoiding a month that is positive more often than not seems … weird.

    As for the other niche ways we have seen September sliced, the underlying data are similar. By our count, there have been 26 S&P 500 corrections since WWII. Of these, 14 excluded September, while 12 included it in full or in part—random. Five of them started in a September, which might come in handy at trivia night, while two ended then. But that isn’t a compelling indictment of September: If less than one-fifth of corrections started in September, that isn’t exactly a useful probability.

    Lastly, regarding that whole Since 1950, September stinks the first year a new party resides at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue thing, it is a sample size of nine. Five negative Septembers and—wait for it—four positive. Three of those negative Septembers happened during pre-existing bear markets as well as new Republican presidents, whose inaugural-year returns tend to be weaker overall as investors’ hopes for pro-business policy prove false. We don’t have that now—we have a first-year Democrat, whose inaugural years are usually above-average as investors’ fears of anti-market policy also prove false. That isn’t a forecast for September 2021, mind you, but it speaks to the broader point that context matters.

    Maybe this September adds another negative. Maybe it doesn’t. You can’t know today. But also, it doesn’t really matter, in our view. Thinking in terms of bad months versus good months is just myopic. A month is highly unlikely to prove material in the broad context of an equity investor’s time horizon. It also isn’t helpful when you consider markets are cyclical and subject to short-term volatility. Bear markets don’t arrive willy-nilly—they arrive when euphoric investors ignore creeping fundamental deterioration or when some huge, unseen, negative wallops stocks before sentiment finishes climbing the proverbial wall of worry. If you want to try to avoid some of a bear market’s decline, these are the conditions to look for. Corrections and pullbacks, by contrast, start and stop for any or no reason. But neither bear markets nor corrections run on schedules. We think they are impossible to time precisely and repeatedly, which makes enduring them part of the toll people pay to ride stocks’ marvelous long-term returns.

    Trying to avoid volatility by sitting out September may save you a small negative return if you are lucky.[v] But it might also cost you missed returns, plus transaction costs and tax headaches. Given September is positive more often than not, in our view, the risk/reward tradeoff here just doesn’t make sense. So, we recommend sitting tight and tuning down the September chatter."

    MY COMMENT

    How insanely ridiculous.....ascribing market behavior by the calendar month. A total MYTH. If you followed all the various market myths....you would be out of the markets for at least half the year. As you can see above the average September is.....ACTUALLY....likely to be positive......unless.....you believe in the power of a couple of extreme market years back in the 1930's to have impact on the markets 70+ years later.
     
  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Investor behavior and psychology are important topics for the typical investor to understand. For ME.....this post and the others that I have done over the past 25+ years keep me psychologically honest with myself.

    Investor overconfidence linked to selective memory
    Investors inflate their wins, forget about their losses.

    https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/09/investor-overconfidence-linked-to-selective-memory/

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "There's extensive academic literature on the risks faced by investors who are overly confident of their ability to beat the market. They tend to trade more often, even if they're losing money doing so. They take on too much debt and don't diversify their holdings. When the market makes a sudden lurch, they tend to overreact to it. Yet, despite all that evidence, there's no hard data on what makes investors overconfident in the first place.

    With the cost of going wrong, you'd think that people who risk money in stocks would learn from their past mistakes. But a new study suggests that our memory's tendency to take an optimistic past gets in the way, with people inflating their gains and forgetting their losses.

    Selective memory
    The lack of real-world data is a bit surprising, considering there are a number of reasons to suspect a happy nostalgia might be involved here. There's previous research that shows college students remember their grades as being better than they actually were. Other research shows that people quickly forget their actual cholesterol levels and remember tests as indicating a healthier one.

    The two researchers behind the new work, Daniel Walters and Philip Fernbach, suggest that two processes might be involved in building a happy nostalgia about past investment performance. The first is what they call distortion, which you can think of as retroactive optimism. People think their prior trades did better than they actually did. The second process involved is selective forgetting, where trades that went poorly don't get remembered at all.

    To look into whether these were actually at play, the team did a couple of experiments in which they recruited people who had invested within the past year. They asked these investors to recall how they did. These memories were then compared to the actual performance based on financial records. Prior to the record check, the participants were also asked if they intended to trade again in the near future, and whether they expected their holdings to outperform the wider market.

    The differences between memory and reality weren't dramatic, but they were consistent. When asked to recall a trade, the average person in one experiment reported it as yielding a 44 percent profit; reality showed it was 40 percent. When asked for a second, the difference was even wider: 41 percent in memory, 34 percent in reality. In another experiment, participants were asked to write down their 10 biggest trades of the last year. People tended to forget to list losses about 40 percent of the time, while gains only slipped their memories 30 percent of the time.

    In all cases, the faulty memories tended to be linked with a higher interest in future trading, along with a greater optimism about the ability to beat the market in the future.

    Memory as a warning
    To follow up on this potential connection between memory and overconfidence, the researchers took memory out of the equation. They simply asked people to look up the two most significant trades they made in the last year, which should cause them to go over all of their recent transactions. A control group was asked to look up something irrelevant. All of these investors were then asked the same questions about confidence in returns and intention to invest.

    Seeing their actual performance tended to inject a note of caution, reducing the investors' expectation of future returns, and dropping their intention to trade in the near future compared to the control group.

    Walters and Fernbach are clearly aware that there's more to overconfidence than selective memory—they note, for example, that at least some of these results could be explained simply by people wanting to make themselves appear successful and confident. And some of these other factors could play a larger role outside the context of a research experiment. Still, there seems to be a real effect here, and a selectively optimistic memory has been seen in other areas of human behavior.

    In fact, in a lot of situations, people are advised not to get hung up on poor past performance. If you search for the phrase "don't dwell on your mistakes," you'll find a large collection of pages advising you to do so, along with a large collection of images of self-help slogans. A variant of the idea—be a goldfish—even made its way into a popular TV show. Maybe it's time to put an asterisk on it to alert people that it may not apply to investing."

    MY COMMENT

    YES......your BRAIN and human genetic based behavior will.......SCREW........you every time. Up one side and down the other. That is one reason......the primary reason being I simply repeat what works for me.....that I do the same things as an investor in the same way over and over and over. BUT....personally I dont have a lot of problem with this behavior based "stuff" in my investing. By nature I am VERY CLINICAL person and an observer of human behavior. Unfortunately the personality traits that make me a very probability based clinical investor.....dont contribute to having a sterling personality in day to day life. LOL
     
  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    HERE IS the market picture for today.

    Stock market news live updates: Futures dip after Dow, S&P log 3-day losing streak

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...tes-september-9-2021-221833102-223258681.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Futures dipped in Wednesday's after-hours session, pointing to a lower open on Wall Street, with investors struggling to reconcile a still hot jobs market with an economy that's seen its momentum dented by soaring COVID-19 infections.

    On Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 Index posted their 3rd consecutive day of losses, and the technology-laced Nasdaq fell for the first time since last week. The market has mostly taken disappointing news in stride, but August's jobs data falling far short of market expectations last week tempered hopes for the fourth quarter.

    On Wednesday, two releases underscored how investors are trying to calibrate a jobs market that remains historically hot against growth that's clearly losing momentum, based on the resurgence of COVID-19 infections led by the Delta variant.

    The U.S. economy "downshifted slightly" in August as concerns grew over how the renewed surge of coronavirus cases would affect the economic rebound, the Federal Reserve said on Wednesday in its latest Beige Book.

    Separately, however, Labor Department data showed that open jobs hit yet another series record, with workers quitting their jobs en masse, and nearly 11 million positions unfilled. On Thursday, jobless claims, which last week set a new pandemic-era low, will give markets more grist for the mill.

    That data contrasted sharply with August payrolls, which showed the economy creating a relatively slim 235,000 new positions, and stoked speculation that the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) could alter its timetable for scaling back its stimulative bond-buying, which has propped up investor confidence.

    The uncertainty has prompted analysts to scale back expectations for the economy for the remainder year. Goldman Sachs cut its forecast for fourth-quarter growth, citing a "harder path ahead" for consumer spending in the face of rising COVID-19 infections.

    However, Wall Street does not appear overly-concerned, at least for now, given that stocks are still within view of recent highs.

    Economic news and the future direction of the stock market don’t have to be riding in the same car,” Hennessy Funds portfolio manager Josh Wein told Yahoo Finance Live on Wednesday. “The market remains incredibly compelling notwithstanding a lot of noise.”"


    MY COMMENT

    YES.....noise, noise, noise.....blah, blah, blah. WITH....the primary NOISE MAKER being YELLEN. Janet Yellen and this administration seem to have the magic touch for TANKING the markets. These people are EXTREMELY UNAWARE of what and how they are saying things.....and....the potential impact that their "pronouncements" might have on the markets. OR....they just dont care.

    The article above OMITS the PRIMARY reason for the markets being down today....the INABILITY of JANET YELLEN to keep her big mouth shut. FORTUNATELY....this sort of stuff has a shelf life of about one of two days in terms of impact on the markets. It is useful and relevant to the short term traders...and that is about it.
     
  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Yeah....the poor labor markets are a real mess from the economic closure and the erratic re-opening.

    The labor market still 'as tight as a drum' despite Delta-driven slowdown: Morning Brief

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-...te-delta-variant-morning-brief-091042733.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "The current state of economic play can be accurately summarized using an artful (at least I’d like to think) paraphrase of Winston Churchill. In 1939, the historic wartime leader famously described Russia as "a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma."

    On Wednesday, two key economic releases basically showed us how COVID-19 has essentially transformed the U.S. economy into a riddle of its own — but this one’s wrapped in a sizzling hot jobs market inside a pandemic.

    With the market struggling to recover from last week’s payrolls disappointment, the Labor Department (ahem) JOLT-ed trading with July’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).

    Despite Wall Street’s hand-wringing over growth, the JOLTS data revealed that the labor market has literally never been hotter, with nearly 11 million unfilled jobs across the world’s largest economy, a series record.

    Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book — a semi-regular temperature reading of the U.S. economic activity — found that growth “downshifted slightly” last month as a resurgence of COVID-19 infections took a toll on dining, travel and tourism. Nevertheless, business activity is still being defined by inflation, worker shortages and supply bottlenecks.

    Taken together, the two releases underscored that, as the Delta-variant driven surge of infections becomes the meta-narrative for growth, the economy has learned to adapt. In fact, certain sectors (like technology, revived in part by the “stay-at-home trade” helping to curb the Nasdaq’s (^IXIC) recent losses) are actually thriving.

    In a research note, veteran Wall Street economist Chris Rupkey at FWDBONDS came in from the top rope by calling this economic dichotomy “the strangest recovery from any recession” he’s ever seen as a professional economist.

    Rupkey, a critic of the Fed’s ultra-accomodative monetary stimulus, said that the JOLTS data “tells us the labor market is tight as a drum with the demand for labor the highest in history.”

    [​IMG]
    Demand for jobs remains stratospheric, JOLTS data suggests.
    ING noted that while some of the vacancies noted in the JOLTS data may have evaporated last month, “this report still suggests the appetite to hire is incredibly strong.”

    The bank also reaffirmed a theme that’s become part of the post-nonfarm payrolls analysis: job creation is petering out simply because employers already have too many open jobs they can’t fill.

    With approximately 50% of small businesses having unfilled positions, “the weakness [in payrolls] is primarily due to a lack of workers being willing or able to take the jobs available and [has] little to do with any perceived lack of demand,” according to ING.

    The JOLTS data also has implications for soaring prices — expect things to get worse before they get better, because employers feel compelled to continue hiking pay. Pointing to a “quit rate” that shows employees leaving their old jobs in favor of new ones at an all-time high, ING said companies “no longer think purely about having to raise pay to attract staff but also need to consider raising pay for staff retention purposes.”

    To be sure, a seeming bumper crop of jobs may be cold comfort for workers in industries like bars, restaurants and retail shops, where job creation is clearly going the wrong way.

    However, it does suggest that — if workers so desire and if they have the requisite skills — they may be able to obtain employment in other sectors like construction, manufacturing and retail trade, where hiring remains robust."

    MY COMMENT

    Yes the conditions in the economy DEFY all past experiences and expectations. That is because there is NOTHING normal or natural about this economy. the shut down was abnormal and had nothing to do with economics......and....now the re-opening is an event that it TOTALLY DIVORCED from economics as we know them. ADD in the government benefits and manipulations and you have a NEVER BEFORE situation.

    As usual......it is just going to take time to SHAKE this event and all the various side impacts out of the economy. As usual....my view is it is going to take a MINIMUM of 1-2 years to get back to whatever NORMAL is.
     
  10. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    HERE is how we start the day today. Lets hope the markets shake things off as the day MATURES.

    Stock market news live updates: Stocks curb losses after jobless claims hit new pandemic-era low

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...tes-september-9-2021-221833102-223258681.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)
    "Futures were pinned in the red on Thursday, pointing to a lower open for Wall Street's regular session, with investors struggling to reconcile a still hot jobs market with an economy that's seen its momentum dented by soaring COVID-19 infections.

    On Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 Index posted their 3rd consecutive day of losses, and the technology-laced Nasdaq fell for the first time since last week. The market has mostly taken disappointing news in stride, but August's jobs data falling far short of market expectations last week tempered hopes for the fourth quarter.

    On Wednesday, two releases underscored how investors are trying to calibrate a jobs market that remains historically hot against growth that's clearly losing momentum, based on the resurgence of COVID-19 infections led by the Delta variant.

    The U.S. economy "downshifted slightly" in August as concerns grew over how the renewed surge of coronavirus cases would affect the economic rebound, the Federal Reserve said on Wednesday in its latest Beige Book.

    Separately, however, Labor Department data showed that open jobs hit yet another series record, with workers quitting their jobs en masse, and nearly 11 million positions unfilled. On Thursday, new jobless claims set a new pandemic era low at 310,000, temporarily allaying fears about the economy.

    That data contrasted sharply with August payrolls, which showed the economy creating a relatively slim 235,000 new positions, and stoked speculation that the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) could alter its timetable for scaling back its stimulative bond-buying, which has propped up investor confidence.

    The uncertainty has prompted analysts to scale back expectations for the economy for the remainder year. Goldman Sachs cut its forecast for fourth-quarter growth, citing a "harder path ahead" for consumer spending in the face of rising COVID-19 infections.

    However, Wall Street does not appear overly-concerned, at least for now, given that stocks are still within view of recent highs.

    Economic news and the future direction of the stock market don’t have to be riding in the same car,” Hennessy Funds portfolio manager Josh Wein told Yahoo Finance Live on Wednesday. “The market remains incredibly compelling notwithstanding a lot of noise.”"
     
  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    LOL....once again I have no idea how I did today.....not that it matters. I was probably down today....just based on the negative markets....but I dont know. I am now in Santa Fe and am not going to check my account......on the road.

    the good thing.....my account as usual is on AUTOMATIC PILOT. there is nothing I need to know and nothing that I need to do....it simply operates on its own.....by itself. the WONDERS of long term investing.
     
  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Emmett likes to ask about YELLEN....what skin does she have in the game. I guess the same should be asked of the FED.

    Fed officials to sell stocks to avoid apparent conflict of interest

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-officials-sell-stocks-avoid-224555386.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "(Reuters) - Two Federal Reserve officials said on Thursday they would sell their individual stock holdings by the end of the month to address the appearance of conflicts of interest.

    Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan and Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren issued statements saying they would invest the proceeds of those sales in diversified index funds and cash savings and would not trade in those accounts as long as they are serving in their roles.

    The announcements come after the officials faced scrutiny over trades they made last year, according to their financial disclosure forms.

    In the forms, first reported by the Wall Street Journal https://www.wsj.com/articles/dallas...er-and-seller-of-stocks-last-year-11631044094, Kaplan disclosed he held a total of 27 investments in individual stock, fund or alternative assets that were valued at over $1 million each. He also made sales or purchases of at least $1 million in 22 individual company shares or investment funds, the report noted. The transactions included Apple, Amazon and General Electric.

    "While my financial transactions conducted during my years as Dallas Fed president have complied with the Federal Reserve’s ethics rules, to avoid even the appearance of any conflict of interest, I have decided to change my personal investment practices," Kaplan said in a statement.

    A separate report by Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...l-estate-was-active-reit-trader?sref=HFh69AJb highlighted that Rosengren held stakes in four separate real estate investment trusts and that he made multiple purchases and sales in those investments and other holdings while also being a vocal critic of the risks in the U.S. real estate market.

    In a similarly worded statement, Rosengren said his personal investments and transactions were in compliance with the Fed's ethics rules.

    "Regrettably, the appearance of such permissible personal investment decisions has generated some questions, so I have made the decision to divest these assets to underscore my commitment to Fed ethics guidelines," said Rosengren, who reaches the mandatory retirement age in June of 2022."

    MY COMMENT

    WELL....they sure are special for taking these steps. It is UNBELIEVABLE that these two and....how many others.....are investing and trading when they themselves are the.....ULTIMATE INSIDER INFORMATION. No they are not investing based on insider information....they ARE the insider information. It is INSANITY that these people are so OBTUSE that they can not see this OBVIOUS conflict of interest.

    Skin in the game.....of course they do. AND.....not only that they dont have the slightest clue that is might be a conflict. Not to even get into the......appearance of conflict.
     
  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Seems like many of the BIG BOYS are covering their bases at the moment.

    Morgan Stanley warns of a 15% plunge before year-end — protect yourself this way

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-warns-15-plunge-182700213.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)
    "COVID cases are surging while consumer confidence is plummeting. And the Fed is doing its best to cool the effects of inflation.

    All of that makes Lisa Shalett, Morgan Stanley’s chief investment officer of the firm’s wealth management division, nervous.

    In a recent call with investors, Shalett reiterated her confidence that the market is due for a major correction — between 10% and 15% — before the end of the year.

    Within that context, Shalett advised investors to rebalance their portfolios to favor financials, consumer staples, consumer services and health care — particularly companies that can provide a steady stream of income."

    MY COMMENT

    I LOVE the way these banks and other throw out these predictions. If hey happen to hit one right you never hear the end of it. The rest that turn out to be wrong....well you never hear anything about those. This lady has about as much of a CRYSTAL BALL as anyone else.

    I have indicated on here that the markets are past due for a correction and it might happen in September to October.......just for fun. If I am right....so what. If I am wrong....so what. It does not matter in the slightest because I am NOT going to do anything....correction or not. NOTHING will change in my PORTFOLIO MODEL

    BUT....these sorts of financial opinion makers that have clients hanging on their words......well it is INSANITY that they get out there and make these sorts of statements.
     
  14. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    As to the above....case in point...the TEN YEAR YIELD. Today it is at 1.299%. That is it. YES....still hanging out in the low end of the past 100 years of historical yields. REMEMBER all the fear mongering and professionals and media that dominated about 4-6 months ago? All the experts predicting that the yields were going to SKYROCKET. WELL....it never happened....and...it is STILL not happening.

    These people in the financial industry and all the so-called experts and professionals....dont have a clue. RELY on the stuff that they put out....constantly......AT YOUR OWN RISK. Actually....YOU.....are smarter than they are.
     
  15. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    WELL....here is a bit about what happened today.
    US STOCKS-Wall Street ends down after jobless claims hit 18-month low

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-stocks-wall-street-ends-202317682.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Sept 9 (Reuters) - Wall Street ended lower on Thursday after weekly jobless claims fell to a near 18-month low, allaying fears of a slowing economic recovery, but also stoking worries the Fed could move sooner than expected to scale back its accommodative policies.

    The Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 35,000 to a seasonally adjusted 310,000 for the week ended Sept. 4, the lowest level since mid-March 2020. That suggested that job growth could be hindered by labor shortages rather than cooling demand for workers.

    Microsoft and Amazon each declined about 1%, both among the stocks weighing most on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

    The S&P 500 real estate and healthcare indexes each fell over 1% and were the poorest performers of 11 sectors, while financials, energy and materials made modest gains.

    JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citi Group and Morgan Stanley each rose, tracking a slight rise in benchmark bond yields following the claims data.

    The problem with the market these days is it’s rotating more than it’s moving. Today, because of the jobs claims report, everyone is buying cyclical stocks," said Jay Hatfield, chief executive of Infrastructure Capital Management in New York. “We see it as a rangebound market, between 4,400 and 4,600 (on the S&P 500).”

    Investors have become more worried in recent sessions after a recent monthly jobs report showed a slowdown in U.S. hiring, suggesting the economic recovery may be losing steam faster than expected. Also dragging on sentiment has been uncertainty about when the U.S. Federal Reserve's will scale back massive measures enacted last year to shield the economy from the coronavirus pandemic.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.43% to end at 34,879.38 points, while the S&P 500 lost 0.46% to 4,493.28.

    The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.25% to 15,248.25.

    Lululemon Athletica soared 10% after providing a strong annual forecast, as demand for its yoga pants remains strong despite the easing of coronavirus restrictions.

    Reports that Beijing slowed down approval for all new online video games sent shares of U.S.-listed gaming stocks Activision Blizzard Inc, Electronic Art Inc, and Take-Two Interactive Software Inc down more than 1%.

    Digital Realty slid 5% after the data center REIT announced a public offering of 6.25 million shares.

    Volume on U.S. exchanges was 9.3 billion shares, compared with the 9.1 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.

    Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.03-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.12-to-1 ratio favored advancers.

    The S&P 500 posted 29 new 52-week highs and 1 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 67 new highs and 38 new lows. "

    MY COMMENT

    The markets are jumping around like a JUMPING BEAN. The good news.....this is short term stuff. One day it is because the economy is too soft...the next day it is too hot. No one has a clue....what or why the markets are doing anything.

    What we do know is....tapering is going to happen some time over the next 6 months. Interest rates are going to start to go up some time over the next year or more. NONE of this will have any particular impact on investors that have a time horizon of more than a month or two.

    We ALSO know that the re-opening is just starting to happen....and is going to escalate over the next 12-24 months. We also know that EACH of the past earnings periods has been EXCEPTIONAL......and...in my view they will continue to be so going forward.

    I personally......TRUST IMPLICITLY....the power and strength of the markets going forward....regardless of any pending corrections or even bear markets that might happen. In addition.....I trust and believe in the great silant majority of investors that ACTUALLY represent the GUTS of the markets. I dont think any of that long term money will dry up in the slightest.

    I continue to be fully invested for the long term as usual.
     
  16. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    For many months now I have been posting off and on about the MISTAKE of investing in Chinese companies......or I should say Caribbean shell companies....that serve as proxy for Chinese companies. Looks like i am NOW seeing some BIG TIME company.

    Wall Street's hottest investor is cooling on China

    https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/09/investing/cathie-wood-ark-china/index.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "London (CNN Business)Cathie Wood, the CEO of Ark Invest, is reportedly slashing her exposure to China, and switching to stocks that are in Beijing's good books.

    The Wall Street superstar revealed Thursday that her fund has significantly reduced its exposure to China amid sweeping regulatory changes that have made the investment environment riskier, according to a Financial Times report.

    "We have not eliminated our positions but we have reduced our positioning in China dramatically and we have swapped some of our holders, which became losers, into companies that we know are courting the government with 'common prosperity'," Wood was quoted as saying.

    Wood told investors at a Mizuho Securities conference on Thursday that her strategy shift was prompted by a series of regulatory changes imposed over the course of a weekend in July by the Chinese government on the country's online education industry, the FT said.

    Authorities are now focusing on social issues and social engineering at the expense of capital markets, she added. CNN Business has reached out to Ark Invest and the conference organizers for comment.

    Wood's flagship Ark Innovation exchange-traded fund (ETF) surged nearly 150% in 2020 and helped turn her into one of Wall Street's hottest investors. Although it has underperformed this year, the fund still comfortably outstrips annualized returns delivered by the S&P 500 (INX) over the past five years.

    Wood becomes the latest high profile investor to raise red flags over China, where the ruling Communist Party has launched a widespread crackdown on private enterprise.

    On Monday, financier George Soros criticized BlackRock's (BLK) bullish approach to China, including the asset manager's recent launch of investment products in the country and its recommendation that investors triple their allocations to Chinese assets.

    "Pouring billions of dollars into China now is a tragic mistake," Soros wrote in an op-ed published by the Wall Street Journal, adding that BlackRock "appears to misunderstand President Xi Jinping's China."

    Companies in the tech, education and gaming sectors have faced an onslaught of new rules relating to data privacy and workers' rights in recent months.Beijing's tighter grip on businesshas rattled global investors,wiping trillions off the value of Chinese stocks and triggering fears about the future of innovation in China.

    Shares in Chinese gaming companies Tencent (TCEHY) and NetEase (NTES) sank on Thursday after Chinese authorities told the companies to "break from the solitary focus of pursuing profit or attracting players and fans." Last week, China barred online gamers under the age of 18 from playing on weekdays and limited their play to just three hours most weekends.

    To protect its returns, Ark Invest is focusing on companies that are "currying favor" with Beijing, Wood said.
    Its revised portfolio of China investments includes retail giant JD.Com's (JD) logistics business and Pinduoduo (PDD), which she said was investing heavily in the grocery sector and food supply chains.

    Wood said Ark Invest doesn't plan to "give up" on China, because the country is so focused on innovation and "inherently entrepreneurial."

    "We think they'll reconsider some of these regulations with time," she added,referring to the government.""

    MY COMMENT

    There is a very good reason that I ONLY invest in AMERICAN companies. It is also OBVIOUS why I will NEVER invest in a Chinese company.......in other words.....a company controlled by and directed by the worlds most brutal communist dictatorship.

    I believe it is a significant step back for Woods to NOW be avoiding many of the chinese companies. BUT....investing in other companies based on the fact that they are......."currying favor"....with the Chinese government is simply PLAYING with fire.
     
  17. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Well we are open....that is the victory for investors today.....so far. It is a mixed market. Where we end...nobody knows....but it will be an interesting day as usual.
     
  18. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Many people see dividend stocks as providing some measure of safety. Here is another way to look at them.

    The Dividend Divide
    There is a significant gap between dividends’ reality and how many investors envision them.

    https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/marketminder/the-dividend-divide

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)


    "With long-term bond yields down about half a percentage point from their early-2021 not-so-high highs, chatter has inevitably returned to high-dividend stocks as an alternative income generator. While 10-year US Treasurys pay a paltry 1.35%, the MSCI World High-Dividend Yield Index boasts a 3.44% yield, spurring an avalanche of headlines like “5 High-Yield Dividend Stocks for Healthy Income” and “6 Dividend Stocks With Big Payouts and Less Risk.” What better time, in our view, to explain once again why high-dividend stocks aren’t the magic solution to all your investing dilemmas?

    Dividends have long had the reputation as steady workhorses that churn out reliable payments while avoiding the brunt of the stock market’s occasional declines. If we were to hazard a guess, we would posit that this stems from days gone by, when dividend checks came in the mail, there was no CNBC or Internet, and tracking stock prices required a daily perusal of your newspaper’s Business section. That took deliberate effort, whereas the checks just showed up, giving the perception of stability.

    It is a quaint, comforting image—and wrong. We like dividends! But they aren’t special. They don’t add to returns. They aren’t even a return on your investment—they are a return of your investment. Every time a company pays a dividend, the exact dollar amount is removed from the share price. The company is basically slicing off a small piece of its total value and sending it to shareholders. It can be hard to see due to market volatility, but by rule, every time a stock pays a $1 dividend, the share price falls by $1.

    Dividends are an important piece of total return, and part of the reason is the cash payouts itself. However, the reinvestment of that cash and the subsequent return on it matters much more. That is what total return is: Price movement plus reinvested dividends. Accordingly, to accurately compare high-dividend payers and the broader stock market, you have to tune down your biases and objectively compare their total returns.

    Do so, and you will see high-dividend-paying stocks aren’t inherently superior to other stocks. Forgive the tautology, but stocks are stocks, period. They are all volatile from day to day, week to week, month to month and year to year. Bear markets hit high-dividend stocks and low- or no-dividend stocks alike. Sometimes high-dividend payers outperform the broader market. Sometimes they don’t. As Exhibit 1 shows, high-dividend payers have trailed the broader market quite badly since 2020 began, with the outperformance during last year’s short, lockdown-induced bear market a brief countertrend. Lest you think high-dividend stocks have special bear market powers, however, consider Exhibit 2, which compares high-dividend and broad developed stock markets since daily data begin at the end of 2000—high-dividend stocks took a disproportionate beating during the bear market that accompanied the global financial crisis in 2007 – 2009. That is also when several high-dividend-paying Financials companies cut payouts investors had taken for granted for eons. In other words, dividends and safety aren’t synonymous.

    Exhibit 1: High-Dividend Payers Have Had a Rocky Stretch

    [​IMG]
    Source: FactSet, as of 8/30/2021. MSCI World and MSCI World High-Dividend Yield Index returns with net dividends, 12/31/2019 – 8/27/2021. Indexed to 1 at 12/31/2019.

    Exhibit 2: Make That a Rocky Decade?

    [​IMG]
    Source: FactSet, as of 8/30/2021. MSCI World and MSCI World High-Dividend Yield Index returns with net dividends, 12/31/2000 – 8/27/2021. Indexed to 1 at 12/31/2000.

    High-dividend payers’ underperformance doesn’t mean they are inherently inferior. But neither are they inherently superior. They simply tend to have different categorical weights and concentrations in terms of geography, sector and style. As Exhibit 3 shows, compared to the MSCI World Index, high-dividend stocks are significantly underweight to the US and overweight Europe and the UK. This is largely because, as Exhibit 4 shows, the high-dividend realm is very light on Tech and Tech-like stocks and overexposed to Utilities, Health Care and Consumer Staples. These are all defensive- and value-heavy areas, making a high-dividend portfolio basically a play on defensive-and-value oriented stocks. Over the past 20 years, the MSCI World High-Dividend Yield Index’s return relative to the MSCI World Index has a correlation of 0.51 with the MSCI World Value Index’s return relative to the MSCI World Growth Index.[ii] A correlation of 1 is identical movement and -1 is polar opposite, so a 0.51 correlation means high-dividend and value stocks outperform in tandem much more often than not. That works out well when value does well, but not when growth is leading—and growth has led for the past few years.

    Exhibit 3: High-Dividend Paying Stocks Are Biased Toward Value-Heavy Countries …

    [​IMG]
    Source: FactSet, as of 8/30/2021. MSCI World High-Dividend Yield and MSCI World Index country weightings on 8/27/2021.

    Exhibit 4: … And Value-Heavy Sectors

    [​IMG]
    Source: FactSet, as of 8/30/2021. MSCI World High-Dividend Yield and MSCI World Index sector weightings on 8/27/2021.

    This is why we always encourage people to change their frame of reference when thinking about how to generate money from their portfolio. Too often, people think only of portfolio income, e.g., dividends and interest—a very limiting mindset. We think it is more beneficial to think in terms of simple cash flow instead—in other words, the total amount you need to withdraw each month or year. Then give yourself an array of options to generate that cash, including selling securities—a tool we call homegrown dividends. When you approach it this way, then it becomes much less about yield and much more about the rate of return you’ll need in the long run to minimize the likelihood of outliving your assets. You can manage for total return and capitalize on broad sector, country and style trends without being hamstrung by one arbitrary variable.

    If that sometimes includes a gaggle of high-dividend payers, great! But consider that a happy side effect, and don’t get too attached."

    MY COMMENT

    I agree that investors tend to get locked into certain mind sets and habits of thinking. I like the thinking above. From my experience the POWER of dividend investing comes from tthe.....REINVESTING.

    We know that a significant amount of the gains of the SP500 over the long term come from the reinvested dividends. that is what creates the compounding over the long term.
     
  19. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Nice to be done with this little NEGATIVE week. NOT a big deal....it happens.......and is usually meaningless in the long term scheme of things. I am.....VERY HAPPY.....to see the markets starting to come to term with what it means to invest in Chinese companies.

    Stock market news live updates: Wall Street ends 5-day losing streak; Apple sinks after Epic ruling

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-september-10-2021-223448555.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Stocks on Friday extended their losing streak to a fifth day, with investors growing more cautious about the COVID-19 pandemic's impact on the economy.

    President Joe Biden spoke with Chinese President Xi Jinping for the first time in months, provided modest comfort to investors early in the session. While little progress was made, the call highlighted how the world's two largest economies — which have a raft of differences on critical policy issues between them to work out — are still keeping the lines of communication open.

    However, after Bloomberg reported that the Biden administration may investigate Chinese subsidies — and their impact on the U.S. economy — stocks reversed early gains. The Dow shed nearly 300 points, while S&P 500 Index capped its worst streak since a 5-day slide that ended on February 22.

    "The Sino-American relationship is in disrepair, and today's call does not seem to change this," noted Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, in a morning note he entitled "frenemies talk, but progress elusive."

    He added: "The US appears to list actions it wants China to take, while China's demands seem minimalist: Quit demonizing it and respect its red lines. Yet its red lines strike at the very heart of the international order, such as its claims on most of the South China Sea and its aggressive provocative actions in the region," Chandler added.

    Meanwhile, data on Friday showed that prices paid by producers surged last month, as supply and labor strains exerted more inflationary pressure on the economy — showing how demand remains white hot and resilient, even in the face of COVID-19. The producer price index jumped by 0.7% last month, and skyrocketed by 8.3% through August, the biggest year-on-year advance since November 2010, after surging 7.8% in July.

    "At first blush it could raise some eyebrows that the market would shrug off the biggest producer price increase ever recorded, yet context is key," said Mike Loewengart, managing director of investment strategy at E*TRADE Financial.

    "Anyone who has bought pretty much anything recently knows that supply chain issues are widespread and inflation is real, so this likely won’t be too much of a surprise for the market," he added. "Keep in mind we’re still in the transitory period where the Fed is not inclined to budge on easy money policies."

    On Friday, “Fortnite” developer Epic Game’s antitrust lawsuit against Apple (AAPL) upended the mobile device maker’s tightly protected ecosystem over its booming App Store.

    The tech giant's stock tumbled by nearly 3% intraday after a decision issued by a federal California judge largely sided with Epic, issuing a permanent injunction against Apple’s App Store policies. The move opens the door for developers to offer customers third-party payment options in apps, and sent certain stocks that thrive on Apple's platform — like Roblox (RBLX), Zynga (ZNGA) and Spotify (SPOT) — on a tear.

    During Thursday's regular session, major benchmarks logged a 4th consecutive day of losses. Traders have been struggling to reconcile a seemingly hot jobs market with soaring coronavirus infections that have blunted the recovery's momentum. However, the slowing momentum also gives the Federal Reserve room to keep its foot on the monetary policy pedal, which has given stocks a boost.

    Yet playing in the background is the COVID-19 pandemic, where deaths and hospitalizations are soaring because of the more contagious Delta variant. President Joe Biden announced on Thursday a sweeping set of mandates designed to nudge hesitant citizens into getting vaccinated.

    Investors have been in a foul mood since August's jobs data fell far short of market expectations last week, tempering hopes for the fourth quarter and getting September off to a rough start.

    “You look at the markets and they’ve been amazingly calm and we think September is right for a pullback,” G Squared Wealth CFA CIO Victoria Greene told Yahoo Finance Live on Thursday. “We’re kind of in a purgatory.”

    However, at least 2 pieces of jobs data this week have painted a different picture than August's nonfarm payrolls. Labor Department data showed that open jobs hit yet another series record, with workers quitting their jobs en masse, and nearly 11 million positions unfilled. And on Thursday, new jobless claims set a new pandemic era low at 310,000, temporarily allaying fears about the economy.

    On Thursday, Biden ordered that all businesses with over 100 employees require workers to get inoculated or be tested weekly, and declared his intent to require all federal employees to get their shot. And a growing number of private employers are already imposing vaccine mandates, even as many push back return-to-office plans as the Delta variant rears its head.

    "We've been patient, but our patience is wearing thin," a clearly frustrated Biden declared, addressing the number of vaccine-resistant holdouts — many of whom have flooded hospitals around the country. "And your refusal has cost all of us."

    Wall Street economists have explicitly linked mass vaccinations to growth, and the president's move could also bolster expectations for the economy, and market sentiment."

    MY COMMENT

    The usual suspects in the market collapse today. The markets are STRONG but there is a limit to how long they can rise in the face of the constant barrage of negativity that is out there at the moment. The producer price data was NOT that significant.......mostly in line with expectations......but....at the moment it is the POLITICAL side of the mews that is hampering the markets.
     
  20. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    HERE is how we ended the week.

    DOW year to date +13.07%
    DOW for the week (-2.17%)

    SP500 year to date +18.70%
    SP500 for the week (-1.60%)

    NASDAQ 100 year to date +19.80%
    NASDAQ 100 for the week (-1.35%)

    NASDAQ year to date +17.28%
    NASDAQ for the week (-1.62%)

    RUSSELL year to date +12.80%
    RUSSELL for the week (-2.85%)

    The above data is for the FOUR days of the market that we had this week. At least ALL the averages were CONSISTENT.
     

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